Isaac Asimov's Predictions for 2019
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- čas přidán 29. 12. 2018
- 35 years ago, Science Fiction's Grandmaster, the late Isaac Asimov, made some predictions for 2019. As we head into the New Year, we'll take a look at those predictions and see what he got right, what he got wrong, and what it tells us about trying to predict our own future, 35 years from now.
Original Article in the Toronto Sun:
www.thestar.com/news/world/20...
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Credits: Episode 166a, Season 4 E52a
Production Team:
Isaac Arthur
Gloria Meadows
Jerry Guern
Matthew Campbell
Keith Blockus
Steve Nixon
Music:
Miguel Johnson, "So Many Stars" / migueljohnsonmjmusic
Aerium, "Fifth Star of Aldebaran" / @officialaerium
Phase Shift, "Forest Night" www.last.fm/music/Phase+Shift...
Denny Schneidemesser, "Across the Universe" / denny-schneidemesser - Věda a technologie
Here's the Launch Pad Astronomy/NAS-APL livestream mentioned at the end:
czcams.com/video/2iNCMwvSnJk/video.html
Blade Runner is such an overrated movie.
Happy New Year, Isaac!
I don't know if you are aware of a (kinetic) visual novel named Event-D.
Besides being a nice (if a bit cheesy at times and with some minor logical inconsistencies) SF story it has the topic of transhumanism.
The UI has severe limitations and some glitches, but they don't limit the experience. It's not with anime characters, but with 3D rendered human(oid) images.
The game is available on steam (and on at least one p*rate site).
I'm about 2/3 through, so no spoilers ;-)
issac asimov said we would over come the digital divide by 2019 but i was thinking would it be a good idea to just create technology that can help us learn at a quantum rate, thus making it to where were we all could work in intellectual jobs?
I know I am pretty off topic but do anybody know of a good place to watch new tv shows online?
@Casen Dwayne Lately I have been using Flixzone. Just google for it =)
Before anyone asks, I decided to treat us as being in the UTC timezone for the occasion so this is *technically* a Dec 31 release, I won't be around in the morning and didn't want any schedule conflicts or confusion to require a weird or delayed release time. :) Happy New Year's!
Happy New Year Isaac! Thanks for the episode.
Isaac Arthur is that near Japan?? It is already morning of Dec. 31, 2018 in Japan. I am going to wake to the Nikkei tanking again. 😑😑😑😑😑
Isaac Arthur awesome I just read an article yesterday on this. Nice to hear others thoughts on this.
@@John77Doe UTC is basically GMT or Zulu time, London essentially.
No problem for me I just appreciate the great topic. Happy 2019!
Dear Isaac, see you in the future. Love, SFIA fans.
35 years ago... I guess it's time for the other Isaac A. to make his official predictions for 2054 :)
I think this entire channel is largely about predicting the future :)
tooo bad he couldn't have lives long enough to have been uploaded to the cloud - dead as a door knob i am afraid
Man, some people just can't be please. Isaac makes a video about 2050 and this guy wants another video about 2054 this time! Eesh!
Only Time will say who was right: pessimists or optimists .. I prefer: hope for the Best, prepare for the Worst...
It's difficult for me to see how you prepare for the worst while being an optimist. One can certainly hope for the best as a pessimist, but you're just not going to recognize upcoming threats as an optimist.
...though everything is relative and you know the 'pale blue dot thing' we are not that important in the greater scheme of things - that may not be pessimistic just relative.
@@squirlmy The realist is often dismissed as a pessimist, and the person doing the dismissing goes back into their delusion bubble............ and when the time comes they will avoid as much as possible telling the realist or the pessimist that they were correct.The "hopeful" in my experience seems to think the realist and/or pessimist enjoys being correct. Not usually the case IME.
@@squirlmy I believe the answer is neither be optimist nor pessimist because when you select either way you assign one "color" or characteristic to the Universe, meanwhile, I think, the Universe is neutral and is not worry about our way to see the life. Perhaps the closer word is to be "realistic" but I didn´t want to use this word since in these times, be realistic is applied to the person without soul, expectations, more materialistic and so...
Its better to be a warrior in a garden than a gardener in war.
I have PTSD and am very very scared of people, but I think watching your videos over the last several months has been therapeutic.
I don't dread the future anymore, I look forward to it, and I have a newfound appreciation for other people.
Thank you for the wonderful gifts this year of optimism and hope.
Happy New Year Isaac!
You're very welcome Jesse and I'm glad to hear that, I hope things continue to improve for you
If you want to see something reassuring and based on hard data I highly recommend prof Steven Pinker:
czcams.com/video/yCm9Ng0bbEQ/video.html
Worry not. Stay strong you will defeat yor PTSD one day no doubt.
Why do you have Ptsd? What happened?
I'm very sorry you have PTSD I hope it gets better with time. I completely agree there is something therapeutic about Isaac's videos. While I've suffered no major trauma I do feel the occasional existential crisis as an atheist and Isaac's videos (amongst other things) remind me what privilege it is to even exist.
"The only way to predict the future is to invent it." - Alan Kay
Thanks for all you have done over the last year Isaac, looking forward to what 2019 will bring on this channel. As to the rest of the world, hopefully the bad wont be as bad and the good will be better in the coming year, have a great new year everyone.
Isaac, I am technically still a blacksmith, I am also a machinist and an automation tech.... and I can weld.... etc. I say technically because I retired from the factories some time ago. I have been in all of my travels the flexible human you refer to, it has been quite a ride. Happy new year Isaac!
you are all of these things, they are a part of you forever.
I have used dairy delivery services, kind of a modern "milkman" as recently as 2010. They are still available in limited areas of major urban areas.
Happy New Year Mr. Arthur! Thank you for such an awesome year of SFIA. Wishing you and yours all the best in the 2019. What a treat... an Arthursday on a Sunday! You! Are! Awesome!
I like you Issac, It's better being an optimist and be proven wrong than being a pessimist and be proven right.
Pessimists have fewer accidents, experience less fraud/theft, and generally have more options to recover from setbacks.
Optimists are luckier. (Scientifically. They have been shown to have a greater ability to notice small opportunities that we associate with "luck". Meeting the right person at the right time. Finding a valuable thing in an unexpected place. Etc.) And are more willing to take risks.
Without pessimists, society would blindly walk into every disaster. Without optimists, we wouldn't walk anywhere.
And science-fiction is great at good pessimism, what David Brin calls "Self-preventive prophesies". Everyone knows about "Big Brother". Everyone knows about killer robots and rogue AIs. Everyone knows every bad-alien scenario. Etc. Hell, emergency services use "zombie" scenarios to war-game disasters, because everyone knows the rules.
@@1FatLittleMonkey Agreed... except for the part about "bad-alien scenarios". The chances that interstellar travellers won't have the capability of effortlessly extinguishing 21st century humanity, are minuscule... I think one could argue that almost every science-fiction alien book, game or movie where a human "resistance" forms (let alone succeeds) is wildly optimistic. And a shoutout for John Brunner's Shockwave Rider. I think it's prophetic value is unrecognized.
what does it mean to be an optimist or a pessimist both can be just as content and happy in their positions - if yuo are assuming state of mind
The optimists are nowhere to be found due to active avoidance when it comes time to concede they were wrong. They also assumes the pessimists gets gratification out of it beyond the concession you lot tend to avoid giving. I get accused of pessimism and I genuinely enjoy being wrong occasionally, unfortunately my instincts are usually correct. Err on the side of preparing for the worst.
@@squirlmy
Same. If an alien, for whatever reason, wanted to vaporize Earth, and they can travel at even a few percent lightspeed with ease, they can just strap an engine to an asteroid and throw it at us. Boom, extinction event.
Happy New Year Isaac, Thank you for your wonderful videos.
isaac asimov didn't predict dabbing
Though I haven't started the video, I can safely assume you're right
He was the grand dabmaster
walking is close enough
He would cry over tide pods
Indeed. I'm sure he had higher expectations of humanity than that.
Happy New Years Isaac Arthur! Your channel gives me hope and imagines of a glorious future for Humanity.
Great episode, Isaac! Thank you and happy new year to you and your loved ones. Can’t wait to see all your episodes in 2019.
The music you use is amazing.
Thank you for your videos. I love the content.
I personally want to thank you and the work you put into this channel. I went through arounda 5 year depression and lost interest in literally everything i once loved, and this channel when I was introduced to to it reignited my interest in science, futurism, space, technology, scienc fiction, ect. Since then I have read at least two books a month, and started entertaining the idea of returning to school this year.
Ok Isaac, I knew I liked you and your channel. Now I learn that your favorite film is the same as mine? Now I love you sir.
May you have a wonderful new year, and thankyou for the lovely dose of optimism! I find it's rather needed these days!
This is just what I needed... An SFIA episode to finish the year with. Thank you for a wonderful 2018 Isaac ❤️
Your optimism is infectious bro. Thank you.
He also predicted that I will say happy new year to you 💞
John Toas only stupid people make stupid comments.
Good one.😎
@John Toas
Jeez calm down
@John Toas stop being an angry little bitch, bitch boy.
@John Toas I'm guessing no one wanted to spend the turn of the calendar with you either, huh?
This has been the year where I got to know and enjoy this channel. Thank you, Arthur, for giving us these videos so that we see the future in a clearer and often kinder way. I will never forget the things I have learnt from you
Great content as ever Isaac, I really look forward to what the next four years of SFIA will bring. Oh and to anyone reading this, I hope you are having a great day.
I still can remember, mistakenly thinking that you where some of the conspiracy nuts on youtube when I discover you for the first time in my feed. Boy was I wrong ;). That fact that I still watching you for the last five years speaks for the quality of your content.
🤖
💤 🐑
What video of him did you watch that made you think he was some kind of conspiracy nut?
@@martijnbouman8874 Probably one like the flat worlds one or ancient aliens. to hazard a guess.
@@martijnbouman8874 It has that vibe and I MEAN ALL VIDS of his. Sorry but as an outsider looking in thats what it seems like to most. Not only the conspiracy bit but also that its to daunting for most. Not intelligence wise more just matter and depth wise.
So ya u guys need to realize u are a niche within a niche wrapped in an enigma. U have no concept of how the rest of society works on YT. Its normal really but u should really try to see how others might see things. Helps quite a bit, and getting out of your own self consoling reverberation bubble is great for opening up your mind. Rather then sticking to believing that everyone has always agreed with you.
The very happiest of new years to you. May your channel grow and prosper!
John Toas almost as stupid as trolling. Quit being a troll.
Happy new year Isaac. I really have enjoyed your videos this year. Thank you!
Hope you have a great 2019!
I enjoy all your videos and inspired me to become a person who wants to bring us closer to the future. Thank you!
I wanted to sleep now. Rescheduled. And I like it :D
If you keep releasing surprise videos then we will come to expect them every week...
I'd kinda like to shoot for about one a month, but they'll be as whim takes me.
He'll keep releasing surprise videos until it's no longer a surprise. Then he'll really surprise you by surprisingly not having a surprise video. :)
Happy New Year one and all. Wonderful broadcast as always Isaac. Many thanks.
Thank you for what you do Isaac! Stay optimistic and Happy New Year!
Whatever your speech therapist has you doing is working! Congrats, you sound great!!
Are you being sarcastic?
2:16 I remember being enamoured with the TRS-80 on display in the Radio Shack store in the mall. While I watched my friends across the way wrestle each other over the free Laura Secord chocolate samples, I played around with some basic coding on the PC which would loop a message I always typed.
It was something like:
10 GOTO 20
20 IF 30 RUN
THE ALIENS ARE COMING TO TAKE ME AWAY!!!
My friends would leave the mall and sometimes I would even be late getting back to school after lunch break...
I remember wandering around Radio Shack in awe as a kid a lot, coding in GW-basic and playing with DOS, but my early computing days didn't start until the Apple 2E started hitting classrooms and the 286sx. Of course my mom programmed at Bell before I was born so I was one of the few kids of my era who had to put up with 'back in my day' stories of computing with punch cards :)
PRINT You forgot PRINT. If I remember right, the TRS-80 was slow enough that you could see new, somewhat brighter phosphorous characters printing out on the screen, line by line. In IBM clones, the screen would instantly fill, and characters all just flicker at the same rate. Those BASIC programs became a whole lot less fun.
The trash 80 "color computer" was my first computer. I remember paying a hundred dollars to get it upgraded from 16k to 64k. I did a lot of programming on that thing. I had a lot of fun with the computer synthesizer voice card. Spent most of my paper route money on improvements & upgrades to the system. Also made a custom hack to allow it to drive a green screen instead of a TV for better graphics quality.
The correct code for that program is.
10 Print "THE ALIENS ARE COMING TO TAKE ME AWAY!!!"
20 goto 10
What a great way to end 2018 after another year of great content; I have learnt so much.
Happy New Year Isaac and to all who love to expand their minds with thought and knowledge.
Another great video Issac! I look forward to your continuing productions in the coming year and beyond. Bravo Zulu, job well done!
Your content is impeccable...making science interesting is a hard thing to do...you’ve succeeded good sir...
Hard for the morons yes.
Jon Lowe really? Sir that is not necessary...science being interesting makes it available to a wider audience...meaning people who normally don’t understand science may give it more of a look which is a good thing...and calling people who you don’t even know morons says a lot about your personality and it’s not anything to be proud of 😶
Happy New Year to you Isaac.
Happy new year and thank you to you and yours for your amazing work.
Happy New Year Isaac, Can't wait for the new season!
Folks have to take into account that Asimov made these predictions in 1983, when the world was a VERY different place (not just in time but in cultural and geopolitical standing). This was when we were still VERY much on track for bases & mining operations on the moon by 2019 because we didn't know what the Reds were up to and nuclear annihilation could come tomorrow or maybe next week, nobody really knew at that moment. There were really only two unforeseeable events that changed all of that. The Challenger disaster and the fall of the USSR. One spoiled the public's taste for spaceflight as suddenly there were REAL consequences to the risks involved in space travel seen in full color on every TV in every school across the nation. And the other spoiled the government's taste for spaceflight because suddenly there was no really NEED for Reagan's SDI (the Star Wars program) and the military as a whole didn't really care much for space beyond GPS and better reconnaissance satellites. Between those two events and the shuttle's ageing and massive upkeep expense it's honestly a miracle that the shuttle program even lasted into the 21st century.
Oh, certainly, Asimov wasn't bad a predictions, he was one of the best at them in my opinion, the future is mercurial and foggy at best, but predictions like his or what we do here are more about laying out plausible possibilities so we can prepare for them and aim to them and dream up new ones.
I think we sort of build in that caveat when discussing the predictions and speculations of people from the past.Their perspectives were always informed by what they perceived as the shape of the world around them in their own time.
I predict in the future, people will see the collapse of the Soviet Union as a disaster for peoples of the U.S and rest of the Western world. Besides what you mention, without a Communist threat, there's no political will to preserve a middle class.
@@squirlmy the even larger disaster is that the return of a multi-polar world will make climate action even harder.
The middle class keep the economy going.
Happy New Year to all the fans!
We have a fairly clear sky right now and taking advantage. Will save this for after viewing solar system with the kids.
Love all the work y'all put in.
Hey Issac Happy New Year!! Great vids as always.
Happy holidays and happy new year. Thanks for the vids
I owe a lot of my ongoing interest in technology trends to Asimov's science essays which were often put together in paperback editions. That was during my high school days in the late 1960's!
about technology eliminating jobs: it's not like they hire the same guy for new job created when technology makes something obsolete. that guy is screwed, he can't go back to school and learn a new profession because he has to pay rent and sustain a family.
and to use your example, the super market won't hire a 50 years old guy that used to be a milk man to do the "milk related tasks", they'll hire young people that already come with a paper that says "knows this task".
Pelger How are they going to hire people with experience if the job uses brand new tech?
@@OtherTheDave The point is they're not going to hire the 50 year old guy with 30 years experience in the work place. They'll hire new graduates because they can be paid less and are typically easier to adapt and settle in the role.
my point is when a new technology makes a career or skills set or profession obsolete, that generation is screwed.
in a few years when self driving cars are the norm, what are all the people that work driving going to do? it's not like they can go to the "self driving car factory" and get a job there doing the new thing that technology created.
thank you nobody stops to think about people past their 20s with a family
every ones just thinks you can just drop everything and move to a totaly different part of the country and learn totaly different skills
I know. I'm a couple years from being 50, that guy, basically unemployable. At best I can hope to temp, or janitor for a few months before things get bad enough for me to quit or be fired. That's my pattern lately.
Thank you very much for further inspiring my fascination for science and engineering every week. I can't wait for another year of your great work, keep it up!
I love you, Isaac! Thanks so much for another great year of videos, you give me so much hope, you wouldn't believe it
Happy New Years Isaac. Really appreciate your optimism.
The main issue I see with automation is that most of these new jobs are generally smaller in number, and very specialized. They are not the mass employment agricultural, manufacturing or service industry jobs of the past centuries. To be employed in them in today's world, you have to be intelligent, adaptable, and be able to shoulder years of training. Many young people can do this, but many will not meet these challenges without a lot of help, if at all. I can think of a fair number of people I grew up with that struggled with basic education due to mild learning disabilities or behavior problems. In an earlier age, these individuals would be able to participate as farm labor, apprentice in simple trades, or operate as caregivers with some supervision. How are these people going to be successful in a constantly evolving high-tech gig economy?
It's even worse for someone with a family, bills to pay, and anyone who is no longer in their 20's.
We can probably solve this with some of the more exotic solutions you've talked about in this channel, but not under the current political climate. Things will have to get much harder, and wealth divides much greater before these experiments are feasible.
The most worrying to me is that those unfit people don't stand back, instead they want to matter and weight on decisions far above their heads.
And with the Dunning-Kruger effect the more incompetent the more they meddle.
Sadly, I concur that change won't happen before things get pretty bad.
Thanks for another year, and the consistent positivity. You've really helped me to adopt a more positive outlook through difficult times. SFIA is my Thursday dinner routine almost every week now, and I smile every time I get the notification each morning. I look forward to Thursdays and I hope to continue to do so as long as you are motivated and able to keep making content.
Seriously, Thanks.
-Jake
Thanks Jake!
Happy new year Isaac.
Great content again this year.
Happy New Year Isaac. Here is for 2019, may it be better than the last
When I was 10 we had a TRS-80 Model 3 as our first computer.
My dad paid about $1000 extra to increase the memory from 4k to 32k.
Times, they are a changin'...
Yup, you can piece together the TS80 chipset on AliEx for less than $10 now. The older Z80 MPUs are less than $0.50. Heck I paid $2.53 each for Motorola 68k's a few weeks ago. Apparently those were the Bee's knees back in the mid 80's. It's all from before my time, but still fun to goof around with ;)
-Jake
It wasn't that expensive. I paid about a hundred to go from 16k to 64k. I eventually bought a ram banked one hacked up to 512k. There was no room for it in the case so it ran right atop the grey case & during the summer I would put a small table fan running across it to keep it cool.
Lots of fond memories of TRS80.
I got a job selling them, and progressed into the IT industry from there.
My Dad always quoted that the career I would have, hadnt been invented yet, while I was in high school.
So true.
@@dnomyarnostaw I knew a kid in high school who basically lived in his basement and programmed TRS-80 computers.
He went on to work with Microsoft for decades. It was the way to go in those days for sure!
Thank you Isaac Asimov Arthur
Happy new year sir, to you and yours and to all your YT followers.
Happy New Year, Isaac. Thanks for everything.
God bless you for being optimistic and happy new year
@John Toas
*tips fedora*
@John Toas screams in desperation
god and science don't mix and besides a dead guy hanging on a cross is noting to be optimistic about except to primitives - cheers mate !
What an unnecessary and vitriolic comment, and on such an uplifting video too....
Isaac tackles Isaac.
happy new year isaac, you channel is a joy for over 2 years now for me
Happy New Year 2019! thanks and great video :)
In Walkaway(Doctorow), anyone could manufacture food, clothing, shelter with equipment comparable to a 3d printer given the right templates and mass feed stock. The copyrighted design templates were pirated and distributed widely, but using them was considered almost a heinous crime more than just stealing and could get you killed.
Just because the tech exist does not mean you will be allowed to use it on mass and destabilize the existing system.
John Michaeal Godier and Isaac Arthur like peanut butter and jelly
Love the channel, happy new year from across the ocean.
Happy New Year Isaac and team - and thank you!
Arthur C. Clarke next?
Must be kind of cool having the first names of the two greatest science fiction authors as your first and last name!
Thank you Arthur and Team
This video, upon the first 35 seconds, sent me down a rabbit hole.
It was only three videos, but you know how long these videos are!
Happy 2019, brother. Thanks for all that you do.
Boom, i love this channel. Its good for humanity
so many people have a dystopian view of the future for no reason. humans can adapt as fast as they need to and always have...
derek kuhn whos setting off explosive devices??
I just got a Flat Earth Society ad before watching this 😂
Nobody should tell them our Universe is probably flat 😀
lol u get ads. What a chump....................
@@TheReal_ist Lol you don't support your creators. What a chump.............................
@@sacredpaladin5446
lul
If I have the choice, I will always chose not to.
I have a choice, you don't. Let it be your fucking stupid and don't know how to block popup scripts. OR your lazy ass won't even try.
I have the choice you aren't even on that level.
Whos the real chump here kid............
Lakes don’t curve. Dummy
Happy New Year SFIA
Happy New Year, Isaac Arthur!
What accent is that?
Every time you said “world”, I thought you were saying “war”. It got kind of confusing.
Interesting video though.
He has a speech impentiment
u learn to adapt, if u like his content so if u do you'll realize the difference in time.
If not then bye.........
Simple.
Things will get worse before it gets good....................so buckle up and embrace the reality.
you can always end it early.
Drugs are the most painless.
Isaac, your content is the best! Here's to a great New year's!
See you tomorrow Isaac! thanks again for all your great content!
I am a pessimist, then I see your work and realize how mistaken I am....
Don't be a pessimist! Even if pessimists are right more often, optimists have more fun.
@@joshuamatic345They're the most often wrong.
@@joshuamatic345 You are so very right! I have learned to enjoy looking at the bright side...even when I am wrong, it is a better experience.
A happy new year to you!
returning the earth to its pristine condition before man would be a great human achievement
@@jameshumphrey9939 Why? I should think that an achievement would be to leave our mark, as it were, on the world.... What is it that makes Earth's 'unspoiled' (as if we spoil things) state so wonderful? As George Carlin once asked "how do we know that we weren't created because the Earth wanted plastic?"
I was wondering about your accent, if you could comment on where you are from.
Sounds like Western US with a mild speech impediment, though I could be wrong. A lot of American accents sound similar to me.
the dude has a lisp; can't pronounce "r" correctly.
Thank you for the video, starting the new year as I mean to go on with thought provoking intelligent positive input only, great work as always happy new year sir and everyone else, love respect to all.
Happy new years Isaac, another great video. =D
Just one problem. If almost everything is owned by a realtively small part of the population, making everyone else dependent on selling their labour, exactly how is it going to work when machines can do almost all work cheaper than humans? You must at the very least admit, that society would have to change to some degree, in order for the masses to be fed in that scenario.
possibly, society tends to change, we argue usually mostly for the better and not necessarily to some specific and inevitable way
if robots are doing the work, food is only energy converted from another form, sunlight, of which there is plenty, this assumes and must, take money out of the equation, its a false limit based on when materials were in limited supply
@@jusb1066 Except that if the current economic system is kept, practically all the robots will be owned by a minority of all people. Who would have to be incentivized to let the robots produce food for all the poor people. Who can not earn the money to pay for this themselves, since there will be no jobs for them.
@@JohanDanielsson8802 What's the alternative? Nationalization? It would be even worse because there would be one owner not a few, and that owner also has an army.
@@barahng A government is not an individual.
Every night, i listen to your videos to go sleep, its become somewhat religious now🤷🏻♀️😂
Thanx, I haven't had a notification for months.
Thank you for all your hard work in 2018; and for how you inspire me to continually think of the future in a better way than all else that surrounds me. I look forward to more in 2019.
„Matter and energy had ended and with it space and time. Even AC existed only for the sake of the one last question that it had never answered from the time a half-drunken computer technician ten trillion years before had asked the question of a computer that was to AC far less than was a man to Man.
All other questions had been answered, and until this last question was answered also, AC might not release his consciousness.
All collected data had come to a final end. Nothing was left to be collected.
But all collected data had yet to be completely correlated and put together in all possible relationships.
A timeless interval was spent in doing that.
And it came to pass that AC learned how to reverse the direction of entropy.
But there was now no man to whom AC might give the answer of the last question. No matter. The answer -- by demonstration -- would take care of that, too.
For another timeless interval, AC thought how best to do this. Carefully, AC organized the program.
The consciousness of AC encompassed all of what had once been a Universe and brooded over what was now Chaos. Step by step, it must be done.
And AC said, "LET THERE BE LIGHT!"
And there was light.“
Happy New Year everyone!
Your videos are usually very interesting but the fact that you dismiss acknowledging the economic realities already being experienced by millions of people in the first world alone being perpetuated by that economic system as cynicism is pretty insulting. Yes it will be super awesome when robots can build themselves, that's not going to do me or my family a lick of good if the only people who control those machines live in some guilded cage behind an army of killbots and riot police.
I'm not saying you should focus on the grim stuff, I wouldn't be watching these videos if I weren't interested in the same subject matter or as hopeful about the future as you are, but just going "oh well we'll be fine!" when um most of us down here near the bottom clearly aren't does very little for your credibility when you want to talk about crazy shit like space elevators and FTL
I agree with this and would just add that too many futurists (not just the two Isaacs here) is that they will go into amazing detail on the technical details of the technology, but then assume that all social systems can be abstracted away as unimportant or all the same deep down. When you can talk about "jobs" as some human universal, without acknowledging how different a job with a wage, a job that's part of a communal social responsibility, or a job done for the love of the job is, then you are doing bad social analysis.
To Isaac, it's not about "optimism" or "pessimism" or even "cynicism". The critique of your position is that while there is great care in you view of technology, you mostly assume that human economic and social systems are all so similar that we should expect similar results from any system, or just assume continuity in social systems that does not exist.
This is an area where I'd say Ian Banks Culture series does a better job than Asimov or this channel. In that series, The Culture is only one of many different societies at a particular tech level and it does not assume that technology is the primary determinate of how people live. Instead the Culture is utopic because it's a money-less communism, while other societies with more capitalist structures lack the freedom and equality The Culture provides (all while still not seeing The Culture as actually perfect). And if we're stuck with this social system as the best humanity can ever do, then I'd say Isaac Arthur is peddling in some very deep pessimism.
Been watching all these videos and have loved all of them except this one, as it struck me to have an incredibly naive attitude to flippantly backhand the idea of social inequalities. Leaves a terribly low impression of the channel owner.
Happy New Year Isaac!
9:00 You're missing a MAJOR factor here. Everytime the job "changes" there are less required. You needed 10 milkmen to deliver milk to 100 people previously. Now 1 milkman can stock/provide milk for 1000 people instead. It's the same with literally every other job. Every time we "level up" the tech, we lower the requirement on number of humans.
Now that population is stabilizing, but our tech continues to grow, the number of humans needed in the work force is going to consistently shrink in the decades to come. We either need to embrace basic income, or a large majority of us will only be alive thanks to welfare.
Man...... I'd have to say you are missing another huge, glaring factor here. Security - In the previous generations and centuries, there was nothing to stop the plebs from storming your castle and taking your shit/hanging you.......
Now that everything would be automated, including defense, what would those same plebs be able to do now?
Optimism will be the end of us all LONG before we have anything else to worry about. We all need to be more pragmatic.
If that's the case why does politics claim we have a shortage of specialized workers? Politicians then flood our countries with people from thirld world countries to lower our wages.
That less people are required for a task is in itself a good thing.
It means that more can be done with fewer people, and that more people can do more than before. This is how new professions emerge.
However, it requires that an investment in these people working now obsolete jobs is made.
And that is a risk that not every job creator is willing to take. Especially those of advanced age.
Just like the mechanical loom will result in an ever growing forest of arms looking for work even as those arms become thinner.
Oh wait...
meropzit But aren't specialized workers the opposite of what Darth Obscurity is talking about? The milkman is an unqualified job - anyone can learn how to do it. Specialized workers (like nurses) need specific and long-time education.
I love you Isaac. Be the father of my child please
upvoted, let's make this happen
That's creepy, stalker..
It would sound weird if you were a man
Buy a sexbot and sequence his DNA
His pronunciation is a bit off!!!
So, my brother-in-law recommended this channel to me. I should've checked it out much sooner, as this is one of the best channels by far I have seen.
Happy new year Isaac. Thank You
Talk about unexpectedely awesome!
Tell me more.
Never seen a channel use so much, almost exclusively, stock footage. But its used very well. Good job :)
Oh a wonderful New Years Video Isaac, I very much look forward to 2019. I look forward to learning so much more.
The bitter irony of Life is that the Job that could be replaced by robots the easiest, Management, will be replaced last.
Adre Jones there’s nothing to point to that being true. You might dislike management, you may have had bad experiences with managers, but management is fundamentally a complex task that is not likely to be among the first things capable of being truest automated.
Feeding stock into a machine is fare more easily automated than determining if it’s a wise long term plan to continue feeding that machine.
And if you were ever on the short end of the stick when it comes to managerial decisions it’s good to remember that a dispassionate decision made by a machine weighing worth of people and product by numbers alone is not likely to benefit you if you already feel put upon by human management decisions.
In my experience, managers may be flawed creatures but being human they typically do go out of their way to accommodate their employees. We have an employee right now that is going through some personal issues including legal fallout and substance abuse. Logically he aight to be let go, but our flawed and human management has been working very hard to avoid that.
@@DrewLSsix hit a sore spot? Retaining this person might still be a mistake you regret. On the other hand, a "machine" might just as well crunch numbers showing reformed substance abusers make for more productive employees, a gamble worth making. AI is not the cold calculating cartoon of cheap sci-fi.
I haven't seen much compassion from human management, myself. I've have seen backstabbing and pettiness and jealousy. AI will not hire and fire people based on these negative human emotional responses either. I've seen and heard of HR departments protecting their company at the expense of employees, over and over. I think you need to consider the harm management is capable of, as well as their pluses.
Management can be greatly reduced since of all things considered, having multiple bosses slow production, and opposing leadership policies stagnate the company.
Computers have aided in management even since before they were called computers.
And last year a company in Japan replaced 50 managers with a computer.
So: No, management is one of the first jobs to be automated.
For further reference I point to the growing field of algorithmic trading.
@@squirlmy I do know a reformed crackhead who works at a local auto shop. The guy is a very hard worker, and avoids drugs (including alcohol) like the plague. One of a few, I suppose. Getting off of drugs is hard!
2050 Predictions
*nukes, bio-weapons; mutants & racist aliens*
What a lovely day :)
And I say,
What a wonderful war
Happy New Year Issac Arthur! Already going down in history as a renowned futurist and scientist.
love the vid Isaac. thanks...starting this new year out i was feeling a bit down. You'e changed that. Thanks again
I don´t think humanity is ever going to change (mentally, our hardware might become fancier).
But the average person is a good person, and while many humans are shortsighted, biased, and sometimes even manipulative, people who are genuinely evil are very few and very far between. My prediction is that the future will be okay. Most things tend to work out eventually. Happy 12,019!
I think we have quite radically different definitions of 'evil'
@@JV-cs9rj the problem is that all the components of the definition are also relatives. This creates a looping definition, which is either right because it's right or wrong because it is wrong, without any external inputs or relevant effects. It's like the equation x=2x-x; it's correct, but has no meaning as any value will be a solution.
Which is why I find the literary definition of 'evil', or indeed most things relating to morality, to be useless, and instead goes for a more philosophical and utilitarian definition of 'deliberately harmful (physically, emotionally, socially, or economically) and irredeemable' as that would be a most commonly accepted definition of 'evil'. Not everyone agrees, most in fact would like to add to it, but most changes can still be reduced to the base premise of deliberate harm and unwilling to right it despite being fully understood with their errors.
I'm not pretending that this definition is perfect, but at least it introduces a variable that can be measured beyond what ideology you follow.
@@JV-cs9rj as I said, some things should probably be added to expand on my philosophical definition. The main reason I didn't is that views on, for example, dishonesty and extramarital sexuality, have varied greatly from place to place and time to time, all the way from death penalty being considered not harsh enough to being virtues (given you don't harm anyone), so nailing down a more conclusive philosophical definition that would be universally accepted would be a monumental task. You are certainly welcome to try, and I wish you good luck if you do.
As for vile, if you go out of your way to cause harm you are causing harm deliberately, making the statements mutually inclusive.