Forecast Discussion - June 12, 2024 - Severe Weather Threat Shifting North
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- čas přidán 29. 06. 2024
- For educational purposes only. If you live in the affected areas, please stay tuned to your local National Weather Service office for the most accurate and up-to-date information.
After an incredibly active southern Plains season, severe weather activity is set to shift north over the next several days. Today, the SPC has outlined an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) across northern Minnesota/northwest Wisconsin. A few supercells are expected across the region with an all-hazards risk. The tornado threat is a bit more in question given somewhat high temperature-dew point spreads and weak low-level shear initially, but a slow increase in tornado potential should occur this evening. Very large hail is also likely.
The severe threat continues tomorrow along the southward sagging cold front from the central Plains into the Midwest. A complex of storms is likely with mostly an initial large hail threat morphing into a damaging wind risk. Friday is also beginning to look interesting in the area centered on Nebraska, where a subtle shortwave will interact with rich low-level moisture. All hazards may be possible with superells that develop Friday afternoon.
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Contents
0:00 Introduction, risk areas
3:16 Today's setup
27:23 Tomorrow's setup
31:21 Friday's setup
36:36 Next week's potential
38:20 Wrap-up - Věda a technologie
The best in depth weather channel on the internet. You’re the man, Trey. Thanks for the updates!
Thank you so much!
I would pay for a tour just to hang out with Trey
Well, SPC just upgraded the D2 outlook to ENH for a corridor stretching from Kansas City to the outskirts of the Chicago metro with the text mentioning a "potentially intense severe weather episode". Definitely looking more interesting for tomorrow.
75-95MPH winds
It could be an intense squall line with a swath of damaging winds. May also see some very large hail at the onset of storms forming. Still, the threat should wane quickly as it heads through central and southern Illinois and central Indiana.
Thanks trey! Hope all is going well for ya
Thank you! It’s been a great tour season; ready to end it with a bang.
Thank you.
Thanks Trey! Always informative. Look forward to your vids. Thanks for taking the time. We all appreciate it.
BTW, SPC upgraded Thursday’s forecast.
Thank you! Yeah, looks like mostly a big time damaging wind event with some large hail in the initial portion of the convective life cycle.
Hi Trey - Good to have you back ☮️
Thank you, Trey! Glad to have your analysis for the severe weather outlook from here in MN. Crossing my fingers everyone is safe and weather aware today, and any big weather events happen away from populations.
Welcome back Trey!
Love your vids
Thank you!
With a heatwave approaching, I think the main concern for severe weather, this week and later into next week, will mainly be centered around large hail and straight line winds.
Also, the SCP just upgraded to Day 2 to a Enhance risk, and seems to be debating about the possibly of a further upgrade to moderate. Main reason against is due to uncertainties of the areal coverage of the potential severe storms.
Great analysis, as always. Looked promising if we could get dew points into the 70s in western MN which we basically did. Yet it failed to produce. Targeted Alexandria to St. Cloud today. Robust convection but outflow dominate. Another bust day in MN.
Thank you! Yeah, the ingredients were just a little displaced from each other. With southwest extent, the low-level shear was just a little lacking and spreads were a bit high.
Great forecast discussion Trey 😁
Thank you!
Awesome video Trey! Thanks for giving me the heads up on X that it was coming
Thank you!
Can Chicago please get some storms that do not come after dark. I want to see some nice storm structure.
Indiana and Illinois has been a bust so far this year. Usually July into August starts to get more active around here, but I'm starting to get seriously bummed.
Hopefully you'll get some action with some summertime northwest flow setups.
Welcome to the MN area.
The soil is quite saturated in Minnesota & Iowa compared to last year. I wonder if that will augment the evapotranspiration.
It definitely helped a bit
Thought you were gonna talk about Fridays threat in the northeast! I'm in SE PA, chased my first storm on memorial day got under a tornado warned cell in Lancaster got pictures of a funnel right above me...hoping to get back out on Friday!
Zero meters club enjoyers lol
@@railfanningpoints2.045 not sure what that means lol
I just hope the cap doesn't disappear in Nebraska
Quite a contrast from last year eh Trey? The Northern plains and Midwest really didn't see much of anything last June and it was all down in Texas/CO/NM/OK. Like it was weird to see as that's not normal in June. Actually from Albany, NY this is a bit early still for our severe season to start as that's typically July/August but once again here we are again but unfortunately that severe day will be my fly out day around 2pm to Denver and then to OKC to start the 6/14-6/20 chase trip. These next 3 set ups while disappointing to miss out on....the Day 6 Minnesota day is looking VERY VERY interesting with it looking like a classic warm frontal boundary set up with good LLJ and good enough 500mb support. Only issue is that those could be HP insane storms as the GFS hodographs....wish we had EURO ones......are trying to curl back on themselves a lot. Still the low level support is looking incredible, like a classic plains event and if people think today is gonna be active, wait till they get a taste of the 17th and how wild and crazy Minnesota may be that day. Day 6......you don't issue that unless you know you have statewide outbreak potential on deck. Basically the plan it seems is not chase 15-16th and focus on driving and chasing 17-18th and travel back to Norman, OK the 19th and fly out the 20th for us.
As for the next 3 days and today. As you pointed out, this is a weird but interesting next few days we got on tap. Lot of parameters are looking pretty favorable and honestly still waiting to see if the SPC outside chance shoots up a 10% tornado chance like up by the border. I don''t see it happening but it may but that area of MN if people are talking about how forested it is, well.....that's easy for us in the Northeast chasing. We were born in it, molded by it, but alas it's not an easy region still to see spinny things there either way up there. Tomorrow looking interesting as the front pushes Southward but the more interesting thing is not tomorrow but the Nebraska/KS set up 2 days from now. That's a surprise as there wasn't much there on the models even 18 hours ago but now there is so it makes sense the slight with huge MCS potential there and a slight all hazards.
Well....things got quite wild now I'd day as this feels like Last June was in a sense where the all hazards events began to ramp up fast. Trey, where you guys heading next few days?
June 17th is a legendary day in MN tornado history. The best outbreak I have ever seen locally was June 17 2010. June 16th looks better to me for MN, but Iowa looks loaded up on the 17th. The issue, as with all MN setups, will be what morning convection does. We are so far removed geographically from the gulf it takes a potent LLJ to advect moisture this far north. That always means there will be elevated morning convection along the convergence zone on the nose of the LLJ.
Not sure yet. Eyeing Friday/Saturday as the days to really look forward to in NE
@ConvectiveChronicles Saturday we are debating leaving Norman and getting anything that pops in KS. Also we are debating now the CO/NE/WY areas Sunday but we now are figuring out if the MN/IA Monday event is possible if we do that Sunday. This just was talked up now between me and my 2 friends....hehe quick plans changing
Do you see Erie Pennsylvania getting put under a Marginal or slight risk of severe weather this week at all
It’s possible, but we’ll know more as these days approach
This is completely random, but how do you get the archived RAP soundings (for your case studies)? I'm trying to reflect on the June 3rd and 4th 5% tornado risks in Oklahoma (which I chased). I've found websites that give me the observed soundings, but none that allow me to see the RAP, HRRR, NAM etc. I was just wondering how you were able to get soundings for your case studies. Maybe you just screenshotted the soundings the day of and kept them (in which case I am out of luck).
I use the SharpPy desktop applet: sharp.weather.ou.edu/dev/
It's a little clunky but it gets the job done.
@@ConvectiveChronicles thank you Trey!
Will Belleville, MI be ok tomorrow? Seems we're in the slight risk and I'm panicking... Should I be panicking? 😭😰
No need to panic. Could see some low end wind/hail risk. As long as you have a severe weather plan in place, you’ll be ok
@@ConvectiveChronicles I'm going to my grandma's tomorrow... She has a basement 😢 You don't think it'll upgrade to enhanced, do you?
@@MasterFrog-jc8nb Not in MI
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