Will Tesla disrupt Uber, or will it be another Lyft? Let me know what you think! ➡Raycon's Everyday Earbuds really are my favorite pair. Go to buyraycon.com/ctdots and experience them yourself ➡Consider supporting me on Patreon, Get Ad-Free access and exclusive content: www.patreon.com/ConnectingODots
I think you're overthinking this. Tesla doesn't need X nor advertising. Rollout FSD and as soon as driverless is allowed it's game over. People will see smart summons as they are having to run to their cars in the rain. They will see driverless cars going down the street, people accept it. Offer some free rides and Uber is finished. Uber pays their drivers 75% of the fare, remove that expense and Tesla has plenty of room to destroy them on price.
Totally agree with focus on certain markets. Putting a garbage service everywhere will just make the public hate the service. If they focus on key markets that works very well, cities and other governments will invite Tesla to bring the service there.
@@jamespaul2587 The discussion is once it is approved. Which of course it will be otherwise Google, GM and even Uber wouldn’t be spending billions developing driverless cars. Uber driver get 75% of the base fare. Tesla can easily make the fare 1/3, they won’t be paying a driver.
@@HopeIsFleeting Can you explain why? An new button for ride hailing makes the X app less user friendly? A new button makes ride hailing more complicated?
@@timtessman3107 Uber customers already know how to download apps. They'll leave Uber like fleas off a dead dog when there's a cheaper, better alternative. Driver not needed at some point, nor a customer data base.
If robo-taxi is ultimately priced very low per mile, it's going to disrupt mass-transit in cities too. Why ride the bus or train when you can get a private custom tailored ride (interior temp, seat position and media set to your preference on arrival) for a little bit more. Robo-taxi also has the advantage that it will pick you up and drop you off at your precise destination.
I’m a Uber/Lyft driver and I have absolutely no respect for either company. I am also a Tesla shareholder and hope that Tesla puts me out of the rideshare business soon. Uber, Lyft, Waymo and Cruise will not be able to compete with Tesla because they are fully integrated. All of the others cost per mile of operation will be considerably higher and will probably have to pay Tesla to license FSD and to use their charging system.
You left out the experience with autobidder and real-time arbitrage. Using similar techniques and algorithms, Tesla's margins can be optimized dynamically while undercutting competitor's margins.
would like to see Tesla rollout robotaxi service in Austin Tx first since they have the factory nearby. Once the service has been debugged then go after Uber's big 6 revenue generators
Me too. Texas first. More like Musk would be to launch Tesla test vehicles in Waymo's midst. Consider how he picked the only place in the world with competition to build the Shanghai plant.
As a Tesla investor, I think buying Uber or Lyft is a horrible idea. Tesla can develop its own software and integrate it from the ground up. People will rapidly jump ship on current ride hailing companies and use Tesla’s. I think many people will see that robotaxis are cheaper and more convenient than owning a vehicle. I predict that eventually Tesla will have a variety of options for people to rent boats, trucks, trailers, campers, quads….. This could disrupt all types of industries. 99% of people who own a camper do not use it enough to justify owning it. Also, trucks are extremely useful for hauling things or taking your dog places, but they are not always necessary. You could ride in a car to the store but ride in a truck home to fit everything you bought
Also, outside the USA, Uber doesn’t exist as a ride hailing service in its original form, where anybody with a car going in the same direction can give someone from the app a ride and earn a bit of money. Taxi companies got governments to require Uber to operate as registered taxi companies and they are basically a taxi ordering app. I’m not sure if Tesla will crack that legislation challenge because they will crush the existing taxi businesses as well and those taxi operators will fight hard.
But for deliveries, don’t require airbags, nor small overlap front collision testing, no crash safety at all. No sound deadening windows, no double latch doors. No 4 second 0-60 mph. And likely not 2 ton weight.
Yeah basically every delivery job will be taken over by Tesla. Food delivered by Tesla, groceries delivered by Tesla, packages delivered by Tesla. Just wait until the cyber van pulls up and Optimus hops out with your Amazon order.
@@loweryjk i don’t think Amazon would ever adopt Tesla products. Too much bad blood between bezos and Elon. I could be wrong. They are in the business of making money. And Tesla products would make business sense to almost every company….. another thought just hit me it’s seeming like as soon as robotaxi is introduced, and implemented insidiously, the world as we know it is going to change drastically. Scary how seemingly overnight, the world will be transformed first by robotaxi, then Optimus. People have no idea what’s about to happen. It’s going to get bad real quick especially on the job market.
5:20 - I don’t know which version I have but I love Raycons. They are the lightest, in the smallest case (unlike my Beats brick), of a half dozen different brands I have; they hardly ever fall out (using right ear now), they spell correctly from dictation as well as any, & MUCH better than some. I wish I had a cover for the case, as the paint is wearing off with use in pocket. I love rose gold, it doesn’t scream “Look at me“ like white or black even; and I got a major kick out of who Ray is, when I found out 🔥 Huge thanks for the recommendation CTD!
Sorry, I lied - inadvertently. I saw the lady in the ad touching hers in the ear, reached to touch mine and realized I’m wearing beats right now at home. at work I only use Raycon. Everything else is too big, too visible, not loud enough, or more serious issues. But everything else I wrote is true
Tesla doesn't have to fully compete in the 6 profitable cities. They can choose the most profitable areas, routes and times with a lower number of Cars. Tesla can charge a portion ( Ex: 75% of Uber rate) to dominate those rides and let Uber cover the less profitable times and routes until TESLA has sufficient cars on the road. Faster penetration and higher margins in less time.
I tend to agree, I loved the point about Blockbuster and Nokia. Once disrupted by a rapidly producing competitor, their value falls surprisingly rapidly to near zero.
If Tesla Ridesharing has the price advantage we think, requiring a button on the X app isn't that important because downloading a new Tesla app is not a barrier. I often have my Uber app and Lyft app fight it out and I'll select the one that's cheaper on every single ride - I do this for a $3 dollar advantage. I'd be happy to let the Tesla app join the fight. For Tesla, in the beginning, it will be about price and time until pickup. Once they get their numbers up to Uber/Lyft, it will just be about price.
You could start it up in any city with former leased vehicles. Any city worldwide can start with an airport-based service to the CBD and in the connecting corridor. Add a extra button if help with luggage is required. Then send a vehicle with a human to handle the luggage. I gave up driving Uber as I was fed up with peak-hour traffic. If sitting in an autonomous vehicle driver stress is less and can work longer hours. One complication is finding legal spots to pull over to get passengers in or out. Any city worldwide can start with an airport-based service to the CBD and the connecting corridor. In practice that would also mean some out of zones trips. The initial operation could send out offers to subscribers based on the vehicle path while it is traveling back to the operational zone. Consider senior citizens as occupiers of the driver's seats. This would cover any delays while regulatory approval is ironed out.
TESLA doesn’t need UBER/LYFT, nor any ride share data from any other companies, they have unassailable lead with all the data they get from their existing fleeting. TESLA knows which of their cars are doing ride share . 😁😁😁😁
While I see them advertising the Tesla app on X, I'm not sure they will integrate the cab experience with X (but they will integrate with Grok. As Grok becomes a personal assistant, I could see "get me a cab" integration then.) I think it's more likely to start out as a Tesla app with Grok integration. Users already have the Tesla app on their phones, so a new tab to "add to the network" is a simple update. Using X doesn't make as much sense to me, because Tesla doesn't own X. What if X was sold, or went bankrupt? Tesla would be out of luck. Tesla should be master of its own destiny, and (external) software agnostic. If Grok goes away, they could integrate with GPT or whatever without skipping a beat, and instead of advertising on X they could switch to any other platform.
The only threat for Tesla’s RoboTaxi I can see is vandalism. Either plain vandalism or specific vandalism by competitors/taxi drivers. In a manned taxi people behave more or less. People tend to behave differently when no one is watching.
Suggested feature: Alert rider if any personal item was forgotten in the car! Based on 2 pics of the cab (before rider enters and after exit) and a bit of AI. Not an invasion of privacy at those times.
Sun soo approximately sandy. Fight the enemy where they aren't. Vegas loop and shortcut toll tunnels, countries where uber can't work, long haul routes.....once tesla becomes ubiquitous elsewhere then they out compete uber as everyone expects tesla-everywhere.
Tesla could license out hail service to Meta, and others that have users all over the world not only X for Americans. So - FSD is important for Tesla, which everything app that has it is of little difference for Tesla, who can be on all inc Chinas social apps.
Uber bosses will be ordering Robo taxis in the millions. Instantly they remove the drain on their profit margins. The drivers. In the long term its not looking good for delivery and taxi drivers in the West.
All I know is if the driver is nice I tip 20% or even more if it a short trip, not having to tip a driver saves me $ (I know I do not have to tip, but I am inclined to)
I…. Am a Uber/Lyft Rideshare driver and a Tesla shareholder. I am hopeful that Tesla’s RoboTaxi service will put me out of the Rideshare business soon. The increase in my stock price will make my loss of income from Uber/Lyft inconsequential.😂
I dont think you nees to spend money to aquire customers. The product (if it works) will be so mind blowing and magical. People will run to their appstore and use it immediately. No need to persuade them at all
in the far future the FSD software comes with the car. This will be when owning a car is no longer necessary because robotaxi fulfill all transportation needs at lower costs. Those who still buy a car can add their car to the robotaxi pool and profit is shared so it's a win/win, no one loses.
This is a really good analysis. And these few sentences are the most profound change we will see this century: “we're not just witnessing the potential fall of a ride hailing giant we're seeing the birth of a new paradigm in urban transportation one where AID driven electric vehicles don't just replace taxis but fundamentally alter how we think about car ownership City Planning and Mobility itself in a paradigm where cars are far more than just cars they are shape-shifting autonomous robots”
If you owned a tesla with and didnt buy FSD subscription, can you add your car to the robot taxi fleet and then get it to drive yourself to a location and then turn off robo taxi so that you get a ride without having to pay for FSD lol?
The edge cases now are basically down to people getting stuck. Which can be solved by remote driver assistants. The technology is ready to go but we're in an interesting spot where the software is improving at such a rate, Tesla might as well wait 12 months for FSD to see a 100x improvement. (If they're right and it really is improving at a rate of 10x every 6 months).
@@HopeIsFleeting Yes, I know we humans have trouble comprehending exponential rates of improvement. But I still don’t think society is ready to approve Tesla Cybercab for at least two more years. Just my personal opinion based on instinct. However, I hope it’s approved sooner, as I’m fully invested in Tesla stock.
😄Good day from GOONELLABAH, NSW! 🌏 I'll embark on a six-month journey to circumnavigate Australia in two CYBERTRUCKs and a Tesla Semi, covering 22,000 kilometres at the end of February 2025. - Cheers, Ian Cleland
Wow, x app will have ride hailing. Could they replace payment app as well? I bet you're about to say so. When buying a Tesla there's a 3rd party app that handle the payment - X everything app could replace it. And could it process robotaxi payments as well? Need this stuff.
Don’t fool yourself, Tesla Robotaxis will be 10x Uber’s 1.5 mill drivers. US fleet is 300 million cars. Expect to replace 100 million with 20 mill taxis, 2 mill pA. Tesla will need to quadruple present production of 1 million vehicles pA for 5 years - then make replacements. This is why generation 3 is required - high production numbers, high automation, ease of assembly.
Would work excellent where i am cause every intersection i sit at has at least 2 and typically 5 teslas waiting there which means you would have super easy access to rides
Yea, they're called car parks (parking lots for the Yanks). With so many cars taken off the road, massive areas of parking will open up that Tesla can use for the things you've listed.
@@furryrug5998 Of course people realise this. It's just not an issue because of the amount of parking that will be opened up because of the number of cars that will be taken off the road.
@@HopeIsFleeting If they knew they would require a massive supercharger network upgrade why did Elon fire the bulk of team who deal with the infrastructure rollout? Good public transport gets cars off the road. Robotaxi may actually increase the number of vehicles on the road.
@@furryrug5998 Good question with several answers. 1) You need to keep a good balance sheet in the present to assure future growth. Tesla had to trim the fact to maintain positive cash flow and keep investing in more immediate concerns like acquiring enough compute to create the models needed for FSD. 2) Cars have not yet been taken off the roads so these parking lots are not yet acquirable. 3) Tesla already has the best charging network in the world. Now they have control of the charging standard, they are in a position where they can let other people build charging infrastructure for them which they have access to. As for public transport, you're right. Taxis are a service open to the public so I would class them as public transport in a way. The difference is, they are not tied to one route, making them more convenient than buses. However I foresee Tesla building autonomous buses for major transport routes too. I see no outcome where robotaxi increases the amount of cars being produced. Your average car is used around 2% of the time. If that number goes up to 4%, that means you need half the amount of cars for the same amount of travel and so on. There is absolutely no reason why personal transport and public transport cannot coincide though. In fact, that would be the best way to travel, let's say, from a house in the middle of nowhere where public transport does not go and, well, anywhere else. Unless you think that people who live in the middle of nowhere shouldn't travel??
The voices calling for Tesla to buy Uber/Lyft are idiotic. Tesla only makes small acquisitions for specific tech or patents. I don't see either Uber or Lyft having any "secret sauce" and Tesla will easily launch a ride hailing feature within the Tesla app. I doubt they will embed it within X.
Tesla has purchased very few companies in its history. They have the software capability to write an app that is superior to Uber in a month. Additionally, it's doubtful that Uber software could be easily integrated into the software running autopilot. Tesla's brand awareness is superior to Uber so I just don't see where there's a fit.
You forgot to mention that Tesla cars off peak in their robo taxi role can be used for grid stabilization with its vehicle to grid tech plus its HW 3 / 4 computer can be used for AI inference also generating revenue
I agree with your overall sentiment and general business moves. But these are all extreme best case scenarios and somewhat reaching in nature. Deployment is a totally different matter.
Uber is about 10x overvalued vs. net income. It should be around $15 billion. There is no significant growth path with Robotaxi for Tesla. The whole global taxi/ride-hailing business is around $250 billion a year.
The most omportan example is Lyft. It could be as good as Uber and possibly cost slightly less, but people say "why do i need two ride-hailing apps" and keep using uber. With X, many - including Uber users - already have it
@@ConnectingODots Your Lyft example is common with whoever wins a category. However, Tesla will essentially be a new category of self-driving ride hailing and the easy category winner. This new category will be superior to the driver version with cheaper costs, no drivers, and an electric fleet. You don’t need to spend $40 Billion on Twitter to make that successful - especially when a huge portion of the world already follows your every move. So, my point is simply that when you own and control a vastly superior category, a button on Twitter will make no difference.
Clearly you never heard of regulations, liability, passengers damaging vehicle, Autopilot is no where near ready to drive on their own, Tesla does not want to be on the hook when someone gets kill which would happen. Robotaxis is just a stock pump by Elon Musk. Most drivers will not want to have their car get mess up by passenger.
Most of these executives are panicking for no reason. *RoboTaxis* are first going to be bought by deep-pocketed _Fleet Companies_ (like *Yellow Cab* in *New York.* ) *Uber* and *Lyft* will be the next big purchasers. Then the rare individuals. *RoboTaxi* is a way to clear some of the *Liability* side of a corporate balance sheet.
No. It has never been done. But it is constantly improving, each version drives longer without mistakes, fatal mistakes are less and less over time. So if the progress continues it will reach full self driving. At the moment Tesla fsd runs on 4-5 year old hardware (hw3). Maybe it‘s not good enough to excel on this hardware. Maybe the next gen or gen after that is needed to run everythibg smoothly. Maybe training gets you only to 99.9% perfection but you need 99.999. in my opinion it looks like they will solve it over time - but I an not 100% sure, there is still uncertrainty in my opinion. But it will get crazy good to become the best assisting system by far for sure. If it gets us to full autonomy is uncertain. But it looks like it at the moment…
Uber has nothing other than app, a well developed app for using other people time and assets/cars from personal gain. They are dead as we speak. Tesla has been building this FSD since the beginning. I own a Tesla with FSD and when the time comes I'll include it in the Robotaxi fleet, and I'll also be happy and excited to use a robotaxi when my car is out, making me money. One last thing, I don't think Tesla will need to offer free rides, being that the demand for a Robotaxi will be super super! Crazy! Tesla can easily outbid anyone on price. Thank you for video. 😎🙏
Kind of the opposite. There won't be taxi _drivers,_ but taxi _services_ will be bigger than ever, and there will be other sorts of jobs in the industry to service the increased number of taxis on the road.
X marks the spot. Makes sense. And X's payment system can tie into its blue checkmark validation system. Blue Checks could be the subscription/customer validation system. And of course, the front door to games/movies/features you want while traveling to your destination.
X will be so bogged down with features, it'll be unusable. I want my social media app to be separate from my ride hailing app. There is no reason for them to be the same app. It'll just worsen the user experience. The only reason Tesla might do this is because it's gimmicky and it'll let people know Robotaxis are a thing.
This was a thoughtful video ... and got me thinking a bit differently was well. Uber, Lyft, Robotaxis, etc. - all extra and for-profit. ... What about city buses and school buses and other urban (or rural) transportation, much of which is considered a city public service paid for by tax dollars. And of course, parking spaces, lots, above & below ground garages, etc., and all the traffic congestion. The day may come (as it already has in a few places in the world), when ICE vehicles maybe be prohibited in (some parts of) cities and the "Robotaxis fleet operators" may be city personnel and their contractors who would bear all the overhead costs using municipal funds. Ride costs, tickets, passes, etc., would be very cheap; perhaps free for seniors, veterans, school children, people with disabilities, etc. Customers who needed a vehicle (a truck, etc.) for an extended period of time or needed one for a road-trip for business or family or pleasure still might want a personal car or could just be temporarily assigned (or rented) one by the city fleet services. In other words, why not envision Robotaxis simply as a public service, paid for like other (yesterday's) urban transit services.
Brad Templeton laid out many of the changes that would come with autonomous vehicles a long time ago on his Robocars blog. It's a bit dated now but well worth a read.
oh nice. Where tax dollars are used to offer transportation services, they can just pay robotaxi to do it for them at lower cost and better service. Make those tax dollars go farther. Maybe eliminating all their current parking space needs will save more tax dollars as well.
@@alanlight7740Thanks. I will look for that post. I just haven't seen or read much discussion about autonomous taxi service being discussed as a public service just like city buses, transportation infrastures, subways, and sidewalks. They are usually compared to private cars or "cab services."
@@WarrenLacefield - do a search for Brad Templeton robocars and you should find it easily. It's much more detailed than a single post. I'm thinking he started putting it all together about 15 to 20 years ago. He did discuss comparisons to public transportation, especially in the section titled "The Green Transit Myth". Public transportation did not come out well in the comparison. Also much about how a decreasing need for parking spaces would affect built environments in positive ways. Not linking because CZcams handles that badly sometimes.
Excellent breakdown. Things would be coming along nicely if Elon wasn’t endorsing project 2025. I find it hard to believe he has read that thing and agrees with it. And it is an all or nothing situation, don’t get to just choose which parts you like and which you wont
All perhaps logical, except for a few key points. Those off-lease Teslas have hardware 3, which we know is inadewuate gor full self driving. We know this because hardware level 4 is in the latest cars and hardware 5 is in development. So first, FSD needs to happen. And happen in rain and snow at night, too. Corporate users of black cars ("hailed" not taxis) rely on them to operate without regard to weather. And the Cybertaxi would need taxi licenses on every car, currently $500,000 to $1,000,000 per taxi in major cities. It can only avoid the stiff price of taxi medallions by being CyberHail or Cyberlimo, it can't be called a taxi. And then there's the non-trivial need to have the cyberfleet all wrapped or painted in a uniform scheme, perhaps black like the black cars. And, to retrofit hardware capable of running FSD, which presumably means hardware 5. Of course, commercial vehicles can't just park on the streets at night, so Tesla will need warehouses chock full of charging stations, to keep their fleet ready overnight. And peons with Windex and vacuum cleaners to keep the insides clean. Any hack driver can tell you that's vital. Washing the outside probably is best done at the same warehouses or lots. Not an impossible task, but not a cheap or easy one.
I don't agree that "we know" hw3 is inadequate. I have a 2018 M3 with HW3 and it seems to be quite adequate in its progression thus far. Elon has stated that HW3 will be adequate. He also said HW4 and AI5 will achieve greater safety than HW3. So I guess it all comes down to the definition of "adequate". But at this point, the Tesla FSD team are the only ones that know HW3's cameras/inference capabilities. The rest of us can only base it on guesswork and current FSD performance.
Longtime I think the revenue from Robotaxis will be less than most Tesla bulls predict, as the cost for rides will go down a lot over time, but nonetheless it is a huge market and I think Tesla is well positioned to grab a good part of that.
I addressed the revenue part on my previous Robotaxi video. Price will drop, but there will be more rides and besides that also other revenue streams czcams.com/video/98_UKOZBUFE/video.html
Will Tesla disrupt Uber, or will it be another Lyft? Let me know what you think!
➡Raycon's Everyday Earbuds really are my favorite pair. Go to buyraycon.com/ctdots and experience them yourself
➡Consider supporting me on Patreon, Get Ad-Free access and exclusive content: www.patreon.com/ConnectingODots
I don’t see how Uber competes With Tesla. The driver is the main cost, the human. Get rid of him, and it’s smooth sailing
@@ConnectingODots Yes, just based on Tesla drivers. The cars are safer right now. The Cybercab will take 2-3 more years.
Well said. It’s already done ✅ Robots and AI will be Tesla’s next frontier. They will be the biggest company ever and permanently
k
I think you're overthinking this. Tesla doesn't need X nor advertising. Rollout FSD and as soon as driverless is allowed it's game over. People will see smart summons as they are having to run to their cars in the rain. They will see driverless cars going down the street, people accept it. Offer some free rides and Uber is finished. Uber pays their drivers 75% of the fare, remove that expense and Tesla has plenty of room to destroy them on price.
Bang on, Tesla does not need Uber.
Totally agree with focus on certain markets. Putting a garbage service everywhere will just make the public hate the service.
If they focus on key markets that works very well, cities and other governments will invite Tesla to bring the service there.
If Tesla can give me a ride for 1/3 the price, plus there's no one to tip, then it might be worth it to just not own a car.
They won't offer a service at 1/3 the cost, and autonomous driving still requires regulatory approval.
@@jamespaul2587 The discussion is once it is approved. Which of course it will be otherwise Google, GM and even Uber wouldn’t be spending billions developing driverless cars. Uber driver get 75% of the base fare. Tesla can easily make the fare 1/3, they won’t be paying a driver.
hail through X. thats very intresting!
Indeed!
Elon always wanted to create a us "you pay / chat " perfect way of introducing payments.
Edit: we not you ... we chat / pay
Brilliant! That would also dovetail with Elon’s desire to make X the everything app (e.g. banking)
It would make X less user friendly AND make it harder to hail a rabotaxi. Totally stupid idea.
@@HopeIsFleeting Can you explain why?
An new button for ride hailing makes the X app less user friendly?
A new button makes ride hailing more complicated?
Tesla doesn't need anything from Uber. Nothing.
Tesla does need something from Uber... Uber's Customers.
BTW, not returning these Customers to Uber
@@timtessman3107 Uber customers already know how to download apps. They'll leave Uber like fleas off a dead dog when there's a cheaper, better alternative. Driver not needed at some point, nor a customer data base.
@@timtessman3107 Uber wishes that was true but it will be as simple as customers downloading an app for lower cost service without unneeded driver.
Good stuff. Riding in a new cyber cab is on my bucket list. At my age it can't come soon enough, lol. Thanks for your report!
Cringe alert
On mine as well (and Cybertruck too!)
That’s why everyone should load up on Tesla stock before it goes ballistic 😅
If robo-taxi is ultimately priced very low per mile, it's going to disrupt mass-transit in cities too. Why ride the bus or train when you can get a private custom tailored ride (interior temp, seat position and media set to your preference on arrival) for a little bit more. Robo-taxi also has the advantage that it will pick you up and drop you off at your precise destination.
Given that all drivers are completely blead out and talk bad to riders about the company i don't see anyone being loyal to "the brand"
😂😂😂 met them all have you?
@@mervstash3692 are you driving for Uber at the moment?
@@CHMichael no mate, I have a real job
I’m a Uber/Lyft driver and I have absolutely no respect for either company. I am also a Tesla shareholder and hope that Tesla puts me out of the rideshare business soon. Uber, Lyft, Waymo and Cruise will not be able to compete with Tesla because they are fully integrated. All of the others cost per mile of operation will be considerably higher and will probably have to pay Tesla to license FSD and to use their charging system.
@@G41251 thanks paid bot
Tesla doesn’t have to give free rides. There are many stores, like the supermarkets, will pay Tesla to bring the customers to their stores to shop.
You left out the experience with autobidder and real-time arbitrage. Using similar techniques and algorithms, Tesla's margins can be optimized dynamically while undercutting competitor's margins.
Uber investors keep saying uber has some unique price surge pricing method but like you said, it's not a rocket science
would like to see Tesla rollout robotaxi service in Austin Tx first since they have the factory nearby. Once the service has been debugged then go after Uber's big 6 revenue generators
Cherry picking, the best strategy, Uber will be decimated. They will go the way of blockbuster. 21:55
Me too. Texas first.
More like Musk would be to launch Tesla test vehicles in Waymo's midst.
Consider how he picked the only place in the world with competition to build the Shanghai plant.
This thinking is too small, IMO.
Tesla is trying to disrupt oil….
It’s doing that by replacing individual vehicle ownership. It’s a new market.
As a Tesla investor, I think buying Uber or Lyft is a horrible idea. Tesla can develop its own software and integrate it from the ground up. People will rapidly jump ship on current ride hailing companies and use Tesla’s.
I think many people will see that robotaxis are cheaper and more convenient than owning a vehicle. I predict that eventually Tesla will have a variety of options for people to rent boats, trucks, trailers, campers, quads…..
This could disrupt all types of industries. 99% of people who own a camper do not use it enough to justify owning it. Also, trucks are extremely useful for hauling things or taking your dog places, but they are not always necessary. You could ride in a car to the store but ride in a truck home to fit everything you bought
Also, outside the USA, Uber doesn’t exist as a ride hailing service in its original form, where anybody with a car going in the same direction can give someone from the app a ride and earn a bit of money. Taxi companies got governments to require Uber to operate as registered taxi companies and they are basically a taxi ordering app. I’m not sure if Tesla will crack that legislation challenge because they will crush the existing taxi businesses as well and those taxi operators will fight hard.
robotaxi can also deliver groceries and hot food.
But for deliveries, don’t require airbags, nor small overlap front collision testing, no crash safety at all.
No sound deadening windows, no double latch doors. No 4 second 0-60 mph.
And likely not 2 ton weight.
@@iandavies4853not worth dropping standards for a small niche.
It can't do jack sh1t. It doesn't exist
Holy shit I just realized…. The advent of the robo-taxi. Also means the end of delivery gig apps, with the exception of maybe Amazon flex. Wow
Yeah basically every delivery job will be taken over by Tesla. Food delivered by Tesla, groceries delivered by Tesla, packages delivered by Tesla. Just wait until the cyber van pulls up and Optimus hops out with your Amazon order.
@@loweryjk i don’t think Amazon would ever adopt Tesla products. Too much bad blood between bezos and Elon. I could be wrong. They are in the business of making money. And Tesla products would make business sense to almost every company….. another thought just hit me it’s seeming like as soon as robotaxi is introduced, and implemented insidiously, the world as we know it is going to change drastically. Scary how seemingly overnight, the world will be transformed first by robotaxi, then Optimus. People have no idea what’s about to happen. It’s going to get bad real quick especially on the job market.
Amazon will be very quickly on board!
Except Robotaxi isn't real champ
@@mervstash3692 will be soon champ
X-cabs. Heard it here first...
5:20 - I don’t know which version I have but I love Raycons. They are the lightest, in the smallest case (unlike my Beats brick), of a half dozen different brands I have; they hardly ever fall out (using right ear now), they spell correctly from dictation as well as any, & MUCH better than some.
I wish I had a cover for the case, as the paint is wearing off with use in pocket.
I love rose gold, it doesn’t scream “Look at me“ like white or black even; and I got a major kick out of who Ray is, when I found out 🔥
Huge thanks for the recommendation CTD!
Sorry, I lied - inadvertently. I saw the lady in the ad touching hers in the ear, reached to touch mine and realized I’m wearing beats right now at home. at work I only use Raycon. Everything else is too big, too visible, not loud enough, or more serious issues.
But everything else I wrote is true
Uber gets something like 25% of the fare. Stupid to think that getting 100% of the fare isn’t a huge deal.
🧢🧢
This makes so much sense how valuable Elon’s purchase of Twitter was!
Tesla doesn't have to fully compete in the 6 profitable cities. They can choose the most profitable areas, routes and times with a lower number of Cars. Tesla can charge a portion ( Ex: 75% of Uber rate) to dominate those rides and let Uber cover the less profitable times and routes until TESLA has sufficient cars on the road. Faster penetration and higher margins in less time.
“profitable” cities? Go on. Pull the other leg😂
Gary Black is an average thinker.
He has been constantly wrong
I tend to agree, I loved the point about Blockbuster and Nokia. Once disrupted by a rapidly producing competitor, their value falls surprisingly rapidly to near zero.
If Tesla Ridesharing has the price advantage we think, requiring a button on the X app isn't that important because downloading a new Tesla app is not a barrier. I often have my Uber app and Lyft app fight it out and I'll select the one that's cheaper on every single ride - I do this for a $3 dollar advantage. I'd be happy to let the Tesla app join the fight. For Tesla, in the beginning, it will be about price and time until pickup. Once they get their numbers up to Uber/Lyft, it will just be about price.
But since there is no driver, you really can't call it ride sharing
You could start it up in any city with former leased vehicles.
Any city worldwide can start with an airport-based service to the CBD and in the connecting corridor.
Add a extra button if help with luggage is required.
Then send a vehicle with a human to handle the luggage.
I gave up driving Uber as I was fed up with peak-hour traffic.
If sitting in an autonomous vehicle driver stress is less and can work longer hours.
One complication is finding legal spots to pull over to get passengers in or out.
Any city worldwide can start with an airport-based service to the CBD and the connecting corridor.
In practice that would also mean some out of zones trips.
The initial operation could send out offers to subscribers based on the vehicle path while it is traveling back to the operational zone.
Consider senior citizens as occupiers of the driver's seats. This would cover any delays while regulatory approval is ironed out.
It’s no longer a question of if this happens but when. I got V12.4.3 last week and it again moves the bar forward significantly.
TESLA doesn’t need UBER/LYFT, nor any ride share data from any other companies, they have unassailable lead with all the data they get from their existing fleeting.
TESLA knows which of their cars are doing ride share . 😁😁😁😁
Thanks!
I highly appreciate it, thank you 🙏
@@ConnectingODots even though, Google probably takes half 😂
I think Tesla needs to change their parts stamp to read: "Made on Earth by Humans...and Robots."
... maybe better:
"Made on Earth by Humans...abusing Robots."
@@intelligentcomputing “Teslas Designed by humans …
Made by Optimi” 👍
(Like iPhones,
Made in China …
Designed in Cupertino, California)
Brillant and well-articulated. Thank you, CTD.
While I see them advertising the Tesla app on X, I'm not sure they will integrate the cab experience with X (but they will integrate with Grok. As Grok becomes a personal assistant, I could see "get me a cab" integration then.) I think it's more likely to start out as a Tesla app with Grok integration. Users already have the Tesla app on their phones, so a new tab to "add to the network" is a simple update. Using X doesn't make as much sense to me, because Tesla doesn't own X. What if X was sold, or went bankrupt? Tesla would be out of luck. Tesla should be master of its own destiny, and (external) software agnostic. If Grok goes away, they could integrate with GPT or whatever without skipping a beat, and instead of advertising on X they could switch to any other platform.
The only threat for Tesla’s RoboTaxi I can see is vandalism. Either plain vandalism or specific vandalism by competitors/taxi drivers.
In a manned taxi people behave more or less. People tend to behave differently when no one is watching.
I am so looking forward to the future.
It amazes me, what could be reality in a foreseeable future.
The present is already amazing, the future is unbelievable! What a time to be alive.
Suggested feature:
Alert rider if any personal item was forgotten in the car!
Based on 2 pics of the cab (before rider enters and after exit) and a bit of AI.
Not an invasion of privacy at those times.
Sun soo approximately sandy. Fight the enemy where they aren't. Vegas loop and shortcut toll tunnels, countries where uber can't work, long haul routes.....once tesla becomes ubiquitous elsewhere then they out compete uber as everyone expects tesla-everywhere.
Basic income will be needed for people
Tesla could license out hail service to Meta, and others that have users all over the world not only X for Americans. So - FSD is important for Tesla, which everything app that has it is of little difference for Tesla, who can be on all inc Chinas social apps.
Change is coming. Interesting take on possible events.
Uber bosses will be ordering Robo taxis in the millions. Instantly they remove the drain on their profit margins. The drivers. In the long term its not looking good for delivery and taxi drivers in the West.
Buying Uber would be stupid. It'll take years for Tesla to build enough RoboTaxis, at which point they'll just eat Uber's lunch.
All I know is if the driver is nice I tip 20% or even more if it a short trip, not having to tip a driver saves me $ (I know I do not have to tip, but I am inclined to)
Well thought out and well said. Thank you. I have just happily subscribed.
I…. Am a Uber/Lyft Rideshare driver and a Tesla shareholder. I am hopeful that Tesla’s RoboTaxi service will put me out of the Rideshare business soon. The increase in my stock price will make my loss of income from Uber/Lyft inconsequential.😂
I dont think you nees to spend money to aquire customers. The product (if it works) will be so mind blowing and magical. People will run to their appstore and use it immediately. No need to persuade them at all
I thought the Tesla app would be the interface. While I like X, having people sign up for X is too much.
in the far future the FSD software comes with the car. This will be when owning a car is no longer necessary because robotaxi fulfill all transportation needs at lower costs. Those who still buy a car can add their car to the robotaxi pool and profit is shared so it's a win/win, no one loses.
This is a really good analysis. And these few sentences are the most profound change we will see this century: “we're not just witnessing the potential fall of a ride hailing giant we're seeing the birth of a new paradigm in urban transportation one where AID driven electric vehicles
don't just replace taxis but
fundamentally alter how we think about car ownership City Planning and Mobility itself in a paradigm where cars are far
more than just cars they are
shape-shifting autonomous robots”
If you owned a tesla with and didnt buy FSD subscription, can you add your car to the robot taxi fleet and then get it to drive yourself to a location and then turn off robo taxi so that you get a ride without having to pay for FSD lol?
Robotaxi is still at least two years away, though. Still too many unsolved edge cases to set your Cybercabs free in the wild.
The edge cases now are basically down to people getting stuck. Which can be solved by remote driver assistants. The technology is ready to go but we're in an interesting spot where the software is improving at such a rate, Tesla might as well wait 12 months for FSD to see a 100x improvement. (If they're right and it really is improving at a rate of 10x every 6 months).
Tops.
@@HopeIsFleeting Yes, I know we humans have trouble comprehending exponential rates of improvement. But I still don’t think society is ready to approve Tesla Cybercab for at least two more years. Just my personal opinion based on instinct. However, I hope it’s approved sooner, as I’m fully invested in Tesla stock.
Just wow. And Lyft will be gone before Uber even starts sweating. Stunning, and inevitable.
😄Good day from GOONELLABAH, NSW! 🌏
I'll embark on a six-month journey to circumnavigate Australia in two CYBERTRUCKs and a Tesla Semi, covering 22,000 kilometres at the end of February 2025. - Cheers, Ian Cleland
No you won't champ. We have actual safety standards on Australian roads.
Do you need a co driver? Sounds like an amazing adventure Cheers
@@joezip6389 Yes, I will. People will come to me in December. Could you send me your information?
Are these robotaxis in the room?
Has Elvis left the Robotaxi?
One big prob, Tesla's are not autonomous, though their drivers are..
In 3, 2, 1...
Wow, x app will have ride hailing. Could they replace payment app as well? I bet you're about to say so. When buying a Tesla there's a 3rd party app that handle the payment - X everything app could replace it. And could it process robotaxi payments as well? Need this stuff.
Don’t fool yourself, Tesla Robotaxis will be 10x Uber’s 1.5 mill drivers.
US fleet is 300 million cars. Expect to replace 100 million with 20 mill taxis, 2 mill pA.
Tesla will need to quadruple present production of 1 million vehicles pA for 5 years - then make replacements.
This is why generation 3 is required - high production numbers, high automation, ease of assembly.
Would work excellent where i am cause every intersection i sit at has at least 2 and typically 5 teslas waiting there which means you would have super easy access to rides
Great analysis on this topic!
Thanks for putting out the video!❤
The Robotaxis will need fleet storage/charging/cleaning centers right?
Yip, but nobody else seems to realise this lol.
It’s all about the share price.
Yea, they're called car parks (parking lots for the Yanks). With so many cars taken off the road, massive areas of parking will open up that Tesla can use for the things you've listed.
@@furryrug5998 Of course people realise this. It's just not an issue because of the amount of parking that will be opened up because of the number of cars that will be taken off the road.
@@HopeIsFleeting If they knew they would require a massive supercharger network upgrade why did Elon fire the bulk of team who deal with the infrastructure rollout?
Good public transport gets cars off the road. Robotaxi may actually increase the number of vehicles on the road.
@@furryrug5998 Good question with several answers.
1) You need to keep a good balance sheet in the present to assure future growth. Tesla had to trim the fact to maintain positive cash flow and keep investing in more immediate concerns like acquiring enough compute to create the models needed for FSD.
2) Cars have not yet been taken off the roads so these parking lots are not yet acquirable.
3) Tesla already has the best charging network in the world. Now they have control of the charging standard, they are in a position where they can let other people build charging infrastructure for them which they have access to.
As for public transport, you're right. Taxis are a service open to the public so I would class them as public transport in a way. The difference is, they are not tied to one route, making them more convenient than buses. However I foresee Tesla building autonomous buses for major transport routes too.
I see no outcome where robotaxi increases the amount of cars being produced. Your average car is used around 2% of the time. If that number goes up to 4%, that means you need half the amount of cars for the same amount of travel and so on.
There is absolutely no reason why personal transport and public transport cannot coincide though. In fact, that would be the best way to travel, let's say, from a house in the middle of nowhere where public transport does not go and, well, anywhere else. Unless you think that people who live in the middle of nowhere shouldn't travel??
The voices calling for Tesla to buy Uber/Lyft are idiotic. Tesla only makes small acquisitions for specific tech or patents. I don't see either Uber or Lyft having any "secret sauce" and Tesla will easily launch a ride hailing feature within the Tesla app. I doubt they will embed it within X.
Tesla has purchased very few companies in its history. They have the software capability to write an app that is superior to Uber in a month. Additionally, it's doubtful that Uber software could be easily integrated into the software running autopilot. Tesla's brand awareness is superior to Uber so I just don't see where there's a fit.
Disruption doesn't have to mean instant domination. That can happen overtime boot strapped by the robotaxi profitable operations.
You forgot to mention that Tesla cars off peak in their robo taxi role can be used for grid stabilization with its vehicle to grid tech plus its HW 3 / 4 computer can be used for AI inference also generating revenue
I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but there will never be Tesla Robotaxis in this dimension of the space time continuum.
You're 100% correct on all counts.
Love your channel!
I agree with your overall sentiment and general business moves. But these are all extreme best case scenarios and somewhat reaching in nature.
Deployment is a totally different matter.
Genius analysis
Uber is about 10x overvalued vs. net income. It should be around $15 billion. There is no significant growth path with Robotaxi for Tesla. The whole global taxi/ride-hailing business is around $250 billion a year.
Tesla robotaxi will reduce the cost of TaaS and cause many new opportunities to occur!
I wudnt even say just Uber what about Lyft or ANY Taxi company lol 😅😂😂😂😂😂😂😂
Tesla's direct competition is not Uber, but Waymo and Baidu.
I don't think Twitter is going to help Elon reach anymore clients than he otherwise would have by just developing an alternative to Uber app.
The most omportan example is Lyft. It could be as good as Uber and possibly cost slightly less, but people say "why do i need two ride-hailing apps" and keep using uber. With X, many - including Uber users - already have it
@@ConnectingODots Your Lyft example is common with whoever wins a category. However, Tesla will essentially be a new category of self-driving ride hailing and the easy category winner. This new category will be superior to the driver version with cheaper costs, no drivers, and an electric fleet. You don’t need to spend $40 Billion on Twitter to make that successful - especially when a huge portion of the world already follows your every move. So, my point is simply that when you own and control a vastly superior category, a button on Twitter will make no difference.
Clearly you never heard of regulations, liability, passengers damaging vehicle, Autopilot is no where near ready to drive on their own, Tesla does not want to be on the hook when someone gets kill which would happen.
Robotaxis is just a stock pump by Elon Musk. Most drivers will not want to have their car get mess up by passenger.
Most of these executives are panicking for no reason.
*RoboTaxis* are first going to be bought by deep-pocketed _Fleet Companies_ (like *Yellow Cab* in *New York.* ) *Uber* and *Lyft* will be the next big purchasers. Then the rare individuals.
*RoboTaxi* is a way to clear some of the *Liability* side of a corporate balance sheet.
Great info . Thanks.
Is fully autonomous self driving a certainty?
Why not
No. It has never been done. But it is constantly improving, each version drives longer without mistakes, fatal mistakes are less and less over time. So if the progress continues it will reach full self driving. At the moment Tesla fsd runs on 4-5 year old hardware (hw3). Maybe it‘s not good enough to excel on this hardware. Maybe the next gen or gen after that is needed to run everythibg smoothly. Maybe training gets you only to 99.9% perfection but you need 99.999. in my opinion it looks like they will solve it over time - but I an not 100% sure, there is still uncertrainty in my opinion. But it will get crazy good to become the best assisting system by far for sure. If it gets us to full autonomy is uncertain. But it looks like it at the moment…
I believe they will, and pretty soon!
Yes, are you suggesting that it won't arrive even by 2100?
@@danielstapler4315 I don't know - by 2100 we may be teleporting ourselves around anyway
Uber has nothing other than app, a well developed app for using other people time and assets/cars from personal gain.
They are dead as we speak.
Tesla has been building this FSD since the beginning.
I own a Tesla with FSD and when the time comes I'll include it in the Robotaxi fleet, and I'll also be happy and excited to use a robotaxi when my car is out, making me money.
One last thing, I don't think Tesla will need to offer free rides, being that the demand for a Robotaxi will be super super! Crazy! Tesla can easily outbid anyone on price.
Thank you for video. 😎🙏
Autonomous driving still requires regulatory approval, Uber is safe for a while.
Did Walmart buy Sears?
Permanent grave yard for the TAXI services world wide, not just UBER/LYFT..
Kinda weird that Taxis are still around? Anyone?
Kind of the opposite. There won't be taxi _drivers,_ but taxi _services_ will be bigger than ever, and there will be other sorts of jobs in the industry to service the increased number of taxis on the road.
We'll see. X is far from an everything app.
How many years are we from self driving cars?
1
Good point
Great analysis.
The cult of Enron Musk knows no bounds lmao
And is Uber a tech company or mear a service company? Much like cleaners or why not Taxi's? They have app, but so does all pizzerias too
should tesla prioritize the cities with lower air pollution but high uber penetration or with higher air pollution but lower uber presence
What if Uber penetrates the air pollution?
Travis Kolonic. Intestinal fortitude.😂
100% Tesla is aiming to destroy Uber.
X marks the spot. Makes sense. And X's payment system can tie into its blue checkmark validation system. Blue Checks could be the subscription/customer validation system. And of course, the front door to games/movies/features you want while traveling to your destination.
X will be so bogged down with features, it'll be unusable. I want my social media app to be separate from my ride hailing app. There is no reason for them to be the same app. It'll just worsen the user experience. The only reason Tesla might do this is because it's gimmicky and it'll let people know Robotaxis are a thing.
This was a thoughtful video ... and got me thinking a bit differently was well. Uber, Lyft, Robotaxis, etc. - all extra and for-profit. ... What about city buses and school buses and other urban (or rural) transportation, much of which is considered a city public service paid for by tax dollars. And of course, parking spaces, lots, above & below ground garages, etc., and all the traffic congestion. The day may come (as it already has in a few places in the world), when ICE vehicles maybe be prohibited in (some parts of) cities and the "Robotaxis fleet operators" may be city personnel and their contractors who would bear all the overhead costs using municipal funds. Ride costs, tickets, passes, etc., would be very cheap; perhaps free for seniors, veterans, school children, people with disabilities, etc. Customers who needed a vehicle (a truck, etc.) for an extended period of time or needed one for a road-trip for business or family or pleasure still might want a personal car or could just be temporarily assigned (or rented) one by the city fleet services. In other words, why not envision Robotaxis simply as a public service, paid for like other (yesterday's) urban transit services.
Brad Templeton laid out many of the changes that would come with autonomous vehicles a long time ago on his Robocars blog. It's a bit dated now but well worth a read.
oh nice. Where tax dollars are used to offer transportation services, they can just pay robotaxi to do it for them at lower cost and better service. Make those tax dollars go farther. Maybe eliminating all their current parking space needs will save more tax dollars as well.
@@alanlight7740Thanks. I will look for that post. I just haven't seen or read much discussion about autonomous taxi service being discussed as a public service just like city buses, transportation infrastures, subways, and sidewalks. They are usually compared to private cars or "cab services."
@@WarrenLacefield - do a search for Brad Templeton robocars and you should find it easily. It's much more detailed than a single post. I'm thinking he started putting it all together about 15 to 20 years ago.
He did discuss comparisons to public transportation, especially in the section titled "The Green Transit Myth". Public transportation did not come out well in the comparison.
Also much about how a decreasing need for parking spaces would affect built environments in positive ways.
Not linking because CZcams handles that badly sometimes.
Sell your uber stock no need for this servive no more soon!
best channel
Excellent breakdown. Things would be coming along nicely if Elon wasn’t endorsing project 2025. I find it hard to believe he has read that thing and agrees with it. And it is an all or nothing situation, don’t get to just choose which parts you like and which you wont
Well, Uber Eats can still deliver pizza. 😂
Two pie are?
First time 1st!
This guy fucked me up with this break down. Everything I have been thinking and more
All perhaps logical, except for a few key points. Those off-lease Teslas have hardware 3, which we know is inadewuate gor full self driving. We know this because hardware level 4 is in the latest cars and hardware 5 is in development.
So first, FSD needs to happen. And happen in rain and snow at night, too. Corporate users of black cars ("hailed" not taxis) rely on them to operate without regard to weather.
And the Cybertaxi would need taxi licenses on every car, currently $500,000 to $1,000,000 per taxi in major cities. It can only avoid the stiff price of taxi medallions by being CyberHail or Cyberlimo, it can't be called a taxi.
And then there's the non-trivial need to have the cyberfleet all wrapped or painted in a uniform scheme, perhaps black like the black cars. And, to retrofit hardware capable of running FSD, which presumably means hardware 5.
Of course, commercial vehicles can't just park on the streets at night, so Tesla will need warehouses chock full of charging stations, to keep their fleet ready overnight. And peons with Windex and vacuum cleaners to keep the insides clean. Any hack driver can tell you that's vital. Washing the outside probably is best done at the same warehouses or lots.
Not an impossible task, but not a cheap or easy one.
I don't agree that "we know" hw3 is inadequate. I have a 2018 M3 with HW3 and it seems to be quite adequate in its progression thus far. Elon has stated that HW3 will be adequate. He also said HW4 and AI5 will achieve greater safety than HW3. So I guess it all comes down to the definition of "adequate". But at this point, the Tesla FSD team are the only ones that know HW3's cameras/inference capabilities. The rest of us can only base it on guesswork and current FSD performance.
"We know hardware3 is inadequate for FSD"
Do we? Really? I don't think so!
Longtime I think the revenue from Robotaxis will be less than most Tesla bulls predict, as the cost for rides will go down a lot over time, but nonetheless it is a huge market and I think Tesla is well positioned to grab a good part of that.
I addressed the revenue part on my previous Robotaxi video. Price will drop, but there will be more rides and besides that also other revenue streams czcams.com/video/98_UKOZBUFE/video.html
Tesla is ten years ahead on FSD!