List of Recommended cEDH commanders for tournaments
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- čas přidán 11. 07. 2024
- It is really hard to make a cEDH tierlist and claim it to be true! But I belive I am getting close and closer. But I would like to frame it that the commanders you see in this thumbnail are the recommended ones. I think of them all equal.
KINNAN WINRATE EXPLAINED
• Kinnans tournament win...
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I would be very interested in seeing data on the best winrate of commanders piloted by inexperienced players rather than experienced players; so i can maybe give better recommendations for new players
I agree
Ir would be great to see the biggest gaps between good and “bad” players
Great idea
You know what! Lets do that!
I dont understand how Rogsi has so many more tournaments than every other deck. It has 150% of the entries of blue farm when blue farm is like 4x more popular according to stats.
This entire video have excluded all beginner players. A lot of beginners are playing bluefarm. while clkose to only veteran players play rog si. But now we are only looking at how veteran players do vs other veteran players. NOT veterans vs beginners. You could say.
Should probably create new terms: replace "reference number" or "total average" with "Skilled Win Rate average" just to be more precise, especially for those who have not seen previous videos. Other than that, I really like the statistical approach.
A pseudocentralized balanced meta is pretty rad. This is pretty sweet.
These stats are incredibly interesting. Everyone was saying korvold is good. I always pointed at the mid tier winrate. But actually it seems pretty promising. At this point I need to play yissan just for the stats
Keep up the good work. Its always nice to see the number and statistic side of magic at play
I would love to hear more information on Sefris, maybe a deeper dive? What lists are they using?
Great video!
Cool series!
Thank you for analyzing Kenrith, the returned king
Cheers
Nice, Blues clues showing up again. And at +34% none the less
When it comes to Cedh Tymna/Kraum is very promising as it provides a great deal of card advantage as well as in Thorcal/Consult colors with the best interaction and ways to protect the combo in your turn via counter magic/(white for silence effects). Having red for Dockside, Wheels, and Breech pushes this deck very hard it’s truly imo the best deck in the format
1 thing I recommend is if anyone getting into the format or any format know your deck inside and out, strengths and weaknesses and learn to adapt accordingly. I personally am partial to Grenzo Doomsday and though I do not play this deck as often due to my knowledge of the deck I have piloted the deck to some pretty amazing victories. If you plan on entering an event bring the deck your most comfortable playing and just enjoy your time!
YOOOOO, Sefris bros let's go! Mons' pessimism can't keep us down!
I built TnT without knowing it wasnt been played that much anymore, but i love it lol. A little bit difficult to make a sans red ad naus deck work but im testing some shit and im enjoying it a lot
It would be nice to have your final slide with winrate and entries ontop of commanders 😉😗
Great content anyway
Great video! Any data on Jhoira Weatherlight captain?
To few games for this method.
Great video, Not surprised to see rogsi underperforming tbh always seems overhyped, not thats its bad though. Also slightly surprised to see Stella’s win rate that low based on results I’ve seen, maybe moves up with more data but at the same time it is a very stoppable combo.
Yeah I have heard a lot of people saying they belive it is not that good.
TNT IS BACK ON THE MENU BOYSSS
YES!
Im glad to see the deck ive grown to love showing up at tables, aleit not as prevalent as before. Ive been playing tayam now for abt a year and a half just because every game feels like its its own unique puzzle i need to solve on a scale i just cant find with any other cedh deck. I understand that its fallen off, but im curious about ur opinion on something. What kind of card do they need to print for these sorts of grindy creature decks to truly be relevant again?
I really wish we had more data on Talion. Seems to be a commander that's very player skill dependent
From what i can tell, Talion should be getting better numbers as it's literally just "better blue farm" but your naming a number. if anything it may only be getting "held back" because of it's lack of color identity, though it has access to the two most important ones.
I play Talion way different than the normal Talion. No Bloodchief Ascension. The issue is decks are different, not every deck with the same commander should be concluded as equal. Even Ob Nixilis has tons of variation
Hey Mons! I'm completely cool with a direct message on discord or something if necessary, but why have you decided to exclude Erinis + Street Urchin from the data?
No Gaddock Teeg on this list??? That's b.s ! He's the best! 😂 ❤❤❤
has this list included the data from the Cowtown Throwdown? I know there were a lot of Rog Si lists in that top 16. If it does... holy cow Rog Si is stinkin it up D:
Yes it has.
@@cedhtv wow-wee, that is sobering for Rog Si stats. But good to know! Very well researched.
I love the stats but I wonder how to factor in the fact that kinnan generates hate and ire of other players differently. Kinnan thrives on pretty normal mundane moves. Dork, dork, rock for most decks is nothing. With Kinnan, people panic
I think that is a big factor. But bigger for Rog/si. That deck draws attention to it. But Kinnan also gets target quite a lot I would say.
You know the biggest issue with commander win rates? The deck is 98 or 99 other cards with variation. This data isn't reliable
That is what most of my deck tech videos answer. I look into EACH individual card choice and different card combinations to answer that to. This is just an overview.
Surprised of not seeing Talion
Talions was showcased I think in the not recommended area.
I don't find much use for this type of content. A matchup analysis would have been a better use for all the research.
I don't fully understand what you mean with a matchup analysis? Like looking at what commander wins over other commanders?
i am curious about the variety of the most successful players. i am sure that one trick ponies are going to be benefited but it would be interesting how many decks some of the better players have brought to tournaments and with how of them they have gotten into top 16 and top 4.
i hope i phrased it well enough for it to make sense. i am kinda fried by the heat today.
I don't have data on how many of them got into top 16 or top 4. Just the winrate. Personally I think that is a better metric. But I do have the amount of different commanders. You saw that in the video.
@@cedhtv yeah you are probably right that doesn't matter for the best performing players. even one off weekend wouldn't change their overall stats.
ok i failed to communicate what i meant or you stated it and i missed it. i mean we won't be able to find anything with statistical significance but i would like to see how many of the good players entered with different commanders between tournaments. if one trick ponies seem to be rewarded for their loyalty to a deck. if you said it in the video sorry it is 18 minutes i must have missed it.
Ah I think I understand what you mean. Your asking how many different decks the good players play? or how many of najeela are being played in each week or in each tournament on average kinda? is this kinda of what your asking for? Like how many people play sisay and how many people play tivit or how many different commanders the good players do play?
@@cedhtv " how many different decks the good players play?" i think this is what i meant. we have for over two weeks now 30 plus Celsius even during midnight. i am just happy i managed to communicate this.
Ratadrabik of Urborg
For a lot of tours, a draw is as nearly as important as a win e.g. 2 wins/1 draw = top16. I think you are missing this analysis, although I believe you have the data. You could come up for good commanders in 64 player tours.
Draws are counted as loss in my calculation. I have thought about ignoring draws. but for now it counts as a loss. I would love to have a disscussion about if that should be different.
@@cedhtv My guess, and I can be completely wrong, is that decks with similar win rates do not have similar draw rates. In your statistics in other videos, draw differences were higher than 15% difference between some decks. Taking into consideration that intentional draws should equalize this difference, this is a significant difference. It can be in some setups be more important than 5% in rate difference. For example, in a tour of 100 people, often one needs 11 points for a top16. That means 2 wins and 1 draw. In this case a deck with 20% win chance and 20% draw chance is more likely to make top16 than a deck with 25% win chance and 10% draw chance. I m not sure if that is some content space you want to look into, but I assume you have the data already.
Btw, it is wierd that you showed braids, as I m the only ever player who brought this deck to a bigger event as far as I know. And I m investing less time than most tour people on playing cedh. On the other side, I was very happy about it. :)
Did I miss Tivit? oh there he is, huh not bad.
YES Tivit is good.
I feel like this is a really weird way to analyze the data but it’s kinda cool
what is weird about it?
Why do you recommend Atraxa without showing the winpercent of the non-beginners like you showed for every other commander you recommend?
Oh sorry I did that in the other video I meantioned at the beginning of this video. She has a 30,90% winrate.
@@cedhtv Alright! Thank you very much. Good stuff on all this data
Where is rog tevesh smh
TO few games to say anything.
Is the gitrog monster still a thing ?
NOOOO! Or well it struggels is the word. It can win a game here and there but it is not recommended.
eh, i think you need to pick out your "good" players subset based on results up to a certain date and then see how their win rates are going forward from that date. otherwise you are directly skewing the data to the upside for the commander you are analyzing.
You could do a crude normalization multiplying the win rate by 1 - alpha instead of just doing sig vs noj sig
So looking at how you were composing the data, I think it is a mistake to filter by winrate.
You are trying to determine how "good" the decks are based on their winrate. You are filtering your data to only include players that have above a certain winrate. That means that the more players you filter OUT of your data, the more you are inflating a deck's winrate. If a deck is very popular amongst experienced players, unpopular amongst inexperienced players, and is having enough success that a large majority of its pilots are passing that threshold, its numbers will not increase much.
That's what's happening with Rog/Si. The deck is too popular amongst experienced pilots, too unpopular amongst inexperienced pilots, and performing too consistently across pilots for your filters to inflate its winrate.
Ultimately, if you're testing a statistic it's a mistake to filter data on that statistic.
This is actully solved if you look at the video I meantioned at the start of this video. And all videos done before this have been looking at it from different angels.
You could say I have been doing what your asking for in other videos. I do look at winrate and other things from different angels and this is a new angel.
First :)
Hi Tangelo!
i don't want to sound like i'm "yucking your yum" but i truly feel that we still need to remember that the commander format was created to be a "Casual" format and meant to be a "home" for cards we have in our collection that either "are no longer legal to play in any other format" or "got banned from [insert format here]."
While it's fun to play with the "top of the top" and have "prizes on the line" because of the nature of the commander format you could be playing all the best cards, playing them at the most opportune moment. Holding back when you could had made a play and being glad you did. And still lose.
There's also the problem your trying to solve which seems like an impossible task, there are commander options that have been around for a long time that "do" perform well in a more competitive setting but for whatever reason players either stopped playing that commander option or opponents would find it easy to stop that player from "playing the game."
i feel like there would have to be a decent group of players who KNOW the game really well to do games where it's in many different variations and against various other players. Such a task should take about two thousand years. Could input all this data into an AI and "pokemon battle" each commander deck and their variations through a simulation done by a computer? Just means making the AI go through EVERY relevant card choice for each commander with about one hundred games per variation of a commander deck and in the end i feel all we will accomplish is a whole new way to define "net decking."
I dont think you can claim nadu as confirmed and not sefris, nadu just came out
He just say is gambling that nadu will be good
@SeniorNano yeah, the data in this format just isn't reliable. However, Nadu's first month of cedh tournament results are the strongest of any commander released, ever.
Don’t waste time to see this video , he don’t have card collection, only play proxys, I don’t see he go to tournaments, some of the deck he say are good , need a lot of training and consistency. There are much better CZcams cedh creators doing a good job and explaining what is good and what can perform hell .
Peace
Who pissed in your coffee?
He is breaking down data and using data science and statistics. It doesn't matter if he has real cardboard, doesn't matter if he plays tournaments, and doesn't matter if he plays CEDH or mtg period. For this video, the only thing that matters is whether the numbers and math are accurate.
I watch a lot of CEDH creators and have never seen anybody crunch the numbers like this to give an accurate reflection of the meta and which decks are actually good. Kinnan win% looks very bad, but I've known expert players clean up tournaments with it.
I think all cEDH players play with proxis. I still do have a large card collection. And instead of my opinions you see data. tournament resualts. I think that is better.
:)
WHO are you brother? What did you do for the cedh community? I will ask again bro, WHO are you? Never heard about you, so Sit down bitch and be humble.