Why We're Excited About Tesla's Future w/Farzad Mesbahi (Ep. 763)
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- čas přidán 18. 06. 2024
- Will CyberCab be made of stainless steel? What do you think?
I talk with @farzyness (Farzad Mesbahi) about:
• Tesla shareholder meeting
• Elon 2018 compensation plan re-approval
• Texas redomestication of Tesla
• FSD
• 8/8
• Optimus humanoid robot
Farzad Mesbahi on CZcams: / @farzyness
Farzad Mesbahi on X (Twitter): x.com/farzyness
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Dave Lee on Parenting, / @daveleeonlife7659
NOTE: Please don’t fall for scammers who might impersonate me or others in the comment section. I do NOT give out my number or ask people to contact me.
💁🏻♂️ Disclaimer: All content on this channel is for discussion and illustrative purposes only and should not be construed as professional financial advice or recommendation to buy or sell any securities. Should you need such advice, consult a licensed financial or tax advisor. All views expressed are personal opinion as of date of recording and are subject to change without responsibility to update views. No guarantee is given regarding the accuracy of information on this channel. Neither host or guests can be held responsible for any direct or incidental loss incurred by applying any of the information offered. Author is long TSLA and other stocks at time of original video publish date.
Check out my archived articles/posts on Tesla and investing: teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threa...
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*Larry Burkett's book on "Giving and Tithing" drew me closer to God and helped my spirituality. 2020 was a year I literally lived it. I cashed in my life savings and gave it all away. My total giving amounted to 40,000 dollars. Everyone thought I was delusional. Today, 1 receive 85,000 dollars every two months. I have a property in Calabasas, CA, and travel a lot. God has promoted me more than once and opened doors for me to live beyond my dreams. God kept to his promises to and for me*
There's wonder working power in following Kingdom principles on giving and tithing. Hallelujah!
But then, how do you get all that in that period of time? What is it you do please, mind sharing?
It is the digital market. That's been the secret to this wealth transfer. A lot of folks in the US and abroad are getting so much from it, God has been good to my household Thank you Jesus
Big thanks to Ms. Chisty Fiore❤️✨💯May God bless Christy Fiore services,she have changed thousands of lives globally
How can I start this digital market, any guidelines and how can I reach out to her?
Thanks for having me! Always an awesome time talking with you!
We love you Farzyyyy!!! Glad to have you on Dave Lee's channel
@@steveo1574😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊
OG
Hope your wife is recovering Dave thank you for all you both do
Need another James Douma interview soon please! 🙏
An absolute must.
Same. James is easily one of the most insightful contributors to this community.
Dave is one of the people I trust and value for his opinions and views. I’m glad to see him sharing more about Tesla now.
i can't believe both things passed overwhelmingly....it's so uplifting...now we forge ahead without anxiety.
At least from the Elon faith perspective. The judge is under no requirement to lift the riscension on his pay.
@@fractalelf7760 The judge's main reason for overturning it was a lack of clarity/disclosures in the original 2018 vote. Tesla went above and beyond to remedy these concerns in the 2024 re-vote. No chance the judge strikes it down again.
@@stueygewy stranger things have happened but at least elon isn't going anywhere because tesla and the shareholders didn't screw him.
I strongly agree. While the Delaware judge may still disapprove, the chances of being overruled by either the Delaware Supreme Court or federal courts is great because all of the objections were addressed and voted on.
It doesn’t matter what the so called activist far left Biden puppet judge says anymore!
Texas can draft a new package to be approved for the years past!
THE DREAM TEAM!! I need more of these two talking Tesla with each other!
Great content lately Dave! We missed you! Sending lots of love to you and your family ❤
It’s so good to have you back. So much talk about FSD and Optimus. I first invested in 2016 and bought an X in 2017. I invested because of the mission, then Elon and now these new things are a bonus.
Dave, praying for a full recovery for your wife! Hope all is well my man! Thanks for the incredible content!!🙏🙏🙏🙏
Thanks Farzad for mentioning Alexandra Merz in relation to the outcome of the vote. She played an important role. I appreciate her big time in the Tesla community.
Dave, I didn’t realize you were at the shareholder meeting - would have definitely said hello and thanks for your content! Nice hearing your thoughts again on CZcams.
Wow Dave! I’ve never seen such passion from you buddy…Love it!
This is definitely a dynamic duo
Great to see my two favourite Tesla guys together.
Amazing conversation fellas! Glad to have you back Dave! Thoughts and prayers to your family.
Thank you Dave and Farzad, those YES votes brought a much needed win for a good causes (in trouble times like now), and unity among shareholders, so thank you and congratulations!
Would love to see a debate regarding how much can simulations get you to FSD. Waabi’s CEO thinks it’s enuf; Musk doesn’t. Musk’s view is a core moat of TSLA’s value.
Bring Abby Joseph Cohen on the show. She changed my life Financially I managed to grow a nest egg of around 120k to over a Million. I'm especially grateful to Abby Joseph Cohen Services, for her expertise and exposure to different areas of the market.
Same here, I got to know about Abby Joseph Cohen on here in 2020. Since then I've paid off 160,000 USD of debt. Now I'm working on building an emergency fund. I didn't even have a savings account three years ago.
Interesting. How can i reach her, if you don't mind me asking?
Abby Joseph Cohen Services is a portfolio manager and investment advisor. She gained recognition as a former employee at Goldman Sachs; a renowned investor she is. Abby Joseph Cohen has demonstrated expertise in investment strategies and has been involved in managing portfolios and providing guidance to clients.
Well her name is 'ABBY JOSEPH COHEN SERVICES'. Just research the name. You'd find necessary details to work with a correspondence to set up an appointment.
Abby Joseph Cohen Services has really set the standard for others to follow, we love her here in Canada 🇨🇦 as she has been really helpful and changed lots of life's.
I tend to agree with Munro on this. SS is expensive and heavy. Cyber is a look, not necessarily materials. Aluminum panels can be stamped with tooling that makes it look like the CT, and the tooling would be cheaper. I'm guessing the priority is cost and not aesthetics.
We love Dave!!
I'm with Dave. I think the Cybercab will be stainless steel. Not only the name, but the reveal date of 8/8 is a reference to the 88 MPH stainless steel DeLorean used as a time machine in Back to the Future.
Agree CyberCab will be stainless steel. Makes much more sense for long term durability, especially for city use and marketing.
I believe the move to Delaware was a huge play, pressuring a reversal of the decision, showing that Delaware will lose massively when companies see this decision as how negatively this precedent could affect them. Does any Judge want this to be their Legacy?
Thanks guys. Dave great to see you again. Farzad your child will teach you so much. Enjoy. My Son has a child born on Jan 19, 2023. He try’s to talk but we talk baby language heeheee. I must be doing ok cause he has this huge smile.
Regarding how far ahead they are, I agree with Dave but it could be more than 5 years, because remember Elon said if someone like Ford licensed FSD from Tesla, it would still take them 3 years + to get it integrated into their cars.
Baidu said they are partnering with Tesla to rollout robo-taxi. I think this eases the data security concerns from the Chinese government and paves the way for wide adoption. Given the slow regulatory process in the U.S., I think China will have Tesla robotxi before the U.S.
I think 8/8 should be a collection of dreams. You have an invitation to the event, and you are picked up by a by the shuttle from the new parking garage. The host of each self driving shuttle will be the
Optimus robot. The Optimus robot isn’t driving, but it’s having light conversation with you. The car will drive itself through the tunnel. When you arrive in the building you’re greeted by another robot who welcomes you and ushers you and your group from the shuttle to your seats. Fun to dream another great video thanks.
It will be cool for Robotaxis to know your ideal temperature and it is that temp when you get in. Lots of cool potential features.
Great interview!!
Good to hear from Dave!
I wonder if the reason FSD works so well in SF is better map data. In Michigan V12 gets into lanes that are ending a lot and other seemingly simple issues with high level map data. I would think Tesla could use the fleet to maintain a real-time map and maybe they are in SF. Most of my disengagements are planning issue that are simple problems if it knew more about lanes. Even incorrect speed limits aren't getting fixed. The car sees the sign and corrects it but it has to do this every drive.
How can Tesla deal with Taxi unions? I am thinking about somewhere like Germany, where many cities dont even allow Uber because the unions are so strong.
It will definitely be a problem. However, in the long run, cities that keep the cost of living high will be less competitive with cities that keep costs low.
Great work DL and between the 2 of you...every base is covered during this TESLA game of life. Cheers
Thanks guys. I love both of your thoughts on where we are going as investors . Funny also watching Farzad being interviewed.
Do you guys think that in addition to cameras, FSD could benefit from a sound sensor? I know that isn't part of the tech now, but certain driving situations do involve sounds. Thanks.
Yeahhhhh!!!!! Tesla Dave is back. The calming voice discussing Tesla news.
Can't wait to listen to this! Dave is back! Thanks Dave and Farzad
Since you've interviewed Farzad you can take the liberty of retitling video: mind-blowing interview 😂
Cybercab Has got to be tough and durable as well as benign and approachable. That is a tough compromise to pull off. Stainless is good for no paint and dent resistance but it also should not pose as a visual threat to pedestrians and blend in somewhat so not to appear too dystopian.
They will face a lot of resistance because by some who will see it as a threat as well as appreciation by those who don't want to use public transportation.
Really glad to see you back Dave!
On 12.4.1 - Assuming a fleet of 6 million and 10k miles driven per year, then 1 intervention per year is 16,438 interventions each day across the fleet.
If 1% of those are safety critical, that’s still a large daily number for regulators to approve robotaxi. (Although, probably a much smaller number compared to human drivers).
Makes me think that we may have to get to 100k miles + per intervention before robotaxi can scale
So thankful you're back Dave.
i continue to pray for you and your family.
Thank you for all you're time.
Great interview, stimulates lots of speculation. I think the wild card in both the FSD and Bot progress is the alacrity with which the neural net is learning. My Spidey sense is tingling, I think things are moving at a much faster rate than is generally thought.
If I can’t add my 2019 model 3 to the fleet, biggest class action lawsuit ever.
Dave is back! 👍
Would love to see an investigation into Cruise’s Origin and where it went wrong. It was such a cool idea for a robotaxi, but just not the most scalable approach.
Dave is missed you and your well thought out content so much. Very happy to see you back. Hope the family are doing ok ❤.
Hey Dave would love to hear your thoughts on xAI
Some of the big funds changed their vote the last minute, could very well be that they were afraid investors will pull their money out from their fund if they vote No. This incidence made so many investors of funds realized they need to pay more attention including voting.
I love that Dave is posting again.
Missed his take on all things in the Muskonomy.
You didn't speak about the private Teslas we wiil be able to put in the network to make money ... ?
Elon explicitly said current owners will be able to add their vehicles to robotaxi fleet when they want. He mentioned the Air BnB model. I don’t think he would have said this if it wasn’t part of the bigger plan. It would take time to build fleet of driverless robotaxis so having any Tesla owner able to add their car to the fleet would allow a more rapid growth of fleet and a “buffer” as the driverless fleet grows.
Riders can have a profile such as temperature, seat heating/cooling, lumbar support setting, angle of seat back, leg room etc. Once profile is set then every ride is pre-configured and rider does not have to use the app for their requirement each time.
These guys love all the promises from Elon. It gives them content to talk about. That’s it. Is Elon buy shares, are these “influencers” buying shares?
Bigger than the model 3 was the Chinese government cutting the red tape for Giga Shanghai late in 2019 when 30% of TSLA was sold short. Even then the stock price didn't take off until Tesla actually turned a profit.
A no vote would have meant we as stock holders do not honor our pledges and contracts. I would have sold my shares and disassociated myself from Tesla. I keep my word.
Cybercab: great convo. Elon might try to bring some efficiency of scale by merging cybercab and Cybertruck parts and maybe assembly lines!
When I was using FSD in Phoenix, Az it worked very well
The lead is short because others will steal the knowledge. Just like Matthews the supplier on DBE. So sad.
Wonderful conversation. Thank you
Coolest Tesla interview of the year! Thanks Farzad and Dave Lee- the world is becoming a better place.
How did the M3 LR suddenly qualify for the $7500 Credit? Did they change the batteries? Please someone answer this question!
Yup
There are no Tesla long range cars that utilize LFP batteries, so those cars have batteries manufactured in the US. Hence the tax credit is available.
@@robertdyer1235 So why no $7500 Tax credit until this week for the M3 LR? My order that I placed for the M3 LR in April I was told no tax credit was available, Then a week before delivery of June 25 I received the tax credit. Also what batteries are in the M3 LR? Thanks for answering my question!
Good convo. I'm on the road 4 days weekly. So far, very little evidence of 'Intelligent Life'
SS is more expensive but you’ll want the body to last as long as the motor and the battery.
That brings the per mile cost down which is pertinent for a rental.
The limiting factors for FSD and Optimus are different. For FSD it's NN capabilities and for Optimus it's hardware scalability. There are plenty of meaningful use cased for Optimus with current NN capabilities, so Optimus is a matter of hardware scalability. With that in mind we will see significant (measurable and projectable) impact to Tesla's P&L from AI within 3 years, latest 2027, but likely already in 2026.
appreciate your efforts, but really. Telling me the check is in the mail just doesn't work anymore after hearing it for two years
rookie numbers...lol
Two years is nothing
THEY SAID IT WAS "CYBERESQUE" NOT A CYBER-CAB. SO THERE WILL BE DESIGN CUES THAT INCLUDE LARGE FLAT FACES OR THE STEEP ANGLE OF THE FRONT WINDSHIELD ETC.. BUT IT WON'T LOOK LIKE A MINI CYBER TRUCK, I THINK IT WILL BE IT'S OWN THING IN OF ITSELF AS IT LITERALLY IS SOMETHING WE HAVE NEVER SEEN ON EARTH BEFORE.
The only “time” Uber and Lyft can compete with the Robo taxi is during rush-hour when there are not enough Robo taxis available for everyone.
The vote down could also mean the direction is right but the compensation is too high since value has not been generated as expected, it’s amazing how two smart people can totally get blindsided by their investments
Thanks Dave and Farzad!! I voted and I'm so glad it went the way it did. Elon can breathe and be invigorated and the move is so super important as well. I love when Dave said '... this market is a vacuum, and Tesla is going to come in and suck it all up!' LOL. True!! Cybercabs, robotaxis, optimus robots... Hello, future.
I don’t see Tesla doing remote controlled. I see them rolling it out in states that have Tesla insurance to Tesla owners. Tesla owners can operate Tesla’s network and profit like Uber. Tesla can also lease out their cars to individuals (currently Uber drivers).
Elon said in shareholder meeting they could remote control cars that get stuck.
True, but he didn’t say when and that would ruin their big surprise. Image the gasp when he announces on 8/8 and we’re rolling it out today with supervised driving and plans to operate remotely by x day. In my mind, remote operations should be for that 1/10,000+ miles. This would get the cars on the road quick and more data about ride hail. Plus drivers could help get customers used to the Tesla experience.
Serious questions;
Do you think the simultaneous development efforts of FSD and Optimus are a negative or a positive for reaching real-world physical autonomous AI? I think it is a significant positive benefit that no other company but Tesla can claim as assets.
How close do you think we are to sharing our world with physical autonomous real-world AI? I think the moment is sneaking up on us and most people are totally oblivious to how close we are to this future. FSD (Supervised) 12.3.6 is amazing. If training is the answer for solving both FSD and Optimus autonomous real-world AI then we are watching it all unfold right before our eyes.
My opinion is that with even a worst case of increased necessary training involving some backtracking we are within months of safe functioning FSD and Optimus real-world autonomous AI.
I know you are both US based, but the roll out to the rest of the world is going to take a long time. In the UK we still run with the old autopilot stack (even though I got FSD with the car in 2019), so it does things like suddenly jerk the wheel to the left when passing a motorway junction while saying "keep right". A long way from FSD / robotaxis here ;)
Two of my favorite Tesla fanboys ❤
Rob! Please take time with Rob next!!!!
One component of the robotaxi/cybercab that must be factored in is Optimus. He/she must travel alone to run errands, or may be required to accompany you on trips (as a companion and/or security.) So, will he/she automatically subsume/control the vehicle when it gets in (like R2D2?) It will have HW5 presumably and will it have neuralink to future proof the system? Lots to think through-but, regulators will limit release initially to one or to a few small city(ies). Accident liability is not a small or simple issue to address with a hand wave. Don’t get me wrong, I want this to succeed and believe Tesla will do it, but we need a video that breaks down all the issues in a deep dive with some open minded experts. Thanks for all you do.
CES in Jan will have the first robotaxi rides in the Tunnels in Vegas.
We need to start talking about all these companies who have comple monopolies on the three legs of the AI triad: compute, algorithms, and data. I see TSLA, Apple, Google as leaders. I also see Palantir taking a stronghold on the algorithm side similar to how Nvidia has a hold on the hardware. compute side. Then let’s talk about who owns the picks and shovels-compute providers,
Institutionals should, at bare minimum, poll their constituents/members/clients before voting in accordance with poll results.
*It's an attack vector to allow human drivers to remotely control vehicles. A "terrorist" could destroy lives by piloting one disastrously*
Waymo solved for the attack vector. Read their blog post on it "Fleet response: Lending a helpful hand to Waymo’s autonomously driven vehicles"
They allow humans to only 'suggest' inputs to the vehicles, but in the end the vehicle makes the decision of whether or not to follow the instruction.
Also, I think it's possible they will build the Cybercab on the existing Cybertruck line(s).
The shareholder vote must have been huge because they put out a video so they advertise the shareholder compensation package but they don't put commercials out for their vehicles it's weird.
You don't need 1 to 1 remote driver always monitoring. You wait for the car to have an intervention, then there is a queue of remote drivers who take over when that happens and there is enough spare capacity of them to not wait.
I think it would be possible to design a driving test(s) that both a really good human driver and FSD could be scored
Fun chat guys
I feel like FSD is memorizing what to do in any given situation, rather than being able to reason about it. Like a robot-chef would put the pizza in a broken oven, wait 10 minutes and then serve you a cold pizza.. Or lets say it's been snowing in California and FSD is driving next to a cliff. FSD would probably drive as if it got winter tires on, and not pay much attention to the cliff. It would just drive as if there is no cliff and it has winter tires on, which would be statistically correct according to its training, but super sketchy in this situation. I think the tail of edge cases would just be forever unless the AI understands the world much like we understand it.
Can somebody correct me if I misunderstood but I thought with Farzad's interview with Tasha Keeney Tasha said that they and them over there at Ark don't feel like optimus is going to add any improvement other than 1% to the cogs of Tesla?
What’s the take rate on FSD after the $99 offer? Why doesn’t Tesla disclose it?
Why they should not add the current fleet? They could use inventory or lease cars that came back. The software is developed on that fleet so its obvious.
A simulation - better than they can make it now - might be a way to create training data. Could that be the way for a new competitor to Tesla? Image simulations 100 timers better than what we have now.
My biggest concern with FSD isn't the software, it's the camera setup. I don't see how it could work in all scenarios without having cameras on the front and back bumpers pointed to the sides (like a hammer head shark). For example, let's say you're parked between two uhaul trucks and you need to get out of the parking space. Uhaul trucks are so big that there's no way you can see cross traffic as you pull out. A human driver would just pull out slowly and hope for the best, but that's still risking someone hitting you as you pull out. But if there were cameras on the bumpers the car could pull out a couple inches and be able to clearly see any traffic. The current Tesla camera setup is positioned at the middle of the vehicle where the driver sits, and it seems like a major flaw and limitation for visibility.
FSD should aim for perfection, because the public is going to hold Tesla to that standard for safety whether it's reasonable or not. Why not add more cameras to the bumpers for improved safety? Heck, they could even add a camera underneath the car so that the car can check for small children or pets that may be playing or hiding. I can already imagine the headlines saying a child's death was avoidable if only the car had cameras that could see the child hiding underneath. FSD has the potential to be exponentially safer than a human, but to achieve that Tesla HAS to eliminate all of these blind spots.
It won't be very long before all cars on the road are networked and can share data and fill in each other's blind spots.
Cyber=steel. 100% Dave. This is going to be the most abused, keyed, controversial vehicle in history of mankind. It has to be dent proof scratch proof rust proof, stainless steel.
It will take time to get a new car into production and quantity. I think they use existing cars with a driver (not driving) for safety until they get the miles they need without accident. And people get to start using the App and get pricing of what the robo taxi will be. When robo taxi is made and rolls out. The people are used to the App and system is go go go
App Store for the bot to do new tasks?
Doesn’t have to be bullet proof. Easier thinner stainless alloy without need for paint FTW. Fast, time is money no paint cost savings.
I wonder why hardly anyone discusses the issue that the majority of votes just rolled in during the last 2 days. My impression: that was incredibly close.
optimus is in many ways easier than robotaxi. a mistake doesn't potentially kill someone or cause personal property damage. (or hospital bills) It doesn't have to be intelligent. it just has to be able to repeat tasks. the software upgradeable aspect of it makes it far easier to just start shipping a "good enough" version that will get smarter and more capable of time.
For a home cleaning optimus, it doesn't even need to initially know where things go. I had cleaners for a while that came every other week. It was my job to put everything away and prep the house for cleaning. It was also my job to do the dishes. they didn't do any of that. That service was $230 per cleaning. start there and the bot doesn't even need to know where things go or what to do with some things. (trash or does it go in a drawer, or whatever). It just has to be able to dust, vacuum and wipe off surfaces. (my cleaning company was a chemical free company. just the power of silver embedded cleaning cloths and hot water)
its mind boggling how amazing a bot would be like that. introduce more and more capabilities over time with software updates. now it will water all your plants and pick the weeds. hey it can do dishes now! etc. the sky is the freaking limit with that thing.
they've done the immensely hard part already of making a bot that can walk and manipulate things. and it sounds like they are close to a final design for a saleable bot.
Robotaxi won’t be fully scaled until AI5 is released and the software is generated. 12 months after AI5.
Dave Lee saying ‘SUCK IT ALL UP’ is hilarious 😂😂
Thanks
38:20 I would disagree a bit. I think cyber does not emphasize the shape or looks as much as it does the functionality (as in computer controlled driving) and the fact that this is the next level of technology