The German Development Model: On The Brink of Collapse?
VloĆŸit
- Äas pĆidĂĄn 4. 12. 2022
- The rapid and continuous growth of the German economy reached its peak.
Does the current development model still stand?
Welcome to The 20s Report.
đ Support GTBT on Patreon! / gtbt
âĄïž Paypal: paypal.me/GoodTimesBadTimes
Research & analysis: Hubert Walas
Video production: Ćukasz Szypulski i Hubert Walas
Voiceover: Hubert Walas
3D photo animations: BartĆomiej Hurko
Business inquiries:
goodtimesbadtimes@lighthouseagents.com
Channel Angels:
Santa Barbra Chocolate: www.santabarbarachocolate.com/
Mr Probot: www.mrprobot.com/
Sebastian James [Humanistic Psychoteraphy]: www.sebastianjames.cz/
đșïž Maps: aescripts.com/geolayers/?aff=90
đŠTwitter - / goodbadtimes_
đ Facebook - / good-times-bad-times-1...
Sources:
bit.ly/GermanyGTBT
#germany #russia #china
đ Support GTBT on Patreon! www.patreon.com/GTBT
⥠Paypal: paypal.me/GoodTimesBadTimes
:)
Germany is not about to collapseâŠ. They are about to go back to trading with Russia and not destroying their country to help the most corrupt country in Europe who was literally shelling (for years) the very territories they lost.
remember when the German delegation laughed at trump for stating the obvious at the UN summit , we get it he wasnât the greatest guy but boy did the Germans look stupid overlooking a huge geopolitical change to benefit them after the US has and continue to protect them.
"modest military and financial assistance", dude Germany is the second highest forign aid to ukraine. How did you mess up this well documented fact?
That was great, you covered everything correctly, awesome job. Video suggestions - Why the EU is levying fines against French and Dutch farmers and furthermore in this time of looming World hunger 3,000 farms. Germany evidently wants to make everyone paid more for food and those that can't can starve, as they are talking about mandating Organic Farming only and reducing or eliminating fertilizer????
I'm old enough to remember when Japan was the "next" economic super power, Mexico was about to take off as economic power, nobody mentioned China, and Europe was about to become completely irrelevant. Long term economic predictions are usually poor at best. Based on track records I'm optimistic that Germany and Europe will reinvent themselves economically as a result of this current reset.
Living in Germany I dont see it yet. It's getting more and more Business unfriendly here.
that's because the predictors of those "news" are usually not liberal economists, but more statists types. Classically liberal economists are much more weary of prediction making.
Well for mexico, it's still true
My predictionsin the coming 20 years: China will fall sharp, Africa will rise sharp, America Wil decline slowly, Europe will stagnate growth, (east grow, west stagnate, south decline) east Asia will stagnate, west Asia will rise sharp
Unlike Japan, certain European countries like the UK and France allows immigration which keeps their populations relatively young and ensures their economies grow
Thing with Germany is that their big companies make a relatively little part of their overall economy.
Also they export a lot of their labor to China and import a lot of resources from other countries. Look at BMW for example it's a German Company with plants In China and imported resources from Africa. So domestically it doesn't really help the German people as much compared to a country like Japan with Toyota.
Yes, the powerhouse of Germany aren't the big industries - the smaller family owned business are much more important - and they have generation based long term strategies. It doesn't matter, what Germanys gouvernment decides for improving the situation for the big 30 companies, as long as the family companies have a stabile playground in the long term.
Yup. Middlestadt are where the German economy is. Itâs funny how most people are totally unaware of this reality in the German industrial and manufacturing sector.
â@@LRRPFco52 Mittelstand
We are all spellcheck Nazis when you slaughter our beautiful language :-)
I think itâs a good thing when wealth is more split than only those big companies
2021: Why do we need militaries? Its barbaric!
2022: Where is our military? We need to increase the military.
2030: Why do we need militaries?
It is easy to claim the high ground when you live under the protective umbrella of the worlds super power.
The moment the US pulled back or someone dares to challenge herâŠ. Everyone realizes humans are barbaric and war is the natural state.
Exactly a dumb german politician thinking pattern!!!
Looool some people are like that in the US. Thankfully no one listens to them
@@tongpoo8985 last we checked, they've been saying "why do we need ALL military"
@@BazzBrother Thats not true. You have some folks who dont want a military.
The main problem bringing all points in this video together, is that post-WW2 Germany has been run more like a corporation, rather than a nation state with real geopolitical interests.
I keep shaking my head when people act like Germany is just another nation.
We literally have highest % of people who approve of the EU theoretically replacing the entire state out of the entire union for a reason. Classical nationalism is as good as none existent in Berlin.
German interests are a term you Iâll basically never hear in any major public debate.
We are not like other nation states. I would go so far as to argue that we will never be like them ever again.
@@Arcaryon it seems as tho the post WW2 dismantling of the German state was a overcompensatory and short sighted solution. Instead of sucking the nationalistic Geist of the people, they should have preserved German identity and self interest but also integrate German national identity into the western block. Now we see the consequences of running a nation with no spiritual spine, they cannot compete in a geopolitical game that does not prioritize economic growth. Putinâs move to invade Ukraine probably perplexed the merkelites for this very reason. Iâd also posit that this void of national direction in the current regimes gives a chance for more extremist and opportunist movement to try their luck and my capturing the public conscious.
@@Arcaryon Wait until Hitler wakes up đ
@@Arcaryon Europe need a strong Germany, and that means a nationalistic and militaristic Germany, where the old Prussian values are revitalized. This need will eventually act as an incentive for Germany to develop exactly like that, no matter what it might mean for the future.
Personally I would have liked a "Greater Germania", where all the Germanic nations could unite in an alliance, and even share a common language, currency and religion (Protestant Christianity is very much focused in Germanic nations).
The languages of UK, Holland, Germany and the Scandinavian nations are alike, just like our religions, culture etc.
Also, importantly, it would be a block of power that would rival USA, Russia and China, if not become the leader of them all.
@@elvenkind6072 did you just describe the Nazi dream of a united Europe under the rule of berlin? German nationalism is very very different basically non existed any more or subtle and indirect. We a proud of the German Companies, products, quality and people not the state.
German saw what stupid nationalism and thinking you are better leads to multiple times. But Germans still need a goal so we do what we do best - work hard - and design best quality products we can and sell them
We don't care about military because we have European and nato buffer states in every direction.
Scholz is a big part of the problem. He was finance minister for years under Merkel and is called the "Scholzomat" by his own party to describe his robot-like defending of indefendable positions.
Yeah, he seems weak and with no ambition to change anything fundamentally.
He is the needed (corrupt) bureaucrat to sustain that surveillance state.
You guys think Germany is the fucking US? The chancellor is not that important, the government apparatus behind Scholz is far more important.
You are the guys that think reading a Bild headline is enough to be informed đ€Šââïž
@Boba
Scholz may appear "weak." But if he really is, then primarily because his party has plenty of councillors and other activists who will require _quite some time_ to adapt to their party's U-turn.
Germany's Social Democrats had been anti-militarists since their political movement was established in the 1860s. Even if their party 1890-1930 was the largest of all German parties, their influence was scarce. 1920-30, Social Democrats led a couple if weak shortlived coalition cabinets. Then they remained in opposition til 1972. But the Christian Democrats, in majority 1949-72, weren't particularly militarist either. The Allies saw to that.
And 1972 was the beginning of new, much less belligerent, politics vis-a-vis the Soviet Union. This change of tone is Willy Brandtâs legacy and, rightly or wrongly, seen as a vindication because it became a success. _Diplomacy worked where invasions had failed. They had been right and the nationalists had been wrong, all along! Germany's experience 1972-2022 "proves" that._
Now Scholz says the anti-militarism was wrong and a mistake. That is a bitter medicine to swallow for party activists used to focus on their local and regional needs. Foreign policies aren't their cup of tea.
Germany's constitution, which was chiefly an Allied construct, is quite different from France's, Britain's and the United States'.
German chancellors have a considerably weaker role than the UK Primeminister, the French president or Washington's power brokers.
The 16 state governments (and their proud Heads of Government) have to be coordinated and persuaded, primarily from the chancellor's office. The task is sometimes referred to as "herding cats," an art Angela Merkel learned to master.
Germany will regret Scholzâs China hugging. Has Germany learned nothing about harnessing itself to kleptocratic dictatorships?
but the real question is what a downturn in germany could mean for the rest of the eurozone. Neighboring countries such as Austria, Poland and especially the Netherlands benefit from a well-functioning German economy. If Germany sneezes, we catch a cold
North America , EU ,Australia ,Japan and South Korea better work together.
Relying on dictatorships is a risk.
Poland isn't in Eurozone.
Besides the point. German industrial production index is underperforming compared to Eurozone for almost a decade now. You could say German industry has been gasping for air for a decade
@@Poctyk German has never moved from 4th spot in GDP for the last 20 years.
don't worry, the WEF and claus scwabb will save you from your own greediness, you will have nothing and you will be happy
@@Poctyk because they outsourced a lot to Easten Europe. The whole industrial economic growth in Poland, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Slovakia, Romania, etc. is mainly due to German companies opening new factories there. If Germany sneezes, also these countries get a cold, if not full fletched influenza. When those countries entered the EU, France and others made big promises, but were unable to fulfil them. Where are the French factories in the East, were are the British factories, where are the American factories? There are a very few, very few. Everything new is either from Germany, or sometimes from South Korea and Japan.
The problem is that if the German government would do a true 180 turn, all politicans who had responsibility in the last years (like Scholz and most of his government) would have to admit that they messed up on an epic scale. Which is not great for reelection. So we might have to wait for a new generation of politicans who dont share this burden. Because there is a deep change in the German mindset, it just hasnt fully arrived in politics.
Never seen a leader's legacy evaporate as fast as Merkel's.
She was always under fire but the media protected her. Turns out most of the "doom and gloom" is a reality now.
She hadn't had that important of a legacy at the first place. I would argue that most people who voted for her party did so only because of the fear that anything could change, whatever and for whatever reason.
But under her governance, there was quite a lot of change, while the changes went too far for the one side and not far enough for the other. So in the end, by always doing what the mayority of the people right now right today wants and what is written in the newspapers brought her in a position, where everyone around her wanted her gone.
Angela Merkel and her policies made a colossal damage to Germany and Europe. This could only be compared to the damage caused by Adolf Hitler.
@@jirislavicek9954 - the West can help Finland, Poland and Ukraine this time. Because Germany is on our side. Thatâs the most important thing. Regardless of Schroeder and Merkel.
I think you forget Putin.
Great video as always! Especially interesting as a German myself.
I can honestly only agree with your point of a missing German geopolitical strategy under Merkel.
Those 16 years were a time of prosperity and growth in Germany. No real problems (except maybe 2015: the migrant crisis) and massive profits for our industry.
But the complete dependency on Russian gas and trade with China was only driven by maximum profits not a political strategy.
This was always alarming and now we harvest the consequences. But strangly there are way worse problems facing my nation in my opinion:
- The rapidly aging population in Germany will lead to a exodus of highly trained work force in the next 10 years.
The "Baby-Boomer"-generation can't be replaced with our low birth rate.
We need way more children or more qualified migrants to bolster our workforce. Otherwise we will shrink like Japan.
- The energy politics under Merkel were a mess. We closed down most of our nuclear power plants since Fukushima happend.
To replace them we started to repower coal instead of investing in a green and self-sufficient german energy sector. Massive blunder!
- Our education system is underfunded and generally in a horrible state. Under Merkel there was always the financial policy of the "schwarze Null" (black zero).
This meant under no circumstances additional debt for the nation. Which lead to a degrading infrastructure and understaffed schools etc.
- There is a clear crack between West and East Germany (former BRD and DDR) in a political sense.
In East Germany the far right party AFD is on the brink of winning it's first local state election.
The polls show support between 20 - 28 % in East Germany right now, which would certainly win them a state election in Brandenburg, Sachsen, ThĂŒringen etc.
Even after more than 30 years of reunification in Germany many people still have a border wall in their heads.
- The Bundeswehr was neglected since the fall of the Soviet Union. To the point that it couldn't possibly defend Germany.
We need a rapid rearmament to secure our country and be taken seriously on the world stage.
- German bureaucracy is notorious slow and honestly just a shame for this country. They still use fax machines and paper files like we are in the fcking 90s.
So in conclusion Germany is a country with many problems but still a industrial powerhouse.
A country which needs more energy autocracy, better infrastructure and way more funding of it's educational system.
A country which is beginning to rearm itself and especially in East Germany (but not only there) has a political right leaning population, which are questioning the democratic system in general.
If this all sounds familiar to you... well it kinda is. Only one real crisis (for example a winter without heating) away of saying: "Ah shit, here we go again".
Sleep well tonight.
Quality migrants? lol good luck with that. Focus on education and maybe you can use the second generation. It is rare that someone with high level skills migrates and if they do it will be to which country pays the most. Medical/science = USA, engineering = Dubai
@@skylanh4319 Of course we need to focus on better education. But even if we automate more low level jobs like supermarket cashier or parcel driver etc. we still need more people.
Our new goverment is introducing a migration point system like Canada at the moment, which is atleast a first step. If people are willing to come to our country then is a another question đ
"instead of investing in a green and self-sufficient german energy sector"
The laws of physics were what prevented this. Germany spent 500,000,000,000 Euros on renewables (that's the actual number, not hyperbole). The problem is that renewables and fossil fuels are not in the same category (except for natural gas which is in both categories). Replacing nuclear with renewables is like replacing a car with an orange. Nuclear is baseload power (some designs can be both but we don't build those designs currently) as are coal and oil. Natural gas is both variable and baseload but better at variable. Renewables are an unreliable variable load power source which must be coupled with natural gas (or something else variable with a fast response time) to be viable. So the real effect of renewables is that it greenwashes natural gas. Germany did naively try to invest in a green and self-sufficient energy sector. What they ended up with was being very depend upon Russia natural gas. So your idea about a shift in German energy policy is really just doubling down on the previous failed policies. If you want to be energy independent you have 1 and only 1 option, nuclear fission. Energy policy is hard.
@@hunterpayne6167 I guess this part wasn't really clear in my comment sorry.
We should've never closed down those 16 nuclear power plants in Germany.
Like u said it's a great technology for baseload power in combination with renewable energy like wind or solar power.
But building more nuclear power plants is just too expensive and massive complications are almost given
-> like in France with its new nuclear power plants or even the old ones like last summer. Still better than using coal again tho!!!
A real renewable energy system has to be decentral and varied. Wind, Solar, Geothermal, Tidal power you name it...
But of course we need bridge-technologies like nuclear energy or electric vehicles until we can use the real game changer in this industry: Hydrogen!
Energy storage, industrial fuel, cars, aviation, shipping & heating. All of it is possible to power with hydrogen and it is always available, with no CO2 emissions.
Will this be cheap? No
Do we still need this in the future? Yes
Germany is just getting away of being dependent on a autocracy like Russia. Who are we getting in touch with now instead?
Qatar ... a monarchy like in the dark ages... GREAT STUFF!
@@HarryGoesRed angeblich soll in Zukunft Wasserstoff aus Namibia importiert werden
You forget that european innovation has been booming in the past couple years. Europe has just recently passed China in number of unicorn companies (1b+ valuation) created (296 vs 276). And one of the drivers of this was Germany.
And this is by no means the achievement of the governments but despite them. The credit goes to the people.
@@TheBart990 True. Super bureaucratic business environment and difficult to scale cross-border mainly due to legal but also cultural and language differences.
@@TheBart990 It depends on the projects. Sometimes itâs in spite of the governments but other times, itâs because of them. Careful when using absolutisms, they rarely hold up to scrutiny.
don't fool yourself, *C C P has too much influence over german government, to sell german products in chinese market, they have to be made in china> BOYCOTT MADE IN CHINA*
@@kenkrak4649 nothing to do with that BS bro. More to do with our government destroying the middle class, making selfdependancy harder and stealing money in the most taxes stolen in the OECD from people. All you do in germany is work overtime and pay taxes and sleep
The most important thing that should be on everyone mind currently should be to invest in different sources of income that doesn't depend on the government. Especially with the current economic crisis around the word. This is still a good time to invest in various stocks, Gold, silver and digital currencies.
I believe so much that the only way that we can live is if we grow, the only way we can grow is if we change, the only way we can change is if we learn. The only way we can learn is if we are exposed and embrace opportunities
â@@graceagb I have thought about what I will do when I retire, I see this as an opportunity to secure the financial future of my children
It's true, I started small capital investment with MRS AVA KIMBERLY at around $400 when the crisis started here in Ukraine đșđŠ and I'm very happy I met her.
As at 2019 I heard about Mrs Ava Kimberly,I was so skeptical starting an account with her,I took the courage and invested the sum of $12k and today I have about $57,000 in my portfolio she convinced my fear into courageous spirit today I enjoy the luxury of financial stability đŻ
I thought the distance would be a barrier, I pulled myself together and invested $9,000 from Ontario where I work, it was a great success, I never believed in the victory that would come out of it
Great analysis as always! And the sleek visual aesthetics make it even better.
Thank you very much :)
2:52 "2 initiated german world wars" Germany in ww1 was absolutely *NOT* the initiator, but I guess modern germanophobia is sadly still present
Germans are lucky to exist as a people among humankind after ww2. Lucky.
"Germanophobia" When they invaded France and violently violated Belgian neutrality. As the other commenter above me said: the Germans are lucky they weren't genocided to shit after what they pulled.
@@Mike-gi2oi Okay jew
@@road-eo6911 France declared war on germany and belgium was a parkour country to paris. But thank God the Allies never did anything bad, right? Theyre angels fighting the big bad germans
As I said above, blatant germanophobia, not surprising if coming from a jew
It's not modern Germanophobia, it's just that British Propaganda was so effective back then that this idea stuck. Hitler said once he admired British Proaganda and copied the strategies it for world war II. German Propaganda during WWI was largely ineffective in his opinion because they refrained from outright lieing.
I've been quite critical of the German geostrategic approach years ago. So nothing here is new to me. But I don't see many of the mentioned points as I used to.
17:45 If Europe really wanted to focus on its military it could easily do that. In reality, German industry could and does play a major role in this already. They are just focused more on exports, not least because they aren't a "frontline state" anymore.
Just think of the Russian, Iranian and Chinese military designs that use e.g. German technology. I'm not an expert on this, but as far as I've heard so far, this is no different for all kinds of Western military technologies as well.
What I'm trying to say is that for a strong military, one needs a strong industrial base. And this is very much present in Germany and throughout Europe.
Also, lets not forget that if Germany really wanted to focus on that, it would be criticized for that, but for other understandable reasons. So be careful what you wish for.
17:48 If you really think about Russian gas in Germany, you'll come to the conclusion that this simply was the cheapest available energy. It's not like other European countries didn't do similar things (e.g. Poland imports Russian coal, does it not? And where do all those reactor rods come from?). So long story short, we're all in one boat here in Europe. The Germans have to adjust now. But they can access the same international energy markets as practically everyone else in Europe.
17:51 This is the strongest point in my opinion. But of course there's still Europe, which is as you've mentioned an important trading partner in its own right for Germany. BTW the Germans are in the process of lowering support for German-Chinese working groups in industry drastically.
Honestly, I get the whole Berlin's-policies-suck approach. I've lived in Germany for almost a decade and can very much relate to it. Pointed out all those things back then and Germans weren't really able to listen. But these policies are all just driven by economic optimization and naivity on part of the older generations of Germans. And this is the point you are missing.
In reality, Germany has 4 centrist parties. (and two more extreme ones) Two left and two right. So why then 4 and not 2 in the center? Well, basically it's a generational divide. The SPD+CDU coalition of the Merkel era was in essence an old-peoples' conglomerate / monopoly. These two parties knew 20 years ago that they could play their grand-coalition game for a couple of elections, since old voters were loyal to them, but then would lose political support. Not least because their voters were dying out. All of that was statistically predictable. The two other centrist parties, the Greens and the FDP (liberal) in contrast remained in the opposition, up until the last election. And are generally a lot younger. Both in terms of their main political figures as well as the voters that elect them.
So what does all of this mean?
1. SPD and CDU are going to continue facing a demographic challenge. It's not clear if they can renew through a younger generation.
2. Most likely, Greens and FDP are going to attract more voters in the longer run.
3. Thus, we also see a shift toward long-term policies within Germany again. And that's really the main point in all this. Merkel era = short term, short sighted. Now and in futrue = younger generations, focused on the times we actually live in rather than the past and increasing shifting focus toward long term goals. (Although there is a ton of short term work that will need to be done as well.)
What I don't like about your video is that you clearly don't realize either that we have to work together in Europe to succeed. It's understandable but emotional and short sighted. Not in your own interest.
I have a theory concering Germany and so called German arrogance that I took with me from my years in Germany:
Basically, wherever there is a large country interacting with a bunch of smaller countries, people from either the small societies or the large one will always have a strong incentive toward understanding their own society plus the large society, but not so much all the smaller ones. This is purely out of economic reasons: People have limited time to spend on studying the societies that are important in their lives. So they are going to spend their time on that which gives the most result per time spent. Again, I'd like to stress that this is true both for the members of the small societies as well as for the members of the larger one.
The result will be a fairly widespread understanding of the large society, but a limited understanding of the smaller ones. E.g. a person from North-East Germany might understand the Benelux nations and Germany, but statistically perhaps not so much the various societies to the East. A Czech might understand CR and Germany, but then maybe not Switzerland, Denmark, the Scandinavian or the Benelux countries. And this results in a kind of arrogance (which results out of ignorance) on behalf of the members of the large society. This pattern can be observed in all kinds of places where relatively large societies interact with smaller ones. E.g. Germany, Russia, China, USA. But also France/Spain/UK and their former colonies.
It's an awful lot of hindsight to blame Markels policy but ppl forgot what it was like then.during period
Seriously if the option of cheap gas is.available what would the consequence of not taking that option
After the Americans went into Iraq countries particularly in Europe made it a virtue to disagree with/ play contrarian to the Americans
I remember UK EU membership was written off being the American proxy so why is everyone acting surprised things unfolded the way it did
I really liked your approach of seeing things (Y)
Yeah, the "German arrogance" thing is a general problem for large powerful countries, and especially for empires (it's an underappreciated factor in the collapse of empires, IMO). Everybody knows a lot about the empire, but it's much harder for the empire to have that level of knowledge about everybody it deals with. Plus, Germany borders nine other countries. That's a lot, and they're from a variety of cultural spheres, so knowledge of one often doesn't transfer well to the others.
@@HeadsFullOfEyeballs You've already mentioned it but it has to be stressed even more that this phenomenon isn't exclusive to the relations between neighbouring countries. But rather concerns any relation between a relatively large and powerful society and smaller ones with which it interacts.
E.g. Germany does have close economic ties to various Eastern European nations that don't border it directly.
Likewise, the US has close ties of different kinds to countries all over the world. Including those it has invaded in the past. A missing understanding can be costly in such cases for the larger society as well.
@@vinniechan The Problem was not to take the cheap gas, if other Energy sources would have been developed adequate or at least keep alive the Industrie of solar and Wind companies.
I'm curious as to Germany's future after this coming energy/economic/demographic crisis. What does such a turbulent history do to a people, in the long term?
The simple solution is more immigration
That is a good question. Maybe Germany died in 1945 and what we are currently witnessing is the end of a dead cat jump.
Their demographic problem is not spread evenly though, eastern Germany still has a much lower fertility rate than the rest of Germany, and I think is one of the main things bringing the fertility rate down overall, and fertility rates take like a generation to adjust. Ukraine before the Russian Invasion was just beginning to see the results of a more sustainable fertility rate- up to 1.3- an improvement over the 3 years before it- and it could have over time gone to its 1990 levels before it collapsed in the mid 1990s- where it was reaching 1.1 . The problem with fertility rates- is they donât show results in the workforce for another 18 years, and itâs a long term process thatâs the responsibility of the state, and often goes against the grain of short term capitalist thinking. But I think Europe still has the capacity to salvage the fertility rate of its poorer regions with some economic innovation, and state investment. I donât think China & Russia can because of their shrinking economies, economic mismanagement and authoritarian governments.
@@tellyboy17 Germany died in 1945? what are you trying to imply here??? đ€
@@sizor3ds I just wonder what millions dead, total destruction of its architectural heritage and millions of women raped does to the spirit of a country. Sure, Germany recovered but with its rejection of viable energy sources, subservience to authoritarian regimes and free for all immigration policies it seems to have given up on itself.
thanks for the channel. it is extremely well balanced source of reliable information. that is no small feat in an era of misinformation, conspiracy theories and general lies and nonsense.
Thanks you very much.
@@GoodTimesBadTimes czcams.com/video/HaKCNP8cz-I/video.html
It's extremely anti Russian
@@milutinke The truth is anti-Russian. Furthermore, it's not necessarily Russophobic rather highlights the deep flaws in the governing body of Russia and how it impacts Europe & the world as a whole.
@@milutinke no, I dont think so. Very little said about Russia in fact...
Great analysis! Great video as always!
That 1970s Mercedes stock footage is awesome. Great video production amazing to see how it keeps improving
IÂŽm native german and the quote at the end is translated incorrectly. The meaning of "Wandel durch Handeln" tranfers into "Change throu trade". Not like the moderator says "Trade brings change".
Und wo ist der Unterschied in der Bedeutung?
Great analysis. I remember when the German delegation to the UN literally laughed at the US for warning Germany that their dependence on Russian energy would cripple Germany in the long run.
The word "hubris" comes to mind.
No, what crippling us was listening to the orders of our Owner USA who then blew up our needed pipelines. Relations with russia were amazing and they wouldve kept that way if your Antigerman politicians didnt act against our interests because US needs cannonfodder against Russia
Sadly they will never be held accountable or even be interviewed. They probably still work for the government.
Russian gas imports are almost gone and will do so next year.
Germany is not crippled, we can afford the temporary high price and investments in technology that reduces future dependences are booming.
We are still laughing
Their point is wasnât that Germany would collapse, it was that all this pain could have been avoided had they just simply diversified their energy, the best German joke in years.
As a german myself, it's hard to see the arrogance of our elite.
You forgot a "c" in Wirtschaftswunder.
But otherwise great vid. Always interesting to see his own country trough another lense
And you put an extra "e" in "lens". Edit: As well as forgot an "h" in "through" đ
You mean the "c" that stands for capitalism
no SH*T kartoffel ...oh then lemme put it OTHERWISE...
TIME TO DOOH MFokker !
Thank you. Great episode
Excellent analysis. Thank you!
Very good vid!
However there are some focuses that make it seem worse than it is:
Quoting Kretschmar as the MP of Saxony you're not suprised it is so much Pro Russia, if you even just look at it's populace.
Similar with military Spending, in absolute terms, before the war Germany spent roughly the same as the UK and France, but had major problems with bureaucracy (look for Peruns video as well).
And Germany's industrial base are not just the huge companies, but thousands of small to medium companies. And currently German industry is faring better than anyone expected during the war, with 100% filled Gas storage and such. Something like "totgesagte leben lÀnger"
Also I'd wager that the policies wouldn't have been bad, if Germany was not dependent on them. Handel durch Wandel mainly works if Germany isnt dependent on a country. And at least the Greens and FDP are more hawkish when it comes to geopolitics.
Thanks, are my points too... The 30 big companies are maybe interesting for gouvernmental short term decisions. The thousands family owned business are the real backbone of our society - and they're planning for genereations, not for the fast money. Germanys economy will have a little dive in 2022/2023 but to overcame the problems with solutions - it's the right time to invest - and we all know, what that means: some years Germanys economoy will even get better.
German and Russian relationships could be sumed up as frenemies, throught out the centuries
You are right about Kretschmar and the spending.
What was also not mentioned in the video is that:
1 Many other EU countries have similar dependencies on Russian gas.
2. Germany keeps halve the EU afloat via EU transfers.
Well leaving out a few details here and there makes a better story!
>you're not suprised it is so much Pro Russia, if you even just look at it's populace.
India has 10 times more population. And? Maghreb + Egypt is twice the population of Russia. Nigeria has 50% more people. It doesn't matter if population is big if it's poor as hell. And with minimal salary being somewhere around $300 it IS poor as hell. The only reason why German companies sold so much machinery into Russia is because of Russian rearmament. (Thanks Deutschland) The MIC of Russia is a bottonmless pit in how many tools it needs.
@@Poctyk Are you on drugs?
Germany has often been able to "reinvent" itself.
I'd wager they'll be able to do it again.
Few forces as mighty as a german with a plan.
Love this. Thank you
It would be nice for once if they reinvent themselves as a stabilizing force instead of a destabilizing force for once.
@@gooflydo nah just watch the next vote in germany and youll be amazed at how far right this crisis has pushed this country
You heard the plan: no nuclear power, gas from Russia again ASAP, sell out to China. Meet the new plan, same as the old plan.
@@Zeus-xy8ft nah, that's Poland and Hungary...
great video, as always! thank u
What a fantastically researched video again! Thanks for your tireless efforts to make the most insightful videos on CZcams! â€đ
Germany be a little quirky tbh
@Apsoy Pike True true seems to be they Germany way lately though.
Nothing wrong with a little horseplay, every now and then
Germany is a capitalist wet dream!!
@@apsoypike1956 ohh ours is lol massively. I Just think Germany is worse.
@@ezragoldberg3132 Stay in America, Goldberg
There is absolutely nothing wrong to focus on economic development. If you have no moneyïŒyou cannot defend yourself. Modern warfare is expensive, Napoleon said the most important thing in war is money, money and money.
This is much overstated. Germany is not collapsing. GDP is rising; unemployment is falling. The industrial sector is only about 18% of the economy, vs. 63% for the service sector. Like many advanced nations, Germany has outsourced much of its manufacturing, but it also receives much foreign investment. There is no world shortage of natural gas; the interruption of Russian supplies will only be temporary. Germany is a world leader in green energy and alternative fuels. Strategically situated between East and West, Germany is by far the greatest economic power in Europe.
unemployment isn't all metrcis. If you consider real unstuffed positions which are from 50 to 70% you can see real picture.
"There is no world shortage of natural gas; the interruption of Russian supplies will only be temporary."
No, sorry but if the war had ended before winter that was a possibility. But now as Russia can't offload all its gas and oil, it has to shutdown wells. And if it does that during the Siberian winter, the wells are ruined forever (they freeze if there isn't gas or oil flowing through the pipes) and new wells must be dug. The US is the only country with the technology to do that and I can assure you that we won't be helping Russia anytime soon. Also, last time we did that, it took 30 years. So cheap Russian gas won't be coming back to Europe for decades at the earliest.
If you had on the other hand sent your Leopards to Ukraine, perhaps they could have won before winter (but probably not). Too late now though. Also, fracking (which is what this is) is terrible for the environment. It is better for you restart older nuclear reactors, keep the existing ones running and build new ones. Germany has only itself to blame for its current problems, they are largely created by Berlin and its terrible energy policies.
Nice pep talk. Now let's see how it holds up.
@@hunterpayne6167 all abolish nuclear campaign and go green was just funded from russia through corrupt german officials. Not so green france has lowe co2 emissions lol
@@montecristo7203 I think I am arguing with a couple of them in another comment of this video. Either corrupt or I found a couple of unbelievably stubborn people from Germany...what are the odds, lol
Great video :) love your content
Germany has hundreds of smaller to middle companies that are almost irreplacable world leaders in niche industries. If you think Germany is on the brink of collapse when it just had a slight positive economic growth during almost the worst case scenario for it's economy, you should probably rethink your analysis a little bit.
Even the Morgenthau plan, with the aim of dismembering Germany, gave away less territory to the Soviets compared to what they actually took
Well, good old Stalin was a very greedy man. On the other hand, the ruthless, insane occupation policy of the nazis (especially brutal in the east) based on mass slaughter certainly played into this.
@@abraham2172 Yeah, Hitler was such an idiot, he should have known that you can only do that with non-europeans.
Great content!
Excellent analysis.
Germany be like: We will switch to 100% renewables and be a good example to everyone else.
Everyone else: What are these fools doing?
I mean - everyone is doing that. Nuclear Energy investments are declining globally and thatâs simply because the tech is too expensive. Research is still being conducted but as long as a single reactor takes at least 5 years to construct, not to mention planning and complying with regulations etc. - nuclear energy simply doesnât work in a highly decentralized environment thatâs as bureaucratic and as much faced with crisis constantly.
@@Arcaryon Nobody is doing that (except California and they aren't doing much better lately). Renewables don't provide baseload power, nuclear does. The choice of baseload power is between fossil fuels and nuclear (and hydro but hydro is long since maxed). Renewables real effect is to greenwash natural gas as you have to pair the renewables with natural gas to make them viable. That's why German has to lie about their CO2 emissions and even with that have much higher emissions than France. Your opinion is widespread but it is also why AGW isn't getting solved anytime soon. It is also why the places that have invested the most in renewables don't have very clean grids and lots of dependency on natural gas. The places with the cleanest grids either have lots of hydro (and little population) or have lots of nuclear (France). That isn't an accident, it is inevitable.
Source: I am an engineer and have taken classes in nuclear engineering (but I work in another industry). Google for 'renewable energy without the hot air' if you want to learn more.
@@hunterpayne6167 so true, and main pollutors are militray, with pentagon making more then all other combined.
@@hunterpayne6167
So again: nuclear energy does not work for G.many due to the economic implications. Also; if you are an engineer, you will know that gas infrastructure being already present means that alternative energy sources like more nuclear plants need to compete with the initial cost of instalment, which is notable because this debate, again, developed over a two-decade period of a major economic crisis. Not to mention that a lot of the gas that matters is used as a component.
2007/2008 knocked our economy on its feet, the consequent Euro crisis from 2009 until the late 2010s kicked it in the back before it had even remotely recovered, 2014 ( refugee crisis ) and consequently 2015 ( Brexit ) ensured that the EU context would not allow to take on any new debt and the record revenue was basically evaporated just to manage the stagnation ( with inflation in mind, G.man loans have effectively declined in many areas of the economy ) resulting from the troubled period and with 2020 ( pandemic ) followed by 2022 ( w*r and energy crisis ), circumstances would ensure that what we have been trying to avoid, aka a rapid and painful shift in the energy crisis that could potentially strengthen populists and would regardless of this side effect result in a more aggressive foreign policy, which will destroy the old pacifism of the post-w*r order.
Let me rephrase that: R.gas was cheap. It was reliable. It was available. It was secure. It was _perfect_ for a transitional period.
Ptn had it all, a perfect deal - and he walked away and sold his country to Cna and now wastes his people's lives in an attempt to further unachievable goals. How anyone expected R. to be a serious threat prior to the pandemic in the higher circles of government with access to secret service observations of its armed forces is beyond me today.
On the baseload issue - renewables barely had any funding for decades while nuclear was a poster child for many of the most advanced governments. Not to mention that there are already entire large communities with thousands of inhabitants and industries running entirely on renewables in spite of the flaws of the technology.
@@Arcaryon Germany spent 500b Euros on renewables. And nuclear plants make electricity. Do you not have an electric grid or something?
Germany has the big problem, that the voters really don't like political changes. So the politics were very passive and only reacting instead of acting active for a long time. This is one of the reasons our internet infrastructure as an example is so damn bad. As long as we could build mechanical industry products, we were happy, but now we see that we are not competitive anymore with modern industries.
The voters who donât like change are dying out. Seriously - the old SPD & CDU alike are increasingly loosing their once near dominant influence.
The FDP is a staunch reformist for bureaucracy and technology, itâs pretty similar same with the Greens - and both are a lot more interested in more aggressive geopolitical plays.
The AfD is most likely still going to be in a state of internal crisis, the left is currently basically non existent in terms of internal cohesion, the CDU/CSU are again simply dying out and basically everyone in the younger generations blames them for the current mess, the SPD itself could make the junior party but itâs also declining - I think I could see the same coalition as today but with far more influence with the Greens who have taken a progressive center left position and a lot less power for the SPD.
@@Arcaryon yeah, I don't see the greens or the FDP reducing red tape for businesses to create a business friendly environment for more new companies. The greens because environment and also a desire to control economies (Kretschmer is not really popular outside of BAWĂ afaik, more seen as traitor to CDU) and the FDP protecting the interests of the current sucessful businesses. The younger ones like change, but not in business deregulation. We basically do not have an economically liberal party, I hope I am wrong, but I do not see the greens being so pragmatic to deregulate, it would go directly against their ideology, especially the Fundis ("global north" economically exploiting "global south" so economic development in D would increase that exploitation).
With the rest I agree.
â@@user-kf3rf Thing is: either they do it now or I ( and many, many others ) will do what everyone does when there are no other options: form a party and fix it ourselves. It's not that difficult to imagine honestly. Would waste a lot of time but hey, better late than never.
Also; the Greens are selective about regulations and to help big business, the FDP knows that it's necessary to deregulate the smaller suppliers who are a key part of the big ones and that ultimately means opening up the room for new models.
The youth also is well - young. They often do the same thing many young folks do, complain a lot about some issues close to their heart without understanding the full picture and well, while they have some strong opinions, give them a decade or two and they will do what everyone does, start to look into settling down etc. and as a result, develop new interests because a lot about their broader position is still rooted in them being flexible & the naivety of thinking that they will always be content that way.
You know how they say that everyone is pretty liberal in their youth and growths more conservative later on? While there are always exceptions, this saying is rooted in a simple fact: young people and older people tend to be different due to the things they experience. Now, let's replace "liberalism" with "thinking that X ( climate&enviroment/justice politics are ) the most important thing on the planet" and conservatism with "knowing that, while X ( climate&enviroment/justice is a serious issue ), many other problems are also extremely important, perhaps even more so"
The youth has a tendency for radicalism because they are not looking to actually "build", they are mostly just looking to create _conditions for a moment when they feel ready to build_ and are therefore only basing politics on what they know and often, they know basically nothing about the actual larger background because, while most people are not all that political, they at least gather experiences with time.
This w*r right here has probably damaged the pacifist movement the most but the environmentalists are second.
To emphasize my point let us look at the biggest issues in G-many according to public opinion based on research provided by Statista.
In early 2021, climate change/environmentalism was the biggest singular issue in G. ( 34% ).
Still significant but here is the real argument:
"In the summer of 2022, around 58 percent of the population said that inflation was the most important problem for G-many . Meanwhile, about 38 percent of G-mans saw the energy supply as one of the most important problems. Only six percent said health was the most urgent problem, while in winter 2021/2022 it was still 22 percent of G-mans who saw this as the most urgent problem due to the corona pandemic"
See this?
That is 96% who are basically marking something from the broad category of "economic concerns" as their single biggest concern. Even if the research is off by 20% ( and as a big statistics guy, research in this regard is pretty damn good nowadays so that is _very_ unlikely ) - 76% (!!!!!!!!).
Environmentalism and climate change have not gone away of course but their whole perception has changed drastically in the eyes of the public.
People could name at most two issues which is why the actual data might be confusing ( quoted from "What are in your opinion the most important issues facing G-many is currently facing?" ( "Welches sind Ihrer Meinung nach die wichtigsten Probleme, denen D******land derzeit gegenĂŒbersteht?" ) at first glance but basically, the current crisis nuked the entire previous political landscape. This is huge. Quite possibly bigger than anything since the end of the cold w*r in terms of the immediate effect on domestic opinion.
Great analysis.
Really great video. Brings everything together. Thank you.
Nicely said, thanks
It's not "search for profit", that's a child's understanding. German industry needs financial health to keep high salaries for it's workers and pay high taxes in Germany for social welfare. If that is threatened, social peace goes away, and nobody in Germany wants that. You have observed correctly that they put their future in other people's carts, but it is out of legitimate concerns, not "profit". It's jarring to hear that in such a complex, multi factory analysis.
14:37 They'd still be poorer than Germany. Russia won't attack Poland, but the USA can't step in and defend Ukraine. Eastern Europe would have to do it on its own, maybe Poland and other Eastern European countries can handle their own considering how badly Russia is doing
I do not understand why this analysis targets Germany. The same problems affect Poland, Hungary and other countries which are focused on exports and trade.
Excellent video, especially the end.
Thatâs said. There is much we can learn from Germany, such as how to run a decent education system and their apprentice program to help kids get realistic skills for industry.
Very true , thatâs something that we should emulate because in most western countries itâs some how better to go to college and study a liberal arts degree than to work as for example a technician and attend a trade school
Dear God, don't copy our school system!!! You can copy the core idea, but you have to fund it, we Germans didn't, now we have big problems!
@@eineperson9849 Like what?
childs play
@@magnem1043 ? I only ment that the US system is stuck in the 19th century and does not provide a good educational track with real world experiece for non college ;evel studends.
Fantastic, thank you
Excellent work đ
You give Merkel too much Credit
He doesnât seem to know the NS2 is a Schroeder project
Great analysis of German foreign policy failures. It is bracing that Germany has not recognized the value of freely elected democracies over autocratic dictatorships
Has US or UK done so? - No.
For ex- Good economic, geopoliticL and defense treaties with middle east countries or China l.
Russia is just a scapegoat used by UK/US in thsi regard.. .earlier it was communism vs capitalism.. today is is democracy vs autocracy. .. tomorrow it will be something else...
Real reasons are 2-fold -
1. Russia has been a real challenger to US- militarily, economically (gas etc), technologically (space race actually dominated by USSR, great cyber engineers - which is present and future of progress), culturally (hub of orthodox Christians as well as "caucasus" roots for caucasians) etc etc.
Not to mention they are closer to Europe, and very intelligent, tough people who actually won the WW2 (8 out of 10 nazi soldiers fell before Russians, and Russians finally stormed berlin... where allied powers made big drama about Normandy landing and doomsday)
So US risked real irrelevance when faced with Russia. Hence wars.
Proof - US invaded Iraq and Libya when they decided to make US dollar less relevant by using gold or euro payments, and not USD
2. Defense industry of Us is one the 3 big 3 sectors , which fund govts and elections, and they need back constant war..and further revenues
They sell the idea that this is essential.. the rest is all geopolitical drama and details - of how this happens.
Excellent analysis
Great analysis
Germany has tried to be the economic superpower leading the European Union with France, but when war comes to Europe we see just how weak and indecisive they are. We had a little tough talk, then a pledge of 100 billion more on defense, but there's not walk in the direction yet. Germany has already been good at spending money on defense without much goals and getting a half functional army. France for example spends less, has proven and battle-tested expeditionary capabilities including a nuclear powered aircraft carrier and it's own independent nuclear deterrence. The kind of talk about resuming to the fascist Russian gas right after war is a sign of Germany working against common European interests, and without resolving the internal struggle for direction German position globally and in Europe will continue to erode. Near Russia we cannot trust Germany or France, both have proven to only do the barest of minimums to help Ukraine so they can say they've done something, their contribution to ending the war is put to absolute shame by the likes of Poland, Estonia and Unites States, and it's only going to bite especially Germans in the rear if the war keeps on going. The cuddling up with Chinese dictatorship is another sign Germany has not changed it's ways after 20 years of bad foreign policy and reliance on dictatorships for it's economy, and it's NATO allies for security. How long will France, UK and especially USA look at Germany getting cozy with adversarial powers while their tax payer's money provides German security?
Well said, I find it somewhat shameful that living 12-13000km away from Ukraine we can manage to send them functional, useful aid and armored vehicles in the time it took Germany to find a few 1000 helmets and some old Soviet stuff from the former East Germany. We're not as wealthy as France of Germany in terms of being able to pound down a lot of hard cash but I'd like to think Australia is doing what it can from a very long way across the globe.
Its not so much the amount, but if you can get something there to overcome the tyranny of time and distance it can make all the difference in a situation like this. Apart from the immediate neighbors, eastern Europe and the Baltic countries- the biggest donors are the US and UK. Which doesn't make a lick of sense seeing as one left the EU and the other is a very long way away as well.
Europe needs to have a nice big think about just what it expects from its member states, NATO members and come up with a way of standing together. For Germany, its now their time to fight on the right side of history and its not something I find easy to say for a variety of reasons
@@krissteel4074 as a german i fully agree. Things need to change and fast. Our Dependance on superpowers is an insult to our past. I don't agree with the hitler Regime in any way and im neutral to the Kaiserreich but at least we could be considered a super power ourselfs and now the only thing we have is our econemy and hyper Dependance on other superpowers for Protection, Energy and Trade which is not in any way shape or form a good thing.
@@Souru_TV My family left Prussia in the 1890's so its old history but I do have some empathy for the country and its people.
But, as much as there's some lingering guilt over the past it needs to be put behind them and progress made towards a better future. Because as much as its not said, the world needs Germany, in particular the Western World which brings with it the advantages of egalitarian, high living standards and freedoms we enjoy- sometimes that quite frankly means snapping your foot off in someones arsehole or helping out your like-minded allies.
What also needs to be paid attention to is how Russia fights, same as it ever was and it is literally why the Baltic and Eastern Euro's responded the way they did. They know just how bad it will be and know how much needs to be done quickly because they know just how bad it can get.
@@krissteel4074 I agree thing is though that we germans arn't allowed to move on.We constantly get reminded of it, of our dark past most of us want to move on from for example i was called a n@zi once just for being german.
The whole purpose of NATO is to keep the Americans in the Russians out and the Germans down
70 yrs later it still rings true and a weak German response is just how the system is intended
The more important question is when countries pull their head out of their arse and work what they really want and frame a policy that's suits their goal
As a german, I am looking on its policies from the inside. Therfor i think the perception of central politicians such as Merkel having a strategy or a greater plan for the nation, is simply incorrect. They do not have a clue on what they do.
So it is correct that they are driven by the big companies and their lobbyist.
@@kommtzeitkommtradt5969 Possibly, yes. The companies in comparisson to the politicians know their business
well said, mate!
very well done thank you.
I as a german am interesed in politics since 2018 and the one thing I was rapidly aware off is the bad management of germany as a nation. In that case i refused to vote for the parties that are saying "we do everything better" but in the end they do the same but if a problem comes up, they change their direction more often than i do my underpants.
I also dont like these right wing parties that only think about "we are nationalists" or what ever they talk trash.
i am more like a man that wants left and right policies, but the only thing i see is corruption in the government so far.
Europe does nothing but try to suck germany dry. I would not fight for eastern europe. Those mf still call us nazis!
One big topic you totally missed is enviromental politics. First if you review Merkels politics you gotta say that her politics were not only shorttermed concering dependence on autocratic states like Russia and China. She also missed a historic chance to reubuild the german economy and infrastucture in the time of low interest. Of course energy is one big topic but shools, streets and anything that needed subsidies were sacrificed to the "Schwarze Null" (Balanced Budget). Seconed if you talk about engery dependence - Germany wanted to get into renewables anyway now "just" the midterme plan gas isn't working anymore and everything has to go a lot faster (not a bad thing imo). The new german goverment are making oc arguable but in the end steps in the right directions I belive. In the Enegry question obviously but also your example of the depence of china and the Cosco deal isn't well interpreted. Yes oc germany is way to depend on china - but the hole west is. Germany maybe more than others but Hamburg not more than Rotterdam f.e. (the dutch were like all other allied countrys with big own ports and big chinese investments in them totaly against german dependence on china). Giving Cosco only 24,9% max. is again a step in the right direction on a way germany needs to go but can and must not go alone without the western partners.
completely agree
Germany is trying to end its energy dependence of russia by diversifying its portfolio of autocrats
Thia channel is great. Greetings from germany.
The thing with operating under a system of simple commercial mutual interests is that those interests will change, often subsumed under or just secretly utilized for the benefit of power. If you donât operate under the same umbrella of understanding of the responsibility and use of power, then what you perceive to mutual interest will eventually bite you in the ass when those mutual interests are to be used against you in the quest for an asymmetric power dynamic by the other party.
The historians today say that Germany did not iniciate the World War One. Kaiser Wilhelm II didnÂŽt want the war, every country made mistakes. France wanted revange for 1871 and Alsace-Lorraine back, they waited for the chance to fight together with Russia. The attempt on Franz Ferdinand from Austria-Hungary and his wife in Sarajevo was a sign of Serbian nationalism, forced by Russia. Russias mobilisation came first, Germany couldnÂŽt risk to wait without mobilisation. Of course, Germany also made mistakes, provoking the British Navy, the "Panthersprung", the blank cheque for Austria-Hungary, ...but not only Germany.
Just a quick comment that does not impact your larger point. At 2:49, you say that Germany started two world wars. I think that Germany is responsible for WWII in Europe. Japan for WWII in the Pacific. To try to place the blame for WWI on a single state or cause is problematic.
a minor nitpick
@@issysito320 Well, sort of. The first part of the video is describing Germany as a pariah state. That is definitely true. If we are going to have a good discussion about historical context around current events, then I think it worth our time to be accurate.
Given that Germany wanted to conquer the world in its entirety, how is it not to be blamed for the outbreak of WWII in its entirety, at each theater of WWII?
It's Germany coupled with Russia that set in motion a chain of events which wrecked so much havoc on humanity.
@@paulwarren4947 Well Japan invaded China before Germany took over Czechoslovakia. I think trying to blame what Japan did on Germany is a real stretch.
@@paulwarren4947 That is such a cliche Hollywood idea of WW2, are you being serious? Germany never intended to conquer the world. What a ridiculous idea. The plan was always to conquer lands in the east as those territories were seen as rightfully German and to secure living space for the growing population and to unite all German speaking people in one nation state, nothing more nothing less. It was actually the world that declared war on Germany. Hitler hoped until the last moment that Britain and France would not go to war about Germanys demands on getting back Danzig and West-Prussia from Poland. If Britain and France never declared war on Germany, WW2 would have likely ended up as a local war between Germany and the Soviet Union and a separate conflict between Japan and Britain, France, US in the pacific.
I think while the points you made are all true, its all a little exeggarated.
Hi! In 2:38 you mention about the postwar German society wealth being equivalent to that of 1880. Where can I find this information? I looked at your sources and the internet, but wasn't succesfull. I would really appreciate it!
ourworldindata.org/grapher/maddison-data-gdp-per-capita-in-2011us-single-benchmark?tab=chart&country=~DEU
@@GoodTimesBadTimes Thank you very much!
Nice visualization of the iron curtainâs effects on German manufacturing.
Europe is Europe... as long as we stand together, we have little to fear. The problems arise when we fight each other (world wars, and all that led to the formation of he EU).
Yes, brother. Germany doesn't want to fight anyone, but we are very much hated by the world. Do not repeat history
Lmao of course it's Germany to blame for Russia being lowered to nothing more then a glorified nuclear gas station. Now that was good policy
Thought provoking analysis as always đ
Regardless of German perfidy, its number one role is not to be a barrier between West and East, like it was before 1945. Now the West can directly assist Finland, Poland, Romania and Ukraine. Germany is fly-over territory.
A full 980? Wow that's very full!
That's over 2 and a half spins ! đ
Germany will be fine.
They have a highly educated & skilled workforce with a strong work ethic.
Energy policy aside, they are generally fiscally disciplined and financially responsible.
As long as theyâre in NATO, their access to global trade is inviolable.
If, tomorrow, all of their cities were bombed into rubble (again), they would just rebuild and within 20 years they would again have the highest GDP in the EU.
Zactly.
I mean Germany could survive on Lidl, Aldi and Volkswagen alone...
I disagree with the last sentence. Trade does bring change, it is an undeniable truth in the history of mankind, however trade with oligarchs doesn't change anything for the better.
Germany made the unfortunate decision to pursue an economic strategy based on the outcome of a security policy which was not controlled by Germany or even the EU but largely by NATO and in the end the United States. A nation whose economic and geostrategic interests are, well, not perfectly aligned with those of Germany. It should not come as a surprise then that the war between Russia and Ukraine has been a tremendous setback for Germany while US would seem to have benefitted from it in no small way. Apparently if you want a policy to work in favor of your nation it's generally helpful to be in control of said policy. As other actors will tend to use any influence over said policy to primarily benefit themselves.
tbh Germany does control its own foreign policy and Angela Merkel showed that with the pipelines just like Schröder did with refusing to join the Irak war. The sanctions are broadly supported by the German people and the government was mainly forced by calls for action from the minor partners in the government coalition. And although it is nearly normalized after a year of constant obvious lying but Russia also cannot be trusted as a business partner anymore. The entire theatre about the Nordstream 1 pipeline turbine was bull shit from start to finish. Russia could have embargoed us but instead they blamed it on the bureaucracy and shut it down with stating a valid reason (although clearly having one as being on opposing sides in a conflict is)
How has the US at all benefited from the invasion in Ukraine?
Word.
Well said
I fail to understand how the US spending $54 billion dollars in Ukraine benefits the US in any way whatsoever. We have record inflation and the economy is heading into a major downturn and Russia playing hob with Europe's economy is highly unlikely to do us any good, especially with our current regime here seemingly determined to burn our economy to the ground and destroy as much as possible our energy sectors. Madness.
It's amazing how insistentely Germany ignores all her geographic advantages. Located in the heart of Europe, being the connection between the black sea and northern sea, between France and Poland, between Sweden and the rest of Europe, the entrance of the Danube region, borders 9 nations, has a very good river and canal network and large companies. Not to mention the millions of bilingual citizens(not to mention the proliferation of English) and great education system...
It has everything that it needs. But thanks to the conservative capitalist capture of government trajectory is completely ignored. E.g. the Hamburg Port... Wtf give that away?
Germany needs to heavily invest in Eastern Europe, the connection to Denmark, the Danube region, etc.
Germany needs to stop dancing at more than 4 weddings and focus on its geopolitical destiny: the heart of Europe. It is the entrance of the Great Northern Plain (which continues into Benelux and France, but the Rhine river is war really matters) and at the doorstep of the Danube(with Austria being the actual entrance). the Rhine-Danube canal already exists, so does the Godhart(?) Tunnel and the North Sea Baltic Sea canal and the Fehmarn Tunnel is in construction. It needs to continue into Poland and Baltic by a powerful freight and high speed passenger rail. The three seas initiative will greatly benefit Germany, even though Germany won't be as dominant. It's better to be a partner to equals than to be dominant of lesser.
All the countries you mentioned have expensive energy and now metals for manufacturing, they also have declining populations and thus shrinking markets in the future. Eastern Europe will not have the chance to develop the same way as the West with so many headwinds.
@@andrewj4426 all of Europe has a stagnating or declining population (except Ireland) and expensive development costs. Does not diminish the need for increased European connectivity.
It is clear. But one small but essential mistake. Germany is not the entrance through the Rhine. The Netherlands is. Thst is why Rotterdam is there, not in Germany. Venlo is also there, the biggest inland port of the EU.
â@@trillionbones89 Dutch population had its largest increase in decades
The sad thing is that these large industrial companies are stuck in time with products that are no longer important like cars- especially combustion engine ones.
Maybe bike or bus is more important to you for transportation...
The New Commonwealth of the Baltics, Poland and Ukraine has a missing piece. Belarus.
Germany is such an interesting country.
Danke kamerad
@@alolen6261 No, I said what I meant.
Yeah like a foot finger thru a hollow sock !
It makes look the as a sapient creature all on its own
Thank you friend, we get so much hate. Many people want to destroy us. However, like Dresden, we may be blackened with the ashes of bombs, yet we still stand.
@@anon8206 My Dad is Bavarian actually.
In China, business and trade is subordinate to policy. Germany will get a wake up call eventually.
It could be that history and geopolitics became regarded as something Germay had moved beyond. Viewing these things as no longer relevant is a convenient approach to dealing with some very deep and difficult issues.
Thank you for your excellent overview and the issues that the US, UK, and the EU are faced with Germany's current position towards Russia.
A very interesting topic and a well made video. I might add that in the case of a Taiwan+ USA / China conflict, Germany will have to choose between it's 20% GDP in China and it's security provided by the US. I specifically point to the nuclear sharing agreement and the recent project of an aeropace defense plan with US and ISR weapons manufacturers. It's very probable the US will ask Germany to impose sanctions on China.
Very difficult choice.
At this point it looks like the US bombed the Nordstream pipeline, I would love to know how that was negotiated with Germany.
Seems like it would be a tough sell to also get Germany to sanction China in the future
We had the same with ASML in the Netherlands. In the end the choice was not that difficult. We chose US. Meanwhile, dutch army forces are integrating within german army at the same time as Netherlands is rearming itself (slowly). Our draft system was not abolished but is sleeping, waking it is a decision parliament can take within a theoretical day
I guess without cheap energy and trade profits with china, the german industrial base and thus gdp would be much smaller, leading to Germany having even less of a say on the global stage than they do now..
Yea, but they wouldn't be depending on totalitarian regimes and states that sponsor terrorism & genocide.
@@TheBart990 lets be real. pretty much every nation except perhaps the US is in some form reliant on imports from the states you mentioned.
There's a spelling error, it's written "Wirtschaftswunder".
Canât wait to see how badly the economic prognosis for Germany shapes up in 2023
The reason for the implementation of the marshall plan was not mainly because "a powerful West Germany was more usefull for the US" as you put it, but more importantly because of the lessons learnt from the aftermath of WW1 and thus the reasons why Hitler rose to power in the first place.
one should not anger the germans or they will try to conquer the world again.
Yes the video was unfortunately again very much focused on the USâŠ.
A well off population doesn't fight against capitalism.
It was simple. Post-war Germany would I be either prosperous part of the West or it would get better offer from the Soviet Union. Americans wisely chose to keep Germany on their side.
The lesson learned from the aftermath of WW1 is that to avoid the next war with Germany you need to capture Berlin :D
In defense of Germany: Good trade is a very strong basis for peace and prosperity. It has proven itself time and time again in that way. So, trading with more controversial countries could have been an way to pacify them more. And if you look back: it has worked for decennia. Also keep in min that trading with these differences in culture and forms of government at this scale has never been done before. I guess we encounter the limits for what is possible right now. We can learn from it.
The German development Model may collapse. But said controversial countries (Russia, China) will collapse as a state. Germany will not.
Maybe Russia but China will never collapse. They have an intense lock on society completely controlling the narrative within politics.
@@TheBart990 Loosing a major war is akin to a powerful blow to the very face for a government - whatever plans you may have had, whatever designs were dominant, if the war is big enough, it can shake the very foundations of the powers that be.
And something to keep in mind: a lot of the time, itâs not the initial loss itself that causes a change but what follows afterwards. Case in point: many revolutions begin with a disillusioned group of men plotting in a tavern over a few drinks.
The opposition in Russia had for example, no good way of gaining any widespread public support. Currently, hundreds of thousands of fighting age males left the country. The organisations that this exodus will produce could become very influential in a few years or decades. They would not be the first to do so.
Good trade is a sign of Peace, but as we see now with russia, it can be turned into a weapon as economic warfare. Hayeks theory has failed and we better search for a new concept for the eternal Peace by Kant.
Old countries are less likely to break up or have a revolution or civil war. In fact no country with a median age over 40 has ever had a civil war
How do you animate images? Looks really realistic how it pans and particles in the image move as if it were slow motion video.
Germany's geography is a lot more difficult than most countries that are as populous and historic as they are. They have next to no natural resources, and have been overshadowed by neighbors. Before they were "Europe's Battlefield", a title that has since shifted to the former Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth (Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Belarus, and Ukraine). Though they do have two key natural resources: Coal and Iron. Their course of action was inevitable.
Itâs been centuries since they were overshadowed by their neighbors.
hopefully it all falls down, our people definitely deserve it.
This is so true! Always since the early 90's the german governments have only focused on interests of the economy and never had the wealth of the people in mind. This led to an bunch of dependencies which narrowed the range of good governance practice more and more. The growth rates of the economy were stable, but the poverty in germany grew at the same time - and even quicker. All the growth served only the greed of a few.
Even poor Germans (and Europeans in general) now live longer than wealthy Americans. Turns out some things are more important than impressing "economists."
And Europe has no children to pay for you living longer.
@@madderanger7838 The United States' population would also be shrinking without immigration. It's the only thing that gives the West a big demographic edge going into the future. Meanwhile China's population has probably been shrinking since 2003 and the CCP has done everything in its power to make foreigners leave the country.
At minute 14 you cite Saxony's Prime Minister Michael Kretschmer, saying Russian gas should be used again after the war, and stating that this "policy of Berlin" is being met with disapproval in Poland, Ukraine and the Baltic states.
Let me just say that Michael Kretschmer is known for controversial statesments and its not policy of Berlin.
Also, the german public would never approve resuming gas imports from russia, as long as russia is a dictatorship.
That ship has sailed and can be viewed as equally certain as the overall abolishment of nuclear power after Fokushima.
Also, germany would be less threatened economically by the emergence of eastern european block, rather than being threatened by eastern european countries following polands or hungarys example of authoritan rule and blocking decisions on an european level. The mere thought of an eastern european alliance INSIDE the EU is anti european and the fragmentation only serves russia and china, certainly not in the interest of any EU country.
I share the notion that germany is becoming too dependent on china. On the other hand, german goverment publicly committed to diversification of supply chains, so it doesnt become too dependent from any single actor. China is too large though, and strategies not becoming too dependent have to be international.
I'm curious about why the map at 3:26 uses the Nazbol version of the USSR flag
Germany: Trying to be peaceful, rational and pragmatic in a world dominated by belligerent, irrational and unpredictable players.
Me: đ
Putin literally sold his countries future to China - and for what? He could still be powerful if he had aligned it with the west snd even more importantly, his own people would love him for the economic growth, he could have eventually resigned as the man who turned Russia around and lived as a wealthy and well respected man - instead, at every so many possible turns in recent years, he has actively worsened Russias position.
Germany know that it needed time and played for time - it wasnât a gamble because rationally, nuclear power is too expensive, the EU and Germany were constantly under pressure economically, official domestic German infrastructure investments were lacking already and could not afford expensive reforms without causing serious unrest / taking on debt in the middle of severe crisis via 2007/8 financial crisis which basically continued into the Euro crisis of 2012, then the Middle East falls apart, ruining a chance of secure, cheap gas imports from places like Qatar ( in a crisis, nobody is a humanitarian in major politics ) because letâs not forget that more nuclear energy doesnât fix the issue of gas as a component, not to mention how expensive and slow it is⊠The last two decades were a fairly miserable time economically.
I don't see it as rational to not factor in risk; to be reliant on others. To play with belligerent authoritarians. Are they irrational, or just not playing the same game as you want to play?
@@richdobbs6595 Read my comment. It will explain a lot of your questions.
@@richdobbs6595 Everyone plays with "belligerent authoritarians" what a stupid measure of rationality is this where you have to be at war with 2/3 of the world to be "rational"?
Something that worked perfectly for 20 years, couldn't be used to influence German politics and is replaced within one to three years can hardly be called a failure.
Germany became independent of Russian gas back in August. Unfortunately Germany continues to rely heavily on China. Then again, which country doesn't?
"modest military and financial assistance", dude Germany is the second highest forign aid to ukraine. How did you mess up this well documented fact?
Thatâs because the US makes up the vast majority of assistance. Itâs not even close.
Germany is #3 below the US and the UK. I guess you could consider that "modest" considering they barely give more aid to Ukraine than Poland does. Which comparatively is embarrasing tbh.