Doug Casey on Donahue 3 Nov 1980 - Just as Relevant TODAY as it was 38 Years ago
Vložit
- čas přidán 16. 07. 2018
- Doug Casey's book, "Crisis Investing" was the best selling book in America in 1980. Donahue had him on as a guest talking about his book, finances and sovereignty, among other topics. And completely relevant TODAY in 2018.
Video courtesy of: The Dollar Vigilante channel
03:00
"I list Unemployment as Unemployed plus those employed by the government"
Yep. Brilliant.
Bwhahahahahahaaaaaaaaaaaaa !!!
I'm 52 and grew up with these shows on the 12 stations we had on the ole' TV. I don't remember this specifically, but what strikes me is this was ON day-time TV. It's amazing how far we've fallen in our national intellect and a willingness to debate the important things that impact us all. It's truly disturbing how bad it's become 2 generations later ... our children have no chance.
In the past, I would never say this "I miss Phil Donahue".
That was amazing!!!! America has fallen a lot since then. They actually had real conversations back then.
The audience was articulate and asked intelligent questions...yes, America is too dumbed down for any public discussion even close to this
@@ItsAMathThing I found it refreshing to see that Americans were about just stupid as they are today, perhaps a little more ignorant and a little less propagandized.
Excellent observation and so true! We wouldn't see that kind of dialogue today. Sad
There was a huge recession in 1982, lots of people lost their houses and businesses. Doug called that one and profited gravely.
He ran rings around the presenter/interviewer hahaha. Look at the smiles while they made digs at each other. No one having meltdowns or getting triggered lol. Brilliant!
Very trippy hearing that familiar voice coming out of that young head!
The fact that this has under 1000 views says it all. Few realize reality.
actually the earlier video had tens of 1000's of views but still your point stands..
if it had millions we'd be far better off. amazing how relevant it is to todays situation.
You nailed it??!! Just like then, just like now. (99% of society was gossiping about sports, Hollywood scandals, and celebrity marriage breakups)
Doug is the best wise and passionate uncle I've never had.
Host is being a d*** but Doug is rock Solid!!!
He's a self-admitted solipsist - you are just an actor in his play, not even real.
Doug is a great modern philosopher and very generous with his ideas and guidance.
Watching this gem in 2023. Wow?!
I love this video... "we must take responsibility for ourselves."
Doug was 40 years early... God Bless Him
When you’re right you’re right. It’s never too early.
lady: "I just bought silver for $22. When will I make a profit" Doug - "well you might have to wait 50 years." He got that right.
Man, what a great discussion--Casey is awesome! Between this and the episode with Milton Friedman, I give credit to Donahue for hosting these guests. And Props to the woman calling in at 24 minutes! And thanks to Doug Casey, kicking ass for 4 years!!!
Thank you for bringing it up. I'll watch Friedman after this. I was 7 when this came out.
the full credit should go to the guests - Casey & Friedman. Donahue was very biased and looked to play the Republican vs Democrat play vs a more open minded Libertarian point of view. R vs D is a diversion. Society benefits from economic freedman and the liberties that go with that form of limited governance. Very happy we were blessed with very open minded intelligent thinkers like Casey & Friedman.
Super cool to hear a young Doug Casey 😁
At 23:00 that guy talks about getting a trunk full of groceries for one ounce of gold (valued at $20). Great comment--today (Oct 2020) $20 gets you a few cupcakes and bottled water. One ounce of gold is $2,000, give or take, and you could buy a few trunks of groceries.
Absolute true! Why nobody gives you thumbs up? Yes, today one oz gold will buy you a truck load of groceries and some.
Nah, man. Dude's point was that gold doesn't appreciate, it holds its value. Sometimes that's what you really want. Other times, perhaps there are better investments.
Wow neat seeing Doug so young
Its been 42 years since this interview and gold has still not hit the $3600 target price that Doug Casie spoke off during this interview! LOL
That's true, but you've got to look at the level of intervention central banks have done over the last 40+ years of falling interest rates. It has fostered a risk-on environment in equities while at the same time large institutions such as JPMorgan ( who also has been fined many times for this) have an incentive to suppress the price of real money. The comex also drops millions of fake paper onto the market to suppress the price. At the same time all of this has been going on, the dollar has lost 80% of its value since this interview took place. It has lost more than 97% of its value since the Federal Reserve was created in 1913. What do you think will happen once we lose that last 3%? That is when the masses wake up and realize that inflation is a deliberate policy and will never stop - see "Human Action" by Ludwig von mises
The US Empire is in its last days, you only need to look back at the Roman Empire and the "Bread and Circus" distractions that were abounding back then compared to what people are bombarded with today to see it. Centuries from now, a difference of 40 to 50 years will not make a difference when future Generations look back at the collapsed failed fiat currency experiment.
Gold is fixed. Bitcoin isn’t. He had the right idea but nobody can audit all the gold. Bitcoin has fixed this problem. This is why they are 60,000 a piece.
As I continue along this path of learning about investing I am humbled to watch this interview. The fewer assumptions I make the better decisions I arrive at. Thanks for sharing!
What a gem. I just watched Doug's newest interview on the Daniela Cambone show yesterday. Whether you agree with him or not he provokes deep thought about the current state of society.
Doug Casey , you are a "Rock Star"
thanks for digging this one out!
As a lover of Phil's show years ago....Doug is another great guest. I watched this show everyday since the early 70's.
Good historical perspective. Everybody back then was gold / silver crazy, but the market had already topped, so they were all too late. That metal would be dead for the next 20 years. Nobody gives a shit about gold and silver these days, but when we see everyone talking about it on TV...that will be the next top.
Doug Casey, has always been spot on with his macro economic outlook.
As a millennial, I can't believe this was the quality of network TV back then. This is so much more engaging than anything else I've seen outside the magic internet box...well, the fact I'm watching this on my magic internet box notwithstanding.
The lady calling about her Silver that she bought at 22$ is pretty funny.
Price 4 decades later: 22$
and if you went long on anything but metals from then til now
youd be better off with silver @22 today
the whole way'
especially if everything you invested
was in silver 'period the past 6'months
(rather than the major haircut everything took
(and after this current suckers headfake
bitcoin will never be heard from again
'nor will residential realestate equity for the middlclass
cause (like silver)
they wont hav'any ,,,
@@AnthonyVanzant you’re forgetting one thing and she kept buying all those years. The metal went down and she continued to average down she would’ve been OK today.
Wow, that Mr Donahue would ask that female call-in when was the last time she participated in some type of "civic duty" demonstrates just how far away his way of thinking differed from that of Mr Casey.
Thank you for sharing this gem :)
Thing started to get heated in 1980. It took 40 years to blow up!
Doug Casey the 🐐 of economics. #Gold & #Silver to the 🌕 baby we out 🚀. #EndTheFed
More Relevant TODAY as it was 41 years ago!
Prophetic! I believe if he did not have the platform he got a 1980 "this show" it would have happened much sooner. There was a time when the stock market went down, precious metals went up, a time when the stocks reflected the market...
Now that the people have the same woes as the caller, 40 years later.
Viewing audience had hard time with not-voting idea. Looking back and now “ no party brought prosperity” it’s worse than ever. Politicians are bought and in the pockets of corporations.
So, the same shit is being said today that was being said 40 years ago. So, when exactly is the ship gon a sink then???? For fucks sake! I think America is gonna last forever then.
His parents didnt give him anything. Except a free college education.
Imagine putting all your money in gold in 1978 and not ibm or ge or real estate. Lololol
@@magilicuddy1827 And he said he had to unwind what he learnt in college, and thus, a waste of money and time in college.
Not exactly the same. Difference is that debt and deficit was so much lower 40 years ago. Doug did not predict Volcker coming in and defending USD. Today that would not work because USA can't pay the interest. Defending USD today would mean no pension, no unempyment checks, no social support for all the single mothers, no cheap products from china, no medication from india etc. Possibly starvation in USA. At least I have not heard any theories how USA could get out of this box.
@@FiZc agree. thank you
This show is as relevant today as it was almost 50 years ago. Wow, gold at $30 unbelievable. You can’t even buy a bottle of cheap wine with $30 today 2023. Looks like SBF saw this too
Doug is the man!!!
Thanks for posting the video. Go Doug! He handled himself very well and even Donohue more or less behaved himself.
Okay, we just hit the half-way point, and the catastrophe of private central banking hasn't yet been mentioned.
It was right, now and then, several times. So he is always true.
7:20 gold would be at the $3,000 level were not for paper gold and silver suppressing the physical.
The way people dress and talk seems much more reasonable than now
“A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largesse from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most benefits from the public treasury with the result that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy, always followed by a dictatorship. The average age of the world's greatest civilizations has been 200 years. These nations have progressed through this sequence: From bondage to spiritual faith; From spiritual faith to great courage; From courage to liberty; From liberty to abundance; From abundance to selfishness; From selfishness to apathy; From apathy to dependence; From dependence back into bondage.”
― Alexander Fraser Tytler
The great philosopher Yogi Berra was 100% right when he said that famous phrase, "it's very hard to make predictions, especially about the future."
Reagan did offset the crisis for another 15 years... He was right on the long run, though.
a few years too early but bang on
He was wrong. 1980 was the gold price peak. And the stock market went on a 20 year run since this interview. No Greater Depression...
uhh do you have eyes and ears? we had a financial collapse in 2008. now we are witnessing a global collapse. only thing central planners could do is slow burn. stop watching Fox and CNN
Few people realize that the U.S. dollar has a stronger relationship to the prices of oil and commodities than silver and gold and that these precious metals can be overpriced, are less liquid and have fees.
Article
Fool’s GOLD Part2 :: The Market Oracle
MIKE STATHIS explains that gold does NOT protect against hyperinflation, but only against deflation.
SEARCH ON GOOGLE.
"One case study of hyperinflation that Erb and Harvey examined in detail occurred in Venezuela’s neighbor Brazil between 1980 and 2000, during which cumulative inflation totaled nearly 13 trillion percent-equivalent to about 250% on an annualized basis. They report that, over those two decades, the real price of gold in Brazilian currency terms fell by about 70%."
Gold Won’t Protect You From Hyperinflation
By
Mark Hulbert
SEARCH ON GOOGLE
@@taticorrea2226 Gold is a hedge against falling real rates. But I'm sure people in Venezuela or Argentina who hold gold have maintained their purchasing power.
If they exist.
Yeah, a few predictions were a little bombastic but the picture he sketched was dead on.
He was wrong. You can say he was early, but that's still being wrong for 40 years. I don't know what the future will bring, but he was wrong. It wasn't gold, but stocks to be in, even with all the recessions along the way. McDonald's did amazing also. Everything he said makes sense, but the timing of when something will collapse is not predictable, you can spend your whole life sitting on a pile of gold hoping for the world to end so your gold is worth more, and people have. But why? Why not instead have 5-10% in metals as an insurance and hope it never goes up.
Correct. The most optimal allocation stocks vs precious metals is 61.8% diversified stocks and 38.2 metals as insurance or hedge. Thats based in davinci golden ratio. If your stocks went up 10x but metals only 1.5x, just rebalance!
So, 100% in gold is not super smart, but so as 100% in stocks or all in cash
The first time I watched this clip a few years ago I realized that he was wrong, and how epic that was that there are still analysts spewing this story 4 decades later. I also stopped listening to Schiff. Schiff will be wrong all the way into his casket and then what? You'll have all your wrong allocations and he will be dead.
@@markanthony2495 The thing about their narratives is that they actually do make sense, they are true. They're not talking about bigfoot, but a real possibility of a meltdown. What they don't seem to get is that such a failure of the system is a "low probability event", meaning it 100% will happen, but the chances of happening in a given year or decade are extremely low. You can live your whole life and not experience it. It's the same with nuclear war. It absolutely is possible, it's highly unlikely, but given infinite time, it will happen. So given the nature of math and statistics, a sensible person should allocate appropriate amount of insurance, not go all in on gold and nuclear shelters because something can happen. That's not the argument, the argument is, how likely is something to happen.
@@darkodosen1025 I agree. If you subscribe to the "its going to fall apart soon" theory, I noticed, at least for me that it started to bleed into my life decisions. Not buying a house, not starting my 401K, being afraid to switch jobs because of some Schiff-life proclamation about how were "really close to the end". It just never happened. The toll that it takes on you psychologically really isn't worth it. I dont want more than 10% of my wealth in gold or silver. The plus side of not believing Schiff predictions is that you get to live a happy care-free life (probability wise). If Schiff is right one day, oh well I'll deal with it. Honestly I'd rather bet against his predicted outcome at this point. See you at DOW 100,000.
If some1 had bought gold at that time and held it for 30 years dcaing along the way, they actually would have made a massive profit during the 2008 global financial crime. He got the fundamentals right, but the time frame wrong. He was still too young and lacking experience.
11:10 the four things that government interacts with people on or true but the fifth one is licensing as a form of local regulation, DMV, States, and license plates.
Fortunately Doug Casey communicated clearly his solid advice. The content in the book is solid and spot on. It seems that Mr Phil wanted to entertain vs understand and educate his audience.
Omg, he was handsome!
This interview was 5 days before i was born.
He is still great.
Thanks Doug. Here we are again…..
07:30
(1980)
"Gold to go to $3.4k+/oz within 5 years"
Ya I agree that prediction was about 45 years too soon. If you would have bought gold in Nov 1980 it would have been about 26 years before you broke even.
thats the thing he might have been right if they didnt jack interest rates up to 18 percent which was crazy at the time,
Another thing I notice about this interview is that you can take all the things you said and extrapolate them to whats going on now with Biden. Difference is that Pres Carter was just dumb and naive, but Biden is doing this on purpose or whoever is behind the scenes. But you're right, but your predictions just took a bit longer to come to fruition. You can just hope a guy like Desantis makes his way to Washington, but the Bolsheviks in charge will probably do something that most communists do ,stay in power in perpetuity with crisis politics
He was correct on the stock market and bond market. Wrong on gold at least on his timeframe. Never got the hyperinflation he predicted. Was correct about the strength of the dollar, but it didn't crash to the degree that he predicted. Very wrong on real estate. This show tells you how much America has changed in 40 years. The average television viewer does not have the attention span or interest to consume shows like this today. People have become a lot dumber.
well we're about to get it. does that count as him being right and he'll live to see it?
How do you define "hyperinflation"? Doug defines it as an expansion of the money supply without an equal increase in the underlying commodity (e.g., gold). Since we do no longer have a gold standard but unbacked fiat money, all money supply expansion is inflation, and we have had plenty of that. This led to increasing prices in goods & services, which we have also seen plenty since. The dollar has been on a purchasing power decline ever since this interview. Thus, he was also spot on there. I would like to see real estate priced in gold (i.e., real money) and not USD to make the judgement.
@@dennouvelle7524 purchasing power decline =/= hyperinflation.
They aren't dumber, it's just that the medium for media has changed. People listen and watch 3 hour podcasts ffs.
Gold never got to 3400 an ounce.
Insanity!
For over 40 years...the same schtick!
Gotta love him!
@@dontjustbeanotherbrickinthewal Doug isn't CIA but I wouldn't doubt if he was a Freemason
@@abyss5883
Yup! He wasn’t to passive about the hands was he!!!
1980 ? I bought a super home in the suburbs on 3/4 acre for $50K. A new car in 1982 for $6K. Gas was $1 a gallon. My Health Ins was $400 a year. Tell me how the economy didnt crash into a mountain since then ?
So Good!
He has been preaching gloom and doom for 45 years meanwhile America has had incredible wealth creation over those decades.
38:30 a section is cut out
30:14 Slaaaaap hahaha
The dollar still is not a problem 40 years later.
Really? Lol
Countries are now excepting anything other than the dollar for oil....
Are you sure about that?
Yep now he’s a billionaire.
Only 2018, very surprising.
't can;t be
I just came across this...WOW it is/amazingly accurate
I wonder where is the host today if he is alive.
Check Doug Casey`s Take channel
Doug Casey sits there, wondering why he has agreed to be surrounded by a bunch of idiots... while trying to help them save their wealth.
Clearly many of his predictions were wrong, but we must remind ourselves that nobody can perfectly foresee the future, even today. How was he or anyone else to predict that the Fed chairman during the Reagan years would bring down the extremely high inflation rate? Even Reagan didn't _know_ that back then! Additionally, other countries made different unforeseeable choices which would affect the marketplace. Remember, this happened pre-Internet. He was probably relying on certain overseas publications via snail-mail in order to come to the conclusions he made.
Some of the crashes he predicted actually happened. I was a young man in the '80's, and I well remember the lines of people standing outside waiting for a job interview for the small number of job openings. I also remember double digit inflation rates and the S & L collapse! The price of gas became very expensive for awhile too!
But his personal and political philosophy was 100% right back then and remains so! We now have crypto-currency as an investment option too.
I don’t believe there was a depression in the 80s , 90s or 2000s … 🤷🏻♀️ so is this a prediction for 40 years later ? Lol I’m not sure 😅 … other than his depression predictions, I do agree with him
I never realized Ted Kennedy had his own TV show in the 80s.
Doug: “Buy gold at $600/oz.” Wait 27 years to break even. Genius. A true legend.
Not just that, he recommended buying mining penny stocks on Spokane mining exchange (the one that was shut down in 1991!!) You would have lost your shirt for sure! 😂
Doug wasn’t right on every prediction. That would be incredible if he was perfect.
@@jamesconnor4479exactly. He got some things right, some wrong, but he has always been right about owning sound money such as gold /silver and that a collapse in society is inevitable.
Imagine buying in 1980 gold and you’d be stuck holding the bag for 40yrs until you reach the same buying power if you didn’t gave up on gold in 2000 at 250$
Imagine SP how much it went until 2000
Oh boy, I going to get some gold now
Fast Forward to Mid 2022 (NOW) and most of his predictions are coming true and then some. Meanwhile Mr Casey has become VERY VERY VERY VERY rich.
Is the audience still booing? Their indoctrinated indebted children would be.
Take note that you know who has cnsrd parts of this interview.
Invest in peanuts..plus they're tasty too and can stock for a long while..
Unfortunately he was dead wrong in the short run
maybe he extend'd their play as folks caught on to centralbank/treasury collusion and they let a bunch of generations pass
(justa thought' ,,,
11:46
@12:25 "They were able to get their hand on their bootstrap because government helped them." 😄
Dearest Doug. You were wrong!!!
All his predictions are wrong.
Nostradamus like decades ahead ?
If he had it wrong then, he''s a helluva lot righter now.
Stock market since 1980 is a pretty nice play lol
Doug was wrong on the fast food, they are prospering as of 2021
2022 Global food shortages, double digit inflation.
Legend
Long live Eugenics
"Investing" in PM should not be the goal. If you buy it as a hedge instead and it takes a nice gain, fine. If it drops, no big deal. If an economy goes down the drain the PM scenario is automatically worth more than anything else, if anything else is even on the starvation premises, assigned value be double damned, screwed, blued and tattooed up the wazoo.
No TikTok celebrities
A great era. The 2000s 2010s and 2020s suck
And it happened in 2008
Aged well
40 years later… still waiting ⏰
We don't have to wait for too long now. Unfortunately.
It has already happened. It’s still happening. You just have to look around yourself.
To begin with, the quality of the conversation sustained in the program, look at those women discussing economics, look at what the majority discusses today about.
Are you really doubting quality of life has not degraded since the 80s?
Have you seen the price of gold?
It’s an error to think it’s going to happen from day to morning, it’s a slow but relentless decline.
First slowly, then all of a sudden.
@@xxxxxxxxxx02
It took 100s of years for Rome to collapse, compared to that now it's happening at warp speed.
@@FF-em5jk yes, my point precisely. Sorry I was answering to the OP, but did not mention.
Tick, Tick,Tick,Tick, BOOOOOOOMMMMMM
Comrade Phil’s ideas didn’t age well
Most of the people in that audience are probably dead.
The gold story was total BS
Well, Doug was dead wrong about a number of things here. His timing was also way off. His concepts were sound, but a soothsayer on price and event timing he certainly was not.
Casey was not aware of the intense manipulation of the silver and gold markets and how quantitative easing affects equity and housing markets. If Bitcoin was available back then, he would have promoted it. Gold is too hard to transfer.
He is actually promoting it now :)
Wait so in 1980 this guy was inciting fear to sell his merch saying "this next depression is going to make the last one look like a technical recession" and he says not to buy real estate... IN 1980???????
If we haven't learned his scam yet then we just aren't paying attention. Fear sells people. Wise up!
Yes, today people see a lot of bad advice on TV and believe that they are going to have profits if they buy gold. It is a bubble created by gold and silver dealers.
Precious metals are just assets, their prices have not relationship to dollar (gold is no more the dollar's standart) and do not protect against hyperinflation
Few people realize that the U.S. dollar has a stronger relationship to the prices of oil and commodities than silver and gold and that these precious metals can be overpriced, are less liquid and have fees.
One case study of hyperinflation that Erb and Harvey examined in detail occurred in Venezuela’s neighbor Brazil between 1980 and 2000, during which cumulative inflation totaled nearly 13 trillion percent-equivalent to about 250% on an annualized basis. They report that, over those two decades, the real price of gold in Brazilian currency terms fell by about 70%."
Gold Won’t Protect You From Hyperinflation
By
Mark Hulbert
SEARCH ON GOOGLE
Article Fool’s GOLD Part2 :: The Market Oracle
MIKE STATHIS explains that gold does NOT protect against hyperinflation, but only against deflation.
SEARCH ON GOOGLE.
"One case study of hyperinflation that Erb and Harvey examined in detail occurred in Venezuela’s neighbor Brazil between 1980 and 2000, during which cumulative inflation totaled nearly 13 trillion percent-equivalent to about 250% on an annualized basis. They report that, over those two decades, the real price of gold in Brazilian currency terms fell by about 70%."
Gold Won’t Protect You From Hyperinflation
By
Mark Hulbert
SEARCH ON GOOGLE
A crying wolf will be eventually right but now 44 yrs later in 2024 gold still didn’t reach 3600$ and all the life passed by living in constant fear and pessimistic world view
It isn't very encouraging to hear how wrong his predictions were in this video.
This didn't age well