How Many of Each Type of Tank Does Russia Have In Storage?
Vložit
- čas přidán 6. 04. 2023
- Install Raid for Free ✅ IOS/ANDROID/PC: clcr.me/CovertCabal_Mar23 and get a special starter pack with an Epic champion ⚡ Kellan the Shrike ⚡
Check Out Project Owl on Discord
/ discord
For Business Inquiries - CovertCabal@Ellify.com
Amazon Prime 30 Free Trial - amzn.to/2AiNfvJ
Microphone I use = amzn.to/2zYFz1D
Video Editor = amzn.to/2JLqX5o
Military Aircraft Models = amzn.to/2A3NPxu
Military Strategy Book = amzn.to/2AaqwST
----------------------------------
Credits:
Footage:
Ministry of Defence of the Russian Federation
creativecommons.org/licenses/...
The NATO Channel
Ministry of Defence of Estonia
Department of Defense (US)
"The appearance of U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) visual information does not imply or constitute DoD endorsement."
KCNA - North Korea State Media
Music:
BTS Prolog - Kevin MacLeod - incompetech.com
Install Raid for Free ✅ IOS/ANDROID/PC: clcr.me/CovertCabal_Mar23 and get a special starter pack with an Epic champion ⚡ Kellan the Shrike ⚡
You should really make a Video for IFV's, APC's and Artillery.
Why do you not mention the fact that they are producing 125 tenks pr month?
And the tanks out of storage are more likely being upgraded than sendt directly to the front...
Gayd Shadow Losers strikes again. If this game were any good, why would they need to push it so hard? *SCAM*
@@111076tom
Source?
125 This would be cold war production Level. Impossible to achieve without the Soviet industry and sanctions.
They are maybe restoring and upgrading 125 Tanks per month. Also there upgrades are worse compared to pre-war level.
@@naponroyit's not a scam, it's just another pay to win mobile game. Satellite footage is very expensive and they pay youtubers well to promote it, so just ignore it. War Thunder is awesome btw if you're interested in good war games.
As someone who grew up in the cold war, the fact that a random youtuber can task a satellite that has enough precision to make an educated guess as to the type and condition of imaged tanks is either one of the most impressive or scariest things that I can imagine. And you should really do a colab with Perun.
Would 100% support the teamup w/Perun. Y'all are 2 of the best, and could pool resources.
Perun is a Ukrainian propagandist. No need to bring that dogma to this channel of objective analysis.
@@Oldsmobility98 your cope is so god damn hard and edgy, you should market it to the ruzz army, I heard they need weapons badly; also, wagner need good strong vatnik men ready for adventure!
As someone who also grew up in the cold war, I concur.
@@Oldsmobility98 Perun is a military economist, he says things as they are.
It's just amazing that we are living during a time when a private citizen can get a hold of military intelligence that 50 years ago would make generals piss their pants from excitement.
Well wait 20years and it will be way more scarier
@@Holuunderbeere You will be able to ask ChatGPT what's the US nuclear launch codes.
@Holunderbeere heck, wait 6 months and AI is gonna take over half the jobs in the world! My friend had Chat GPT write him a 20 page legal document contesting a will. Goodbye to the legal industry, where 99% of the time they just do research and write legal documents. Countless other industries too
Thanks the folks paying to win at Raid Shadow Legends for the satellite photo funding
@@Holuunderbeere In another 20 years we'll ask the then current version of ChatGPT to provide an estimate, and it will provide an accurate and easy to understand infographic.
Jaw-dropping intelligence gathering. You've literally done a whole department's work single-handed. Incredible job.
Hard to tell, really. I notice he says "ga-RODGE", which is not the most promising sign.😄
People don't make these channels alone, He will have researchers, Editors, 3D Artists, Quality control team.
And the sponsors of this video - the Pentagon :)
Salty vatniks and MAGAts strong in the reply section
Not really. Guy just said his data is unreliable and counting are pretty approximate cuz he often couldn't even decide if he sees a tank or something else.
The kind of work you’re doing is beyond amazing. I’m an 80s/90s kid, and the fact that you can now get these images , let alone commission a company to get them is unreal. Love your channel!
You should have a job as an intelligence analyst for the level of detail you’ve made into this project.
Yeah he does, and he should be president of the United States for the excellent leadership skills he has.
I've said it before and will say it again, if intel agencies aren't putting these videos in their briefings then they need to start
Never too late
@@jivakanl7387 so you are saying Covert Cabal is secretly Jack Ryan?
Maybe he is in the intelligence business you think the CIA will ever be caught lacking 😂😂😂
Great video! No baloney, straight to the point, a cool balance of facts and educated guesses along with a little bit of why... Thank you for sharing this information and for doing the nightmarish part!!😬
Love the content! I don't see too many Content Creators actually going into depth with research like this and explaining it. Most of the time, they just speculate and move on. So this kind of dedication is appreciated.
OK, hiring a satellite to take custom pictures is not something I expected from a YTer. Impressive.
Suchomimus (on YT) does it from time to time 👍
From countring aircrafts & choppers on RU airports, to RU naval port analysis, to covering interesting "behind the Russian lines" attacks etc
@@elektrotehnik94 yes but he takes publicly available satellite info and other info to do it. This is a little different as he specifically asked a satellite company to do this and paid for it with his own money for a video.
It's probably not as tricky as people think. We used to do it for high res plates for VFX shots as Google Earth and Bing aren't by default high res enough or commercially licensable. It can be a bit pricey though. Probably not as pricey as people think when they think "hiring a satellite" but more than what you'd expect for what is essentially a more detailed Google Earth image if you aren't particularly interested in them being super up to date.
@@elektrotehnik94 Both of them must have national security jobs.
@@SimoN-vf8ps What will the pigs do all day?
I don’t think I have ever seen so much work put into a 14 minute CZcams video. Truly impressive work.
Thank you! I'm glad the work paid off. It honestly had to be around 200 hours total. Half of it double, triple, and quadruple checking my work to make sure I didn't forget anything or miss something obvious
@@CovertCabal how many tanks did the Soviets keep under the ural mountains.
I believe the Russian MoD watches this video to get an idea of how many tanks they actually have in storage
Lolll
If I work for the Russian MoD, I would use any resource I can. This video is one of them. The Russia Federation is so huge, with so many depots spreading everywhere, nobody really knows how many tanks, trucks, APC, and artillery pieces are in working order. It will be a difficult jot to bring them together and in working order.
one thing is for sure the russians have more tanks than the collective west
No offense, but this is bullshit. We're speaking about less than 10k tanks, they should be able to count them. This is not a huge number. Just allocate 100 Ivans to check them, each of them needs to check just 100 tanks, say 1 per day, and they are ready in 100 days.
Funny, but probably true. 😁
As a former tank mechanic and systems technician, the one major issue, among many, is barrel droop. Gravity is a bitch on long tank main guns and nothing is immune to the effects of gravity. Tanks being stored that long will need to be totally overhauled including replacing the barrel for barrel droop. Those systems used to keep a tank in useable shape does nothing to mitigate barrel droop. A bad barrel will render the main gun inaccurate and useless regardless of how well it is stored and the pictures in the video show no attempt to prop up the barrels at all. I can say from experience changing out a barrel is a bitch. At the point of +/- 5,000 shots in the 120mm barrel of an M1A1 and M1/A2 is replaced to be refurbished and if the droop detector registers the barrel to be out of spec, it is also removed to be refurbished. If it is an M1A1 the tank is just sent to the factory for an upgrade to the M1A2 latest model. Just from a turret perspective, I hope Russia has a lot of spare barrels, main gun breach assemblies, race rings, and bearings. Along with many, many other parts. All those old tanks are good for, at this point, is for scrap steel. And whatever old ass crap they manage to get running and field are only good for being tank crew coffins! As any mechanic will say, if you let an engine, transmission, and trans axle sit too long, the fluids, grease, and oils will gum up and the seals will dry up or just rot or turn to goo as well depending on the material used to make the seal. I can go on and on, but I firmly believe all those older tanks in storage are just scrap at this point. Just speaking from experience. I feel pity for the crew for any old tank being put in the field to fight. For several reasons that I mentioned, your numbers are way too high in attempting to count serviceable and operational tanks that Russia can field.
I don't know if I enjoy that image at 4:04 per se, but I certainly appreciate what you had to do to get it. Keep up the good work and I for one, will keep watching.
You're probably the only youtuber I've seen that actively uses the revenue to provide us with more content,
You're a real gem Covert Cabal
You’ve never seen jerma985??
Mr Beast has left the chat
Torque Test Channel & Project Farm come to mind though he’s probably making more than he can put back in.
Russia NEVER said it was 800 t62
They said that they were going to modernise 800 tanks
Now t80, t 72 and t62 have been seen coing into that factory in the far east
Regarding the tank storage sheds, it would make sense to me that the tanks stored in those would have been the first tanks to be taken out and shipped to be upgraded or direct to front line units. If they're pulling tanks out of storage areas that have been sat in the open for years I'd be surprised if there are many left in those sheds.
But when you pull the good ones out of the sheds, you put the nicest ones outside in to the sheds...
Whatever, continue coping if you are so inclined. Russia is not even going to run out of tanks in storage before Ukraine runs out of Tanks, IFVs, artillery shells, AA systems and men as all of those things are already severely depleted.
@@skitidet4302 Don't think Ukraine is running out of tanks or IFVs. They just got a few hundred western IFVs and about a hundred modern western tanks recently. While artillery ammo is in short supply, the same is true of Russian equipment and storage.
Russia is likely to run out of tanks on the front line before it runs out of overall tanks due to simple production and refurbishment limitations. You can have 4,000 tanks, but if you can only refurbish 20-50 per month and are taking 100+ tank losses per month, eventually you won't have any left.
And Ukraine has more anti tank weapons than there are tanks in the world currently.
@@Amann0407 They seem to lose a couple hundred every month, so if they reservice a batch of 100 every 3 months, that means they are losing them 3 times as fast as they are getting them. There's also strong indication that they are very low on those things already since you for the most part see pure infantry actions that have to rely on civilian pickup trucks for mobility.
"And Ukraine has more anti tank weapons than there are tanks in the world currently."
Then where are they? In some kind of storage in Lviv or Kiev? Because you don't see that many at the actual front.
@@Amann0407 Also, anti tank weapons aren't even close to Ukraine's biggest problem because artillery is the MVP of this trench warfare and Ukraine consumes way more ammo than NATO can produce and they still shoot way less than Russia does.
To make things even worse, as of late, Russia has gained enough air superiority to start doing a lot of airstrikes to complement the artillery strikes, oh and Ukraine is running on fumes when it comes to medium and long range SAM missiles. Those things are probably connected...
@@skitidet4302 We have no indication that Ukraine is losing a couple hundred tanks every month. Confirmed losses is about 495 Ukrainian tanks versus 1937 Russian tanks thus far. Thanks to western supply of T-72s and Ukrainian captures of Russian tanks (which are higher than confirmed losses), Ukraine might actually have more tanks than Russia does on the battlefield now.
Where Ukraine is probably having issues is IFVs. Much of their force is BMP-1s and M113s, and no way was their pre-war force enough to outfit 700,000 Ukrainian troops. They need to expand like 3-4 times to get everyone mechanized. Russia also has the same problem.
And you are high. I saw a trench warfare video with 2 Ukrainians in a trench shooting off 3 or 4 RPGs in about 5 minutes. If a pair of Ukrainian troops are that well equipped in a hole in Bakhmut, then they got a fair bit of anti tank weaponry.
We also have plenty of evidence of Ukrainian hunter killer teams sneaking up on Russian tanks and blowing them up with Stugna's and Javelins. Keep in mind that anti tank weapons are often used in anti infantry roles like AT-4s and RPG-7s.
This is JUST the US aid to Ukraine btw.
www.state.gov/u-s-security-cooperation-with-ukraine/
Insane amount of work you put into your videos! Thank you!
Ложь. Автор рассказал что не знает.
The original news report in Russian originally said "800 vehicles", it did not say 800 T-62s. This got mixed up as other news outlets picked up the story.
it was said that 800 t-62s would be upgraded in 3 years
@@user-dl3nc4jx7k no i it was said 800 tanks will be upgraded in 3 years and T-62 was showed as an example of modernisation but it doesn't mean that all of them will be T-62.
Yeah a lot of people indeed get this mixed up, they would modernise 800 tanks in total, not only t62's, it would also be t80bv's > t80bvm's and t72b's > t72b3's
And some more upgrades
@@rafa-qq7xmyou are wrong, I watched a report on TV from a tank repair plant there it was clearly said that 800 pieces of T-62 will be upgraded in 3 years.t-62s are being upgraded only at one tank repair plant No. 103 in the Far East, because there is a t-62 storage nearby. This year 1500-1600 tanks will be produced and modernized in Russia (1500 tanks were named by Medvedev, 1600 tanks were named by Putin).These are all repair shops (where tanks are repaired and upgraded) and the Uralzavod in Nizhny Tagil, where tanks are also produced.
All types (T-72 B3М, T-80 BVM, T-90 M Breakthrough, and the remnants of T-62 (about 270 pieces per year))
Yes, a rather deliberate mix up to continue western public support. And even beyond the mix up, they are also making up stories on the reasons and how each tank will be used. I guess the mainstream media play on the fact few people actually understand how warfare on a Russian scale and doctrine actually works.
I'm very impressed with the dedication you have put into making this video. Keep up the good work!
Thanks for providing us a clear picture through the fog of war. It's amazing what you do. Thanks as well to everyone supporting the work you do, enabling us all to enjoy your incredible content.
People hate on t62 tanks but they do a great job of behind the line security like sitting at a checkpoint that wont see combat
9:45 it sems that the "800 T-62" news was missreported.
1. Andrey Gurulyov, former general/now politician, visited the 103rd Armored Repair Plant.
2. That repair plant was modernising T-62 at the time (you can find video footage of that visit and see the T-62).
3. Gurulyov announced that 800 tanks would be modernised at this factory over a time of 3 years, INCLUDING T-62. He did not say that ALL 800 would be T-62!
That said, the number was just one claim by one politician anyway. He might well have missunderstood it himself, exaggerated, or straight up made it up. Yet it was generally reported as a plain fact.
Thanks! I saw the video, and had it downloaded in case I needed it for this video... but never bothered to really look into what he said.
It sucks trying to pay attention to every tiny remote detail, just to miss something obvious like that! Haha
@@CovertCabal You would probably have lost count of the tanks. :) Great video btw.
@@CovertCabal you're doing the heavy lifting here, I really appreciate the video series!
Just wanted to add some background on that detail, now that we have an even better idea what distribution of tank types we're dealing with.
We appreciate the effort and hard work you and your team put in to create quality content! Keep up the great work!
Ok covert cabal. When I first looked at this video I decided I needed to come back and have a careful look with a clear mind. Now, 4 months later what I see is the following.
1. The Military Balance figure for 2023 has 1,800 in service, 5,000 in storage so 6,800 in total. And that's presumably after a year of attrition.
2. Your figures for 2022 (pre war, or sometime during 2022?) Good 4696, Bad 2,380 - this is not counting those not in storage. Timestamp 4:41
3. Your figures by type for earlier in 2023 (added up). Good 3,911. So 785 fewer "good" tanks. Timestamp 9:29
And then apart from some other minor issues, this is really the only useful figures I can extract.
So, we're back to the fundamental question: How many tanks did Russia have pre-invasion? Your 2022 figures are 4696 "good" tanks. In a previous video you came up with something like 2,800 active (iirc). Creating a baseline figure of 7,500 tanks. Subject to the caveat of when in 2022 this applies to The figures from the Military Balance (for 2023) are somewhat at variance, when you think about it. But not hugely so. To be honest, I think your figures are likely closer to the mark and Military Balance are still being a bit generous.
So what is the basis of the variance between your original video and this one? In the original video you had 6,000 tanks in storage in total and in this one it's 7,000 total. You also had 3,000 "good" tanks in the original video, now 4,696 "good" tanks in this video. Clearly the classification of good vs bad has shifted and I'm not entirely sure how you did this, though the social media pictures of the bases might have come into that. I'd submit that there are plenty of tanks that probably look good on the outside, but are suffering ageing (or theft) in ways that can't be seen. So I'm still sceptical of the overall good/bad ratio. I'm also basing this scepticism on the number of tanks that have been pushed around. Obviously seeing if they'll start, what bits are missing, then parts hunting.
What I'm going to do here is to accept that your total figures for 2022 (again, not sure if this is pre-war or not) as reasonably reliable. Along with the figure from the other video about the number of tanks in active service. So 10,000 tanks (7,000 storage + 3,000 active) of which "bad" accounts for at least 2,380, but again, I'm inclined to believe more are "bad".
In other words, we are looking at a baseline of somewhere around 7,000 recoverable tanks that Russia had pre-war. Give or take some uncertainties about the dates.
That compares to the 5,800 total usable tanks, which was my "take home" figure from your original video.
I have every reason to believe that Oryx is a substantial under-count. Oryx itself says this. In any case, the ratio of Russian tanks destroyed or captured, according to Oryx versus the tanks counted as taken off the Russians by the Ukraine Ministry of Defence has typically been around 1:1.9 but I think this ratio shrank a bit in recent months (haven't checked). As has been noted, not everything that blows up in Ukraine gets shared on social media. So I have reasonable confidence in the official Ukraine MoD figures. So let's proceed from there.
Now, what this means is that as of today (19th Aug 2023) Russia has remaining 7,000 - 4,332 = 2,668 tanks. The 4,332 is the official Ukr MoD figure.
In the last couple of months, the average rate of attrition for Russian tanks has been about 12 per day (since the start of the war, the average was 8, but it has gone up in recent months). At this rate of attrition, Russia will end up with zero tanks in 222 days. Now three more factors
1. Russian production of tanks. I believe its dozens per month, not hundreds. Against an attrition of 360+ per month. In other words, we hit zero in 266 days, not 222.
2. Attrition will climb as Ukraine breaks out and we see more manoeuvre warfare. The rate could double.
3. Russia doesn't need to run out of tanks for the situation to become critical. Hundreds, maybe closer to a thousand remaining. And I'm even this time ignoring the notion that Russia needs tanks in reserve for it's own territorial defence, because I think that Russia is now that desperate it would actually leave it's borders (and Moscow) poorly defended.
Bottom line:
2,000 more tanks will disappear in 120 to 180 days (depending on your assumptions including production). Yes, that's December to Feb. That may bring Russia to "critical".
We may even see signs of weakening, like more older tanks, during fall. We'll see.
Meanwhile I'm going to sit back and watch that tank counter tick over to 5,000 sometime in late Sep/early Oct and it'll get to 5,500 in mid to late Nov.
And meanwhile, the count of dead armoured vehicles has reached 8,410 and at current rate of attrition that will be 10,000 in November.
Russia can mobilise all it wants, but those fresh mobiks are going to have to walk.
Excellent.
One more future factor will be the proprtional time/work it takes to get stored tanks ready.
When reserves are called, the guys from the shop are first going to prepare those with the least problems before taking those with bigger maintenance needs.
That means, the more you draw on reserves, the longer it will take to get a tank ready.
Restoration of old vehicles is one thing. But the vintage tanks are still vintage tanks. Older technology. I’m not saying old equals rubbish. It’s just, they need modern thermal imagers and communications to be more effective. Or maybe Russia is just playing a numbers game and doesn’t care about technical effectiveness.
@@sullivanrachael installing new thermals isnt that much of work. they been doing 20-30 t62's a month, they have also ramped up tank productions 60 t-90's were made last year and 80 have been made this year so far
Could barely wait until another one of these was released, thanks for all the hard work!
Covert Cabal on a date:
Girl: so, what do you do for a living?
Covert: I spend money to aquire satellite imagery of Russian tank depots in order to count them and make free to watch videos about it
Girl: You got me at satellite imagery
Haha my fiancé actually showed me your comment! I. Sure she gets annoyed by me always trying to show her stuff
@@CovertCabal glad to hear the two of you are having a good time together! :) keep up your great work!
A few years ago I saw a report about how a Russian hunter found a whole field in a Siberian forest with Russian tanks in good condition. I also remembered the story of the Russian RD-180 rocket engines, which supposedly should have been destroyed. But the Russians suddenly offered to sell them to the USA. The American representative said: But you don't have those engines! Then they brought him to a large hangar and opened it. He said that he saw this huge hangar with rows of RD-180 engines going into the depths of the hangar... There were dozens or even hundreds..
You never know what and where is hidden in Russia, given their tendency to distribute weapons in unexpected places. It would be necessary to scan the entire territory of Russia. But this is physically impossible, even if the tanks are in an open field.
Well, this Story could be just pure bs, but fine lets asume it is true.
If you would "find" tanks out in the siberian tiga, they would have been their for years, out in the open, exposed to the elements and Not checked on.
Meaning they are in very bad shape, and require massive repairs
Thank you Great work on this. God Bless Happy Easter.
I have watched other similar videos that you’ve done and I am totally impressed with the attention to detail and use of rational analysis. I tip my hat 🎩 to you and yell Thanks!!
Thank you! I love to hear people enjoy the work! It makes the sleepless nights worth it. Plus I get to show these comments to my fiancé to show not coming to bed paid off haha
@@CovertCabal Please give our thanks to the fiancé. ❤ We collectively get a better picture of how to (politically) wage this war, thanks to your work.
At least hundreds of thousands, if not millions of us (through word of mouth)
We might be strangers & insignificant - but we see the effort & truly are grateful! ❤
@@CovertCabal Those T-80 tanks that hadn't moved in years may have had their engines stripped out to keep other T-80s in action since the T-80s turbine engine was hard to find spare parts for.
Absolutely superb OSINT - invaluable and one that can be used as a reliable source. Thanks for your time, effort and expense in doing this. Cheers from Oz :)
Remember the storage & repair bases may use other tanks to scavenge parts to make other tanks work so that can screw up those numbers.
because they don't produce those parts? lol
@@ctdesing not to the level to outfit 1000+ of tanks in a short time period all the while supporting the thousand plus tanks in theature.
@@ctdesing You obviously never worked on military equipment or major civilian fleet maintenance so why do you permit yourself an opinion?
Cannibalization has always been key to buffering supply issues. That's why tank recovery is critical to sustaining combat forces. Unless a vehicle or system is k-killed it's either repairable or an organ donor. The idea that all new parts for everything would remain in production after decades of Russian economic neglect, oligarch looting etc and selling off equipment is absurd. Ukraine was the heart of USSR manufacturing. There is no more USSR, no more Warsaw Pact, and Putinist Russia has a lower GDP than California.
This project is really a great contribution to the OSINT information on the war and helps the understanding of those who are not in possession of official intelligence. Obviously, assessing these things from a distance has its limitations, but the educated estimate you provide is still invaluable.
Right, but none of you seem to understand what is really happening. Amazing!!
Thanks! I also found out another OSINT person, who has a different method of determining tanks, came up with a real similar number of each type as me! So it's on the right track at least!
Perun: Military economics analyst and PowerPoint king
Covert Cabal: satelite imagery specialist with a pathological counting fetish.
Out of curiosity, how much money did it take to make this video?
Incredible work! Thank you so much for doing this!
here in Slovakia we have underground bases for tanks or former mines repurposed as storage facilities or huge hangars inside Mountains, which where used during Warsaw pact times to store all type of weapon systems and ammo...so I assume Russia will have such bases as well and you with your satellite imagery will not find them...and god knows what is inside them
OMG,this guy can give oryx a run for their money.A lot of respect for the work you put in @ Covert Cabal.
ı love this guy and his obsession of remaining russian tanks
Amazing work! To be fair, it's pretty hard to tell the condition of a tank from any image, not just satellite. Decent paint doesn't mean decent mechanical condition. I'm sure they don't completely disassemble and reseal every engine. I can only imagine how many "refurbished" tanks roll out with massive oil leaks and a note taped to the inside to top up the fluid every 100km hahaha.
Good work! Most excellent dedication, massive kudos to you.
I would only make an editor's note: reduction in countable items goes "fewer", instead of "less" like with substances. Anyway, top job!
Finally. Thank you! Can't wait to watch this 🙏 please make these a quarterly update if you can!
Every 6 months seems fine 👍
You know how to manage finances regarding buying sattelite images better than we do, I'll trust it into your capable hands. ❤
Great video! Thanks for the update! Can't wait for the next
Russia is now confirmed to have lost at least 2405 tanks in Ukraine.
your videos are amazing. That takes a LOT of work and patience. Well done, please keep up the hard work you do!
Those +250 T-55 can be used as indirect Artillery if they still have enough 100 mm ammo or converted to the heavy infantry fighting vehicule BTR-T (Small brother of the terminator) or any other vehicule (engineering/logistics...).
Iran still produces that ammunition for some of its own tanks
Apparently, they still have around a million rounds of it.
And are also a cheap counter for lightly armored vehicles
@@joseavila5747 they dont have fcs. Hard to hit a moving target without it.
T-55 is still dangerous if have modern optics.
Outstanding (and generous) work. Thank you
Brilliant analysis as usual my friend, you're one of the few most rational, most accurate and most consistent military content makers around mate, well done!!
Amazing work, thanks for all that time and sharing your findings.
Regarding the 800 T-62 being modernized is not accurate, the original source said they were going to modernized 800 tanks from the storage, including T-62, the translation was Just wrong.
In the plant showing the upgrade of "800 T62" also shows them upgrading T80B its not only T62 and they will be done in like a year
yeh but thats what the western media need us to think - Russia is desperate so keep on supporting project Ukraine. No mention Russia can crank out T-90's by the hundreds and bring thousands of T-72's upto Leo 2 matching specs.
Fantastic analysis once again! Well done...thanks for sharing!
One theory as to why the T80s haven't moved much is that because they have gasoline engines, while most other Soviet/Russian vehicles have diesel engines, including most of their military trucks and vans. I seem to recall seeing somewhere that most of the T80s were in the Artic units as the gas turbine engines handled the extreme conditions a little better. Don't quote me though.
Yes, this is what I have been waiting for. Thank you Covert Cabal!
Amazing job, couldn't imagine the work to do this, well done sir
How many "really old tanks" that have been in storage for ever, are actually good ? Its the engines that may be quite difficult to get going... its going to be far easier to refurbish the armour and guns on a running tank given its had the engine kept running, and various equipment updated,, than to transplant a working engine and various updates into a tank that is in long term storage ...
Wow. That's an amazing amount of effort! Thanks for the great report and analysis.
Love the detail and dedication for the topic especially from one person doing all of this research
U do a wonderful job man! I absolutely LOVE the theme music you chose and look 4ward 2 every single new vid u put out. TY. Seriously!
Did you include the T-34’s there are lots of museums they could pull those back into service from!
"I tasked a satellite..." that is an awesome thing to be able to say.
Thank you for the effort, work and time you put into preparation of your videos. I am completely amazed! You're awesome
We appreciate all your hard work work put into this video! This type of intelligence gathering and geographic data collection is not necessarily fun or easy. Kudos!
I would rather know how many experience tank crews are left after so many loses.
Or rather upgrading T72's while closing the gaps with shit that is too old to be upgraded
Appreciate the work you did putting the numbers together
That's the problem of making conclusions from space photos. My father and my two uncles served in Soviet army. They have told me that back then at least a third of stored tanks would never move ever ever, and that was like 35-40 years ago.
Thanks! For your satellite picture fund.
thank you for going through the effort to do this the tedious and expensive way so that we can get the best information possible
Excellent research. Thank you.
THANK YOU for doing this research dude
Appreciate the hard work of making this video. That's insane that you actually counted all those.
What a tremendous amount of work you put into this topic. It is unparalleled anywhere on the English speaking internet. Keep up the great videos.
Very impressive video & underlying due diligence. Respect! Thanks.
So these numbers assume that the garages actually have tanks in them. That’s the smart thing to do but also it’s possible that it an overcount.
This is a top notch breakdown of the details. Very professional ❤
Dude your research on this is incredible.
Hats off to you sir.. subbed and liked...
Thanks for the thorough research. Appreciate you buying the satpics. For us.
Excellent report, very thorough.
Your dedication is crazy, thank you so much for the interesting content
Wow, truly love your dedication to this subject and getting the answers
Tanks for the information bro.. thank you very much 😅
Amazing work, thank you for your effort!
Can you make video on how many tank Great nation of Wadiya have? President prime minister general Aladeen says 50000 but it's little hard to believe.
It's actually 20,000 but 10,000 are in very Aladeen state.
@@ChucksSEADnDEAD very Aladeen or just Aladeen?
Fantastic work! really appreciate your effort! Have shared with my friends.
This high altitude statistical video will inspire amateur researchers from all branches of the earth sciences. Your tank spotting prowess and attention to deterministic detail is a joy to behold.
Absolutely amazing detail and research you earned a follow my friend. It amazes me why they even have t-54/55s t62s t64 even in storage. That would be like us having m60s and m48s in storage in such numbers that would suggest we’d plan on using them again.
We do
Sierra army depot has hundreds of them in storage in many varieties m60 m60a1 m60a2 and even m60a3
Just need to think how they would be used. Most likely as self propelled artillery or as a secondary line of defence along quieter parts of the contact line. It forces your opponent to use their own tanks and bring atgm crews for any breakthroughs, which means that resource isn't available somewhere else and increases the pressure on them. Of course you would use them in some way if you could - ukraine is doing the same thing
This is peak research and reporting, well done, I hope this does well enough to cover the cost of the satellite images.
One thing this guy misses is that the Russian and Ukrainian army recaptures the tanks and armored vehicles damaged in the battlefield and repair and reuse them. So the number of destroyed is not accurate where it has counted the same tank as destroyed multiple times.
@@Contractor48
I think that perticular website differentiates between destroyed and abandoned/captured, making it possible to double count the latter but not the former.
@@jayhill2193 Oryx is not a reliable source.Oryx has been caught lying many times.
It suggest 3:1 to one loss of armor in favour of Ukraine.Something impossible with the amount of mass graves of Ukrainian military.
@@Contractor48 he doesn't count combat losses. He just uses Oryx number who does that. Maybe Oryx is wrong and counts duplicates, and maybe there is many, many destroyed Russian vehicles that were never taken pictures of so Oryx couldn't count them. The point is that Oryx is the best we have. If you have actually specific proof Oryx is wrong... then show it! Tell him! He works hard at making sure his number is close as it can be. He publicly states when a duplicate is found and deletes it. If you know a source that's better established and has facts and proof to back up claims... let me know! Otherwise, all complaints about Oryx just reveal you're own bias, shows you are unable to rationally judge the situation, and should seriously take a look at their decision making ability
Really appreciate your seriously dedicated work on this.
I did a really rough back-of-the-envelope estimate, and made it about 70-80% of your number...
2 years seems a reasonable estimate of the theoretical supply of Russian MBTs. However, given the current loss-rate, it's unlikely that Russia can refurbish tanks fast enough to keep a constant number of tanks on the front line. From public sources, I estimate they can bring about 30-40 a month from storage to the front line. That means a net loss of MBTs of perhaps 80-100 a month (assuming Oryx gets about 70-80% of actual losses). I know this is a gross estimate - do you have a better calculation?
I looked up the number of Russian losses of tanks as of anniversary on Oryx. Only counting destroyed and captured T-72s, T-80s, and T-90s (not including unknown variants), the total number of losses was 1,221 tanks. Of those, 528 were T-72B3s, T-72B3 obr 2016, T-80BVM, and T-90M tanks.
According to Russian state media, Putin put out a statement that Russia will build and refurbish 1,600 tanks a year. Rounding up to 1,700 tanks, that is 567 tanks a year.
So 1,221 tank losses with 567 replacements is 654 losses that need to come out of the reserve. Per the video, Russia has a maximum of usable 4,500 tanks in storage. So that is 7 years worth of tanks. However, this is the best case scenario for Russia.
First, we don’t have a complete picture of all of Russia losses, Oryx is a low estimate and the Oryx team estimates they miss 30% of losses. Second, “refurbishing” tanks might mean to make old tanks operational again and have nothing to do with modernizing an old tank, thus the Russian active duty tank force could be notably smaller than prewar. Lastly, there are no estimate figures in the public domain for the number of damaged tanks that Russia recovers from the battlefield requiring factory repair.
For that last point, there could be a huge number of damaged Russian tanks that need to be replaced while they are being repaired. For example, in Iraq the Americans had 530 damaged tanks from March 2003-Dec 2006 to 17 Abrams destroyed from March 2003-March 2005. While the Russians do face a more destructive combat environment with more artillery and ATGMs, the number of tanks requiring factory repair should not be discounted as insignificant.
Oryxx migh have 120% of the losses, tbh
Does your Oryx estimate include tanks lost by the Ukrainians?
I mean, _most_ of Russian tank losses were actually abandoned, rather than destroyed, right?
Presumably, the Ukrainians are more motivated to die than run, especially compared to the Russians, but undoubtedly Russia must have captured _some_ Ukrainian tanks that were abandoned, too, over the course of the war.
Might those numbers be high enough to postpone the point where Russia is unable to refurbish old tanks at the speed required to keep as many armored divisions in the field?
(and, if First Guard Tanks or whatever got mostly destroyed, would Russia even want to fill it with fresh conscripts and give them new tanks, or would they just field fewer tanks actively, going forward?)
Sorry to be so nitpicky on your methodology - overall it sounds okay :)
Western sources estimated at least 600 tanks from storage. Actual number is probably higher. So at least 50 tanks per month.
They also estimated at least 250 new tanks per year.
These are bottom of the bottom numbers.
@@user-qn3xu5ee3t Oryx is constantly checking that they haven't double counted any vehicles, and eliminating any that they find from their count. The reason that you'll see their loss counts go down every once in a while is because they found a double count or two in the last check. So It's pretty safe to say that very few of the tanks they have listed are double counts at any given time.
In fact the Oryx count is almost certainly an underestimate. I seriously doubt that most tanks that get knocked out get photographed and uploaded to social media.
Amazing insightful research work. Thank you
Would be interesting to do a similar comparison with US tank stocks.
I been following this channel since 2018 but god every time it amaze me how much of hard work he puts in these 10 mins video thank you much appreciate your amazing work from the bottom of my heart ❤️🙏
If heard the idea that the tanks already brought out of storage were the ones that could be brought up to operational status the fastest and it follows that the ones not yet taken out of storage will take longer. Is that a likely supposition?
Not necessarily. I would think the Russians would make some effort to make sure units get replacement equipment about equivalent to their losses.
For example, a T-62M might be operational fast. But doesn’t mean that it would ship out if a T-80U was needed and available.
Giving a like for a ton of effort-good on you.
My understanding tho is many tanks need parts that aren’t available, which makes some % not usable.
Excellent work !!!!! James.
Appreciate the effort, thank you.
I really appreciate all the satellite imagery you provide us,
It can't be cheap
Wow I’m impressed. THANK-YOU.
I can't imagine how much this video cost you to produce, just in satellite images. Then the crazy amount of time you spent. This was clearly a labor of love. No way Google will pay you enough to cover the cost of this.
Kinda scary to think that the USSR kept 90% of its 60,000 tank fleet in active service and only stored 10% . Truly a different type of monster they were at land war.
Not to mention that their tanks also maintained technological edge over the West too up until late 80s. Total war with USSR would have been a conflict never seen in human history before.
It's a country no one would ever dare to mess with. That's why it's so incredibly disgraceful that its political elites killed the country and are now fighting each other (Russia vs Ukraine, Azerbaijan vs Armenia, Moldova vs Pridnestrovie, Chechnya, Georgia, Tajikistan civil war). A NATO geostrategist's dream come true. If our WWII veteran grandparents were alive in large numbers they would be right to beat the tar out of their rеtаrdеd children for what's happening today.
Does comparing questionable tanks in images with/without snow help glean any insight for edge cases in the count? (Like the same items but before and after snowfall/melts etc)
Well done bro! Thanks for help