How Close Are the Tories to Wipeout? | Morning Brew with Phil Moorhouse
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- čas přidán 24. 06. 2024
- There is increasing talk of a Tory wipeout in the news, and yet the media are not actually explaining what this means or what's causing it. If you were to read their reporting on the polling, you would think we're just expecting a very bad loss for the Conservatives and a Labour landslide. But there's a detail in the polls, and it's in all of the polls, which shows that the Tories are actually very close to being made irrelevant. Journalists know this, they're just not saying.
FocalData Poll: www.focaldata.com/blog/focald...
Tactical voting: stopthetories.vote/
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Tories gone, Farrage gone, Brexit gone, please please please let my dreams come true.
Farage gone dream on sunshine..😂😂😂😂😂
Don't let your dreams be dreams. Go for it and make it happen.
And mine ❤
PR on !
Farage very likely to win. I'm glad I don't live in Clacton.
Theyve dug their own grave, and god riddence to them.
And jumped in it. And proceeded to shovel loose earth on top of themselves.
Lol.... Dare I say this I have £50 on the conservatives to get less than 50 seats.
@allanchapman7986 Gambling on the election... are you in government too? :p
@@TortleTalk lol....How did you know when I put it down on expenses?
Wish I had your optimism.
I hope you win
i think they will get 80 seats
How many times do I have too tell people! His names Fart-Rage!
More like Adolf.
Or Frottage, look it up, describes exactly what he does to certain sections of the electorate.
Very low turnout, especially among would be Labour voters, as well as more people voting for smaller parties thinking the Tories will lose anyway, could help the Tories a lot. This is difficult to model. Another concern are the many undecided voters, if they actually vote, might largely fall for the barrage of Tory lies in the last few days -- and there are more undecided voters than usual.
Watching Richi last week, it was very revealing when he let his mask slip on the occasions when he got pushback from the audience. His eyebrows bristle when he's peeved. I wouldn't want to be his wife or kids, I suspect he's a very irritable man.
He thinks he's above everyone else. No wonder he gets angry when the people he considers his 'lessers' stand up to him
Another great video. Liked what you said about Cameron at the end, Phil. I still think he was the worst because he did the most damage. He and Osborne triggered this. With all the much more recent shenanigans we mustn't forget how much of the trouble started in 2010 with Cameron and Osborne's original austerity ideology and it has been downhill ever since. They are still propping up their austerity even when it is hurting their party at the ballot box. Could we even say that the Conservative Party itself is being sacrificed on the altar of austerity? It seems to be the one thing that must be protected at all costs. The latest example I noticed was Sunak giving his pre-election talk from Policy Exchange. I thought that incredibly bad judgment. That was not prime ministerial and highlighted the links with Tufton Street.
No wonder labour are in front little ratboy talks about labour ghost stories more than tory brexit and scandalous tory MPs.
Wasn't it Cracknell the one who called Pincher a 'Pound Shop Harvey Weinstein' two years before the Pincher scandal brought Spaffer De Piffle down?
21 Tory seats suits me just fine.. like winning the lotto sort of celebration will be had!
I have a playlist for the Big Day,
"Ride of the Valkyries" Wagner, on the way down to vote.
"Wipeout" by the Surfaries, on my way out.
"Fiesta" by The Pogues, at home with a snifter. Roll on disaster for the Tories day.
@@willtricks9432 excellent I hadn't thought of a sound track will set it up!
@@willtricks9432Joni Mitchell’s California when Sunak concedes…
I would say your point “most of the country wants Starmer to be Prime Minister is actually wrong. Most people just don’t want the other people. He wins by default.
👍
He's not my cup of tea, but he's a man with a moral centre, you don't get to be DPP without that sense. But it comes with a whole bunch of baggage.
We had hustings in my area last week labour came first and lib dem were just a point behind at the top and then green were 3rd, I'm happy with any of them xD
One minute to midnight before wipeout! Wonderful! 💥🗯💫
Regarding sound volume, I think youtube has been making adjustments recently, turning up the volume on adverts. So it might be quiet for some people compared to the ads? It was for me, I have to quickly turn it down when adverts come on otherwise they’re gratingly loud.
3 quid a week for premium, it is great NO ADS at all.
Voted Today. I am in hospital a lot. Every nurse doctor paramedic physio say the are voting labour libs some green. Couple of divie patients have said reform
Done my best to repeat your information try to point out their failings. But have had to fall back once on the well you don’t have to be a racist to be in reform but all racist are. Which one are you.
Phil, a rower is likely to be a public school boy.
Being a Tory comes first. Water cleanness is secondary.
Right now, the only voter base the Tories can rely on is the lifelong over 65 Tory voter who only cares about their quadruple locked pension. I think them getting somewhere around 80-120 seats would make the most sense.
Those four stressed out Tories on the thumbnail is a bit on the nose 😂
One of Gove’s better photos.
James Cracknell suffered a catastrophic brain injury whilst doing a charity bike ride when a truck drove in to him, it caused a total personality change which led to his marriage ending and his life falling apart.
This is one occasion where I’m going to give a Tory the benefit of the doubt because he’s really not himself anymore.
Which makes you wonder why he has been allowed to stand as a candidate in the first place? 🤔
@@karlwhiteman9121 Because the Tories don’t care if he’s actually equipped to do the job, just that he’s well known. Their vetting procedures have already been proven to be inadequate, probably by design.
Perhaps as a sportsman Cracknell would have a special understanding of the fundamental dishonesty of betting on something you can influence the outcome of and he finds this scandal particularly offensive
I think he was in the Conservatives because that was the best thing for his political career. In his book he actually states Paddy Ashdown told him that he'd never be a minister if he joined the LibDems.
They should try to identify what is income, what is capital and what is enterprise. Labour & Capital should be taxed equally - Enterprise should be treated favourably - the difficulty would be knowing what gains were actually due to enterprise rather than just market appreciation.
Cracknell - wasn't he the passenger in a two man crew!
Starmer is leaning right, he will have problems with the far left of the party, once in power
the sound is very good and you have energy in your voice, sounds like your treatment is working👍
Hopefully it will come to pass. I'll believe when I see it.
Easy calculation.
Just count the number of days between now and 4th July and then add 1
The day after the election is the abyss.
Sound OK
Not as close as I would like.
Not close enough in my opinion.
No, they're not close to irrelevant, they became irrelevant a fortnight back.
I always adjust my own.
Not close enough phill.
To understand why capital gains and inheritance tax are forms of wealth taxes, just understand how super rich (e.g. Sunak) avoid paying any tax at all.
They invest their billions and generate a return of say 7%> For sunak, this might come out around £45m of gains for doing almost nothing.
Now this is capital gains but you don't pay any of it unless you sell assets. So you can avoid that by not selling.
For daily expenses, banks will lend him money secured against his investments (they take your investments if you can't pay).
Inheritance tax is so full of loopholes it basically almost doesn't exist as a tax. Anyone wealthy enough to have to pay it has means to avoid it.
So wealthy can delay the taxes but if you make capital gains high and block inheritance loopholes then they have to pay eventually. The only other way out is gifting to kids for instance. US has gift tax and that would be final bit of puzzle
The origins of parts of our moral code (the golden rule) goes way back to at least 2000bce. The idea that we learn it because we are taught it by our parents (implied ‘since Jesus’) and we don’t have an innate evolved moral awareness through empathy is a self-serving religious trope. The Romans et al didn’t see ‘others’ as their equal so the doctrine was sidestepped - as it was with slavery, women, etc.
The Institute for Fiscal Studies did a thorough report on wealth tax in 2022 and concluded that it would be very difficult to implement and might not end up raising very much because of avoidance behaviour.
IFS has been looked at by the OpenDemocracy website in 2019: "The IFS’s political ideology reveals itself most obviously in its approach to inequality. At several points on its website we are warned that “reliance on taxing ‘the rich’ and big companies to pay more has its limits and would be far from risk-free”. We find no equivalent warning about the risks associated with increased inequality or the growing concentration of corporate power. Repeatedly placing rich in inverted commas is in itself an indicator of political orientation."
What's labours plan on money laundering?
Excellent video (as usual) but please note that there isn't always the stated 5% error margin on these types of results. The margin varies with the reciprocal of the square root of the sample size - the bigger the sample, the smaller the margin. A sample of 1,000 shows a 3% margin.
Pretty irrelevant.
Labour are now close to tradition tories on most policies but more liberal on social issues which is.a plus.
Problem is that there is no left wing option.
Phil. Great videos but it is really getting boring. Roll on.
Nonsense. Phil's keeping me going till the election. Thank gawd for him & his interesting vids.
@@DellaWilliams-vo3ez get a life maybe, but yes his videos are good, no arguments there.
@@paulholdstock4751 This election is the most important in my lifetime. I'm not ashamed by how invested I am. Don't be so judgmental.
Tories already gone!
Vote Reform 🇬🇧🇬🇧🇬🇧
They are like Tories but even worse. 🤮
Vote Reform UK
😂
Yeah, you keep the Tories too corrupt for the Tory party all for yourself matey.
Why?
never
Not for a Putin bootlicker.
Great for insomnia 🥱
Go to sleep.