5 Overrated Rookies Only Stupid Dynasty Owners Will Draft
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- Äas pĆidĂĄn 31. 05. 2024
- Alan Seslowsky of RotoWire and Theo Gremminger of Player Profiler reveal who the worst rookie picks are for your dynasty fantasy football drafts.
00:00 Troy Franklin in the late second round
06:20 Ricky Pearsall late first round
08:45 Rome Odunze over the QBs in superflex
12:00 Drake Maye ready for liftoff
15:00 1QB leagues QB is meaningless
18:00 Jayden Daniel vs Caleb Williams in superflex
21:00 Kimani Vidal late 2nd round pick
25:30 Soencer Ratler in the 3rd
29:30 Mistakes EVERY drafter makes
32:30 Value over need
35:00 Malik Nabers over Jayden Daniels
40:00 Brock Bowers over Rome Odunze
43:00 Raiders QBs
46:30 Jaylen Wright
49:30 Blake Corum
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#Dynasty #DynastyFantasyfootball #Fantasyfootball #NFL #Rookies #Sleepers #Busts - Sport
I got Randy Moss at the 1.03 of my 1998 rookie draft because "he was in a crowded room" and was the WR3 to start the year on the Vikings....it took exactly 1 game for that to change !
Moss is a great example.
Your one draft probably took 5 months to complete?
@@adyzYangboi lol. Need timers
@@rotowire 3 days to 1 week per pick due to download speed
@@adyzYangboiYIKES!
PSA: Raheem Mostert is 32 years old and misses a bunch of games every year.
Wright definitely has a window to take the job away.
It doesnât need to be said but Achane is also amazing but misses a lot of time.
Excellent point about Mostert is easy to project missed games. Not hard to see the upside is it?
Remember when people were taking Zach Wilson over Chase in 2021 because you had to take those QB's in SF!!!!!!!!! This is why I don't play SF that was absurd.
Painful memory too soon
First round QBs have a higher hit rate than first round WRs. It's all a crapshoot though.
@@neonichols2036 team need plays into it but you make a great point.
SF is way better. Qbs have no value in 1 qb.
SF is Fantasy Football for dumbies
The Maye take is hot to the point of immolation.
Also, boosting his WRs because your high on him as a rusher is something else...
Similar to Cam Newton's rookie year when he rushed for 700 yards, Steve Smith had 80 catches with about 1400 yards. There is room for a breakout WR on NE (opinion)
Whats the percentage chance that drake maye is even average? Hes in a trash situation in a division with defensive powerhouses. Maye will not be looked at anywhere near cj stroud. Not to mention maye is extremely raw and might not even start
Hey Sergio: That is certainly the downside (possible) outcome. Last year the market thought Houston was a bad situation as well. A lot of new faces in NE, it will be very interesting to watch
Love when you have Theo on. Always enjoy hearing his takes on guys. We just tend to agree and see a lot of guys similarly. He often brings up certain stats or points that I may have overlooked or not looked at from his lens. đđ„
Thanks for the nice note Damon. We agree Theo is a fun guest. He will be back on again soon đȘ
Thanks Damon. Appreciate you watching and I always love podcasting with Alan
The title of this video should be better. This video is so much more and better content than "overrated rookies"
There is a decent chance that Maye only plays a partial season. Clipboard duty to start
Very fair assessment.
It's the guys that don't play 1QB leagues that think QB doesn't matter but it's tough to win without an elite QB. And by having an elite qb you get roster flexibility. It's actually a lot harder than you think when I lot of owners will not trade so you can get shutout on QB production.
I have Kirk Cousins in a league and I got cute trading back from the 2.01 to the 2.04 (plus 3.04) because I was so confident Penix would fall to me. The guy with 2.05 traded the 2.05, 3.05 and 4.05 to jump to 2.03 and snipe me.
Painful. Especially when you think about the player you will get at 3.04! Good luck!
Itâs mind blowing how everyone is obsessed with Devon Achane. I can almost guarantee whoever owned Achane didnât start him week 3 when he had 56 points, heâs the definition of boom or bust. He played in 11 games and 6 of those games he score single digit points. I would rather snag Pittman, Collins, or DJ Moore knowing that they are more of a consistent option with a higher floor.
He is the classic nuclear upside play but has serious flaws with durability
Completely agree!
Not just fantasy owners but the Atlanta Falcons probably wish they took JaâMarr Chase instead of Kyle Pitts as well.
hahah wow, really good point. That has to hurt when they think about that one. Not as bad as the Eagles taking Jalen Reagor over Justin Jefferson though!
@@rotowireif you told me Jalen Reagor would be a bust in the NFL I would have disagreed wholeheartedly. But man that Reagor pick really hurt.
@@streakydrip8792 I remember taking Reagor and Ruggs in one draft yikes!
Real talk.. I have the 1.01 & 1.03 in SF with only Lamar.. need wr bad.. am I overthinking taking marv and then Caleb or daniels? Or smash Caleb then likely nabers?? Or Caleb and daniels is likely there
Thatâs a good problem to have brother, and I feel you with the other thinking it.
Who are your starters, and letâs figure this out so your not over thinking.
At face value, I would goâŠ.
1.1) Marvin Harrison
1.3.) Jayden Daniel
Or you can go
1.1) Caleb Williams
1.3) Malik Nabers
Iâm a Ravens fan, but I would still attempt to go QB QB here. Given Lamarâs age, how many more years of elite production do you think he still has, especially with hardly any receivers to throw to?
I know you need WR bad, but given that itâs SF and you only have one QB at the moment, I would say you need QB more. And you canât afford to draft only one QB and potentially miss on that one. Taking (or trying to take) two gives you options, depth, and longevity. And if the second pick is Jayden, you still end up with your favorite WR as the 3rd pick.
@@streakydrip8792 yea whatâs tripping me is the 1.02 has Allen Arich and baker and only aiyuk as his alpha.. hence Iâd love to snipe Harrison and figure him going nabers..
HOWEVER he could trade away Caleb which heâs capable of..
I got Nico and Reed basically at wr, traded Kirk for the 1.09..
Iâd love to trade the 1.03 for a stud which Iâm trying to just to make the selection easier..
@@InvestWithFFI Gotchya, hot take thanks
McMahon was special. Sid Luckman is the best of all time for the Bears. It has been a while.
lol Love the call back.
Luckman doesnât get enough love!
@@robbaholic lol agree
Jaylen Wright was a 3rd round rookie. Dolphins paid a 25 3rd for him
We endorse this narrative makes sense
Jaylen Wright was 4th round, which makes a huge difference when you're talking about hit rates.
@@joeyperrone3168yeah itâs hard to understand if heâs a 4th or a 3rd because they paid a 3rd+ for him
Polk is a decent receiver, but isnât even the best rookie WR the Patriots drafted. That would be Javon Baker taken later. Plus, Polk landed in a poor spot in New England because he disappeared in cold weather in college.
We are starting to hear this more often, that Baker > Polk. That would make this situation very interesting. You like Drake Maye?
@@rotowire I like Maye especially some of the comps Iâm seeing. Similar to Stafford/Herbert as a passer with Daniel Jonesâ legs.
@@rotowire I did take Maye > Odunze in a SF rookie draft at the 1.05 other QBs are Richardson, Geno, and D. Jones
@@adamhawn2523 Maye has some under-discussed rushing upside too. love it
I mean, if thatâs the case, youâre much wiser than 32 NFL GMs lol anything else I should know?
I think by the end of the year Adonai Mitchell will be out scoring Pittman
Bold call!
I'm stuck on JJ McCarthy vs Drake Maye. At 1.05
At the 1.05 would you go Rome or JJ McCarthy? Kyler Murray and Minshew are my only QBs and my WRs are Lamb, Jefferson, Pickens, Hopkins and Ridley with some other young 2nd/3rd year wrs
Assuming this is Superflex...We favor the QB here especially given that Minshew is not a lock to start. .Can you trade back a spot or 2?
ââ@@rotowireI've tried but theres one guy in the league who hoards all the 1st round picks and doesn't want to trade up to the 1.05đ He literally has like more than half of the 1st round picks lol
â@@rotowire I'm also working on a trade for Justin Fields and the 2.03, 3.03 would that be wise?
I.would love to see legette and pearsall takeb ahead of me in the 1st but I always seem to have to draft legette between 2.04 and 2.06. I have seen pearsall go before that or fall to almost the 3rd
Very rare they go in the first. We haven't seen it. Theo said he has. Wild rookie drafts.
I took Franklin at 3.01 in two leagues but that was the absolute highest I would've been willing to take him, even though I was higher on consensus on him pre-NFL draft.
3.01 seems reasonable. We see him going 2.04. Nuts!
I think javon Baker will play X receiver for the Patriots.i think Douglas will have many more catches than polk.pok will have problems separating in the nfl
Good call on Baker. We are very interested to see what he can do
I grabbed him at the 3.02. Insane to pick him up any higher. I think I reached but I grabbed because Achane will have injury problems.
Moster is getting up there in age as well
I will take Odunze over Maye every single time. Maye is the worst of the 4 QBs, needs a TON of work to ever be a plus NFL QB and is in a horrible situation. Meanwhile, Odunze is one of the best WR prospects in years. Easy call.
The market agrees with you, keep in mind in Superflex leagues it wont take much for Maye to score more points just being a QB. Last year the market thought Houston was a bad spot for CJ Stroud.
I have 1.05 and 1.09 I need a QB and TE but donât want to draft Bowers. Am I crazy? Iâm thinking Brooks and Williams with a Sinnott in late 2nd? HELP
if you need QB and it is a superflex draft you need to take a QB at 5. Or Bowers at 5 and Bo Nix at 9.
So none of the other team in my league ne d a QB so I think Williams will be there at 1.09, but would it be better to draft Williams 1.05 and Brooks 1.09?
@@drewbeedoobedo8795If Williams makes it there at 5, thatâs a blunder unless itâs an 8 man league. Even if you donât need a QB, you take the generational prospect in a good landing spot.
Whatâs your thoughts on bowers?
@@drewbeedoobedo8795 Think heâs a great player and prospect. With how TEs have been producing lately, I think heâs a good pick.
Unfortunately, the landing spot isnât the best. If you did not want to take him, thatâs very much understandable. I think the Raiders upgrade at QB in the 2025 off-season or draft.
love that you guys understand 1qb. all these superflex addicts overvalue qb in 1 qb because theyre so used to glazing all the qbs from their many superflex leagues. in my draft caleb went 2.01, I got daniels 2.06 and maye and JJ were 3rd rounders. Everyone has good qbs already in a 12man 1 qb
haha you make a great point. it is hard for superflex brain to go back to 1QB world. An edge to be had for sure
Yeah itâs frustrating watching channels do SF mocks, and then roll into 1QB mocks and QBs only fall like 5-10 spots across the board lol
Remember when Amon Ra St Brown was a 4th round real life pick and I took him in the 2nd round and someone told me that was a stupid pick..........
Were you really going to pass on Toney, Bateman, E Moore, R Moore, D Eskridge, Tuta Atwell, Marshall for St Brown in 2021 ? Well of them WR's went ahead of St Brown in round 1 or 2.
These are true words. Lol.
@@henrymuto1417 If we only knew!
I mean, youâre talking about the outlier of all outliers lol heâs like then only 4th round receiver to ever have a WR1 season đ
@@robbaholic Puka was a 5th rounder!
Took Bowers at 1.6 in a 1QB dynasty and Pearsall at 2.6 so I'm happy he fell a bit in that draft
Need the guy on the left in my leagues. Poor takes.
Always fade the man on the left. Good strategy
My mind went to a completely different place when I heard AOC đđ
Lol politics and football intersecting.
If anyone took 1 first for Rome because he doesnât have a great year this year then they deserve to lose every game for the rest of eternity đ
excellent advice. it is a long term game
@@rotowireI think the point they are trying to make is that even suggesting that you could buy him for that price is terrible, non-actionable advice from you guys.
Iim faced with this very situation. My quarterbacks are Mahomes,Dak, Stroud, Iâll,probably have a choice to make between Jayden daniels or Rome Odunze. đ€·ââïž
Roman Wilson wonât be shit compared to the guy that should have been a Steeler if the Bengals hadnât sniped Burton 4 picks earlier.
You are right tgsr Burton has that nuclear upside.
Love JB, got him at 3.03 in my 1QB draft, which I thought was wild.
1QB rookie draft, got Bo Nix at 4.01
That seems about right in 1QB. Nice work.
Yes, I would EASILY pass on Roman Wilson and Polk for Troy Franklin.
Yâall are acting like Puka/Amon Ra/Wicks etc donât exist. Troy was elite last year, has elite speed, instant opportunity in the offense, and heâs with his college QB.
We will give you Puka and Amon-Ra, but Wicks? come on man... go try getting a 2nd round rookie pic for Wicks right now. Very unlikely to happen
Ehhh give me Roman Wilson over Franklin any day
@@deetony211 yes!
Every time I see Alan, I just laugh because I know he's gonna say some wild funny sh!t
We appreciate you watching. We will pass the nice words along đ€đ€
Thank you Rotowire đ
I never get how people are in 50 plus leagues. Pretty lame really. You draft players like stocks. 1 league in which you live snd die on every pick is way more fun.
It's not a fun existence. But it's real.
Thanks to cousins Pitts may finally be good.he might be usable lol
Trying to blame the cold for chicagos qb problems, in any capacity, or even implying such a thing is any meaningful contributing factor is one of the silliest things Iâve ever heard
The bears offense will suck
Of the rookie qbs, maye and JJ both risk of not starting many if any games in 2024.
It's SOL ..SHT OUTA LUCKđ€Łđ€Š
Thats it! đŻ
Sammy Watkins 2014 pick 4
In what 1QB league is Stafford or Baker not rostered? đđ like wtf are you saying Alan?
Xavier is a 4th or 5th round pick
Legette? He goes no later than 2.9 in superflex prob earlier in single QB in our drafts
@@rotowire idk but in all my mocks he goes later.everyone keeps taking K Coleman early tho
Prove someone took Legette in the 1st or youâre a liar. No chance that happened.
Could he have meant "single QB" leagues?
@@rotowire still. Prove it. It didnât happen.
@@traviswilson6221 I just grabbed the screenshots from Theo. Whats your twitter or email, I can send. Both FFPC $750 entry
Alan should just not comment regarding 1QB leagues. He knows nothing about strategy.
Supetflex brain is real
@@rotowire lol
Calling Rattler a stupid pick is a stupid comment. He'll be Carr's backup, and if Carr gets hurt and you have him in a SF, Rattler makes sense in a round when nobody is getting hits. And the Saints can get out of Carr's contract before the four years is up. It's short-sighted an asinine to suggest that Rattler can't be a guy who becomes the Saints next starter when you're sitting there talking about Purdy and Browning. Talk out of both sides of your mouth much?
Who are you passing on to take Ratler in the early third? Burton? Corley? Vidal? Polk?
@@rotowire Who said anything about early 3rd? Idk about your drafts, but neither Polk nor Burton have been there after the mid-3rd in mine. Corley? Heck yes. Not a fan at all. Vidal? Pass on a 6th rd RB to get a backup QB that is expected to take over for an aging vet in a dynasty? Absolutely. But keep calling people stupid for their picks while you talk about out of both sides of your mouth and hope people are too blind to see it. Btw, I have zero shares of Rattler.
@@coryfowler75 If you have not drafted into Ratler, doesn't that mean you agree he is a bad pick in the 3rd? a "stupid pick"
@@rotowire none of those higher ceiling WR's were there at the 3.10 for mine either. I'd rather throw a dart on a qb who has a very good chance of getting a chance to start over the 4th string rbs who may not even make the roster. Burton and Polk I take but again, they were gone. Corley is in a crowded WR room and Vidal is just as likely of being a starter as any other random guy. Also I'd bet noone drafted purdy or browning...they were waiver picks unless you saw the future. It was an odd comment to mention them when they had worse chances to ever start.
@@connorloube5998 Fair enough.
Jayden will be a bust. Save the receipt.
That is scary since he is going top 3 in most rookie drafts. What don't you like about him?
He doesnât throw over the middle. Huge concern. 9.3% of his drop backs went intermediate to the middle of the field. The only QB worse than this is Justin Fields since 2020.
Only 50.6% of his drop backs resulted in a pass attempt ranking 193 out of 196 QBâs since 2019.
He takes sacks on an alarming percentage of his pass attempts or takes off running and gets hit hard.
This a hard bet for me to make despite his ridiculous upside.
@@frankielopez8885 all great points. Other than Caleb which rookie QBs you like more than Jayden?
Heâs literally Justin Fields 2.0 lol
You're wrong but whatever
Yall are way too high on Nabers in Superflex. Giants dont target 1 player. That ball get spread all over the field. As a giant fan, i wouldnt take Nabers in the first round. Maybe Late first round, but i can find better value there.
They havenât targeted one player because they havenât had anyone worth hyper-targeting đđ imagine the upside if they get a QB who isnât a complete bum lol
@@robbaholic it's very true they don't have that "A-lister" WR, but there is a lot of talent there with Slayton, W. Robinson, Hyatt, Waller, Hodgens, etc. None of them were getting consistent targets week to week. The QB can't get the ball off with that O-Line. Giants have been repairing that O-Line for years and still can't get it together. Nabers owners are gonna have to wait a few years before seeing a return on investment. I really hope, as a giant fan, that he's lights-out. That would be great. I just don't see it worth the early round 1 investment. He'll be a taxi squad guy for a few years until he's traded