Should you Invest in LEGO during an Economic Recession?
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- čas přidán 12. 07. 2024
- Should you invest in LEGO during an Economic Recession? In this video I dive into all the factors that affect LEGO investing during uncertain economic times.
I'll spend time looking back at the history of LEGO investing during the most recent economic recession and how those sets were affected as investments.
My goal from this video is to give you clarity into the stability of LEGO investing during an economic recession or economic crisis. If you are interested in other videos related to LEGO investing feel free to subscribe to my channel and engage in the comments below.
Time Codes
0:00 - Understanding our current economic state
2:16 - Looking at the Disney Castle
7:04 - A look back at the recession of 2007
11:36 - So should you invest in LEGO today?
15:36 - Outro
#LEGO #LegoInvesting #Investing
If you have the money to do it go for it. The recession won't last forever, and you may see amazing deals from retailers slashing things way down. Once it ends people will spend money again and they will have missed out on the sets you have. Not rocket science. Also never put all your eggs into one basket, diversify your investments.
100% agree with everything you said Eliot thanks!
@@JakesBricks Also Jake, you need to take into account inflation. Buying Disney Castle for $350 in 2018, means to make a profit in 2023 you would have to sell it for over $421, the value of 2018's $350, in today's value. The good thing about Lego, its not in the bubble that other industries are like, vacation rentals, housing, vehicles, and these banks who overedged on bonds. A lot of it is tied to nostalgia and only growing in popularity.
That about covers it! Although, it seems risky to put all your eggs into that one diversity basket. :)
Invest with the expectation that the outcome will fund your Lego hobby. Don’t invest if you think it’s going to help your retirement. You also need to look and see how much storage you have. If you fill a room full of Lego to sit on for 10 years, there is a direct annual storage cost that can be calculated. On average a room is 200 per square foot. If you are renting you are paying monthly for that storage. Of you have a mortgage, that space is factored in into the monthly mortgage. I would take the cost of space, inflation, and purchase price and use those as a deduction, find the break even point per set and units of the set you intend to buy. This will give you an idea of where your real profit margin starts and then you can realistically see what to kind of ballpark a realistic return on investment. Keep in mind in a recession, the buying power of the dollar decreases dramatically, ie 100 today could only have the buying power of 50 in the near future, and prices are sticky.
Couldn’t agree more 👍🏼
Always with the unique content. Thanks for the info
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Great video as ever Jake. Over here in the UK it’s just as bad if you follow the news regards economic decline, but I’m trying to stay positive which is exactly what your video represents. Like a previous comment mentioned, if you have the available funds, then do so … as like you mentioned, a lot of the new investors into Lego will dip out of it in these current times. Keep up the good work my friend!!
Hey Lee! Thanks my friend! Love the stay positive mindset! The news loves to make it feel like the sky is falling
@@JakesBricks Exactly that, the news always wants to make things worse than what they are!! I made a lot of golden rules when it comes to finances after the 2008 crash!! I only leave enough money in bank accounts to pay the bills, as I never want to lose money again through things out of my control. And I invest in hard products, like Lego … if you can’t hold it, you don’t own it!!
Beautifully articulated. I’m committed to enjoying the collection hobby for my well-being. I’d go without other luxuries to prevent having to buy my favourite sets at 3x the price in the future.
Great video. How did you keep my attention - genius.
Oh ya Jai! LEGO is probably my last luxury to go... but if it comes to it I'd have to let it go
Always enjoy your videos my friend. Certainly will continue to invest as my revenue permits. Cheers and hopes for future gains for all us Lego investors
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Love your content! Please don’t stop recording these!!
💪💪 thx!!! Appreciate the feedback
Great thoughts and insight as always!
BQ! Thanks brother! Hope you are doing well
In Europe you could already see the effects of a crisis. Last winter i saw more old rare castle and pirate sets on the market than i ever have for lower prices than usual. Been cherry picking some of the nicest :)
Brilliant idea! Those ultra rare sets are certainly taking a hit for sure!
Great video as always. When I was living paycheck to paycheck and lost my job, I ended up selling part of my collection, not at a loss, but just to make ends meet. I did a lot of other things to cut living expenses, so I wasn't able to funnel as much cash into sets during that time. Selling an older retired set has typically a better ROI -- as well as the price point it was released at... when times are lean, its the more expensive sets that collectors want later.
That makes a ton of sense! Thanks for sharing your story Michael!
Great stuff - you speak truth!
Thanks Steven!
Love your take here. I’d definitely go more in during a recession or crisis. Being debt free really helps and I’ve been sure to build up heavy savings, since I experienced navigating the Great Recession just after graduating from college. LEGO and stocks are good buy lows during a time of economic crisis because as we know it’s not forever no matter how gloomy it looks at the time.
True true! Were you investing in LEGO back in ‘08?
@@JakesBricks No, I wish. Didn't have the discretionary or disposable income at the time.
New subscriber here, been binging your channel all week! If you feel secure in your finances, now is the time to invest imo. There are going to be more sales than usual because of the economy, and if/when the economy gets a bit better, the retired sets will be sought after for a premium price by collectors.
100000% Hope my content has helped! Thanks for the support!
Hey Jake - great content - as always! Any thoughts on whether or not the new ‘Disney Castle’ being released letter this year will be a re-release or something entirely new? Just wondering how that might affect the value…
I have heard rumors about that! But since we are in disneys 100 years I haven’t found any leaked images or further intel. If it does happen and they do an exact remake the value of this one will tank. But if they release a new or different one the value shouldn’t be affected to bad
@@JakesBricks I picked this set up as an investment and have been a little nervous with the rumors that it will be the Disneyland Castle thus having an impact on the performance! Hope you are right! 🙂
Great content
Thanks Tony!
Hey Jake, love the content! What are your thoughts on the Disney castle now that it appears Lego is either putting out a new version OR adding a few pieces/mini figures and releasing it again? Are you selling yours now or still holding longer for a larger ROI?
Thanks!
Hmmm tbh I’m still not sure! I’d it’s a shot for shot remake that will limit the potential of the old one. But we will have to see what the new one looks like
#remindmebot: March 23rd, 2026 -I look forward to that video. 🎉🎉🎉
TFF I expect you to comment on this video on March 23rd 2026 so I remember hahahaha!
Great video. Seems like the answer is yes, invest in Lego if you have the means to do so. Would you be into doing a follow up of HOW to invest in Lego during an economic recession? Appreciate the content. Thanks!
The follow will be my top 10 sets to invest in for 2023 coming soon
@@JakesBricks Looking forward to your top 10 sets to invest in 2023 video!
Hi Jake, when investing in a set do you also buy one for yourself to open? 🤔 Thanks for the vids btw, really great channel, very inspiring 👍
I don’t usually. Only sets that I like. Specifically UCS Star Wars. and icons/Technic cars
Long time no see ;)
See time no long?
Yeah, right 15 years on shelf is crazy long term for me 😁 I would add, according to Lego 2022 report that they will open 2 new factory and raise production potential i 3 others. So there will be more Lego and less problems with supply globally. They invest hard 😂
WAAAAY too long for sure! I think LEGO will ramp up production but they could end up over producing... time will tell
Same as advice as always, invest in LEGO when the economy is in the shits, sell LEGO when the economy is strong. Elementary concept.
Elementary my dear Awesome 😉
My problem is I want to build them all 😂. Having said this, I have only just jumped back into LEGO and still have unopened Green Grocer and Fire Brigade sets waiting, so perhaps I should save them as investments.
You should honestly sell them now and if you want them buy them used and make like $1000! Those are great sets!
Jake, fantastic co tent as always. Really gives food for thought to anybody wanting to invest at any level. As an educator, I am lucky enough to have decent job stability, so I hope to continue to invest carefully through 2023 and see what happens. I assume that, along with a recession, there is a chance of seeing better sales and deals and stores try to clear out their inventory. Do you have any knowledge to share about how a recession might affect discounts? Thanks as always for sharing your thoughts.
I’lo have to investigate this further! Not sure of exact specifics but I would imagine we could see significant sales and clearance in sets of a recession continues for a while
As someone who is graduating high school this may and doesn’t have any major responsibilities such as a wife, kids, and a home, I see this as a HUGE opportunity for me to make absolute bank. Will try to stay focused and disciplined in where that money goes but I believe there can be serious RAI for me in the coming year or so
Hope so! Do your research. Don’t spend cash you don’t have. Be prepared to hold your sets 1-3 years
I watched another video that made a good point that during the last recession Lego did not follow the same shelf length standard for retirement. Sets were sold for a longer period due to the cost to Lego to produce new sets and the lack of immediate sales on those sets
Interesting… great to know!
Hi Jake,
Great content but I have to ask how you got those tans lines in the video?
BTW you look much better not wearing a backward hat. More professional.
Backwards hat is Limp Bizkit-ish.
Tan lines? I didn’t even notice… but I was in florida two weeks ago 🤷♂️. And yes it’s rare that I take off the hat but I do it periodically but I would take limp bizkit as a compliment 🤣
Very good topic these days. You are right - if there is a major crisis at some point - very few people will invest their money in lego at that time - but that would mean a huge appreciation in the future - as few people will hold few copies of sets from the historical (great crisis) period. For example, I invest only in unique sets (which, in my opinion, Lego will never repeat) - with such sets, you can easily sit on it for 10-20 years, plus they should be valued very quickly even in the short term. I will list, for example, an exceptional set that I would easily go all in this year (if it were discontinued this year) - Blacksmith Medieval (a unique piece, a unique price of 130 USD and a unique - historical time of release of the set). Or if the 21333 were phased out by 4Q 2024 - that would be another set I would go into in large volume (plus if there was a deep recession) - no one would want it.
Love these thoughts!! Thx for sharing!
Retired and economic failure is a winning situation for me. I will be buying my usual Lego. I haven’t felt the pinch yet.
AGREED! Hopefully I won't either.
I have seen a massive slow down in lego sales already, at least in person sales. Before i was selling like 5+ Vader castles a week, now its every so often.
Hmmm great to know and thx for the intel
I have some sets from the mid to late 90s by Model Team that are new and still factory sealed.
Hugh!? That’s crazy!!! Any interest in selling?
@@JakesBricks The last time i checked, one of them was worth between £900 to £1,200. I maybe interested for the right price.
@@Hugh248 fair prices! I am in the US. So shipping would probably be the killer! Incredible sets my friend!
@@JakesBricks Yeah i know your in the US, for me to ship something that size to the US would be £45 minimum. Why are you interested in buying depending on the price?
Where you at Jake? Need some more videos. Maybe a preview of sets thought to retire at end of 2023
Yes coming soon!!!
If you can afford to hold sets longer term I think you might see some really good deals and prices in purchasing sets, but you might need to hold 4 years instead of 2 to get the same returns. Opportunity knocks for the brave..
Agreed longer holds maybe more common in this season of investing
How long does it take to be compensated by Rakuten for a Lego purchase? I’ve been waiting for almost two months.
Hmmm shouldn’t take that long? But it does take three months at a time to get your cash back deposited into your account
We have drumbeats of bad news and IMO we are already in recession. It is all about confidence. Agreed we can't sacrifice family financial status for luxuries (like Lego)
True we are definitely in a recession the question now is how long will it last and how bad will it get
10:26 throw in the closet…time flies
TRUTH!
If you liquidate your inventory at a minor price you don't have any set anymore. So you're screwed. So find other revenues and don't sell and if impossible it's over, period.
Besides, an object is only worth what people want to pay for it. Nice on paper to have a 1200 bucks listed set that does not sell.
Very true! But I will never sacrifice the safety and stability of my family to keep my LEGO investments. I would certainly try and pursue other income streams first but if all else fails its bye bye LEGO
I keep waiting for the recession. I think 4q 2023 is going to be rough and we will see a lot of discounts. Recovery should happen quickly when the Fed drops rates late 24.
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Professional lowballers unite
Huzzzzah!
I am less concerned about a recession and more concerned that Disney has been destroying their best brands.....
Like Star Wars??
@@JakesBricks Seems like it. Marvel isn't doing so great either...
Let’s go Brandon
Economic stability has fallen under both democratic and republican presidents. There truly is no rhyme or reason.
@@JakesBricks Sure
@Jake’s Bricks I can absolutely understand you’re wanting to be impartial and respectful to your audience but this recession we’re in definitely has something to do with the current administration in office. OP just went about it the wrong way.
@@RittenhousesRifle I should have been more harsh and said that the 2008 recession he mentioned had to do with Obama's bank bailouts which is what Biden just did, as well as more unending war, and trillions printed
All investing follows one basic rule that you should NEVER break for ANY reason, EVER: Don't put anything in that you are not willing to lose.
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Disagree
Explain more I would love your thoughts
I still don't understand why you would share all this information. My top 10 investment picks for 2023... ? I'm not telling anyone..
I just love helping others fund their building hobby like myself. And until LEGO investing stops working I'll keep sharing
@@JakesBricks you don’t feel like your helping it to stop working? Or even hurting your own business? There’s so many people trying to make easy money with lego nowadays beceause of youtube channels like this.