Andrew A. Michta - Washington’s Failing Strategy in Ukraine Shows the Urgent Need for New Thinking.
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- čas přidán 10. 05. 2024
- Washington’s likely failure in Ukraine shows the US needs a new national security strategy.
Andrew A. Michta is senior fellow and director of the Scowcroft Strategy Initiative at the Atlantic Council of the United States. The views expressed here are his own:
"The United States Senate’s failure to pass an aid package for Ukraine last month will likely be remembered as the first domino to fall in Russia’s war of aggression, potentially setting the stage for Russian President Vladimir Putin’s victory. And while the U.S. Congress is expected to try again in 2024, this was a clear sign that the West has grown weary of an open-ended “as-long-as-it-takes” approach. If this is to change, it’s time for a new strategy.
It’s true that U.S. President Joe Biden’s administration succeeded in leading NATO toward a common response to Russia’s unprovoked invasion - and this will be remembered as a splendid manifestation of America’s strategic DNA. But what followed has muddied the waters - especially the drawn-out and overly cautious process of providing military assistance to Ukraine.
Most importantly, the U.S. and its allies should have laid out a clear vision for victory. Instead, we heard from various officials that it’s either up to Ukraine to decide what the end state should be, that Putin can’t be allowed to win, or that Ukraine can’t be allowed to lose. Like the saying goes: If you don’t know where you’re going, any road will get you there."
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Dr Andrew A. Michta is Director of the Scowcroft Strategy Initiative and Senior Fellow at the Atlantic Council of the United States in Washington, DC. Previously he was Dean of the College of International and Security Studies at the George C. Marshall European Centre for Security Studies, in Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany. In 2015 -16 he was Professor of National Security Affairs at the U.S. Naval War College. Prior to that he filled many similarly prestigious roles. He is also a Member of the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London. Professor Michta has published books and articles on U.S. and European security, NATO, transatlantic relations, civil-military relations, energy security and democratization. He has special expertise in Central European politics and security. He is a frequent media contributor and government consultant.
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I wish our politicians understood this. Thanks.
Glory to Ukraine. God Bless Ukraine and her people. 🇺🇦🇺🇸
You don't get to wish, that's television you're thinking of
Which Ukraine?!
@@agnieszkaolszewska6079
There's only I've if those
Mr Andrew Michta is at the top of my list. Thank you for having him on your channel, Jonathan. Best regards from PL.
Didn’t think Silicon Curtain could get any better but today it just did! Fantastic discussion with two incredibly smart and talented humans! 🇺🇦✌️
❤️❤️❤️
This guy seems to speak a whole lot of sense. I pray someone in a position of responsibility will listen to him.
Please continue to provide us with such intelligent perspectives. The world needs it more than ever.
This guy gets it
He is originally Polish. Like old Zbigniew Brzezinski.
@peterc4082
Thanks for the mention!
*"It cannot be stressed strongly enough that without Ukraine, Russia ceases to be an empire, but with Ukraine suborned and then subordinated, Russia automatically becomes an empire.*
American policymakers must face the fact that Ukraine is on the brink of disaster: the economy is in a free-fall, while *Crimea is on the verge of a Russia-abetted ethnic explosion.* Either crisis might be exploited to promote the breakup or the reintegration of Ukraine in a larger Moscow-dominated framework."
_-Zbigniew Brzezinsky, 1994_
I suspected your comment was not in a good faith, thankfully i was very wrong. Learned about a really big man today,
RIP
@@dannydetonator It's Brzezinski. Poles have i at the end, Jewish and Russian people have y. He was Polish. It's important to have his identity correct.
I truly appreciate Silicon Curtain's focus on thoughtful, intelligent discussions. Not clickbaiting and bombastic titles, pictures of explosions and putin's face every day. Thank you.
👏
You are so right. We Europeans have gotten lazy and fat when it comes to our militaries.
An absolutely fantastic interview. Thank you.
Good interview. Jonathan let this man speak and the man says much that makes sense. Invite him back for second interview?
Thank you so much for this. I only wish more of our politicians were also listening to such expert informed views and putting it above partisan politics.
These are also my thoughts.
It's funny how western commenters are quick to blame the Russian people who have no input into the decisions made by their government, at the same time complaining about their own politics whom they actually got to elect about dithering. They never make the logical conclusion to blame themselves likewise.
This interview has opened my eyes to the cultural differences and the mistake of assuming russia thinks the same way as the western nations.
EVERYTHING YOU have said has me calling, as an American, for a bump on that 60 billion to 100 billion.....
Unfortunately, first it has to become $60B for Ukraine, which it is not. This bill is actual disinformation in the way US senate traitors worded and diluted it. Most of the "money" (rather $ value) is not even meant to go to Ukraine, and even the lesser half is not going directly for its military needs. The list of items in it makes it impossible to tell exactly how much of that value is allocated for Ukraine, but first analysis shows that direct aid in it would be $9-15B as a high estimate. Indirect benefits could be pulled by the hair up to half of the advertised value. It's called H.R.815: it includes aid for Israel, Taiwan, replacing US stockpiles in all branches of own military, repairs to nuclear subs etc. Here is the best teardown i found:
czcams.com/video/-eNTw_ynxww/video.htmlsi=8J29RxqIlBFoSz-n
I wish more of America would wake up to this. And here in Australia. But they are too caught up in an insular world. Until it bites then they will lose so much of what they treasure like in WW2 when lives were eventually lost.
This was fantastic and spot on. It boggles the mind that people like Andrew aren't senior advisers in administrations ... from his lips to Biden and Schloz' ears. Thanks for the shows.
Hi Polish background, same as Zbigniew Brzezinski.
Biden isn't the issue, bud. It's the putin backed Maga politicians in the U.S. government. And in all fairness, Macron should be included in your comment. Him NOW growing a pair doesn't negate his past comments and decisions in regards to Putin and Ukraine.
@@loduke3905 For you Poms this isn't an existential issue. For Poles and nearby states, it is. France is not relevant and France is also far away. France and Germany will sell Poland out. Our only hope is with US, and Michta thinks that Trump will not be as pro-Russian as many think. If Trump wins hopefully he sets the EU straight and makes everyone pay their fair share which will help Poland.
Excellent interview. I think Dr. Michta’s views on Ukraine are spot on! Please have him back!
👍👍👍
By not attacking the territory of Russia, they simply enable Russia to continue with no reason to stop.
Russia stop.....when they run inte a brick-wall.
They show no signs of beeing connected with reality.
Fantastic guest, a great listen!
fantastic timely commentary , agree if only @nato would hear & understand this, Ukraine must be admitted to NATO as it was in 1991 & 2008 when they first applied to join NATO 🙏🏼🇺🇦🇺🇸😢
..Great guest,great knowledge, great/ enjoyed listening to him…💙💛💙
Another brilliant interview and with a true expert. Thank you. 🇺🇦🇦🇺
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What he said about globalism being greed masquerading as an ideology that is very astute.Globalism is nice to have but it needs to be regulated and not come at the expense of a country's citizens or security.Also learning our adversary's langauges and culture should be a major part in all for this.We need to expose ourselves and the next generation to it.Great show and guest.👍
Globalisation will always come at the expense of citizens. The poor ones initially but it works it's way up. And how you have security while importing steel and energy from your adversaries is... unclear.
Thank you for another awesome interview, Jonathan. Michta really understands what's going on, unlike most so called "experts" and politicians. The West is seriously longing for leaders like Ronald Reagan. His approach to the Cold War was crystal clear: 'We win and they lose.' That same kind of clarity and determination is exactly what we're lacking right now.
One of the very best guests ever. Truly amazing interview with two TITANS!
Thank you very much to both.
👍👍👍
This man gets it!! I wish those that "get it" ..had more influence!!
Thanks Johnathan & Andrew.
Thanks, Jonathan, for the excellent conversation with Andrew Michta! He is so clear and eloquent. I wish that we could clone him into all leadership positions. Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦 🇺🇦 🇺🇦 Heroyam Slava 🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦Victory for Ukraine 🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦
Possibly the best interview I have seen on the subject, and I’ve watched hundreds. Thank you.
👍👍👍 thank you!
Thank you, Jonathan. Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦
What?! That's what Poles heard, while Ukrainians were torturing and murdering them in 1943..
Heroyam Slava! 🇺🇦
Wakey wakey before its too late lard'ers of the west( rolling in butter reference))the dilemmas with Russia today will only be even bigger dilemmas with Russia tmro.. and we will have let down and lost brave Ukraine.. excellent discussion
Great show, weaving historical precedence and trends into today's tapestry giving us a more balanced understanding of recent and current events. God bless the brave people of Ukraine especially those still under occupation and those in Kharkiv.
Amen to that.
A very clarifying and scary discussion. Thank you so much!
This guy should be in Jake Sullivan's place :/
🙄
I think the key sentence here was "we have not faced reality". That is indeed the main issue in the West of today. We are afraid of climate change and put enormous effort into this Don Quijote like fight against the wind, while not realizing that no matter how much we restrict our own industry and farming to reduce carbon, China just off sets that in a few weeks again. We think multiculturalism and diversity are our strength when in reality, you have to have a main culture to have any coherence within society. We deny reality even so far as not to be able anymore to understand the difference between man and woman.
And of course over the years, here in Europe we have denied the reality of war and being ready for it. But then again we also have denied the reality of borders and the necessity of police so that is not a surprise either.
Basically all our efforts, are at the moment being used to combat reality. Its really time to wake up. I can only imagine what would happen if we would, instead of fighting it, we would face reality and put our efforts in preparing accordingly.
Perhaps Russia funded these climate activists , these cosmopolitans that allowed immigration. The Kremlin influence runs deep
Agreed with every single word.
Hear hear... me too... I think we really need to roll-up our sleeves and get tough with Ru & By... no more mister nice guy... we should renege on all travel/study visa's, send home all NHL players and voud their multimillion $ contracts due to war, we should give Ua the $300B in frozen Ru assets, we must all stop accepting claims of plausible deniability, stop amplifying Ru narrative, encourage Marcon to put entry restrictions in-place before the games... we can do this if want to... I will encourage as many as I can to listen to this interview... Ru will only stop when they are stopped.
Brilliant. Best SC yet. Everyone in America needs to listen to this. Actually everyone in the West, period.
Europe owns a large piece of thus. It's been over two years, and they are just now realizing and talking about investing in artillery production... like what??
100 likes! What a lecturer. Fresh air of sober voice. Thanks for bringing such people to the limelight.
Top notch conversation!
Binary is right. Since day 1, I’ve said this is the rarest and simplest type of war there is: Good vs Evil. It seems we’re putting more effort into finding reasons to justify why Putin has done this than why and how we’re going to stop him.
Exquisite guest, how I wish this man was leading the west. He runs rings around the political elite. Thanks as always for brilliant guests, questions and content.
It is dismaying that we have clear and informed individuals such as Michta in the west, yet our so-called leaders rely on the tired and ineffectual policy advisors of stale ideas.
Idk that I agree entirely with that comment. I think the west throw Putin off balance when the U.S. released its intelligence directly to the world about Putin's upcoming invasion. Western allies and NATO coming together and assisting Ukraine. Germany doing an about face with Russia and its appeasement. My God, I mean Germany is supplying tanks, artillery, air defense and countless other things that we would never have expected after their decades of appeasement. Switzerland making moves to seize Russian assets and give them to Ukraine, Switzerland passing motions to sell ammunition to Ukraine during conflict. There are many examples of these moves being done and not being noticed. We focus singularly on the U.S. aid being blocked and call out Biden but neglect to call out the actual element, preventing the bill passing. We say oh Germany won't give Taurus.. ok, but they're making strides on other aspects and coming through in other fronts. We negate the fact that it's been over two years since Putin's invasion and Europe JUST NOW is talking about rearmament and military production... Years from now, we'll know all the little details and things that take place in the background. For now, we need Europe to invest in their military rearmament and provide what is needed while the U.S. guts the cancer from its government, from Trump to Johnson and all their little minions doing Putin's work.
Well, that was depressing. Still, one the best guests for a reality check.
Outstanding interview. Appreciate Mr. Michta's fact-filled retrospective of Western Russia Policy for the past 30 years, allowing the aggressive expansion of the Russian Empire.
What an incredible speaker. The very best analysis of international politics and economics and the huge problems we face I have ever heard.
One of the best analyses ever. How can I forward this to Speaker Johnston and every Western politician of every stripe? Thank you from Canada.
A very useful conversation---thank you, Jonathan!
Superb interview as always
The Peace Dividend is gone; the question is, did it ever exist?
We spent it, so let's hope so. I wonder if we invested it well? Oh no we didn't the top 1% took it as profit.
For those that were able to take advantage of globalization, it was incredible. For the rest of us.. it also existed, but in a much more diminished fashion to the point that in comparison it was a net negative.
Excellent. The broadest, most well-founded statement I have ever heard on the necessary changes in Western ways of thinking and acting towards Russian imperialism. My highest respect!
👍👍👍 thank you for supporting our work!
Jonathan is a very, very good interviewer on topics and with experts at this level, and in this interview format.
Mr Michta is spot on!
Excellent interview
Hear Ye Hear Ye if only Washington would listen to thee
'Negotiated peace' with despotic regimes is the incubator of future conflict. Please see the speech of Dzhokhar Dudayev on Russia, Russism in 1995.
And Europe.
really good job ... constantly !
Yet another great guest on your show Johnathan, thank you ❤
This guy gets it. Best analysis that I have heard. Very impressed.
This is the type person and thinking that we need as a top official in the US government instead of the likes of Sullivan or Blinkin. Where has this guy been?
This was known two years ago . This has been obvious since . The west has given rusha absolutely every opportunity to adjust . The west has been talking about the need to begin talking going into its third year . We have become accustomed to allowing absurdities of every kind to escape the mocking that should have followed . All along we were warned and we mocked the “conspiracy theorists “ to the extent that we use the shorthand “conspiracy “ when we should be saying “conspiracist” or “conspiracy theorist”. It appears we hairless apes are as conditioned as were Pavlov’s dogs . Thanks again , Jonathan.
What amuses me is that it took almost two years to get the GLSDB ready.. meanwhile Russia just deployed their equivalent, and while not as good.. you know they'll be using it in sufficient quantities to make up for it. A luxury the West does not afford to Ukraine.
Very straight forward in the end. Thank you.
Someone sober, at last.. thanks God
A genuine realist at last. Great interview.
47:27 is something I've said for years, so I am biased, but I think this is the most critical takeaway. It seems France's Macron has realized this, but the rest?..
Alas, there are no leaders in the free world to recognise these binaries.
Thank you, Jonathan and Andrew, for this conversation!
✨Merci!
💙💛
Thank you, Jonathan, for your conversation with Andrew A. Michta. Quite scary to hear his very clear-sighted analysis. I hope, his expertise will be heard.
🇺🇦 Перемоги і миру всім українцям! 🇺🇦
I’m Latvian and as I said in one of my comments on one another interview, I can only say that I will stand by my own country, Estonia and Lithuania.
Look at NATO countries, particularly Hungary and Turkiye - both should be thrown out of NATO alliance just for audacity to block accession for Finland and Sweden. I would say that whole EU should vote if Hungary should be part of EU just for undermining biggest peace project on this planet - their leader publicly is clearly not interested in European project and he’s representing the nation. You know what - there is a way out for them.
I cannot humanely accept atrocious outcome what we all can see is happening in Ukraine.
Who’s next?
Excellent guest.
One of the best interviews you have had. Definitely on point and insightful.
Great guest. Great interview. Thanks Jonathan! One ignore reality at his peril and now unfortunately everybody is in danger.
What a excellent perspective this interview provided.
Johnathon, your questions are always on point! 😎👍🏻
Andrew a Clear Thinker
We need more spokesperson like him
Thank you,Andrew
Thank you, very insightful talk. Unfortunately I'm losing hope that the West will be able to change course before it's too late.
Fantastic discussion Jonathan....again and again! We need a hawk in the US President and not a dove. Slava Ukraini.
Great report
Absolutely brilliant again.
Great guest and great conversation
DATELINE KYIV OBLAST
Outstanding interview, Jonathan! An interesting interesting and compelling conversation. My compliments to Dr. Michta for his cogent discourse, visionary rhetoric, and ability to place everything in its proper historical context.
Thank you, gentlemen.
V/r - IB
An American in Ukraine
(2019 - Present)
Finally Europe is Doubling Down on Defence...In a few years things should be much better
Top quality again 👏 thank you.
👍👍👍
Great interview!
Tack!
Thank you!
Listening to Mr Michta - on both English and Polish speaking channels - is a revelation. He's very knowledgeable guy with deep understanding of the European politics to a granusl level.
Really well delivered interview.
Author/strategist JR Nyquist has been reaching the same conclusions the guest has made, only years ago. May I suggest a show about defector literature? thanks for another informative conversation here, Jonathan.
Awesome interview 👏🔝
This was one excellent discussion. Thx
Thank you for based take. Pleasure to hear a voice of sanity in a cesspool of lard.
I do hope Mr Michta has an influence on decision-makers in the White House!
As usual a good discussion. Too bad we have Jake Sullivan not your guests. China isn't the only one watching Taiwan is South Korea is. We say we can't defend Ukraine, can't give them this or that weapon, can't let them strike Russia because they have nukes. So does China and North Korea, and we talked South Korea and Taiwan out of them. At what point do they decide they were fooled, and to survive they need to negotiate surrender or they'll be Ukraine too? We have a terrible habit of propping up unDemocratic leaders like Modi. There are many sitting on the fence watching this playing both sides because we look weak.
Thanks!
Thank you!
Great interview. I agree with all his points. When you need input on where Europe is now versus the place they need to get to in the future, let me know. I forecasted much of this while at Temple University in the 1970s.
This is awesome
Now that vital military support from the US is stalling Ukraine is in a precarious situation until the American election. The European Union has not been able to deliver what they promised and is denuded and humiliated. Putin has a lot of admirers not only in the Republican Maga movement but in the ruling part in Germany ,the Social Democrats under leadership of Kanzler Olaf Scholz. Germany is the weak partner in the Western alliance. Super interview, agree with everything he says.
Outstanding interview, one of your best, if not the best. I wholeheartedly agree with you that this needs very wide distribution. The points made at the end are vital to understanding why we're failing and what we must do to turn ourselves around so that we can face the actual problem with good prospects of success. Thank you.
We do control escalation our fear and placation escalates.
I also...couldn't agree more !!
💛💙💜💙💛 here i am, listening uninterrupted 🙂 🇺🇦 🌏 🇬🇧 🇺🇸
Very insightful
Thanks Jon
A great discussion, thanks. One point about escalation that usually remains forgotten: long wars have a natural, strong tendency to escalate. Just think of WW2, Napoleonic wars, the US civil war etc. A short war would be much better than a long one. Unfortunately, in 2022 we opted for a long war. The outlook for Europe is not good, unless pwe get our collective act together.
Slava Ukraine. And wake up America!
I was raised in the "area studies" era. I would like to see that perspective return.
Thanks for another interesting interview
So inspiring, thank you! ❤ I guess, from now on, taking care of my health is going to become my hobby.
Bring Elbridge Colby next and Julian Lindley French and Albert Swidzinski from Strategy&Future. All the S&F guys are good.
Strategy&Future team is legit for that type of conversation, it will be great to listen what they have to say. Peace to the world from United Kingdom ✌️
@@vicsingularity1040 Yes. Sorry French and Colby are not S&F members but are regular S&F guests. I think my favourite guy there is Marek Budzisz. I don't know how good his English is, as I follow him in Polish, but Bartosiak and Swidzinski speak decent English. I think it's important to get the Polish perspective. I know Brits always consider their own to be the best but it would be eye opening for the viewers here to listen to what people who know Russia well think.
@@peterc4082 yeah of course Colby is not in S&F member, Budzisz is pretty good in English verbal expressions.
@@vicsingularity1040 Yeah the way I constructed my initial comment sounded as though they were S&F boys. Only the last one is. Bartosiak is a bit over the top. He wanted no armour for poland initially he just wanted to hide a few tanks in barns and have TDF with Javelins. I think Budzisz is the most balanced and measured.
Europe successfully fought against Muscovy during the Crimean War without the USA on its side, so such victory is quite possible. The problem is that the final defeat is not possible because the USA already saved Muscovy from an inevitable collapse at least five times on 1867, 1892, 1921, 1941 and 1991.
outstanding!