America Needs More Techno-Optimism, with Marc Andreessen and Tyler Cowen
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- čas přidán 5. 09. 2024
- In this fireside chat, a16z Cofounder and General Partner Marc Andreessen sits down with economist, podcaster, and polymath Tyler Cowen to discuss the state of innovation in America, from recent AI advances to growing support for nuclear power. They’ll explain why the future many people claim to want - a better economy, better quality of life, and a safer world - is only possible if America leads.
To learn more about the American Dynamism Summit, visit our website at a16z.com/ad-summit.
Visit the full playlist: bit.ly/3IqWn1W
Love Marc’s perspective!!! Thank you so much for the dose of optimism infused with pragmatism.
Well said, well said!
On our way 👍
I am in my 40's. AI is exciting. And yes I work in cybersecurity, reverse engineering means you don't even need the source code.
Very important!
Marc laying down deep intellectual knowledge, while the moderator is reading cue cards of boring one sentence questions.
What…. Bro that is Tyler fucking Cowen, if you do not know who that is, please read up !
How should we as techno optimists resolve the very valid concerns related to technology? Its difficult to explain away issues related to…
1. Covid vaccine mandates.
2. Forever chemicals in our water.
3. Climate change
4. Social malaise caused by social media
5. Effect of ultra processed foods
All of these are valid concerns with shocking effects on the general population. And finally adding to this that technology has improved average quality of life however most of spoils accrue to the top 1% of society. Not so great.
Marc your public speaking will greatly improve if you remove all the uhhs and umms
Its part of his style now
He's rich enough and done enough that he doesn't have to care
It's a conversational style, don't key on it, key on the meat of his arguments and analysis.
😆
The second law of thermodynamics may be false conventional wisdom. Let's face the possibility of breakeven free energy.
The second law of thermodynamics was imposed on us during Victorian England's scientific and religious cultural fascination with steam engines.
The second law is behind modern refgeration needing electrical energy to compress the refrigerent to force it to release as waste the heat that it has removed from the refrigerator's service interior in the cooling part of the refrigerent's circulation. There is also discarded heat from mechanical friction and electrical resistance. The total released and discarded heat minus the removed heat equals the electrical input balancing this system's energy but this only shows that energy is conserved even if the energy use is unneeded wasteful or harmful.
Refrigeration by the principle that energy is conserved should produce electricity instead of consuming it.
It makes more sense that refrigerators should yield electricity because energy is widely known to change form with no ultimate path of energy gain or loss being found. Therefore any form of fully recyclable energy can be cycled endlessly in any quantity.
In an extreme case senario, full heat recycling, all electric, very isolated underground, undersea, or space communities would be highly survivable with self sufficient EMP resistant LED light banks, automated vertical farms, thaw resistant frozen food storehouses, factories, dwellings, self contained elevators, safe rooms, and horizontal transports.
In a flourishing civillization senario, small self sufficient electric or cooling devices of many kinds and styles like lamps, smartphones, hotplates, water heaters, cooler chests, fans, radios, TVs, cameras, security devices, robot test equipment, scales, transaction terminals, wall clocks, open or ciosed for business luminus signs, power hand tools, ditch diggers, pumps, and personal transports, would be available for immediate use incrementally anywhere as people see fit.
Some equipment groups could be consolidated on local networks.
If a high majority thinks our civilization should geoengineer gigatons or
teratons of carbon dioxide out of our environment, instalations using devices that convert ambient heat into electricity can hypothetically be scaled up do it with a choice of comsequences including many beneficial ones.
Energy sensible refrigerators that absorb heat and yield electricity would complement computers as computing consumes electricity and yields heat. Computing would be free. Chips could have energy recycling built in.
A simple rectifier crystal can, iust short of a replicatable long term demonstration of a powerful prototype, almost certainly filter the random thermal motioren of electrons or discrete positiive charged voids called holes so the electric current flowing in one direction predominates. At low system voltage a filtrate of one polarity predominates only a little but there is always usable electrical power derived from the source, which is Johnson Nyquest thermal electrical noise. This net electrical filtrate can be aggregated in a group of separate diodes in consistent alignment parallel creating widely scalable electrical power. The maximum energy is converted from ambient heat to productive electricity when the electrical load is matched to the array impeadence.
Matched impeadence output (watts) is k (Boltźman's constant), one point three eight x 10^ minus 23, times T (temperature Kelvin) times bandwidth (0 Hz to a natural limit ~2 THz @ 290 K) times rectification halving and nanowatt power level rectification efficiency, times the number of diodes in the array.
For reference, there are a billion cells of 1000 square nanometer area each per square millimeter, 100 billion per square centimeter.
Order is imposed on the random thermal motion of electrons by the structual orderlyness of a diode array made of diodes made within a slab:
-----‐------‐----_____-- Out
🔻🔻🔻🔻
■■■■■■___ + Out
All the P type semiconductor anodes abut a metal conductive plane deposited on the top face of the slab with nonrectifying joins; the N type semiconductor cathodes or common cathode abuts the bottom face. As the polarity filtered electrical energy is exported, the amount of thermal energy in the group of diodes decreases. This group cooling will draw heat in from the surrounding ambient heat at a rate depending on the filtering rate and thermal resistance between the group and ambient gas, liquid, or solid warmer than absolute zero. There is always a lot of ambient heat on our planet, more on equatorial dry desert summer days and less on polar desert winter nights.
Focusing on explaining the electronic behavior of one composition of simple diode, a near flawless crystal of silicon is modified by implanting a small amount of phosphorus (N type conductivity) on one side from a ohmic contact end to a junction where the additive is suddenly and completely changed to boron (P type conductivity) with minimal disturbance of the crystal lattice. The crystal then continues to another ohmic contact.
A region of high electrical resistance forms at the junction in this type of diode when the phosphorous near the ĵunction donates electrons that are free to move elsewhere while leaving phosphorus ions held in the crystal while the boron donates holes which are similalarly free to move. The two types of mobile charges mutually clear each other away near the junction leaving little electrical conductivity. An equlibrium width of this region is settled between the phosphorus, boron, electrons, and holes. Thermal noise is beyond steady state equlibrium. Thermal noise transients, where mobile electrons move from the phosphorus added side to the boron added side ride transient extra conductivity so the forward moving electrons are preferentally filtered into the external circuit. Mobile electrons are units of electric current. They lose their thermal energy of motion and gain electromotive force, another name for voltage, as they transition between the junction and the array electrical tap. Inside the diode, heat is absorbed: outside the diode, to exactly the same extent, an attached electrical circuit is energized. The voltage of a diode array is likely to be small so many similar arrays need to be put in series to build higher voltage.
Understanding diodes is one way to become convinced that Johnson Nyquest thermal electrical noise can be rectified and aggregated. Self assembling development teams may find many ways to accomplish this wide mission. Taxonomically there should be many ways ways to convert heat directly into electricity.
A practical device may use an array of Au needles in a SiO2 matrix abutting N type GaAs. These were made in the 1970s when registration technology was poor so it was easier to fabricate arrays and select one diode than just make one diode.
There are other plausible breeches of the second law of thermodynamics. Hopefully a lot of people will join in expanding the breech. Please share the successes or setbacks of your efforts.
These devices would probably become segmented commodities sold with minimal margin over supply cost. They would be manufactured by advanced automation that does not need financial incentive. Applicable best practices would be adopted. Business details would be open public knowledge. Associated people should move as negotiated and freely and honestly talk. Commerce would be a planetary scale unified conglomerate of diverse local cooperatives. There is no need of wealth extracting top commanders. We do not need often token philanthropy from the top if the wide majority of people can afford to be generous.
Aloha
Charles M Brown
Kilauea Kauai Hawaii 96754
Nuclear fission!
It's much easier to listen zizek than to this guy. You'd think a billionaire would be able to fix these speech impediments.but no
the disabled likes says all you need to know.
What does it say?
Kids growing up with A.I. as their friend, mentor, tutor, teacher, assistant, etc. is not healthy for kids. This is not a good thing for kids. Kids should be learning to pray and search within themselves for answers not getting all the answers from a cold, dead intelligence, with no life.
Sure, it's much better to have them watching dumb videos on TikTok ...
The world knowledge accessible from a friendly interface, that can be control to not give dodgy information … What a bad idea !!!
Except if we find a way to get back in time, you won't be able to erase the social media, so don't you think it's better to offer a smarter alternative ? Optimism mean not be only focusing on the bad sides (that exist, we agree) but allow your vision to be … positive. If we were only looking on the downside of things, we will probably still be leaving in a cave (fire can burn !)
The people who envisioned Ai more than 4,000 years ago don't care about you. You will be turned to a pillar of salt when they're done using you. LOL@@thetoolist
@thetoolist I'm not only looking at downside. But I don't think kids should have access to social media either. Is the AI going to tell them they need to live a clean lifestyle or turn them into hyper consumers? If the corporations have a hold of the AI it may just be a hyper clever advertiser and push vaccines on kids or tell them it's OK to eat glyphosate seed oil laced foods. We need decentralized AI.
@@briandoyle14 as much as I understand your point of view and integrate it in the equation, I'm wondering if you understand that behind this technological revolution stand a potential entire new civilisation where Keynes, Smith and Marx will have no place anymore.
We have (if their is no uprise against AI) the potential to rethink entirely the notion of value, when I read technology I often understand it as tECOlogy ... We are about to find a way to unf*cked the disaster we have created sorry if for 15 years your childs are going through a hard time, if nothing is done it will be way more than 15 years !
Let's not fall into obscurantism where science & tech are seen as danger, the danger is us mate !
@thetoolist I see your point. If we can use it to escape the trap we are in as a society than yes maybe it can help. But you can't assume it won't be regulated into a very govt. Controlled entity.
two handsome guys what is there not to like