Sticky Inflation is Hurting Housing 🏠🩹🤕

Inflation readings are looking sticky, and rates are rising. How will that impact housing? Will rates ever fall? If so, when?
Steven Thomas breaks down the latest trends in inflation, the Fed, and housing.
👉🏼"Housing Debrief" - Season 5, Episode 11👈🏼
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*The content in this video is accurate as of the posting date. This is not investment advice.
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[@aristotlekumpis7095]

Good information as always. People are spending money like it's going out of style. Unemployment needs to go up.

[@ReportsOnHousing]

There are definitely headwinds for the lower tiers of income brackets. Most homeowners refinanced or financed to lower rates, which allows them to spend. Keep in mind that they have fixed-rate low payments, and their incomes are rising annually. Wages are outpacing inflation.

[@christinafordrealtor7255]

Great info - thank you!

[@ReportsOnHousing]

Thanks, Christina!

[@OlafKilthau]

Great info!

[@ReportsOnHousing]

Thanks for watching!

[@RayFernandezSilva88Days]

Great report Mr. Thomas

[@ReportsOnHousing]

Thank you!

[@karlkooser]

Thank you!

[@ReportsOnHousing]

You're welcome!

[@robertantoniadis2257]

Short Sweet To The Point, Thank you Steve
Well Done

[@ReportsOnHousing]

Glad you enjoyed it

[@FrankCuzakis]

Thank you
For all good data
Inflation still to high.
Inflation need to be contain for a least 9 months before rates can come down
Today report by bankers
People are behind credit card payments for a third month.
Rent versus purchase needs to make sense
Home purchasing is no longer a stable investment. Not enough tax incentives to make $$$$ on interest and property taxes.
Rates will not come down most likely until end of year.

[@ReportsOnHousing]

See my reply to
@user-uf7nl9lo5f. The FED cannot wait for inflation to come down to target. They are currently too restrictive. According to expert economists, cutting on the way down is prudent, or the FED risks creating a recession. Waiting and ensuring the job is done causes a lot of damage, and the "soft landing" everyone is referring to turns into a "hard landing." They end up responding too late.
Purchasing a home and staying put is a wise choice, just as buying stocks and holding is wise. Long term, they always go up. Renting and waiting is not wise. Once rates drop, millennials will flood the market because affordability will dramatically improve, especially in high-cost states. More homes will also come on the market, but the increase in demand will outpace the increase in homes for sale. Prices will rise. Waiting means more buyer competition and rising prices.

[@user-uf7nl9lo5f]

Why does everybody think there’s gonna be a rake cut when inflation is going up?

[@ReportsOnHousing]

Inflation is no longer rising. The most accurate inflation gauge (FED’s go-to), PCE, has a core of 2.8%. The FED’s target is 2%. If you are referring to CPI going up 0.1%, it is mainly because CPI’s shelter component of Owners Equivalent Rent (OER) is the most ridiculous data point based on an outdated survey of homeowners. Who answers surveys anymore for FREE? The OER has been all over the place recently. The BLS actually did a webinar for economists and data nerds because they currently have eggs on their face. Their explanation did not help. Trend analysis shows that the direction of inflation is down, not up. With recent economic news and the ridiculous CPI print, investors went from three rate cuts to the belief there will be only two. They may be right. Why rate cuts? With a FED Funds Rate of 5.5% and inflation at 2.8%, they are too restrictive and ultimately can lead to a recession down the road. There are headwinds in the lower income brackets: low savings, nor more excess savings from pandemic stimulus checks, spiking credit card debt with high interest rates, and rising credit card and automobile delinquencies. Eventually, the economy will slow. It is not looking like a summer or fall slowdown versus a spring or summer slowdown.

[@user-uf7nl9lo5f]

Inflation has gone up for the last several months, that’s why the last report was such a big deal, it’s now the trend. And it’s increasing.

[@ReportsOnHousing]

@@user-uf7nl9lo5f, that's headline inflation. That's now what the FED cares about. They cannot control the volatility of fuel and food, so they look at core, which has trended DOWN for the past several months. CPI went up 0.1 for core for the first time, and it is basically because of OEM. PCE, the better indicator, which comes out next week, has continued to trend down for months. Markets like to overreact on the upside and downside. Investors are funny that way.