How Long Does Russia Have Left? Number of Tanks, Each Type, and Their Decline This Year
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- čas přidán 26. 10. 2023
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Footage:
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Thank you for the new video! I have been wondering for months what was left since your last video...
Hi, you think the Rustkies M.O.D. watch this?
covert comes out of hiding excellent
Sorry i called you out ,for my personal estimates of May 24 ending Russias abilities.And i used HelloFresh in Germany for a Year every week,and i had 1-2 (minor) complaints. im at second 6 ,not seen much.
@CovertCabal -- Dear Mr. Cabal. 😉
I enjoyed your program today. I wanted to share two things.
First, what you said about working on older tanks being easier is true. Just like working on cars made before 1970 is easier than those made today. Less expensive, too.
The second thing was to give you a tip on working with lower resolution images -- you can upscale a low-res image using bitmap editor software like Adobe Photoshop. With a 20 year-old graphics editor, I can resample a photo at 200% or even 400% or four times its resolution. That will turn a 72 bpi image to a 300 dpi image. Upsampling also shrinks the photo by 1/2 or 1/4 unless you also up the size by an equivalent amount, too. Then print on a 600 dpi color printer, and its much easier to count tanks with a ruler and pencil.
Thank you.
I still can't get over the fact that youtubers are renting spy satellites to analyze military losses. What a time to be alive. Great video as always.
YT sponsors are proud to be collectively a top tier spy organization.
Trust me 150 years ago an average person would struggle just to get a sandwitch.
Agreed. The whole world of tank loss bloggers is quite amazing!
Too much supositions and no conclusions. It's good for entertaiment tough 😉
Pretty cool. The future is here!
A grocery delivery service is funding intelligence that could be considered top secret some ~40 years ago. What a time to be alive.
Even 20 years ago.
Was thinking the same thing.
😅
Hell, an armchair general nowadays has access to more intel than a Field Marshall in the 60s😂😂😂
The beauty of capitalism
It's not the loss of tanks that is hurting Russia. It's the loss of experienced tank crews. Japan didn't have a shortage of fighter aircraft in the last year of WW2, but they had a severe shortage of pilots that had more training than just how to take off.
Russia is experiencing the same problem with their pilots. They’ve lost quite a few experienced helicopter pilots and a fair number of aircraft pilots too. They supplemented the losses by taking training pilots and putting them on the front lines. But they’re quickly burning through them.
@@hisdudeness8328Where do you get your news from?
They have a substantially larger population than Ukraine, and training tank crews isn't complicated. They have human capital, where as Ukrainians are still fleeing the country.
@@inquizative44internet
@@chad_8313numbers are shit with tou don't have experience and equipment.
One very important fact that wasn't mentioned is that the tanks which haven't decreased significantly all use 125mm ammunition. However, the T-62 has a 115mm gun and the T-55 a 100mm gun. If 125mm ammunition is in short supply, that could explain why the T-62s and T-55s are being used.
But if that was the case, western media would have picked up the story by now. But there’s never been a story about 125mm tank ammo shortage.
From what I recall China used 100mm ammunition until fairly recently.
And they need the 125 mm for the T-90, which will be constantly produced beyond the war apparently.
@@ptonpcIran is also supposed to be cooperating with Russia and have large stocks of 100 mm ammunition.
@@kemarisite That doesn't surprise me. Sadly.
T-55 repair checklist: Pipe wrench - check; 2kg sledge hammer - check; large roll duc tape -check; accordian+operator -check
I had to rewind that to confirm I saw what I think I saw. LOL Only in the russia................thank God.
dont forget the vodka
If you watched mastermilo59 type 59 restoration you would see that t-55 is no less complex than T-72 really. And require all tools in the world to fix.
@@merohie9599vodka is for staving off depression
@@dukenukem8381 No Russian tank requires all the tools in the world to fix, you must have been looking at an Abrams.
It's unbelievable how many tanks they built during the cold war
And these are the one they kept, they sold hundred to many in the 3rd world nations, and the fact is that record keeping was absolutely terrible their probably hundreds sitting somewhere in Siberia nobody knows about, not counting whatever North korea and China have / but on their own even after the end of this war thier still gonna be alot of old tanks lying around
@@123456qwful Here in Serbia and former Yugoslavia liscence for T-72 was bought and 652 tanks were built in local factories, 80 tanks made in my town were bought by Kuwait. So it's not surprising that large Soviet Union was able to build so many tanks.
They took decades to build and that was the Soviet Union. A lot of their manufacturing and other resources end up in Ukraine.
It's unbelieveable they kept all these old iron.
Compare and contrast with how many aircraft carriers the U.S. built in the same time.
I worked in a scrapyard parting out bulldozers and you can say half are so past it they haven’t even got good parts to take off. The sheds I would expect to be used for boxed parts. So, a crate with an engine, a crate with radios, crate with a breach block and so on.
Thats under the assumption those crates wouldn't find their way into the back of a truck heading to the market.
@@LS-jv9hpor had all its copper wire ripped out.
@@LS-jv9hp To what market?
Good point! They might indeed be parts, or chop shops
@@DOMINIK99013 Local markets/foreign markets you choose. Russia is known for stealing and selling their own equipment and vehicle parts and engines are highly valuable.
I recently read that the US has about 8000 Abrams, but inly 980 of them are currently in service, so the rest of them are in storage. Ive been to one of the storage sites in Barstow California, I suspect many of our storage sites are similar. I noticed that we tend to store our equipment outside as well as the russians, but in the desert where it rarely rains. I saw vehicles in various states of readiness, but many of them looked okay, and sensitive parts were covered with white plastic to prevent sun damage. These russian storage sites appear to be in green areas, places where it rains a lot. So I imagine these russian tanks are rusting pretty badly, especially if they're stored there for years and decades, the ground pictures also seem to suggest they do little if anything to preserve the tanks in storage. I suspect the US, despite having far fewer tanks in service, would be able to get those remaining 7000 abrams fielded quicker and more effectively because of our desert storage sites and it seems we take better care of them as well. I wonder why the russians don't use drier climates for their storage sites. They lost Kazakhstan when the USSR fell, but the southern third of the country east of the caspian sea is relatively arid so i would assume these would be more appropriate storage sites.
If the US tansk in storage are so well looked after, how come it took so long to get only 30 ready for Ukrainian deployment?
@@kevin5073 They had to remove Chobham composite armour & some export restricted electronics/sights.
Basically they had to make it an export version of Abrams before shipping it off. I think thats the case.
Worse, a lot of these sites are around siberia, where the climate is actually hostile. Think -50 degrees celsius in winter, covered in snow, +30 in summer. Lots of rain/ other precipitation.
@@phoenix211245when it gets significantly below zero rust slows down massively.
The reason Russia doesn't use those arid areas is logistics. Even in the desert, the USA has highways and a good rail network while Russia has no highways outside of the European zone (and few even there) and their rail network is centralized on the Trans Siberian Railway outside of the European zone. Furthermore, their rail network is a crumbling wreck with some rails dating back to the Czarist Era, a shortage of engines and rolling stock that dates to the USSR.
"I had a sattelite tasked to take a picture, but it couldn't get one in time"
The times we live in man. Absolutely wild.
It's amazing the work you do with commercial satellites; it's just wild to think that the U.S. military has someone doing this with spy satellites on a regular basis. Just imagine how much info the U.S. has on this topic alone. I'd imagine they can count tanks, they know which models are left and their condition, plus they probably know exactly how many are being produced either via human intelligence or satellite images of rail cars leaving the factory.
Thr military has access to the this info at a far greater resolution. It's been said that military satellites can read the tag on your car. They also have IR satellites and ground penetrating radar seats too.
@@Elthenarthat is probably in the realm of fiction.
Max resolution is 5 cm per fundamental optical properties shown by studies since the 1970s.
And today, the u.s. does have some 7cm but many are 19cm or 31 cm. It's possible we might have secret 5cm but they would be large and expensive.
Current Source: Google "maximum u.s. satellite resolution"
But I've read this info and updates many times since 1995.
The amazing thing is that this video seems to be entry level knowledge.
They have info, they published it in a report.
"Russia has more military equipment in its inventory now than before the war"
They added tanks, artillery, etc etc ...
People like this youtuber stated, a year and a half ago, that they had no more tanks, missiles, and artillery shells.
A year and a half later, and they still use massive amounts of tanks, missiles, and artillery shells.
Every 3 months, those claims come out again, and every time they are proven wrong.
Same thing happened to "the sanctions will crash the Russian economy", they added GDP instead. Then they said "it'll merely last a year", yet it's still going. Russian exports have increased, port activity has been steadily rising in the country's main deep water ports.
This conflict has people pretending they know who has what better than the owners themselves, it's ridiculous.
Russia is pretending they aren't evil. They are today's Nazi.
Perun has a good video on this. He also looked at percentages of visually confirmed losses as the types of losses change dramatically. T-80's are more popular as unlike the t72/t90 it can go reverse fast enough to get out of trouble - its a big deal for surviving drones and counter fire of various types.
T-80BV is the most common loss, because they were put in storage in the early 2010s.
Which means they are in better condition than most other tanks, except for the T-62's activated in relation to Vostok 2018.
yea, and russia is making a new modernized t-80, I Belive, it has a welded turret with a cope cage and a fixed transimition so 30-50km reverse instead of the old 15-25kmh so its going to be a good upgrade if that is they make it
I like Perun, but h needs to learn to edit his content down. Facts get repeated a lot, and they could probably be half as long
@@coylaxy7868 The T-80BVM uses the existing cast turret from T-80B, and it's transmission tops out at 12-13kmh.
Yep. I listen to him every week.
I like his dark humor and non-political point of view.
Just the facts.
Dad recommended him. Said they were West Point quality PowerPoint!
Could you please show a small map in a screen corner so you can mark where in Russia is the base you are analyzing? I think it would be a great additional information, thanks!
We need a 2024 update on Russia's tank losses. Avdiivka has been catastrophic for Russian armor.
Sure it has.
I’m sure it has been
How many Abrahams does Ukraine have left ?
they lost since oct approx 9 tanks per day.
@@Skousen77Out of the 31 they received, 29 are in active service. One hit a mine and has since been towed for repair. Another was destroyed by artillery fire.
3500 good tanks, thats still a freaking lot despite losing 2000 since Feb 2022.
You also need good crews though they're useless without them
@@Connstein from what im seeing in avdiivka good crews dont carry them much further.
@@ConnsteinMost crews of destroyed Russian tanks managed to bail out before ammo cooked off/before the tank was finished off or captured so there is a great chance that most of these lost tanks still have crews that survived that may recieve new tanks for usage
@@markorstb back up your statement please... I need facts not opinions
@@remogatron1010trust me bro
Absolutely love your Channel Sir. It's one of two I have notifications turned on for. Please keep the graphs up and provide more data from your research. Cutting the data up in as many ways as you can
Thank you covert for another great and informative video. I really appreciate that you go through all this and spend so much money to keep us informed with a unique sort of video. I salute you sir.
I’ve been quite happy all day at the thought of watching a Perun video tonight. I’m now ecstatic to find a new CC upload 😊
I think a potential reason for heightened consumption of older vehicles is being missed: different ammunition supply chains.
If you are often using your tanks as SPGs (as Russia is), and you are somewhat ammo constrained (they are), older tanks with different caliber guns allow you to tap into other stockpiles of ammunition for less important fire support missions. Save the good stuff for where it’s needed. Russia is sitting on piles of old Soviet ammo (or was at the beginning of the war). Reactivating these tanks may well give them the ability to tap into even older stocks of tank rounds, or production pipelines from countries still using T55s/62s
This is correct and was established some months ago. It's not better known because of the overwhelming wishful thinking bias and propaganda coming out of the west
the t-55s are probably getting put into service mostly as crappy mobile artillery as they have worn down the barrels on their actual artillery.
Keep working !
Wonderful perspective.
Will be happy to follow you wherever you evolve.
Thank you SciManDan.
The good news is that this video series will become easier and easier to make each time.
Unless it kicks of world war three but hey lets laugh it up; i am 1000 meters above sea level in Africa so will be OK.
@@pietersteenkamp5241 if WW3 starts no one will be safe. So might as well laugh it up. Nuclear weapons are irrelevant.
@@pietersteenkamp5241 unless you can turn into a newt, good luck.
@@moskwitoe Heck you probably still believe that nuclear winter is a real thing so sure.
@@pietersteenkamp5241 We know volcanic winters are a thing, so why wouldn't enough nuclear explosions be able to cause something similar? Honest question by the way, so please no sarcasm or somesuch. I'm looking for an informative answer
YESSS! Love to watch these, and so glad this came out so soon after the IFV video. Thanks for the incredible work and journalism you do!
Man, how much time have you and your team dedicated to counting thousands upon thousands of vehicles in satellite photos for this video format? I feel like it’d take a mental toll after a while.
This takes 1 day at most, if you are doing it systematically.
In Russia, tanks count you
It's not the first time so it must be much faster since he already know where and what to look for and also improved methodology
He paid someone in a third world country 50$
in situations like that you often just count the number in a lot, row, or area and multiply. Like in movies/shows when they see an army and say "it's 1000 men" they dont count them all, they either count 10 rows of 1000 or they figure there's 100 men in an area and 10 different areas. There's also AI tools and programs you can use, i work in construction and to count things like light fixtures in a build theres programs that let you just click on an image and it marks that spot off and keeps a count for you, which allows 1 person to count hundreds of things in minutes without losing their minds.
Brilliant video! very fascinating analysis.
Excellent work as always. Thank you
If the Russians are getting ammo from Iran and North Korea this might explain the preference for older tanks as those nations use domestic variants of T55 and T62 tanks. It's going to be easier to arm the older tanks as opposed to the newer models.
"If the Russians are getting ammo from Iran and North Korea"
Says who? Oh right, the same people that said Russia ran out of ammo March 2022. Riiight. Very trustworthy!
No, as i've already said a hundred times or more, we've known for OVER A FRICKING YEAR NOW that the T-62s were modernised and then sent to the DPR/LPR troops because they lacked training with modern Russian equipment, but badly needed something closer to assault guns, so their age didn't matter nearly as much.
they mainly use those terminator tanks with machine guns and anti tank missles beacouse those are more versetile and are harder to outmenuver
@@jurepejovnik4493 "mainly use"? Bro there's been a grand total of 23 built. They're almost as bad as the T-14.
Probably a bot 😂
@@arthas640 the Russian terminator is worse than the last 4 terminator movie. It's the biggest bomb in their arsenal 😋
Dude at 12.06 is whips out the ol' accordion to work on the tank. Some peak russian engineering right there
Again a very intersting and helpfull Video. Thank you for your work
TY again CC.
Russia is using the old T-55 & T-62 tanks as defensive artillery, in their trench lines and fortifications. It's actually a smart repurposing of older equipment. You might as well use it if not it's just going to sit there and rust away. But we all know that the Russian government does not care about how many dead soldiers they have but if they're fixed artillery (the tanks) we only need at least one or two tankers to use the tanks as "cannons" basically. I may be wrong but I think I've read an article on this. In my opinion, that's what I would use the T-55 & T-62 for.
There’s been a recent pic of a T-55 used as a tank not Artillery in Ukraine
@@IrishFoxHoundold ones from kharkov and kherson retreats
And as fixed artillery, they will be easy targets for drones
"we all know" you mean "we all swallowed the corporate media western propaganda"
thats still crew and ammo that you need to produce and train for an old outdated tank, if they had better stuff they would be using jt
Covert Cabal be like watching 3 pixels and determining engine characteristics, armour layout, bore evacuator for the gun, width of the tracks and if it has the legendary wood in the back, to determine type and state
Wow considerable effort, great job
Thank you for the video!
Thank you for all the work you do
I love these updates and thanks for paying for satellite imagery and respect to Hello Fresh for sponsoring this content.
I ALWAYS go out of my way to watch your content, PLEASE POST MORE, love what you do bro!!!!!
Great content as always. Keep up the good work
You watched the video ?!!! It was posted 3 minutes ago.
Your dedication to counting all these tanks from satelite images is amazing. Great content!
You're videos are the best and I sometimes check to see if you have a new losses one out thanks so much for the content
Thanks for the video!
It is also worth noting that on average only every third or fourth tank can be restored. The rest is either too exposed to the elements, dismantled for parts, or simply looted.
We simply don't know that and i would argue that you can restore almost every tank in that sort of yard with sufficient time and resources. The question is if they can find the time and the tools/personal to do so in any good time.
Frome where come this briliant opinion.
@@DOMINIK99013 From personal experience of bringing Soviet armor back to life after long-term storage. You can share your experience, it will be inspiring to hear.
@@edwardkennedy6443 In which country with what sort of support and resources?
@@pietersteenkamp5241 Of course you can argue, but it won't change anything.
Metal is not some magical material that is not affected by time and weather. Corrosion, temperature changes, violations of storage conditions and a bunch of other factors affect whether the equipment will be accepted for restoration or will be recycled.
The 349th has an awful lot of exposed hulls with no turrets
That’s the natural condition of a Russian tank, isn’t it?
@@gdutfulkbhh7537 they are migrating wast to return to nature.
This is my favorite type of update! Great job!
so you like fake updates?
Great work as always!
Great job as usual... Many have been waiting and you have the skill and technology.. With oryx numbers on t80s , the losses are more than double than original starting numbers. I was at least glad to see t80 t72 storage down, but not as much as I hoped. It is incredible to guess good/bad, kudos.
Oryx counts ukie losses as Russian that's why
Oryx long time ago went over the known number of T-80s in existence ;)
@@RCx44Evidence? Please provide proof that even 1% of the almost 13000 Russian losses are actually Ukrainian. I bet you can’t 🫵😂
@@RCx44”Trust me bro” why don’t you go to the list and show me which ones are actually Ukrainian?
@@RCx44what?! There is seperate count for Ukrainian equipment. Trying knowing what ur talking about before posting.
I want to live in a world where Covert Cabal collaborate more often. You both do excellent work, and id be curious to know how much the satellite imagery costs
He mentioned it on his initial tank counting vid, have a look back.
@@TomsGotPowers I know, and I want more of it
solid work
Thanks, Covert Cabal.
Can you make a similar video about Ukraine's equipment?
12:05 Ah yes, the important accordion service tool.
Wouldn't you update this video? The one about BTR and BMD too. I would like to take this opportunity to congratulate you on your excellent and honest work! Go ahead!
good work dude, thanks.
Soviet Union's industrial might was insane, man. Even to this day there are thousands of stored IFVs somewhere in warehouses.
Not compared to the U.S.
Yeah. You trust Government statistics?
"We've investigated ourselves and found we are just, strong, and powerful. Never mind the facts. Trust us"
The US doesn’t store old hardware. They either sell it, give it away, or scrap it.
@@LOL-zu1zr the US can't compare to current production rate of Russia let alone the Soviet union. They can't even keep up with artillery production let alone anything more advanced
@@LOL-zu1zris this what the kids call cope
It’s also worth questioning the quality of new tanks Russia is producing. Multiplying your output of tanks by 2.5 is no small undertaking, especially when under sanction. I’m curious if some of the tanks being rolled off the assembly line are being built to the same standard as prior to the war, or if they have one or two features missing.
Copium
@@03056932 Oh stop. Russia has big problems running the T-90 production lines. Are they even running at all?
Russia has devolved and is now producing what it can, which the newest of them is the T-80.
If you look at the T-34 and its massive production numbers you'll know that more than just one or two features were cut. Many of them were missing rather important components like a turret basket, gaskets, and seating.
I think The Chieftain did a video on some of that, specifically night vision equipment. Yes, they're having to downgrade some, but it's still usable. You might not be able to tell which way the other tank is facing due to low resolution, or sometimes what type of vehicle it is exactly, but you'll still know some big vehicle is sitting or driving there.
4:54:
Out of the 20 garages in this image in the 5x4 row, 7 lacks snow on the roof.
To me that suggests 7 of them are being actively used by personnel (needing heating) and the rest are not being heated.
12:05 Accordions always help with repair
One point worth considering is that Russia isn't going to use every last tank they have in Ukraine. They still need to keep armor held back in reserve to guard their vast borders or suppress internal uprisings like the Wagner coup. It's likely they would hold at least several hundred if not more than a thousand back for these purposes, so when you consider that their situation on the battlefield is even worse.
Is it though? If the loss per day compared to ukrianes are false, which the evidence suggests, they can sustain themselves for nearly a decade
@@03056932 What evidence? Russia lost about two dozen tanks at Avdivka these past two weeks.
They have created entirely new armies with tanks not committed to the battle. The idea that all the tanks from storage means they were all destroyed in battle is stupid and reckless propaganda.
That is a really good point. It seems logical that Russia would need to hold back some thousand tanks or so for the case described. That is very significant.
@@marviwilson1853 they already have masses of tanks deployed on the rest of the border not factored into this videos numbers
The bases with an increase in number and outside the large garages, are most likely being refurbished in the garages. As to the older tanks being sent to the front first, might have more to do with the different ammunition they use... 100mm ammo may be more plentiful in storage.
I have also heard that they have quite a few older trained tankers that served on and maintained the older tanks and was easier to give them older tanks. You always run out of tank crews long before you run out of tanks. When Germany was overrun late in the war there were stores of brand new equipment but no crews.
@@hobbiesofstefs7085 same with Japan, hence why Kamikaze's going from an occasion tactic used when a plane was going to crash anyways to being employed en-masse in waves. Early in the war pilots could at least have a chance of dropping a bomb or torpedo on target but late war they couldnt, so they just told them men to ram straight at the boat, and as the war progressed the men didnt even have the training to employ evasive maneuvers and just flew in straight lines and got shredded by AA fire.
8:02
they have new laser rangefinder and Thermal sight with kontakt-5 plates for protection. Also new fire control
Is it thermal tho ? They still appear to have that IR iluminator, which I would guess to be useless if they had thermal
@@vizender I’m talking about newer models
Another great video 🎉
There are two facts about Russian tanks numbers which are fairly reliable. Oryx numbers of tank losses by type. The numbers of tanks counted in this video. One thing which is strange is the fact that T55 and T62’s have been seen being moved by rail and some of these tanks have been lost in fighting but not recently and there have been few videos of them being used on the front lines. We do know that a lot of these old tanks have been removed from storage. I think (speculate) that these old tanks are being used for training, given to the Russian national guard following the Wagner March on Moscow or swopped for newer tanks held by units not committed in this war. Sadly given the fact that Russia has a lot of tanks and is producing more I cannot see them getting short of tanks for many years. The long term problem for Russia is that they have spent their Soviet military inheritance on this war. It took the USSR 40 years to build this up in military vehicles and ammunition and in doing so bankrupted the country leading to its collapse. Russia is a much smaller and poorer country than the USSR and it cannot replace what is being lost. Whilst Russia will not run out of tanks for this war strategically they cannot continue losing this number of tanks, armoured vehicles, artillery and ammunition. This war is now significantly adversely affecting the already poor demographic outlook for Russia. I am not arguing that Russia can’t maintain this war but if they do the country’s strategic outlook is very grim.
There’s footage that confirms T-55s are used as cheap mobile artillery systems and for training with also a single instance of a remote controlled bomb.
T-62 is a different story, Russia already lost 82 T-62s of them and Russia is in the process of “modernizing” 800 of with 3 already being confirmed to be destroyed, all of which were destroyed on the frontlines clearly being used as a tank.
Russia is also still using older T-62s at the fronts with one of the most recent losses being from July.
It’s a few years worth of tanks. 3,500 is about 4 years worth of confirmed losses assuming Russia stays on the defense with no Ukrainian breakthroughs. Along with a presumed 200-250 tank production a year, Russia could sustain for about half a decade if they stay defensive.
Do you realize war is great for the economy? When you literally demonstrate your weapons at work. You do know Russia is winning this war from A to Z. By the way, is Russia manufacturing their tanks, is Ukraine manufacturing tanks or are they getting them on charity? You cannot win a war on charity.
The big plus for this war is that they are using up equipment in storage, and they can't replace it. Soon, they will have a million tonnes of scrap metal. When they end up fighting Poland, they are going to regret that.
@@ahsokatano5798 I have not seen any evidence of the T55 or T62’s being used for indirect fire role. To do that they would have to be within a couple of km from the target. The T62’s have not been seen since July which for this war is a long time ago. Another thing I have noticed is the high number of T62’s being captured as apposed being destroyed. I suspect the Russians deployed them to the front for a short time but found them to be too unreliable and they have mainly withdrawn them. Given their stocks of T72 and T80’s it never made much sense in deploying the old tanks.
I'd like a video on how many soviet tanks ukraine still has left. I know he said the last video ukraine is getting foreign equipment so counting isn't necessary. But I think it's important to know when ukraine will be completely dependent on the west(they basically already are)
Outstanding video
Awesome channel !
Two more weeks, this time for sure.
2 more weeks trust the plan
So... 3,500 remaining with a production rate of 1 a day and a loss rate of 5 a day (on average, MUCH higher lately) means:
3,500/(5-1)=875 days worth of supply remaining. And if you use the daily loss rate average from the last several weeks, that drops to as little as 175 days of supply during major offensive operations.
So 2-4 years .. Sounds about right. Russia lost about 1500 since Feb 22
And before that they use Atomics.....
@@jeffmeyer4965 Against who? An army in the field is actually rather difficult to use nuclear weapons against. But even if they do, what's the point? An airburst is relatively "clean," with the radiation exposure level reducing by 90% every sevenfold passage of time. (so, if time zero = 1000 rads, then in 7 hours it = 100 rads, and in 49 hours it = 10 rads, etc.)
So, any nuclear weapon use would have to be against the civilian population in cities or urban areas.
And that isn't going to stop an army in the field - it would embolden it. And probably result in unlimited Western support and less support from China.
@@a24396 That is exactly where they would use them. What stopped WWII in the Pacific? Dive deep and see who started this whole ball of Crap.
That's assuming the Oryx count is correct; when it is biased and probably double counts Russian losses with Ukrainian ones (captured tanks used by Ukraine get destroyed still count as Russian losses-- think of the hundreds of T72B3s captured, but none counted as a loss for Ukraine); so probably the loss rate is only 2/3 of what is shown.
And also assuming that the industry can't increase its production, which is false, as we've seen increasing frequency of deliveries since October (due to the partial mobilization, a lot more resources and workers got poured into defense industries); so probably if this drags on for another year, the production may double, keeping in mind the steady increase of the defense budget; for 2024 it is estimated that it will surpass 5% of their GDP, which is a huge increase and will likely cause that too.
Then..... suppose they somehow do run out of tanks....... they'll just mobilize more of the society and spend more of the GDP on weapons production. Russia is 1/7 as mobilized as Ukraine, GDP wise, so they have plenty of room to increase the spending. If they didn't run out of things in WW2 and the industry could keep up back then, I doubt they won't be able to do so in this context.
Interesting content. Sat photos can be expensive so chipping in a little.
Nice work
I assume the Oryx numbers are an undercount, since they seem to work pretty hard to make sure their numbers aren't an overcount. I remember someone suggesting that the real Russian tank losses were probably around 1.5 times the Oryx number (which seems to be roughly in line with the Ukrainian MoD claim). When I refreshed my Oryx tab just now their figure for knocked out Russian tanks was 2,461. 2,461 * 1.5 is 3,691.5. We're 20 months into the war. If they have 3,525 good tanks left, and they continue losing tanks at the same rate they've been losing them it will take 19 months to run down what they have in storage. That becomes 21 months if you assume they are building 20 brand new tanks per month.
Obviously they will not continue losing tanks at the same rate. Once they no longer have enough tanks to give all of the units fighting in Ukraine the full amount they're authorized to have they will lose fewer tanks simply because there will be fewer in the line of fire. But I figure they can keep their tank units at full strength through 2024 and the first half of 2025. I'd guess that from the second half of 2025 and beyond it will no longer be possible for them to maintain their tank units in Ukraine at full strength. They will have fewer and fewer tanks in Ukraine each month from then on. But since they're constantly producing new tanks, the number of Russian tanks in Ukraine will never reach zero (until the Russian army itself is removed from Ukraine).
A couple of notes. This assumes that the Russians have been losing tanks at exactly the same rate since the beginning of the war, which they haven't. It also assumes that the rate of Russian tank losses will not suddenly increase, which it might.
The most interesting thing of these numbers is that even in the event of a Russian victory, (defined as at the end of hostilities they still control Ukrainian territory).
It would be an extremely pyrrhic victory.
How much of their top equipment (and stockpile of junk) have they lost? Would oil reserves in donest and luhanks be worth the hassle? And until they can tap those, What would happen in the in-between? Because the world will no longer buy Russian armaments after their performance in action against 90' NATO equipment...
It is pretty safe to take MOD number as an ceiling with Oryx number as a floor.
Real number is of course something in between.
At least for tank, Oryx number is likely a lot closer than the real number.
Another thing to note is that former Soviet states and countries friendly to Russia still have a lot of equipment in reserve. It’s entirely possible Russia may begin purchasing tanks and other vehicles from Syria, Belarus, Iran, or North Korea. They could also begin applying diplomatic pressure to the formerly-Soviet Central Asian countries to begin covertly sending spare parts or vehicles, or promise them new or refurbished vehicles to be made and sent after the conflict has ended . As much damage as the Russian economy has taken, they still have extensive monetary reserves that they can use to procure equipment from any number of sources. But the longer hostilities continue, the harder it will become to sustain and equip their forces.
@@Andrew12217Not only will countries likely not buy new Russian equipment, but there were a lot of countries, even in Europe, that still had Soviet-origin vehicles. When they’re sent to Ukraine as aid, it eliminates the possibility of that equipment ever being maintained or overhauled by Russian companies. The Mig-29s that were in service with Slovakia had been being maintained by Russian contractors, but now that they’re in Ukraine that source of revenue is no longer available to the Russian DIB.
@@jintsuubest9331MOD number can’t exactly be used as a ceiling since it’s clear there is a propaganda element involved. Several members on the oryx team estimate the actual losses are between 15-25% higher than what is documented, which seems reasonable.
Another Great Content From A Great Content Creator, Keep it Up Bro. I definitely Admire Your Channel For a very long time. From a Good research & Great Narration Equals to Brilliant Content. 👌
first time watching your channel, but i appreciate the effort and the apparent honest attempts trying to figure the numbers out to the best of your ability. that you don't use an AI narrator also greatly helps me trust your intentions as not being propaganda or biased.
Thanks!
One thing that might explain why the T-80s have remained relavtively untouched is the engine. The T-55, T-64, T-72, and T-90 all use the same engine, upgraded over the years, but it can trace its roots back directly to the T-34's V2 engine. (That's a model designation, not the cylinder count.) The T-80 is the exception, because it has a gas turbine engine, similar to what you'd see in the American M1 Abrams. Gas turbines are more finnicky to operate, more maintenance intensive, and use a lot of fuel, even by the standards of tanks. That higher logistics burden might be a factor in Russia's reluctance to field the T-80s in large numbers.
It's because of that engine that T-80's have had a better time of it in Ukraine because they can actually get out of danger in a timely fashion.
Not the engine per se, more the gearbox. T-72 and T-90 have famously rubbish gearboxes with a reverse speed of 4 kph, meaning that if the crew fucks up, they can't un-fuck it. T-80 is still not great, but it is better, and the Russians claim it has been upgraded. Take that for what it's worth. @@kjj26k
T-80BV's have consistently been pulled from storage since the war began.
And T-80BVM production has increased by quite a factor.
The reason why we don't see a change in Cabal's numbers, could be down to the T-80UD's, which are the Ukranian made diesel engined version of T-80U.
These are still rotting away at Kostroma.
@@kjj26k Besides, they are quiet. Have you noticed that when a helicopter approaches, you first hear the noise of the propellers, and only when it gets close enough you can hear the howl of the engine. A high frequency of noise means a short range of its propagation. In addition, this tank has rubberized rollers and tracks. He just needs a stealth coating that reduces radar visibility and a system that mixes exhaust with outboard air from the armata that reduces thermal visibility, as a result, a stealth tank can turn out.
@@jimmothron7976 what's the point? a simple FPV drone with strapped RPG is the worst enemy of tanks today...
Kudos to the amount of time and effort you put into a video like this one, it's very interesting to see the state of Russia's hardware situation and makes sense when watching footage from the war in Ukraine.
agreed- can't imagine there is much of a pay-off for all the time and resources invested in a video like this. Sadly, I dont have the funds to throw around to support this type of work because this guy does deserve it. Thank you to those who do help.
Can’t believe I stumbled upon this channel again, I swear I remember you having an old video on the Arleigh Berke vs some Russian missile cruiser, if you did whatever happened to it?
It was interesting to see the mechanics loading the tank's accordion-launcher but I couldn't quite tell if it was an old "dumb" accordion or the new long-range GPS-guided variant.
Still didn't run out
Simply amazing video. As someone else said this is an example of what good humans do for the good of the world. Amazing. Thank you.
When they leave a few tanks scattered around the field, I think that indicates those tanks are very damaged, possibly even totally inoperable.
So? What is the vetdict? When will they have 0 tanks?
About 14 years ago I did a change of command for a legacy unit. Incoming commanders have to sign for the items on the MTOE.
I was quite likely the first person in decades to actually do a full count/accountability for record in decades. It took me weeks and i had to travel to get it done as equipment was scattered far and wide.
Previous commanders had just pencil whipped that thing and called it good.
By the end of my count the BC came down and basically told me to knock it off... i.e. dont do a real count after my paperwork hit his desk. Millions of missing equipment to include an entire excavator... This is in the US.
To make my point... Nobody, not even Russia really knows what the have left because for decades grift and laziness have made the paperwork worthless. And they're far far worse at it then the US is.
And you know that how exactly? Did you serve in both countries? Or are you just saying that to feel better about the travesty your own military has become? Nevermind missing excavators, your active nuclear missile silos are used for raves! Entire military bases are run more like mexican prisons, with underage prostitutes, rampant drug use, stolen weapons, people disappearing etc.
sounds about right :)
"How Long Does Russia Have Left?"
Wait......did I miss the answer to that question?
What I have heard is that T55 and T62 tanks unlike newer variants were still intended to have indirect fire support as a secondary function so they basically come with artillery sights as standard. That might be the main reason why these very old tanks are put on the battlefield.
I was in the 1st Armored Div. in 1982, Doctrine then was that "when the ballon goes up", the ruskies would send waves of tanks, starting with the oldest and then work to the newest last....Odds are, after missing on the big 3 day takeover, they've slowly kinda switched back to a modified type of this doctrine to save the best for last....
That would work with the tanks themselves, but not with the already-scarce tank crews.
Their was never plans for a 3 day take other they knew it would take several weeks and likely several months. It is true that the war went on far longer than they ever wanted but no russian expected it to be as short as 3 days its just an exaggeration of relati5y and made up western propoganda. Where does the 3 days myth come form as putin never said it
They earned this shortage themselves.
Love to see an update on this - when it makes sense to do one. It's been 3 months, and for the past couple months, Russian losses have skyrocketed, and the last few weeks alone, Russians losing 10+ tanks a day has been pretty common. If they're burning through 2x to 3x as many tanks as before, they're probably hustling to replace them with refurbished/repaired ones, and we might be able to get a better idea of how many "good" tanks they have left as well as how long they can burn through them before losing a significant portion of the capability they have now. For instance, taking your numbers of 3500 or so "good tanks", if they're losing 10+ a day, then in 1 year instead of 3, they'll be having some serious problems. Love the vid and look forward to an update.
If you want to figure out what's going on, if you can calibrate images, you might be able to get the compaction of soil from fresh tank tracks. That's probably easier than trying to determine if a tank is good or bad from 4 pixels. You'll need more than rgb for that. Don't know the going rate for satellite images, I usually just scrape up whatever free ones i can find!
12:03 But the real question is, how many tactical accordeons can Russia fit in one anti-capitalist tank?
I think Russia is trying to use up the older tanks while they are gearing up the Omsk plant for the new T-80 production line and are sorting out the existing T-80's in storage so when they start producing the parts they can quickly refurbish the T-80's to the new production line models while buying more time for the total production suppliers to get setup.
The new t80 production is vapourware. They dont have any realistic ability to set up a new production line from scratch in any reasonable timeframe. Heck, they can't even get all the workers they need for the current t90 /t72 /t62 production/refurbishment lines.
@@phoenix211245
Is it gonna be the same vaporwave as the imminent loss of artillery production last year?
Even the "I actually know what's really going on, I watch Perun and Kraut" type people aren't immune from fog of war or propaganda.
I'm not saying that Russia doesn't have labor shortages, but to write off an entire factory as "fake never gonna happen Potemkin village paper tiger only the West can actually do things" attitude is secretly wishful thinking.
@@LancesArmorStriking My concern would not be that Russia cant build a new tank plant but do they have enough skilled slack labor, machine tooling, and input parts to make it function. Also with the higher wages being offered to contract soldiers and war industry workers there will be high consumer side inflation if civilian light industry cant also be built and maintained.
@@hobbiesofstefs7085
...So it sounds like you don't think they can build a new tank plant. You listed all of the things that distinguish a tank factory from a normal building.
Why not just say "I think Russia is capable of erecting an empty building-
(I guess not even the most rapid haters can deny that- maybe if we were talking about China though?)
-but they can't do literally anything else"?
@@hobbiesofstefs7085
And we'll see what they can really accomplish. They've subverted expectations before. Virtually every prediction surrounding russia's ability to handle a conflict has failed so far.
They didn't crumble under sanctions, they didn't get isolated, they didn't run out of ammunition, they didn't fall to Wagner, they didn't lose in the summer... after a while you have to question whether the information that these channels are basing their analyses on is accurate at all. "This time it's different" doesn't work when you've said that every time before.
I guess my question is what specifically makes this new claim more likely than all the past ones?
I love this kind of videos, because they age the best
Also its obvious why they send the old stuff in - because they are saving their nice stuff back - its like stock rotation, you use the old stuff before the new stuff.
Very good analysis, thanks for your work. I found RU has lost lots of old type of T-80s in this year. Just curious where might they come from since the number of t-80 storages didn't drop a lot.
Perhaps the T 80s that were in service as part of the initial invasion and subsequent transfer of reserve units.
They were located at the borders for defensive purposes. Eastern Russia is currently mostly undefended.
They come from Oryx publishing pics from the SBU which made multiple shots from the same tank
I think Russia subscribed to the daily tank delivery from 'Hello Trash' 😅
Two things that seem worthy of highlighting:
1. Even when using Russia's tank production numbers (which are likely inflated), their army is still far from being able to recover their losses.
2. The war could have change dramatically if Russia had bothered to build more garages and storage areas to keep their MBTs in better condition.
Yeah being a storage manager in the russian army was for very a long a dead end job. It was basically the end of your military career and boring af so they didn't care about the hardware and sold off stuff from time to time.
Have you considered some tanks from one base could have been moved to another as another margin of error? What are your thoughts about it?
How many self propelled artillery and air defense pieces do they have left? That’s prolly more relevant
Remeber when “experts” said russia run out of missiles last year lol
They have run out of their missile stockpiles, as every reliable source has said.
Russian missile strikes are much less frequent as all of them come straight from factories. Their pre war stockpiles are completely gone.
They did. They now fire them as they produce them and had to buy drones from Iran.
@@techtical7079 literally 2 more weeks
@@chucksneedmoreland What's that even supposed to mean?
Playing the according for the mechanics will help create happy tanks
we note a recent sharpening of rear-area RF logistic/force-regen procedures...
New war DLC dropped , I think they have to patch the Russia - Ukraine campaign.
@@Birdhatterhave to keep logistics in mind ..... I'm thinking the allies will keep Ukraine in the game .. good for business