Is World of Tanks Rigged?
Vložit
- čas přidán 20. 06. 2024
- An analytical and statistical video essay.
My website for skins and mods: chems.gg/
Join this channel to get early viewing access to this video:
/ @chems
Spreadsheet (some functions only work with excel, so you must download the file): docs.google.com/spreadsheets/...
0:00:00 Intro
0:01:54 Russian Bias
0:14:42 CC RNG
0:22:42 Sigma Values
0:24:49 Mercy Shots
0:30:07 Booster's MM
0:34:23 Stats dependent RNG
0:36:42 Shadow Nerfs
0:38:01 Grille 15 Accuracy
0:39:40 Light tank MM
0:40:57 Evidence Conclusion
0:42:04 Frequency Illusion
0:43:16 Selection Bias
0:45:17 Law of Truly Large Numbers
0:48:00 Occam's Razor
0:48:52 Mindset Conclusion
0:50:06 THE GAME
0:51:45 THE PLAYER
0:52:56 THE COMMUNITY
0:56:57 Premium Store Exploit
1:02:48 WoT Alternatives
1:04:40 Is WoT Rigged?
meme channel: / @wchems
website for skins: chems.gg/
discord link: / discord
if link doesnt work check my newest video's description - Hry
1:03:28 The game I was talking about is no longer under NDA, and is called Project Cold War. I’ve been playing it since the first play tests were available, it’s pretty good (for now) feel free to look it up to hear what other people have to say about it.
isnt that a wargaming project?
can confirm, it's quite different to wot in a lot of ways, but also similar enough to easily switch from one to the other.
it most likely won't be nearly as p2w, if at all, which is amazing.
@@rydz3442 yeah it is
The booster arguement is sometimes used in warthunder but over on our community it’s more like a joke, not a serious conspiracy only cause u can go one game really well and the next u keep getting one shot 3 times in a row hahaha. We know it ain’t real but we gotta have some fun haha
So... you're welcome at Armored Warfare, Chems! ;)
Honestly Armored Warfare is a better game than WoT,even if there are a smaller number of players..
AW is a lot of fun, I still go back now and again to play some tanks with less stress than WoT. I haven't pplayed WoT in over a year, the other day I reinstalled it just to see and it let me play against bots for a number of matches to "warm up". Who knew the bots play better than the actual teammates I usually get? lol
Holy shit based but are you guys still alive?
does anyone have chems discord invite?
@@stansearcheslife6363 Yeah, actually! Still pretty alive, but just, not as many players compared to WoT or WT.
Incredible attention to detail, quality.
Other youtubers uploading battles from Twitch because they don't even want to record a new video on YT, and what you create here are completely different standards. Congratulations, keep it up.
Only a few days ago I realised Chems is the only WoT youtube channel with videos I will rewatch and be entertained every time.
I only found out about Chems because of the Skill4ltu drama, which really opened my eyes to what sort of person Skill is, and made me realise how good Chems content is.
the kanye of wot
@@chemsbro wants this title so bad and I respect it
it's a pretty accurate title i think
@@chemskanye makes trash music now and you keep getting better, so it's inaccurate.
You almost got me to install that game again. But then I remembered what playing 10 bottom tier matches every afternoon after work felt like: Stockholm Syndrome. the dread of knowing the other flank will inevitably collapse while you have to do the wobble wobble cupola snipe ridgeline dance. Oh god, I think my PTSD is flaring up.
Yeah I had a couple of noobs in my battle a few days ago and they kept following me. They allowed the enemy tanks to flank us because they didn't stay where they could watch our backs while I fought the more dangerous tanks. We lost the entire battle because the two noobs made that mistake. They both had less than 500 battles.
Ah a fellow WoT veteran, i got out years ago and never looked back, it was hell, not worth the anger and frustration.
Just uninstalled. Had a session few days ago with a platoon mate and increased my wr. Very next session win 2 out of I and immediately right back to where I am. Insane misses, insane bounces, bot-like teammates, etc. The thing is this situation of getting a losing session immediately after a winning session has happened consistently many many times. Anytime my wr goes beyondna certain level it's an immediate losing streak. So I'm done.
@@deonte9014 ye but there's people like the author that don't experience this or maybe don't notice it, Idk
This video does not prove that the WoT is not rigged. Only that there is a possibility it is not rigged.
As the author doesn't have the actual game code they have server side.
Look how they have massacred my beloved WoT
it was a long time coming, your stop motion videos capture the old days of WoT
@@paradeinberlin Yeah it's all just a shell of itself by now
@@APC227 no fun allowed 😥 i just want to climb again
Know you waited a while, but I'm on time.
20 fucking days what the fuck have you been smoking
Lets go baby
Heck yeah!!!
Thanks
Never fails to disappoint us
I am 39 years old, who played alot of games and watched a looot of youtube videos, this , this might be the best articulated, explained and created video on youtube. Congratulations my friend, and as a humble suggestion, you should create more because obviously you are an artist
Artist is an insult to Chems. Most artists can't grasp logicalness or even logic itself, which mathematics is at its core. Only the greatest of the greats like Leonardo da Vinci combine these traits.
in case you are wondering, kajzoo and dakillzor did contribute to this video, but i noticed a lot of people talking about a "claus" person, i don't know where this idea is coming from, but he is not involved with this video at all.
get a life
claus voice is here lol .2.04,, 14.52
@@andrekubik6652 Lies
they are referring to Claus Kellerman. He is a Canadian WoT CC. His voice can be heard on this video at 1:54 to 2:04 talking about Russian Bias; 14:42 to 15:00 talking about CCs getting special RNG, you even responded with "aren't you a CC?"; How could you not know who Claus is, but yet know that he is a CC?
@@jasonpenn5476 Yeah and a lot of his comments were taken out of context. Oh and if you have played the game since Day 1 you know that Russian bias was a thing for a long time and that German tanks was always getting the shorter end of the stick. That being said, great vid.
i think the russsian bias came from the time where wot was still only 4-5 nations. Back then for example a tier XI T54 med had a 500mm ring arround the tank. I think things like these fired the russian bias up
Magical russian side skirts that most players didnt know about made it most popular tbh
Never forget obj 268 v4, the most ridiculously overpowered tank ever seen (apart from wt e100)
Russian bias comes from easy of use that russian tanks provide (or used to) and really tricky real life physics that russian engineers used and abused when making those tanks.
@@teemumiettinen7250 we're talking old-school like 10+ years ago when the concept spaced armor on the sides of those heavies absorbing heat shells seemed crazy.
That release version of the v4 is more an example of modern world of tanks when they release a new tank/tech tree that stands out for their own nation as well the rest of the game. (ebr, bz, chieftan are other examples)
I am playing with sconq and i miss many shots,i play with 277 feels more acurate than that sconq,i play with leo 1 missing shots arty bouncing my shoots but my stb 1 hits everything when i play with it,explain this.
I like how looking at the timestamps in the description, there is an entire section dedicated to the grille 15.
To be fair, when QB said they paid 4400 dollars it is more rational to think that he wasnt aware of the Argentinian loop hole than to assume that he intentionally lied to his audience.
If you look at the other stuff he's doing then even more so. Also does it still work? Is it still shown in Chems' Discord?
44:05 Quite frankly, this reminds me of something:
When Apple introduced random music selection in their music player, it was truly random. That means that the same song can come again right after it was played.
People reacted negatively and said this isn't random.
So Apple made their random selection less random by preventing the same song to be played for a few songs and people reacted to it positively AND though it's more random.
yeah cause most people never really think about true random numbers or random generation. well I've studied this in my university times, also a bit of a math head and I gotta tell you rng in wargaming games is NOT random :D I play tons of board games with true random generator which is the dice, but in WOT to this day I've noticed so much manipulation it's almost fake advertising that they're doing
It is looking so good! Fr looks better than most WoT official videos.
The unicum of unicums. A person who taught many, strikes again. Definitely the best wot content creator.
If this video holds is promise( which from the timestamps, it does) this will be a bombshell reverberating through the entire wot community
@@alittlebitintellectual7361it's pretty insightful into the wot community and how much bulshit they can come up with to make themselves feel better lmao
@@theBhavMan You do have a point... a lot of players, especially unicums, compare win rate of other players without understanding that you can be destroyed and still win, or survive and still lose. They also fail to understand that you can be a good player that constantly gets stuck on horrible teams, or a bad player who primarily gets good teams. Basically, they are using win rate to determine how good of a player you are, but win rate is a poor indicator of how good a player really is. Win rate is determined by the teams you are on, and not by the player themselves.
@@jasonpenn5476 its not just wiin rate, its wn8. you can have 100% win rate, but still a poor player
@@mike82y I have seen multiple "unicums" in ingame chat calling other players trash based off the win rate (not wn8). And you just reiterated what I have already said, you can have a great win rate and be a shitty player, but you can also be a great player and have a shitty win rate.
In summary: World of Tanks isn't rigged. The problems are much deeper than that.
23:00 I noticed this with the UDES (t8 medium) and a few other tanks where you'd go to the top gun and despite it having worse accuracy and gunhandling it hits far more consistently. Never knew there was a term for it. 32:50 Also I'd argue that matching up tank types is far more important than matching up skill levels.
I just noticed, that in your video on equipment, at the end, you showed ,,list of things Chems said that turn out to be true", one of the things is WoT will die on 30. November 2023. And this will drop in the same exact date. You have planned it from the beginning, didn't you?
Bigu brain moment
How about:
1. Gather up some money as group
2. Buy the game from WG
3. Make some changes
= Game good again!😲
Yeah but he aint Elon Musk.
🤯🤯🤯
3.1 DELETE ARTILLERY
The richest players generally prefer the game to be the way it is, so no shot
world of tanks costs some millions bro
-23:08-- sigma value means z-score, not standard deviation, it's basically standard deviation normalized against mean. For example, to get the same distribution (identically looking curve) for 0.2 and 0.4 accuracy values, the standard deviation for 0.4 has to be higher to compensate for the higher mean.-
Edit: I was wrong. The above applies to damage calculation, not to shot distribution. Still, the shot spread definitely does NOT follow normal distribution, as mention by Overlord_Prime in his document. And term "sigma" is used because it is established in WoWs.
im a 12 year old orange shitter. i don't get a single word that came out of your mouth sir.
Then what is non-normalized standard deviation?
@@imnotusingmyrealname4566 You're right. I got it mixed up with the damage mechanic.
I would be more interested in Kisly's patent - where good players get their RNG nerfed when engaging against bad players and vice versa to level the gap in skill somewhat in order to prevent bad players from being discouraged and rage quitting WoT forever, or the theory that your RNG is set at the start of the battle which results in games where you hit all your shots, even poorly aimed ones, and the contrary situation where you keep missing from 5 meters or bouncing 100% pen shots.
those are both terrible ideas
Ive been saying this since 2012!!!
I am playing since 2012 and its true if i have terrible RNG its means MM want us to lose and I play way more carefully and tell teammates to be more carefully because we are set to loose.
@@Skogdust total nonsense
@@gameclips5734 it does make sense though and it would be a good idea for WG to implement from the business perspective. It's just terrible for good players and makes the game maddeningly frustrating at times. But if I were WG I would totally implement any technical tweaks to retain players since it directly impacts sales.
HE CAME BACK WITH THE MILK
sejozwak jumpscare in chems comments
@@thatpersoninthecomments8613lmao
I have never seen any WOT CC who have put so much dedication to the content like you, Chems. Good job!
and you still won't see any CC that will put this much dedication beacuse Chems isn't a CC
@@markin2067 I mean... he said he doesn't have a CC account on WOT but he is a WOT content creator. I am just pointing out what I think they meant instead of them actually misunderstanding, or not watching the video
Something i'd like to add to add to the whole booster myth. I don't play WoT but i know similar situations from War Thunder. Once you activate one of those really big boosters, which an f2p player will rarely get, it almost seems like the entire enemy team knows about it and just comes after you exclusively. And while i did often have this experience, it's just that this situation isn't exclusive to the times where you use a booster. I think that the biggest problem with boosters is the promised reward. Let's say you use a 500% booster. Really big payout, especially if you do well that game. But (in the case of WT) since it only lasts one game, you become hyperfocused on maximizing your profit. This has you trying to perform pretty much every action that gives you currency as much as possible, like killing players. But you become so focused on hunting down players and killing them as fast as possible, that you will most likely not see the enemy player who just pulled up behind you. And once the round is over, you're frustrated because, even with the booster, you barely made anything. And all of that, just because you didn't play optimally, but decided to maximize your payout.
Wall of text
Use a big booster in War thunder
Team goes braindead
It's probably a coincidence but God damn I can almost guarantee it secretly puts you with the biggest retards against the best players it can find
This is an hour long video, bruh of course the comments are going to be deep insightful and actually have substance 💀💀 @@mrbruh9537
Yeah, the way our behavior changes because we popped a booster is something he didn't touch on that has an impact too. Then again, impossible to quantify through mathematical means.
2 points from a WOT beta veteran.
1. Re evaluate the game stats from WHEN the "RU is OP" claim was coined, ie. the early days when there were only 3-4 nations..
2. Evaluate the RU RNG values for bouncing enemy fire or enemy shots doing nothing, critical damage received vs dealt. camo and spotting ratings.
Essentially look into the play by play bias, not the total stats.
Bonus, show the stats before and after the Type 59 was introduced, then after it was nerfed.
Super bonus, look at when the Bat Chat was added.... those days caused many broken keyboards.
Great vid.
type is still my best played tank somehow, 56% W/R 3k games
Your second point is completely explained by server lag in the earlier days
id start with GAME MECHANICS advantages that USED to be given to Ru machines - most notably the magically chosen "overmatch mechanic" that was "somehow" set up that guns on German or US side couldnt make use of it most of the time while "SOMEHOW" the armor values for side and roof armors on non USSR tanks were always right in the overmatch sweetspot of the russian 122 or 152mm guns magically had just right caliber to always go through where non USSR 120mm or 150mm guns would not ...
while the BLATANT RU bias of old times when Serb was in charge is long since gone, some of this legacy is still in the game
You were always the best, chems, nobody ever came close. You define art, and it defines you.
Chems worshipper
@@anonimowyunkown33 also known as a gigachad
it was a great video but you’re brown nosing hard lmao
I was expecting somebody would recognise the quote
leave the worshipping to skill fans, eh?
Claus will be 90 in a retirement home trapped in his feedback loop ranting on Soviet bias because he didn't pen a 279e one time.
xD
U.re wrong buddy.claus is a very smart guy,he knows how to sell his stuff;)his drama is pure fake,he.s playin a roll
@@sorinancuta3934 True, he often says his video's are for entertainment purposes himself. Honest.
Claus is just a crybaby clown
Clause's conspiracy rants are damn funny.
Theres also no way hes not just doing it for entertainment value.
He's got a good sense of humour about himself, something that seems to be getting rare lately. Its also why he did some voiceover for this vid.
This looks more like an academic paper than an analysis of the mechanics of a game. Amazing analysis and statistical proficiency! Hats off for this sir!!! And this is coming from someone with the account since 2012 that has played through a lot of periods and rage quit for years at one point:)) Amazing research!
40:26 I didn't actually know there was a *rotation* of maps. I mean, I guess I had heard that somewhere, but I didn't realize I was being cycled through the same set of maps on purpose.
Easily one of the Top 3 best videos you’ve ever made. - Tbh you’re the reason I started my WoT channel to (eventually) create content on the Match maker, Maps, tank designs, and other discussion topics. It’s so refreshing to see that there are people with solid critical thinking skills creating content in this largely NPC player base.
Easily one of the best WOT videos in general . I don't think that I would watch an hour video from anyone else
ill pin ur comment so people sub to you
curious how much failgaming paid.
@@chems damn romanian currency so fucked where the hell is a country that dosent only have like 5% off
@@chems Thank you! 🙏 I appreciate it.
This surely is going to be one of the best videos in the history of world of tanks.
I mean, okay. The maths do math. Still, when your aiming circle doesn't shrink despite having stood still for a long time, you're tracked twice in a row multiple times, you get uptiered many times in a row despite taking continuous Ls, your WR keeps plummeting but you are always bottom tier... can you really blame people for questioning the validity of the game?
Thanks for this Analysis. Very nice to watch this kind of work.
If you need some "more" casual Data (replays) for any further Analysis, i have around 5500 replays from July 21 till today.
0:56:57 Premium Store Exploit 🔥🔥🔥
Me when Chems about to release a new video:
love your videos. very informative. always curious what your next video will be about. good luck.
I love when Chems makes valuable educational video that gives you more insight about Life than the game "masked" as a World of Tanks video. Thanks for being real Chems kuddos to you stay real as always!
He is missing the point.. If I change the results just by 0.15%.. Then over the amount wins\lose..Hit's\Damage.. etc...I can change the results of that player over time. WG knows this so they make sure to keep players at the 50% WR....
I swear if this is a troll, like an hour long compilation of Claus Kellerman, then Im gonna loose it.
The title alone is gonna piss off a lot of EU forum users
I don’t get the hate towards EU player base. I’ve seen plenty of NA players in games who straight up shit talk about EU players calling us names, like why?
@@mihaivo_ I'm part of the EU playerbase, I'm not referring to the players, just the EU forum members who literally lose their minds if you suggest there could be anything wrong with the game lol
1:01:30
Fellow WoTB player here. Seeing your obj 780 argument makes me think of the collector tank system we have here. There was a time when tanks like the T-22 medium was considered a broken tank and it was sold for as high as 22.5k gold. After all these years, instead of not getting your gold's entire worth after buying the tank (for all premiums, you never do), you at least get 7.5k gold when you sell it.
The opposite can be said as well because of the crate system we have (WHICH VERY, VERY RNG HEAVY). Thanks to the Mystery Boxes that we get annually, people can get away with spending 500-42.5k gold (each price tag gives you certain amount of crates) with a 5% chance to give you a mystery certificate, which is guaranteed to give you a tank. But the tank can range between T5-10 and can be a premium or collector.
By a stroke of luck (which adds to the amount of randomness World of Whatever games have) I managed to get 3 tier 10 collectors; The Badger, T95e6 and T-22 medium and a T9 collector, the Obj 752 for only 4.5k gold that I grinded for free just because I got that 5% drop chance four times within the 13 chances I had.
Remember, if you feel like you’re out of luck; just take a break and continue if you want. There’s no point raging in this game because it won’t change how the game works (That Streamer who injured himself in chem's video)
I wasn't expecting bro to pulled out the whole calculation, pythagoras, and and a whole particle accelerator diagrams just to shit talk wot 💀
I love how chems at the same time makes some of the lowest effort and highest effort wot videos 😂
I'm not claiming that mercy shots are real, however part of the argument for them is that it's concealed in a far more complex and sinister manner. It's not just damage that you lowroll, it's also penetration rolls AND accuracy rolls. The claim is that first you are more likely to miss, second that you are less likely to pen and third that you are less likely to roll high. Looking at just the damage doesn't fully cover the mercy shot claim.
To all those wondering if Claus Kellerman participated in the video, I highly doubt it, and I may be Wong, but it sounds more like his voice is AI generated using an a AI voice changer.
the winsxwn8xdamage is a very poorly chosen metric. Wn8 already includes damage and win rates featured prominently in its equation. wn8 is modified to explicitly shape its expectations of performance on the actual outcomes of games. It has to support your question. Kind of like saying the scale is correct because it measures your weight as the same amount as a machine that is based on the readout of the scale to verify its correctness. It's right because you have defined it as correct. (I was a contributor to wn8 btw, so am familiar with the subject for what that is worth.)
Chems is like playboi carti, everyone wants him to drop, he denies, and comes with a huge comeback once in a while.
,,Twenty yrs old, ayy twenty mil owned and i need 30 for show"
Playboy Carti sucks ass
One thing you forgot about is the massive advantage p2w mechanics give, that being having access to the best tanks in the game just by default having better pen/ shell velocity having better crews better equipment directives and so on. Those base stat advantages in a largely rng based game make for a massively different gameplay experience then any non 100k games free to play player could ever experience. Other then that great vid
No. Good ammo, good crews and directives can be achieved by f2p players as well.
@@juanzulu1318wrong. no way a f2p can achieve that.. You are talking about one occasional match but they would never reach the same level at same point in time.
firstly they would need to focus on very few tanks as they continously get less crew XP. Secondly, f2p will simply not have enough credits for continuous use of premium ammo, food, directives etc so their gun will mostly have worse RNG. 3rd, they won't be able to access all OP premium tanks that exists nowadays and are in every single match.
Basically in theory, P2W is pay to cheat to get better than others, not by skills but similar as doping like in sports.
IT depends. If you're better at the game, yuo get more wins, more damage, which nets you more credits per game. F2P and being shit at the game is a really bad combination. F2p with a good player is doable. But paying 10 bucks a month on average makes the game so much more convenient its dumb not to pay it, if you play a lot.@@izznix
@@izznix yes, the grind is longer. But this wasnt the topic. A f2p player has all the options in a match as all the other players. Neither is wot rigged nor are f2p players treated unfairly in a match.
@@izznix F2P player can use these things occasionally. P2W player can use them constantly. For example, if I was a P2W player, there are hardly any vehicle with which I would bother at all to carry any non-gold ammo. I´d just load full gold into each battle. I have done that a few times when I had some prem time, and it makes the game SO MUCH easier if you dont have to decide whether to fire gold or not. Let alone the fact that some guns have prem ammo that has literally 0 downsides (4example standard AP vs better gold AP, or APCR vs better APCR).
And that doesnt even take into account the elephant in the room - the constant powercreep of the newest premium tanks. Look at tier VIII, about 90% of standard "silver" tanks are completely outmachted by the previous strongest gold VIII, and 100% of them are completely outmatched by the current one, and if this one will be outmatched by the next one. Look just at the BZ. It is a VIII tier that is not just comparable to most IX tiers, but outright comparable to some X tiers.
A very interesting and well structured argument. There is one itch to scratch though. If the definition of Rigging is, "The game manipulated by dishonest means" then the null is, there is no evidence in the data to support this. At 33:10 a statement is made, the MM does attempt to influence the result by moving the player(s) to be top or bottom tier. Does the game tell the player this? Is changing the match parameters to either help you win or lose transparent and honest? Going back to the null, if after the MM tier adjustment is made is there evidence that the win rate of the players moves up or down? Would that meet the stated criteria?
The answer may well lie in Behavioural Game Design. I can't post links without CZcams deleting the comment but it is easy to find. The hypothesis being WG wish to manipulate the result to create a 'schedule' for the player. Such as the daily challenges, e.g. win 4 games.
I think the "soviet bias" myth came from old times, when accuracy was good, and you could have hit shots while moving on your extremely innacurate IS-3 or KV-1s
As a WoT Player who took statisics in Uni last semester, this video is a damn gem!
For someone who didnt get taught statistics in uni its solid i guess. But honestly its not that incredibly well made. (e.g. for the second part I dont think a z-test would be correct to use. Im no expert tho).
Interestingly enough the p-values are actually surprisingly low (for the common alpha of 0.05 in psychology the difference between chems and daki would be significant in fact). But its debatable what alpha should be used here anyways.
My biggest pet peeve is that he said the null-hypothesis is true, while all we can say is that we cant reject it. (Also there are way to many confounding variables to really make a valid point anyways.)
@@Oerwing Thats a certified bruh moment right here. Just out of curiousity, did you hear anything about the null-hypothesis before this video? Cuz it really seems like you didnt.
@@ntray3729 yep I did hear about it before. But I dont see whats the bruh Moment here. You pointing out to me (and maybe explain more than just saying im wrong) where im mistaken exactly, would be helpful.
Sorry to say but statistics course you got through getting that Psychology degree had not even covered 25% of information and understanding about given topic in comparison to statistics course during a data science/analytical/engineering degree. He lowered the alpha to 0.01 to test game mechanics in "hardest scenario".@@Oerwing
@@ukasztaflinski4618 im totally aware, that psychology tends to use more liberal alpha-values. And maybe I shouldnt have mentioned it, as it is somewhat arbitrarily chosen anyways.
And by no means I think im an expert in statistics.
However from how chems talked about the Test and Conclusions I just got the feeling he isnt either (if he happens to have studied data-science or a related field he does know more about statistics than me. I just know hes a wot CZcams, nothing more about him.).
One thing id like to add to the grille thing:
-the grille has abbismal shell velocity on ap and heat, and the way aiming works makes it so if youre leading a target, then according to the game youre just aiming further away than where the target will be, therefore the shell will look like it misses by alot, when in reality it may not deviate by that much, but the arch of the low velocity shell cause it to go further away than where you wanted to aim (i hope what i said is understandable, it would be better if i could draw or smth).
Nailed it. The game automatically compensates for shell drop based on where you're aiming, so if you're trying to lead a shot with a low-velocity gun on a skylined target, you're almost certainly going to miss. Even on flat ground, you have to aim low at the dirt a few hundred meters behind the target to trick the game into giving you the ballistic arc you need.
Its one of the ways that war thunders mechanics are better; the shell is just a parabolic arc, with a bit of deviation set at the start, rather than some code trying to 'help' you by working out what youre trying to hit first.
Very good piece.
Time flew with so much different topics covered.
Glad some of that "myths" got squished perfectly.
Funny thing is: I took almost a year off in 2021 to 2022 because the game fucked me up so much.
Well, not the game but the Matchmaking.
Since then I count all my random battles played (no platoon and only randoms) to see whether the MM treats me fairly,
meaning whether the matchmaking roughly evens out top tier to low tier battles...
Still gathering data, maybe you are interested.
I would give it to you.
@chems is there a mod that will record the information of my shot pattern? like you show @ 23:46
This video is undoubtedly the greatest video you have made made and is a must watch for ALL WOT players. Your hard work will pay off. This video will reach over a million views, guaranteed
Its not that great, if he wanted to truly question Russian bias then he needed to check game from beginning, (not last 2 years,) if he wanted to check CC and streamers, then he needed to check their MM (if they have better MM then rest of players, then they dont anything else) and so on....
@@SadMadBadBoro So are you saying that there was Russian bias from the beginning and wargaming decided to change sometime after? and the part about the MM how is that related to Russian bias and RNG for their guns?
@@CodeB_4cpp Game had different priorities from the beginning until current state, now is pure money grabbing with more and more retarded meta crap (just look Mountain pass version now,) all i said is that if someone want to analysis bias, than u need to check that topic from beginning and compare for instance Germany versus Russian tanks, all that T-22, 279, 268v4, 907 and rest OP tanks from one side to another (WT e100) and so on...
Potential special MM has nothing to do with rng, only with topic about special treatment for CC and streamers, if they have that, then all other real or imaginary bonuses is not important at all...
@@SadMadBadBoro ok lets forget about any form of bias several years ago since we cant prove it. He just proved that there was none in the past 2 years. So can we agree on that?
@@CodeB_4cpp How can we not prove it? IMO its not so hard. Ofc we can agree that there is no clear bias in near past, but game from the start did have some things thats he referred to, like silent nerfing (Lowe was OP after released, then they silently nerfed him after 2 weaks or so,) ok now they dont do that so obviously, but that doesnt mean that they didnt do such a things in the past or that they dont do that now at all...
36:45 "shadow nerfs" are just people getting used to fighting those tanks and learning their weaknesses which makes them lose their "element of suprise"
u rly think skorpoin have same accuracy now compare whan they put him in game
@@ziginaigra if it wasn't actually nerfed/bufed yeah
the thing is you may feel like the tank got better because you got better at the game too or it could feel like its worse just because you are not as lucky anymore
Also keep in mind that the first few battles (probably 10) and if you haven't played in a long time are more likely to be top-tier.
Guys, how can I like this vid more than once?
@chems you did more for educating the population on statistics than the universities!
This video is legendary. Well explained, well visualized, and well thought out. well done. :D
My god this has been such a banger! So well written and perfectly explained , with plenty of proof to back it up with. We really appreciate all the effort that you've put into this , and i truly hope this gets more recognition. W video chems
23:40 the term sigma also comes from an actual “named” value World of Warships uses which I’ve noticed also started being used for WOT to describe standard deviation. For example the Japanese ships tend toactively have better sigma values than the other nations
Sigma has been used for standard deviation since 1894; nothing to do with WoWS beyond WG using a standard statistical term.
Wall of text
yo chems, just fyi, the 3d skin you've made for the kpz 07 p(e) has some kind of texture issue, if i get too close to the barrel, my MoE fades away, this problem doesnt persist with any other of the skins i've downloaded from your page, so i just wanted to let you know, and maybe know how to fix it myself if needed
Shadownerf был бы мифом, если бы о нем сами разработчики из Wargaming бы не проговорилась в своих официальных постах на форуме.
"МОЙ БЕДНЫЙ КВ-5" (просто я люблю КВ-5) и другие.
П.С. Ну и понимая уровень здешней аудитории добавлю. У РАЗРАБОТЧИКОВ спрашивали на форуме: "А почему с патчем Х.ХХ броня конкретного танка стала тоньше (модель в клиенте изменилась, очень легко отследить) (мой бедный КВ-5, до нерфа еще) в тех-то местах, а в ОФИЦИАЛЬНЫХ PATHNOTES об этом ни слова. Но это не shadownerf - это другое. А некоторые разрабы, просто dawn.
Great Video! I like the development of your channel and your personality as it is actually pleasan to watch - unlike playing the game itself. It seems that you are now just moderately trolling instead of being the incarnation of chaos and i actually like it.
Ps: This (36:26) screenshot of the skin is kinda epic, isn't it?
Highly respect the effort that went into this, and honestly, this stuff makes tons of sense - WG always has been about money, and to make money you need playerbase retention, especially when it comes to players that are rich or have at least SOME disposable income.
I use to be a clan Fugitives long ago and one of the leaders was on the wot website and wot posted a page pretty much saying that bad players get a little bit better rng. Another member log in and saw it but the page was taken down pretty quickly. It was talked about for a while in the clan. No one was surprised cause we kind of already new. I can normally call a game based on what rng is doing in the first 2-3 minutes of play. I have a 99.8 percent accuracy in calling a game based on that. I also normally know whats going to happen. ie what module is going to get damage. Its like clock work. When you take a well aim shot into the ass end of a tank that might have 55mm armor with a gun that is 250mm pen on the worst shot bounces or my fav crit hit with no damage when it matter and it happens way to many times its either rigged or the mechanic is so broken that wg refuses to fix it.
What information does the support request from you if you want to change your place of residence? When you change your place of residence, kan you still play on the eu server? Can you still place your place of residence back?
Went in for wargaming ramble, left with a life lesson. What a legend, love the vids. Please keep making them. I'll listen to anything, as long as it is by chems.
This is probably the most well made video essay about WOT I've ever seen, chems always delivers
I only noticed really bad teams... Losing 15 games per day for 2 months and 0 wins... That's what made me to quit game completely. I did miss, hit, bouce, ammo racked, got ammo racked and all that was fair actually. But around 100 lose streak was really bashing and I'm not sure it was even possible until actually happened.
The ccrng was really WARPACK; LOTS of purple clans offered me cheats when I was a green/teal FC... Field Commanders HAD to be purple for ClanWars!
The lowroll RNG was noticed by my guild since before 2013!
The Rigged MM was in a WG patent from >5yra... ELO is also rigged in MOBAs.
@@ynraider cheats are completely different. They are not part of WG RNG
bro, i can't even describe how much i respect you after that video. I have no words..., really.
You have got new watcher and new subscribe right now, and also i will share this video if i find opportunity to do this.
Love to you
At what point will people realize that Wargaming is making op premiums because the playerbase refuses to play balanced premiums
As someone who has played WoTs for 10-11 years, thank you for opening my eyes. I've definitely felt like World of Tanks was rigged at times. I will definitely feel like it is rigged at times in the future, but then I will remember this video. Thank you.
It is rigged as hell. Had to turn off xvm-like mods cause the rng bullshit was making me burnout and quit wot a lot of times. I will never forget when i was the only guy not red or orange or just red players and me vs 11 purple and 4 blue players. This wasn't one battle, every 3-4 battles on average you got placed like this with 5%-20% win chance (btw 5% is the lowest possible). Nowadays i got ammoracked every 20 games of average (every 2-4 battles on russian X tiers), ammo rack damaged every 2-4 games, while i cannot dice roll to damage enemy ammo rack more than once every ~30 games or destroy someone with it more than once every hundreds of battles. I know most of the weakspots, tank eq placement etc. so it is mostly RNG issue. I played since ~2011; RNG of this game changed A LOT during all this years. Either you quit the game or play long enough to be on the WG RNG blacklist like me and propably you too.
What around the time when WG nerfed HE and T49 was penetrating all meds for 900hp on the side. Shorty, WG made some adjustments or a mocro match (can't recall) and HE didn't pen shit anymore. So yeah. They do change secretly stuff. They screwed up the change, something was malfuncioning, and they secretly adjust it.
Brilliant video! Btw, what software/website was used at 18:38 ?
the time and effort put into this is something that other wot creators (and just creators in general) cant even fucking FATHOM. gorgeous work
on EU 15-3 Result is SO common and most of my looses are that result
all that is random 😂
sure they are i play game for 10 years man i know it isnt becase rng on those games are afwul and rolst o loosing team@@ziginaigra
Chems the mercy shot part, you didn’t add that HE rounds can also do much less then the shots average damage. Makes sense the average damage is a bit lower. I agree, with your points and am trying to add to it. I don’t know if you only took values from ap or if you took average shot damage.
I witnessed first hand that rng can change. I was above average until i got into an "argument" with an in game mod (back in the day where you could shoot em for gold for the first time). After that day my shots simply missed, low rolls were the normal, damage blocked by armor was rare, matchmaking was basically always lowest tier. I must note that clanwars were unafected, there the rng was normal. I stopped playing long time ago. The account is still active so you can test if you want, maybe it will surprise you.
I have never played the Grille so the bloom stats were very interesting to see
After 12 years of playing I can say that the game IS manipulated and it has gotten worse... there is a lot of video evidence on the Internet, direct shots that do not hit the target, shots that hit directly and that come from positions where THERE ARE NO TANKS... etc... Remember, it is a business and an increasingly ambitious one.
actually WOT player numbers are dropping so WG need more money from less players just to stay even.
got some evidence?
There is also such a thing as server lag and correction thereof.
yeah, of course your personal experience is more accurate than scientific proof
I don't even play WOT and this video was EXTREMELY entertaining, really well done on the video, I know nothing about it and it was really informative.
The only thing I have to criticize this video on is the whole section on argentinian prices, and that's because it's inaccurate, you see, if you are from the US, your rate of exchange with the dollar is 1:1, per sé, you are paying what your currency is worth, so $4 for you is $4, BUT, $4 in argentinian pesos is 10-12x times that, being 1500 pesos.
Now, I could be talking out of my ass here, so forgive me if I am, but I am quite sure that the reason why those discounts are needed are because regional pricing is needed, or else you're just locking players from poorer countries away from the content, it's why Steam has regional pricing.
And exploiting that only fucks people up from those countries, because of people exploiting and using VPNs to buy games at a cheaper price in other countries on Steam, like for example, Argentina, Steam has now locked them into only being able to buy games with the USD prices, which skyrocketed the prices of games.
So maybe instead the playerbase should STOP buying things from WG and demand more fair prices, after all, the companies only listen when their bottom line is hurt, and they do listen when they're pressed for money.
sorry Chems, but WG's rigging is way more subtle than can be detected by calculations of weighted averages.
To prove their rigging, one would need access to very detailed datasets including players' data.
The two main areas I suspect to be rigged are: RNG on hitting weakspots and matchmaking.
But the rigging does not take place all the time, it's intermittent and therefore difficult to detect.
My hunch is that it depends on if the player is a returning/occasional player, a paying customer, a potential customer, etc. and then this plays into the time when a battle is played and how the online player population is at that time, that's why my winrates drop to the bottom during holiday, weekends, etc.
Accept the fact that you're a low IQ trashcan🗑️. Cant accept that others are better because than you because they actually put in the effort to learn the game instead of wasting their time and writing excuses under yt videos😂
i would imagine you would say
"Yes, and it's because of Artillery's entire existence"
wordington
Absolutely excellent video Chems!
Your portion on the Grille's accuracy and bloom is something everyone needs to see. My tiny little CZcams channel gets zero attention in comparison, but I've tried to explain the hard stats vs soft stats. Nice to see all the work you've done to show hard data over large sample sizes.
Thanks for all the effort and dedication I know went into this. Had to take a lot.
Strong video! Ones mindset is the most important indeed. The reason I stopped playing, a health issue, it over times triggered too many negative emotions (frustration, anger, helplessness, uselessness). Thus the enjoyment started degrading, till I recognized the above had commonalities with struggles one can go through in real life: depression.
Excellent video! Really appreciate the time you put into this! I have one thing to say about the aim RNG based on my experience and numbers. I compared my Su 130pm and my Skorp. The Skorp is the most accurate it can be using equipment and great crew. My Su 130pm on the other hand is not at its 100% max accuracy that the game allows. Based on the numbers purely, my Skorp should hit a lot more shots compared to the 130pm, yet the Skorp misses a lot more. There is an almost 3% difference in hit ratio for the 130pm, yet it has the less accurate gun.... This is something I can only explain with WG sorcery that is biased towards my 130pm. Happy New Year and all the best for 2024!
Or the 130pm has better turret, hull, and movement dispersion values, and the 130pm has a faster shell velocity making it easier to hit some shots.
Or you play your 130pm differently, consciously or subconsciously, because it has 'worse' accuracy.
My 277 has 4% better hit ratio than my Leo 1. Does that mean Russian bias? No, its just way easier to hit something when you're 15m away in a city with the 277 than 500m sniping with the Leo.
@@RedSpottedToad I also considered this before I commented but I play both as bushwankers…. Your example of a Leo and 277 is not exactly appropriate here, given those are 2 vehicles for 2 different purposes. I don’t go closer in the 130pm compared to my Skorp as both have no armour. As far as I can tell, I play them the same. I’ll do more numbers with a few mods (dispersion mainly) to validate and support what I’m saying.
Great video. You really dug into the theories.
But man do I wish WG would make MM +/-1. I'm so tired of working on stock tech tree tier 8s and getting throw into endless Tier X matches. Feels like the match is already decided when your armor can't do squat against them spamming gold and yours wont punch their tanks.
That and million other things WG should have done years ago. But they will never fix the game. Thats why Im waiting for steel aces :)
Try again with the Object 477, that thing is 99% unimpenetrablefrom front and sides. To say "i have no problem pining the 477" is just wreckless, considering the vast majority of "real" players, not bots, are either Ftp and use a lower pen tank or use a premium with lower pen rate. I've been in games where 5 tanks have been on top of the 477 blasting it from all over and their shots would bounce while the 477 continued to pound out damage, no matter the angles.
As you look quite good in statistics I have a question:
I have several rather similar tanks, so similar in fact that they can be defined as identical (Mutz & Pz58 for example).
I played both for around 900 matches. Strangely, I have, for example, 52% WR in the one and 47% in the other.
How can this be explained? I would expected that the WR is more or less the same. Is the sample too small? Or is the player's influence in the outcome of a match lower than we expected?
I have seen this phenomenom on other accounts as well. And for some tanks it is also identifiable in the game data...
first i would ask if you played them concurrently or if you played one for a while and then the other. presumably if you played them equally every day then the winrates would be similar, in which case it's probably just the sample size, they might both be tending towards 49/50%.
@@gameclips5734 yes, I would have assumed the same. But the stats just dont match.
I play them in parallel and both have around 700 matches each.
The simple fact that i stopped playing WoT like 2 years ago but this video helped me combat my friends "bias" beliefs from War Thunder is just so funny (like the Booster MM or CCMM), also amazing video, felt like watching a documentary lmao, great job chems
those are different tbh.but can understand your perspective
I don't understand why chems simply dismissed War Thunder like it's not a tank game even to talk about. I understand that many WoT-refugees complains about COMBINED matches where they get nuked by plantes, helis or drones but thats realistic warfare for you...
@@LViruz maybe, just maybe, because this video isn't about War Thunder?
I think russian bias can be explained by different design philosophies. German tanks are usually big boxy blocks, you just have to load gold to pen. Russian tanks often smaller, have more armour on the side and plates are well angeled, you actually have to hit the weakspot to pen. Like for example obj 257 or Lt 420 and E75 or HWK.
I don't hear that myth anywhere near as much now as about 6 years ago when I started playing on console. Maybe there was some truth to it then, I don't know. You would have to dig up old statistic from years ago, assuming they still exist, and even then, it wouldn't have any relevance the current version of the game given how much has changed.
Very good video. One aspect that i would still have loved to seen touched is map bans. I have banned fjords ever since map bans are a thing and have unbanned it 7 times since then. I have also then played on fjords every single one of these seven times within three matches of unbanning it. Since its a small sample size it doesnt hold that much meaning but it would be an interesting topic to see investigated.
I've had the same thing happen every time I've tried unbanning Tundra. And not just getting Tundra right after unbanning it, I mean getting it quite literally three times in a row right after unbanning it. That map is TRASH.
Im not conspiracy theorist but for 12 years in WoT my 2 cents. As someone who was 2500wn8 avg and 60-65% wr per sesion (peak overal climbed 57% in 30k battles) struggle to maintain in last 2-3 year 50% wr. My sessions are like 40-50% mostly while my wn8/wot rating or whatever is pretty good. My overall dropped to 54-55% and still declines.
Old tanks which i dont play anymore with 500-1000 battles are around 60% wr. In last 2-3 years im happy if tank reach 50%. Something is fishy there.
I think matchmaking is an issue
as a wargaming hater, I dont believe any rig topics. People cry when they encounter unlucky thing, but dont even react when they get lucky. So their mind only stores unlucky moments.
It has something to do with human evolution to remember bad things more intensely than the good things to survive.
u can get lucky or unlucky 10-15 times in row
chems uploads a vid :😊👍
only to realise its a trailer
Greetings @Chems!
Unfortunately i have been banned without Propper Reasoning just like you did. After trying to reach out to them trough Tickets, i had to fight myself trough
the Jungle of Automated Answer, and after opening Ticket under another Subject i finally got my Answer from the Support. They told me that i could ask further Questions
but all the Sudden on the Ticket, i wasnt able to answer duo to some "Website" issues. It told me to check my Information that ive entered, i did and nothing changed no matter how i changed the text. So i created another Ticket, and all the sudden in the new-Ticket i was able to answer regularly but in the old one not.
So far ive tried everything to get my Account unbanned as i have been banned without a reasoning, its only a 7-Day Ban but yet i dont feel propperly "dealt" with. I more and more understand your Reasonings about WoT.
Sincerly just a Viewer :)
I haven't played this game in probably ~4 years now? And I've never watched any of your videos, or even heard of your channel before, but for some reason, this video just really sucked me in, and I ended up watching the whole hour of it. Great work!
I know many will miss this preview, but it's fucking fire
I bet its nuanced and deep. But i cant make heads or tails out of it.
I don't care what anyone says, there is Russian bias, and the game is rigged. Every game company does this (I know because I'm a game developer). They do it because it's proven time and time again make money, and get people to pay money.
Ever notice when you're a winning streak, suddenly you get a bunch of tomatoes on your team, and you start hitting low on rolls consistently? It happens too consistently to be random, the pattern is there.
It's easy enough to tweak this so people even looking for it have difficulty seeing it, and intelligent people, like Chems, are even easier to trick and manipulate, because if you tweak the ratios just right, you can hide it from people who only care about digging into the "facts" and "statistics".
An example of this, is when he almost finds the truth of winning ratios at 4:00 mark, then asys, well.. that's also in line with how many tanks there are, and USSR has more, so naturally they're going to win more.. Well no, that's a logical fallacy and one many intelligent people like to bank on, which makes it easy to manipulate.. The reason why USSR has the most tanks, is because they are the easiest to win with, thus they make more tanks to sell in the USSR tree, USA being second because in Russia they think there is a USA bias (which there is to some degree). Germany and UK also get 3rd and 4th because those are also 2 very famous and important parts of the time frame, and they've been out longer than any other tech tree.
That's not to say other nations don't have great tanks, they do. However, I still remember when I was first playing.. I played for a year and still "sucked" at the game. I was playing Germany. I then switched to Russian tanks, and my win rate sky rocketed from 30% to 70%, because the tanks were just that much easier to play.
Things have since changed from 7 years ago though, a lot less new players, a lot more knowledgeable players, gold ammo now being accessible by silver, and other contributing factors to bring even in the bias and easy mode of USSR tanks into line, they are still easily, the most free win.
Is WoT Rigged? of course it is.. EVERY multiplayer game today is rigged.. They will throw in a few extra terrible players on your team and stack teams slightly just enough to make a slight difference, but not enough to be in your face obvious, just enough to get you invested and upset to want to throw money or feel engaged, without making you quit. That's the sweet spot every game company goes for.
From COD, to WoT, to League of Legends.
It is beatable because its not jacked up to 110%, very good players can still overcome this to some degree, and its usually the very good players who will vouch it doesn't exist, while other sheep insist they must know what they're talking about because they're good players, thus, the perfect manipulation happens.
Game companies have literally spent millions in researching manipulation like this, and it's become such a norm in the game industry nobody even thinks about it, they just do it, because it works, and they've figured out how to manipulate the players so completely while doing it.
Quick note on the Shadow nerfs. I think that the statistics (as win rate, wn8 and so on) can get worse a while after the tank is released. Why? Because casuals are continuing to play those tanks. I bet that the strongest of players jump into those tanks on release to get aces and 3 mark them as soon as possible and they move on, therefore they increase the high end of statistics on release, leaving average and weak players with those tanks a month or so after.
This is such a good video. I will rewatch it in the future, like your other videos, but it does suck to see most of those theories being debunked and that the problem lies within ourselves (and with the op premiums lol), even though we all knew in the back of our head that those theories were, well, conpiracies.
You missed the cursed tanks myth, or is there a myth like that? I always use it on my tanks. If i have two clone tanks, one gets 55% winrate and one stays at 20% for the same amount of games played. I call one of them my cursed tank :D
Ah, like my Cromwell (60+% WR with hundreds of battles) or my Cromwell B (which is actually a better tank, and has a 45% WR over tens of battles).