So meticulously presented and argued seemingly with much higher degree of certainty.. Suhas sir is known for his analytical prowess and he, as always, presents his inferences so well and so convincingly
Thanks to PUNE INTERNATIONAL CENTRE for organizing a lecture on recent 2024 general elections and its political implications. On this occassion Prof.Suhas Pashlikar's detail analysis with imperical data on recent polling trend and the changing mood of the people is commendable and well appreciated. Thanks for uploading this informative video on CZcams. I look forward to get some intellectual stuff from your organization. Thanks !
A long intro but speakers have said what they have to say. We're neither here nor there. India's tryst with destiny rests with incompetent politicians. Public will rise one day to address poverty unemployment like issues but when? India's caste system religious bickering and hate need another Mahatma to arrive and reform. .
Elections should be fought on issues of jobs, health, education founded on scientific outlook. Why not introduce this concept and constitutional values right from schools? No govt or political party has made an attempt to do this except in the early years may be during Nehru's times. If indian youth gets educated in the true sense only then we as a society will progress.
2024 then a 'critically normal' poll? Does the analytical frame of the guest speaker not call for a questioning or reframing of normality? In the 1990s, YD Phadke's characterisation was stark. The criminalisation of politics and the politicisation of criminals. This thematic seems subsumed amid white collar subversion of means to power, and thus the disempowerment of the fiscally impoverished voters. Superficial features of outcomes are missing the point of electoral democracy.
We need to guard against lowering our standards for normalcy. When we mentally and emotionally recalibrate to the new normal, we also disassociate from our own humanity. We need to demand that our leaders give the full truth and hold them to account. We must stand up for the silenced and stand with the silence-breakers. From the latest Scientific American issue of June 2024. Issue is the peak in human denial.
Palshikar sir Center not giving states GST share instead of giving 50 years loans how this should be understood?! Our generations to come are bound to be shackled coz of wrong doing of this bjp regime no matter who comes to power.
Can we really term win of a seat and hike in percentage of votes in Kerala as a spread of the BJP in the state and of some real significance? Anil Antony lost well despite the guy having a political background though in a different party. The win of Gopi and tough fight by Rajeev Chandrasekhar to Sashi Tharoor is more about the two candidates, one because of his cine background and caste and the other more about being Malayalai with his business background, himself in the neighbouring state but the in-laws from the same state, and ability to personally bring in funds and systems into play instead of any direct gain of the BJP! Personally, I don't view Kerala being a real gain to the BJP that will stay on. Re the Orissa, the BJP has been looking up in the state for sometime but the ageing Naveen Patnaik lost his head in bringing his dependence on Bureaucracy out in open, an IAS Officer married to Oriya lady resigning and joining BJD could be exploited by Modi as Patnaik gave an opportunity to Modi in platter. He could have better found a successor from within Orissa, which he seems to be finding now in his nephew, from his MLAs and avoided the calamity that he brought to him, his party, his state, and even to India. Therefore, Naveen gifted at least 10 of 20 seats that BJP won from the state giving Modi an opportunity in Delhi to form the Govt in Delhi. Lesser numbers from the state would have left Modi even weaker and RSS louder; some of the BJP MPs could also have come out in open. Otherwise, I agree with the analysis of Mr Palshikar!
In Kerala this time, the distribution of votes is as follows: 89 lakh votes for the United Democratic Front, 66 lakhs for the Left Democratic Front and 38 lakhs for the National Democratic Alliance. In the 1980s and 1990s, the share of BJP votes was 5% to 7%, whereas now it is 19%. Both of the traditional fronts (UDF and LDF) are losing votes from election to election, and it is the BJP which is gaining those votes. The trend seems very, very clear -- the BJP will make major gains in Kerala by 2029. The only question is which party [INC or CPI (M)] will lose more votes to the BJP in the near future.
@@NirajPant2 The three large Hindu communities in Kerala are (1) Ezhava/Thiyya [~27%], (2) Nair [~15%], and (3) Dalit [~10%]. Since the 1990s, the BJP has made strong inroads into the Nair community. (Traditionally, Nairs mostly voted for the Indian National Congress.) However, until recently (about 2019?), the BJP got very little support from the Ezhava/Thiyya group or from the Dalits. Post-Independence, these communities always formed the backbone of the Communist Party of India (Marxist). Since about 2019, there is a small but steady flow of voters from the CPI (M) to the BJP. These are voters mostly from the Ezhava/Thiyya community. In the 2024 Parliament Election, there is also a small but significant shift of voters from the Syrian Christian community (who are about 10%-12% of Kerala's population) towards the BJP. The common element in all of the above shifts is a reaction to the "appeasement" of the Muslim community [~27%] by successive UDF/LDF governments. The "appeasement" may be real or mostly exaggerated, but it is changing Kerala's electoral landscape.
@@hkumar7340 You seem to be from the state of Kerala, so have a better understanding about the ground realities which you support with numbers; I, therefore, have no reason to challenge you. My information is of a broader kind and may not be accurate, as it is anecdotal and on what I hear from my acquaintances and Sashi Tharoor who might have tried to hide behind generalities. Let's wait for the next assembly elections to see, how numbers then behave and what kind of impact BJP then makes and then five years later!
@@NirajPant2 Yes, indeed, I am from Kerala. What you have heard from Shashi Taroor (and others) is not totally wrong. Kerala's population has a quite strong Leftist bent and the BJP has had a difficult time fighting against that mindset. But the times, they are a-changin'... There are undercurrents which seem to have started about 10 years back, and Kerala's politics is shifting shape. Things seem to be getting more favourable for the BJP. That is all that I am able to say -- no concrete predictions, just looking at certain socio-political trends.
Dear God! Mr. Palshikar, in your last few minutes of the talk you draw an almost an apocalyptic scenario for the future of Indian polity. Do you really believe it? Don't you believe that the BJP/RSS are capable of a course modification to avoid it? i really enjoyed your analysis until you reached the end of your talk.
When the BJP contested alone in 2019, their vote share in AP was less than1%.. They secured lesser votes than NOTA., Now in 2024, they got 11% vote in AP just because they contested in alliance with TDP. Hence, its all TDP vote.. same thing can be applied in Tamil Nadu as they contested along with PMK. Effectively their vote share is 1% in AP
The first speaker made a number of sweeping statements/assertions without giving any concrete proof. Under the garb of intellectual discussion, this seems like an anti BJP meeting 👎👎👎
😂. Naidu and Nitish chose what is good for their States. People of Orissa chose one person for 25 years. He did deliver well. Given his deteriorating, they chose the next best option BJP 😊. I thank the Oriyans that they never even considered Congress as a viable option 😂
I think the n. d. a will be defeated in Maharashtra and Haryana assembly elections. These defeats will further strengthen the opposition alliance. What do you think buddy?
It feels like Bjp is some outside entity that these guys are not happy with. Is this a neutral analysis or coaching your team to fight someone you guys dont like. The second speaker is even more one sided. Dont worry BJP / RSS wont give up on hindutva and thank god for that. Because empty intellectuals like you who keep thinking that only you understand the whole world and everyone else is a fool. You keep drinking your own kool aid when the worst kinds of political brokers use caste to divide the country, keep it moving at 'hindu' growth of rate and keep power in their hands!
@@rocky49able Here we go again... "we tell you what is moral and what is not. If you dont follow then you're andh bhakt, sanghi and whatever adhominem attacks that we find suitable." And then same guys will go about telling the importance of diversity of opinions, freedom of expression etc but only when it suits their agenda
@@vishwayatri1994 Freedom of expression is for all. You can express whatever BS you have in mind. But one can't force anyone to accept their views. You criticize, mock but don't indulge in violence and intimidate others. I might not like the shirt you are wearing. I might say it's the worst shirt in the world, but i can't physically prevent you from wearing it
@@rocky49able then pray tell me why is Salman Rushdie not allowed in this country ? Why was he prevented from speaking at jaipur fest, his books banned promptly? Same with Bangladeshi writer taslima nasreen. What was so dangerous about rana couple chanting Hanuman chalisa that they had to be put in jail on sedition charge? All govt are morally compromised but the worst commentaries are one which use selective outrage while hiding under garbe of academia or intellectual discourse
@@vishwayatri1994 You talk as if i am the government. Rajiv Gandhi was an idiot to ban the Satanic Verses. Now the Hindutva right wing has learned from him and banning everything that is against their useless ideology
BJP is still the dominant party. Congress gained an additional 45 seats not because of Rahul Gandhi's charisma but rather on the strength of its regional allies. BJPs seats declined because of the following reasons 1. False propaganda that reservations will be done away with - 9% Dalit votes shifted because of this. 2. Free guarantee cards 3. Over confidence of the BJP leaders. 4. Inactive RSS cadres. Reasons 1&2 are not dedicated Congress voters. They can easily shift back to BJP. So, RG and the Congress eco system, stop celebrating. BJP will come back stronger.
Analysis needs to be on not only who assisted you but also who did not bring you down or go against you. It's here that BJP misread BSP. Fell into Abrhamic thought of black or white; with us or against us. An outreach to Mayawati would have had everyone signing a different tune today. An outreach to Mayawati was and will anyday be better than the "dhobi ghat" of Ajit Pawar.
Excellent analysis of indian politics and policies and india's future. 🎉
So meticulously presented and argued seemingly with much higher degree of certainty.. Suhas sir is known for his analytical prowess and he, as always, presents his inferences so well and so convincingly
A sane, intellectual voice . I read his articles in The Indian Express to get the real and complete picture on all political issues. nadi Palshikar
Thanks to PUNE INTERNATIONAL CENTRE for organizing a lecture on recent 2024 general elections and its political implications. On this occassion Prof.Suhas Pashlikar's detail analysis with imperical data on recent polling trend and the changing mood of the people is commendable and well appreciated. Thanks for uploading this informative video on CZcams. I look forward to get some intellectual stuff from your organization. Thanks !
Great analysis
Well reasoned out critique by Dr Subhash Palishkar !
Excellent analysis..
Palshikar is great man....great scientist
Policitisatio of armed forces as suggested in this analysis is very very alarming.
Indian state is diverse region, religions and social cultural heritage. So congress was amalagum of regional philosophy.
A long intro but speakers have said what they have to say. We're neither here nor there. India's tryst with destiny rests with incompetent politicians. Public will rise one day to address poverty unemployment like issues but when? India's caste system religious bickering and hate need another Mahatma to arrive and reform.
.
Ultimate
Very informative lecture. Kindly show the slides simultaneously with the speaker in split screen
Suhas Sir is a Master 🙏
Good lecture.!
उदबोधक
Great
Elections should be fought on issues of jobs, health, education founded on scientific outlook. Why not introduce this concept and constitutional values right from schools? No govt or political party has made an attempt to do this except in the early years may be during Nehru's times. If indian youth gets educated in the true sense only then we as a society will progress.
2024 then a 'critically normal' poll? Does the analytical frame of the guest speaker not call for a questioning or reframing of normality? In the 1990s, YD Phadke's characterisation was stark. The criminalisation of politics and the politicisation of criminals. This thematic seems subsumed amid white collar subversion of means to power, and thus the disempowerment of the fiscally impoverished voters. Superficial features of outcomes are missing the point of electoral democracy.
We need to guard against lowering our standards for normalcy. When we mentally and emotionally recalibrate to the new normal, we also disassociate from our own humanity.
We need to demand that our leaders give the full truth and hold them to account. We must stand up for the silenced and stand with the silence-breakers.
From the latest Scientific American issue of June 2024.
Issue is the peak in human denial.
Palshikar sir Center not giving states GST share instead of giving 50 years loans how this should be understood?! Our generations to come are bound to be shackled coz of wrong doing of this bjp regime no matter who comes to power.
Can we really term win of a seat and hike in percentage of votes in Kerala as a spread of the BJP in the state and of some real significance? Anil Antony lost well despite the guy having a political background though in a different party.
The win of Gopi and tough fight by Rajeev Chandrasekhar to Sashi Tharoor is more about the two candidates, one because of his cine background and caste and the other more about being Malayalai with his business background, himself in the neighbouring state but the in-laws from the same state, and ability to personally bring in funds and systems into play instead of any direct gain of the BJP!
Personally, I don't view Kerala being a real gain to the BJP that will stay on.
Re the Orissa, the BJP has been looking up in the state for sometime but the ageing Naveen Patnaik lost his head in bringing his dependence on Bureaucracy out in open, an IAS Officer married to Oriya lady resigning and joining BJD could be exploited by Modi as Patnaik gave an opportunity to Modi in platter.
He could have better found a successor from within Orissa, which he seems to be finding now in his nephew, from his MLAs and avoided the calamity that he brought to him, his party, his state, and even to India.
Therefore, Naveen gifted at least 10 of 20 seats that BJP won from the state giving Modi an opportunity in Delhi to form the Govt in Delhi.
Lesser numbers from the state would have left Modi even weaker and RSS louder; some of the BJP MPs could also have come out in open.
Otherwise, I agree with the analysis of Mr Palshikar!
In Kerala this time, the distribution of votes is as follows: 89 lakh votes for the United Democratic Front, 66 lakhs for the Left Democratic Front and 38 lakhs for the National Democratic Alliance. In the 1980s and 1990s, the share of BJP votes was 5% to 7%, whereas now it is 19%. Both of the traditional fronts (UDF and LDF) are losing votes from election to election, and it is the BJP which is gaining those votes. The trend seems very, very clear -- the BJP will make major gains in Kerala by 2029. The only question is which party [INC or CPI (M)] will lose more votes to the BJP in the near future.
@@hkumar7340 The point taken as you substantiate your views with numbers! Re 2029, it is more of speculation and we will see when we cross the bridge!
@@NirajPant2 The three large Hindu communities in Kerala are (1) Ezhava/Thiyya [~27%], (2) Nair [~15%], and (3) Dalit [~10%]. Since the 1990s, the BJP has made strong inroads into the Nair community. (Traditionally, Nairs mostly voted for the Indian National Congress.) However, until recently (about 2019?), the BJP got very little support from the Ezhava/Thiyya group or from the Dalits. Post-Independence, these communities always formed the backbone of the Communist Party of India (Marxist). Since about 2019, there is a small but steady flow of voters from the CPI (M) to the BJP. These are voters mostly from the Ezhava/Thiyya community. In the 2024 Parliament Election, there is also a small but significant shift of voters from the Syrian Christian community (who are about 10%-12% of Kerala's population) towards the BJP.
The common element in all of the above shifts is a reaction to the "appeasement" of the Muslim community [~27%] by successive UDF/LDF governments. The "appeasement" may be real or mostly exaggerated, but it is changing Kerala's electoral landscape.
@@hkumar7340 You seem to be from the state of Kerala, so have a better understanding about the ground realities which you support with numbers; I, therefore, have no reason to challenge you. My information is of a broader kind and may not be accurate, as it is anecdotal and on what I hear from my acquaintances and Sashi Tharoor who might have tried to hide behind generalities.
Let's wait for the next assembly elections to see, how numbers then behave and what kind of impact BJP then makes and then five years later!
@@NirajPant2 Yes, indeed, I am from Kerala. What you have heard from Shashi Taroor (and others) is not totally wrong. Kerala's population has a quite strong Leftist bent and the BJP has had a difficult time fighting against that mindset.
But the times, they are a-changin'... There are undercurrents which seem to have started about 10 years back, and Kerala's politics is shifting shape. Things seem to be getting more favourable for the BJP. That is all that I am able to say -- no concrete predictions, just looking at certain socio-political trends.
Dear God! Mr. Palshikar, in your last few minutes of the talk you draw an almost an apocalyptic scenario for the future of Indian polity. Do you really believe it? Don't you believe that the BJP/RSS are capable of a course modification to avoid it? i really enjoyed your analysis until you reached the end of your talk.
Totally agreed
When the BJP contested alone in 2019, their vote share in AP was less than1%.. They secured lesser votes than NOTA., Now in 2024, they got 11% vote in AP just because they contested in alliance with TDP. Hence, its all TDP vote.. same thing can be applied in Tamil Nadu as they contested along with PMK. Effectively their vote share is 1% in AP
In Raebareli, SP contributed 4.8 lakh votes to Congress's 1.8 lakh. So Congress vote is 1/3 of Samajwadi party s
@@longerodds5077 In 2019 Congress won Rae Bareli even without SP's alliance
That's how a political party grows. First they piggy back on a party till they reach a vote share of 18-20%. Once there, they take off.
@@mr.trinadhnookathotiassist6071The vote share started declining with successive elections. That's why Sonia Gandhi shifted to Rajya sabha
@@longerodds5077 Thats ur hypothesis... Modi's majority has declined by 2lakhs at Varanasi
It is good that they call themselves think tank. 😂 while this is nothing but a place for mediocre academics
Palshikar,is mad , hating to RSS & BJP
The first speaker made a number of sweeping statements/assertions without giving any concrete proof. Under the garb of intellectual discussion, this seems like an anti BJP meeting 👎👎👎
Stop crying!
@@prasanthalphaYes, it is time for you to cry. You cry loudly on Modi being back in power😀
@@binukj7970But there will be no:
1 UCC
2 NRC
3 Abolition of reservation
4 Congress Mutton bharat
5 Hindu Rashtra
6 One Nation One Election 😂
Anyone with intellectual ability will automatically go against BJP at least in the current scenario.
We are screwed. If only Naidu and Nitish were not so selfish. And if only the people of Odisha had voted for good governance.
😂. Naidu and Nitish chose what is good for their States. People of Orissa chose one person for 25 years. He did deliver well. Given his deteriorating, they chose the next best option BJP 😊.
I thank the Oriyans that they never even considered Congress as a viable option 😂
No discussion on I.n.d.I. a save and except it will implode by its contradictions! No analysis! Nor convincing!
I think the n. d. a will be defeated in Maharashtra and Haryana assembly elections. These defeats will further strengthen the opposition alliance. What do you think buddy?
These intellectuals based their opinion on how should the party do the politics but they ignore ground reality in india.
It feels like Bjp is some outside entity that these guys are not happy with. Is this a neutral analysis or coaching your team to fight someone you guys dont like. The second speaker is even more one sided. Dont worry BJP / RSS wont give up on hindutva and thank god for that. Because empty intellectuals like you who keep thinking that only you understand the whole world and everyone else is a fool.
You keep drinking your own kool aid when the worst kinds of political brokers use caste to divide the country, keep it moving at 'hindu' growth of rate and keep power in their hands!
The Congress was corrupt financially. Modi is corrupt financially and morally. Modi supporters can go SIU
@@rocky49able Here we go again... "we tell you what is moral and what is not. If you dont follow then you're andh bhakt, sanghi and whatever adhominem attacks that we find suitable."
And then same guys will go about telling the importance of diversity of opinions, freedom of expression etc but only when it suits their agenda
@@vishwayatri1994 Freedom of expression is for all. You can express whatever BS you have in mind. But one can't force anyone to accept their views. You criticize, mock but don't indulge in violence and intimidate others. I might not like the shirt you are wearing. I might say it's the worst shirt in the world, but i can't physically prevent you from wearing it
@@rocky49able then pray tell me why is Salman Rushdie not allowed in this country ? Why was he prevented from speaking at jaipur fest, his books banned promptly? Same with Bangladeshi writer taslima nasreen.
What was so dangerous about rana couple chanting Hanuman chalisa that they had to be put in jail on sedition charge?
All govt are morally compromised but the worst commentaries are one which use selective outrage while hiding under garbe of academia or intellectual discourse
@@vishwayatri1994 You talk as if i am the government. Rajiv Gandhi was an idiot to ban the Satanic Verses. Now the Hindutva right wing has learned from him and banning everything that is against their useless ideology
BJP is still the dominant party. Congress gained an additional 45 seats not because of Rahul Gandhi's charisma but rather on the strength of its regional allies. BJPs seats declined because of the following reasons
1. False propaganda that reservations will be done away with - 9% Dalit votes shifted because of this.
2. Free guarantee cards
3. Over confidence of the BJP leaders.
4. Inactive RSS cadres.
Reasons 1&2 are not dedicated Congress voters. They can easily shift back to BJP.
So, RG and the Congress eco system, stop celebrating. BJP will come back stronger.
Analysis needs to be on not only who assisted you but also who did not bring you down or go against you. It's here that BJP misread BSP. Fell into Abrhamic thought of black or white; with us or against us. An outreach to Mayawati would have had everyone signing a different tune today.
An outreach to Mayawati was and will anyday be better than the "dhobi ghat" of Ajit Pawar.
Don't agree with you.
Very confused person.