Five Moat Myths
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- čas přidán 27. 08. 2024
- Rob holds a talk called "Five Moat Myths" at the 2024 Value Investor Conference in Omaha.
Rob discusses five widely held beliefs about moats that may be incorrect.
He also summarises his two prior talks at the conference - on valuation in 2014, and on management in 2017.
This talk was originally planned for 2020, but the small matter of a pandemic got in the way...
Great lecture. Two important lessons I got from the talk: 1) You can’t recognize mgmt with integrity (and talent) unless you practice them yourself, and 2) People or management is a big part of creating and growing the MOAT. I thought they were very insightful observations. Much appreciated 👍
A great talk by Rob. Here are the 5 Myths:
1) A widening moat is better than a wide moat
2) Some moats improve with time, others decay
3) Moats are an output of a great business, not an input
4) Management can create/destroy moats
5) Moats are most valuable in static economies, and least valuable in dynamic economies
Myth 1 deserves more attention. The analogy of boat #2 traveling faster than the distant boat #1 that’s further ahead presupposes that the moat enjoyed by the first boat does not act as a counteracting force against the prosperity of boat #2. This can be true if boat #1 has no moat in reality or if boat #1 occupies a tiny portion of the river at large, leaving ample room for boat #2. Since our working assumption is that boat #1 is competitively advantaged, focus is thus put on the latter case:
A sub-scaled competitor can grow faster than a competitively advantaged incumbent if the scale required to enjoy said moat is de minimis. It’s as if the only thing that matters with respect to discussions about moats is whether the incumbent is of significant relative size to prevent competitors/new entrants from becoming sizable threats. No matter how great the moat, it’s of no importance to customers who have yet to be captivated.
Ex: what’s the minimum scale required of a software company to enjoy switching costs? I’d argue, one customer. It’s likely why Rob calls cost advantages as the goat moat as it widens in proportion to scale - albeit at diminishing returns over time.
That said, I also think that cost advantages are often touted without explicit recognition of their limits. Cost advantages are only meaningful to the extent that said cost savings are deeming consequential to end customers. Do I really care to save $2 on napkins at Costco vs the local convenient store? With rising wealth, this threshold of convenience likely rises (ie from $2 to $3). Good talk!
Great talk! Where can i find the presentation?
Edit: I applied on your website- please accept my registration!!
Timestamps would help your nice videos ❤
Mostly pleasantries until 7:45
Skip to 18:27 for the myths
I noticed that the questioners in the audience all spoke with foreign accents which I believe bodes well for the future of value investing around the world.
excellent as alwyas Rob
Great value!
Really enjoyed this one. Thanks RV!