Prigozhin's Aircraft Crash Analysis
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- čas přidán 20. 07. 2024
- Here's my interpretation of the limited evidence seen thus far in the incident involving Yevgeny Prigozhin's Private Jet - which crashed on 23 August 2023
Software:
♦ FluidX3D, the fastest and most memory efficient lattice Boltzmann CFD software, implemented in OpenCL. github.com/ProjectPhysX/FluidX3D
♦ Blender www.blender.org/
♫ Soundtrack: Frostpunk Soundtrack
#9 - The City Must Survive
Get the game on Steam: Frostpunk
store.steampowered.com/app/32...
💻 PC Specs:
Ryzen 9 - 5900X
nVidia RTX 3080 Ti
Some simulations were computed with 2 x RTX3090 24GB GPU's
Chapters:
0:00 - Intro
0:21 - The Aircraft
1:17 - Loss of the Tail
1:50 - Loss of the Wing
3:36 - The Descent
4:40 - Outro - Věda a technologie
damn, that's Mission Impossible level of presentation/analysis you made there lol
That's what you can do with a nasa supercomputer.
@@prothomasgaming There are no super computers like in the 1970's
@@friendlyreptile9931there are a bunch of them. As big as the NASA ones but trillions of times more powerful that your phone
except this isnt a movie at least 3 human beings are legitimately dead.
@@MichaelOfRohan life is a bitch, and then you die ;)
Straight to the point. No filler. And more information than the media delivers in a 30 minute exclusive report.
That’s for your work!
This man is doing God's work...
And YT algorithm needs to reward this behavior..
To be fair though, the media does not have enigeers in their team, bc they are hella expensive.
@@marcs.9027 having engineers on theirs staff is not the point dummy getting to the point with no fillers and bs
I love Australian CZcamsrs
@@marcs.9027 That's why they should just show footage instead of trying to say what's happening.
Unfortunately, they can't even show footage. Always some idiot talking over it, pausing, cutting, and tons of links to other bullshit only in their domain.
"An event occured which liberated the tail section from the aircraft" is such a pleasant way to describe it that it made me chuckle
This is how the USA liberate other nations.
Посмотрел 2 раза. Сначала читал субтитры а потом просто смотрел. Много раз пересматривал некоторые моменты. Вы правы, современные самолёты просто так не падают. Спасибо за труд. Очень впечатляет!👍
Все бы это можно было принять во внимание, если бы в интернете сразу не запостили видео со следами от ракеты пво, которое через 5 минут после публикации везде потёрли. Но по счастливой случайности у меня все видосы сохраняются с телеграма, поэтому у меня сомнений нет
@@zordan91 Берегите себя.
@@gg-le5kq ахахах)
@@zordan91я тоже сперва по видео думал,что это след от ракеты. Но есть несколько но. Во первых на высоте 9км вы летите выше большинства облаков и не удивительно,что самолёт вы видели выше нежели облако (хотя признаюсь, форма облака вводит в заблуждение ). Второй аргумент это,что зенитные ракеты начинены поражающими элементами и при подрыве пары сотен килограмм взрывчатки, всю шрапнель разбросало в радиусе пары километров ибо сопротивление воздуха минимально на такой высоте. Но мы нигде не видели найденных поражающих элементов, а они бы наверняка попадали на близлежащие дома.
Однако возникает вопрос про несколько взрывов о которых говорили за кадром. Либо было несколько зарядов для подстраховки и сработали они с задержкой и находились в разных местах или вовсе самолёт мог разваливаться с таким звуком. Что то по типу 1. Взрыв,2.отламыван е крыла 3.падение самолёта 4падение крыла или хвоста.
Ещё раз отмечу,что я на истину в по летней инстанции не претендую
@@deniskablukov4404 ну если вы считаете что облака имеют такую форму, то по моему это выдаёт некоторое желание придерживаться именно такой точки зрения. По какой причине не берусь судить. Во-вторых видео начинается буквально через несколько секунд после начала падения самолёта это хорошо видно по тем-же дымным следам которые остаются позади обломков самолёта. Сомневаюсь, что случайный человек, которым являлся автор видео, смог бы так среагировать и включить запись. Мало того звук распространяется с задержкой что еще на пару секунд снизило бы реакцию на включение записи. Из всего этого можно сделать вывод, что автора видео спровоцировал некий взрыв, предшествующий падению самолёта. Что это могло быть по-моему вполне очевидно. В-третьих, россыпь поражающих элементов над безлюдной местностью никак не возможно идентифицировать. Тверские леса еще до сих пор полны снарядов от великой отечественной войны, которые за 70 лет никто не нашел, а тут какие-то элементы незначительного размера. И еще непонятно кто такие «вы» и как «вы» могли их увидеть. Вы состоите в числе некой группы людей, занимавшихся поиском этих элементов в предполагаемом радиусе их распространения? В-четвертых, так до сих пор и не выложили в сеть фотографии фюзеляжа, только отрывочно часть элементов в плохом качестве, а места предполагаемого воздействия на корпус инородных предметов, будь-то взрывчатка или поражающие элементы нигде не выложены в сеть, что указывает не желание этот момент скрыть от общественности. По этом же причине удалили или обрезали видео со следами от снаряда. Да и целом непонятно почему расследование и сам факт с новостями относительно фактически третьего человека в стране по военной иерархии после верховного главнокомандующего и министра обороны перестал освещаться в новостях через несколько дней после события? Как будто и не было ничего… Введите слово самолет пригожина в гугле и увидите что уже с начала сентября эта тема стала табу на всех новостных ресурсах. Также весьма показательно, что от расследования сразу отстранили межгосударственный авиационный комитет, обосновав это тем, что имел место быть террористический акт. Хотя ранее МАК неоднократно занимался расследованием катастроф по причине террористического акта и в целом больше опыта чем у них в ведении авиационных расследований нет ни у кого в стране. В связи со всем вышеперечисленным склонен с достаточной степенью уверенности заключить что это был снаряд ПВО.
Very good simulation, thank you. I thought it was a missile of some kind due to the trail that was visible in the sky, but your argument is very well put.
Would there be any smokeless surface to air missiles that reach 28,000 feet? I figured anything that reached that high would have a visible smoke trail that makes the attack obvious 🤷♂️
@@SLGY LAZERS!!! PEW PEW PEW (joking). Yes good point. The missile explanation is very lazy
@@SLGY There is a lot of footage from Ukraine of the use of S-300/S-500 systems that are being blamed for the strike, since they're in use by both sides. Having only puffs of smoke at the altitude of the impact without any visible trail beyond that doesn't seem uncommon. The smoke trail seems to dissipate very quickly with them, and there is definitely some smoke in the footage already leading towards the aircraft. The fact that onlookers reported two explosions could also indicate that it was a spread launch from the ground. Still, your explanation is also excellent and honestly we may never know whether it was a missile or a bomb. Your video is really convincing, but on the other hand there the damage allegedly indicated a strike from outside. I'm not an expert at all though!
From what I've seen previously (a good example being MH17) is surface to air missiles will pepper large portions of the aircraft skin with the fragments from the missile explosion. The missiles operate by exploding very close to the target, not actually hitting it, and then explode like a claymore mine, fragments covering a large area on the side of the aircraft it exploded near. I guess we haven't seen any portions of the aircraft that have any signs of those penetrations (particularly the tail) - just large chunks of aircraft hull 🤷♂️
Most missiles burns solid fuels and when they ignite they burn until they are empty. At this point the missile still has considerable momentum and still tracks its target without running engines, and no exhaust fumes.
Some fuels also burns with little visible exhaust fumes, and won't leave any trails.
Air to air missiles are smaller and less visible than SAM's.
I have seen pictures of parts with holes that could be shrapnel, but it's nothing conclusive.
An internal explosion is just as likely.
i feel honestly sad for the pilots, for them it was just another day at work that these bad people finished off
They knew who they were working for.
They were part of Wagner, so it's okay.
@@Sekir80Wagner did nothing wrong
@@Cesko_Plny_Fialovejch_Zmrdu The Empire did nothing wrong
@@Sekir80 Putin did nothing wrong
I think you nailed it absolutely. Superb production. It's unusual to be presented with such a concise and straightforward elucidation of the aerodynamic forces involved in such a catastrophic scenario.
This was really well explained and exceptionally visualized. Subscribed!
brilliant work. i think you should do this more!
That's the plan!
If Putin likes Stalin as much as we think, you’ll get more events to use as reference soon
I like how the tone of the video is balanced. We have on one hand the epic music to make the situation feel dramatic, and on the other hand the narrator's calm, almost bored voice, like an airline pilot apologizing about being stuck on the tarmac for a while and describing the planned flight duration.
Ha ha, yeah can't agree more
... while the aircraft is already at 3000 above sea level and gaining altitude.
@repentandbelieveinJesusChrist1grow up.
hahah, true, it took me years to perfect my airline pilot voice, but I can't get rid of it now. 👨✈️
@SLGY ... in that now-famous bored pilot's voice near the end of the video...
You will notice appearing on the upper left-hand side of your video, another video selection for your viewing pleasure. For those who wish to forgo that suggested video, a playlist will then appear on the lower right-hand side of the video. Feel free to watch those videos or stay tuned for the credit.
I hope you had a nice flight... er, a nice video.
Thank you.
😀
Great analysis, and very plausible, well done and a great insight to what most likely happened!
👍😉
this is why i just drive or walk
🤣
This is why I don't fly with Russian warlords
Flying is safer, sometimes.
Driving a passenger vehicle is the MOST dangerous mode of transport.
Leader of North American and North Korean prefer the railway.
Well done. This was exactly my take when I saw the original footage. A device placed on the ceiling of the rear baggage compartment causing fin and stabiliser separation and subsequent nose down pitch.
Footage of the tail section and detached wing have no obvious shrapnel damage so a missile seems unlikely. Of course there’s also the (slight) chance of structural failure due to a maintenance problem.
That's a good point, it being at the top of the baggage compartment to have the best chances of success...
I thought i saw another video that showed shrapnel holes in the wing... ill see if i can find it and link it.
Either way a bomb would most likely leave some sort of shrapnel holes too.
I'm rather in favor a your last option: the maintenance issue. Progozhin failed to maintain his allegiance to Putin, which caused his plane to fall from the sky.
@@thierrygillard6896 the sky? Didn't the plane fall from a window?
Wow this was so well explained. Would love to see more aerodynamic breakdowns of other crashes.
Fantastic!
Clear and concise with excellent simulation.
Subbed.
This is a fantastic breakdown and evaluation of what potentially happened. You must have put a lot of work into this. Thank you.
great simulation, you really deserve more popularity
Great video! Also, love the use of the frostpunk theme
Thank you for the effort put into this video, its absolutely brilliant. Detailed, fascinating and straight to the point. The background music is very unnerving that adds to the jeopardy. Amazing to get moment by moment sim of this event. 👍✌🤘
In case you wanna know, the music is „The City Must Survive“ from Piotr Musiał. It’s on the soundtrack of the game Frostpunk.
How to know if the wing separated first and rip the tail or vice versa?great video
In other accidents (including larger airliners) that I've studied over the years, if a wing is lost _first_ then the tailplane will generally keep the aircraft pointing mostly forwards the whole time - like the fletching on an arrow does. And the fuselage continues on a parabolic path downwards to the ground but the tailplane remains attached and never allows the fuselage to get 'sideways' enough to rip the tailplane off with the force of the airflow. The remaining wing may roll the aircraft as it produces lift but the tailplane keeps the whole wreck pointing forwards until it contacts the ground. So considering the tailplane was in a different location to the fuselage it leads to me to think that it wasn't a main wing that separated first 🤷♂️
For the alternate view, try to decipher the poor image quality in this video: czcams.com/video/8H2FGud37RQ/video.htmlm30s
To me it looks like the empennage was attached while the plane was falling and there's some holes which could be caused from shrapnel. On the other hand, the two engines would also take up a few pixels. The Wall Street Journal seems to think it was a bomb: czcams.com/video/x2BAYebRVfk/video.html
Overall, the physics in this CFD simulation looks accurate enough and provide far more scrutiny than I expect from the official investigation.
First thing that hit me watching a few copies of the grainy video in different stages of the fall, it seemed that at one point it still had 2 wings and engines but no tail, with smoke and debris mostly falling from the tail area.
@@nathanbanks2354
I think the bomb hidden in the luggage is the most plausible from a sabotage perspective. (We all know who's ultimately responsible for this.)
If it was any kind of missile and it was discovered for some reasons, it would look very bad for the russian government but if we discover it's a bomb, they can always point their finger at a terrorist attack... It wouldn't be the first time for the FSB or the KGB to use a fake terrorist attacks to achieve their goals.
short answer. you find the tail and wing. if the tail is further back from the route. the tail cut off first.
Looks spot on, only discrepancy I see is that the plane went upward for a couple is sec which might mean that the rear fuselage was attached for some seconds after the explosion and the plane went in an upward motion likely due to loss if control
I really hope Pringles had bis safety belt on
ohhh, good point. I did a little bit of an initial nose-up movement in the vid before it pitched over rapidly but didn't focus on it too much. I'd agree with you there, the tail probably held on by a thread for a little bit and caused all sorts of pitching up before it finally broke free.
@@SLGYNo, it makes sense, the force of the explosion will look for the easiest path which if placed optimally is the ceiling of the aircraft.
Like an engine, excess gas venting from the ceiling and nothing from below will act like momentary downward thrust (or clockwise torque given that it’s to the right of the CG) and give a slight pitch up before the “thrust” disappears and aerodynamics pushes it nose down. The free body diagram can tell a lot of stories
First time watching your videos. Very well done. Excellent production values.
Awesome analysis, thank you for your work!
Absolutely excellent video.
Well done.
Would not have expected music from Frostpunk, was pleasently surprised though
The city must survive. ❄️
Really cool and informative interpretation, subscribed for more content like this!
Welcome aboard!
The music the presentation is above everthing I've watched, this is amazing work and I hope you do more.
But what is with the multiple ascending and descending of the plane before it fell down?
I think potentially there was a period of time where the tail was badly damaged and it still providing (albeit unreliable) pitch control and the pilots attempted to start a controlled descent - eventually it would have vibrated/shaken/ripped loose and then the sequence shown in the video continues. I decided not to focus on this period in the video as it's hard to make sense of what was happening from the limited data/info, and ultimately it was only a brief pause to the sequence and didn't change the end result much. Hope that makes sense 🤷♂️
If u mean the diagram with the RA 02795 vertical rate - it shows the velocity of ascending and descending. When the graph hits the zero (0) line it means cruising altitude is reached. Everything above zero means the aircraft is ascending. holding on zero means holding altitude, everything below zero means descending. The glitches in the vertical line at the end are caused by the turbulences the remaining wing generated. The aircraft was only ascending and holding altitude until the "accident" , there was no descending.
@@borisblocksberg i think what OP was referring to was rather that the plane gained about a kilometer of altitude over its cruising altitude, then went back to cruising altitude, before ascending again for a bit and then plummeting. The initial rise of about a kilometer seems hard to explain with SLGY's explanation of the damaged tail still providing some pitch control, to me, at least.
@@pantalaemon the aircraft wasnt descending at anytime until the accident, only the speed of ascending varies from fast to slower, that happens when the aircraft makes a curve or the altitude is blocked for another aircraft. he was ascending, holding on cruise altitude and then dropping like a stone.
Your description of likely descent and break up of the embraer looks accurate. However, 2 eyewitness reports of booms/bangs before and the shaky phone clip with smoke trails, one following wreckage, and one seeming to reach for the top of the first trail, to my mind indicate shootdown. There are a few photos of wreckage which could indicate shrapnel holes (not outbound) seem also to support the shootdown. Also, Wagner had two planes in the sky, only one crashed to earth. I don't think Mr P and his crew would have flown in the same aircraft as unexpected "gifts". Pity the Russians won't let Brazil join the investigation, but then that might reveal all.
There were zero smoke trails from any direction aside from the where the plane came from. A missile would leave a definitive smoke trial from the incoming direction. There is zero evidence of this.
the amount of the holes does not correspond to what it normally looks like when an AD rocket hits/explodes near the aircraft. this particular aircraft wasnt peppered with shrapnel which, again, is unlikely knowing how those AD rockets work
I think this video gives a good argument that the tail detaching from the rest of the craft was the start of the breakup, but I don't see it arguing that sabotage was more or less likely than any other cause for that happening in the first place.
Local Russian witneses have said that they heard an AA gun firing so this is what most likely happened
You think Prigozhin is still alive?
Love the content, also the love the music choice. Keep it up!
I am glad to have your observations clearly described with your understanding of aircraft . As well as your visual effects. I had also studied the frame by frame video at the location. First just a overview of the start of that video from the ground . The amazing Timing of the start of the video had been suspicious as to how prepared that was . Further not just one radio tower but a two just feet away from his fence. One just had a flash view of it in the video. But had been a very multi frequency and even micro wave cell phone as well. All very interesting as this all plays out . And as you pointed out the rear compartment that seams to be the start of of sudden uncontrollable flight path that had allowed great speeds as well as a rolling type maneuver that placed high stresses along the outer extensions of the aircraft . Without any other real signs of a explosion being seen forward of the tail section . Further information released that high security protocol was in place . And the second aircraft was used as with the passenger list being manipulated to avoid any real awareness of just who was on what aircraft . Yet after flights had departed those on the ground could of spotted the target victim to the tail number . That had a package ready to have a signal sent to known frequency of the aircraft that had been targeted . While flying in range of the tower . To then have the video camera for proof of the disaster . The video itself may be the biggest clue to the event . And that second tower was just as far from the camera as the mostly seen radio tower . But one must really be quick to stop the video . And when seen it was full of multi band devices . And to have the towers only feet away from the supposed house . Were a wooden fence . That may be easy to add ones device to the already in service tower. Or been a part of the operations hut that was being used to maintain and secure and even operate state run communications services or monitoring as well as many other possible uses. Think of how many videos have you seen that cover such a event . That was so far not mentioned any sounds of aircraft that had been miles away to add many seconds to then react to have the camera suddenly all ready to be used . Test yourself outside . How long does it take to pull out cell phone then prepare a already on phone to camera then video . To then establish a high up almost prior to its loss of control . That had a very low credibility of just chance . And a greater probability is all this was a well planned and use of several people with a location of the act being all targeted at the same location that the towers and cameras were all staged and ready to only target one of the two aircraft that would not alarm the target of a ongoing operation to take him out . All a fifty fifty chance that had defeated the deception of using two aircraft without passenger designation and having a full well trained security and officers that had been one of the worlds best security aware and prepared for times of greatest weakness in ones actions . I’d give 95 percent on the credibility from just the data I had so far studied . Thank you for your video and hope to learn more from future videos you produce.
Turn on the Closed Captions for anyone not able to penetrate the accent 🦘 I'm keen to see if anyone's noticed anything else from the footage of the incident that I may have missed here, let me know!
your accent is very good, as a non native English speaker I can distinguish everything you say
Thanks for saying so, it's a good confidence boost as I've not been good at speaking previously.
You have a mild Australian accent, don’t sell yourself short bud. Greetings from Scotland
Non-native English speaker here, I could follow you perfectly. What if instead of a bomb, the plane was shot down. Would an impact to the tail have had similar consequences?
Non-native speaker here. I'm quite used to Aussie accent at this point, can distinguish it. Probably not from kiwi accent, though. You're pretty clear, no CC was needed.
Hey nice model! Very clean mesh!
Wow nice job. Felt like you were the actual person giving the briefing on what happen.
Wow. That must have been a sight to behold. Great video. Subscribed 👍
This was very insightful, not only due to the airflow and explaining forces, but showing the importance of the tail and how that applies to CoL and it's relation to CoM.
It really shows just how critical and unrecoverable significant damage to the tail is.
I'm wondering why the aircraft pitches down once the horizontal stabilizer on the tail is gone. If the center of mass moves forward, why doesn't the nose pitch up?
The pivot point is the centre of lift (only thing holding it up). Think of it like a seesaw, the centre of mass sitting on one end, the tail downforce sitting on the other. So when the tail downforce hops off its end of the seesaw, ol mate CoM will fall down
Very good animation, very good explanation, you my man earned a sub
Good to get some narration on this one. Well done!
How Prigozin didn't assume this would happen is crazy, he was apparently very tight on his security but then he just decides that he's going to be forgiven by a man he showed to be weak.
what choice does he have, you think you can hide from military intelligence anywhere on this planet? he chose to pretend he will be forgiven and see what happens
@@maratpirate6343the choice " dont fly in Russian airspace, or at the least, not near Moscow" comes to mind.
Great analysis!
Thanks for that analysis. Initially, I was suspicious of a missile attack because of the missing wing, usually missile attacks result in partial wing failures or total breakup. The fact that a wing was missing from the root was very abnormal in my opinion. The details of the baggage compartment location and your simulation results strengthen the sabotage hypothesis significantly for me.
Very good simulation and commentary. Well done 👍
Great work! Thank you!
I've just emailed one of the most important Dutch journalists in The Netherlands about this video. Thank you for all the hard work! You should get a lot more subscribers!
I missed the part where you explain why a missile couldn't have done it
Well there's no signs of it being a missile. The video would be twelve hours long if I described all of the things it wasn't, this video is about what experts think it was based on what can be seen. There's no sign it was a 10km high wall of icecream they collided with, should I have included that too?
Yikes
@@SLGY The thumbnail says "clearly sabotage", implying that other explanations are wrong.
And I don't think that the wall of ice cream stands close enough to the top three likely causes, one of which is a missile.
@@SLGY many casual viewers have missile on their mind as a possibility. Bit disingenuous to start talking about some ice cream wall, that obviously isn’t something any viewers are tuning in for. You even end the video with “what do you think”, so why do you infantilise the OP like that?
Ok fair enough, I see that it was uncalled for. I'm sorry @WofWca.
A missile is a valid assumption considering the context and the number of youtubers pushing that viewpoint onto the evidence seen thus far. I cant see any evidence of an external kinetic weapon interacting with the airframe. I've pointed a few other people in the comments of this video to the MH17 incident being a good example where a surface to air weapon was involved.
Underatted channel, subscribed ✌️
Really good simulation and explanation. Thank you
What can you expect when you rebel against your government in the midle of a war?
You can hear both engines working all the way down. I think they stayed at cruising thrust the whole time.
Might aswell. Nothing to lose at that point.
@@hherpdderp well, modern SAMs target to cockpit...
@@MichaelThe-Pyro What? That's simply not true. They target whatever their radar guidance systems tell them to, which is more than likely the center-mass of the target.
@@WimsicleStranger it is completely true for Radar guided SAMs. They lead the target in order to make impact... The cockpit is at the front. Look at photos aircraft hit by a surface-to-air missiles the majority of damage is to the cockpit and just behind the cockpit. This is very evident in the Malaysian airlines flight 17. Severe shrapnel damage is shown to have impacted the cockpit. I am a random internet stranger yes, however I do have experience in this
@@MichaelThe-Pyro If I shoot a TOW at the flank-side of a moving tank. I'm not aiming at the driver because "I have to lead the target and the driver is in the front". That logic is just silly lmao.
Oh my, fascinating presentation !
Hey came across your video while looking for CFD simulation videos. Though I'm only interested on the CFD side of the video, gotta admit the video was nicely put together. Is there any way possible for you to make a tutorial video on how you did the CFD simulation?
aight, so seatbelt always off if I'm travelling in a private jet
Do you think you could model a missile interception? in the original video we can see some sort of white "trail" near the aircraft as it goes down. However, I'm unable to tell if that white smoke is either from the missile explosion, missile propellant or an explosive device inside the aircraft.
I do not know the composition of the potential explosives used and/or the color of smoke they leave behind so its impossible for me to tell.
I do know the missiles of the Pantsir and Strela AA systems leave a white trail but the one in the video is rather small. Also, Pantsir missiles have two stages, so maybe if the first stage is found we could know more (unlikely though).
Great video btw
That white trail was most likely from the plane itself
Conjecture... the torn away wing would have had fuel in it. That fuel may have misted or burned as the wing fell separately.
@@testiclegaming1250 doubtful. also Meany Russians around Moscow were panicking at that time because they thought there was about to be another drone attack due to reports of missile launches...
Dunno but when I saw it the white mist my first thought was decompression fog. It didn't seem to be going anywhere.
I don't think there were missiles, they recovered wing that broke off, there is 0 sign of shrapnel that you would have if it was hit by AA rocket. I agree with creator it was likely bomb place on board, also agree that we will never know the truth, for 1 reason, even if Russians do find the culprit and tell the truth mind set has been made up here in the west on who was responsible, we even saw glimpse of that made up mind set at end of the video.
Great stimulation and explanation, congratulations! But what about the version with the ground - air missile?
Congratulations. Exellent details.
Cool simulation. I think it was no accident at least. The exact means of the destruction isn't really that important (bomb, missile, etc). But the message was pretty clear to anyone.
He coulda faked his own death to escape Putin
An explosive makes sense.
Brazil was not allowed to investigate. A fellow Brics member. That says all. And Putins smile while announcing Prigos death
Great simulation and explanation! Just went trough all your sim videos, and seeing how you did a few fictional Aircraft, what's your thoughts on looking onto some of the ace combat designs? ADFX-01 and the X-02 seem like good candidates for testing, specially the X-02 as it has ridiculous but believable variable geometry. If you're willing but cant find the game models do let me know.
Ohh now there's a good idea, I'll put it on the list! Thankyou
Epic video. Thanks for uploading.
Hey: I have a minor in physics and mechanics, and have learnt and taught aviation in ground school.
Just wanted to say in reply to scrim that the video looks completely reasonable and I don’t have anything really to point out, everything makes sense and was very well explained.
IMO pilot training is enough physics to understand this but even _with_ formal education, no discrepancies exist. Great job!
This is the only YT video where everyone is respectful to each other lol. Love it.
Well done. Absolutely Fantastic job. Definitely earned a subscriber!
Welcome aboard!
@@SLGY thanks!
Blahaj spotted ❤️
Spot on. Good job; Loved the graphics.
It is a nice presentation! It explores physical aspects, however, the majority of questions in such a situation are Why, How, and Why
The missile is also still an option. Most air defense missiles have a reasonably small warhead (except the AIR-2 Genie nuclear air to air rocket), and if it's infrared targeting it would go after the hottest part of the aircraft, the engines which are at the tail in this case.
I did find supposed footage of the wing being dragged away.
Wing did look sheered off.
I have a tiny bit of aviation repair experience. Based on footage alone I did not see the evidence of anti-aircraft shrapnel.
Plus, the exact model of this plane in Brazil survived its winglet (curved vertical part at end of wind) cutting thru the wing of a 737 over Brazil in the early 2000’s. (ATC fault) the 5 foot winglet broke off, but the pilots were able to land the plane at a near by military base without flaps.
Everyone in the 737 died.
So the fact the entire wing came off means something suspicious happened.
Plus Russia is not investigating AND they refused the manufactures request to examine the wreckage.
Yea.
In other news the stock for the manufacturing company of this plane went up 3%.
That’s the markets way of patting the company on the back and saying “it’s ok, your not at fault”
Fun fact, one of the owners of the company was in that new jet when it collided with the 737 over Brazil.
There is an Air Crash Investigations episode on that.
a woman on board, called her mother prior to take off, and told her they were delayed while they were doing something to the plane/ or loading something.
It’s not really, missiles don’t just shear off one portion of the vert-stab they’d have blown the entire empennage wide open.
Nice work! What were the softwares used for this simulation?
FluidX3D i think
Great analysis! Cheers from America!
duh, great video all the same. concise with great visuals, I appreciate the time it took you. cheers
I believe that we all suspected what happened even before your excellent analysis and why it will never be properly investigated.
Everyone knew what happened before the plane hit the ground. I'm actually surprised it took as long as it did.
I wish CZcams was more like this level of presentation. Outstanding!
This is CZcams...
I rate this as a skilled and plausible theory. I am not sure about there being a missile track in the crash video - but it is also possible, or might have other explanation. Even so, if it were a missile?, such explosion might have occurred in the location hypothesised in your video. I recall noting the engine sound continued down towards the ground, so I think your comment about that is correct. I rate your video highly.
Good work. Can you simulate another scenario where the expolsives are hidden just near where the wing is attached to the plane. There is always room there where the control system cables and other pipes are run to different parts of the wing.
Could a surface to air missile also cause the rear empenage to separate? I?m thinking of a continous rod warhead like the one found on Pantsir rather than blast frag like on Buk or S300
Although I am now almost certain it was a bomb
it was a missile. there are photos showing fragmentation on parts of the airframe as well as Russian civilians around Moscow reporting a missile launch around the time of the crash
Looks as a very likely scenario; a bit as my own thoughts acually. So here is another subscriber. 🏆
👋
very nice details and explanation.
Excellent video. Very convincing.
I think you pretty much nailed it. Since the tail section was separated from the fuselage and the baggage compartment is in the same place, 2+2=boom. Goodbye several large hemorrhoids.
Besides, since when has the KGB guys been bashful about shoving some poor sap out a window and claimed it to be a suicide. Not a bad job really, did us all a great favor and I'm sure the Uk,s will have a Holliday for him in the future.
Yeah definitely, and it's a good thing when the enemy starts wiping out their own top-level people. Historically it's signalled the beginning of the end of wars when dictators start doing that.
@@SLGY You should try do CFD analysis on the Kramatorsk Tochka-U strike and see if you manage to replicate the tail position on the ground in relationship to the zone that was hit by the cluster submunitions . You can do it :P
Brilliant analyisis, thank you
Clear explanation, great simulations
Hey man, I just wanted to congratulate you on your success outside of Teardown content, I'm happy to see you doing well, this video is really well made, keep it up!
Thanks so much, that's so nice of you to say - I hope I can keep the momentum going!
It's been amazing to see your channel grow since you started too, you clearly put in a lot of work and stuck with it - very well deserved 👍
This is insanely accurate. What tool or app did you use to simulate airflow? And does it simulate pressure and deformation, or did you animated it by yourself?
Check the video description for details.
Great its amazing that you could setup the model so fast, I am still working on it.
Really nice work ! what software did you use? im curious bc I work with CFD
Slippery... There is no way 😂😂
1:01 My chair and Prop guy's chairs are flying out of the aircraft. When you become famous don't forget about us mate 😊
Haha I'm so glad someone noticed the chairs being sucked out! You've made my day 😁
I think I saw a lovely little SAM trail in the original vid with a shrapnel cone cloud at the end of it, hitting the engine area this would rip the tail off in exactly the same manner while also explaining the numerous holes seen on the wreckage.
I was told it's not unusual for the smoke trail to stop well before the target. The cone is unmistakable though and any sort of shaped charge being onboard seems highly unlikely.
@Milkmans_Son it depends on the missile. Some have longer burning rocket motors than others. For instance, the missiles fired from the Pantsir burns a very quick first stage motor to get up to speed. This motor, while powerful, is very smokey. It then reaches the target via a less powerful smokeless motor to maintain the interceptor's speed. Other older systems like BUK and S-300 leave smoke trails for the majority of the interceptor's flight time and would be likely candidates for the shoot down
@@skyrimn00b98 Thanks, your description matches up with what I have found (czcams.com/video/-1UMo3HhCjE/video.htmlsi=PLKxeR3KtvCxduRB&t=299).
So with the why no smoke trail question answered plus the obvious umbrella shaped cloud shown in the videos it had to be a Pantsir, wouldn't you think? Probably taken from Wagner's very own inventory because, well, Putin. Either way though, it seems far more likely that the tail was sliced off by a continuous rod warhead than by a charge hidden inside.
It wouldn’t, it would sever the entire empennage not just unseat the vert-stab. Numerous holes are seen on all airplane crashes, missiles look more like a bite taken out of the plane and they don’t sim behind they actually sim in front of the plane causing damage close to the center of mass.
@AnarexicSumo Idk where you got those crackhead ideas... for one, it doesn't have to "sever" the vertical stabilizer. It just has to do enough damage to allow the normal forces it is subjected to to make it fail and detach. Secondly, anti air missiles commonly have a shaped dispersion frag warhead. The idea is to cause as much damage from the most common points at which the proximity fuze would be tripped. This isn't a cartoon. A missile strike isn't always going to make a perfect "cookie cutter" hole in the plane. Third, depending on the guidance system and firing aspect, it's not guaranteed to strike center mass (especially since we're dealing with Russian missiles). It may strike the nose, tail, side, or belly. To claim that missiles always strike center mass is idiotic without knowing the full context of the shoot down. Lastly, the holes... internal explosions do not cause metal to bend inwards.
Great Video! How do you make these aerodynamics simulations?
Fantastic job. 😎👍
Regarding the question at the end: what I think is not most important, I am not knowledgeable regarding air plane sabotage. Therefore I appreciate the explanation of someone who is knowledgeable. Thank you for the explanation and the visuals, they make sense to me!
Russia can hide the investigation results (if there are any), but it is clear as day for the whole world what happened in Russia.
A window wasn't high enough for Prigo
Well he had an windows seat 😂
Brilliant video very well made
Would you mind sharing the CFD code(s) you were using for the simulation? Great video
Good work, but what about the traces in the sky that some relate to a missile? Couldn't an external explosion weaken the structure in the rear and get the same result?
I am no expert but a misile, most likely will cause fire as well as parts of shrapnel will hit the fuel tanks, and very posible to break this small plane in half.
A Weapons demonstration of a missile system is something that I would trade with Kim jong un in exchange for other weapons perhaps?
Based on the wreckage videos and photos, I've not seen any evidence of missile impact or fragmentation damage. When the left wing was recovered from the forest, it was virtually intact.
What people saw in the sky was the condensation formed when the pressure cabin was breached. There was also fuel atomising as the engines spooled down and the wing failed.
What a wonderful event!
It would have been even better if putin was on board imo,.
+1, but at least it's comforting to know that when dictators start taking out out their own top-level people it's, historically, signalled the beginning of the end of that particular war.
@@SLGY Good point
Are you a psychopath?
There were 10 people onboard and somehow I doubt the flight attendant for example had anything to do with the smashing of heads with sledgehammers.
Great work! What did you use to simulate this? How long did it take?
Tell me you can't even read the description without telling me you can't even read the description.
Brilliant choice of music
Frostpunk rules 👍
Play stupid games...
ty awesome video. subbed
I think you are spot on. Good plane taken down by bad people. Thanks for your detailed and believable accurate analysis.
Greetings, is the software used on screen any ANSYS based program like Fluid flow? I wish to replicate the event with a G550 replica that I have on storage.
thnks for the video.
Very nice please do more videos like this.