Does 8 Ball Hate Northernlion? | Balatro

I decided to see if NLs insistence that 8 Ball is off by "at least a standard deviation" was just malding, or if Localthunk had actually gone into the code and plotted against our favourite egg.
I also got way into the editing for the middle section, and did not sleep enough the last 2 nights.
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All clips taken from the Northernlion video "They saved 8 ball (Balatro)"
▬ Contents of this video ▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬
00:00 - Clips of NL from the episode
08:54 - The Number Crunching Begins
11:44 - Results and Assessing The Standard Deviation Claim
12:52 - But What About the Wheel of Fortune cards though?

[@LeftistTechSupport]

The ego on NL if he ever sees this video

[@Rannos22]

I've had more hits on lucky cards than on anything listed as 1 in 4

[@kirbykins69]

Lucky cards actually give slightly more than 1 in 4, since you've got 1 in 5 for the 20 mult and 1 in 15 for the $20, the odds of a payout are actually ~25.3% (with a 1.3% chance of a double payout)

[@deejams18]

​@@kirbykins69 how does this work? My non-mathematics brain would put 1 in 5 and 1 in 15 together to make a 2 in 25 chance, but I know the first 5 of 15 must count for more/a higher chance

[@VaultDweller59]

@@deejams18 inserting myself into this thread so i can learnd

[@kirbykins69]

So one in 5 is 20% and one in 15 is 6.666(repeating if course)%, but you can't just add them together, because they could happen at the same time, which would represent 1.333% of cases, which reduces the overall likelihood of any success to 25.333%.

[@lunarshining7964]

The easiest way to calculate the odds of 1 thing hitting when there's multiple chances of things hitting is to first find the chances of NOT hitting. So, 4/5 and 14/15. Then multiply the tops together and the bottoms, and you get 56/75. That means the remaining 19/75 are the scenarios where you hit at least one. 19/75 = 25.33333%

[@ianheaven5245]

I think you have calculated the odds of getting exactly 34 success rather than 34 successes or under. This is a binomial distribution and you have directly derived the probability mass function (good derivation btw!) but we need to evaluate the cumulative distribution function. The variance on a binomial distribution is np(1-p) or in our case 29.0625, giving us a standard deviation of 5.39. our expected value was 155*0.25 = 38.75 leaving NL 4.75 below average, but within one standard deviation.

[@kirbykins69]

I think you're right! I may need to make an amendment to fix it 😅 Embarrassing for me, but I'm happy that it turns out Ryan was overreacting after all 😂

[@mononaut]

Thank god for nerds

[@laivum]

I thoroughly enjoyed this edit and maths. Thank you for your contribution/highlight :), NL is plain unlucky.

[@kirbykins69]

He was this time 😂

[@tomato3456]

Of course the 8 ball and cue ball never get along

[@curseyehamewho]

the edit at 9:04 and onward is so beautiful, youre my second librarian (no disrespect to bentz or br1an)

[@kirbykins69]

Thank you! That section did take me more time than the rest of the video combined 😅 I cannot aspire to Librarian's herculean output, but I will try to add in here and there when I can 💜

[@espicelmecanicodecombustio1632]

he's so due

[@kirbykins69]

Could not be more due 😂

[@redditshorts4u679]

nl has to see this

[@kirbykins69]

Can't let man get too sure that he's right though 😂

[@emilbennedsen3589]

Great video

[@kirbykins69]

Thank you 😊

[@averysmith7150]

what is the source of that thumbnail what an insane face i could never imagine on enelle

[@kirbykins69]

It's from a stream he did playing Ring Fit Adventure on the switch. It's a workout face more than an angry one 😂