💝Please don't forget to like and subscribe if you appreciate what I do! 📌Affiliate links (I get a commission if you register): • Try Seeking Alpha Premium for free for 7 days and get a $25 discount on the annual plan: www.seekingalpha.link/3LPDKC1/2QZRGT/ • Get up to 15 free stocks worth between $2 - $2,000 each and up to 8.1% APY on idle cash for 3 months with moomoo: j.moomoo.com/01bx2U (May 29 - September 30, limited time exclusive, T&C Apply) • For Europe/Australia - Join me on eToro: med.etoro.com/B19645_A122700_TClick_SInvesting_With_Andrew.aspx #advert. eToro is a multi-asset investment platform. The value of your investments may go up or down. Your capital is at risk. Here is a new Arcadium Lithium plc (NYSE: ALTM) stock analysis. As always, we go through their financials, latest earnings report, risk-reward and an overview of the lithium market, including companies like SQM and Albemarle before going through a valuation and my price targets and conclusions!
Great Analysis Andrew. I agree on 90% of the points - there is just one I want to argue - the risk of replacing lithium for batteries in the next 10 years is very very low. Solid state batteries (for examaple those made by Samsung) also use lithium anode. Sodium batteries are inferior in energy density. There are superior technologies in development, but once they emerge it will take at least a decade for it to standardize, develop and ramp up the manufactoring processes to a level where it is comparable to li-ion batteries which are mature. It took lithium batteries many decades to become a standard, it will take the next trchnology at least one decade to become feasible.
Thank you for the comment! It's just very hard to predict this with technology. Lithium is indeed one of the potential elements that can be used in SSBs, but others are tested as well. To be honest, my main "fear" is sodium batteries, for now. Each has its upside and downside though. But yes, whatever it is, it will take years to see a replacement even after it’s discovered. However, the lithium market might react in anticipation of that. It will also depend on EVs, which seem to be more and more uncertain now 🤔
@@Investing_With_Andrew Na-Ion batteries are already used in products where energy density and/or performance is not that critical. But in most applications lithium is still superior and probably will be for the foreseeable future. Sodium batteries had a price advantage of aronud 20-30% when the price of lithium was very high... But now even that is questionable, having in mind the scale at which Li-ion ones are produced. When they ramp up Na-Ion battery production they will be good for stationary storage and lower end city cars and probably take up to 10-15% of the market, hardly more. Solid state batteries are indeed very promising in terms of performance, but still very expensive.
For me personally, Arcadium as an investment at these prices is a no-brainer for a long term minded investor. The demand will definitely ramp up in by the end of the year and we'll see a steady rise in 2025. If you look at their top institutional investors, you see Blackrock, Vanguard, etc. and also insider buying.
I don’t think we can predict it over such short-term periods. Long-term is likely going to grow, but next few months/years are too uncertain with everything going on in the market with EVs, interest rates, etc. 👍
@@Investing_With_Andrew Indeed, short term predictions about stock moves are a hit or miss. I was more referring to the tendencies in the EV industry - I've been following all of the major EV manufacturers (TESLA / BYD / XPENG / LI AUTO, etc.) and they are all showing Q2Q imrpovements in deliveries. Rate cuts are almost certain at this point.... Also there are huge developments in the humanoid robot department, some of them already starting to sell products.... Call me an optimist, but 2025 to me looks like it's going to be fun.😄
Great video as always Andrew, lithium companies are certainly interesting at these prices, but I still see a lot of uncertainty and the CEO of Sqm in the last earnings conference call said that lithium prices will still be low at least for the rest of the year, we are still in a low phase of the cycle in my opinion and for now there are no major signs of recovery. In general with all the companies related to raw materials I still see a lot of uncertainty related to the macroeconomic environment, and I still don't find the right opportunity to make an entry into one of these companies. What do you think Andrew?
Thank you! I think Arcadium's CEO said something similar. Most of them probably expect something like this. For me, I got used to go for a "see good value? Buy it and develop later" approach especially after the brief pandemic crash. I like this price (haven’t bought yet) and I would probably regret if it goes up without me buying. If it then falls more as the cycle reaches a bottom, I'd continue to develop it. As Arcadium's CEO also said, all the downturn, losses, projects being delayed, etc. will probably lead to positive effects on the other side of the cycle, as it’s normal with commodities. Rate cuts could be a potential catalyst for EVs and lithium, by the way. What do you think? 🤔
Yes, certainly the cut in interest rates could favor a revival of the entire sector, but what I don't like is how these companies also managed the latest lithium boom, flooding the market with lithium and thus creating an oversupply that caused the collapse prices, one thing I've also noticed, especially with Albemarle, is making overly optimistic forecasts regarding production etc. Which they then promptly don't respect. What if Arcadium was also too optimistic about the production they could achieve? If they really respected what they say, Arcadium is definitely a buy at these prices, but I really think there are too many uncertainties about it
Well, maybe you are right (you most likely are, if we look at numbers), but im already in ALB, so i will stick with it :P haha This is very interesting, but i dont wanna place too much on Lithium already. ALB seems to be recovering lately, any reason why? Or just overall optimism on the stock market bubble? Thanks for your work!
Thank you! I don’t think it’s anything in particular about the company, just market movements. All lithium stocks are up like 5-10% today. Were down similarly yesterday though. Just a normal day lately 😂
By the way, I wanted to ask you what did you like about Albemarle when you bought? I noticed a lot of interest in them, maybe I am missing something. 🤔
@@Investing_With_Andrew Well...i dont really trust SQM that much..there was some stuff with the government that put me off. And ALB is more volatile, which opened oportunities for me to profit in swing trading (which i did in the past ;) )
Good company, but as I understand the lithium market we are still in the oversupply phase. Lithium prices are highly dependent on demand from China, but my expectations is that they continue to go down. Interesting industry, but I would not invest before we can see a clear lack of supply on the horizon.
💝Please don't forget to like and subscribe if you appreciate what I do!
📌Affiliate links (I get a commission if you register):
• Try Seeking Alpha Premium for free for 7 days and get a $25 discount on the annual plan: www.seekingalpha.link/3LPDKC1/2QZRGT/
• Get up to 15 free stocks worth between $2 - $2,000 each and up to 8.1% APY on idle cash for 3 months with moomoo: j.moomoo.com/01bx2U (May 29 - September 30, limited time exclusive, T&C Apply)
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#advert. eToro is a multi-asset investment platform. The value of your investments may go up or down. Your capital is at risk.
Here is a new Arcadium Lithium plc (NYSE: ALTM) stock analysis. As always, we go through their financials, latest earnings report, risk-reward and an overview of the lithium market, including companies like SQM and Albemarle before going through a valuation and my price targets and conclusions!
Great Analysis Andrew. I agree on 90% of the points - there is just one I want to argue - the risk of replacing lithium for batteries in the next 10 years is very very low. Solid state batteries (for examaple those made by Samsung) also use lithium anode. Sodium batteries are inferior in energy density. There are superior technologies in development, but once they emerge it will take at least a decade for it to standardize, develop and ramp up the manufactoring processes to a level where it is comparable to li-ion batteries which are mature. It took lithium batteries many decades to become a standard, it will take the next trchnology at least one decade to become feasible.
Thank you for the comment! It's just very hard to predict this with technology. Lithium is indeed one of the potential elements that can be used in SSBs, but others are tested as well. To be honest, my main "fear" is sodium batteries, for now. Each has its upside and downside though. But yes, whatever it is, it will take years to see a replacement even after it’s discovered. However, the lithium market might react in anticipation of that. It will also depend on EVs, which seem to be more and more uncertain now 🤔
@@Investing_With_Andrew Na-Ion batteries are already used in products where energy density and/or performance is not that critical. But in most applications lithium is still superior and probably will be for the foreseeable future. Sodium batteries had a price advantage of aronud 20-30% when the price of lithium was very high... But now even that is questionable, having in mind the scale at which Li-ion ones are produced. When they ramp up Na-Ion battery production they will be good for stationary storage and lower end city cars and probably take up to 10-15% of the market, hardly more. Solid state batteries are indeed very promising in terms of performance, but still very expensive.
For me personally, Arcadium as an investment at these prices is a no-brainer for a long term minded investor. The demand will definitely ramp up in by the end of the year and we'll see a steady rise in 2025. If you look at their top institutional investors, you see Blackrock, Vanguard, etc. and also insider buying.
True. I'm also likely to buy very soon 😌
Why would demand ramp up by the end of the year? EV sales are plummeting!
I don’t think we can predict it over such short-term periods. Long-term is likely going to grow, but next few months/years are too uncertain with everything going on in the market with EVs, interest rates, etc. 👍
@@Investing_With_Andrew Indeed, short term predictions about stock moves are a hit or miss. I was more referring to the tendencies in the EV industry - I've been following all of the major EV manufacturers (TESLA / BYD / XPENG / LI AUTO, etc.) and they are all showing Q2Q imrpovements in deliveries. Rate cuts are almost certain at this point.... Also there are huge developments in the humanoid robot department, some of them already starting to sell products.... Call me an optimist, but 2025 to me looks like it's going to be fun.😄
Thanks for the information!
Thank you for watching!
Great video as always Andrew, lithium companies are certainly interesting at these prices, but I still see a lot of uncertainty and the CEO of Sqm in the last earnings conference call said that lithium prices will still be low at least for the rest of the year, we are still in a low phase of the cycle in my opinion and for now there are no major signs of recovery. In general with all the companies related to raw materials I still see a lot of uncertainty related to the macroeconomic environment, and I still don't find the right opportunity to make an entry into one of these companies. What do you think Andrew?
Thank you! I think Arcadium's CEO said something similar. Most of them probably expect something like this. For me, I got used to go for a "see good value? Buy it and develop later" approach especially after the brief pandemic crash. I like this price (haven’t bought yet) and I would probably regret if it goes up without me buying. If it then falls more as the cycle reaches a bottom, I'd continue to develop it. As Arcadium's CEO also said, all the downturn, losses, projects being delayed, etc. will probably lead to positive effects on the other side of the cycle, as it’s normal with commodities. Rate cuts could be a potential catalyst for EVs and lithium, by the way. What do you think? 🤔
Yes, certainly the cut in interest rates could favor a revival of the entire sector, but what I don't like is how these companies also managed the latest lithium boom, flooding the market with lithium and thus creating an oversupply that caused the collapse prices, one thing I've also noticed, especially with Albemarle, is making overly optimistic forecasts regarding production etc. Which they then promptly don't respect. What if Arcadium was also too optimistic about the production they could achieve? If they really respected what they say, Arcadium is definitely a buy at these prices, but I really think there are too many uncertainties about it
Well, maybe you are right (you most likely are, if we look at numbers), but im already in ALB, so i will stick with it :P haha
This is very interesting, but i dont wanna place too much on Lithium already.
ALB seems to be recovering lately, any reason why? Or just overall optimism on the stock market bubble?
Thanks for your work!
Thank you! I don’t think it’s anything in particular about the company, just market movements. All lithium stocks are up like 5-10% today. Were down similarly yesterday though. Just a normal day lately 😂
By the way, I wanted to ask you what did you like about Albemarle when you bought? I noticed a lot of interest in them, maybe I am missing something. 🤔
@@Investing_With_Andrew
Well...i dont really trust SQM that much..there was some stuff with the government that put me off.
And ALB is more volatile, which opened oportunities for me to profit in swing trading (which i did in the past ;) )
Good company, but as I understand the lithium market we are still in the oversupply phase. Lithium prices are highly dependent on demand from China, but my expectations is that they continue to go down. Interesting industry, but I would not invest before we can see a clear lack of supply on the horizon.
Thanks for the comment! It could be the case as well 🤔