The #1 Rookie Draft Strategy In Dynasty
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- čas přidán 23. 04. 2024
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I think this is the best video I have seen for rookie draft season
Refreshing to see a video about fantasy football that uses deeper analytics to go beyond the usual speculation. Good point at the end about data being objective. It's up to us to determine how significant the data is and what it's really telling us to do, but the numbers don't lie. Earned my sub and a like, gentleman. Keep up the good work.
Appreciate you!
You guys are my go to for dynasty info! I know you’ll guide me to a title in no time!
Appreciate it! Win that money baby
Best Dynasty video I've ever seen. Shoutout Chip and the Domain crew!
Loved this video, glad to be a part of the community now too! Still new to dynasty so all this data to back it up is great!
Ok guys, I disagree :-) You are comparing APD with fantasy performance, but you also need to take into account how strong a draft class is. Odunze is top WR prospect and would probably be the best WR in most draft classes, so I am still excited
True - this is a very strong class. Surely the 7 year sample size covered some very strong classes too though, and this is where the data ended up.
Odunze is a beast. Totally agree. Thanks for watching.
Completely agree with you. The data is nice to have, but it’s just data. It’s also why they said in the video if you really like the guy at adp, you take them. I think it’s valuable to acknowledge though that this year is an outlier to this data though.
So basically, ignore ADP because the community hypes up to many of the wrong players.
Last year for example. I took C.J Stroud 2.01 and Reed 3.4 in single QB full ppr league
More context
Richardson went 1.7 and Young went 1.11
There are 7 elite guys this year. I will take my chances with Bowers unless something awful happens in the draft. I appreciate the evidence and explanation but I’m going with my gut on this one. I could see trading down within the top 7 but I’m not getting away from those top guys.
One of the most useful rookie draft videos ever 🔥 Thanks guys!
80 degree weather and a Domain upload?
I’ll drink to that 🍻
Incredible value in this video, really great work thank you!!
Thanks so much!
'preciate you guys! And Chip 😅 love the unique videos and data you guys put out to us mediocre fantasy football players
Dang y'all are so smart - look at that data and your ability to articulate it! 🔥 We love to see it! I'm so proud of you guys and your team. 10k by May!!!! THANK YOU CHIP!
Nice work! Good advice guys!!
The only draft vid I need great work
Thank you!
Fantastic info guys!!! Love this video.
Thanks a ton!
Thank you Chip!
Great video fellas!
In a SF league I just traded the 1.03 and 3.01 for Anthony Richardson. Thought of the move by watching y’all’s videos. Thanks for the content.
Great work guys!
I know you guys are basing this on SuperFlex, but this logic doesn't apply to the WRs this year in start 1qb leagues, because the top 3 are going to be MHjr, Nabers, and Odunze. At worst Odunze 1.4 in TE prem. So if it's a WR you want, having the 1.05-1-12 you are significantly downgrading at WR.
Yes. True, this is superflex only. 1QB you’re correct.
pin this.
Thank you Chip!!!
Amazing content as always, thanks for all the hard work D.D Team.... Cant wait to whoop you two next season in the Fundy League!
Lol appreciate you!
Thank you, Chip!
Wow is this good intel! Thanks
Subscribed/Liked. Keep up the good work.
Appreciate it man.
Great research 👏 👌
Thanks Chip! You a dawg
Way to go Chip!!!
Great job guys!
Thanks a ton!
Thanks Chip!!!
Traded down from the 1.02 for the 1.04 and Pickens. Was pretty happy to get that deal
Thank you chip!
I’ve also traded back from the 1.09 to the 2.02 and Marquise Brown just a few days ago. This class is so stacked i knew the 2.02 would have value there.
Way to go Chip!
I just traded in 1QB, my 1.01 for the 1.04. Picked up Garrett Wilson and the 2.01 in the process. 🙏
Wilson 2.1 and BTJ for Harrison. Good value but it depends on Wilson honestly I think I stick to Harrison but can’t fault you for taking Wilson. I think his value drops this year if he doesn’t breakout
Thank you, Chip for the data and your shiny teeth that sparkle just like the stars in space
Nathan would never get this reference but I do because I’m awesome
@@thedynastydomain truly the man of the people and a man of culture
Last year I got Tyjae Spears at 3.02 and flipped him (plus a 3rd) in January for a projected late 2025 1st
Really good value.
Thanks chip
This is great to hear. I need RBs in a start 9 SF contending roster, and traded away the 2.08 + 4.04 for Chuba Hubbard and the 3.04. Based on this data seems like I didn’t lose much on the move back and picked up a potential starting RB
Feeling ecstatic about having 1.06, 2.01 and 2.02!!!
Thanks Chip
on the top-3 WRs: I dont disagree at all with the process of if you can trade back from MHJ or Nabers and get Odunze plus extra, you should do that. where I disagree is I think some prospects just aren't worth applying historical data to because of how rare those types of prospects are, and I think MHJ and Nabers (and Odunze) all have the talent to be significant outliers. it's a great class to trade back in if you're hard rebuilding, but if you're a contender that got 1.04/5 in a trade or something I think it's better to swing for the single player with top-5 upside at the position.
btw love the content as always boys, best dynasty channel on youtube.
Appreciate you!
@@thedynastydomain no u
DRAFT IS TOMORROW BOYS LEFTS F’N GOOOOO!!!!!
S/O Chip dawg
I'm liking the 3rd
Chip=MVP
Down graded off the 1.02 to the 1.04 and got Kupp and a 4th.
I’ve been trying to get off 1.06 to 1.02 or 1.03. In a 10 team league offered 1.06, 2.07 and 2025 3rd and neither will budge.
@@boldtaa I wouldn’t accept that either to be honest… probably gonna cost ur pick and late 1st this year or next. Wouldn’t do it though if your team is bad and gonna get a good pick next year. If you can’t would cost ur pick and a decent player instead
@@boldtaa I wouldn't have taken it either. To move up that much. I feel like another late first needs to be added. Ten team league not sure how deep teams are.
Good data - I would say this draft class seems to have more elite talent at WR/QB than the last 2 years. Pick 1.08-1.10 this year is likely the top RB/Week 1 starting QB. Players going at 1.10-1.12 this year would be 1.06-1.08 in the last few years
The 1.07 in this class is the 1.04-1.05 in a normal class. JSN went where, the 1.06 last year? One good year of production (albeit young with high college target comp) with an objectively bad landing spot. QJ went high despite looking like shit. You said this is the best offensive class you’ve ever seen just the other day. The WR analysis particularly does not apply to this draft class
Btw I know I refute y’all often but I fw the general analysis
Agree
Chip is Him
Atta boy chip!
Great content! I’m new to dynasty, I have a draft coming up in a 12 team, 1 QB, start 10. I’m in a rebuild and I ended up with the 1.04 and 1.05.
Does it make more sense to draft both picks or draft best player available at 1.04 and sell the 1.05?
Could be either! I’d say you’re drafting at 1.04 and then heavily shopping 1.05.
Great Vid!!!! So excited for my first Rookie draft 💪 just traded My M.Brown, Downs, 25 2nd for Kirk, 24 2.01 (1QB,10teamppr) any thoughts?
Nice trade!
Christian Kirk or Kirk Cousins? I guess depends on how the 25 2nd shakes out too. In a 1 QB, I'd think Cousins (if that's who you meant) would be a back up as probably every team already has some type of stud QB in a 10 teamer as well. Should be able to get a real good player at the 2.01. I think you probably did ok in this trade. How are your other WR's if you were able to ship Brown and Downs, who I view as kind of lower WR2's, so no huge loss.
so trading the 1.09 to get the 2.03, 2.05 AND 2.09 was even better than I thought... Love to see this data. (guy was desperate for a first round pick)
That’s fairly good value and depending on what position you take, hit rate is the same. Love it
Let’s go!
DROP A LIKE EVERYBODY 🔥🔥
so what does consensus and look like and where can I find it ? anyone know
Thank you Chip ur the bastard GOAT beast
ty chip (-:
My QBs are Jackson, Burrow, and Young. If Williams falls to me at 1.02, do I trade Burrow for 1.06 and 1.08?
So I should trade away the chance at Bowers for two the 2.01 and 2.05? Or if Bowers ADP is 1.07 in superflex and he is sitting there take him?I do like the video and it premise.
Stay at the 1.07
Where can we get the bakery????
What is the sample size of WRs taken in the first 4 picks?
7 year period, so it’s a good amount. I can check exact numbers for you, it’s well over 10-12.
So if I have the 1.01 & 1.03 & 1.06 in SF I’m suppose to smash Caleb daniels and McCarthy (likely scenario due to league)????
How do I not consider marv daniels maye or even marv nabers maye????
thanks, just took audric estime 1.01 so he can be a cornerstone elite asset
I have the option to trade Devante Adams’s and Chubb for the 2.02, 2.08 and Bryce young. How we feeling about Young? Worth giving up those two for him?
Young side in SF
if you have anthony richardson on dynasty 16 team league. i have the 6th pick this year. also have lamar jackson. QB is crucial in this league 6 pts. for passing and the depth is very small with 16 teams. do you trade richardson away for some draft picks and go get top QB in this years draft class.? is it worth it?
No way, stick with your guys
So should I move back from 1.05 to 1.09+ 2.02 and 2.03? 12 team PPR sf
Yes!
I love your guys's content more and more. Quick question though, I am having a lot of fun being in a 32 team league. You know there's no double players, no nothing. You know it's it's a huge league. We got a lot of active people. It's fantastic very active League. Only problem is it's so hard to value picks and players because so many of us are used to 12 team. You know maybe a superflex? Do you guys have any recommendations on anybody who puts out content on this? Or at least a way to wrap my head around a league like this? Thanks again guys
Sounds super fun I’d stress so hard about trading anyone in that league 😂
We’ve never played in a 32 team, but we are starting our first this offseason!
Can’t say I have any hard advice for you on that one for now though 😁
@@grimeythree4294 oh it can be sometimes I'll admit
@@thedynastydomain That's all right guys. No big deal. My word of advice is that I am finding depth at position is more important than just having a couple stars on your team. A lot of people that I'm playing against are having a hard time not treating it like it's a 12 team. Use it to your advantage
What do you think about trading down from 1.09 to 2.02 and getting 2.10? Am I getting enough value for the drop?
Not enough
Ok I’m in a league that does not like to trade a lot I’m in a rebuild but have descent qb. Herbert Lawerence and fields. 1 qb league 10 team league. I have 1.01 1.04-1.07 1.09 2.06 208 and 2.09 and 3 3rds. Do I take mhj first or try and trade back and get the 1.08 and 2.02 and 2.04? Thanks. I have descent te in Kmet and Mayer. Do I draft bowers also between 1.04-1.06. Thanks
Stick and pick in 1QB, take Bowers at 4
@@thedynastydomain thank you do I still draft Williams at 1.07 for the value also then?
I have the 1.09 and 2.04/05. One guy has the 2.01-03 should I offer the 1.09+25 3rd for 2.01/02?
Yes! Wait till post-draft
Do you think it's because people take best available or because most people draft for need. It's obviously one of those 2 reasons, I think it's the best available, scenario, it's one of the the reasons why I love the league I'm in, I know how most of them draft.
People most draft for need
Is this based off a 12 or 10 team league when referring to 1.7-2.3? Big difference in picks. Someone with the 2.3 in a 10 team league would be even more valuable than a 12
I have the 2.1/2/4/5 in the current mock drafts penix Ladd benson brooks nix are there how would you go about that situation. If penix and nix get late 1st to early 2nd capital I think I take them B2B and pass on Ladd or brooks thoughts ?
If they go 1st round, you take them. 2nd round, it's fine to take Ladd/Brooks
@@thedynastydomain still taking penix at 2.2? Being a backup the next few years? Was at the draft by far the biggest surprise
1.03 for 1.07, 25 late first, and 2.07 thoughts? Single qb league
1.03 side
As somebody holding 2.01 and 3.01 in a rebuild… what would you recommend doing?
And also somebody who is holding Quentin Johnston, are you selling for any mid to late 2nd?
Stick and pick!
How do these odds change for 10 Team leagues?
Just consider the 2.02 to be the 1.12!
If I can snag the RB 1 at 1.12 I’m doing that. Wtf are y’all on about. Crazy value right there
what about 16 team league?
Avery probably the type to bring coupons to Toys R Us as a kid
did not I paid full retail price for my toys
I recently did a trade up. Gave up picks 17 and 19 for pick 10. I don’t really need more depth guys. I don’t really NEED anything. So I’m going after the best player. It’s 1 qb and 14 teams so I’m assuming that Caleb and Daniels will be gone by 10 but maybe I think may be there. Depending on draft capital I think whoever the cowboys pick could be there. Those would probably be my 2 preferred targets but we will see. Maybe the bills and chiefs both take a first round wr and one of them falls to me. I’m also not opposed to trading out of the pick for a 1st next year or maybe a vet. To me this works better than going 2 later picks also because of roster space. Because I don’t want to cut a ton of my low players like Davis Allen or Bo melton but I would have to if I don’t consolidate a little but
Should I trade 1.01 for 1.06 and Devonta smith?
Yes
🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Does it matter who’s ADP you’re using? sleeper, ESPN yahoo ect
They're all inaccurate. We have our own ADP at flockfantasy.com/domain that we use to find the best values! Use code DOMAIN, sign up for the MF tier and you'll get a free blueprint!
Dynasty league. Solid team except QB. Fields only QB. I have the 1.7 and was just offered Tua for the 1.7. Should I take Tua or keep the 1.7 and draft a QB? I figure Williams and Daniels will be gone at 1.7.
Isn’t all of this data viable ONLY IF you make chalky, more predictable picks? By that, I mean you’re taking most of the skill position players with Round 1 Draft Capital before you get into the 2nd Round players, then into the 3rd Round, etc.
What if, in the past, your league mates made a bad decision and took Zach Evans before Jayden Reed, Roschon Johnson, and Sam LaPorta were taken? What if Amon-Ra was taken before Elijah Moore and Nico Collins?
Or are you just talking about the value of the pick itself without assigning any specific player to it?
People were taking Bryce Young over C J Stroud, just sayin'
Better stage name for a rapper, Nate Dogg or Schmidt Ice?
How about “bull schmidt”
Is this data 1qb or SF?
SF
My issue is that I don’t want to spend a 1.01 on a QB if I already have 2 QBs who are being drafted in the first round of startups (Herbert and ARich). I recognize that taking Caleb would be smart, but why would I take a guy knowing I would have to sit an elite QB option every week
Good problem to have for sure!! Trade back if you can.
@@thedynastydomain if I can guarantee the guy with the 1.02 would draft Caleb ahead of MHJ I would
@@chaseburrows907 even if you can't guarantee it... you'd end up with the same player (Caleb) + whatever you got for trading back. And you could do it again for the #3 of you still don't want Caleb.
For every CJ Stroud there are 10 Zach Wilson, Mitchell Trubisky, etc. etc. The list is large.
Actually the data suggests otherwise...
@@thedynastydomain I've seen a lot of what ends up being garbage at QB taken in the first round in SuperFlex leagues.
1st in your hearts, and 1st in the comments. @waffle 🤪
Just to confirm... this is superflex right?
Yes.
I really hope my league mates don’t watch this channel 😂
I’m about to send some trades after this smash.
There is no argument to be made to take Marvin Harrison Jr 1.01 in SuperFlex. I’ve seen every snap of his at Ohio State. He did not beat Michigan, did not win a big ten championship, has no real highlight, and isn’t in the top ten most receiving yards for a single game. I can probably think of ten Ohio State receivers ranked ahead of him who can check all of those boxes whereas Marvin checks none of them.
So glad I drafted qb adp and got Bryce Young…
yes I forgot we advertised the 100% hit rate of QBs in the video
The data set just isn’t big enough to draw any conclusion at all.
6 years of data isn't enough? 🤔
@@thedynastydomain no
Jonathon Brooks is better than Tre benson
I think you guys failed statistics