Forecast Discussion - April 23, 2024 - Multi-Day, Significant Severe Weather Event on Tap This Week
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- čas přidán 31. 05. 2024
- For educational purposes only. If you live in the affected areas, please stay tuned to your local National Weather Service office for the most accurate and up-to-date information.
A multi-day stretch of potentially significant severe weather is on tap for a broad swath of the central and southern US, beginning in earnest on Thursday, April 25. A series of potent troughs will be making their way into the region, interacting with rich moisture. This will set the stage for daily, robust severe weather chances through at least the weekend. The SPC has outlined Slight Risks (level 2/5) each day from Thursday through Sunday (April 28). In this video, we’ll compare and contrast model data to determine possible outcomes for the upcoming setups.
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Contents
0:00 Introduction, risk areas
5:41 Current observations
12:30 Model analysis of Thursday's setup
32:10 Model analysis of Friday's setup
40:48 Model analysis of the Saturday-Sunday setup
48:05 Wrap-up - Věda a technologie
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We always love whats on tap at Convective Chronicles 🍻
2010 as an analog to this season (Strong El Nino -> La Nina) didn't get started until late April as well... like clockwork.
Another thing I have noticed this season is models struggling quite a bit until about 24hrs until the event. Several folks have suggested the STJ being the culprit and I tend to agree, especially coming out of a strong El Nino.
Great points!
Makes sense. All the extra latent heat added upsteam on the equatorward side of the STJ and the resultant temp gradient doesn't get sampled by weather balloons until it's already over the U.S.
Looks like it could be an exciting few days here in southeast Kansas!
Thank you for what you do, Trey. I hope you know how valuable your work is to people. This channel truly is a gem!
Thank you so much! That really means a lot!
My refreshing every 30 seconds paid off!! Thanks as always Trey!
Hehe Trey are we sure 50 minutes is enough to cover all this? ;) As one pointed out yesterday, I think this is the most insane severe stretch of all hazards coming up since 2019 as you said, then it was 2011 and 2013 before that. SPC just pushing out the 15% on the day 4-8s like candy now. Actually will not be surprised to see 15% things through the 30th. These are the most classic looking troughs I have seen coming back to back in the plains/Midwest but mostly plains since probably then and the fact all these have tornado with some definitely significant tornado potential with the insane hail and winds opportunities is something I think chasers that been out there since the early 2010s have been wondering and waiting if we'd see again in true consistent fashion. These last 5 years as a whole I think chasers are getting spoiled to hell with how we not really seen a down year in activity for the most part in a year-round time frame but again maybe with how climate stuff is going we may not ever see a down year or below average tornado season again. Basically, only downside is chasers having or wanting to be out there for near year-round chasing like this, at SOME POINT, the 18-28 years old crowd may not feel it now but THAT much driving and on the road, it will destroy their backs by the time they hit 30-35 and then what? The downside is that there's a huge trade off chasing this hard with THIS many set ups with barely a break but again there is some benefit to people like me that live in the Northeast who only go sparingly...the saving on the wear and tear of a yearly grind. ;) I still wonder how 99% of the chasers manage to get time off from jobs and stuff to chase this much....my job and most we usually only get 2-3 weeks off in a year.
But as for this event I see the 27th and 28th to be the most prime and primed events of this. Actually I think one can say from the 25th-30th it's gonna be insane with the all hazards threat present. As pointed out the thing not lacking on these events is the DEEP moisture and that is already in place in TX and that will easily get into all the plains/Midwest sectors and linger even beyond into May so peak season is here to stay. Last events were dying on the moisture in the plains till you got to the Midwest but not this time and the shear in this case is gonna be incredible and the 850s are gonna set up for these insane hodographs I think we not seen since March 2023. That's how robust I think this pattern is shaping up to be in my opinion. Trey, your tour group is gonna have a field day with this and the significant tornado potential is absolutely on the cards for the stretch run. Definitely think this once again......actually scratch that, I was gonna say this has career week potential for chasers but to be honest, the last 5 years been career years for chasers.
This omega block high in the East only builds and continues even long term even on new model runs and it's pretty consistent across the board. Just means more troughs to keep rolling into the plains week after week. Only downside is this is going to have a trade off here in the Northeast and Southeast with fire and red flag issues in the cards with how wet we been all Winter and how fast stuff is growing but this is starting to dry out a bit now. Also need to watch Canada too as this may be another extreme fire season in Western and Eastern Canada.
Regardless, Everyone better strap in cause this has the chance to skyrocket the tornado numbers on the year to way above average.
I've seen a lot of amazing things in my travels but there is almost no comparison to the otherworldly strangeness and power of a intense summer storm on the prairie.
Amen to that!
Thanks for the Analysis Trey!
Any time; thanks for watching!
Great video! All days look interesting and could be quite the severe threat! We shall see what plays out!
Jon Davies been back reporting he did for Iowa thanks to you to a lot in part keep it up bro you do quality service to our community
Thank you!
I'm just here to get smarter and thumbs up everyone's comments...as always, muchos gracias Trey!
Thanks for the Videos Trey Keeping my eyes in the sky in Northeast Oklahoma
I always look forward to your forecast discussions. I am a novice storm chaser and appreciate it when you explain some of the finer points of how to interpret the data. I'm still trying to understand Skew-T charts, thanks for explaining them in your videos.
Thank you! I do have a full series on how to read and analyze skew-Ts and hodographs; just head over to the Playlists tab and go to the “Definitive Guide to Skew-Ts and Hodographs”.
Thank you for your in-depth videos!! Learn a lot!
Thank you so much!
CONVECTIVE CHRONICLES WOOOOO
Dallas is really drinking that severe weather jucie.Thanks as always, Trey!
Thank you for sharing your knowledge!
Looks like an interesting setup for northern CO on Thursday. Probably few supercells maybe a tornado. If only I didn't have finals...
Thank you Trey ! You know my family is in Omaha and Cedar Rapids. Awesome synopsis as always!
Thank you!!
been waiting for you to talk about this severe weather event, thanks for all you do 👍👍
I know how I'm spending my lunch break 😂
I've got sound. also.. been waiting for this anxiously!!! So excited.
I’ve been studying with the OU school of meteorology for 3 years now and your videos have been incredible with helping me understand what’s going on in our atmosphere. Thank you for what you do! Your analyses are some of the best on this platform.
Thank you so much! I really appreciate that!
Trey, thank you for these videos. I deeply appreciate your expertise and clickbait restraint. Best weather channel around.
Thank you so much!
Thanks trey. Appreciate it as always
I am stoked for Saturday, better charge my good camera!
Looking a little primed!
I am very skeptical of the dew piont progression on the nam as it almost poops out an outflow boundary on wensday that limits moisture on Thursday
The tornado in your profile picture is the most "perfect" looking tornado I've ever seen.
Yet again I'm in the risk area 2 days in a row 😭 hopefully at least one of those days it's moved away lol (actually I'm in it for 3 days ughhhh) I'm so worried for Saturday because how people are talking about it...
Saturday does look pretty potent but there’s still a bit of model discrepancy to work out, so just continue to keep an eye out. We’ll know more over the coming days
Moisture is pretty deep right now in OKC, see tonights OUN sounding. I suspect that moisture is too shallow on the GFS thurs afternoon as you mentioned. Looks like good streamwise vorticity on some of those soundings as well. Low level cape wasn't great on some of those but everything else looks pretty solid.
Woooow it's concerning how wide the warm sector it seems we will have thursday
Been looking forward to this, might make the drive, guess will see what Trey has to say!
Gonna be my first chase of the season here on Thursday. I’m gonna attempt chasing the whole sequence all the way from Thursday’s risk and possibly all the way into Sunday’s setup as well.
Good stuff here man, and really happy to see your subs climbing! Much deserved. Also, been a minute since you've uploaded event breakdowns, I know in the spring it's hard to do for obvious reasons, but do you still plan to do those as time allows? Would be great to see some, and MAYBE even a controversial one about the debatable EF scale itself? Again that one can be loaded, for or against in your commenrs section, but all of us know there can be improvements made to account for new and emerging technology in meteorology and atmospheric physics capabilities when it comes to both live tornadoes and also the damage left behind. If you have already covered this topic, then i totally wasted your time reading this comment 😂 If not, it'd be awesome to see one on that topic. Also, the Palm Sunday Outbreak (maybe working with limited forecasting intel there), individual tornadoes from the 2011 Super Outbreak such as Philadelphia, MS, Phil Campbell, Tuscaloosa, etc. Those would be fascinating case studies. Cheers man, awesome stuff as usual!
Thank you so much! It is difficult for me this time of year, as I’m on the road for 9 weeks guiding storm chasing tours. As you can imagine, my free time is pretty limited. So through mid-June, the content will be primarily forecast discussion videos, and perhaps an event breakdown or two after a notable one happens. I’ll pick back up with the older case studies again once my tour season is over; Palm Sunday is high up on my list!
Fantastic context as always. Interesting that the SPC amended their Day 3 this afternoon to delineate an area of enhanced risk. I can’t remember them ever amending the Day 3 like that.
Thank you! Yeah, it’s definitely a rare occurrence for them to upgrade a D3 like this.
Trey the man
Thanks Trey great vid, look forward to the next update. Are you going to be chasing Thurs thru Sunday? Going to be some tired storm chasers on Monday
Thank you! Yes; I’m out on tour now, so we’re chasing pretty much everything! Excited for the stretch ahead from a chase perspective.
Thanks for the update!
I could find any but when you mentioned about potential right quadrant severe weather, i was wondering the possibility or if its happened, if there ever has been a developing or non mature trough with stronger belt of flow on the entry region to trigger severe weather, I read up on some quasi-geostrophic stuff but it seems hard for entry region examples at all. @ConvectiveChronicles
Moore OK 2013 was a good example of a right entrance region event
Sometimes I send drone up above still air at surface I get very high winds just above ground you can tell a lot from drone data
Love listening to your videos. So freakin professional, you would think i was sitting here listening to a Lead from NWS... You don't dumb it down too much either. I find that using the terminology help the common person get used to what they mean and better understand it. On a side note, i live in SE OK. What's your take on the next few days for this area?
Thank you so much! I’d definitely keep an eye out Friday onward in SE OK. Main threat should be a bit removed from that area but severe is still possible.
@@ConvectiveChronicles Thanks! I look forward to todays update!
Getting to be near peak season this time last year not as active
Where does a forecast model go when it's out to lunch? The Mili-BAR!........ I'll see myself out.
Even northern extent, I think people from Sioux Falls, SD to Winona, MN should watch out.
I saw the 15% highlighted for us here in Northern Illinois on Day 6 Sunday, but I’m honestly wondering if Saturday will be the more concerning day with the little 500 mb disturbance ahead of the main trough on Saturday along the warm front.
It’s possible although it looks to be mostly a southern plains deal. Still, I’d keep an eye on it
I wonder if Tulsa will see any severe storms at all. I feel like we keep getting missed every time :(
Certainly a possibility!
Trey do you ever give any weight to the Sounding Analogue reference system or is more just interesting information but shouldn’t be used to predict similar outcomes?
It’s more just interesting information but shouldn’t really hold any weight in the forecast process
Great vid! Do you think Indianapolis will be impacted by any of these?
Thank you! Indy isn’t currently in a risk area but could be in future outlooks, so keep an eye out
Gotcha! Thanks Trey!
How unlucky is it to end up in the severe weather risk 3 days in a row lol great video Trey this one looks good and bad at the same time
Thank you! Yeah, this one looks potent
@@ConvectiveChronicles your welcome 😁 and also I think the GFS is being wild it showed a 100% Tor on Thursday in My are on the forecast sounding I choked when I first saw it
What are your thoughts on the ICON model solution for this event? To me it looks even more potent than the ECMWF and GFS solutions but I'm too much of a layman to analyse it correctly. You can find the ICON model solution on pivotal weather.
Also, I'm wondering how exactly you conclude that the euro model seems to be off if you only compare it to the GFS? Do you look at other models as well that you don't show on video or is it personal judgement and/or experience?
I don’t use the ICON model, mostly for simplicity’s sake, and the fact I don’t really know how it works or its biases. I did take a look at its solution, and it does look pretty potent.
As far as the euro being a little off, I made that statement because of the typical model biases I see. The GFS is usually the least potent and most progressive of the bunch, while the euro tends to be on the more aggressive side. The fact that the GFS is siding with the NAM, which is also typically more aggressive, makes me think that solution is a bit more accurate.
@@ConvectiveChronicles That makes sense, thanks for clarifying that!
They just updated Day 3 to an Enhanced Risk for the eastern Texas Panhandle, western Oklahoma, and southwest/south-central Kansas. Strong tornadoes are now on the table.
Might head up to the Wichita Falls/Fort Sill this Saturday. I know we’re several days out but any idea in particular you’re thinking the greatest potential for tornadoes will be?
Too soon to know for sure, but early indications are that Oklahoma will be right in the crosshairs for Saturday.
Funny, April 27th is also my birthday. Might be why I like storms so much idk
Lol mine is March 2 which was a day that Midwest u.s and Tennessee had a high risk in 2012
Hey man! What do you think about tornado potential in southwest missouri?
Too early to know for sure, but I’d certainly be on alert, especially Friday into the weekend
@@ConvectiveChronicles Thank you so much!
What drawing site do you use?
I use a Wacom Intuos Tablet and a Mac app called Presentify
Cmmoonnn bring on the big storms here in Dallas
Once again, another great weather analysis. You use the word cyclogenesis a lot, could you please expound on what that is?
Thank you! Cyclogenesis is just a fancy word for surface low development.
Looks like spc changed day 3 to an enhanced risk. Their discussion says strong tornadoes are a possibility.
Yes
My girlfriend loves a bit of deep moisture 😂 giggitygoo
Minnesota isn't currently circled in any of those maps. Are we safe here?
Too soon to know for sure but it looks like you might be far enough north to be clear. Still, I’d keep an eye out, especially in far southern portions of the state
No sound?
Close and try again, itll work, its an error with YT when vids are just uploaded
From what I've learned, give the video more time to fully process/upload on CZcams. Close out of application and restart the video in a few minutes or so.
Refresh the page; it’s a YT glitch with newly uploaded videos.
Thanks it worked @@Missionfailedwellgetemnexttime
Trey is a girlfriend in my potential outlook? Dunno if the SPC has that product quite yet
Haha I’ll have to check with Chris Broyles about that one
This isnt good a day 4 to 7 outlook with a 2 out 5 and day 3 already has a sig severe hatched 15% already
Only good yt for weather