Rodney Jones: Why NZ is so vulnerable to China’s economic slowdown | Q+A 2023
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- čas přidán 25. 08. 2023
- China analyst and principal at Wigram Capital Rodney Jones tells Q+A that China’s economic situation is about to have a profound effect on New Zealand’s economic outlook, particularly in the rural world
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I am surprised that BRICS never got a mention?
CORRECT, BRICS rise is Freaking out Washington, and by sticking to the party line we better not educate the people about it. we don't want to have sanctions imposed on us ,do we ?
Absolutely
Excellent interview
If only the Labour government didn't hate successful people
A scorpion remains and we will be stung, no surprise there.
You have to be joking it was Bill English who wrecked 50years of ❤progress in opening up NZ to the world. Bill English one years as PM in 2017 did unspeakable damage The greatest progress towards freedom in NZ was to get the bars and supermarkets open 24/7.English ended all that even before Arden wrecked and closed the Tourist industry Violence problems in the streets at night and on trains in NZ have always been created by the overpaid unproductive workers in the artificial Sutch import licensing jobs infge Hutt and StH Auckland and Catholic South Dunedin if you ever encountered the products of King Edward Tech in South Dunedin you will know why people are appalled at the shameful rehabilitation of Keith Murdoch and 1971-72 All Blacks and recognize social readjustment requires lowering working class and farm worker pay to levels they can not finance cars, family or a wide in line with Reagan and Thatcher's post 1970 policy Enforcement of the old min105iq for entry to the military and police is also essential.
If only the National Party didn't hate intelligent and qualified people
He’s right. Covid will be a walk in the park compared to a war theater in the stretch of water where all our trade shipping goes through. NZ dairy needs urgent diversification to try and mitigate this
To do that we need to get our emissions down as well because now Europe has stricter environmental standards in place than China. Its going to be rough breaking the news to farmers. The sooner we do it, the better.
In the world we are entering New Zealand will have no issues selling food. With fertilizer shortages and energy shortages every country capable of producing excess protien will have it snapped up, with or without carbon BS. The truth is europe will beg to buy our products, their main bill payer is Germany who just lost their cheap Russian energy supply. NZ has a bright future if our politicians let it.
@@kevinansley7353The fact is that Asia (in particular China) has been our largest consumer. Europe already has countries within the EU that produces animal proteins (refer to the EAPA). With China's economy slowing down, sales will also reduce. There isn't much our politicians can realistically do to solve China's economy. However, what we can do is build upon trade partnerships we have with the EU, this will mean changing some of our practices. The EU wants to be a climate neutral climate by 2050, this means the products we sell the the EU market will need to meet higher sustainability standards (refer to myNZTE).
Agree, " real" food is the next currency, not the fake lab produced
@@kevinansley7353 That is if Europe can still afford our products, Germany the Largest and most important European country ,having had the benefit of cheap Russian Energy, now having to buy more expensive from America, causing the deindustrialization of Germany.
Great Interview, The internal dairy industry in China has been expanding over the last few decades, their cost of production is very high, Historically we have been very dependant on China for dairy exports! I suspect they are approaching self sufficiency in Dairy! Thanks for sharing
Rodney Jones makes good sense with his expectations, thank you Rodney.
Wow that was a very interesting interview. Thanks. A nice change of topic from the Elections.
Great insight, thanks.
Very thoughtful interview that shows why Government always need to engage consultants of this calibre, to help guide policies.
The farming community need to diversify more to survive.
growing forests for carbon harvesring
Rodney has the level of intelligence and understanding that is sadly lacking in our current government.
Yet the current government is always criticized by the opposition for using consultants. People such as Rodney Jones are an invaluable asset to formulating policy. Labour wisely used consultants for a more objective viewpoint. Good on them.
i really enjoyed that.. thanks
Who would've thought that excessive dependence on a country dominated by a capricious, authoritarian regime might lead to problems down the road.
Based 🙌🏼
This problem has been anticipated for years, from those not willfully trying to ignore it. NZ industry/government have been keen to cultivate China as a customer and investor, and China has been keen to gain leverage on what they correctly saw as the weakest link in Five Eyes and the Pacific Anglosphere generally. As recently as 2020 both Labour and National had MPs with Chinese government connections, Raymond Huo and Jian Yang, respectively, and Yang was a "former" Chinese Intelligence officer. FFS.
Y is NZ teaching other countries about dairy and wine making ?These are our industries.Doesn’t make sense for our long term future
The situation is moving so quickly that even this worthwhile analysis seems somewhat out of date. What about BRICS?
What about BRICS?
You hit the nail on the head, spot on.
Brics is over rated. Take note that India is there also. India will not allow to have China govern BRICs. They also have border dispute china. Also take note that China economy is not good right now. How do you think they will achieve making a new currency.
We need to get labour out. They are not capable of anything. Let alone this issue.
Glad I left New Zealand, it's going down the toilet economically with growing debt on the radar of the ratings agencies and a terrible trade deficit, plus the Chinese are upgrading all their own international farms and soon won't need NZ dairy products. Then you have to deal with co governance, basically theft of tax payer assets, diversity and a sharp rise in violence all while suffering low wages, high inflation and affordability issues with housing.
In Australia China was our cash cow as well, until we had a rude awakening with sanctions on multiple important areas of trade. The Chinese embassy gave us a lengthy written list of demands that needed to be fulfilled for trade to be restored. This was a direct attack on our sovereignty. Diversify as quickly as you can. Bring in strong foreign interference laws. The level of delusion and naivety in some remarks in the comments section that the Americans and all its allies, such as Australia who are all democratic rule of law countries are the bad guys and the Chinese CCP dictatorship who are bribing and corrupting their way through Africa and the South Pacific are the good guys is breathtaking.
Good to see realistic appraisal of the risks of a declining Chinese economy and security risks in the Indo Pacific. There are a lot of western corporates decoupling from China, moving manufacturing, offices and employees to other Asian countries. Even tourist numbers to China are down. That says something about a changed risk assessment.
It's like NZ has been burying its head in the sand and as this guest highlights, pretending China under Xi is the same China of 2 decades ago. Xi Jinping has said, categorically, he'll take Taiwan by force if necessary and before his reign ends. He's not a young man. We should take him at his word. He's also eyeing off islands claimed by Japan (for oil) and neighbouring Asian nations are fighting to keep control of fishing territory. So, the threat goes beyond Taiwan! Xi will take what China needs.
Those militarised islands in the South China Sea are no holiday resort and weren't built for fun! They're refuelling stations...for bombers and other military craft! If Xi has control of maritime passage through the South China Sea islands, NZ will be at the CCPs mercy for what we need to import and what we export. End result, we will have to be 'obedient' to the CCPs demands. Look at how Xi punished Australia for simply asking for an investigation over the virus, if you want to know what's in store. Arbitrary trade sanctions to bully us into compliance. Australia was smart. Certainly didn't kowtow and found alternative markets for products suddenly banned.
NZ should be actively finding other markets and since our farmers will do it tough, slamming them with ridiculous 'climate' cult taxes is just plain dumb! Little old NZ thinks they're saving the world by cutting their own economic throat. Meanwhile, China is building coal fired power stations about 1 per week! The faddish Climate fixation of our politicians is stupendously irresponsible 🙄
Time to lose the naivety and get real before the proverbial hits the fan!
Well said.Kiwis regards this issue in a very naive light.
Our biggest problem is we are not fiercely defending our exports, while at the same time, we are not expanding our exports either. Infact our traditional exports are shrinking as we need more room to expand. Add to that we are building up, instead of out, where costs dramatically increase as the foundations of our cities and towns can't cope.
Then we go an give people jobs based on their sex, race and what after work sex club they belong too.
As a country if we refuse to foster insider talent and propel them into positions of decision making, we will collapse.
And the current generation in power are selfish, arrogant, very stupid and most importantly have been brought up in a bombardment of consumer propaganda where they have been pitted against one another for who has the latest and greatest stuff.
Its is not a culture of stepping aside and passing the ball to the next generation, its one of curling up on the ground and protecting the ball at all cost because you want to hold the ball. You can kick them all you want, they wont let the ball go.
When they finally let the ball go, it will be up in the air, but in their dying breath they will attempt to pass it onto a person who will pass it back to them. It all results in a ball that is not getting propelled forward, but one thats up in the air, loafing around so they can stay relevant in the game and hopefully get their greedy hands on it once more.
When the ball pops, and everyone leaves the field, they will stand there victorious, just no one will be left but them. No more games to be played, no more people to compete with. But at least they get to keep the ball...
We need to invest in the Navy and restore some firepower to the Air Force, and stay the hell away from AUKUS etc. Obviously we need to diversify the economy too, in products and markets.
More interviews like this please!
Buy a monopoly board it is all the same paper money.
Nz media dont wont to talk about this on the election trail
collapse of China's economy may lead to debt issues in NZ
We in the West but mainly America have applied massive sanctions on China and it’s America who are trying to intimidating China by sailing/flying through the Taiwan Straits additionally dropping sonar buoys. America is circling China with military bases in North Korea, Japan, Philippines and Australia with new military airfields being built on numerous southern Japanese islands. We speak to China in ways that we wouldn’t even consider speaking to America. This is all about the West trying to contain China from confronting American hegemony. We have loved the trade with China that’s kept many West countries afloat but that trade has obviously lifted China to become a major world power. It’s becoming clear that China will not remain subservient to America as it wants a multipolar world and Taiwan will become the Ukraine war between America and China. The reality of this war would be trade, economics and the welfare of millions would be irrelevant.
We need to stop fooling ourselves. We have a population of 5 million and we take the lazy route to selling our products at low added value to one main super power. We should have spread our risk, emphasised our quality and looked to adding as much value as possible. When this turns to crap, we have ouselves to blame. MBIE and those marketing offshore grow some balls and take control of the market, appreciate our position and quality.
NZ is far worse situation than AUS. Why? AUS main export market = China (27%). NZ 2nd (after China at 25%) main export partner = AUS (20%). So if China weakens then AUS gets hits but NZ will get double hit to the turn of almost 50%. AUS is far better diversified, NZ is only about 20th on its export list. AUS has Japan, EU, USA, India, etc that are all bigger than NZ markets.
NZ should not buy or sell anything with China. China should also do the same. So both will be safe and not vulnerable.
Just because china is just a big economy and over population that font nean thst wrsten English speaking countrys have to host so many of them hope new Zealand government have a good immigration policies in place new Zealand needs more houses and infrastructure
Here is the issue that Kiwis have Not Considered - Corporations like Governments work on The Law of the Sea or Admiralty Law - [Common Law was the law of the Land] but everything you see, your car, your land, the bank account with your name on it, is all Admiralty Law or The Law of the Sea and that brings me to my point, The United of 180 plus Nations has called the Submarine Continent the Size of Europe in the South Pacific identified by having 2 Pimples called the North and South Island as being New Zealand and Kiwis Simply Don't have a Constitution to cover that area therefore any imagined or perceived or alleged New Zealand Constitution is Out of Date and therefore Dead.
It's like having the Registration papers for a car that rusted 180 years ago - is that visual enough?
Lamb beef dary
Yeah, all the $1,000,000 alcoholic tin huts bought recently, won't be worth a dam soon.
Ah well, that's what beer and happy tablets are for....
Go New Zealand, you rock... at burying your head in the alcoholic, happy tablet sand.
This doesnt need to be complicated. Diversify instead of focusing trade on a repressive, anti-democratic behemoth. That way we can stay morally and economically sovereign whatever winds are blowing.
BAN PLUTONIUM 40 YEARS AGO!
Mahuta’s speech “The natural relationship between the tanewha and the dragon” goes a long way toward explaining our dependant relationship with China. Her role as Foreign Affairs Minister was well handled to pull us into sphere of influence. Will she lead Labour post election as promised? We will see.
The European green deal will also affect China's economy, which in turn will affect our economy even further. We have to lower our emissions if we want to sell our goods to Europe (refer to myNZTE). We have to adapt if we want our economy to survive.
😊😊 in 😊n know I look njjjjjjniiiijijiinijiniininioiii
Question - because I demand an answer/a Human thought -
What is the difference between 5 female goats working out who has to watch out for who, when their Family Unit is Grazing that day, or Global Politics - What is the difference between Global Politics and the Equine family? We have the Stallions Mares and nations that have been over taken and are just puppets - How do you feel about the way I observe your world?
Dictatorship, haha shows that don't understand our culture . Our family value is built on this principle ie. We abide to our parents' rules.
Question to Common Kiwis: How do you feel about Losing your children in an unnecessary American Generated War?
Is America generating or authoritarian countries wanting to create wars.
@@maccleba6721 Like how the americans just stole Maui bu burning all the children?
Most wars in the past 50 years were American Generated wars.
So far as I know its Chinas attitude to minor stuff like theft of technology and genocide and the we own you all chinese retoric.
Reckon NZealand should apply to join BRICS:)
Joining BRICS would mean that we would have to receive unanimous backing from all existing BRICS members-Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa-to receive an invitation. That isn't going to happen with our association with NATO.
The US guarantees international trade, if New Zealand joins BRICS who is going to protect their trade from Australia interceping it?
I'm calling on Kiwis to Think to Stop and Take a Different Look at that you're seeing here in this TV production - [Why did the producer colour the background Red - What Mind Games are right in front of your eyes] This is how Propaganda is made - This is what the West- The 5 eyes accuses China of - Propaganda - how many times have you heard a presenter in western news talking about Russia, North Korea or China and say "If you can believe anything from there" The TV presenter had his list of propaganda prompts and 35 Kiwis liked it ...?
Let the same presenter run those past me and I'll disassemble the question - Answer it Clearly and then tell him where it came from - like Who's Desks in the USA.
K1VV1
NZ should be a rich nation but lack of oil exploration and over immigration has impoverished it's citizens.
That's their plans
i think that Rodny has completely got it wrong about CHINA. it's interesting how the question of BRICS had not been brought up by Taine in the Interview, and very little coverage has been given to the recent BRICS developments in South Africa. I agree with Jones ,the world is moving on at a fast pace, with the realignment of countries large and small. How could anyone with a sane mind, expect China not to reassess its trading relationship with Oceania countries, including NZ, when its quite obvious ,especially to the Chinese that Most Oceania countries are taking a very Pro American stance in both Economic and military issues .I would disagree again with Jones when he talkes about a serious economic downturn in China. China and Russia despite what we are told in the west ,together with the expanding BRICS countries have great new opportunities in African and South America ., the days are gone when China and Russia has to rely on Europe and Oceania. Like it or not , China and Russia perceives ,Europe, and most Oceania countries to have betrayed them by going along with sanctions directed by Washington, and in the History of the world never worked. China and Russia will remember who their friends really are, and adjust their trade accordingly ,leaving the old traditional allies of Uncle Sam, including Europe go down with the sinking ship The perception that China is going to march through the South Pacific and militarily take over Oceania is just as much of a myth as it was when we were told that if America and its allies did not have a victory in Vietnam , the commies would march on Sydney. or if Russia was allowed to win in UKRAINE ,PUTIN would go all the way across EUROPE. Both the Vietnam ,and Ukraine conflicts were an absolute disaster for America ,and hopefully like Vietnam the Ukrainian conflict will in the long run turn out to be a good thing.
NZ-China Trade Question: are you saying that Cows we sold to China can provide Milk product for the Entire GRICS block and all of Africa ? or are you saying that Chine is choosing where to Purchase from related to How Many Times New Zealand has Stuck China in the back for the americans? Which is it?
Are you saying that the Belt and Road Export of China Can't afford our Beef and Milk - take a real careful look at the SIZE of all the African Nations that China could sell Kiwi Food in and you're saying it's because finances ?
I'm saying the Economy of the West and the 5 eyes is Screwed.
Here's how to turn this around, 1. Officially Join Belt and Road, Officially Order Huawei 5G installed, Apply for BRIGS and If the yanks still want NZ in the 5 eyes we'll still want Out!
Grant Robertson told me by OIA that there is Zero income value in New Zealand being in the 5 eyes but we have to Pay to be included in the 5 eyes.
Let Japan take the 5th eye and Make New and more trusting friends in Our Pacific.
Are you saying BRICS is the better option for NZ?
Welcome to a multi polar world, by picking the wrong horse we might be left behind.
@@chrismckellar9350 YES - 1000% better option for New Zealand but we are an Un Friendly Nation to 2 of the top BRICS nations - so we would need to work on that first.
Go back through and Officially Withdraw Kiwi Support in the UN that the US promoted and flip the Kiwi vote - This could be the first sign of Sanity out of New Zealand for those both those BRICS nations.
BRICS is going to over take and I'd be Very Shocked if New Zealand can trade with a BRICS nation once the Bank is installed at the end of Next Year.
BRICS nations are short on Food and I live on and directly Off My Land and I'm a Kiwi so if my Market suddenly took up another 16 nations with a food problem then yes I'd say BRICS is a good option for Kiwis.
@@michaelmullins3396 - If the blue and yellow coalition of chaos is the government, NZ will definitely be left behind, as they have haven't got any plans to future proof NZ against the economic speed wobbles of China, a possible war in Asia, other increasing global geopolitical, trade, economic, manufacturing, supply chains and health uncertainties and the disruptive and unpredictable effects of a warming planet other than reduce government spending and economic growth waffle.
@@ironclay3939 - BRICS is not politically and economically good for NZ due to the nature of the organisation and the 2 major countries that are involved in BRICS. If NZ did join, there will be very little democratic and free speech, as NZ would be subservient to the organisation whims of the 2 major country members making NZ a isolated poor back water country. Is that what you want?