Ukraine war: Is Russian defeat nothing but a 'fantasy'? | DW News
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- čas přidán 10. 07. 2022
- Is the Ukrainian military now ready to strike back against the Russians? Five months into this war and the momentum appears to be with Russian forces. Less than two weeks ago they captured half of Ukraine's eastern Donbas region - and attacks on the other half have increased ever since.
Ukraine has vowed not to cede another inch of territory to Russia. At the same time Ukraine appears to be preparing to launch an offensive in the South. Holding the line in the East and pushing back the Russians down south. Is Ukraine now equipped with Western weapons to follow through. According to Kyiv, we will soon find out.
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#russia #ukraine #ukrainewar
Never underestimate a man defending his home and family.
You realize that over half of Ukraine is pro-Russia, right??? LOL. But, there are over 200 US biotech corporations, including "secret" biolabs, and for Biden, Kerry, the Clintons', & the elite, financial interest in uranium and oil which have remained safe & tidy while US politicians and gov't controlled media have allowed DOD to funnel hundreds of billions to "private" US corporations inside the mil industrial complex.
unless they are european. then you can guarantee they will run away and try to throw poor peoples bodies at the problem until they run out of them and are forced to face the consequences of being genocidal maniacs for the past several centuries
Which applies to the Donbass, whose oblasts have declared independence and have been under attack from the Ukranian state for 8 years.
which is why the LPR and DPR militias are fighting heroically and why the cannon fodder from Lviv really don't feel like they are defending their homeland when dumped in Donbass to confront the DPR, LPR and Chechens.
@@angelxxsin You do realize that they were the ones that started the shooting? And Russia gave them the weapons to shoot, heavy artillery and all.
When the US declared independence from Great Britain this guy would have said it was a hopeless cause
You forgot that in that independence, France supported the new state and went for a bankruptcy and a revolution for it
Without the direct war with France? Yes it would be. US had a ton of luck and barely made it. Basically UK had other things to worry about.
If we give up our guns Russia or China will be here in no time.
Actually it is a good comparison, France Supported the Americans so much that it wrecked their economy.
@Anonymous Bosch Those declarations were illegitimate since Russia had already occupied those territories with "little green men". The pro-Ukrainians boycotted those plebiscites because A) they knew they'd be rigged and B) they were terrified of any consequences of voting against their occupiers. Same thing happened with the Crimean vote, the territory was already flooded with Russia's little green men (who also probably voted, lol) so all the Ukrainian supporters boycotted it.
This is why votes in occupied territory can't be considered legitimate.
Don't underestimate the Power of people fighting for their homes.
Hence DPR/LPR will never be ruled from Kiev.
like they say "one motivated soldier is worth ten unmotivated ones"
@@randomclick2826 DPR and LPR are Russian puppet creations
@@olocin3477 and the Republic of Ireland is an American puppet creation. Yet it still exists and the people there would never allow Britain to take over again.
@@randomclick2826 I'm sure the population of occupied Donetsk and Luhansk oblast feel different now that they experienced Russian occupation first hand
This is a guy who probably predicted on February 24 that the war would be over in 72 hours. He seems to be following the conventional line of "wisdom," like the Pentagon. They were all wrong. He also doesn't exhibit much depth of military knowledge by comparing the resources of Russia and Ukraine one-to-one. And, he gives little consideration to "the size of the fight in the dog."
Nop! He is one of few in the west who are not telling fables or wishful outcome of this conflict. He provides a very well considered realistic analysis of the situation.
Russia hasn’t deployed it conventional army. It’s been all conscripts and chechens. There are a lot of questions about the absence of the Russian Air Force. Russia hasn’t “let loose”. If NATO doesn’t get involved and Russia maintains these standards, the war will continue. If Russia changes that, this will be over fast.
@@dynamicascension981 O my God, you made my day. You have a volatile imagination. Can you write books? You can be good writer. Perhaps you can be an excellent mental hospital patient too.
Also most of equipment Russia
In
Ukraine is using dates back to cold War, its like somewhere in Russia they had brainstorming about how to put old equipment out of commission and some1 said: "u know there is neighbor country that is pushing for Nato membership?"
@@dynamicascension981 this is urban warfare and Russians army have no chance fighting in to the cities, chechens have more capable to fight and win and have more experience than Russian regular army
Constantly and clearly - purposely DW is skipping the contributions made by Poland which in fact is SECOND , after the US of A military and humanitarian aid supplier …
The world knows. Much love and respect from 🇬🇧
Yup uk understands
We know down here too. The aid to Ukraine is awesome. Respect from New Zealand.
I'm in the US, even people here knows Poland and UK are helping for real, and people also knows German government is mostly just talk.
I have so much respect for Poland.
He’s an appeaser. Can’t believe people are asking them to give up their homes. This will set a horrible precedent and encourage further aggression in the future. Glory to Ukraine 🇺🇦 Hope you can kick them out completely!
Totally agree with you
@@micahdembo5140 Idiotic comment
Ukraine masterminds got what they wanted. Why should I pay for it?
@@micahdembo5140 I contribute more by staying working in the USA and sending thousand of dollars to my friends in Ukraine each month.
@@hs342 Yeah HS, doom, gloom, give up! Spread your winning Russian message.
These old men assume they know alot. Everyone assumed Ukraine would fall in a days. Bigger doesnt always mean better
Ukraine would have become a parking lot long time ago, if Putin did not wage a very conciderate war ,not targeting civilians.
If the extremely brave Ukrainians had this guy's attitude, they would be speaking Russian by now. What's the point of this guy? EVERYONE knows that they are fighting a tough battle. They could give up at any point, but they haven't because they have something this guy may never understand; heart, chutzpah, Inner strength, fortitude... They know they could lose. What is important is that they try. Predictions are pointless as they have surpassed anything that anyone would have predicted already and are still doing so. I hope they don't see naysayers like this. SLAVA UKRAINE.
@@robertdownes793 You mean a large part of the population whose homes and businesses they are destroying?
Slava Ukraine
Дякую, члени моєї сім'ї зараз воюють. Такі слова мотивують їх боротися далі, Героям Слава! (Use translator)
@@robertdownes793 я мешканець російськомовного Херсону, все моє місто веде підпільну боротьбу проти росіян, ті хто бачить позиції росіян - здає їх армії. Україні групи по саботажу зараз активні у Херсоні, тому все що ти кажеш - фейк.
This professor is full of crp. I like his house. Should I go take it because I'm stronger than he is?
It sounds like as soon as Russia turns off Germany’s gas, Germany changes its tone…
they will be burning wood/coal and keep cursing putin
Germany and DW have done more hit pieces on Modi than Putin. That says a lot. They're dependent on Russia so they take out the frustration on neutral countries.
Little baby is taught to behave by limiting candy supply
@@babblo1389 Not gonna lie, I laughed at this one.
Yeah, DW changes it's tune when their precious gas is about to be turned off. Shame, cause their earlier reports seemed more impartial, and now they bring this doomer numpty as an expert.
If they send enough weapons FASTER then it will all end much FASTER. So what do they need to do? Send ammo and weapons, FASTER.
By now you should realize that no amount of weapons sent would put Ukraine at an Artillery advantage to Russia 🇷🇺
Zele-💩 is already using Himars against Kherson region including civilians
More dea.ths you want?
You think so? Guns don’t shoot themselves. Have you considered perhaps their lack of training has contributed to some of this civilian collateral damage?
@@marksaunders7846 Russia lost 20 ammunition depots the last weeks. Look at satelitte maps that show fires in ukrain and russia and you will see the results.
Almost no new fires in ukrain because they run out of ammunition 😆
Ruzzian 0rcs and bots sow more lies everyday! Divide and conquer to sow discontent! Who listens to their piffle Orcs do! 🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦
Can you ever sympathize with someone that threatened you with nuclear weapons? Is that person ever going to be considered a reliable partner? Isn't that loosing strategically in beforehand?
The US didn't just threatened - they used nuclear weapons. Twice. Nevertheless, many countries consider them as a reliable partner.
@@Bee.Holder they used them in cooperation with Russia and with Russia agreeing, ay? At a point where Japan and Germany had taken like China, Afrika, Europa etc. nearly in total lol
So you understand why Russia will never trust America. After all America only stopped threatening Russia with nukes in the 1990s.
@@Bee.Holder Is russia a reliable partner?in what made up serbian fairy tale are you living in?If the western world isn't of your taste you can freely leave to greener pastures in russia lol.
@@randomclick2826 Dito
*Quick Questions:* [1] *What was said from the outset about the US war in Vietnam, again?* [2] *What was said from the outset about Russia's war in Afghanistan, again?* [3] *What was said from the outset about Russia's war in Chechnya, again?* You get the drift.
No lessons learned there by *Mr MIT Professor.* What a shocking display of ignorance by a professor at freaking -*MIT*-. The mumbling about Russia being a "big country" was *painfully cringeworthy.* No need for DW News to be awestruck by his title.
🤔
Good questions,. in the perspective of LESSONS LEARN,. by world leaders. ✅
But,.
What has the World Leaders learnt in the past decades,.
* " in my perspective :-
ie,. Super power leaders,. esp. from west Vs. the Credibility of United Nation. . .
ie:- violation of UN resolutions regarding " annexation of West Bank". .[ i 've NO intention to change everybody perspective]..
rather to 've peace 🌍🌎🌏 , 🌐
"The moral is to the physical as three is to one" - Napoleon Bonaparte.
There is a problem with the metrics this professor is using. If one were to rely solely on his metrics, it would have been utterly impossible for Afghanistan to defeat both the Soviet Union and the United States. War is not fought on a spreadsheet.
Zele👻
Slava Ukraine
Afghans have lots of mountains. In Ukraine the Russians are easily crossing plain fields and destroying entire cities. The comparison is not good.
.....He said that in his opinion and analysis both Ukraine and Russia are willing to fight now and in the future, so maybe you think that Russians don't have morale to continue the fight, that maybe true or not but that has nothing to do with this video
Stop repeating the narrative without thinking, don't be a sheep
So Ukrine is now Afganistan.....if that is what freedom means to people now.....good luck to the children of Ukraine......
Well, the U.S. lasted 20 years in Afghanistan. Can Germany last through that many winters?
One cold winter only. The year after they won’t need Russian gas anymore
People act like russia is the only exporter for gas and oil 😂
You flock of sheep need a reality check and that will come soon....
@@appletree6741 Switching back to coal?
American losses in Afghanistan were less than 2500 killed in 20 years. Conservative estimates of Russian losses in 4 months are around 15000. They're very different situations.
@Anonymous Bosch We could bandy around casualty figures all day. 4500 graves is no real indicator of anything, as you know. Bodies are taken home and many are not found or buried at all, so obviousl these are not going to show up on a grave count in Ukraine. The fact is that neither of us have truly reliable figures. However it's safe to say that the attrition rate on both sides in this conflict is very much higher than in Afghanistan during the American presence and so is the level of destruction. The monetary cost is also unknown but since it's relative to ability to pay it's only partly relevant. As I said, they're two very different situations.
Critics said Ukraine would lose within the first month of the war. Ukraine still lives and the courage and determination of its citizens will be remembered for years to come.
Only western media said that lol as you can see everything the predicted has been wrong...
@@TheDisinformationProjectNz Putin sent his best troops - the paratroopers - to take Kiev but they were quickly defeated in Hostomel. Now he has only the 3rd class troops left. Talking of Russians that means they can't advance but backwards without enormous artillery support. Soon the HIMARS will make sure the Russian artillery has no ammo to shoot.
@@jounisuninen you are so gullible
Ukraine lost before they even started the war
If the US didn’t supply them with intelligence, they probably would have lost the first round of attack.
Heres a question that no one seems to be thinking about:
"Can Ukraine survive as a country if it's government capitulates so easily?"
After all the horrors visited upon the Ukrainian people, do you think they would be willing to allow their leaders to negotiate an end to the war that means the loss of significant parts of southern ukraine and donbass? At this point, any kind of attempt to negotiate such a ceasefire could potentially result in the Ukranian government being overthrown by its own military/people.
A negotiation for ceasefire at current borders is probably only possible after a few more years of fighting and if the Ukrainian people lose hope of liberating their homes / territory.
Well said!!! I've been thinking that!
I as a pole would also like to remaind that we had our country occupied for over 100 of years and we continued to fight. Ukrainians had similar history and i doubt that any less will break them.
well they tried to negotiate before the war, so one side needs to "lose" to negotiate.
Even the Japanese in 1945 did not foolishly want to surrender against a much stronger opponent, but it took two nuclear bombs and 200,000 civilians, not soldiers, dead in just four days to change their mind. In fact, Emperor Hirohito immediately signed the surrender. If the Americans did it, the Russians can too.
Well, 9 opposition parties have been banned, anyone not supporting the government's view is interrogated and worse. Clearly, there are enough people who would allow Zelenski to take another course of actions, if they were only allowed to speak up and their views were taken into consideration.
Never underestimate the Ukrainians. Those people are though. And always been that. History is on their side, they were obliterated a lot of times. And this brave nation always fought back. My utmost admiration to Ukrainian men and women. Slava Ukraini. Slovakia is with you.
Actually I think your mistaken them for Russian’s
Amen! Germany is looking for more excuses to continue dragging its feet. For God's sake NATO, give these courageous Ukrainians the heavy weapons they so urgently need.
I agree , UK is with Ukraine, They have tremendous bravery and spirit. When Russia invaded we thought Russia would take control very fast but they beat Russia away in many places and i think Ukraine will win now as long as Nato give them what they need
@@georgegreen4819 small western mind’s
@@mereassassinates550 at least in the west we can think for ourselves, your dictator does all your thinking for you.
I mean considering how often Russia moves the goalposts for "victory", they won't consider themselves "defeated" either way
True, true.
That's a good one, lol
Well, only time will tell.
What do you mean by Russia move the goal posts? It is the West that assigns intentions to Russia. Are you mind readers?
What goal post?
I think that Russia can be defeated. If we don't see this through until the end, then we will be defending much more than just Ukraine.
Ukraine is not outnumbered, they have one million active soldiers by now - they are outgunned, they do not have enough weapons for their soldiers. They literally reject people willing to fight if they do not have previous military experience. They are not limited to a million, it is just that they have enough soldiers for the weapons they have. The motivation of the Ukrainians is absolutely mind boggling.
these are pure lies you have forced yourself to believe. keep
believing them
@@StonyKalango I consider myself very well informed, and quite analytical in that matter. I certainly did not force anything. Why do you think there are lies here? Or are you not serious?
@@vsiegel Let’s be honest with ourselves Ukraine have put up quite the fight. They’ve done it in a heroic fashion. But to say that Ukraine is going to push the Russians back to their borders it’s ludicrous if you look at the facts of what’s actually happening every single day. There are not going to be able to do that. And any honest person knows that you can hope for something but don’t say that that is going to be the fact based on realities on the ground. There is a difference there.
@@StonyKalango It is not yet understood internationally what the war means for the Ukrainians: This is a genocide-level war: A good way to express it is "They have to kill 40 million Ukrainians to occupy Ukraine". They are not weakened by more destruction. Another way to say it is "You do not negotiate with somebody who came to kill you." If the Russians gain ground, that does not mean the Ukrainians are weak, they just move their soldiers out of the way of the Russian artillery. But it weakens the Russians, because it makes their supply lines longer, slower, and harder to defend. Logistics is central in a war. I see how people could think the Ukrainians are weak because they are loosing ground, but they are actually good in strategy. Remember, you see a fight between the best and brightest from Ukraine against a large number of poorly trained, motivated and supplies Russians.
@Anonymous Bosch They are at home.
Rosen is a political science expert, why is he answering a military question? What expertise does he have in the field?
I read his article yesterday. This man doesn't have a clue about military affairs, i just cannot take his opinions seriously
It’s important to have many different views from various angles.
For Ukraine, there is only one option. Total victory with no concessions to Russia.
You can’t compromise on genocide. Give Russia a little and they will be back for the rest.
Exactly what I was going to say. We wouldn't ask a military expert for their expertise on Ukraine's government. He's overstepping and not speaking from a place of expertise.
For me the credibility of an "expert" solely hinges on 1 criteria: has he got skin in the game or not. This guy clearly has none of his skin that game. Also predictions about the future are extremely hard to get right, even for the best experts. Reality is always way more complex and nuanced than any prediction model humans can come up with. Also actors in a game learn and this changes all predicted outcomes all time. I hope the best for Ukraine!
Never give up nuclear weapons is going to be the lesson learned for other countries.
Do you mean like Iran and North Korea?
Ukraine wants to follow the steps of Iran and North Korea
Sadly true.
Ukraine didn had nuclear weapons, ussr had, its not easy having nuclear weapons
@@laurentiumanolescu you’re totally right. I’m sorry. Can you show me the flag the Ukraine used prior to approximately 1991?
How odd to see how an analyst, who by all standards must be considered a very educated and knowledgeable man, an academic, fails to grasp the most basic concepts of human existence. When you are threatened with annihilation, when you are facing an adversary that has no moral restraints whatsoever, you FIGHT and you DO NOT STOP FIGHTING until the threat is eliminated. This political scientist certainly has not spent much time outside libraries and offices. Ukrainians are fighting for their right to live as Ukrainians in a free country, is that so hard to understand. They will not negotiate that and they shouldn´t be pressured into talks and concessions by the West which is growing tired of the subject and wants to move on. Slava Ukraini - no power to bullies!!!
If they are fighting with the resources of other states . Those providing those resources will tell them what to do .
Isn't the NATO expansion in Eastern Europe a thread to Russian. You're so immature what happened to Cuba Soviet tried to put missile in Cuba and that's a thread to US security and now they're expanding NATO to Russian backyard.
In a utopian world what you are saying may be true. In a real world, the situation is much more complex. Many of you seem to overlook the fact that many Ukrainians in the east want to break away from Ukraine. The 2 new republics are actually made up of Ukrainians who are happy to fight against their fellow countrymen.
@@thembashibase3770 Exactly what the West refuses to accept and it makes me sick. Someone should be told, this war started 2014 for Christ sake!
It is almost sad to read all the fuzz about the ukraine people standing firm; the country has a lying and corrupt government, their police and military structure is influenced by right wing radicals and they have been driving the ethnic russians and/or Maidan-protesters down in the mud for more than 8 years. There is no whole Ukraine who wants to fight the russians forever, there is a political class and a western-oriented culture in the country that wants to do so. A power structure and political, nationalistic culture that has done all it could to get a grip on the whole country and by force submitting the south and eastern populations for the last 8 years.
"“You cannot reason with a tiger when your head is in its mouth” Winston Churchill
I think this is very short sighted. Ceding territory will only further justify Putin’s impetus for the war in the first place and lay the foundation for another conflict in the future.
Giving weapons to Zelensky will only encourage him to prolong the ...
Exactly. They will simply rebuild their army for another 8 ys and then come to swallow the rest. Russia must be defeated its the only solution
don't cede territory. Take a gun and go fight there. Or send your children there. Repeat until you die.
DW and their mainstream counterparts can talk BS all day but in the end they will lose credibility even by the audience with the lowest IQ when the reality and their rhetorics are always mismatched. Nothing DW and their western friends predicted so far has been correct. Every game changer from Ukraine or the west has been a disaster. Every intention of their sanction to cripple Russia has the complete opposite effect. 🤣🤣 DW should invite real experts not cartoon characters
no, it won't. After this war the Russian military won't be in a good place, and Putin will know that. AT best after like years of weeding out corruption, he might start eyeing Ukraine again, but by then Ukraine's army will have molded into a true NATO-tier military and could easily hold off and attacks by Russia. Once they get their land bridge and Donbas Russia will go 'eh, good enough"
Was Russian defeat in A-stan a fantasy? Yes, until they gave up.
Was US defeat in A-stan a fantasy? Yes, until they gave up.
Serious wars are long and bloody, not suited to the attention spans of military illiterates. Long, grinding war will be required to help contain the Russian Federation while other measures take effect. It may coerce mobilization of the ethnic Russians (not the expendable Buryats and other minorities the Kremlin benefits from losing as cannon fodder) who are quite capable of toppling the government.
Russia in 1914 was powerful.
Russia in 1917, not so much.
Russia is fighting a conventional military here and not an irregular guerrilla force like in Afghanistan. This is asking too much of Ukraine to defeat by themselves regardless of the weapons they get in there. I am hesitant to think the Russians can't knock out those weapons when they cross the border.
@@brandaonb4249 . Russia isn't even fighting a war here.
Noone wants to sign up for them. They're offering yearly pay on a monthly basis for new contracts. That's twelve times the normal monthly pay. Stop and think on that for a bit
Ukraine is fully mobilising and on its way to a million man army. Every able bodied young man and very large numbers of women want to fight for Ukraine regardless of pay
The issue of morale cannot be underestimated.
We already know the Russians cannot meet the Ukrainians in anything like parity of forces, and prevail, hence the massive artillery barrages
If the West can tilt the board back towards somewhat parity in artillery, the Ukrainians are very likely to prevail.
It's too soon to be talking about negotiations.
@@brandaonb4249 and if the Uke's keep taking out the ammo dumps and command post's, how are they going to supply and command the front line troop's?
Going to keep all the ammo and commander's in ruSSia? Just in time delivery?
The ruSSian's are already using syria and africa for troops, now they are emptying prisons to try and fill unit's.
They failed in the 3-5 day war, it's coming up to the 5th month now!
Now they are having to use the S-300 as a surface to surface weapon, is that because an anti-aircraft missile is such a good and accurate surface missile or that they are using anything they have?
@@brandaonb4249 If they can, they could have. If they have not, it means they can't.
You do not agree at any point to cede territory to this Dictator.Learn from History.
"Diplomacy": War is the direct result of the failures of said. (conversely, when victorious generals receive acts of unconditional surrender is an exercise of truly successful diplomacy.)
Diplomats often fail to comprehend that peace is not simply the absence of war.
Partially disagree. Diplomacy fails when two parties cannot agree on a mtually beneficial future or deal. It requires both parties to understand the other and respect there wishes. Putin respects no one in Europe and has seen them as enemies for a long time. This was bound to happen. We are all trapped in this small world now.
@@jamu8060 Deal:
Ukraine cedes Donbass, and southern Ukraine, maybe except for Odessa
But becomes part of EU and NATO
Russia will ceasefire and withdraw troops to new borders
Russia might or might not pay
War criminals may or may not be trialed in court.
Would you accept this deal?
@@clayalino9100 putin's stated red line is a NATO member in artillery range. That deal is untenable for that reason.
A day without begging is a day wasted- Ukraine government
A day without begging for weapons a day wasted. Lolol.
He suggests they just give up more land. why doesn't he give up his house to Russia too. Same logic.
exactly
Zel💩nsk
The Ukrainian people in the east and south were oppressed by Ukraine for the past 8 years. They lost their freedoms and were abused. They should be free.
Why keep wasting billions and billions of dollars and human lives in a war that can’t be won, if Ukraine cared about their citizens they should try to seek peace. The longer this goes the worse this will get for everyone
@@osk2689 If Russia gains more land they will just want more later. Your plan is to give them more every 10 years or so? Great plan.
My money is on Ukraine . Soviet Union at its peak could not successfully invade Afghanistan because mujahidins were willing to fight and US was willing to help them . Now Ukraine is committed to defense their country and the whole NATO is behind them . Russia is currently just a ghost of the former Soviet Union . Russian defense spending is even less than India. There is no way Putin can fight this prolong war. EU and NATO just have to stand behind Ukraine 100 % .
Ukraine cities are gradually being smashed and their industrial base ruined,it will be hard for them to push the Russian's back.
@@victor-hn1bh compare with What Russian did to Afghanistan ,what Russian manage to do to Ukraine is nothing . I do not say that Putin is not as ruthless as USSR . What I am saying is Russian military is shadow of USSR military and Ukraine is a lot stronger than Afghanistan. Ukraine is also getting a lot more help than Afghanistan did . Afghanistan bankrupted USSR , Ukraine will bankrupt Russia. Putin will be hanged or imprisoned by Russian by end of this war .
If they are so committed how come they have been pushed back so bad on the past month? You also forgot the USA abandoned Afghanistan at the end. Same thing will happen to Ukraine. Once winter rolls in and all those EU nations start to get cold feet because they gas they use to keep warm come from..Russia and now they outta ration, it's gonna be a long winter for European nations. Putin played the west like a fiddle.
Just like Steiner's counter-offensive
@@pratiptadey2700 It seriously resembles a winter war to me much more.
Why would someone choose such a sneaky title for their report? It gives me a deep feeling that DW is playing a double game, similarly to Chancellor of Germany.
What double game ? Chancellor of Germany business is Germany not Ukraine
if Russia/Putin wants his empire back then what would he do if England wanted thiers back, or Italy or the Vikings,
but
lets not forget Mongolia had the biggest that included most of Russia
including Moscow so dont the Mongolians have a better right to take
Russia back as they had Russia before it was really Russia? Mongolia has
more rights to Russia than Russia
they can try
Nature chooses the strong
@@diegomorata2885 and the good Lord chooses the morally upright.
@@Ron13579 - "God is on the side with the most artillery." - Napoleon Bonaparte
@@Ron13579 You've been reading too many fantasy books I'm afraid.
Everyone thought Ukraine couldn't stop the Russians at Kiyv. They did.
I'm not going to underestimate Ukraine. Russia advanced recently in the Donbass, but they did it at heavy cost. Meanwhile Ukraine has continued to get more heavy weaponry.
I am not sure if Ukrainians are reading these posts but if no other American on here says it I want to thank you for what you are doing. You all have had the cojones to do what us
world powers should have did a long time ago and you have taken them on with less superior military equipment!! After this conflict they will not be in a position to threaten the world like they once did, they've been exposed for their weakness!! Drones!!! We got planes that can level cities and a way better Air Force to deploy them We all know what happens if the eagle is forced to go to war.
How heavy was the cost exactly? Or are you parroting what others have told you?
Russian casualties 5,000, Ukraine's 60,000 (soldiers). The professor is correct in his assessment.
@@1969nitsuga The moors sacked Spain with less than 20k
I mean this really is Rocky and Drago all over again lol. Sure Drago was bigger but Rocky was a tough MF, and hard to beat beat!!!
Apparently this MIT professor has forgotten about Afghanistan. Russia does understand pain. Best Wishes
Afghanistan is nothing like Ukraine which is not mountainous.
Why promote defeatist opinions? Diplomacy means giving Russia what they want, as long as Ukraine is willing to fight we, the west, should keep supporting them and not give Russia anything it took by force.
It´s literally as simple as that.
These men are the same men who said that Russia would overrun UKRAINE in weeks,
I don't give them.the time of day, Ukraine can win, all signs are showing Russia is losing, they are losing men far more rapidly than anticipated, they lost some of their best equipment and trained men, they lost a lot of their top brass, they've lost so many drones, they are now begging the Iranians, their arms depots are at the mercy of the HIMARS, which to date Ukraine have only 8, imagine the carnage UKRAINE will inflict when more arrives
Russia is losing
The US was made by stealing land and killing off native Americans, why do you all think yourselves so righteous.
Tf are u on? Because reality has to be shown and not fairytales. What you’re saying is normalising censorship.
Leverage. Look up the word.
I really hate when this kind of “high profile” dudes overestimate the real capabilities of a failed country as Russia.
what is Ukraine capabilities? Ukraine can't take back their country.
@Anonymous Bosch Thank you!
He is sponsored by Putin. There many of those.
Just note how many Russian bots in the comments. They are directed here for a reason.
At least they are being paid with real money.
Rule number one is to never underestimate your adversaries.
Mr Posen proposes diplomacy like the Munich conference, that will work out just fine!
Gotta love these analyst's saying Ukrainians stand no chance.
He's wrong about the ruzzian commitment... Only the leadership is committed, not the soldiers.
This is ridiculous, I have had Ukrainian army has managed to amass 1 million soldiers vs 100K Russian. How are they still outnumbered?
They are in the east,Russia have sent 400000+ troops to Ukraine,50 % is in Donbass,so Ukraine is outnumbered 5-1 in manpower and 10-1 in artillery
@Anonymous Bosch If Putin mobilizes, then he is admitting the Russian army is not very good and having the Russian economy on a war footing would be difficult indeed. The Russian people are most certainly NOT expecting to go to war, anyway. Right now, Russia can't even produce a 21st century automobile, let alone tanks. They are even issuing Mosin-Nagant rifles since they seem to have run short of AK-47s and AK-74s. Equipping a huge new army would pose some serious, and possibly impossible problems.
@@frankduncan5685 Too many people focus on appearance. Russia doesn't care if they look good or bad. At the end of the day, all they care about is if they accomplish their goals.
@@frankduncan5685 Russia also produce hyper-sonic missiles, and the rocket engine for the USA....The engines Russia has supplied to the US are the RD-180, which are used in United Launch Alliance's (ULA) Atlas 5 rocket for launch missions. Between now and 2025, the ULA is targeting 24 launches and says that it already has the engines needed to carry out the launches
@Anonymous Bosch Why the .50 cal BMG is still made and still in use is because it is still one of the best heavy machineguns in the world if not the best. If Putin mobilizes, the Russian population might finally want to know what really is going on in Ukraine and then the truth might come out.... it is not a special operation and it never was, it is war waged on a brother nation.
Okay, so when the school bully demanded your lunch money and you gave it to him once, tell me he didn't demand it from you ever again.
I think you have a childhood trauma
Some of the sanctions have not even started . So estimating their loss from sanctions is presently a loose and optimistic guess. Russia's GDP is very small in contrast to the economies of the west. Just a few percent in comparison.
The gdb does not win a war, but the resources of a country. Do you think that Germany could win a war against Russia just because of the gdp?, even EU would’ve loose a war against Russia despite having a higher gdp. Russia has energy, much more than europea countries, it has one of the biggest food production industry and has a big military power so, no matter how many times you roll the dices, the better outcomes are on their side
What sanctions they were still selling gas to right up to today when they turned it off and for much more than they have ever done, they have found new markets for oil and they are have a massive country and resources, food and technology, previous sanctions years before this taught them how to easily cope without western imports, most of which came through other countries like Turkey and still does to this day, there is also plenty of companies breaking the sanctions and some of those are American companies by the way.
If Sanctions worked Iran and Nk would be out of business or be democratic countries by now..
Iran is closer than ever to have its own nuke ready to be use.
Russia is a long way more advanced than Iran and Nk. Why should it work with Russia?
@@ashishIMpro That is not correct because the $30 K of money in Thailand will not buy you an equivalent amount of goods on the open market as $100K in the US. It would mean you could not afford life saving medical care with expensive drugs or procedures that you would be able to buy in the US with that 100K.
Nor would you be able to buy the same quality or quantity of computer power so you would be disadvantaged materially.
@@ashishIMpro You say "Material world is different in each country. I know millionaires in this part of the world owning literally palaces and massive mansions, with thousands of hectares of agriculture lands. While merely being a millionaire in US won't give you such power. Same applies to any other country including Russia.
I gave you an extreme example that wealth has different significance in different part of the world.".
You are not above the material world and nobody is.
You fail to see that millionaires across the world do not all have palaces and in most western countries they do not have palaces .Palaces a do not represent a huge proportion of wealth most very rich people have. Most have it in their businesses. Agricultural lands must be owned by someone. What does it matter if a single person owns them as long as they are agricultural and productive. What does it matter if a million or billion dollar busines is owned by one person or if they own a large share provided it is productive? Nothing at all. b
Diplomacy is the condition when both parties ran out of ammunition, armaments and money to sustain war.
Ukraine's monetary reserves will last about six more months. After that the west will have to decide whether they will continue to finance entire costs of Ukraine as a country plus all the necessary equipment for the continuation of war.
@@Bee.Holder russia defaulted a week ago. State Bankruptcy will follow. Ammunition and morals are low. Putin is running out of time and power
and who ever calls for a cease fire first is the one that KNOWS they are being beaten badly...hint nato usa ukraine...lol
@@cndres9119 Russia defaulted not because it went bankrupt but because it's technically unable to pay due to sanctions, that's a big difference and you (should) know it.
Slava Ukraine💙💛 🇺🇦
I wonder what this guy said about Ukraine on Feb 24th? I prefer to trust people in higher positions than those at MIT.
I wonder what did we say 2014-21?
Barry Posen along with all the realists were 100% right about the failure of USA foreign policy since the fall of the Soviet Union until today.
@@richiesd1 Typical tankie trying to spin this as a USA thing... dolt.
USA told everyone Russia was planning for this attack, even down to the week. Meanwhile, most the rest of the world said "nuh uh, Russia is just posturing, USA is just fear mongering!"
Move along with your anti-US hate.
@@richiesd1 The same realists that base their assessments on 'Putin doesn't lie' as Mearsheimer says?
@@btrswtluvltr , Putin doesn’t lie anymore than Western leaders. You should read John Mearsheimer’s book on why leaders lie, or at least listen to his lecture about his book. John Mearsheimer’s work is very academic. He has been very accurate.
This professor is obviously intelligent, educated and very experienced.
My problem is he's an appeaser.
So grateful to see the hundreds of excellent comments rebutting his take on the situation.
I look firward to DW having him on afain in a couple of months
I love this channel, the war brought me here.
DW has some terrific staff and excellent contacts to interview.
And finally DW has collected some of the most interesting and informed people who follow the channel.
So grateful for all the comments,,,
trolls excepted.
Best Wishes to all who post here !
Slava Ukraine !!
Easy to be an appeaser when you're giving someone else's country away.
appeaser or realist?
nice joke🤣.... after losing almost 200k troops...
Change your medication... The you are taking right now isn't good for you.
Who lost 200k troops? Rusia or Ukraine?
Ukraina will prevail!
Please send more heavy weapons!
Slava Ukraina!
💙💛💙💛
@Faiez Cader why don't you or keep stum!
Yes, send more weapons, tanks and artillery to Ukraine ! I'm sure they will work wonders against the Russian drones that have consistently been blowing everything up as soon as they enter Ukrainian territory.
Russia has the Air superiority and unless that changes weapons won't do anything
“The desire to defend your motherland ... really exists there [in Ukraine]; they intend to fight to the last. The situation is not normal when a coalition of 42 countries has gathered against us, while our resources, both military-political and military-technical, are after all limited. The situation will frankly get worse for us."
-- retired Russian colonel Mikhail Khodarenok on Rossiya's TV show "60 Minutes"
The desire to defend DONETSK REPUBLIC. Their homes and families are there.
Btw Watching Russian TV is not a good idea
@@babblo1389 😂
@@babblo1389 what? I didn't know that country,maybe that's in a fairytale jajajaja
@@TonyA-ex1sjlol by that neither was Bosnia & Herzegovina, but NATO forces separated it from Serbia by force now Donbas would be separated from Ukraine by force it's nothing new .
So Russia committed 18% of their army right now to this war .. what happens if they start using 40% or something? Can any of them experts analyze that ?
It's more than probable that the current committed force of Russia is the maximum usable strength. You go to War with what is available. Even the most incompetent general staff will not go to War with only 18 % if 40 % was available
@@k2two57 because it’s not a war it is a special military operation 😅… when I look at Russian active army shows just over a million and everyone is saying they committed 190k that works out to about 18% don’t forget 2 million reserves that will make 3 million strong if 100% committed… who ever think that can win war against Russia is straight up delusional
I understand where he's coming from, but I can't imagine this being an acceptable view for the Ukrainian side. His ideas will likely be an acceptable deal for Russia since it knows it screwed up and needs an exit strategy, but to cede the territory taken by the Russians right now, while it would be just as hard for the Russians to hold onto it seems overly defeatist.
Don't get me wrong, I think the Ukrainians will have a very difficult time re-taking their lands since their equipment and army is so centered around defence, but the coming counteroffensive to Kherson I think will be an important testing ground to see what Ukraine's options are.
Kharkiv gives hope. Despite the Russians giving it their all, they not only managed to hold onto the city, but push the Russians as far back as reasonably possible without having to fire at Russian land. Russia has been slowly winning Luhansk, but they seem absolutely exhausted, they paid far too high a price for Severodonetsk and Luhansk. I might be wrong, but I think this is the last big military victory for them. Time will tell though
I'm not sure Russia would want to occupy too much of Ukraine. Their local leaders wouldn't survive long, with car bombs, snipers and drone strikes going off every other day. Putin and Moscow won't give a toss, but there will be open season on any administration that tries to set up base there.
Germany and France will be quick to embrace this point of view!
Yeah Ukraine is winning and will retake all they have lost That s true only in the f...ing METAVERSE but in REAL WORLD Russia is taking all the Donbass and the next will be Odessa, Kharkov, Zaporojije, Dniepro 🤣😅😜🤪😝
I dont think the Russians are giving it all. But I'm sure they will do that before they ever accept defeat.
I'd love to look at where his money came from...
Today a long time member of the Finnish parliament and former minister stated that cost for fuel, food etc will rise more and be high for a long time. BUT we have to endure because - Russia MUST LOOSE THIS WAR! - note - not Russia can’t be allowed to win but MUST LOOSE! 🇺🇦🇫🇮🇺🇦
Russias horrible acts are sinking in slowly but surely..
Absolutely!
Your fantasy world is cute.
Lets wait for the winter in Europe without the Russian gas, and then we can speak about the reality.
Keep on dreaming, pal, or read some decent uncensored news.
@@renckisero • In your opinion, what constitutes "decent, uncensored news?" Rather than belittling other commenters, why not use this forum to educate them?
@@renckisero it hurts doesn’t it when 🇫🇮🇸🇪 are in NATO.. 😂
I disagree with Barry. He probably thought that the war would not last this long. If Ukraine is afforded the supplies to win it will just be a matter of time before other Russian Dominated Countries decide to seek independence as well. The point of a gun is no way to keep strong allies.
Not all people in Donbass see Russia as “liberators” and have seen their home destroyed and their hometowns invaded by Russian occupation. RT makes you believe Russian speaking Ukrainians were all welcoming the Russians as liberators. The opposite is true. Russia has destroyed everything! God bless Ukraine. 🇺🇦 Russia is not the enemy, Putin is. We need the coming years to rebuild NATO’s military defense industry
He make more sense to me if you leave emotions aside, russia can sustain this type of war while Ukraine loses is not sustainable sooner or later they need to make decisions becouse the western economy is going down there is so much the west can do
Prof. Barry doesn't have an understanding of Putin or the Russians at granular level. Prof Barry is intimidated by Russia's size and doesn't understand the weapons that are being sent to Ukraine. Putin is an animal who respects only power and lethal force. If he does not see you as capable of killing him, he has no respect for you, and roll over the top of you before humiliating you and killing you. Ukraine currently has 4 HIMARS, and the Russians are very concerned. The range and accuracy is far beyond anything they have. Russians cannot currently build new T-90 tanks. They cannot build any new guided missiles, as the components were imported. They have massive stockpiles of artillery shells,...but artillery pieces wear out. They need parts replaced, and there is wear and tear. Each time a HIMARS fires it scores a direct hit. All they have to do is fire one 6-pack,...reload and fire another. That's 48 targets destroyed every day with just 4 HIMARS In 2-3 weeks there will be 12 HIMARS. Convoys and staging areas, Tanks, BTR's, BMP's, S-300, S-400, Fuel Depots, Ammunition depots, Airfields, Ships, bridges, and command & control centers. Ukraine's biggest problem will be keeping the HIMARS reloaded, and identifying targets. If Barry thinks that Ukrainians will simply give up large portions of Ukraine after Mariupol, Kharkiv, Irpin, and Bucha,...he hasn't been paying attention and doesn't understand Ukrainians. Putin has created a generation of people who look at the Russian military and Putin as a bunch of savage looters raping, murdering, and torturing their way across Ukraine as they destroy all cultural evidence of Ukraine. Give up? Not likely. Russian troops are fatigued, and their supply lines are getting longer, while Ukraine receives new hardware, and they are motivated to fight. They are fighting for their homes and their families. Putin has a tiger by the tail that is getting stronger, not weaker.
totally wrong assumtions , the western economy is strong and can take very big hits before really shaked . Russia economic is so little compared to western . right now westen countries is only suffering on newpaper frontpqges because they a bored to write about other stuff. we are not even in war/crises mode yet . we can easely keep support ukraine if we really want ,until the last soldier in ukraine is out or dead .
The answer is simple: The Ukraine must fight back or go under and cease to exist. As regards negotiations: don't we also have a policy of not negotiating with terrorists?
they will cease to exist if they continue to fight, on the other hand if they surrender they will lose a lot of territories, both options are bad
No amount of money or weapons will ever be enough for zelenski.
No point in having lots of ammo if it keeps getting destroyed, and you can't replace the barrels of your weapons fast enough.
ruZZian bot, you are so hardworking. kremlin will pay you 3 rubbles, you can buy hawthorn.
Bots say it helps 🤣🤣🤣
@@anchoranchor3495 na not everyone is a dummy like u. I’m from Australia and can tell u Ukraine cannot win that war. It’s like Mexico fighting America
@Padraig Agree, and the issue is not only because of bad trainings. They are actually badly educated people. That is why:) Thank you for supporting Ukraine 🇺🇦
@Padraig "Ukraine only has small warehouses". Where do you get that load of cobblers from?
"On the other hand, the Russian army keeps making massive tactical errors because they are not trained well". More cobblers.
"They store a massive amount of their ammunition in a single warehouse, and then it gets destroyed". So you got an inventory list of what was destroyed did you? Russia says it was a potassium nitrate factory. Ukraine says it was munitions. As Russia only arrived in the region a month or so ago how big a munitions dump do you think they made? If it was a munitions dump it is unlikely to be large because Russia is on the offensive. It is the defenders who build large munitions dumps in their defensive strongholds.
You couldn't be more wrong if you tried.
@Padraig "Im sorry I didn't realise you were a military expert". Fair enough. Apology accepted.
Negotiate what? Do you think Putin will give back Crimea and the parts of Ukraine already taken just like that? If you negotiate he will want more.... of course weak Germany and France just want business as usual and let Ukraine pay the price and send as few weapons and as late and slow as possible/
Not wanting to be drawn into open war or a proxy war doesn't mean you're weak. Dialogue is the best solution
@@ajeibioche6795 At this point, I wouldn't be surprised good and evil each evolve to become their own separate species.
Unwillingness to face the reality can have catastrophic consequences. It's better to negotiate than to be forced to capitulate.
My first question: Why would the Russians bomb the seperatists; like we are actually told.
Russia is already in a war economy. What is he talking about. No way Russia can prolong this for years and years at current rates and they make/made almost no progress at all.
Good interview. Very candid, great questions and very well-conceived responses.
Yes just let Russia do whatever it wants, steal as much land as it can. Than in a few years Russia will attack Ukraine again or some other country.
Vladimir Putin does not value human life. Regardless of how many Russian soldiers get killed, he can and will hire or draft more. But equipment is much more difficult to replace, especially that having components that in the past were manufactured by other countries and imported into Russia. There may come a point in the war at which Russian infantry only have small arms. What will Putin do then?
Loose
use nukes, war over.
Hahahaha you believe in your bull...?
@@fnayr00 🇺🇸 🇺🇦
What you said about Putin not valuing life, you should turn around and say that same thing for presidents and premiers of the countries under NATO, with long playlist of destroying countries, killing civilians all over the world including this engineered conflict in Ukraine.
Getting rid of Putin is a real possibility. Much of the world would benefit from that option being exercised.
@Anonymous Bosch Trade did not keep Saddam Hussein from receiving his due. Putin is locking himself to a similar ending.
In my life many times there were people who have told me I can't do something. Each time they were wrong.
territorial_integrity/Ukraine/freedom/DEMOCRACY/independence
the West must pass Jets to the UKR - they fight our war !!!! its not enough just to tell into TV camera that tehy want support the UKR - specially our Chancellor !!! - he should support and not talk about support ! Give them jets and long distance missiles for the HIMARS !!!!!! Slava Ukraini !!!!!
@@april3022 Taking into consideration the military support only, only the USA has gives more than us. USA - 2,44 mld €, Poland 1,8 mld €, Germany 0,29 mld €. I do not support my government at all, but this is the only thing I supported them with - helping Ukraine. Yes, taking into consideration the fact that Germany is one of the richest world economies, definitely your government should be more generous. Here there is no place for greediness. It's all too harmful and serious... Today you want to save a penny, tomorrow you have no roof over your head. Take good care!
@@eternal_ecstasy_77 As a German I can hate on our Goverment nonstop. For me it is a red line through almost all topics. Germany could do a lot more for Ukraine(millitary support) but the goverment constelation is about the worst it could be considering this topic. But your logic is flawed. Just because Germany has the 4th biggest economy in the world does not mean they have 4th biggest Millitary in the world. If you actually look at the numbers of support to ukraine and not just weapons you get a diffrent picture
@@steffenlib1382 ….. supporting the military is not only sending weapons…. supporting the military is also sending money to Ukraine for this purpose…. Even private people can do that, not only governments. For example, the National Bank of Ukraine has opened a special fundraising account to support the Armed Forces of Ukraine. I have supported them. I have also advertised the website in my social accounts. Also, there are separate fundraisings organized too. In this way Lithuanians have bought a new Bayraktar for Ukraine. Now, we are collecting money for the same purpose in Poland too. There are 9 days left to collect the full sum of 22,5 mln ZŁ - we will do it. The rest of the words used in your reply is gonna be ignored as I don’t have time for any kind of trash talking.
@@eternal_ecstasy_77 via OECD Germany is the 3 highest payer considering Ukraine behind US and EU. EU payment comming from all 27 countries with by far the biggest chunk of money again is from Germany. Trash talking would not help you since I would simply back it up with facts. As for fundraising I agree with you 100%. We all should do as much as possible to help.
Finally, someone who doesn't have his head buried up his behind.
So you germany who refuse hand weopons to ucranians call their offensive a fantasy? What a poor words to describe other,s strugle
Incredible !
It is called realism...the west will not go to war with Russia as it would be WW3 and Ukraine will not be able to defeat the Russians because of the resources Russia has.
“Not a inch of territory, fight till control is fully restored” - that’s the official position of the Ukrainian government.
At this point they are fighting with their own people, I mean own sepretist people.
Yep. But not in some blind strategy less charge today. They understand Russia and Russia's game (lots of the best military men in the USSR were Ukrainian. Shoot, lots of the officers today were Ukrainian).
theyre losing more than an inch everyday
@@michaelangelo5580 Russia has increased the territory it controls in Ukraine by a mere 0.3% in June.
@@btrswtluvltr You have to consider that it is the biggest country in Europe after Russia itself. Those 0,3% mark extremely important positions that were basically reinforced for 8 years straight.
You are having the best troupes concentrated there - if they manage to overrun them, the rest of Ukraine is much worse protected and has more dispersed troupes.
Was that a dis at the end%
Russia - Plenty of ammo -- Step in that hose - and see the result
Retaking lost areas of Ukraine will be a daunting task, but there are some point that I do not think are accurate. Ukraine is not really outnumbered in terms of infantry. Both Russia and Ukraine have taken terrible losses. Ukraine has mobilized and Russia has not. If Ukraine can hold then it becomes feasible that, over time, they can effectively counterattack. Needless to say - not at all guaranteed to happen.
The conflict also has nothing to do with Ukraine's economy. It has to do with the west's will to prop up Ukraine. The west has many times the economic power of Russia. As long as we are willing to suffer some economic pain then we can keep Ukraine going. Once again - not at all guaranteed to happen.
Ukraine is outnumbered in terms of artillery. Recent attacks on Russian supply depots show promise, but let's not get too optimistic. if we can get enough effective counter battery capability into Ukraine's hands, if Ukraine can hold until that happens, if Russia does not declare war and fully mobilize - Ukraine can turn it around. Concede these are all big ifs.
From the Russian side, the "ifs" are just as big. If Russia can keep it's logistics capability in place. If Russia can replace depleted units. If Russia never tires of the steady stream of body bags coming home (on this one I suspect that Russia will be fine).
We are not close to the end of this.
We all know it started with the illegal removal of president in '14. Now Zelinsk is already using Himars against Kherson region including civilians
I would say your take on the situation is far more convincing than the MIT guy. There are lots of holes in his presentation. Ukrainians will be able to do a lot - as long as they get what they need from the West. As soon as the West gets convinced that Ukraine cannot win, it will make it a reality. It will become a self-fulfilling prophecy.
This is why I think the kind of journalism and analysis as presented in this video can be harmful. But well, there is more harmful journalism than presented in this piece. Price of democracy, I guess
On the last point I believe I heard that Russians carry with them portable crematories. From the psych-ops angle it's different for the family to receive ashes of your son, brother, husband and actually burying them
Made some very valid point. I agree Russia has some losses but not close to wats been said by ukraine or the west reasons why dey not mobilising. Russia is fighting this war in a very comfortable way, using around 10% of their military power in this special military operation shows they ve a long way to go
When I hear about capitulation by the western due to the “reality” on the ground .. then why do we have borders? We are to live in a world where “might makes right!” .. I get we already do … Israel with Palestine, China with Hong Kong, are examples that are ongoing right now along with Russia and Ukraine .. it’s unfortunate that those losing their life can’t be the leaders or elites who direct this carnage
Why does Barry Posen sound so uneducated about militaries?
because he's a political science professor?
He's not a military expert. He's an expert in political science. I'm sure next week he'll be giving his opinion on the feasibility of a Mars base by 2030.
I disagree that Putin has such an unquestioned grasp over Russia.
He's actually holding on by a thread. That's why he can't stop in Ukraine.
I feel like the main problem with Ukraine and the weapons is that their country was stuck with weapons from the cold war and training them for newer weapons take time.
On top of the fact that moving a large amount of weapons is not an easy thing.
But it's seem that every new weapon they get, out right puts Russia weapons to shame.
Makes it seem like Russia won't be able to stand against Ukraine if they will get all the weapons they asked for unless they will declare a total war and be willing to pretty much grind their own army to dust in the process.
Never going to happen bud ..... Russia has Ukraine running backwards ..... how are you going to stop that ?
On 21 March 2022, Aotearoa New Zealand announced a $5 million contribution including a payment to the NATO Trust Fund for Ukraine which provides fuel, military rations, communications and military first aid kits to support Ukraine.
The current rate of weapons supplies to Ukraine isn't sufficient to have meaningful impact on the battleground. Furthermore, the prospects of increasing these shipments are diminishing. Ukraine's 'wish list' is exactly that - just a hypothetical number of needed weapons while in reality there's not much to be sent to them. Nevertheless, Russia will be forced to mobilize more troops because the point where they won't be able to continue with current manpower is closing.
Ukraines main problem is corruption. Over 200k of their soldiers have disappeared since the war started. American generals are convinced that those 200k never existed and their salaries have been stolen by officers(exactly the same thing happened in Afghanistan). Also NLAWs, Javelins and Caesar artillery have all been sold to the Russians by Ukrainians. Keep in mind about a 1/3 of Ukrainians consider themselves Russians.
Terrible images about the Ukrainian war are on my channel.
The Russians had good ammo. Before the Ukrainians took out 11 ammunition depots with HIMARS. Lol
The Ukrainians will figure it out I know they will they are strong willed and love their country wouldn’t we be if somebody invaded the USA come on? Seriously?
Ukraine is finished. No way to survive. Anybody saying differently , is a fool or lying.
What would America do if Mexico become a military ally of China and Russia, welcomed their military bases and was talking about having nuclear weapons? A genuine question.
@@northernlights6984 Or Cuba
If the 'somebody' had an army four times the size of the US Army idk
@@JerryMetal 🤣
Where is the country trying to push both parties to a settlement. The US clearly supports as long of a war as possible, but someone needs to step up as the world leader.
Look at Finland, the winter war and its aftermath....
The problem is not enough heavy weapons plus the fact Ukraine is fighting with one arm tied to its back,Russia is the invader, ndcfires Rockets and missles as it wants , yet Ukraine is not given missles and rockets that might reach borders within Russia.
Currently himars systems are delivered on condition not to hit anything in Russia territory. I hope this restriction will get lifted later. After all these rockets are aimed at Russian military targets, not on civilian buildings.
💩lensky
Hit Russia then you will see he'll. Russia knows where Ukrainian parliament and Zelensky house is but has been choosing not to strike those. Watch out
@@slawomirozdoba4605 Ukraine is shelling civilians in Donetsk and already shelled civilians in Belgorod.
Russia can declare war and suddenly millions of Russian troops will show up.
I think I will trust in military experts over a political expert when it comes to analyzing the war, he is in no way qualified to analyze it.
He's not a political expert, he's a professor at MIT.
any alliance whose purpose is not to fight wars is deemed senseless and useless
Russia: We completely control town x!
Ukraine: Great! We will shell every square inch of town x with no one but your people in it. Taking and holding territory are two different things.
Defense is usually easer than offense. Hope it goes according to plan . Victoria to the warriors of Ukraine
no, defending a captured territory is more difficult than taking it if the resident population is hostile
Ukraine is fighting the just war, i hope justice will wi7in the end
When Russia completes taking over the Donbass they will be on the defensive side. Ukraine is good at defense but there attack is weak look at Kherson in the south they keep trying to take it back but they get pushed back
@@skromee they need to fight hard and just keep pushing the Russians
@@jnash158 Russia has no intention of occupying Ukraine permanently.
I'm very wary of what any academic says. He makes some valid points but underestimates the effect of sanctions big time. Income from gas sales to Europe is dropping every month. Russia has to sell oil to both India and China at a big discount. If we have a global recession the price of oil will drop further. Russia's war income is shrinking daily as the cost of this war mounts. Russians will be feeling the pinch more and more as time goes on. Ukraine just has to hang in there until they have the resources to mount a decisive attack.
If Russia feels the pinch Ukraine feels it 100 times harder . The ruble is at a 7 year high . Inflation. And gas prices in the west and North America are brutal . Don’t underestimate Russia they have been preparing for this for years . Ukraine is done for
Even ignoring the discounts, the absurdly high price for oil still makes it highly profitable for Russia to do so
"Don't believe those who try to frighten you with Russia and who scream that other regions will follow after Crimea," said Putin on Tuesday, going some way to allaying those fears. "We do not want a partition of Ukraine. We do not need this." The Guardian March 18 2014. Ukraine tried appeasing Putin in 2014, that got them to here. They aren't going to go for it a second time.
@@make2285 Ruble being at a high is bad, it means less income from resource sales, lol.
@Anonymous Bosch They have removed almost none of the currency controls, it's still entirely controlled on who trades and how.
Joined May 30, 2022
Ukraine needs a lot of long range artillery and Himars. They need hundreds of them.
Germany needs to start helping Ukraine rather than russia
The good Professor says to negotiate. But fails to say who they can negotiate with that they can trust. I think Ukraine realizes that ceding land for peace didn't work in 2014 & it won't work now. If he were to watch 'Russian-on-the-street' interviews he would realize Russians know they are mistrusted at best. Hated & vilified at worst. Thinking like Neville Chamberlain might work in some academic exercise. But realist know better. Ukraine may want to negotiate after becoming war weary. But that will be up to them. And I suspect that is far in the future.
Negotiate = Unconditional surrender
That's not the view point of the professor, he said he was pessimistic that negotiation can bring peace. As long as Ukraine tilts towards Europe and Russia wants to oppose it, the war will continue.
Odd a poltiical scientist talks so heavily about military matters. The situation inside Russia as a war of attrition continues is unknown. Putin's retention of power may not last past some series of severe Rusian defeats. So how do we make that happen?
Bolster the eastern flank of nato heavily and flex heavily to allow a dispersion of militias to their wester front whilst supplying Ukraine with weapons and ammo. This will thin their military and distract. Putin has a big country and lots of resources but is spending his mentions faster than he can handle. If the Ukrainians can continue to hold with more weapons and a northern distraction they could definitely speed up the exhaustion of the Russian military.
@@btownballer27 You have been saying this since February but Russia gets only stronger and stronger.
@@mosesturyahabwe6239 Have you not noticed that there is no Kiyv, Sumy or Tschernihiw front anymore, that Charkiw doesnt get shot at each day, and that Mykolajiw is still in Ukrainian hands? Kyiv, Sumy, Kharkiv, Chernihiv, etc all had large areas of land occupied that were recovered. That the Russian taken 20% includes Crimea and the other already occupied parts of Ukraine from 2014?
@@btownballer27 and, if nato's flex doesn't work? invade russia?
@@btrswtluvltr One step at a time, Russia will get all they planned to do mark my words! Nato is already divided because of this war, and winter is not yet, many pro Ukraine politicians will follow Boris Johnson...
The point is not to "defeat" Russia, the point is to destroy Russias War economy to the point that they would rethink their approach in this war and just give up.
The Russian economy is only getting stronger 😂😂
@@rubik8453 im not talking about Russias economy, i' m talking about its war economy, how it manage its military hardware, its ammunitions, its troops, and so far they are expending more resources in this war than anticipated and pretty soon will run out compared to Ukraine who is managing their resources pretty well.
Anyways, all data indicates that Russias economy contradicts your statements.
@@lostlogic6911 Ukraine managing resources well??? Where? What resources? they are on full donations from the USA. the whole army and government. They cut off all other spending like medical care, education, etc. The inflation is skyrocketting, the economy is in deep collapse - thats what is happenning
Hearing about this in the news feels so out of time its like this is happening in a whole different time than 2022, It is like watching a documentary about WW2.
Ukrayina maye povernuty svoyu zemlyu. Slava Ukraini!
finally, DW actually got a competent guest and didn't CUT THEM SHORT!
hi there Vladolf Putler ZZZombie bot
another orc bot...
As long as Ukraine can field an army the west will supply it. Id say that’s pretty much baked in by now. Just how long it takes for Russia to understand what that actually means is anyone’s guess but right now peace talks/negotiations are unlikely and when they do commence, as hopefully they must, how will we ever be able to trust Putin?
Terrible images about the Ukrainian war are on my channel.
@@lani6647 you have a peculiar notion of fraternal relationships as it must include stealing land and inflicting horrific war crimes.
A deaftist who doesn´t know anything about the military prowess of Ukraine. It´s basically four months into this war and Russia has nothing to show for it other than small towns in the east of the country.
Yep
🇺🇸🤝🇺🇦💪🏻💪🏻can’t stop won’t stop
Zelen💩sky
Yes.. Because those who die everyday there are not Americans.. And for American eyes, it's money.. C'mon Brandon's grandsons, don't stop.. Let's fight until the last Ukrainian
Macron : "We must not humiliate Russia"
I hope Ukraine take it easy.
So far , so good .
All of this depends on? The western nations sending weapons to Ukraine to level up that playing field. So help Ukraine out and send more weapons. Pretty simple.......
Incredible! A realistic and smart guy in American side!
Nothing realistic and smart was said. There is just no fight in him, will allow a coward, a liar and a thief to steal all he has. He should be a Russian citizen, his trait is the same.
For real. So much disinformation from western media about the situation. If you follow independent media you get a way better picture. I’d rather here the truth than hear what sounds good
lol 😂 😮😅
The whole point of a counter offensive is that it’s a SECRET!!!
Their strategy is still a secret
You cannot realisticly keep a secret of this magnitude. Either way you dont even need to know it, Ukrainians always said that they aim to reclaim entire Ukraine teritory.
What a negative Nellie. This man has certainly never fought in combat a day in his life.
Is this really from 11/07? Posen seems to have overlooked the impact of HIMARS that we have seen in the last week. That is changing the artillery situation. He should at least have addressed this issue.