The Math Behind the Weirdest Interaction in Melee
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- čas přidán 7. 09. 2024
- You are statistically more likely to be drafted into the NBA than you are to have this happen to you in Super Smash Bros. Melee. In this episode of Frame Data, we run the numbers.
YES I KNOW WALLY PULLED THREE IN A ROW BUT WE ALREADY STARTED WORKING ON THIS ONE GOSH
✂️ Edited by KELLZ ► / sadkellz
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In Wally's set vs Zain at SSC this year, he pulled 3 stitches in a row in game 2 which is a .005% chance of happening using these metrics
DESCRIPTION
@@turndownforwalt hey walt did you hear that wally pulled 3 stitches in a row vs zain at super smash con 2022?
0.0005% actually (((127/128)*(1/58))^3)*100)
@@turndownforwalt hey walt fun fact don’t know if you knew but during wally’s set vs zain at smash con 2022 he actually pulled 3 stitches in a row
@@Forshap wallystitch -_-
Wally: pulls 3 stiches is a row
Walt, almost done with this video: am i a joke to you?
wally:
walt:
wally:
walt:
😁
The odds of pulling two stitches in a row as the only two down bs in your life are .03%. but peach players pull dozens of turnips a day, so they get way more shots at that unlikely event. A human lifetime has a 0.03% chance of producing an NBA star - but you only get one shot
.03 and 0.03
One opportunity
I generally think of the probability of multiple consecutive events occurring as ignoring the first instance of that event if there's no cap to how many reattempts that can be made. The question here would boil down to, "the probability of Armada pulling a second stitchface after his first one is ~1.71%," with that possibility instantiating every time he pulls a "first" stitchface.
the production quality of this video WOW one of the best on ur channel imo
KELLZ snapped
thought this was gonna be about the triple stich pull wally got on zain at smash con lolol
DOES NO ONE READ THE DESCRIPTION
@@turndownforwalt Not before clicking on the video they don't
@@turndownforwalt description is for for nerds :^)
hey walt, wally pulled 3 stitches in a row vs zain at SSC
walt did anyone tell you that yet
you should put something in the description walt
Super glad that you included the caveat about the number of pairs of stitch pulls in the match! It's nice to see some statistics properly contextualised.
Here's something else - given the number of Melee matches at high level recorded, and the number of Peach matches, it might actually be more unlikely that we would not have seen something like this at some point. Over many trials, unexpected things are actually quite likely to happen, this is an example of the "look elsewhere" effect. It's similar to the fact that sharing a birthday with someone is 1/365, but the probability that two people in a room of 30 people share a birthday is over 50%.
Furthermore, since one of the best players ever happened to play Peach, we have lots of recorded sets from Armada. Because most recordings of Peach games are Armada games, it is probable that when this event occurs in a recording, it occurs during an Armada game.
And, seeing as Armada tends to make it through brackets, and more semi-finals and finals are recorded, it's more likely than not that such an occurrence in an Armada game is against a top opponent like Mango!
So, if you knew that enough Peach games had been recorded that we we were likely to see this game, you could argue that you could have predicted that it would be in a set involving Armada, in a high level set!
I'd love to see a more in-depth statistical analysis involving the number of recorded sets you need such that this is likely to happen. And then, given that it has happened, a conditional analysis on the number of Peach games played, the number of recorded sets, which fraction of those include Armada, and which fraction of those include Armada against another top player. It feels like these things actually conspire to be quite likely somehow!
Wish I had the free time to do the calculation! I'll see if I can back-of-the-envelope it at some point.
I read the description but the timing is just funny. That wally set was insane. I have pulled stitch, stitch, bomb once in my life just playing with friends. Seeing triple stitch in a tournament set in top 32 was crazy. But I do have to agree the armada double pull was way more impressive because he was able to use it.
.03% of people being drafted into the NBA doesn't imply that I personally have a .03% chance - It's much lower than that for me lol
Does the instant taunt after shield break have any influence on the 2nd stitch pull or do we chalk it up to sweg
"RNG manip."
The item you get is purely based on a timer running in the background (not related to the in-game timer). You'll see TAS's 'manipulating RNG' but they're really just waiting for the right frame to start the item pull they need. There's nothing you can do in real time to make your odds better of getting a good item, except for pulling more turnips.
Actually if you pull a turnip at exactly that time every time in the RNG seed that they were using it will be a stitch and Armada can see the game code so he knew he had to waste exactly the frames of a taunt before he pulled to get the stitch.
This editing is nuts - The work on this channel is nothing short of a chef's kiss
I was sitting right next to Fuzzyness when that moment happened. My ears bled and my mind was blown.
Peach Mains out here feeling like the Harlem Globetrotters with all of us having double stitch experiences
the editing for these videos is insane. great work as always!
Wally: *Gets 3 stitches in a row vs Zain*
Nobody READS THE DESCRIPTION AHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH
@@turndownforwalt unfortunate timing
You'd have to pull at least 4 stitches before you approach the likelihood of anyone reading the text in the description that's below the Read More fold.
Thanks for continuing to teach me statistics and basic arithmetic through melee. I smoked too much weed and dropped out of school but I still like to imagine I’m really smart for liking this particular video game so this is helpful. Love ya Walt keep up the bangers.
0.03% every time Peach pulls one turnip. If we say a peach pulls 20 turnips a game (randomly picked number that seems pretty median) than the average double stich game happens 0.06% of the time. If we say 2 peaches in top 32 (ssc 2022) they each play an average of 4 games, then a double stich tournament happens .48% of the time. Take into account the amount of major tournaments in a year to be about 22 (2018, before pandemic) then the percentage chance that there is a double stitch in a major tournament in a year is about 10.6%. ESTIMATED
the editing in this went absolutely crazy
Huh, my main takeaway from this is actually that the odds of someone pursuing a basketball career getting drafted in the NBA is higher than I thought. Great video!
Watched the set in person and it was hype. The walle one.
Wow this is a really great breakdown but.... as a triple PHD with a math and stats focus, I can say this is entirely incorrect. You had the start correct, you simply forgot a very important variable!
Armada is sick, it was an exhibition match against Mang0, and he taunted after the shield break. All these variables when put into the context of fate, it was a 100% chance that he would get a second stitch.
READ THE DESCRIPTION BEFORE YOU TYPE “But Wally pulled 3 stiches against zain at SSC”
Dude you gonna need to make an update on this vedeo because of wally XD
YES I READ THE DESCRIPTION
The editing and production work just keeps getting better! Excellent work
So is the odds of the NBA draft based on the amount of humans on the planet or what? IDK where you got the math from...
Now calculate the probability of having a 3 stitch happening during the making of this video lmao
Fun video going over a legendary moment!
Wally is definitely getting into the smash con jv5
Yeah it has happened many times before, because it isn't that unlikely, but it is amazing that it happened in this way.
This is a 7 minute video about a less than 30 second clip from over a decade ago. Beautiful
Why hasn't this been talked about more?? Thank you Walt!
What do you mean? It's one of the most famous Melee clips ever, and everyone talks about how insane it is Armada pulled two stitches.
In the Armada v Mango shield break, you can see that Mango awkwardly drops his shield and reshields. The shield break was definitely escapable. I think the reason Mango does that awkward reshield is that he tried to act out of shield against the first stitch hit, but the hitstun was so strong that Mango missed his act-out-of-shield timing.
God damn. Melee is beautiful. I really hope ultimate players see how much their game has been dumbed down for accessibility and views. if you want true competition, melee is your game.
Or if you want to just have fun too. Way more fun casually than ultimate
I like that last point lol. "But...c'mon" is right. Let's just calculate forever and take every pull ever recorded into account while we're at it lol
hey Walt I read the description but I’m just curious why you didn’t make this video about Wally pul
oh god he's dead
Ok, but imagine if Armada pulled a bob-omb instead of the second stitch
Well time to get drafted in the NBA! Super interesting video, I'm sold!
I know this is gonna sound made up but whatever. BEAST 3 was my first overseas tournament, saw mangoat rocking us in tournament, leffen still banned being Swedish counciled in the kitchen because he turned up "just to get his PSP back from some player"... the lot!
But after that long friendly session that some of us watched in awe (Armada was kicking Mang's ass, who had absolutely destroyed all of us, DBZ moment) I was in the locker room between the big tv room and the kitchen and Armada walks in, looks at me (only person there) "Did you see that shit?" "What, the 4 stock? The general destruction? " "Nah man that DOUBLE STITCH!" We had barely chatted before, barely have since. I still 'member tho.
Only thing I wish this vid talked about was the fact he TAUNTED like he fucking KNEW it was happening . That's some cosmic shit.
Makes sense considering your name itself is a pun ROFL
What up! You makin a Mang0 vid?!?!?
My goodness I haven’t heard anyone say rofl in like 10 years.
@@E-Brightvoid mangoS the fans are watching
Amazing video! Thanks for the melee knowledge, looking forward to the Wally v Zain video!
new frame data? HYPE
a statical anomaly
"For some added real life context..." Proceeds to compare it to SPORTS in a video for nerds
You need to like reupload this with Wallys set vs Zain!!! common now
Turn Ip for Walt
Everyone knows once you pull a stitch once they come more often after. It’s not that crazy. Sick play though.
This is about to be a A BANGER VIDEO LETS FUCKIN GOOOOOOOOOOOO
Edit: it was a fucking banger video once again Walt. Thank you.
2:07
A rarity isn’t an anomaly. I would call this a rarity.
this is amazing
Nice video Walt
the peach panties glimp was on purpose you can not tell me otherwise.... ;P
YO YO WALT VIDEO ESSAY!
Timing D:
That’s amazing
I don't actually understand why the percent is less than getting drafted into the NBA....there's no way you're comparing to your chances of getting drafted while just being part of the population of the world right? Is it out of anyone who plays basketball? Anyone who played basketball in high school in the U.S.? Or what?
Great video
I’m not sure if the final statement about playing the full match makes the double stitch face pull more likely. If we assume these are independent events, the probability the pull occurs in this exact moment should be the same as all other points regardless of the amount of pulls. The odds of it occurring AT ALL (not at that exact moment) does go up with the number of pulls though.
For instance, if I flip a coin and it lands on heads this doesn’t effect the next flip at all. Intuitively, you think it would more likely to be tails but it isn’t. At least, the world of statistics says otherwise.
Love your videos; the edits and clips are super high quality!
Hi! I enjoy your videos, and do not mean to be a wet blanket. Can I ask how you arrived at the probability of 1/3333 for a person to be drafted into the NBA? This would imply the NBA has drafted over a million people.
Anyway, I do enjoy your videos! Not trying to be antagonistic or anything.
Literally just searched "odds of being drafted into the NBA" and took something from a random article -- wasn't meant to be taken seriously!
My brother and law pulled two bombs on me as daisy in ultimate. In a row. I got back to back bomb comboed. Bomb into bomb smh.
Stati(stitch)al works better
Statistitchal
AHHHHHHH
um, ackchyually 🤓--
Damn
Wasn't that a triple stitch tho...
Nice video! Algorithm
I farted
banger
Why isn’t this ledge graph? Isn’t this just what ledge graph is? Good video though.
I hate the title of this video sooo much. Fantastic vid tho
Thank you
How do you even have time to make this content??? This production value is wayyy too high for just one person
Notifgang
first
Finally. Recognition
Hboxscream.mp3