POGAČAR & UAE Are Making MISTAKES
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I actually think there is some psychological power to how Tadej/ UAE handled Jonas once they had him isolated in the mountains. He is surrounded by UAE guys and lurking behind him in his wheel where he cannot see him Poggy.... Also he looked completely shattered by the end of the race.
I know everyone is saying Jonas will continue getting stronger but it seems logical that his injuries would complicate his recovery, and that daily recovery process will be compounded over the next two weeks. I guess we'll see.
This is true IF Jonas' injuries were as bad as the Visma PR team portrayed to the public. Maybe they put a PR spin on his crash to make the competition underestimate him...
I agree - I'm a Pogi fan but what Jonas went through with his crash in is just SO horrible and it's a minor miracle that he can even do ONE stage let alone be competitive - enjoy the tour !
This sort of thing happened last year as well - Pogi taking about 30 secs on the Tourmalet. Only Jonas had taken a minut the day before. Actually the previous three tours have all been like this. Pogacar being the strongest in week one, form levelling out in week two, and Vingegaard being the strongest in week three.
Vingegaard is probably the best in the world at recovering strenght over time - this has obvioulsy also been a huge advantage in recovering from such a serious injury.
@@martinhelgren Yeah I agree but I'm afraid that this time, he may not be able to recover in the same effective way. I hope I'm wrong because I admire the guy's courage big time but still hoping for Pogi on the top GC step :-) cheers - enjoy the tour !
He won't get stronger. Jonas always peaked in the third week because he planned it and his preparations allowed him to. With the injuries cutting down his preparation significantly, there's no reason to believe he'll follow his usual trajectory, it might even go the other way and he'll crack completely in the third week.
The demolition job on the Galibier was the sort of thing that fans want to see - the raw power and total realisation of a team of riders who are immensely talented showing what they can do to their rivals. Almeida looked terrifying on the front, and seemed comfortable at 450 watts. This formation will strike so much fear into the peloton as we move further into the race. Just of the sight of them coming together again will break their rivals’ hearts. Massive respect to Jonas - his ability to suffer is second to none.
Never watched a race until 4 days ago. Now I’m watching the TV calling ayuso a knucklehead for not pulling. Appreciate the coverage - learning and understanding more makes watching much more enjoyable :)
I recommend Lanterne Rouge's highlights and Laterne Rouge Cycling Podcast, both here on youtube. You'll enjoy road cycling even more.
Careful…it’s a slippery slope before you are watching random classics in the spring to see how some 8th rider on a team is doing as a possible indication of how a team may perform in a grand tour 😂
@@danshort10😂
@@danshort10spot on
I will write what I see others have pointed out already in the comments:
1. The plan was to attack sooner, but they decided against it because of headwind. I am sure that they know better than us sitting at home whether the wind was a problem for early attack or not.
2. There is no basis for belief that Jonas will keep getting better. He might just as well likely get worse. He is missing preparation and to me it's more likely that it shows in week 3, not week 1. If his main problem was lack of competitive racing before the Tour, then I would agree that he can ride himself into form. But this is different animal.
3. Ayuso was definitely not supporting Pogacar 100%. This might be his end of TdF participation as UAE rider. It's not just that Pogacar is there, but the other riders will not want to pull for him even if UAE is without Pogacar. He needs to be careful because if he gets reputation that he is not following team instruction and pulling for the captain, he will have problems throughout his career. You can't win anything alone.
Exactly. The first two points are the most important yet everyone somehow ignores them.
" Pogi only put 8 secs into Jonas on the climb and Jonas will just get better in the third week" is usually what people say
To answer your second point, yes there is basis to believe Jonas will get better in week 3. What basis is that? Well, empiric proof, since that's what's happened the last three GT's he's ridden. The last two years of the Tour, Pogacar has done the same he's done today - attack and gain seconds - and that will keep happening as he's a more explosive rider. But the last two Tours (and last year's Vuelta) has shown that when Vingegaard attacks, he takes minutes. And he attacks late in the GT's, he doesn't mind coming from behind. So the basis to believe is there, in emperical form, as it has happened multiple times before. Jonas has a unique skill to not get at tired as the rest over the course of the three weeks of riding. His stamina in unparalelled and his ability to recover is second to none in this sport.
We'll see if that is gonna happen again, but it has happened before.
14:22 wrong you want to attack from the back of Vingegaard for maximum surprise, come on Chris that’s one of the first tactics you learn! How do you not know that?
@@dippegalant again comes the silly talking point. You keep forgetting that this isn't the Jonas from the previous grand tours. He has had pretty much no preparation nor race days in his legs coming up to the Tour, he didn't even know what form he was really in. And you think he's prepared sufficiently to follow the trajectory of peaking in the last week? People constantly say "well he'll get better in the last week because he always did" well no, he didn't "just get better" he got better because he prepared specificaly for it. This time around, those preparations have been cut short in time and in intensity because of his crash. If anything, he'll crack completely in the final week.
@@dippegalant Your arguments are not valid in my opinion and here are the problems I see with them:
1. You are talking about empirical evidence based on Jonas "No Problem" Vingegaard, not Jonas "Collapsed Lung and Broken Colarbone" Vingegaard. We have precisely zero empirical evidence to prove your assumption.
2. Perhaps you are following some other people and communities, but from what I see and read, people are claiming 3rd week Super Jonas because of his time off bike and his injuries, not because of the empirical evidence you posted. And for that reason I am arguing those arguments.
3. If I really wanted to argue your argument (even though, as said in second point, I am addressing completely different argumentation), I would say that Pogacar's regeneration is just as good as Vingegaards, if not better. If there is one thing where Vingegaard seems to be better is, that he seems to be benefiting from a rest day more than anyone else, just as Remco seems to be benefiting from altitude training more than his competitors for the first week. But all this is irrelevant. I don't see why would Jonas be riding himself into form here, when it's base training that he is missing, not competitive racing.
Enlightening analysis as always. However, I think it is also good to listen to what the protagonists had to say about how the stage develops. UAE riders changed their plan on the fly according to Gianetti (OK, some people will say he's not telling the truth but it is still interesting). They were all supposed to pull in turn with Yates being the last man. However, Yates did not feel good so he decided to go before. Then Almeida and Ayuso decided to take shorter turns because of the very strong headwind. Tadej said he did not attack before because of the wind. Only the last km is steep, so had he attacked before on the flatter 3~6% section Jonas would have stayed in the wheel benefiting from a lot of draft. Definitely looked like Ayuso wanted to play for himself a bit, but Almeida was amazing in reminding him who the boss is
Chris I love the drama and the dynamics of racing… but this time I don’t think Jonas has time to recover. I think by day 14-16 all the guys that got injured will blow out. Every hilly stage UAE will go all out. Today they saved Adam.
Pogi does well in first week but would be weakened by second week due to the Giro fatigue. Jonas to put 60s on ITT.
Jonas is fresh. Slow and steady like a turtle 🐢 to last 3 weeks to beat the hare 🐇
I’m afraid Pogi wasted energy in Giro and it will show in two weeks time in TDF.
They didnt save Adam. He gave what he had. They will use him more in punchy places for sure. Almeida was already better than him in tour of switzerland where he worked for him the entire tour and almost won anyway.
You missed the other half of his sentence...if Tadej has a bad day. People need to open their ears
@@americosantos4324 they did save him. And they are going to use different people to do work on different days to crack the Jumbo squad. The team is the issue as much as the rider. That isn’t something that can be overcome. Period. Unless you think Jumbi will magically become the equal of the UAE squad, this race is over for first.
Great tactics from UAE. Clearing the forest whilst Visma LAB is caught up in the trees
Pog said the headwind is why he did not go earlier
Well he’s not gonna say “my legs were feeling a little heavy” is he? Not this early in the race. But that does make sense as he won the Giro by TEN minutes.
@@2wheelsgood.But at the Giro none of the best 30 riders were present except for Tadej
@@2wheelsgood. I think doped alien Pogacar doesn't feel anything.
@@rexmundi273 if pogacar is an alien I don't know what vingegaard is lmao
@@Quanbe77 Anchovy
Ayuso looking like a old fox , playing the "i am tired" game ... If Almeida don't scream at him i bet he don't even come to the front.
He’s very selfish like pidcock he doesn’t want to domestique
There will be a conversation on the bus. Even Tadej noticed that Auyuso was MIA.
I think there was definitely gamesmanship going on, even by the team.
Ayuso is a domestique, and he needs to do his job which is to help the Pogačar win the TDF. Not a sly fox. A selfish pxrima donna.
The UAE has young talents on this year's tour. These riders won’t be domestiques next year. They will aim to race as leaders themselves on different grand tours.
Jonas is amazing considering what he's been through..
As a Pogi fan I hate to admit it but you are right. Jonas is incredibly impressive especially when we compare to Wout who’s had an extra moth to recover from a similar injury and is nowhere near his top form.
@@Caffeinatedtechnerd They are both so close, it makes racing fun to watch. I like V's humility, but I'd be happy to see either win.
💯
hes finding out what its like to not have the superior team for a change
@@Caffeinatedtechnerd why does it make you hate "admitting" something just because you are a fan of Pogacar. I genuinely dont' understand that line of thinking, so I am curious.
Missed kuss today. That descent was definitely hair raising.
It was scary watching!
couldn't watch it, terrifying
I think JV missed Sepp Kuss more than anybody… as soon as he was isolated, he always looked behind to see who could help, just like Nairo Quintana does.
missing quite a few visma top guys :( its a shame it would have been nice to see UAE and visma with their A team.
Not just UAE
Conspiracy Theory: is Kus covid sick and saving his legs to defend his Vuelta title, seeing how his teammates JV and Roglic "competed" for the Red jersey last yr?
What a breakdown Chris! UAE could have put serious damage on the other riders and may have made this tdf a lot closer than it needs to be at this point. Wow heard that from no one else. Your videos are key to understanding what's really going on. Thanks again!
Check out Lanterne Rouge Cycling Podcast as well. They were saying the exact same thing during their live stream of the climb. Also some good insight into strategy on that channel as well.
Interesting. Everyone I listened to, said the same thing about Ayuso debacle. Btw, question Chris. Maybe you can explain this for us all the fans on your next video. "How is it that everyone is saying that Jonas will get better week 3 while Pogacar was in the same situation, he finally ran out a gas on week 3? Jonas came to the race with lack of 100% form, just like Pogacar last year. Even Pogacar's injury and his time away from bike is a lot less than Jonas. Jonas came back from a hole on his lung.
We all saw, same question was asked about Pogacar last year. Was he ready? And yes, Pogacar looked good (just like what we saw Jonas). But VL methodically tired Pogacar throughout the 3 weeks, until finally he cracked. So with that logic, how is it that Jonas will get better on 3rd week? Logic said that, if you don't have a good preparation, you are somewhat lack of your fitness. Eventually, things will unraveled.
This is puzzling me. Why didn't we are all said the samething about Pogacar last year? Oh, Pogacar will get better. Or is it because after we saw Pogacar attacked and managed to drop Jonas, we all thought.. oh he was back to the Pogacar we know. I always believe, that his capitulation last year is mostly due to his lack of proper preparation. Yes, I understand about the physiology of each rider is different. But lack of form is lack of form. No? There's no magic bullet for that.
I guess the idea is that Jonas has good base form, but he is still recovering and hasn't had enough preparation, so with more time on the calender and in the legs he will get better. Is it true? That remains to be seen. But we all hope so!
I really can’t see Jonas “recovering”. How can you recover during the Tour? The only question is whether Pogi will have to invest so much more than Jonas and therefore lose more power compared to Jonas.
Because the actual injuries were completely different. There is much more potential to gain with Jonas considering his injuries than Pogi last year with his fractured wrist.
Totally agree with you. Last year, Tadej cannot manage the race as planed. He had to attack whenever possible to make up the gap from the first mountain stage which, in addition to the injury, lead to a poor energy management and the final crack in the 16/17 stages. This will happen to Jonas this year. When he attack, Tadej has many strong teammates to help cover and otherwise, Tadej will attack when he feels comfortable, which is well managed. The only uncertainty is from ITT, let's see what will happen with that.
Imo you can't count on your rival getting worse. You have to assume maybe he will get better and prepare yourself for that situation.
Have to disagree with your opinion about UAE having to be up front with wellens and soler when the rest were back in the group. It was a steady low percentage climb into a raging headwind. They were riding it fast enough that you know theres not going to be any GC attacks and by being further back in the bunch there getting better cover from the wind!
Totally agree and it was a clear tactic to save watts. I actually think this is where Juan got the idea late in the climb. Doesn’t mean he wasn’t saving himself but that is def where the concept came from. Farther back is way way better in that situation.
That’s what you hear the commentators telling you when you watch the racing. There is no better draft when the peleton is strung out single file line being that far back. Yes for sure it could be marginal from second to third and maybe even fourth depending on the wind but the wind was all over so you always want to with your team on the front sitting 8th instead of 50th. 50th is plan ridiculous and has no positive value what so ever., just the opposite. Absolutely zero. So the next time you hear the commentator tell you that, send them a message and say Horner just called you knucklehead for spreading that ridiculous story. 😜🤪🦋👊
Please teach our and tell UAE what you think
I get what you are saying, but the wind is a cross wind. Each person flairs out to which ever side the wind isn't coming from in order to get better protection from the wind. If you are behind your guys, they give you enough room to get to that side for a better wind break. If you are following the competition, they may hug the side of the road so you can't get at that angle for better protection from a cross wind.
You can watch Jonas sitting 3/4 wheel if you don’t believe. 😜🦋
Adam Yates comment on stage 4 with a subtle dig at his younger teammate(s): "I needed to do my job early, because some guys weren't in position, but yeah
Great recap as usual Chris!! Love watching & learning!
9:00 Chris there was mainly headwind that's why Pogi was sitting deep in the bunch to be as sheltered as possible. There was no way a GC guy was going to attack the UAE train at that stage of the stage
Pogocar wanted Jonas in front of him when he attacked. This way, he could get a couple of sharp pedal strokes into him before Jonas could react.
YOU are the very best Director Sportiv in the business. 100% no one comes close to you when it is about making the right calls for in-race strategies. Of all the directors, none has the vision of predicting the race as you visualize it. And of all the people in the World Tour business you are the best for telling others how they should race.
It was almost my bed time-glad this uploaded when it did!
💤🦋👊
Ayuso has non team player vibes by not rotating in with Almeida. Could be a problem later. He did redeem myself by getting the time bonus on the line. Good on Almeida for calling him out. VLB is in trouble if they can’t get their poop together. Was a bit disappointed that Wout pulled the pin so early. Wonder if this is a training block for the Olympics for him.
Almieda signed on to help Pog, not to have another teammate leach of his hard work! Ayuso is a POS!
If Jonas drops early enough for Wout being there to make a difference, then Jonas is out of the running anyhow.
Almeida turning into the leader Pog needs. Listen it’s not always fun and games when you go to work (and make no mistake, these are professionals and this is their job!) sometimes you have to speak up. Doesn’t matter if you’re a “leader” everyone can show leadership skills no matter your role. Good on Almeida for not settling and speaking up. Now it’s time for Ayuso to redeem himself.
Everyone wants to be the star of the team can't fault someone for being unhappy about being a slave
@@redkeyspoke Yeah - this year. Remember when Wout dropped Pogacar on Hautacam after being in the break all day? Have to think '22 Wout finds a way to be useful on these days by sticking in the break or going deeper into the race, Having him in this shape is a blow for Visma, especially when no one else is able to help much.
The greatest CZcams mystery is exactly why Campenaerts is ‘his’ man.
got him in fantasy 😂
Not sure, but Chris has also ridden for Lotto sponsored teams.
Have to love those aggressive riders. He's fun to follow.
MMVC!🎉
It's one of the greatest mysteries. It's up there with what the Rock was cooking. I'm afraid we'll never find out.
Ayuso is a knucklehead ! He thinks he did himself a favor by holding back and not pulling... but in actuality he revealed himself to be a non-team player. Not to mention pissing off his teammates.
Or inexperienced. But I get yer.
It would’ve been better to have a selfless super domestique climber like Rafal Majka. Ayuso seems to have his own agenda! Thankfully Adam and Joao are still working selflessly! A rider like Tadej comes once in a lifetime! But he can’t do it with the team!
I hope they set Ayuso straight back at the post race team meeting!
Thanks for the excellent race analysis! 👊🙏🦋
Pog is definitely in a league of his own at this year’s tour. The team will fix their mistakes since they probably watch the best analyst that we love ❤❤❤❤
Great coverage of the stage today. Like the knucklehead call on Wout and MVDP I do like how they race though just like to ride hard. Keep up the awesome inside take on the race.
yeah not sure about calling mvdp a knucklehead. he hasnt been racing and probably just stretching the legs. also i dont think he cares about the tdf as much as the rest of these guys. hes really only there for jasper. maybe one day he’ll take it more seriously. its just not that high of a priority at the moment for him.
Excellent video, as usual, and I loved the way you pointed out the little details and missed opportunities byUAE, like not putting himself at the road's edge downwind of his teammates.
Chris, you are well spoken and the energy you display definitely makes this exciting. I look forward to seeing what you have to say in the coming stages.
Chris there was always reason for Tarej bad day in previous TdF. Nutrition, wasting energy, Visma super team, wrist injury. I feel like the only factor this year could be Giro in his legs but it could be covered by his team who has finally got an advantage over Visma this year.
Ayuso is the weak link, for sure~he's just not reliable! Almeida was HUGE today, as was Politt. For sure, they weren't PERFECT~but at least UAE didn't blow up any of their guys too badly, so it's onwards and upwards to the final goal!🎖
Oh yeah, and Jonas LOST his whole team!!!😵💫
Wrong again...The headwind was the factor that changed UAE's tactics. They were limited there with the climb's gradient and headwind. The only way Pogi could have attacked earlier was if the team managed to isolate Jonas 8-5km before the top of Galibier (Jorgenson dropped 4,5km before the top). Why there? Because that's where the other "steep" part is (7-8%), along with the final 1km (9-10%). In that section Pogi has a chance to drop Jonas and enough uphill road to make a gap. On the 5-6% he wasn't going to drop Jonas and would just be wasting energy eating the wind while Jonas sucks his wheel as usual. So it was actually smart to wait for the final steep km and maximize the reward with a short burst.
Now the Ayuso thing I agree with you. I won't speculate what was the thinking there, but he should have been at the front. The reason Almeida and Ayuso were rotating was the wind and also keeping them in the GC tactics game for the upcoming stages. Both are also good in the TT.
Also, Jonas looked gassed at the top of Galibier and dead at the finish. I don't see him getting better in the 3rd week, if we take into account his shorter preparation due to injury, and the fact that he looked bad today (I was told long climbs, high altitude is his terrain and Pogi would suffer). This is the exact same reason Pogi faded at the end last year. How is it different logic this year? Last year Pogi lost a minute in stage 5 (Col de Marie Blanque) and had to claw back in the GC with bonus seconds and uphill sprints, only to then pay the price in the 3rd week. I don't see Jonas getting bonuses in sprints, so Pogi can play the waiting game (defensive) this time and be relatively "fresh" in the 3rd week. Visma also doesn't have the riders to put pressure on Pogi this time. UAE have the better team this year.
Totally agree! Sure Ayuso not riding for the team 100% was odd, but overall it didnt really matter and he actually delivered when needed. I am pretty sure UAE will try to hold both Almeida and Ayuso in the top 10 if they are not forced to do more work. Them having such strong GC riders and still a lot of help in the mountains for Pogi is a huge advantage.
What will the other captains do in the second week when they are isolated and Ayuso is attacking early on the climb? If they let him ride he will either get time on them or tadej have a helper up front and they cant defend those attacks and then go with tadej aswell.
@@f00b4r7interesting if Ayuso attacks I would actually wait for tadej to counter, the thought being would tadej really let Ayuso put himself in a situation to win the tour? There is no co-leaders here there is only Tadej
Team UAE rider time spent at the front of Pogacar's group on the Galibier:
M. Soler: 15 sec
A. Yates: 2 min 05 sec
P. Sivakov: 3 min 20 sec
J. Ayuso: 4 min 45 sec
J. Almeida: 8 min
Almeida's ride & leadership on the Galibier today was epic. 👏👏👏
ego and staff of uae doesn't have a strong discipline like it's on visma,sky,us postal
uae will never have that disciplined train montain
adam yates was looking much stronger than almeida in tour of suisse which finished like 17 days ago
adam was supposed to be strongest domestique of pogacar but he quit early
marc soler has a reputation of not listen team orders
almeida and ayuso came as leaders at uae,they got paid to work for pogacar,reason why almeida was angry that adam and ayuso were sly foxes
@@universesays1842 Adam Yates was looking much stronger than almeida in tour de Suisse? When did it look "much stronger"? did you even watch the race? Almeida and Yates were at a very high level in Switzerland, you could even argue that Almeida was the better of the two even tho he finished 2nd.
Adam was not feeling well which was why he went to the front earlier than supposed to give everything that he had and then pulled to the side.
@@universesays1842Pidcock is very difficult to manage I think. Big ego, and not a team player. Basically a talented mountain bike racer. You can see that in last year's Neflix documentary series on the Tour.
@@FridgeProductionsLtd Comments taken out of context. Netflix is about entertainment.
@@user-fo9bv2mm1g I'm in the business of film production and documentary in particular. Believe what you want, but scenes are scenes. Even taken at face value individually, regardless of the edit, they look telling of a rider at odds with team goals.
Thanks for the masterclass! (I thought UAE ride was flawless, but you showed me the light through the mist of the Galibier.) 👏👏👏
Yes, it has all become obvious in the analysis.
Love it great show Chris, I enjoyed your analysis of the race, your the best Bro
I watched my first tour in 1995 (Lance Inspired) and have not missed one since (30 years, 630 stages…what?).
That has morphed into a yearly routine of 3 grand tours, several one week races, top one day races, national and world champs, and of course shows like Horner, Lanterne Rouge, GCN and others.
At some point I realized “strategy” was the allure.
Strange as it sounds I will watch the race and then eagerly await Horners show, so I can understand what it is I just watched. Am I a blockhead, or are there others like me?
As an Oregonian I took note of Chris in the 90’s. Not only his ability but loved his affable approach to the press. The ability to read a race and then communicate it as if reading from a book, why is Chris Horner not the top network person, or a DS?
I watched the crappy 30 minute summaries by espn when lemonde was competing. :)
The industry didn't like his Vuelta victory, my guess.
The bread and water in the UAE camp must be of exceptional quality this year.
Thanks Chris. and Garrett....loving this !
Ayuso needs a reminder what his job is. He is there first to help Pogi win the TDF. He was acting like a prima donna. First Ayuso doesn't climb well enough to win the TDF, but he is worrying about how he might finish in the tour instead of doing his job. I'm glad Almeida called him out in front of everyone. The is pro cycling and he isn't the leader of the team, so he better be working for the real leader of the team and the GC. Visma and Jonas are still dangerous if they improve as the TDF goes on.
The lack of respect comes from the fact Ayuso knows full well what Pogi is doing to be so strong. They all are.
It's every man for himself out there. Even the guys riding as domestiques only do it because that's what they're contracted to do. It's what pays the bills. Yates is the prime example. Ayuso evidently has something else in his contract.
@@cartermoth6447 Oh yeah, and Ayuso is on water and carbs, my arse.
@@chrisko6439 And that's exactly my point. It's why Floyd Landis & Tyler Hamilton didn't respect Lance Armstrong. They wanted a bigger slice of the pie.
At this level either a rider is contracted to ride as a domestique (Yates, or Heras back in the Postal days), or he rides for his own chances, which is clearly what Ayuso is doing.
Mad respect for Pogi for attacking on such a strong headwind and also his descent on a mostly wet road gave me Savoldelli vibes
I bet you and me are the only ones here who know that name... and you even spelled it correctly!
@@graymcmic1419No 🤣🤣🤣 Poalo Savoldelli.
Well let’s see, do you know who “il Falco” was? -> the Falcon…. 😉
The Falcon!
Mostly wet road! Only on the first few corners of the descent, caused by melting snow on the summit. Do try to be accurate with oneself.
@6:44 pretty cool to see the official Tour coverage showing a Strava KOM
Carlos Rodriguez is an extremely good endurance rider he does his best performances when everyone is at high fatigue, just can't handle accelerations and loses time on short climbs. Remco was looking extremely good on this stage he even said in a interview that he considered attacking. I don't think either of them or Vingegaard is gapped even if Ayuso and Almeida ride full gas, so It would still be up to the Pogacar attack to get them off the wheel. Main difference if they ride full gas is Roglic losing more time.
Yeah, Roglic would have lost over a minute to Remco and Carlos.
Unfortunately Carlos has not been to good in time-trials recently, will have to make up that time in week 3.
@@WildRideAdventures24 Probably better for UAE moral if they have 3 in the top 8 than one in the top 4 on a mountain climb.
Good analysis as always. Thanks.
Just one thing: why is everybody saying Vingo will get better and Pogi could get worse? Last time I checked TDF was not a training ground but an exhausting torture that eventually tires people down, not freshens them up. Just my two cents..
Probably because he’s the defending champ from last year, and he’s only down 50 seconds. It’s a hot take, but they could be right, as much as they could be wrong here. It’s still a great start for the tour, so we’re gonna enjoy the first week GC battles as long as we can.
People do find form during the race sometimes. Also, some riders deteriorate less than others during the race, which makes it look like they are improving. Given Jonas' crash and Pogacar's Giro win, some people have the idea that Jonas might be a little undertrained and Pogacar might be a little overtrained, which might predict the scenario you described.
ooo that was spicy fun. Great stage.
Fantastic call Chris, thanks mate . I agree that with the right tactics Pog would be 1.5 to 2 minutes further in front of the GC.
I was impressed how good Remco was on the climb and how bad he was on the descent.
Will be interesting to see how many seconds with his current form he can gain on Friday's TT.
Bet that UAE team meeting was 'spicy' afterwards, cooled a little by the eventual outcome, but Ayuso was not all in for the plan. I heard SBS saying they could be targeting the White for Ayuso, but given Almeida's arm action, that can't be a stated priority (or he missed the briefing) 🤣. Normally, I'd be for Pogacar thinking of micro gains and I think he wanted a TT buffer (given last year...Just in case), but I think putting JV in the pain cave may pay off if he's not allowed to build form by staying within his limit and can't OPTIMALLY build his form during the race .
This version of evenepoel is a lock gor white
I loved this stage and your commentary. So much snow left up there. Are most of these fellas very familiar with the climb and the descent into Valloire? New record set on Galibier as Tadej blew up Loius Mentijes old one.
Yes, Pogacar said he has been training heavily on the Galibier. It's a major, easily accessible climb to train on. Vinegaard has also been training there after Mallorca.
Thank you for sharing sir!
👊🏆🦋🦋🦋🦋🦋🦋🦋🦋🦋🦋🦋🦋🦋🦋🦋🦋
Jonas was catching just as much wind. LOL
Great analogy of the race Chris see you Wednesday night
It was an amazing stage and unfortunately we have to rule out almost the whole peloton for the tour lol. What a great day
seems to me the heat in stages one and two dictated the present closeness of the GC after today. Whenever TP usually has bad days it's usually in severe heat during long climbs after multiple long grinding climbs. Today didn't fit that profile. But since we are all claiming hypotheticals, the heat in stages one and two might explain why TP and UAE didn't try to blow the race up on those two first states. JV said post-race today he had expected to be down by 2 minutes after 4 stages
I'm in awe of Jonas, he was really effing injured, intensive care stuff, and evenpoel and Roglick, amazing/amazing drugs (who cares). Jonas is, however, at a severe disadvantage without kuss, so two big deal things, no Kuss and almost dying 4 months ago, still, it might be interesting soon. Pogacar got most of his time today on the descent, not the climb, mountain top finishes will tell the tail, hopefully
But as we saw in La Giro Pogacar can win those too. However Vinegaard has the build to win in those environments. Interesting racing ahead.
21:20 I totally agree the Tour won’t be boring
Fantastic stage on day 4, going from Italy to France over the alps, and already seeing the field being blown up and the favorites racing at their max limits to try win the Tour and
stay in contention. Finally we're seeing all the top 4 guys putting it out there in the same race!
Looking forward to watching... as usual 👍🦋👊
🧸🦋👊
Pog was great! I liked Almeida calling out Ayuso, get your ass up here and work. Does look like a clarification session may be in order
for UAE. Maybe being a worker bee for Pog is just not enough fun for a couple of those guys. Thanks, Chris! Btw, I recently enjoyed your
vid from a while back on cleaning a bike, simple and helpful.
Remember before the Tour there was a lot of talk about Almeida maybe doing his own thing and not working for Pog! But in reality it looks like Almeida is the leader that Pog has been missing. You’re right saying he needed to call Ayuso out.
@@J-cz7yvayuso is selfish
@@J-cz7yv Almeida already showed his dedication in Tour de Suisse. He can actually win that.
What's funny is that Almeida used to be a bit like Ayuso...didn't want to work for Remco during the Giro in 2021
@@Peakabike Thats true... but in that Giro Almeida was supposed to be QST numer one rider because Remco was still recovering from his crah at Lombardia... that's why he was so upset when he was told to work for Remco. It was a mistake from the team as we saw how good Almeida was at the third week of the Giro riding along with the best GC contenders.
Didn't expect this analyse. A little surprise in a positive way. I agree with the Pogacar his top legs. I also agree with the opinion about how the UAE team worked: too much as individuals, not as a team.
As a team surely except for Ayuso and Yates, but that was fully expected.
I don't know if it's team tactics or personal gc ambition but Ayuso was not giving 100%. He was in 15 position when Almeida was pulling, and you can see that he was upset and looking Ayuso for a turn.
Thanks, Chris
As usual the best post summary of any utuber...the stunning stage is now cemented into my memory....😅
did you hear Tadejs interview? the headwind was so strong he had to wait til 800 meters.. best 45 sec fuck up so far. Ayuso needs to check his ego
it's not his ego, he is being smart- maybe too smart for his own good. definitely dont like it!
I’m sure he didn’t if he did he wouldn’t say what he is saying but he’s telling the truth about ayuso though who’s playing possum with his teammates 😂
I heard the interview . And still stand behind what I said 100%. Pogi believes that if he attacked into the head wind he wouldn’t get away. Because the other would work together. I explained in the video why they wouldn’t have worked together. The head wind didn’t seem to help Tom, Egan, Simon, mas, Vlasov stay on the wheel and Riglic was swinging to be there while Almeida and Ayuso were in the front. I have never attacked until my teammates have finished their sprint. Both Ayuso and Almeida had something more left to give and they didn’t use that up. If they had we may have seen every one blow up and Pogi only has to continue the pace to the top solo. While the other GC rider figure out who will pull because for sure it wasn’t going to Roglic at that moment. 🤔🦋👍
Pogi was also flawless in the descent - apparently it was his training ground, so he knew the descent well. One thing, I think is worth mentioning: compared to 2022 UAE don’t need to attack that much, but rather control - now that they have a gap. Also, while Remco could potentially take time into Pogi on the (flat) TT, it is likely that Jonas will lose time. I guess, we will see, but if I was Visma LAB, I would be a lot more worried than what the PR talk says.
@@ChrisHornerCycling You seem to forget one thing: Pog wasn't (and still isn't) 100% sure he can firmly drop Vingegaard. Going all-out from further could have been suicidal or at least could have resultated in Vingegaard reeling Pog back in, so all that work would have been for nothing. Now Pogacar played it safe, i.e. wait until the last K so he knew he could go all out, take the bonus seconds and who knows, with some daylight between him and other riders, continue downhill. That's exactly what he did, and finishing solo is probably already more than he hoped for.
Much as I love chris' strategy analysis always, i have to disagree UAE messed up, cos their ultimate and only rival is rightfully JV. None of the other GC contenders comes close to Pogacar in form or power. Once they saw JV isolated and riding without teammate support, thats gonna be the best time to attack and put time. Also pogacar said in a post race interview that he had been training on Galibier for many times and is very familiar, thus the scary fast descent he made to put in even more time after the climb. Imho this was a good plan by UAE to close the door on JV
Even if none of the other GC contenders come close, you have to finish the job where it can be finished. They didn't finish Roglic so that's one more to keep an eye on. UAE were superb but will that still be the case in 2 weeks? Will Roglic improve (comparatively) to Pogacar in 2 weeks?
Still very early in the race. Perhaps Jonas gets stronger as the tour goes on and cracks Pog to gain minutes in the latter mountain stages. They should also watch out for Evenepoel. When his legs are good, no other gc contender has the power that can match him in the time trial stages, especially if it's relatively flat.
Jonas can’t be expected to beat Tadej and his whole team without any riders from Visma pulling for him. Wout is riding at the back of the Peleton.
even if ayuso, almeida, a.yates were to pull full gas on the galibier and pogacar attacks 2 or 3km from top, there was no way to drop jonas, since pogacar's attacks would have distanced remco and roglic, but Jonas is the better climber he would have enough distance to recover if its on a longer climb. So I think UaE did a good job except for ayuso who held back. TP is on form but JV should not be underestimated he fought back well, if RE caught up with JV earlier probably they would have brought down the damage to 20-30 sec.
I haven't realized how big Nils Politt is.
I find it amusing that Tadej being one year older and most probably fitter and overall better is not in the conversation. I get the guy won his first Tours being 21 and 22 or whatever but he’s certainly not declining. On the contrary, he’s had another year with top professionals to get physically and technically better and, on top of that, had an incident free run-in into TdF 24. Yes, he has the Giro in his legs but, frankly, he wasn’t pushed at all there (only by himself).
People act like Vinegaard is clearly the better GC rider in a long tour just baffles me. Sure Vinegaard won the last two tours, but one was for 100% because he had the way better team and the second Pogacar was coming back from an injury. So far Pogacar is dominating the cycling world this year and so far no one seems be able to stop him. This guy is on his way to be the best rider in history and he is only 25!
@@f00b4r7 well, depends on what constitutes a great GC rider. If it’s no weakness, being one of the best climbers in the world, great to excellent TT and being focused and maximally efficient with great energy management throughout all three weeks rain or shine (a decent to great team around is a given) - Jonas is exactly all of it. Tadej is certainly not robotic and 100% tactical. I hope he can, however, beat Jonas even with his swashbuckling style.
I don’t really care, personally. I like watching Pog do what he does and prefer watching him in monuments, honestly. So whatever floats his boat.
holy moly! I clicked on your video ramdomly, I looked at you and I thought you looked awfully familiar... then I read the name of the channel and... holy moly is Chris F***ing Horner!!!! I'm so glad i'm here now :D
Great points, Chris. UAE not perfect but they still looked impressive... thanks in large part to Almeida. Almeida looked like a field general leading the charge, energizing and admonishing people where needed.
Here is a scenario. Jonas isnt quite in top form yet so Poggy goes nuts when possible to drop him bigtime, it will work or by week 3 Poggy is exhausted after Giro and Jonas rides into form
Jonas Vingegaard did say he expected to be 2 minutes behind at this point. But with Juan Ayuso playing games might have helped Jonas Vingegaard on Col du Galibier keeping it down to 7 seconds (if I remember correctly). The chasers group putting Vingegaard to the sword 🗡️ is what really helped Tadej Pogačar. But I think you're wrong. By hurting Vingegaard instead of working to close the gap to Pogačar. That says to me they are racing for 2nd.
Someone at work, told me pogi cut of more than a minut on the KOM, thou they had a headwind, crazy speeds.
22km/h on the climb.
@@FridgeProductionsLtd reminds me, I should buy My mum an ebike 😉
Are you as surprised with Remco as I am? He's doing better than he has in the past in the high altitudes.
After all most of these riders are still late teenagers -- you don't expect guys in their early 20s, athletic, full of power and hormone... to race a race with a cool mind and cold heart, unmoved, as like someone who is in 30s or 40... However isn't this blunt nucklehead-ness making such a race fun to watch ??? I think Pogacar is more interested in testing Jonnas, to see if he's a match. After all the last 2 encounters he's lost. Now he's in good shape and I bet the biggest wondering in his mind is to see if Jonnas is in good shape, and how good that is. The other riders they watched Giro and probably raced it and they know well you just can't follow Pogacar on such a climb. His teamates probably have a consensus that Pogi doesn't need them and if they attack together then Pogi can't get too much of benefits as in time, and the other riders severely burnt out all for nothing.
Also there's a clear pattern emerged that 1. Pogi's strategy seems to be only to attack on the steepest climb where he can magnify the time gained to the most, with full force. With the same matches burned, this is the way to maximize the time gained. 2. To gain a significant amount of time in the very early stages of races, so he have more room to "not react" in the later stages.
Don't forget how he lost the race -- I don't remember exactly which year, but it's the day that the other leading group riders working together, each of them attack once, pogi follows, then another one attack, pogi follows, for a several around, only in this way that he could be worn down so that in the final climb he blows up. In this case it's because the time is so close that he has to react to each of them, because if any of them succeed, he lose the race. But for the other riders, then can only win only if Pogacar is pulled down from the throne. Currently this seems the only effective way to beat Pogi in such a race, and Pogacar himself knows it. So now we get what we see. It's better to use his superior fitness to have a big time lead in the early stages, than to conserve for the later. In this way he prevents the potential "wear down by the group" situation in which he lost, and probably would shut some of other attempts down before it's even happening.
I think when your fitness level are higher than just a margin over your rivals, the strategy changes. The relationship between you and your team mates, you and other riders changes... This could be the better play given current situation.
I’m very surprised by Jonas, he outperformed. Think he was at the limit to damage control though, the TT will be interesting. Pogi is the guy to beat for sure with the strength of UAE
I think we just saw the defining moment for the whole TDF. It's still a team race. The fact that UAE had so many riders on that last climb speaks volumes compared to Visma riders dropping all the way back on other sections. Does it matter that UAE didn't have perfect climbing tactics? I don't think so now. The only thing that will change my mind is if the other stages favor Visma capabilities, but it looks like if you compare rider to rider 1 through 8, Emirates has the advantage in at least 5. I don't see any other team having more than 2 top-level riders.
Visma is not any where near what they were, and as good as he is, Jonas is not superhuman. He can't do it alone.
Good call on the 'follow your domestiques' and earlier launch tactics, but I question why it's better to have the domestiques work and peel off ONE AT A TIME - ?? By sharing duties like two guys in a break (vs a single rider), _and especially with a diesel like Almeida,_ you can get so much more distance-at-speed out of your worker bees.
Why the hell was Vingegaard choosing a single drive in front on a stage where you need mountain gears as well as the largest possible gears on the downhill and the flats??
hes behind jonas because he waited until jonas was out of saddle on an effort. If you watch it. Was actually great timing and jonas reacted as good as possible considering he was about to get back into saddle when Tadej jumped. Remco looked pretty damn good he could end up being the one to grow into tour as jonas is such a game rider but like tadje last year without that base of training you just dont grow into tour there isnt recovery time sufficient to get benefits as you know. Its the best training for Olympics' thought which is MVDP goal and reason why he pushed ti today I think this is genuinely training for gold medal in Paris for him. Lead-out duties on sprint stages and likely thrive on gravel stage.
Pollit was incredible hes been the rouleur that can ride hills and ITT that UAE have needed last few years. Its something jumbo have been great at getting rouleurs as doms in tour they are swiss army knifes of cycling. Enjoy tomorrow !!! Ayuso definitely needs to fall in line. Doubt jonas grows into tour he doesnt have the training base withoutthat you fade in 3rdweek. Remco can be a threat esepcially with ITTs. Without hat base training you cant get benefits from first two weeks historically
We will see about that! Vingegaard has
Prepared better than you think!
yes Pog wanted to do the surprise attack from behind rather than telegraphing.. "hey Jonas.. im going to attack in 3-2-1."
One thing I don't get (never followed cycling closely). Why is it an advantage to have you teamates in the break? Isnt Vinedergard getting the same toe Pogaçar is when he follows theme up the mountain? In the end it stays Pogaçar vs Vinegard anyway.
A couple reasons. A team mate up ahead can slow down and recover before the peloton gets to them (if they do it right) and thus will be fresher to help tow their leader if he has problems. Also he can give him water or gels or even his bike if there is a problem. Also there is the physiological advantage of having a teammate there supporting you (for some riders this seems to actually have an affect). Having options is always good. A great example of doing this well is Visma sending a big guy like Wout ahead so that he can get over a big mountain with the break at a slower pace before the peloton gets there and then he can pull in the valley. If Wout is in the peloton he most likely gets dropped (well not always cause the man can be a freaken animal).
THE BEST analysis!
Good dissection man. No wonder Jonas was still so confident at the end of the stage in his interview.
Is he though? Sounds like PR to me …
@@erichgerber251 Let's wait and see.
When you've got that much power, you don't need a plan
How can you rank Wout ahead of MVdP? MVdP always beats him in every race they go head to head their entire career.
He’s a wout guy don’t you know that
Lol...about that "entire career" thing...I do not know really, perhaps you can look more into it
Great question. I like them both but MVDP won more races in every discipline and missing only green jersey from Tour, which Wout got. For Chris nothing else matters but Tour :D
MvdP is the best ever classics racer, and it shows by the number of wins vs. the number of starts in a race. WvA is almost the opposite, i.e. always in the top 10 (or better: always 2nd, it seems), but he has done things in the Tour that MvdP for some reason will never be capable off: winning mountain stages, mass sprints and time trials.
Chris, is there any way we could hear you live commentate during stages? Would be amazing to get your perspective as it happens!
Love it . Ayuso making it entertaining in the UAE team, surprised Adam blew up early but maybe he is saving himself too
Mathieu always has a plan. So, him being in that 17 man group, must be training. For one of the next stages or the Olympic road race. To find out how he was doing in a certain sort of climbing. And he was climbing not all that bad!
He was climbing bad, come on. A good WvA, or in this case, someone like Lazkano (just to name some riders with same kind of body / weight),... those are climbing twice as good.
@@l.d.t.6327 Wout will always climb twice, if not three times as good as Mathieu. Remember Wout winning a mountain stage in the TdF? The Ventoux if I'm not mistaken. (Stage 11 TdF 2021, indeed over the Ventoux)
Within his capabilities, Mathieu was doing good, especially on the long not very steep first climb to Sestriere. He rode a steady pace, took turns at the front regularly.
Not bad for a non-climber.
Johan Bruyneel pointed out today that unfortunately there is some drama in the team with Jaun Auyuso. One of the many problems that UAE has is that there are a lot of leaders that are being trusted to be domestiques. Conversely Visma’s problem is that while Jonas is better than expected, the team is not there for him. I would argue that a key element to Jonas’s winning was the strength of the team.
Always has been the key element
I would agree with that. Except I would say the key element for Visma was letting go of Roglic to save a few bucks 🦋👊🤪💵
@@ChrisHornerCycling I was disappointed with Jorgenson today. I know you did explain a little the background to this but I thought he'd have been better despite having to do work yesterday and didn't understand why Visma were ever on the front today though when they didn't have to be.
@@ChrisHornerCycling agreed!
@@ChrisHornerCycling wait a minute. At the end of the Tour last year you were advocating for Roglic to leave Visma if he ever wanted to win the tour. You said you wanted to have a 3 horse GC race.
Visma didn’t try to save a few bucks. It was clear after the Vuelta Roglic wanted to leave. So it was mutually beneficial for both that he checked out!
Great commentary. I think Ayuso was holding back because he has his own objectives. It’s reminiscent of LeMond and Hinault or Armstrong and Contador. Tadej was a monster on the descent, just amazing. It’s not over by a long shot. Grand tour riders create more drama than Cheerleaders vs Pom Pom girls.
His own objectives for me 😂😂😂😂he’s playing possum but almeida will straighten him or else he will get his ass whooped 😂😂😂
Ayuso is a small egoistic mouse that forgot why is paid. In rank of first 20. UAE would made much better if here would be Maika instead of Ayuso.
Van der Poel was there to get some practice in for the Olympics.
I'm quite new at this, but comparing last year, where was Jonas team through this climb? IMO it was pretty much one sided, 1vs4 and Jonas was left pretty much on his own, compared to last year when he had at least one or two of his teammates for this sort of climbs
I reckon MvdP was just trying to get a head start on the climb, Pogačar also has to worry about losing time in the TTs
To whom? He will lose some to Remco in the first TT for sure but don't expect some spectacular loses. And then Remco will turn into complete shit the third week, so doesn't matter anyway.
Why should Pogacar lose time on the TTs? Yes Evenepoel is great and TT and probably he has an advantage there on tadej. But Tadej is one of the best TT riders aswell and he is looking in the best form he ever was.
@@tonyg3091 Yes I expect Evenepoel will be on the pedals for the TT - he wants stage wins and is reigning TT WC and yes the arduous length of the TdF is a challenge for him but he is closer than I was expecting at this stage. Also Vingegaard put 1'38" on Pogačar in last year's TdF single TT so Pogačar shouldn't feel safe with his current GC margin.
@@f00b4r7 I thought that last year but Vingegaard put 1'38" on Pogačar in last year's TdF single TT and this year there are two TTs plus Evenepoel will be there going for the TT stage wins. I expect Pogačar to do better this year as evidenced by his Giro TT stage win over Ganna but Pogačar shouldn't feel safe with his current GC margin.
@@thisandthatandotherthingshence Pog's blast on Stage 4.
I think they will stay fairly evenly matched, JV may find form over the 3 and TP may loose form because of massive early season work , you can’t go all yr in top 5 form . So hopefully for us a arm chair worriers it works into am interesting Tour . Was it the one by that kept him in speed on the down side ? He’s got no problem sticking to TP up hill so far. And will PR and RE even factor ?
"You wanna have guys blowin out all over the place, you wanna blow your teammates of the front one at a time. With Ayuso blowin, with Sivakov blowin, with Almeida blowin, and Adamn Yates the last guy drilling it" idk why but that sequence made me laugh out loud.
Tadej has it in the bag minus any crashes. Dude is a once in a lifetime type of rider
Agreed, but JV and Visma have out-foxed him two years in a row, so we'll see.
As Jonas Vingegaard said in an interview, his time will come. The steeper climbs will come and the last week is brutal. I'd love to see Pogi win though, I don't like Vingegaard at all.
Do not underestimate remco. He's riding smart and hard@@chrisko6439
@@chrisko6439 I really doubt Vingegaard will be stronger then Tadej in the last week after coming back from such an injury. On top Pogacar has maybe the best GC team ever in the tour, so even if he has a bad day there will be plenty of help. I think both vingegaard and evenepoel will be close to pogacar on most mountain stages, but both of them will have atleast one weak day and because they dont have enough help, they will lose huge amount of time.
@@adamhindle9215much easier to outfox another rider rider when you have a better team and are the stronger rider, this year both of those go Pogi’s way. It’s possible that Jonas gets stronger, but given his injuries and some difficult early stages I highly doubt that will happen.
RedBull team seem to be lacking wings. Vlasov and Hindley nowhere, Roglic clung on by the skin of his teeth
@chris MVDP considers this a training day. Some block training of 300-320 watts.
Pogi is a monster. Jonas is amazing all things considered but he does not have the talent of tdf team UAE supporting him. Only knucklehead tactics will even this up as was partially seen today.
Roglic needed the american flying eagle dragging him up the mountain as much as Jonas needed him. It is funny how clear it is that domestique's really make the difference. These top riders are very strong but domestiques really relax how much strength you need each day. The more I learn about cycling the more I appreciate team tactics.
please stop with the flying eagle. He has been a flying duck this entire season
@@counselor5286Ducks are better flyers than eagles. They’re shockingly fast, and migrate 1000s of miles.
@@counselor5286 the name is just way too funny to stop and it was more of a historical point that Kuss was very helpful to Primos and Jonas when he had the form. More generally though having the support helps when the going gets rough -- in that is makes it less rough.
@@TheGotoGeekkudos.
@goatbloat8233 yes I concur funny name.
In the (danish) postrace-interview, JV said, they had expected to be ~2 minutes down at this point of time, so all in all he is better off than expected (IF you take this at face value...). He looked very calm and collected, and a small confident smile. To be this confident and composed right after a 'loss' and clearly showing hes playing the long game, shows something about his mindset!
I'm a JV fan, but i'm also a TP fan, for very different reasons. TP raw power and talent, JV hardworking and mindset! They are both masters at playing to their strengths!
Also, today I became a Carlos Rodrigues fan! Spectacular ride from him today! Remco said he almost crashed out at start of the descent on Galibier, so he throttled back slightly! He'll be VERY interesting on fridays TT!
This was kinda demolition exhibition by UAE. The tour pitched GC quite early this year. Its no joy for the sprinters
Jonas!❤ Admirable.,!👏👏❤️👏
Chris knows what he is saying more than anyone here ...yes indeed UAE is more power but no plan, let's see this coming 2 weeks, it's just the 4th day of 3 weeks....