Risks of Nvidia becoming the next Nortel
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- čas přidán 16. 06. 2024
- Ross Healy, chairman at Strategic Analysis Corporation and portfolio manager at MacNicol & Associates Asset Management, joins BNN Bloomberg to discuss the odds of Nvidia becoming the next Nortel.
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Strong BUY. Still early innings. NVIDIA is the dominant leader in AI and the preferred technology partner globally. Even w new competition on the horizon, NVIDIA is far ahead of the competition. 85% market share. 76% margin. Unrivaled demand for new Blackwell chip. Demand far exceeds production for Blackwell through to 2025 and beyond. No competitor has anything close to Blackwell and forward P/E is about 33 (cheap for a high growth stock). Buy this stock and wait. You will be rewarded.
This is Interesting because i bought NVIDIA around September last year. The company is selling shovels in a gold rush. It accounted for almost 80% of my market return last year, and I'm sure this year will present other interesting stocks.
When it comes to investment, diversification is key. That is why I have my interests set on key sectors based on performance and projected growth. They range from the EV sector, renewable energy, Tech and Health (AMD) alongside coins, and gold. I'm also working on an investment plan that includes AI looking into Nvidia, MSFT, Alphabet stocks among others with my Fin. Advisor, . It's been a year and half of steady growth.
I actually subscribed for a few trading courses but it didn't help much, been getting suggestions to use a proper financial advisor, how did you go about touching base with your coach?
Finding financial advisors like Sharon Ann Meny who can assist you shape your portfolio would be a very creative option. There will be difficult times ahead, and prudent personal money management will be essential to navigating them.
I greatly appreciate it. I'm fortunate to have come upon your message because investing greatly fascinates me. I'll look Sharon up and send her a message. You've truly motivated me. God's blessings on you.
Can people outside of the US take advantage of this Nvidia boom too? Can you buy Nvidia shares or other US market shares in general from Canada?
i think you can. dont know how though
Yes it's possible and there are a number of ways you can do this but the easiest is using an F.A in the county you want to invest into... They're not half as expensive as we usually presume and know the markets better... I am in Australia and investing in the American market and it's been wonderful so far... Goodluck.
Thanks. Please how can I get a decent one
You should start by looking out for those from known firms and good track records. You should also make sure the person is licensed. Personally, I use Kelly Matwick. She's good and you could also look her up.
wow!!! its really a small world. she was at our country club weeks ago and played pretty well for a lady
This is exactly why money managers have such a hard time beating the market, they think they’re smarter than it lol
Why we are hearing about AI development analysis from an 80 years old man?
Do not bet against Jensen old men
Thank you for telling your stories. Just let us know when you are trying to buy back. That will be when I sell my NVLD 😄😄😄
Wrong at $50 wrong at $130
How about now?
Buy the dip
@@Sonder2030 Still buying that dip big dawg?
@@onlydivergences I’m not buying the dip cuz I already bought all the dips to average at $17. But I do recommend buying the dips. A year from now it will look dirt cheap.
@@Sonder2030 you’re right. A year from now NVDA will be very, very cheap.
He’s the guy who would ask his teenage son what the heck is Nvidia. I remember buying you that card for $800 during Covid lockdown. His son would reply it’s just a gaming card. Trudeau dropped the ball on AI investment. UofT engineers introduced deep learning, leading to the creation of ChatGPT and OpenAI and the importance of GPUs, setting the pathway for Nvidia’s success. Nvidia, now a trillion-dollar company, has diversified into various industries like robotics, healthcare, manufacturing, autonomous technology, etc. They have established key partnerships and developed AI programming libraries to stay ahead of competitors as you can see from their work in NIMS, Thor, Cuda, NvLink, GROOT, on and on. Comparing Nvidia to Nortel is unfair to the hardworking Nvidians who have shaped the company's success. Nortel went bankrupt because it couldn’t keep its intellectual properties protected from its competitors specifically the Chinese. Nvidia is NOT Nortel.
Gotta know when to hold em, know when to fold em...
All the jealous and angry investors that didn't buy NVIDIA can all gather and cry together!
But is it still a buy? Maybe they r referring to its situation now?
❤️❤️❤️
He literally said he has been in it, and if you go back he was on BNN last year saying buy NVDA. How is taking 300% profits crying?
Nortel tons of debt. Nvidia, where is debt?
“Who is this guy, and how can you compare Nvidia to Nortel? Do you realize how much Nvidia’s GPUs and AI can impact the world? Without replacing Nvidia’s innovations, it’s just Nvidia itself. I invested $20K in GPUs, mined cryptocurrencies, and those investments paid off already-I now have Bitcoin in my wallet and some powerful office computers running editing software.” 😊
You listen to this old head and you will go broke. Nvidia is nothing like Nortel.
This will not age well lol. The same valuation argument could have been made last year, and look what happened. No mention of the tech itself, just the stock. He probably doesn't even know what CUDA is.
Does someone have a short position on Nvidia?
The hedgies probably. A few weeks ago I went to a 7-11 and the cashier said he put all his life saving into the stock
This channel wants all of us to sell NVIDIA so they could buy the dip they missed.
😂 so true
TRUE HAHAHAA They probably couldn't buy enough of it when it was cheap so they came to incite the seller. Haha. But people aren't stupid these days.
most of the money are going into mid caps that includes gambling money, NVDA…I would say it’s slow, up or down matters little to individual but it’s just something to keep S&P afloat , the newest gambling company after mid cap carvana is probably spirit airline, if somebody shorted from 4 dollars to 3.50, 10k shares, that’s a whopping 5k gain in matter of 10 days
It’s the time to buy more shares!
I saw some people bought double
Nvidia the next Nortel, OR, the next Cisco? Don't cook the books and Nortel would still be around. (Signed, Ex-Nortel employee so many years ago)
I'm finding it difficult to add to my positions because of all the negative reports about Nvidia becoming the next Nortel.
“Nortel”…?? The Chinese are undermining Nvidia, too!?
Okay and just before last week it was 50 times PE etc etc. ok bud
I'll buy more
Years ago Netflix was supposed to die because the technology was in its infancy.
Microsoft did not understand Apple's iPod or iPhone business, so it missed the market. nVidia is a platform company in the accelerated computing business. The applications are graphics acceleration and crypto mining acceleration, and today, it is AI training and inferencing acceleration. The AI industry is just beginning right now, so it is too early to sell nVidia at this point in history.
this will completely depend on the rate of development for AI software solutions that will drive hardware sales. Unfortunately, the tech sector has been hit hard and there is a lower chance of innovation right now. If you own Nvidia, watch the AI developers/startups carefully.
I agree Nvidia has it’s risks, but the counter argument is....how many guys like this saw Uber, Air BnB, Facebook, Instagram, etc, etc...etc...coming back in the early innings of the information revolution?
I would say Rolls Royce, not Cadillac. That's how few clients they have in their hundred thousand chip per quarter book. I repeat myself, but repetition is needed. The symbology of Bulls and Bears was well thought out. Bears are not just smarter than the grass eating cows, they can take care of themselves, they are real predators and most of all, they are free. The cow is domesticated, follows its master, often accompanied by a dog, and male cows are usually slaughtered young and sold as veal. Yet most people still want to be the young male cow.
The shift to edge AI means exponentially more demand for GPUs. NVIDIA cannot make enough to meet the growing demand.
Similar things were said about Nortel and Cisco during the Dot Com bubble.
^^^ This is one of several major market realities that will ensure NVIDIA domination for an unusually long run.
I LOVE the fact that we are barely a year into this run and we have people calling it a top, comparing this moment to 2000/2001 (I was there, this is NOTHING like that time) .
First of all, Nvidia in its own right is the leader in innovating in GPU's...after all, they invented them. They aren't following a pack, they are the pack. Their products are in high demand from their customers because they are the best available in the segment.
Second, Nvidia, isn't relying on the lite coffers of a startup that's got 8 months of runway and no revenue, let alone profit. Their major clients include the most capitalized companies ON EARTH, Microsoft, Meta, Apple, Google, Amazon, Oracle and many other "small" fish. These companies aren't going anywhere due to cash runway running out .
Third, because their clients are rich the only real risk is a saturation of demand in a sudden event, we can see this from unforseen macro events like wars and pandemics but these are exceedingly improbable and we just had one of each to distrupt economies over the last 3 years...unlikely we'll see another of each any time soon. Demand saturation then is dependent on the limit that the clients will reach for AI hardware. What is that limit?
Turns out AI hardware runs very differently from traditional CPU compute .... parallelization starts in the data structures used to represent the neural models that define the core innovation of AI. These then are coded to optimally run on dedicated parallelized hardware in the form of GPU cores. Simultaneous execution of workloads is limited only by the amount of available compute once the models are optimized to run on the cluster ...meaning thee bigger the cluster the faster the model can be trained OR after training, deployed for inference.
This means that there's no retirement cycle as existed for CPU clusters where your entire cluster is generally only as fast as your slowest compute node...with accelerated clusters the more nodes you add the bigger the model you can train and the faster it trains. MORE IS ALWAYS BETTER.
This is a fundamental distinction that Wall st. "analysts" wouldn't have a clue about...it's technical weeds info that I only know because I am literally a system architect.
So what does that have to do with Nvidia's persistence in growth over the next few years?
Well, it means Nvidia's clients are in a race where the more electrolyte infused water they drink the faster they can run...to win every runner will naturally try to drink as much water as possible. In this analogy the "water" is more GPU...doesn't matter if it's the Hopper of last year, the Blackwell of next year or the Ruben of the year after that...all of it can be added to a cluster to make that cluster better at running models today than it was yesterday. The "Race" of course is to emerge smarter and smarter models that can be deployed into inference services that can be monetized in the clients EXISTING respective ecosystems. Apple, Meta, Amazon...Google...etc. all MUST AI-ify their entire stack using these trained models in order to keep up with the capabilities of the competing ecosystem.
That will NEVER reach saturation....further the distinction between training and inferencing is often omitted. For a given model size , training will take a fixed known time to achieve a desired level of capability. Once trained that hardware can be augmented and then a bigger model trained on it OR that hardware can be reconfigured to deploy the trained model for inferencing services. This last quarter was the first that demonstrated that the bread and butter of AI indeed has legs. All the Nvidia clients presented tangible revenue results from their first deployed services ....this is validation of AI as "a thing" but it also means that as user adoption grows as AI services are used to rebuild the ecosystems the percentage of AI hardware necessary to be deployed for inference MUST go up, inference requests run against the whole cluster and though parallelizable within a prompt request they are sequential across prompt requests...so again,, the more hardware the better...and because you CAN'T easily reconfigure training compute to be inference compute in real time, the clients have to maintain separate clusters for both...doubling their hardware requirements at base but requiring more hardware in inferencing at a faster rate as user adoption in stood up services balloons.
Are you starting to taste a hint of what Nvidia is about to do yet?
If so, you'll excuse me for laughing at the "not even wrong" conclusion of this guest. He doesn't even realize how off he is....but that's OUR opportunity. Now excuse me, I think Nvidia is down today so it's time to buy a little bit of green magic. ;)
My bad, Nvidia is up again...so I bought more Tesla instead...this is going to sound insane to some of you but it's going to do even better than Nvidia within the coming year. I'll provide a deep dive into that gem another time. ;)
My Uber driver was raving about Nvidia today
Only Canadian technology companies lose it all after cornering a market.
Just a reklam for his book
This guy needs to do a hell of a lot more home work on Nvidia. It might come down one day. But it’s not at that point right now.
💰💰💰💰💰 5M
Looks like a blow-off top in the making. I wouldn't touch NVDA, here.
How is Nvidia reaching the peak when there is still more demand than supply as of June 2024? Microsoft is still supposed to build a $100 Billion Data Center with Open AI, and there is unmet demands of GPUs from the smaller cap companies since the GPUs are being purchased by all the larger cap companies? I am saying all this knowing that there is international demand for GPUs that are still not realized. Take all this into consideration whle knowing that GPUs can only be made in limited quantities due to the sophistaced process it takes to build them.
Breaking news: Old man who only understands business doesn't understand technology. Next up: Why you should invest in yahoo because it's some guys dads favorite email.
Did he really compare the chips Nvidia makes with the chips Apple is putting in their new phone>
NVDA will have deep correction. I see quite many comments of people who are emotionally attached to this stock. Not a good sign.
This video was not worth my time.
I would be out too but I did not buy it
It was overvalued at $500/share, two splits ago.
What is nortel? There has never been anything like nVidia 🖤💚📈🇺🇸
This guy knows nothing about the industry. If he would just look at...oh never mind.
Are Nvidia middle and upper managers spending their days drinking in a bar on Dundas St? No?
Probably not like Nortel then.
Nobody I know bought NVDA anything.
90% of the people I know have bought Apple products. 80% of the people I know have Microsoft products and either pay for services and/or bought Microsoft based computers.
No doubt, NVDA will have long-term durability, but they will have to spend some money. I'm not seeing them spend money.
NVDA is only at the starting line lol!! Even Kathy was wrong and sold too early and her Tesla call haven’t been working lately 🤕 and wtf is he talking about competitors? You don’t want a second hand AI chip ! Good luck!
Sounds like cathie woods
I'm looking for the next Enron. How about you? Can you spelling irrational exuberance? No?
He doesn't even sound convincing. Zero conviction. For good reason.
Once people realize the entire AI industry is a meme it will crash
elaborate
It really isn't a meme. Its potential applications are vast. If you don't see how, you're thinking too small, likely only in the scope of chatbots; whereas the real selling point is the massive productivity boost across medicine, technology, research etc.
but its not a meme....its real tech thats going to take your job but its understandable to deflect and doubt that inevitability
@@brightlight3520 yea... Once all the slave labor jobs get replaced by AI what other serious use does it have
It will be not next Nortel. It will be next Intel. When Intel stock price hit 72$ on 25 august 2000, investors were thinking same. it is unbeatable as everybody on planet needs a computer and only Intel makes best CPUs. After 24 years, Intel made so much more revenues yet never saw 72$ per stock still trading less than half. Upcoming years all major chips companies will hit market with new GPUs. While one company sells extremely expensive GPU with astronomical profit margin others will not sit and watch.
It will when the market runs out of the next greater fools.
Nortel was a dog, fell behind and failed to innovate.
NVidia is the innovator.
No1 is talking about huaweii new ai chip .. is going to smash Nvidia's sales
Huawei is doing fantastic despite the sanctions preventing them from accessing TSMC and ASML's EUV equipment, however.... however they are tied to SMIC at the hip now. SMIC is going to have to resort to expensive and time consuming quad patterning in order to achieve the lower nm transistor nodes needed to compete with Nvidia.
@AthleticHobo-br4qh they will have a new chip out in August that will crush every1 .. just keep on sanctioning the chinese .. they just jump over and reinvent themselves.. Bigger /Better ..
ps nvidia is finished .. best to get off that sinking ship
@@philipsimmonds1103 🤡 stay jealous stay poor
@AthleticHobo-br4qh there is a mass exodus of Chinese scientists back to China .. more talent and start-ups coming to continue to smash the US once dominance in the market .. it's Over.
Is this a satire?
Hyperbole much?
Does this guy even understand that Nvidia sells the tools not just one product? 😂 why do they even post this trash!?
Right, you must sell nvidia right now, every single share, and never ever touch it again.
BS😂
@@tylercampbell6365 of course it is bs, but unfortunately, some people will sell it all
Bloomberg....interview someone who actually understand the topics better instead of someone who likes to make stuff up in his head. Nortel comparison?
This guy doesn't know anything about the sector, clearly has no idea that all the big companies are increasing their capex for AI, not decreasing...
He must have some sort of short position 😅
The guys is talking about the cost of the Chip instead of cost of operation. Every next generation of Chip Nvidia produces is not only faster , but it is also cheaper to operate and uses less energy, by a lot. So you can scale those AI models even more. Imagine Tesla makes new model every year that double the range it can travel on one charge? Can Tesla increase the price of the car by 20 percent then? Would that be expensive?
Is official. We need NORTEL NETWORKS, and we all need to reinstall the CS1000 NORTEL MERIDIAN NORSTAR BCM again. The NORTEL MERIDIAN NORSTAR BCM is NOT an obsolete enterprise solutions, and has to be remanufactured all of them again, the M and the T series sets.