Thinking in Bets | Annie Duke | Talks at Google
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- čas přidán 20. 06. 2018
- Annie Duke has leveraged her expertise in the science of smart decision making to excel at pursuits as varied as championship poker to public speaking. Annie recently released her latest book “Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don’t Have All the Facts.” In this book, Annie reveals to readers the lessons she regularly shares with her corporate audiences, which have been cultivated by combining her academic studies in cognitive psychology with real-life decision making experiences at the poker table.
For two decades, Annie was one of the top poker players in the world. In 2004, she bested a field of 234 players to win her first World Series of Poker (WSOP) bracelet. The same year, she triumphed in the $2 million winner-take-all, invitation-only WSOP Tournament of Champions. In 2010, she won the prestigious NBC National Heads-Up Poker Championship. Prior to becoming a professional poker player, Annie was awarded a National Science Foundation Fellowship to study Cognitive Psychology at the University of Pennsylvania.
Moderated by Jordan Thibodeau.
Get the book: goo.gl/dtTdaH
My Notes:
> we are built to affirm the things that we already feel right
> Confirmation Bias - we notice the things that confirms our believes and not notice the things that does not confirm our beliefs
> Motivated Reasoning - we are motivated to confirm the beliefs we have, and that drives our information processing
> Echo Chambers - if you get info that disagrees with you, then u think they are coming from untrusted sources. This triggers motivated reasoning.
> Whenever we are certain about a topic, just imagine your friend asking this. "Are you willing to bet ?"
This moves your thought from certanity into probabilistic thinking.
With this mindset, now you have to :
- think about what the other person knows that you dont
- how many new things can happen before the happening of event that you are betting
- be open-minded to why we might be wrong, because we already know why we may be right.
- become information hungry
- open minded to beliefs that does not confirm with ours.
> The result does't make it a bad decision.
Exercise : just think, if it had gone right the way you want, how strongly would you call that a "right" decision.
>There are only 2 things:
Luck and quality of decisions.
we cant control luck, so lets focus and control the quality of decisions.
> Strategy 1 : deconstruct all possible outcomes and asisgn probabilities before the outcome actually occurs.
> Strategy 2: If the outcome has already occured, then tell this decision story to a friend without telling him the end result. Or tell the decision story to 2 friends, to one tell the outcome went right. to the other tell the outcome went against you. Get the analysis from both of them and analyse them.
(these processes takes away lot of bias on the result)
> Not making a decision is a decision.
We need to frequently analyse the status quo and remind ourselves that we are really making a decision by staying there. We usually think we make decisions only when we change the status quo, which is wrong.
> Betting need not be always on money. we bet on our time, energy etc.
> Move from "reasoning to be right" to "resasoning to be accuracte"
- when you lose something, you call it as bad luck and then you tell this to someone offloading your negative emotions. there is no value gained out of it. you are trying to prove yourself right and blame it on to the luck. This is reasoning to be right.
- Instead, talk about your strategies, talk about the quality of decisions that you made. and analyse the outcome. Now you are reasoning to be accurate. you are willing to learn something from it.
thanks for this
Thank you for the a good summary!
Loved it ...
Thanks 😍
Thanks Dingu! You're the MVP!
This is solid thanks for laying this out .📝✅🥂
Ten minutes through and hooked! Busy reading the book and as a trader finding much value here. Every trade is a bet and a bet is a decision about an uncertain future; no matter how smart you think your "system" is. This kind of thinking helps to take and get over losses very quickly.
WOW. Wow. The richness and depth of information given is extraordinary. And perfect delivery, very little noise to signal. Thank you!
She is so humble and open minded a real Champ!
How can you say this about a known cheater? Look up the free documentary on youtube called "ultimate beat" tells the story of how her and friends on Ultimate Bet cheated high stakes players out of tens of millions.
@@user-yf8il6we2z I did not know that fact about her thank you for sharing this..
‘Keep your believe to yourself when you seek advice from others.. else you ruin the whole purpose’ so much to learn from her meticulously written book
You know what I love about Annie Duke? EVERYTHING! One of the most intelligent, interesting, and incredible women all of time. And she's hot, too!
1:09:56 "everything is quantifiable" ... suggest to read the book "How to Measure Anything"
Annie knows her subject and is a natural communicator .. Not many of us are unbiased enough to make rewarding decisions time after time ..
Just finished her book - really good
Absolutely love this talk. There seems to be a cultural obsession with positivity, being correct vs accurate, and the goal of happiness at the expense of REALITY. Thanks for sharing!
What an interesting way of looking at decision making. I can see how this really could easily be applied to all areas of life. Thank you for the talk.
Thank you
So much information to unpack, even after second listen so much more. We are wired for decision bias - which goes on beneath conscious awareness and the challenge is to uncover and bring these tendencies into awareness - these tidbits from Ms. Annie help allot. Thank you!
have you read any Nassim Taleb and fragility? Some her ideas cross over with his, which is great!
@@deal2live anti fragile ? Agree
Hate to pick your brain but does the talk summarize a lot of what’s in the book?
For a fun exercise, listen to the talk first then go through the comments to read people's complaints about Annie. Consider the probability that they're justified and whether it changes what you thought of the video.
This was a great talk, Annie! Thank you for helping me think more in probabilities. I am at the point in my stock trading career where I need to do a better job analyzing the data to better the outcomes. Your procedures will be invaluable!
The audio needs a volume boost and leveling for the interviewer's whispers
This is brilliant. I'll definitely take a look at that book.
I love it, it is a good talk and discussion
This is amazing information.....great stuff
HUGE FAN. Loved her talk on The Science of Success podcast too!
She stole millions of dollars
@@AinsleyHarriott1 how did she do that?
@@amylee9 Man, people forget so fast. Look into her brother and her.
47:43 a phenomenal start to a group charter!
cheater u mean ?
This perspective is crucial and a game changer i will definitely apply this trading
Amazing!
Wow this incredible
20:30 From certainty to probabilistic thinking.
Great talk. Thanks for sharing. Enjoyed the book as well!
Wow. How can you say this about a known cheater? Look up the free documentary on youtube called "ultimate beat" tells the story of how her and friends on Ultimate Bet cheated high stakes players out of tens of millions.
Wow. How can you say this about a known cheater? Look up the free documentary on youtube called "ultimate beat" tells the story of how her and friends on Ultimate Bet cheated high stakes players out of tens of millions.
brilliant>>
***Hint Hint get out a paper and pencil to write down some 📝 notes. Brilliant interview
Great stuff but I am conflicted in the Pete Carrol decision analysis. The analysis Annie uses does not factor in the fact the ball was on the 1 yard line a very important factor. It is crucial data in this decision making process.
In the Superbowl, the DB that intercepted recognized the play so it wasn't luck that he did what he did.
Excellent narrative by the author. The interviewer could have done a much better job though...
So do we have freewill or not?
What is that decal on the desk? Naughty!
You're a poker player! A poker player.
I appreciate Annie Duke and the things I've learned from her. I wish she was more accessible and responsive to her fans. I'd love to ask her questions.
Are you a fan of how she cheated all the high stakes players on Ultimate Bet out of tens of millions?
@@user-yf8il6we2z She didn't. You are lying.
@@xranger707 Go watch the documentary on youtube called "Ultimate Beat" it's free. Plenty of undeniable evidence.
@@user-yf8il6we2z OK I will.
@@xranger707 After you watch it, let me know if you still feel the same.
#sourd #vainajugu
Real life Wendy Rhoades.
Hamish Maciver 🤣🤣
Ugh...painful to watch this guy introduce her...
It only gets worse once the con artist, Annie starts speaking
Do you think Eric Seidel flopped on Annie?
Like the Monty Hall problem, you should switch lines at a grocery store
For me its guilt and how it will effect others thats why i cantmake good decisions.
1:09:08
Overall this is great content but the analysis on Pete Carroll's call in the superbowl has some holes. Clearly not researched thoroughly.
Carroll used and called that play throughout the year and practised it as well. The Patriots and Butler spent specific moments in Practice defending it. That's how Butler got the jump.
Trying to find the source here - there was a report and video released shortly after the game but can't find it.
Also, in micro economic theory - once u select a line and u start to notice that it isnt moving - what are u supposed to do? The answer is to stay in that line and it is bc as u shift over to the other line there's one less person in their line u were in and one more in the line that u shifted to, so youre line is shorter and your new line is now longer.
And there's likely others doing the same thing
Now the question I had in this scenario allays was it only matters what's happening in front of you so let's say your line has 3 people ahead of you but the other one has 2 ahead of you - you should switch. The reason for this though is bc nobody else can cut in front of you in a grocery line so your decision in the grocery line is different than if you're on the road changing lanes through traffic.
Epistemic bubbles vs echo chambers. Interesting!
@53@1:09:00
Umm isn’t she a cheat?
Not all probabilities are equal: 50% chance is total ignorance. In such cases decision quality seems irrelevant and a cost. So comparisons with pure chance outcomes are misleading. When outcomes are not pure chance then focusing only on the decision making process does not suffice. Cool talk otherwise from somebody that walked the line :-)
Fuck me..... this chick can talk for dayyyyyyyyyyyyyzzzz
If Mark Douglas had a daughter
stoicism?
Hard to believe. If they only knew. It kind of brings into focus the credibility of these events, doesn’t it?
Annie is a cheater. Look her up on the Ultimate Bet scandal. I was never reimbursed on the cheating poker site even after Paul Leggett chief of security said I was cheated.
"Sort of"
This guys whispering questions is so annoying.
Anyone else think so?
The Google Whisperer
Wow that was a was a bad intro, my 10 year old daughter could have done better, but she is a pretty good reader. I hope she just as smart as Annie when she is older
Those who can't compete, teach.
41 people refused to learn😂
The 👎s are because she cheated her fellow players out of millions of dollars
@@abcdefg54321x "cheated"....lol
she is a Cheater
Can she apply this police killing of people by ethnicity?
Can she apply to racial/gender/sexuality disparity?
Has she gone to jail? For that ultimate bet scandal… hopefully her fees go back to those defrauded