Rainer Strack: The surprising workforce crisis of 2030 - and how to start solving it now
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- čas přidán 2. 12. 2014
- It sounds counterintuitive, but by 2030, many of the world's largest economies will have more jobs than adult citizens to do those jobs. In this data-filled - and quite charming - talk, human resources expert Rainer Strack suggests that countries ought to look across borders for mobile and willing job seekers. But to do that, they need to start by changing the culture in their businesses.
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Best qoute!
"Send me more of those Germans, they work like machines. 50 years later; Send me more of those machines, they work like Germans!"
Styleth. But the sad part is that I see them as "indoctrinated" to work hard. In 20-30 years we will probably look back thinking; poor them that they had to work/slave like that. But, that's how they were raised...
Great idea
Revisiting this every year.And get convinced more about this prediction every year . Thanks Reiner Strack
Dude!... it's happening. I start school this August for electrical engineering and technology. It's here, fully automated McDonald's.
But now with AI we need to see a new prediction, right?
Great conference, thank you Mr. Strack !
This "shortage" of labor is predicated on the idea that some jobs need people who are "certified" and/or graduated college with some meaningful degree. Of course robots will easily replace all unskilled labor by the year 2030, and artificial intelligence will replace most menial office-type work long before that, so all that's left is engineering, financial analysis, managerial decision making, and the rest is just gambling (trading stocks and bonds). So after all the rich people give all the available jobs to their immediate family, friends, girlfriends, daughters, mistresses, wives, etc. everyone else will be unemployed permanently. This isn't because of a labor shortage, which would realistically mean corporations become incentivized to provide free training/education to any applicant who qualifies (not going to happen so long as the western world continues to constrict education through regulations the way it does), it's because the population wont be "skilled" enough.
Great Talk Thank you
He addressed the very important need to forecast supply and demand of jobs. The government and the private sector do not want to address the problem now. I have been and educator for many decades and both the federal and state governments state that there is a teacher shortage and this is repeated by the media, teacher unions and others. How can there be a shortage when, in teaching (even in STEM), there are 400-500 applicants for every job and I live in the Twin Cities? Why do they promote erroneous information when the hiring situation for teachers is already a negative one. This problem will only get worse.!
Will demand for goods and serices increase per capita to create these new jobs- even as the workforce expires, or would the expiring workforce act to reduce the demand, and thus the need for more jobs. We are all hoping that technological efficiencies will increase leaving many more citizens free to create incomes in more creative ways than these standard jobs.
9 Anos atrás e a aula ainda é é atual como será que está esses números hoje!
I highly doubt that in 2030 there will be more jobs than workers. Most jobs will actually become automated and robots will replace most low end jobs. And the people who work on these robots, will be a much smaller group of people. The only way I can picture there being more jobs in the future than workers is if the movie "IDIOCRACY" comes true and everyone becomes too stupid to perform their jobs. So there may be a lack of skilled workers. That may be a possibility.
1) the second graph is either lazy or purposefully misleading. By fidgeting the scope to a weird base 2 and making the range an equally unnatural 46-38 million range, the scary looking graph appears. If the graph was represented in base 10 it would be invisible. And announcing that the working population will decrease by 4 million out of a working population of 38 million it also doesnt sound scary.
2) German economic reforms of the mid 2000s already broke labor's ability to bargain for their wages. New employees, those hired after 2005 were for the most part shunted into temporary jobs with almost no social benefits that allowed German labor prices to decrease vs the EU average, German domestic consumption -- already anemic due to unification costs of the 90s, shrunk further, causing German industry to go abroad to places like Spain or China to search for further demand.
3) Worldwide we are in a demand deficit, only the Americans are still heroically consuming enough to keep literally the rest of the world employed. Everyone else appears to have decided to export their way out of their respective unemployment crises
4) Back to Germany -- presently the European union is suffering from massive youth unemployment but we arent seeing German industries, supposedly terrified of that super scary 4 million drop -- which in the context of Euro's youth unemployment is itself a drop in the bucket -- hunting for already European-passported and European-educated labor. Instead we are seeing a further push from German employers to undermine their labor's bargaining power via offshoring (which is why an American bought VW or Mercedes is actually bolted together in Mexico)
This talk is disheartening for one of two reasons: either Mr. Strack is purposefully lying here with elaborate but incredibly biased statistics and graphs or Partners at Boston Consulting Group -- one of the most prestigious consulting firms in the world -- are fools.
I will continue to do my duty to buy the world's junk. /s
I think you're focusing on the wrong thing here, namely money. Money is just ink on paper (or bits on a hard drive). If it stops to serve our needs, we can change it at will. Exactly for this reason, talking about the Americans "heroically consuming to keep Europe employed" is just as silly as celebrating an export surplus. If you're exporting more than you import, you're giving away valuable goods, resources and services for specks of ink on paper. You're getting scammed, and you're proud of it.
What you need to focus on is production capacity and resources. As long as there's enough of both to supply our demand of goods, all economic problems are trivial to solve - although they need to get pretty bad before politicians will start questioning our current economic system.
Also, employment is not a good thing for its own sake. Or rather, it only is within the context of our economic system, which is based on premises that were true in the 19th century but started to go out of sync with reality more than 50 years ago. The purpose of economy is not to keep people busy, but to supply people with the goods and services they need (or want).
Really effective speaker!
"We de-averaged them and broke them down into different skill levels, and what we found were even higher shortfalls for high-skilled people and a partial surplus for low-skilled workers. So on top of an overall labor shortage, we will face a big skill mismatch in the future, and this means huge challenges in terms of education, qualification, upskilling for governments and companies." I am not sure which group does he put the PhD graduates ;)
Problem is, that the new high tech sectors can't fill in the gap. Because they aren't as labour intensive as previous displaced sectors within industries and agriculture.
High tech jobs are as labour intensive as nearly any other high skilled job. Also, if I understand correctly, the demand for workforce will not only be in the tech sectors, but in most other as well.
Petar D
Oh? I did not know this. Could you please elaborate?
Many population charts mention a decrease in German population which might account for the deficit workforce in Germany. However, I'm curious to know if the this GDP calculation for the global workforce deficit takes into account of population projections of countries by other agencies and organizations? I'm simply worried if this creation of the new smaller segment of highly skilled "Knowledge Worker" may continue current class disparity trends or perhaps even worsen them.
Couldn't have said it better myself!
It's sad that too few German employers recognise international talent. Only 1% of German employers hire in English: www.immigrantspirit.com/convince-german-employers-hire-speak-german/ At the same time: Only 1/5 of jobs actually need German. In the majority of jobs it's perfectly possible to "start in English, learn the local language on the job."
excellent, comprehensive and, most importantly, positive talk. I can see all these trends already. very insightful, made me think of moving to germany, where hard work may actually be more appreciated
Awesome presentation, is it possible to share more details.of this presentation on email
So... am I the only one that feels like he sounds nearly identical to Doktor from Metal Gear Rising? It must be that wonderful accent.
Even for me as a German native speaker he has a very strong accent.
Nevertheless a nice speech.
Same here!
The only crisis is that industry won't come up with any money to fund future jobs, they want the easy times of oversupply to last forever. In the states we are at a Peak Period for workers to stand aside... 37% NON participation rate. Meanwhile there is an all time high in borrowing for college degrees and education. This does not sound like a crisis it sounds like you don't want the free market to work (now that things are not going your way).
The HR guy tells the automation engineer we are going to need more people... very funny!
The skills gap is caused by the shift in the cost of training from employers to the trainees. The trainees do not have the resources, tools equipment or materials.
The skills gap will close very quickly once the older generation retire or begin to retire. On the job training is the cheapest and most effective method.
The only "fear" I hear of in this is that wages will need to increase to attract workers to countries with a lack of high skilled labor and even in the US so that they don't run away. It also means that education spending has to increase NOW or the skilled workers from other countries won't be something that will continue. The other challenge is that the low skilled majority will continue to make less which will drive down the demand for the things that high skilled labor provide. It will also create unrest and political changes that we cannot begin to imagine. Something similar happened in Germany in the 30's I believe.
He's a world economic forum shill fighting for the 2030 you will own nothing and be happy agenda!
This audio track is very quiet I can barely hear anything even on full volume
These demographic facts are real. I think the result will actually be that growth will slow and our overall quality of life will diminish. Take one slice of the economy as an example - there will be less people to run restaurants, so more demand to go to the ones that remain. This will push up the price of going to those restaurants to the point that many types of places that are generally affordable today will be economically inaccessible in the future. But the question is to whom? If the bulk of the population is hitting retirement, they could be ones at a disadvantage. The wages of the smaller working population will be pushed upward so that workers will still be able to afford the fewer services, but the non-working population will get squeezed out, or half to stay working much longer, both of which are a decrease in living standard (unless you absolutely love your job).
Don't worry about it. Your restaurants will be serving the poor, they'll be the main course....
Watching this lesson in 2021, during the covid-19 pandemic, certainly doesn't cheer anybody up
He's a world economic forum shill fighting for the 2030 you will own nothing and be happy agenda!
2:10 has a truncated y-axis, which is a very bad thing!
A man who has made a god of economic growth and is happy to sacrifice national identity and integrity on its altar.
Audio is super low.Otherwise an interesting talk. I'm a mexican psychology student and I want to live in Germany
***** I honestly prefer boredom to the risk of getting kdnapped by cartels or beaten to a comatose state by the police
Why must we always 'grow' our economy?
Sooo, what about the massive acceleration in automation? Have you taken the trend from, as per your example, 1980? Or did you actually think and check for the last 5-10ish years that automation really took of. What about future technologies, such as functional, safer and cheaper self driving card (which, btw, work, are better than humans and are only held by by road safety laws). What about simple general purpose robots? Report writing bots? What about countries such as Switzerland where they purposefully do not employ automation as to keep people employed?
If you could give a link to the calculations on which your nice little (and wrongly drawn, you didn't include the wiggly line to indicate a startingpoint of 36 million people) graph, we would be able to give better judgement if your talk is even worth our time to look at. Because, honestly, it sounds batshit stupid and very similar to projects my highschool classmates came up with. (That being, over simplified, ignoring variables, looking at countries as individual planets with an infinite supply of stuff outside in addition to treating a person as a statistic, such as assuming the working class can be magically trained to do engineering jobs within 16 years)
Why force people to labor for income? Let's decouple the link between labor and income. Automate as many jobs as can be automated and give people an Unconditional Basic Income. This would finally deal with the unemployment problem forever.
The labor force will be robotic. There will be no labor shortage
AI and robots, prolongued healthy lives in western (or rich or whatever countries) increasing over time. Gene therapies via drugs possibly, or nano technologies capping our parting telomeres, improved other areas of health for the ageing (like stem cell treatments for dimensia). The world is going to be completely inconceivable in 50 years. But we can be sure that since all these projects are being worked on currently and they will be fully more worked on in the future. And we can be sure computers and AI will be huge parts of that.
Now you know why many IT people seem bitter.
More of a proof that somethings got to give.
I forgot where I heard it but its all a battle of hard money vs soft money -- in that sense a "depression" is just honest money. Put another way, producers win, speculators lose. They hate that.
This speaker points out a symptom of a fundemental flaw of our current economic system, and tries fixing the symptom without even addressing that underlying flaw.
Growth is unsustainable..... this is a truism based on the definitions of the words "growth" and "unsustainable". x% annual growth, when x > 0, will always result in the # of resources in use by the economy following an expodential curve approaching ∞. Rate of resource consumption can be reduced by increasing recycling and effiency but since you can not possible exceed 100% effiency or 100% recycling of materials without breaking the conservation of mass and energy, increased recycling and effiencies can only temperoraly stall the increase in resource consumption that constant growth demands. Either economic growth must stop or the human race will consume the Earth, and whatever other planets we may come to settle on, to the point that it is no longer able to support human life. This is not an argument fueled by enviromentalism, biology or economics, but by math and a little bit of physics (conservation of mass and energy). Growth is not sustainable in a finte world. This is mathmatically certain.
If you're an environmentalist, our economic model that says that constant growth is needed to maintain economic and social stability is the single greatest threat to the enviroment... atleast if you want social and economic stability.
Which leaves the question of "why does stability depend on growth?". I don't know the answer to this question for certain, but I suspect it has to do with 'our' monetary policy.
The monetary policy of the Federal Reserve in the U.S. and that of most (if not all) other Central Banks is to lend money into existence and that money is lent with interest. The money being lent is created on demand and represents little to no opportunity cost for the issuer so the interest should only cover the risk of default, but the interest rates are often much higher than the default risk and that difference is the wealth that is being extracted from the real economy and put into the hands of whoever owns the Central Banks. BUT even if the money represented real opportunity cost, this mometary system would STILL extract wealth from the real economy and concentrate it into the hands of a few.
I suspect (I do not know, I can give no argument or evidence connecting one to the other, but it is my very strong suspision) that it is this constant extraction of wealth from the real economy that requires the vast majority to constantly grow the economy to keep a stable economy and society.
A German with a sense of humour! :D
Basic Income is needed.
Bruno Nuñez I keep hearing people say this but i don't see it happening, especially not in the U.S.
hoosh
Universal basic income is a far better system than any and every other conditional form of welfare that exists. It doesn't motivate negative behavior, incurs less waste and abuse and empowers people to be frugal and decide what they do with their money. Also it can solve hunger rather instantly, as well as significantly reduce homelessness.
hoosh In Spain we are near to achieve it.
Jeremy K interesting
so all the lazy people can live of the working ones
How about we let the market worry about crossing bridges as it comes to it? There is no way to plan for an economy 15 years in the future, it is simply impossible to predict exactly how things will turn out.
Impossible to be exact? Yes. Worth being close? Absofuckinglutely.
MrLgmhandler There are more pressing matters to deal with in today's economy than ones in the distant future.
HamsterPants522 It isn't an either or proposition. Contrary to many people's beliefs, society can multitask.
HamsterPants522 You mean those pressing matters in today's economy that have seeds in the decades prior? This isn't an either/or choice here.
HamsterPants522 Have you watched the talk? It's NOT the distant future, it starts today. Also nearly everything a government can do takes time, a lot of time and ot's always worth to start first with these kind of things. The US is the topmost country people wanna work for for a reason! Countries need to educate their people that immigration is a good an neccessary thing, that will take a lot of time, far right wing parties are getting more and more power in nearly every country because of the fear of cultural change right now and it's going to be worse if we don't do something against that.
Come to Silicon Valley talented Germans, not only will you have a great paying job but you'll have the time of your life. Sipping the best wines in the world in Napa up North or enjoying the city life in San Francisco with beautiful views or the beaches of Santa Cruz or a nice drive down south to L.A. and the great warm beaches out there.
That list at 10:09 fits perfectly with what the great Robert Noyce established in that region.
There is not or never has been a labour shortage, what there is however is a lack of willingness to pay people in Perseved LOWER jobs to be paid a fair and good wage. If the wages for jobs that keep the country running such as waste disposal (bin men) were fair for the horrible job they have to do, there would be no need to import cheap labour.
Open up the borders to all of Europe and make Germany *"the"* place to compete and enjoy. All the cultural norms you're so use to will have to be sacrificed some what. Boost up the Universities to grab the best the world or specifically Europe can offer. But all of this will be difficult because UK is arleady ahead in that. Also, get the Asians, that will be tough as is already since the Pac-12 universities in US arleady grabbing the best of em'. So it's goign to be very tough for Germany.
4EverDubin "Get the Asians" lol.....can you explain what you mean by that? And why only Asians? I've met really skilled South Americans and Arabs.
hoosh Yes but that region with the Indians and Koreans is just a larger pool to draw huge talents from. If you look at Silicon Valley for example with Universities like Stanford and Berkeley, they recruit a ton of their talent from there and the best of them. So there is just more sure talent there than the regions you mentioned.
the audio is horrible.
i don't think this will be the problem, automation is covering ground qiuckly and is just a matter of years where the repetitive jobs will be replaced by robots in the next 0 years i see robots becoming a big part of our life, when they will get handy inaf i think almost all the low end jobs will be replaced
The speaker completely left off the most important half of the equation here. Where is this GDP growth going to come from with a leveling and the subsequent declining of the world population. Remember your income is my spending and as the amount of humans on this planet levels off it will be increasingly harder to have GDP growth. Purchasing Power is already not really growing in developed nations so as the populations level off and decline where are these GDP increases going to come from?
Salary is only number 8 in the job preferences chart? That's funny, cuz when it comes to their jobs all I ever hear people talking about is how much they're making or want to make.
I think that list only applies to skilled laborers. People whom have a base salary that already covers food, shelter and basic cultural luxuries such as internet and vacations. In other words all that list means is that when people aren't worried about paying their bills they stop prioritizing money as an incentive to work somewhere.
It's for skilled workers willing to work abroad, getting a way better job abroad is more attractive than getting a way better paid job abroad if you already have enough money. Normal people aren't that greedy.
Salary is only really an issue for laborers. The people who are educated in technology and sciences are easily making 75k+, the mark for money no longer contributing to happiness. The difference between making $120,000 a year and doing a job you like less but making $150,000 is not as big as someone who makes $35k and needs a job making $45,000.
In 15 years, there will be more robotic automation, better food production, and more people stuck in VR lands. Doubt this is a real concern.
Just wating to 2030s, maybe I get GOOD job somewhere around there ;)
Why is it so goddamn hard for TED to mic its speakers so as not to capture all the lip smacking?
We need to outsource all lipsmacking.
Very true. Salary is one of the least attraction for employees and Appreciation is the most important factor.
Fine, be satisfied with your pay cut.
Automation will more than fill the gap.
Growth will fall and demand will fall in developed countries as fewer and fewer people are born.
It's the chicken and the egg - and I believe this guys has it backwards.
We don't need more people to sustain growth - we needed the growth to sustain more people. There isn't room for infinite growth on this planet.
How to challenge the coming workforce crisis.
I begin to think every german sounds like a crazy scientist lol.
Is this a joke? More jobs than people at the rate we are growing? We need to be worried about having basic resources for the billions of new people being born each decade. This is insane.
So you reeducate and acquire new skills, then you find out there aren't any vacant places in the area you educated, so you have to take any filthy job available and reeducate again. And I think micro-college are bullshit. You still have to learn a lot, and the older one gets the harder/slower he learns.
His calculation and numbers are way off. He does not account for countries in Africa and South American catching up that will begin to produce car and electronics, rather than import from abroad. This process has starting to begin. He also does not account for demand efficiency that will increase significantly.
cointelpro123 Hmmm I don't see that happening since the west and Asians will want control of the resources in Africa. Keeping Africa in it's current state is in our best interest tbh. As for South America you are right.
Qui vivra verra
10:39 if people are moving to MURICA for those top four motivators.... I can't type for laughing! NONE of those things are available here, in my limited experience. Whee! Also, any media that has to do with labor, labor relations, wages, skills shortage.... as far as I can tell is a special kind of nonsense, OR represents conditions in a part of the world I have never seen or visited or known any residents of.
10:20 He is skewing the data with his bias. The data clearly says "good" but he reports it as "great" which is a higher level than good. THUMBS DOWN. This is the type of analyst who will look at climate data and tell you one thing even though the data clearly says something else.
Then you realize that the migrants they thought will help dont qork at all and make things a lot worse.
If you get many more women in the workplace isn’t that going to contribute to the decrease of future workforce???
automation revolution..
In an effort to thwart Germany's impending doom I say we all go to Berlin and partake in the worlds biggest orgy.
we need ww3 better than die from hunger
Ill take the population decline with its minor problems over all the major issues caused by the huge population increase we have now. This guys problems are only going to be big problems for rich people.
USA...USA :)
Ludicrous.
migration and getting even more/all women into working is the WORST advice you can give.
These things both only help short term and worsen the situation in the long run heavily.
Nevertheless, great conference
He's a world economic forum shill fighting for the 2030 you will own nothing and be happy agenda!
@@clairewhite5789 Klaus Schwab will be happy then
Mouth dry much?
j'ai pas aime son vieil accent la
He lost me at "I have been a consultant for 20 years...."
Might as well be wearing a t-shirt that says "I get paid too much to maintain the pro-business status quo"
The largest problem with the World at the moment is the Obsession with humans for Growth. We should be concentrating on Downsizing.
Awesome presentation, is it possible to share more details.of this presentation on email
The only "fear" I hear of in this is that wages will need to increase to attract workers to countries with a lack of high skilled labor and even in the US so that they don't run away. It also means that education spending has to increase NOW or the skilled workers from other countries won't be something that will continue. The other challenge is that the low skilled majority will continue to make less which will drive down the demand for the things that high skilled labor provide. It will also create unrest and political changes that we cannot begin to imagine. Something similar happened in Germany in the 30's I believe.
Awesome presentation, is it possible to share more details.of this presentation on email
He's a world economic forum shill fighting for the 2030 you will own nothing and be happy agenda!