South Korea's Role in a Taiwan Contingency | The Impossible State
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- čas přidán 6. 06. 2024
- What should South Korea do to deter North Korea's opportunistic aggression in a Taiwan contingency? How do we access China's role and reaction to South Korea's involvement in a Taiwan contingency?
Please join the Impossible State live podcast for a special discussion on South Korea's role in a Taiwan contingency. The conversation is moderated by Dr. Victor Cha and featured Dr. Sungmin Cho, Professor at the Daniel K. Inouye Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies (DKI APCSS). In this episode, they discuss South Korea's role in deterring North Korea's opportunistic aggression in a Taiwan contingency and providing rear area support.
This event is made possible through general support to CSIS.
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An important factor is that militarily, China doesn't see South Korea as an independent actor, but rather just a puppet of the US. So the discussion about ROK doing everything vs doing nothing, that decision might be moot if China sees ROK's bases as America's bases, which seems likely.
Professor Cho is very articulate and his approach and analysis solid. I appreciate that he specifically mentions the criticisms of his work. A sign of confidence and not hubris. Thank you CSIS and Professor Cho.
Highly illuminating interview! Excellent deep reflection and analysis with accute clear-eyed consideration of geopolitical strategies, signaling and dilemmas. I particularly noted and and admired the direct, objective and completely egoless manner in which Dr. Cho never once failed to list and address counter-arguements without the slightest need for prompting. What a brilliant insightful mind! I would love to hear more from Professor Dr. Cho.
#CSIS....Dr.#VictorCha..great insight.!!!..& Dr.SungMinCho.
If South Korea wants to play a role in the Taiwan issue, she may find that North Korea would want to participate too.
In a Taiwan contingency the PLA navy and air force will be busy, but the army won't be doing much. If there's a second front in the Korean peninsula, that's a perfect way to use them. South Korea doesn't seem to be aware of the risks of getting involved in the conflict. He mentions the potential outcomes that if China dominates and Korea does nothing it will be bad for Korea. But refusing to at least consider the worst possible outcome - getting involved and losing - is highly short sighted and hubristic.
If China wins in Taiwan then the US won't be able to defend South Korea either. So South Korea can either go all in and bet everything on America winning in Taiwan, then it should actively join the war. Or South Korea can do nothing and it will survive, even if China wins on Taiwan. The choice between these options comes down to how strong you think the PLA is compared to the US armed forces and whether South Korean involvement (and the North Korean reaction to that) is significant enough to shift the balance in the war.
I appreciate it very much CSIS and Mr. Cho for focusing on the geopolitical strategic issues , but I also think they should have discussed a little more about the economic impact to S Korea which it is highly dependent on a war free Taiwan Strait.
Great talk thanks for sharing.
If US gets into a fight with PRC in Taiwan Straits, that is the best time for North Korea to take on South Korea militarily. This is almost a no-brainer. And PRC would at least supporting North Korea even if it does not involve directly. when a war breaking out, China will try everything to WIN just like US. PRC + NK vs US + SK on land is a prefered battle ground for China and NK.
is here, gave you a 👍! Thank You, for the content.
South Korea has said its main focus is North Korea. North Korea will keep South Korea honest.
Thanks to the Movie - Remo the Williams The Adventure Begins (sad that no sequel was never made) world generally has a positive notion about Koreans in general, the best for South Korea to do is just to condemn (both warring nations) as being most meaningless war and then do nothing... in fact that is what south korea would do. that is unless just prior to war china signs a treaty with North Korea something like a mutual defense treaty.. then South Korean position would be really dangerous
Sounds sound
Very well reasoned speech.
Very meaningful, insightful scenario. [Focus on North Korea and rear area support]
In Taiwan contingency, the volatility will be increased to the maximum level in the peninsula. US forces here will get involved. That is the whole concept of the GPR, a highly mobile and flexible operation throughout the region. The US will be pushed to make a choice with regard to the ‘allocation/dispatch’.
On the other hand, South Korea’s position is rather fixed. Logistics and maintenance support. Even some skilled people need to be sent to Okinawa or other bases in Japan or the Philippines.
So the question will be “how much of the forces stationed in Korea will the US swing to the Taiwan theater?”
China has the corresponding issue too. “How much of the Northern Theater PLA forces do we need to swing to Taiwan theater?” The problem for them is the swing speed and agility are not high.
The military balance is changing very rapidly. The US has stationed a squadron of MQ-9s in Kagoshima. Japan began to field its own MQ-9s from October last year. The US and Japan are deploying hundreds of MRC missiles. JASSMs and Tomahawks. The US is strengthening the AMD capabilities in Guam.
South Korea has finally begun to produce its own indigenous version of MQ-9s, which seem to be almost as powerful as the original. Apparently this used to be unthinkable when the US was infatuated with China-love.
A South Korea armed with the highest level of midrange surveillance, reconnaissance and missile guidance?
It used to be unacceptable to the US, I suppose. It is only 1,000 km from Seoul to Beijing. Less than 500 km from Cheju to Shanghai. Less than 1,200 km to Wuhan, the military hub of China. Less than 2,000 km to Chongqing.
What if South Korea changes the seekers of its indigenous mid range cruise missiles from the current for-fixed-target to the for-moving-target? Officially, it can reach 1,500 km. However, these people are ‘notorious’ for their preference for heavy warheads. And there is a trade-off between the range and the weight of the warhead. And the obsessive Korean addiction to missiles and artillery are well known. Who knows how many pieces they have stockpiled and are producing day and night?
The three partners (North Korea, the CCP and PLA) have earned a monster here.
Finally the US DoD announced that it will flood this area with thousands of replicators of attritable (airborne) drones like Kratos XQ-58 (Valkyrie). The Navy will field the XL UUWVs(Orcas) soon.
This combination of missile defense, drones and MRC(midrange missile capabilities) is expected to nullify the mass of the PLA. The concept is:
“Make the littoral sea of China a graveyard of the PLA”
The American decision/commitment to resist/confront China was not easy after the rapprochement half a centry ago and after the hot-love for the last thirty years. Now the US has awakened. And South Korea has been undergoing a process of normalization of the political leadership and political culture. And Japan is overcoming its seven-decades-old secret dream of ‘multi-polar’ regional order and its resentment wrapped in the misconception of ‘Japan as a victim of modernity’.
Very serious situation here in this region. Still there are a lot of potentials and hopes.
Some very good insights here. Thank you CSIS for keeping the Taiwan/China issue at the forefront of peace and stability in that region. If Xi could only get his head around the fact that Taiwan would make an excellent economic partner if he just let all his predatory ambitions go, the world could be a better place.
영어가 구수하신 분이네 😅