Intel Stock Analysis Was I Wrong?
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Intel and Boeing are what happens when technology companies replaced their CEOs with MBAs instead of engieers and scientists
let's see if Gelsinger can turn this ship around
I was very happy to see Gelsinger taking over the leadership of Intel, but shortly after he took over there came the red flags. When he did not eliminate the dividend immediately, it was clear that the guy lacked the balls to compete with TSMC. Then he started to uptalk the business and he was continuously disrespectful the competition, like his 2021 Christmas talk about leaving AMD in the rear mirror. Then most of his tech speak is technobabble, I don't care about how many nodes they complete in 5 years, I only care that products are released on time and the benchmarks are good. Yet I still had to listen to the guy announcing early dates and they had to outsource there best products to TSMC because their process is not there.
And let's not talk about the accounting wizardry they have committed in the last few years, like the equity changes and deprecation changes.
The thing is that they should boot Gelsinger and get a proper CEO.
Or replace the CEO with the CFO!!
100% accurate! Also, business schools don't need to exist. They're a money-funnel for universities. Every subject taught at a business school is already more appropriately taught in other colleges.
We used to teach something called "political economy" but we mistakenly segregated it so that people with physics envy can do math on numbers they don't understand. Organizational behavior belongs in psychology and sociology departments. Accounting can be taught in liberal arts (maths) departments. It's a giant scam to convince non-technical people they deserve their high salaries. They don't.
And yes, I've taught at business schools.
It's been some time since Gelsinger took office. Not seeing it as the most important aspect
It will take him 10 years if he can hang on that long and they're already burning through billions and have substandard management.
Jimmy,
Takes a man to accept their mistake. Kudos!!
I bought a few shares at 45, years ago but loaded up at 20 bucks. Intel is a turnaround play. It's not a long-term investment. Once my money is doubled, I'll sell most. I think 1 to 2 percent of portfolio is good enough for INTC.
I don't think it will get to $40 in a forseeable future.
Turnaround play but not a long-term investment? Are you sure? Turnaround plays can take a long time
Are you leveraged?
Jimmy, you bought Intel in 2021 and selling in 2024-that’s a pretty short holding period in my view. I tend to hold stocks for 10+ years. Some of mine have made 5-6x returns, and even then, after I sold, they doubled or tripled again. Lesson learned.
I try to have my holding period for a long time as well, but I need to sell INTC because I feel the investment thesis has changed enough to convince me that the money is better in a new investment. Intel could go higher from here, but in my mind, it’s less about the stock price and more about the long term predictability of their business. There are just too many hurdles in my mind to make me comfortable holding them any longer.
Good that you finally admitted your mistake with INTL. Now it’s time to reevaluate DIS.
Dis will be back to 120 by q2 next year, in my opinion
You seen the new Deadpool?
In my opinion Disney has nothing to do with Intel. Disney is still a strong brand name with no competition around their Parks. And Kids are still growing up watching Disney movies, buying merchandise, etc as we did as kids a few decades ago. And they still produce quality content and quality universe (except Star Wars... They have to give up...). They are not as weak as Intel right now.
Disney is slowly growing since covid. The trend is there for now, although slow.
No idea why you are comparing Intel and Disney, Disney is producing robust cash flows and they are improving.
Intel suffers from the same problem as Disney. Wrong people at the helm.
I think you don't understand the issues if you think that.
I believe TSM cannot continue to be the biggest chip producer due to "geopolitics" and only Intel is well positioned enough to take advantage of this shift to the West. I will be buying Intel.
Apple at this point is a more interesting competitor in CPUs. Apple moved away from Intel, too.
I think Intel succeeds in being a fast CPU, but I don't think that really makes sense for the average desktop/laptop consumer. People just need something affordable at this point. Intel is really for the connoisseur. Qualcomm has the mobile space, etc.
Looking at the big picture, I can't see why you would think Intel is in a better spot for the average consumer right now, nor for the past few years. AMD consistently grew and is affordable. The market has a few big players and it's just better to choose whichever has the best product for each segment in the computing hardware market.
All the controversy with Intel is adding up and just describing overall leadership problems with poor management direction (intel ARC, failed mobile competition using x86, even AMD is competing with server chips like EPYC).
@@retagainez I actually own all the stocks you've mentioned. I'm slowly building an Intel position now. No reason to pick one over the other.
Intel is investing heavily in manufacturing and it definitely takes some time to grow and shine in that area as like Tesla few years back ; also, ASML advanced machine to intel for 1.5nm is definitely a value add in future
@@retagainez To each their own opinion but he mentioned that he does not belive in Tsmc due to the geopoltical situation they are facing. Apple and Qualcomm are only Chip Designers and use tsmc to manufactur their chips if Tsmc gets in trubbel as he belives Apple and Qualcomm would directly be affected
INTC and BABA the bane of my investing portfolio.
I think BABA is different, there is growth, not as high as anticipated, but still growth, and free cash flow is positive with no sign of turning negative any time soon
Completely different - BABA is a great investment!
Your mistake was thinking you can outperform the market. Invest in index funds.
Ditched INTC at $60 and BABA at $270 😎
TSLA is mine
When it bounces up to $50 the end of 2023 everyone had a great chance to exit. You snooze you lose
Jimmy, I appreciate your analysis. Based on your original assumptions, you admit your investment in INTC was a mistake and you plan to sell your shares. Most people don't or can't bring themselves to do this and they lose big. I appreciate that someone of your stature on CZcams admits that the made a bad investment and explains the facts of your position that brought you to this decision. Some comments below act like it is your fault that they made a bad investment and their INTC has lost value. When in the real world, each person is responsible to do their own research and analysis before making an investment. These are people who want to make money off of other people's work, research and time. Your analysis is sound. Others may want to hold their shares while some will sell. Each person needs to know what they want to get from an investment and make sure it stays on track to their expectations. You shared your thoughts and I respect your decision to sell. Everyone else needs to make up their own mind on their research and not just from your video. I look forward to your next video since it is thought provoking, insightful, and gives me an opportunity to compare my thoughts with your thinking / opinion. Keep up the good work Jimmy. All of us have gotten it wrong at one time or another. I'm not saying it is completely wrong. But at this juncture, INTC does not instill confidence with some share holders. Looking forward to your next video. Thanks for all you do too!
Thanks for the kind words! I appreciate it 👍😀
Why Jimmy is among the best finance youtubers out there.
I wasn't aware of that big pause, so it wasn't common knowledge.
Seems like past CEOs committed fraud
Just watched your video discussing AWS86K and I am very excited about this
AWS's journey will be exciting!
lets PUMP this to the sky guys!!
Happy to invest in AWS together!
Thrilled about AWS's potential! Happy to be part of this community and looking forward to gains!
AWS is a great investment choice!
Buy high, sell low
Yes, but this one isn't recovering for at least a generation (20 years). They are behind their competition, don't have a dividend, downsizing their staff (releasing valuable talent). Buying Intel is basically throwing money into a black hole right now.
This is the way.
It’s not what happened, but okay. He is down 36%. More like buy mid high sell low
@@bluezaton Often, a stock bottoms when everyone says things about it like you wrote here. I dont care, I am neither long nor short Intel.
I think now is the moment to but for 20% upside dont wait more then 26-27$
Can't you buy more and average down to get average price closer to current price and sell when stock makes small move up?
Hard to admit mistakes so good job.
There is a lot of risk with Intel because mistakes are so expensive and the business itself is extremely complicated. It's a fools game to try to predict how their fabs are going to perform (it's not within most people's circle of competence).
by the time they build those fabs, the competition already building smaller more advanced chips
The semiconductor industry is far more complex than a complete outsider might imagine.
If you don't understand it, don’t touch it.
The financial data is merely a beginning.
Absolutely, I think you've hit the nail on the head with this comment. Articles and videos have recently come out saying how they massively misunderstood the development of smart phone technology and gpus.
Any tech industry is quite inaccessible until you understand the limitations and difficulties in computing. The big problem is distinguishing companies with great teams and also a profitable business from things that are just fads. Tech is very short lived compared to other businesses.
But this was obvious before, which is why I question this move by Jimmy, surely he knew that before. At least he's honest he sold and he has a diversified portfolio overall that is in the green.
@MagicNash89 I mistakenly thought they could get back in the game faster. But time has proven that to be false, hence the moving on to better opportunities (hopefully) 😀👍
they always say 2026 they should get back on truck..but of course Pat must sell the turn around more close in future for people in GOV and others..I always think about Musk and his delays. I bought more at 20 usd..I will hold it until 2026 if there is delays or another problems I will sell..
AWS86K is still extremely undervalued
AWS is a solid investment!
Totally agree! AWS has huge potential. Can't wait! 🚀
AWS's journey will be exciting!
Feeling good about AWS! Great community and potential.
Excited about AWS! Let's see where this journey takes us!
Any ideas of what happened with its book value? Any shenanigans there???
It takes guts to publicly pivot
Got to sell the bottom. 🤣
I stopped investing in induvial stocks awhile ago. The only individual stock I have now is Berkshire which might as well be an index fund.
There's a few of those stocks available in the global stock market, yes, that are like an index fund. Prosus for emerging market investment comes to mind. There were a few smaller.
Why do you keep your right arm at a 90 degree angle? You good?
And this is why I don't do stock picks - If even Jimmy is selling at a loss once bad news come in. While I know that the rest of Jimmy's portfolio is doing good overall, I do feel this kind of loss selling exposes some big flaws in the initial stock analysis. Which I do think Jimmy mentioned.
Everything Money was pumping Intel while shorting NVIDIA, lol. Nobody is always right, it happens
Technical analysis, sharp insights, and solid strategies are crucial for success in trading. Understanding market trends and making informed decisions can make all the difference. A big shoutout to Loraine Souvenir for her exceptional guidance and support in mastering these essential skills! so glad I started her program.
I've just looked up her full name on my browser and found her webpage without sweat, very much appreciate this
It's unexpected to come across her name here. She understands every beginner’s intention and fix you to a trading course that matches your capacity, she knows her stuff! Her advice has been invaluable to my trading journey. Definitely worth giving a shot!
It's truly refreshing to see a comment about Loraine Souvenir. I've also had the pleasure of working with her for several months after discovering more about her online. She has a knack for simplifying complex issues, whether it's a market surge or decline. Her approach consistently keeps you ahead of the curve. I'd call her a guru, for sure
The beauty of her approach is her dual focus: while she aggressively pursues profit opportunities, she's equally tenacious about shielding investors from potential pitfalls. It's a balance few can achieve.
Nice to see this here. A lot of folks downplay the role of advisors until they’re burned by their own emotions-no offense. I remember last year, I needed a good boost to help my business stay afloat, so I researched licensed advisors and thankfully came across Loraine. She’s helped grow my reserve, despite inflation, from $152k to nearly a 7-figure sum as of today..Her insights and daily siignals are worth following.
You were profitable in your position by March-April. Also, per Bill O'Neill, never let a loss exceed 8%. If it's bigger than 8%, automatically sell.
The story is that when the old founder retires, his replacement is someone who never got his business to grow.
There are three types of people: Fantasists and realists and then the rare type who have realistic visions.
The overall problem is that the USA trains lawyers and not engineers.
Hey Jimmy, would it have helped if you also held an Intel competitor at the same time as a sort of hedge? Say, on a 3:1 or 2:1, so for every 200 dollars invested in Intel, investing 100 dollars into a competitor? What do you think of these "sort of" hedges? Like "hedging" Microsoft stock by owning a bit of Apple stock because you believe that while both are good companies, if one of them goes down the other would benefit from that and offset possible losses that can't really be factored in during analysis? (like shareholders electing bad management)
I also sold Intel taking a big loss...we all make mistakes...you are still the best stock market CZcamsr for me 😉! Thanks for your job
For the record Jimmy, I’m in the hole just as badly as you are. Needless to say an unhappy experience. But given the excellent research you’ve done on Intel, and laying out the total mess they’re in I think I’ll sell my shares and move on. No point in prolonging the misery. BTW, this has been one of your best videos, and you’ve produced a lot of really good stuff over the years I’ve been following your work. Cheers mate 😢
Hey Jimmy, I fully agree with your perspective, I've sold my position in the day they've realeased the earnings...More important than knowing when to start a position is when to jump out....a company that is slipping on their schedule this much means that it is either poorly managed or the original planning was unrealistic, the latter is the same as cheating the shareholders...
Credit for making a videon on it at least
Thank you very much for this very informative video that I found in the recommendations!!!
Your INTC financial analysis was great, where you failed was in your business analysis. INTC is a bad business, with bad management - and worse - bad culture. Even though they changed leadership, it takes more than a good leader to change bad culture. It takes an exceptional leader. And that is rare. Most businesses in this position fail. Some do turn around (see MSFT), but it is the exception, not the rule.
I'm willing to wager that a lot of big tech companies are experiencing terrible culture right now, even MSFT...
@@retagainez And this is where business analysis goes awry. I am not talking about somewhere that is fun to work. I am talking about a culture that moves collectively in one business direction with the right mindset. Satya was able to remove internal political power from the old guard (Windows and Office) and provide political power to those groups and individuals that furthered the goals of the company (Cloud). This takes more than understanding numbers. It requires understanding psychology and incentives.
Biggest value trap of all time? You have to go in with a 10 year horizon, and in that amount of time you have many other picks that will probably blow Intel away, even AMD/Nividia etc. No reason to bet on Intel right now.
Excellent video, ideas are clearly articulated.
For the life of me I cannot understand why the CEO has not been removed.
I really liked your video and honesty
I too bought intel but will hold on since I'm over 50% down. A bad investment on a good company is possible. It's all about timing. I will nit be surprised if Intel falls further down. I will not buy more since no one seems to know when they'll be able to deliver on their promises.
THANKS FOR YOUR HONESTY. I SOLD INTEL AT $37. a few months ago
same, I sold all at 42 and broke even, thank goodness
In regard to ATKR, from Stock Analysis, "Atkore had 4,816 employees as of September 30, 2023. The number of employees increased by 816 or 20.40% compared to the previous year." It is rare for a company to increase their employee head count by such a large percentage (20.4%) unless they were anticipating a large increase in future business.
Why is your camera like 15 fps?
This is a great point, I just loaded up the video and I have no idea how that happened. I’ll have to check the camera settings. Thanks for the heads up
Hahaha I noticed it too.i looked glitchy as heck.
Yea, it’s terrible, I don’t know how I didn’t notice it when i recorded it. I’m sorry about that 😬 I’ll sort it out by the next video
Jimmy , if you tell us what equipment and process you’re using maybe we can help. 😊
He paused investing in new cameras.
I dont think people appreciate quite what happened with the carry trade unwind. All those sellers had buyers. Who bought? A bunch of folks who were previously short selling the market. There isnt a massive level lower where big money will sell barring a black swan event so that is basically the bottom. It may sound odd but now that those short sellers spent a bunch of capital buying those shares we are likely priced below where most people think we should be. It might take days, weeks, or possibly months before we have another big reversal. Barring major recession issues popping up that was the bottom. If we do hit a recession I could see us going back to April lows, but lower than that is likely off the table for the market as a whole.....currently I've been engaged in active trading, which is generally safer, allowing investors to weather market volatility and also managed to grow a nest egg of around 2.3Bitcoin to a decent 24Bitcoin....I'm especially grateful to Linda Wilburn’s, whose deep expertise and traditional trading acumen have been invaluable in this challenging, ever-evolving financial landscape.
She's often interacts on Telegrams, using the user-name.
@Lindawilburn
Always backup your trading with a good strategy.
Nice, I was just hodling before I found Wilburn. In my opinion she is the very best out there.
The same high-yield potential exists in both bullish and bearish situations; what matters is how information and technique are used. Not neglecting professional advice.
I'll just sell call Options on my shares until they get called away from me. Tax loss harvest.
INTC is hot garbage right now, in 10 years who knows it might recover. You are in for a long wait and a bumpy ride.
I'm glad I sold INTC when I was still up a little.
What about BABA? How are its prospects?
Intel is terrible 😂 bail bro
Great effort in your stock picking. Over time it will pay off.
buying at its current share price(~$20) seems like a good idea given once intel announces any sort of consistent on track progress with these factories, long term investors will price it in early(not 5 years from now) leading to an increase in the share prices. and the hope is will these cost cuts their quarterly will start to look better. thoughts?
Thanks for the sharing and analysis. Intel has slipped downhill over the years due to their complacency and wrong managerial decisions.
why would anyone invest in a business so complicated and that has to invest so much shareholders funds into R&D is absolutely beyond me. Deserve everything you get
You can say the same thing for AMD and Nvidia and those investors are very happy right now.
@@opencase9903 Indeed. There is a limit to hardware, at least traditional von neumann architecture.
*I KNOW NOTHING ABOUT TRADING/ INVESTING AND I'M KEEN ON GETTING STARTED . WHAT ARE SOME STRATEGIES TO GET STARTED WITH ?*
The 5 year return on Intel is negative - 40%
Thank you for this video. It takes guts to try to understand a mistake and then post it online.
Jimmy, I your video since last 2-3 years. Appreciate your work. Also, requesting you to make video for those stocks where positional or swing trade opportunities arise. Thank you.
This is my worst stock to buy. Thought it was a value play, but they mess it up real good.
Crazy and scary how quick a stock can shift
Great video! First of yours I've seen.
I'm in agreement on Intel. I can't do a DCF on the company because I am simply not sure where their Foundry business will be in 5 years. The future is cloudy and as such, I can't value it.
Same decision as you. I sold all after earning reports
I sold at the top. Using Fibonacci and Elliott. I don't like such in DEBT companies. I would prefer that money in PATH. Greetings.
Switch into TSMC. The IDM business model just doesn’t work if you are not the leading edge producer. Commingling design and manufacturing is risky and inefficient.
Great video thanks for your admission and courage
I appreciate the kind words!!!
You work for 40yrs to have $1m in your retirement, meanwhile some people are putting just $10k in a bit.. coin for just few months and now they are multi millionaires.
You trade as well??
After I raised up to 325k trading with her miss Susan Marie Alessio I bought a new House and a car here in the states 🇱🇷🇱🇷also paid for my son's surgery (Oscar). Glory to God.shalom..
I have heard a lot of wonderful things about miss Susan Marie Alessio on the news but didn't believe it untill now. I'm definitely trying her out✊
So nice to see Susan Marie Alessio talked about here,her good works are speaking already, and like wide fire she's spreading
She's also my portfolio manager!! Though I started with as low as $8,500 actually because it was my first time and it went on successful, she's I a great personality in the state.
It is trading below it’s book value - I think you can find a better price to exit your position
I actually had a similar average to you and I came to the same conclusion a couple of weeks ago. Sold at $20 during the drop and moved that back into more Nvidia at $90.80.
Made all my losses back in one go so I got lucky but yeah, I’ll be back to Intel in 3-4 years. Until then I see the stock dropping further. Cheers!
I wonder if intel stock responds very well to interest rates going down. They have a fair amount of debt. Companys that resond betterr to interest rate changes are highly indebted, financials, companys that pay dividends and bonds.
INTC just jumped 10% on restructuring plans news, will jump higher soon if they split it up
I've bought some now because I think they're gonna pull an AMD in the long run. They just need to survive now until their investments (that they've pushed back too far and then had to cash all at once) start to pay off. Same as AMD after 2006 they might be worth +1000% in 5-15 years.
Yes, you were. It is hard for ITNC to come back from here
Yes.
Sold all my Intel shares about 3 years ago & immediately used the funds to purchase Nvidia & AMD shares. One of the best investment decision I ever made.😂
you didn't mention the fact that intel 10nm is equivalent to tsmc 7nm. this is an important factor
So many good stocks out there. You might make money on cigar butts… but the opportunity cost will be higher… IMHO
Intel now is Nokia in the past
Thumbs up! Excellent insight! It is good to go away with loss sometimes! Semiconductor industry is very complex industry… intel clearly lost its path..as customer why should i buy intel chips unless it offers at lower price and with higher efficiency… would intel achieve in next few years… i doubt 😊
The thing is, Intel stopped giving dividend, which caused a lot of dividend ETF or investors to leave the company. It is undervalued.
What happened to "be greedy when everyone's fearful", Jimmy?
very good analysis, keep it up. Please make video about Nvda stock is so up and down.
Sven Carlin also mentioned they may have been doing some accounting gymnastics such as extending the useful life of their PPE - Taken out of context i know this is a standard accounting practice. However, intel has been doing poorly over the years.
Yes
The crazy part is intel has been in business longer than most chips companies
That's why we can never make investment decision based on public news.
Sell the blue stock buy the green one
I closed out my entire stake in $INTC in the $40s for a very good profit. There's too much uncertainty and accounting shenanigans as well. I do however continue to follow the stock from a swing trading perspective, as I expect quite a bit of volatility to come.
When you see "Over promising and under delivering" you should run your money and not look back.
Best companies are those who deliver more than promised.
I like Intel and want to want to buy it. It just feels too much like IBM in the sense when they were on top they looked unbeatable. Still a great company and great dividend and all that. But you'd have done phenomenally better just putting your money to work in an index fund. I hope I'm wrong on intel, and if so I do own them in an s&p index fund as well as a chip index fund so I'll still get a piece of their turnaround.
I'm pulling for ya Jimmy (and for a great American company)
Thankyou for your input and your honest opinion and your AMAZING analysis
I actually bought the stock recently at $21.40
And in my opinion yes the investment is risky but i think INTC can bounce back and the stock have done massive discount for me
I will sit and see how it plays for me
Go with avgo or tsm
9% up today
Jimmy your a legend.
So the only part you are looking at is the foundry part? What about the software en design parts? Intel has been losing marketshare. Not because of their foundry part, but because of their design part. On top of that, the marketing from Intel has never been worse.
Saying all that. I can see a way for smart people in Intel to turn the ship around in 5 years. Just like what AMD did.
Would this be the point all investors think they do but never time? the actual point to be greedy when others are fearful? everybody now even the Intel believers have abandoned the ship, makes me wonder. a Take over a sell off a slight positive news could bring a good return?
if only he would have bought literally every other chips making company
I appreciate, that you are honest!
Jimmy! Stop recording at 15fps!! 30 MINIMUM!!!
based on my price action analysis, the next leg down target is 8.70.
Yeah, holding this bag must be painful 😢 but subsidies spent with IRA and protectionism from Trump administration may bring this stock to life. I would really fire the Project execution management, though. to have multiple years of delay in multiple locations is incompetence, not just a bad luck.
I keep getting crushed on Intel. As soon as it goes back up a bit to breakeven, im out for good
Sadly, I came to the same conclusion recently. I sold my position in INTC because the future looks poor for the company. Perhaps they'll recover, but it looks like a recovery will be several years away at best.
Sell any company which has a financial CEO instead of a technical CEO, for eg: Boeing
Coinbase, OKX and Binance will list AWS86K very soon. We do not have much time left
Amazing what happens when you can no longer illegally use your monopoly power to hold down the competitors with better chips
Valuation process was right, but it was based on wrong numbers by analysts.
Thanks, Jimmy. It was a good analysis and presentation . I think that I better understand INTC's challenges and potential.