Every 2024 Oscar Race Picked: Who Will Win?
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- čas přidán 1. 07. 2024
- The Oscars are just a few days away and I have my picks for who I think will take home the gold in every category!
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0:00 - Intro
1:14 - Shorts
4:18 - Technical
12:07 - Animated, Doc & International
15:07 - Ad break: Express VPN
16:32 - Writing
18:17 - Acting
22:46 - Director & Picture - Zábava
time for Dan's obligatory mention of Toni Collette not being nominated for Hereditary ...
And we love him for it ❤
As is tradition
😅
And he is correct
As he should! 😂
I'm still in disbelief that my favorite movie from 2023 was Godzilla.... Definitely deserves the VFX Oscar. The effects did so much smart, character driving heavy lifting.
I hope they could pull off some sort of Ex Machina Oscar win thing for a low budget movie with amazing visual effects in winning that Oscar for Godzilla
@@15Candles me too. For me the budget is irrelevant. Guardians 3 and the creator were fantastic and visually stunning but the VFX didn't move the story forward for me. They were more reactionary to the demands of the story as most VFX is. I.E. need an awesome sploshion in space kinda of thing. In Godzilla the VFX effects moved the story on their own. The effects were a character unto themselves and not just an enhancement to others. But that's just my opinion .
Meh, VFX on G -1 weren't great. They were great for $15M, but hardly in the same class as other movies last year. Plus, the team that worked on the VFX were reportedly horribly underpaid and overworked to meet that budget (Dark Horizons). That's not something Hollywood, or anyone really, should be supporting at this level. Enjoy the film. Support filming outside of Hollywood. But, don't wish awards for G-1, IMHO.
Toni Colette should have won that Oscar for Hereditary. Her performance in that movie is seared in my mind forever.
criminal. She was amazing
Call me biased but I'm praying Cillian Murphy will win the Oscar this year. After our Irish Oscar disappointment last year i think it would be incredible to see him win an Oscar for Ireland. I think its great we're finally becoming a big name in the industry and I think Cillian winning would be huge for us.
Hard to see him missing out- he was fantastic and the Best Picture favorite is built around his character.
I thought andrew scott had the best performance of the year and he’s irish… Sadly wasn’t even nominated :(
Daniel Day-Lewis??
@@erickd8a he's English . he has Irish ancestry though
Oppenheimer is sweeping the Oscars.
If you thought EEAAO swept last year, OP will dominate this year.
100% agree
How sad...
that would be cool :)
Yes,it is. It's kinda regrettable,feels like overcompensation.
I’d vote for Cillian Murphy by a mile! He was out of everyone’s league this year even though all performances were incredibly good.
Sandra Huller deserves more credit for her performance in Anatomy of a Fall, I'd vote for her too
This video of yours IS my award season tradition
I'm with you Dan!! Justice for Toni Collette!! 😀
The only category I want to lobby for is Zone of Interest for Best Sound. Until I saw the movie I thought Oppenheimer would be the easy pick, but then Zone of Interest happened and I wanted to shake everyone's shoulder and point to that movie for Best Sound because it's so essential AND effective.
Yesssss - the long-standing lore of Dan being upset that Tony Collette was not nominated for Hereditary continues...
I wish "Self Love" by Metro Boomin from Across the Spiderverse was nominated for an Oscar. That was my spotify song of the year last year, love it.
Am I Dreaming from the Spider-Verse soundtrack was the best for me. Couldn't stop playing it
I’m rooting for Oppenheimer (I predict 8 Oscars) and Sandra Hüller 🙏🏼🙏🏼
I look forward to this video from you every year, Dan. You're always very informative with the nominees...something a fellow movie geek like myself can truly appreciate. Keep 'em coming!👍
Thanks for bringing “the last repair shop” to our attention. Found it, watched it, ❤‘d it! Thanks Dan!
well done. I love your approach with the 3 category comparison. Atta be Dan!
Hi Dan, thanks for your video. I just saw Anatomy of a Fall last night and while I enjoyed the film I'm not sure I am well versed enough in the technical aspects to know how it was "a masterclass" in film editing like you mentioned. I'd love to hear your thoughts so I can learn how to better recognize this in the future. Thanks!
Wish you were doing an Oscars watchalong like last year, but I completely understand why. Thanks for helping inform my predictions!
It would be wild if Oppenheimer lost the best picture
Anatomy of a Fall deserves more recognition than it is getting. Best film, actress and best performance by a dog.
Last time i was this early Dan was still at Screen Junkies
Great video!
Across the Spiderverse, my favorite movie of 2023, so rooting for it to win the oscar. But i will say this: That scene at the end of Elemental where she honors her father, gets me every single time.
It will win.
I would rather see Elemental or Nimona win so I also liked the ending of elemental.
You say the La La Land /moonlight incident is the most surprising moment. But versus the Chris Rock slap….. which is the most bizarre and shocking?
Hey Dan next time you need an idea for a quick video i would like to hear you break down your intro outro collage and get a little behind the thought of the movie and image you took from it
His is a great idea, seconded!
Yes, please
It's great to see so much competition in a lot of categories. 2023 was a fantastic year for film.
Gettung red carpet ready for the Oscars...at my home. 🎉❤🌟💛
Great picks! I’m in a similar page, however I wouldn’t like for maestro to get the makeup and hairstyle. And yeah, it’s not Oscar season unless Dan mentions in some way the criminally not nominated Toni Collette
Lily Gladstone's soulful performance is making rounds, but I'm just as excited about Best Original Song. I hope I'm Just Ken wins due to the fun lyrics and excellent choreography.
Soulful? Do not get Lilys' hype at all. She was in bed poisoned for most of the movie. Emma should win because hers was the best performance in the category and she carried Poor Things.
@@tonyg76And Anthony Hopkins won best actor with 16 mins of screen time in a 2hr film. So what's your point?
@@Papadoc1981 That at best, she should be supporting. I am all in on Emma winning!
Same I love Lily Gladstone ❤
Never agreed with you on anything more than your thoughts on Best Song. Dance the Night > I'm Just Ken > What Was I Made For
Dan, if it helps you can pronounce Karenina with an exaggerated Russian accent: "Ka-reh-NEE-na."
Hey Dan,
Can you do a Streaming charts video soon?
Thanks Dan.
TMNT shoulda been nominated for best Animated movie. Least that had an ending
Great video Dan!
Excited for oscar night!
I think that Oppenheimer will sweep the awards, but I hope that the Academy spreads the love around as they have a strong group of nominees this year.
Yes, I think sweeps make sense in a year of mediocre movies, but when there are so many strong contenders, it's really demotivating for the people who worked on those great movies
Our Super Bowl!!
I don't think Barbie will get neither Production Design or Costume. It has lost a lot of steam. I predict Poor Things getting both.
I'm still predicting that Barbie might win Best Production Design but one thing that's for sure, that movie is not going home empty handed as Best Original Song is likely their biggest chance to win
So, you're a quantum physicist who does this on weekends? Run for President. ~~ Thanks for a fantastic job! You've greatly increased my knowledge and expected enjoyment for tomorrow's Awards! Al Mora
The difference with The After and The Last Goodbye is that Riz Ahmed was nominated for the film (now he's Oscar winner for that), David Oyelowo is not. But he's right in the sense that sometimes films with better known actors usually capture more attetion than other (but then again The Wonderful Story... hay Ralph Fiennes, Benedict Cumberbatch, Ben Kingsley and Dev Patel, and it's directed by Wes Anderson).
If all else I’d say Red White & Blue is the best shot to beat Henry Sugar esp with its topical nature (and it has a decently known star Brittany Snow)
The Oscars is on Terrestrial TV in the UK this year for the first time in a decade or so and I am THRILLED! Staying up till 2am Monday work be damned!
Great t'shirt choice 🦈
This image of look out for with best actor is hilarious
My Oscar predictions (Who will win)
Best Picture : Oppenheimer
Best Director : Christopher Nolan
Best Original Screenplay: Anatomy Of A Fall
Best Adapted Screenplay : American Fiction
Best Actor : Cillian Murphy
Best Actress : Lily Gladstone
Best Supporting Actor: Robert Downey Jr.
Best Supporting Actress: Da'Vine Joy Randolph
Best Cinematography : Oppenheimer
Best Production Design : Barbie
Best Editing : Oppenheimer
Best Costume Design : Poor Things
Best Original Score : Oppenheimer
Best Original Song : "What Was I Made For?"
Best Animated Feature : Spider Man Across The Spider Verse
Best Visual Effects : Godzilla Minus One
Best Sound : The Zone of Interest
Best International Film: The Zone Of Interest
Best Make Up and Hairstyling : Maestro
Honestly, I wish the Oscars could do a tie again just for a fair two win at one night. Last time they did that was Skyfall and Zero Dark Thirty won Best Sound together
Thanks Dan for the video. Especially starting with and pointing out the Best Short Films. That is really an under appreciated category but deserves better recognition because making a Short requires creativity because time is limited and so is the budget. I will try and see some of these shorts.
Overall I think we are seeing a patronizing tendency in Oscars with a few movies dominating all categories. I mean Blackberry not getting a single nomination. John Wick and Mission Impossible especially the former not being considered for cinematography. Joaquin Phoenix not getting nominated for performance in Beau is Afraid which in my opinion was better than The Joker. If I ever meet him that is Joaquin I am going to given him the small type of award that a protestor gave to Senator Ron DeSantis. The participation award. But if DeSantis was given an award to mock him my award to Phoenix will be in appreciation for not participating and yet winning.
But yes overall my attention would be on the 2 categories of Best Actress and Best Picture. Now I haven't seen but just going by general opinion all but Best Actress is a tight race. Lot of people are saying that Stone was better but Gladstone will win because of political reasons. And then haven seen Sandra Fuller's performance I wonder how can this performance be beaten.
Next of course will be Best Picture.
Rest seems all decided. I mean if there will be an upset it can only be in those 2 categories.
Agree on everything else, but Gladstone can win because she deserved it, not solely because of her ethnicity and the politics surrounding it.
Dan gets through the awards in 26 minutes and the academy can't get it under 3 hours
Funny that every 10 years, the oscar seems to go to the top visiornay director working at the time: 1994: Spielberg, 2004: Peter Jackson, 2014: Alfonso cuarón 2024: Christopher nolan?
I'd love to see an alternate video without the actors strike, and therefore Dune 2 probably being in every category. It would probably be the craziest head to head ever for Best Picture between it and Oppenheimer, or at least since There Will be Blood and No Country for Old Men.
My current GoldDerby predictions (as of 10.3):
*Best Picture:*
10. Maestro
9. Past Lives
8. The Zone of Interest
7. Killers of the Flower Moon
6. Anatomy of a Fall
5. American Fiction
4. Barbie
3. Poor Things
2. The Holdovers
1. Oppenheimer
*Best Director:*
5. Jonathan Glazer (The Zone of Interest)
4. Martin Scorsese (Killers of the Flower Moon)
3. Justine Triet (Anatomy of a Fall)
2. Yorgos Lanthimos (Poor Things)
1. Christopher Nolan (Oppenheimer)
*Best Lead Actress:*
5. Annette Bening (Nyad)
4. Carey Mulligan (Maestro)
3. Sandra Hüller (Anatomy of a Fall)
2. Emma Stone (Poor Things)
1. Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon)
*Best Lead Actor:*
5. Colman Domingo (Rustin)
4. Bradley Cooper (Maestro)
3. Jeffrey Wright (American Fiction)
2. Paul Giamatti (The Holdovers)
1. Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer)
*Best Supporting Actress:*
5. Jodie Foster (Nyad)
4. America Ferrera (Barbie)
3. Emily Blunt (Oppenheimer)
2. Danielle Brooks (The Color Purple)
1. Da'Vine Joy Randolph (The Holdovers)
*Best Supporting Actor:*
5. Robert De Niro (Killers of the Flower Moon)
4. Mark Ruffalo (Poor Things)
3. Sterling K. Brown (American Fiction)
2. Ryan Gosling (Barbie)
1. Robery Downey Jr. (Oppenheimer)
*Best Adapted Screenplay:*
5. Jonathan Glazer (The Zone of Interest)
4. Tony McNamara (Poor Things)
3. Christopher Nolan (Oppenheimer)
2. Greta Gerwig and Noah Baumbach (Barbie)
1. Cord Jefferson (American Fiction)
*Best Original Screenplay:*
5. Bradley Cooper and Josh Singer (Maestro)
4. Samy Burch and Alex Mechanik (May December)
3. David Hemmingson (The Holdovers)
2. Justine Triet and Arthur Harari (Anatomy of a Fall)
1. Celine Song (Past Lives)
*Best Cinematography:* (SUPERBET)
5. Matthew Libatique (Maestro)
4. Edward Lachman (El Conde)
3. Rodrigo Prieto (Killers of the Flower Moon)
2. Robbie Ryan (Poor Things)
1. Hoyte van Hoytema (Oppenheimer)
*Best Costume Design:*
5. Ellen Mirojnick (Oppenheimer)
4. Janty Yates and Dave Crossman (Napoleon)
3. Jacquline West (Killers of the Flower Moon)
2. Holly Waddington (Poor Things)
1. Jacquline Durran (Barbie)
*Best Editing:*
5. Kevin Tent (The Holdovers)
4. Thelma Schoonmaker (Killers of the Flower Moon)
3. Yorgos Mavropsaridis (Poor Things)
2. Laurent Sénéchal (Anatomy of a Fall)
1. Jennifer Lame (Oppenheimer)
*Best Makeup and Hairstyling:*
5. Society of the Snow
4. Golda [love for my man Guy Nattiv! 💙🤍]
3. Poor Things
2. Maestro
1. Oppenheimer
*Best Production Design:*
5. Napoleon
4. Killers of the Flower Moon
3. Oppenheimer
2. Barbie
1. Poor Things
*Best Score:*
5. John Williams (Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny)
4. Laura Karpman (American Fiction)
3. Robbie Robertson (RIP) (Killers of the Flower Moon)
2. Ludwig Göransson (Oppenheimer)
1. Jerskin Fendrix (Poor Things)
*Best Original Song:*
5. The Fire Inside (Flamin' Hot)
4. Wahzhazhe - A Song for My People (Killers of the Flower Moon)
3. It Never Went Away (American Symphony)
2. I'm Just Ken (Barbie)
1. What Was I Made for? (Barbie)
*Best Sound:*
5. Mission Impossible: Dead Reckoning
4. The Creator
3. Maestro
2. The Zone of Interest
1. Oppenheimer
*Best Visual Effects:*
5. Mission Impossible: Dead Reckoning
4. Guardians of the Galaxy: Vol. 3
3. Napoleon.
2. Godzilla Minus One
1. The Creator
*Best Animated Feature:*
5. Robot Dreams
4. Elemental
3. Nimona
2. The Boy and the Heron
1. Spiderman: Across the Spider Verse
*Best Documentary Feature:* (SUPERBET)
5. To Kill a Tiger
4. The Eternal Memory
3. Bobi Wine: The People's President
2. Four Daughters
1. 20 Weeks in Mariupol
*Best International Film:*
5. Io Capitano (Italy)
4. The Teachers' Lounge (Germany)
3. Perfect Days (Japan)
2. Society of the Snow (Spain)
1. The Zone of Interest (United Kingdom)
*Best Animated Short:*
5. Pachyderme
4. Our Uniform
3. Ninety-Five Senses
2. WAR IS OVER! Inspired By the Music of John and Yoko
1. Letter to a Pig [love for my people Tal Kantor and Amit Gicelter! 💙🤍]
*Best Documentary Short:*
5. Island in Between
4. The Barber of Little Rock
3. The ABCs of Book Banning
2. The Last Repair Shop
1. Năi Nai and Wài Pó
*Best Live Action Short:*
5. Invincible
4. Knight of Fortune
3. The After
2. Red, White and Blue
1. The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar
Dan, are you on Gold Derby?
Murphy was much better than Giamatti and will win.
The UK winning an Oscar for what comes off as a German movie would actually be hilarious 😂
Someone once told me that time was a predator that stalked us all our lives. But I rather believe than time is a companion who goes with us on the journey, and reminds us to cherish every moment because they'll never come again. What we leave behind is not as important how we lived. After all, Dan we're only mortal.
Speak for yourself torchwood00. I plan to live forever.
ABC is supposed to have a special episode of Abbott Elementary air right after the Academy Awards. It would be 10:30 Eastern/9:30 central. That is part of why they are starting it early.
I still have my DVR set to record the local news after because I have no trust in them actually getting the show done on time.
Thanks for being awesome Dan!
Oppenheimer is a best picture nominee that was also a high grosser at the box office, so here's my question, Dan: which historical Best Picture winner had (has?) the best legs?
One of my favorite shows of the year
22:59 I think it's a relatively straightforward victory for him, especially considering he received an award from his respective guild.
Best actor:Cillian Murphy
Best actress:Lily Gladstone
Best supporting actor:RDJ
Best supporting actress:Da'vine Joy Randolph
Why did you change your mind on Four Daughters? :(
Great work, Dan! So happy to see Nolan get his flowers for Oppenheimer. Well deserved. And watching RDJ and (hopefully) Cillian get their first Oscar this year will be special as well. Oppenheimer really was the perfect movie at the perfect time.
This was better than watching the actual award show.
Everyone seems to say "Anatomy of a Fall" and "American Fiction" will win in their respective screenplay categories. However, since this year's Writers' Guild Awards will only be announced after the Oscar ceremony, I wonder how 'locked' are the writing categories in this year's Oscars.
I didn't remember anything from the score of Oppenheimer and I'm a trained composer working as a music supe. It will shock me if it wins. Like not a single thing in that score sounded like anything that interesting. I don't understand the nomination beyond Ludwig Gorransen kinda being the golden boy right now
This is Nolan's year !!!
I'll be very happy either spider-man: across the spider-verse or the boy and the heron dub version to win both are really phenomenal animation movies and incredible character design and story. And I was bump down that Suzume didn't make it to the academy award nominee but at least got nominated at the golden globe and won Crunchyroll's Anime Award for best anime movie.
Rooting for GXK in advance!
I hope Elemental wins for Best Animated Film as Pixar films deserve to win in the Oscars
It was meant to be for Christopher Nolan and Oppenheimer. Exactly 30 years ago, the worlds top director at the time, steven spielberg won his first oscars for best picture and director for Schindler's list Like Oppenheimer. schindler's list is a WW2 biopic about individual who finds themselves in a moral dilema and their decsions have a big impact on the world and their own life. Funnily enough, both movies use both black & whie and colour for creative reasons. It is fate that Nolan will win!
Oh man, I'm stressed! There is money on the line here, and there are a couple that I am not sure what to go with...
Best Actress Obviously, Stone vs. Gladstone
Costume is a tough one too imo, Barbie vs Poor Things
Also not sure about Visual Effects, Godzilla vs Creator. Creator has the best IMO, but Godzilla is getting so much hype, and everyone is going "wow, it looks so good for a $15 million budget!" that it might win based on that.
Desperate for an interesting upset, but it's looking unlikely. Wondering if the preferential ballot could sink Oppenheimer (in a scenario where Oppenheimer had many #1 but few #2 ranks, and The Holdovers had fewer #1s but lots of #2, it could come out on top). I think there's an argument that The Holdovers is the "least disliked" title of the bunch.
Score is so tuff , Oppenheimer score really was amazing but Poor things score felt like its own character lol
Never forget the dark knight wasn't nominated for best picture.
Did the best picture nomination number change from "up to 10" to "10?"
Yes it is now a locked number of 10 nominees. This is the third year under the new rules.
Sandra Hüller is Nr.1 this Year !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I think we’re underestimating the power of the female voice especially this month. I’m gonna laugh when Barbie takes best picture 😂😂😂
ok
Can't wait for "I'm just Ken" win it
somehow I doubt it'll win, as it's 'too fun', but I'll take Ryan Gosling absolutely smashing a live performance at the Oscars as well!
Godzilla Minus One is definitely gonna win because everybody including #voiceactors keeps on talking about how incredible the vfx was made including really powerful story and strong human emotions and of course everybody and Dan's favorite JAWS boat chase which that scene was so terrifying and thrilling and even Stephen Spielberg saw it and love minus one.
objectively the visual effects in the creator were better. If you remove all this tinsel associated with the fact that this is the first nomination for Godzilla, that Godzilla’s budget is very small, and you don’t compare the artistic components of the films, but only compare the visual effects, then the creator should win
The Very First Time I saw the trailer for Oppenheimer, I told my friends it’ll win Best Picture, Best Actor, Best Director, and maybe best actress (Emily Blunt) and best supporting actor (Robert Downey Jr.). Then, Immediately after seeing it in 15/70mm IMAX in a Sold Out theater, I amended it to RDJ Definitely winning Best Supporting Actor (& hoping Emily would get nominated, which she did). I also guessed it’d take the Oscar for Best Cinematography, Editing, & Sound.
Collette should have won for Hereditary. And it wasn't even close.
Perfect Days upset for Best International?
I wish saying what you want to win honestly didnt have to have implications behind it depending on who wins or loses. I just wish people could have fun talking about the oscars and not be mad when they think their subjective choice doesnt objectively win
Dan, UK hasn’t been nominated in international feature film because they are mostly English language movies
I'm confident it won't win, but I am so glad that Wahzhazhe (A Song For My People) got nominated. It is such a powerful song that represents the Osage culture and captures the feeling of authentic festival dances.
The theme of this video seems to be: "Poor Things - always a bridesmaid, never a bride"
Is it to late for the plagiarism charge being levied at The Holdovers to effect its chances?
Yes, voting is closed.
Would be so like the Oscars for a movie like anatomy of a fall to beat Oppenheimer for best picture
I agree with most of what you said. However, for the most part Emma Stone carries Poor Things. To me that’s the definition of “lead actress.”
Oppenheimer Sweep 🧹
To hell with Barbenheimer, this will be an Oppensweep 🤘🤠
Here hoping that Sterling Brown pulls off an upset
Imagine, the one time Germany is not sending a movie with a WWII topic to the oscars, a British movie about a German family set in the WWII era, where they speak 99% German, wins the oscar.
I thing the Teacher's Lounge was a really good movie, but I guess if you didn't grow up with the German school System, it might not be as impactful.
It’s also funny about to think the UK never won best international feature and they might win it with a “German” movie 😂
Two things: I wish Past Lives would win something but it doesn't have much steam. Also, Carey Mulligan was excellent in Maestro, but the other nominees were in better movies
This year marks the most apathetic I've ever felt for awards season.
Rarity that you have this level of certainty on best director and best picture. A good chunk of these categories are forgone conclusions to the point if I was one of the other nominees I wouldn't even spend 10 seconds thinking about an acceptance speech.
Ah yes,
The Oscars: To Beat or Not Beat Oppenheimer
The Oscars: But Christopher Nolan released a movie this year
The Oscars: To Ken or to Ken not
The Oscars: I'm a Barbie Girl in a Destroyer of Worlds
I remember the time when everyone was sure that La La Land would win the best picture but oscars are never given to the obvious movies
I am pretty sure oppenheimer won't win best director, certainly not the best picture.Not because it doesn't deserve it, but because it is oscars
Rooting for Sloppenheimer