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Ultimately, it depends on who makes it to the final, when we know that then we can make a reasonable call as to meddalists.

Jakob is famished! His food was taken twice by a Brit. He wil win the gold.

Thanks for your analysis. In my opinion the race is about Jakob. He is the best and fastest, but there are a handful of top challengers. I do disagree about pacing - in many races Jakob is the pacer for most of the race. He has also shown over and over in the past 2-3 years than he runs his own race and sets his own lap pace (lights or not).

No proof .. no doping 1.41 is the actual time

do you think any athletes at Olympics final level are not on PEDS

I think Kerr will win. I want Jacob to win. Jacob would have to have someone willing to pace him. If Jacob wins the world record will fall.

Jakib

The stadium is just 1 meter smaller

They're on that Pogacar stuff😅

If jakob just goes to the front and runs 3:26 pace he will win

I'll be happy with any outcome as long as Kerr doesn't win. I cannot stand the guy. He win 1 major title after never really being relevant and he starts acting like he's always been a big shot

If Ingrebrigtsen had pacers to take the field through 1000m at WR pace, I would pick him, but given Kerr's indoor 3000m WR, I wouldn't be at all surprised if Kerr has the fitness to use Jakob as a pacemaker and out-kick him again. Should be a very close race, either way.

If the slow runners are taking peds It is what it is. Some even have doctor excuses

It will be interesting to see if sedjati goes for the 1500 metres as well as a 1500 m , originally . running Sebastian Coe type times and with a huge kick of very fast pace as well never mind Kerr as a danger sedjati is the danger to both of them.

I think Josh will win by 5 metres or less. It will be very close and could go either win but I say Josh takes it and overtakes ingebrigsten some time in the last 100m. People are saying ingebrigsten has insane fitness right now but he had insane fitness back in 2022 when he beat the indoor 1500m world record. A few months later though he came second in both the outdoor and indoor 1500m world championships. It will be difficult for ingebrigsten I think it’s his race to lose because I don’t think he can beat Josh by doing his standard tactic of leading from the front. This can be problematic without pacers. I also don’t think that ingebrigsten can allow this to be a slow race. If the average pace is around than 3:31-3:32 with 400m remaining then I think Ingebrigtsen will definitely get out kicked and maybe not just by Kerr. Jakob will have to hope someone else that leads from the front takes the race out at a good pace, then he could maybe try a midway surge where he goes to the front with 800m remaining or so. This kind of thing is risky though as overtaking runners midway through isn’t necessarily the most efficient way and there is a risk of him getting trapped/boxed in. Getting boxed in would be bad for Jakob as normally it’s not as big an issue because things often open up toward the end but Jakob can’t wait till near the end. If Jakob has a perfect strategy and a bit of luck with what the others are doing then I think he could win otherwise I think Josh takes it. It’s Jakobs race to lose he’ll have to be tactical and ballsy but not too confident.

I'd be v surprised if Jakob doesn't win. And regards tactics, surely he should just do a Rudisha (800m, London 2012) and run the final as a time trial? He knows exactly what pacing it takes to go 3:26.7 so why not execute that. If he does, I can't see anyone else going faster.

Is Kessler not a potential dark horse here. His 800m in the US trials must be of some ‘concern’ to the others. He seems to have a great head.

I really enjoyed your analysis and agree with you. We’re all looking forward to it 😊

It says everything that everybody states that the races Ingebrigtsen failed he came 2.

I'm gonna put my money on a dark horse, Cole Hocker. Cole gonna shock the world.

Your analysis is very good, although I have a few minor disagreements. It’s impossible to predict who will win the 1500M as too many variables and unknowns are in play. The main unknown is whether Ingebrigtsen has improved further following his Monaco 3:26.73 run. His progression after recovery from his Achilles injury has been startling. He may have a sub 3:26 (i.e. world record) in him sometime this year based on his results so far. If the pace is only solid (around or just under 3:29) and Ingebrigtsen leads fairly early we’ll probably have a replay of the last two world championships. That’s completely logical as Kerr following closely has a decided advantage with a slightly easier run sitting right behind. I believe Kerr has the fitness and ability to run a 3:27 but may struggle holding on if Ingebrigtsen can run a 3:26 (perhaps even low 3:27) leading almost all the way - far from easy to do at their level. Ingebrigtsen ran his spectacular 2 mile world record being on his own for the last three laps (albeit still with wave lights). An intelligent athlete runs to his strengths, not his weaknesses, so I can’t imagine Ingebrigtsen will tolerate a slow or even solid pace. Ideally he’d want a 1:50 to 1:51 800M and a 2:46 1200M, followed by a 40 second last 300M (53.33 second 400M pace to finish). That would probably blunt Kerr’s kick enough for Ingebrigtsen to win gold. It’s obvious to say it looks a match race between Ingebrigtsen and Kerr if the pace is at 3:29 or below, the faster the race being to Ingebrigtsen’s distinct advantage, of course. He looks to have the superior strength/endurance.

You deserve far more subs

Will be an amazing race. Kerr has the better kick and Ingebrigtsen has the fitness. But each are still incredible kickers with amazing amazing overall speed. I don't think Kerr's fitness is really much behind Ingebrigtsen. His 1500m PR is from 2021. At the Bowerman mile Kerr ran from the front the whole way and Ingebrigtsen just couldn't keep up. He also gapped Nuguse by a good margin in the same race. Maybe Ingebrigtsen wasn't in top shape, but it was still a convincing win. I'll go Ingebrigtsen, but man that last 100m should be a dog fight.

Great review, but your call is off. Jakob knows he has to pump up the pace to have a guaranteed win. He will do it. If he doesn't, he knows it can go either way, so he will. It would be a terrible game plan if he doesn't take it out hard.

I just want kerr to win again so jakob can eat his own words again lol

The faster the race/pace, the better.

It's not a time trial. It's a race. The best racer will win.

just test every top 3 finisher

This style requires that he breeze through rounds without effort. If they want to beat Jakob do it in the heats first

I think there’s a really good chance that Timothy and Jacob take it out hot together. They’re both in really good shape and it would benefit both of them which I assume they both would know. So considering Timothy will be there I’ll guess Jacob wins, if it was just Kerr vs Ingnabritsen probably 50/50

Everyone keeps talking about this 2, but the reality is someone may not make it to the final due to whatever reason

"The Olympics are just a few weeks away." Boy, the Olympics started today! They'll be over in a few weeks lmao

Great analysis and spot on. However Cole Hocker is gonna shock the worllllllld!!

J.I. rarely gets beaten by the same person twice. He'll more than likely win unless someone else can actually run much faster than him, and that person is most likely will come from an African country. Unlike the Diamond league, there are heats and no one really knows how much this takes out of the athletes, except they themselves. I imagine it will be a very close race.

Jakob has a much better kick than Kerr now… he closed in 52-53s to win European champs…

You mean thecrace for bronze, USA USA USA USA USA

This video should have a subtitle, "why trying to make sense of Track and Field can drive you mad". I think 95% of what you said is very logical and exactly the kind of stuff that goes through runners minds when trying to make sense of this all. One point I'd differ on, a pro/Olympic 1500m runner once said to me that never running a bad race was a red flag on the circuit for a doper. I.e. Normally an athlete will have a one or two stinkers in a year, so the super hi-po consistent athletes were, for this pro at least, the one's investing in the juice year round, as it's just not natural to be always on your game. Appreciate this POV only further serves to drive track fans mad.

Ingebrigysen reply to the question about pacers was perfectly reasonable and not at alll tetsty - he talks in a straight forward manner.

Cole Hocker wil be the man

12-2

Only sedjati is clean

Well Jacob has beaten Kerr a number of times in non-paced races . Most recently the 2021 Olympic Finals and 2022 WC Finals . And has much quicker times at every distance from 1500 to 5000 so, unless Jacob is sick (like he was in last years WC ) I think Jacob is the strongest and best 1500m runner in the world and will Win!

Jakob, Naguse, Timothy, Josh, at least 4 guys could win it and a few other surprises could also happen.

Kerr's 3:45 in the mile, which was run last Spring, translates to roughly 3:27 for 1,500m, which is well within range of Jakob's recent 1,500m time. Kerr took the lead in his mile race at about 600m out, showing his newfound strength, and he has since improved his fitness even more. Then again, so has Jakob. So, it could go either way. Would love to see Timothy Cheruiyot in the mix, too.

If I remember right, Kerr mixed it up by going to the lead and started pulling with about 600m to go in the Bowerman mile race this year.

The whole Jamaican tean needs to be checked, SAFP, erc.