What's in store as we head into June...
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- čas přidán 31. 05. 2024
- For educational purposes only. If you live in the affected areas, please stay tuned to the Storm Prediction Center and your local National Weather Service office for the most accurate and up-to-date information.
In this video, we'll take a look at both the short-term and long-term forecast for severe weather as we head into June. We'll discuss some signals the current model solutions are showing that may dictate a change in favored areas for severe weather going into the next couple weeks.
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Bro you was pretty much right on for your 2024 Tornado outlook very impressive honestly.. Keep it up your the best channel out there for ones wanting to learn... ✌️
Thank you!!
I feel like this year really set you back, so many days this year that deserve a case study. Like as if you were running out of case studies to do. That said I'm really looking forward to your next video, whatever it is.
There are definitely lots of case studies on the docket…a good problem to have!
Random question! Is there enough data for you to do a 5/31/85 case study someday? You know, on a rainy day 😄
I’m filled with dread seeing that ridging pattern. It’s too early! We don’t need a repeat of last summer here in North Texas 😢
Already we've been spared because of all the rain! Those three consecutive la Nina years are over that kept setting records
Everytime I listen to these videos I feel like I’m in a meeting with the SPC.
That means a lot; thank you!
Sitting in Denver waiting for my flight home from my chasecation and cant believe the storms I got to see this week. Really does feel like mesoscale accident season is upon us - got to spend an hour in a field watching the Clovis NM storm the other day and it was truly a moment I'll remember for the rest of my life. Glad I picked this week and not next weeks tour the anxiety would drive me crazy but I'm sure despite everything there will be a couple of pretty cells out there if you can put yourself in the right place.
I am planning on chasing next year for the first time. However I am not sure what car to use, I don't want to dent my every-day car. You say you flew to Colorado, so I am assuming you did not have your own car. What car did you use and where did you get it?
Glad you had a great chasecation! That Clovis storm was a beast!
@@carolajansohn4623 I booked with a tour company, I aint doing that much driving myself I wanna enjoy my vacation!
Chicken soup for the weather nerd soul
Excited for storm season finally arriving here in western Wisconsin!
So, a break from the tornado madhouse. Thanks Trey
Just in time to hype me up for my workout. Thanks Trey!
Last year was so dry in northern Illinois. Hopefully this pattern will be good for my garden 🤞
Ah June....the month of still all hazards but MCS and higher plains cooking. Actually also the OH valley and areas South of NY state in the East Coast..
NM and Western TX usually get the action too but the real state in June....Colorado.
Colorado ALWAYS does crazy June stuff. It doesn't take much to get some robust events there and just need a little but of SE flow in Eastern Colorado and you can get some surprising tornadic storm and landspout insanity.
Lot of us Northeast chasers are heading out there in Early to Mid-June...our trip is 6/14-6/20 but main days are the 15-19th. Downside is IIFFFF the CFS is right and it is SD/NW Nebraska that is terrible chase areas with the Sand Hills and also you need to be careful dancing around the reservations up there. Many good roads in SD are private so you are limited where you should be going. We are gonna be as always stationed in Norman so we likely won't go that far N and then come South like that for a day or 2.
BUT we did see this last year too where 10-12 days out a similar ridge was models and it did happen a few days but it broke down so fast and models had 0 clue of the active and incredible Mid-June it eas from the Springfield, Co mothership storm, to the Beaver, OK....bitch storm...., to the Perryton and Colorado crazy tornado days.
Global models been pretty trash this year but I will give props to the CFS...though broader, even this week it is more on top of what we are seeing like today and tomorrow and this week.
That NW flow pattern got lot of chasers from MN to PA to SC hyped. As for us in New England and Albany for me....that trough may spit up storm days daily with garden scattered stuff but I tell people the death ridge is our friend over here. We need that NW flow and numerous cold fronts for our season which small....Mid-July to Late August but we will see.
I just see this June to be like last year and watch all the long terms models get blown to hell with what they hint 180+hrs. After 180hrs out with June, never trust a thing as we usually seen. :) Still you and the tour grouo should get several photogenic days and events in the Plains. Tornadoes...eh. Structure...oh baby!
As someone who lives in MN, I am curious to see if this year follows the trend hinted at in the analogs. Time will tell.
Thank you for the continues forcasts and insights! It's been a crazy season and will be interesting to see what June brings.
Thank you for this video letting us know about what to expect in June and beyond // thank you for answering my questions in an earlier post
Any time!
I finally have a camera setup put together so I’m hoping to at least see some storm structure and lightning this June
This has been a really interesting tornado season and great video Trey looks like you 2024 Tornado forecast is going as expected
Thank you!
I remain hopeful for tour 😍
Same here. It's going to be a blast!
The cell near Sterling today was interesting to see.
This is one reason Iowa can have such high yields in its crops...perfect amount of moisture at the correct time (mcs). Wow I thought the chasing was crazy before ... with indicators arriving the day of you will be doing some crazy driving 😂
Congrats btw on 20k I just realized
Thank you!!
Thank you Trey! We definitely need to dry out here in Texas (most of texas anyway), but im glad we have been able to get a good amount of rain since summer is coming up and its forecasted to be drier and hotter than normal which is unfortunate because the last several summers here have already been that way, we need a somewhat easy summer for once lol i hate summer so much its way too hot(though i know some have hotter summers than us so I'm grateful we arent any hotter but still not happy lol especially since we cannot really trust our power grids to handle demands)
Yeah, I'd definitely take an overabundance of rain over major drought. Both can cause big issues but major drought seems to be much more oppressive.
Ugh, I just arrived in the plains for my annual chase a few days ago....looks like I will do some hiking in the meantime.
Looks like a few solid mesoscale days coming up!
Nice Trey!!! Missed your uploads!
Just needed a little break but since folks have been asking, I thought I’d get a video up on how June’s looking!
@@ConvectiveChronicles take all the time you need! Definitely gonna need some videos in the future about some of the craziest tornado moments in May and what thermodynamics were in play, etc…
Lots of case studies on the docket!
@@ConvectiveChronicles I look forward to seeing your take on the Greenfield and Eddyville-Dawson Springs tornadoes! 👍
All those crops need to grow more to get that evapotranspiration cranking. You can certainly tell it's early June by the lack of that showing up
I honestly get more excited by mesoscale season than traditional severe season these days. There are more surprises, oddities, and lightning is more widespread. Also far less chaser convergance. 😂
Amen! Mesoscale season is awesome
Severe weather will always bust over Indianapolis.
Trey dropping knowledge…. Im drinking bourbon…..thx trey
I need South Dakota to get back into the game and produce some updrafts I love that state for chasing.
SD is one of my favorite states to chase!
@@ConvectiveChronicleswhat are your favorite states to chase?
@@RacersUnited My all time favorite is Kansas, particularly SW Kansas. The terrain is excellent, the road network is generally gridded, and the storms seem to do some amazing stuff there. I also really enjoy Nebraska and Iowa.
Does Ohio have a risk for MCS / derecho in this type of situation?
It's too early to know specifics, but that would certainly be a possibility.
Deep South really avoided a big tornado season. Hoping we have gotten enough rainfall down here before that ridge takes full effect.
Looks like The Maryland outbreak could be a case study on the cards? Also idea for case study - Pampas 1995 case study?
Pampa is on the list! Not sure I'll do a full case study on the MD stuff, but I did just make a new post about it.
What a couple of months, we are closing in on April-May 2019 total tornado numbers, 791 i believe total. Already as many EF3s as last year. lord...feels like a blur.
Would you kindly include links to all the meteorological data you use in the video , or at least, the content that is publicly and openly accessible in the video description? Thanks!
Sure thing
Ridging brings hurricanes
MN/WI is my "regional chasing area," and with 2023 and now this year, really the last four years, I'm about ready to be done. An Oklahoma chase would cost me $2k, Dixie Alley far more; an Iowa bust or wrong decision costs me $250-$600. $4k in camera equipment (motherboard broke on the one photogenic tornado I captured). Hundreds of hours looking at forecast models, none of which have favored anything in my region since late May, 2022. Weather patterns can be on a macro scale, so if anyone isn't adjacent to OKC or Alabama that doesn't have a wife/child/responsibilities and seemingly bottomless pockets, don't storm chase. Don't take interest in storms. Ignore the SPC outlooks. Don't buy cameras that cost more than your first car.
Do you think Indianapolis will be impacted by these northwest flow events?
Too early to know specifics, but it's certainly a possibility.
@@ConvectiveChronicles Got it thank you!
Will NW PA get anything out of this northwest flow? Apparently my area of PA gets 1+ derechos a year so I was wondering if like between now and like mid-late june was usually where we get those "derechos"
It's certainly possible, but it's too early to know specifics of locations of any potential systems.
@@ConvectiveChronicles ah alr
How will nc look ?
Too early to know any specifics
Uh oh, tornadoes to derechos😂
How's Belleville mi on Wednesday? 😭
Limited risk
NOW THE NORTHERN PLAINS IS NEXT
LET HIM COOK
Any post mortems planned?
Several! Just need to get through my tour season.
It would be cool to see some June derecho action.
Nothing. It’s over 😔
Not at all