The Truth About Games in Hand
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- čas přidán 12. 06. 2024
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Would you rather have points on the board, or games-in-hand? We’ve all been there, when looking at the league table and seeing our club has a game-in-hand and mentally banking the three points.
But just how valuable are games-in-hand? How often has a team with games-in-hand finished higher than the teams around them?
Written by Nick Miller and Andy Jones, illustrated by Philippe Fenner.
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#Fixtures #GamesInHand #PremierLeague - Sport
Anxiously watching this as an Arsenal fan
Same here
3 games in hand, 2 against Chelsea & Tottenham right?
@@dalinvarghese and the other is liverpool
The upside for you guys is that Man Utd still have to play City, Liverpool, Chelsea and Spurs in the next few weeks
Watching this as a Barça fan
that period of handpainted backgrounds was absolutely stellar, would love for Tifo to explore this style more
I think it's important to note how extremely difficult it is to drop in the table with games in hand. Since the table standings are determined by point total, a team with games in hand cannot drop with a loss since the worst case scenario is that you stay put. I think a better analysis could have emphasized a teams standing based on points per game while that team had the games in hand, treating that as their "expected position", then measuring their final place in the table against that expectation. In this case, I would assume that teams who stayed put and some teams who only gain one spot in the table would have been considered to have done poorly with those games in hand.
I was thinking exactly the same; this is the first time I've ever watched a Tifo video and thought, "hmmm... this analysis is a bit silly"
From this video, i got more of a discussion of the psychological impact of a team having too many games in hand. I don't think they were trying to use statistics to analyze and draw any direct conclusion towards any team's projected final league position.
What about if you drop because of goal difference?
Exactly! It seems kind of obvious that you will be higher after having played your games than you were when you hadn't. They really should have assumed that every game in hand would have given the average amount of points that the team had gotten per game in that given season in order to make a somewhat interesting comparison (obviously there's issues with this approach too, but it should give a better picture IMO)
unless you play the team under you and lose to them
The expression "a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush" fits this perfectly and dates back to medieval times. It's always better to have stuff locked in and secure.
Giggidy
@@TubeYou138 I need jesus
Not always, if I offered you 100 bucks or a 1% strange in a fortune 500 co, rich world most people want? As that last line states, depends on who you & opposition are, & how far behind you are
The one bit of analysis I would have loved to have seen is who are the games in hand against? Top teams? Average? Mixed etc. DO those teams who do well have games in hand against lesser quality opposition or out of form sides? Do those who do badly from them have games against stronger sides or side in form?
i think that's what the last two examples showed. United as a strong team shows the example of playing against lower quality opposition and southampton being out of the relegation zone only by goal difference playing against a lot of teams from top half shows that it doesn't really matter who the games are against, just who the team playing is.
The Southampton example kinda covered that. Having to play 7 of the top 9.
You should do a vid on bodø/glimt. What a team
Agreed
Those thumbnails... 👏👏👏. I don't even know what to say, i feel like i already used every compliment possible for this channel. You guys are otherworldly, thanks for developing my interest in football, i didn't really care before.
Man this guys are top notch, was one of the very first 10 people to subscribe to their channel when they started, they made me love the off the field events of the beautiful game and they made me dreaming of becoming a well rounded super agent in the near future, hats off to them no other channel beats them once it comes to this I'm always in awe of them especially the voice
What is 'otherwordly'?
@@kindnessallison8669 you joined youtube a year ago. these guys have been around for much longer than that
@@DanceySteveYNWA is a thing that happens when you forget a word. Fixed, thanks for the reminder.
@@GustavoSilva-ny8jc oh, OK cool.
My mind just changed about games in hand after I just lost a title on FM having four games in hand and only won one of them
Seems momentum is key , if you're winning it can be a positive effect but losing it can be negative
Cheers Geoff
You're joking
They & tiredness
I am sincerely curious about that 99/00 United team. They made what was then the controversial decision to not participate in the FA Cup, so I wonder if United had a benefit to not having to worry about midweek FA Cup ties.
True.. very true..people forget that highly controversial withdrawal..
Am I right in thinking they withdrew because they had the club World Cup?
@@YT-ru4mr yes, SAF didn't want to withdraw but the FA convinced him to do so to concentrate on the Club World Cup as they thought it would increase England's chances of winning the 2006 World Cup hosting bid.
@@arthurqampi3239 ironically Germany got the 2006 WC, ironic because Bayern Munich were second in line to go to the tournament. United also suggested playing FA Cup games with a second string team (would have been the 4th round only as it turned out as United played Middlesbrough in a catch up game on 5th round day)
FA almost sealed their own trophies fate with that move, the FA cup never really recovered after that imo.
My team Inter had 5 games in 2 weeks and it was not good. Lost the Derby against Milan, despite dominating it for 70 min. Beat AS Roma in the Coppa Italia 1/4 2:0. Draw against title rivals Napoli away 1:1. Lost at home in the CL against Liverpool, in a game where i still don´t understand why we did not score. After that also Sassuolo beat us 0:2 at home..... 1 win 1 draw 3 games lost.
it depends on the team, manager, players, backroom team. so many variables go into 'games in hand'. the mentality of the teams involved is a huge factor. I don't think this topic can be settled in any way. nice discussions to be had though.
Basically what happened to Rotheram last season. Feel like they could’ve stayed up if not for having to play catch-up.
I've been a Coventry City fan for the best part of 30 years and barely ever remember us winning a game in hand. Thankfully before this season we rarely had to play catch up on our fixtures, with very few cancellations due to the weather and often not getting far enough in any cup competition to require fixtures to be rescheduled either.
While it is interesting to explore some of these historical examples, the impact of games in hand is likely radically different in the modern era. The increased physical intensity of games makes them incomparable to thirty years ago. Similarly, massive advances in sports science and recovery work have added huge value to days off, as have huge developments in tactical complexity and specific match preparation. The way that teams and players utilise their days between games is so superior to the way that it was even ten years ago, that the impact of variably congested schedules is almost certainly very different too.
There's extra context to that QPR season, after winning only 1 of the first 11 games Gerry Francis was replaced by Ray Wilkins and there was a general considerable improvement for the rest of the season.
What matters is when these games are played, when you are in good form or bad. Like Aston Villa last season, they were in good form at the start but games were delayed and when got to play them Grealish was injured their form was down and they ended up finishing much lower than they expected in first half of season
Also each GIH should more accurately be weighted against your rivals results against that team, not your result, or lack there of on the same day.
e.g. missed game's against Liverpool, Chelsea and Man City on matchday 22 may leave you 4 points off your rivals and they'll say, "but your GIH are against Liverpool City and Chelsea", but that means little if the reason why the points gap is small is because they haven't played those teams either and lost points in games they should've won.
All this to say, I worry for Man U in the top 4 race because given the teams they've played in the second round of fixtures, they don't have the "points on the board" that they should.
Cambridge united fan here, last season we got promoted from league 2, we were in the top 3 for most of the season however teams below us always had games in hand, and we were always in danger if they won their games in hand we would have been out of promotion, however they couldn't convert them into points and we went up as runners up. showed me its the points is what counts!
Watching this as an inter fan after the sassuolo game
In recent times Sunderland in League One has had games in hand and blew them leading to no momentum going into play-offs. This season they have played more games than say Wigan and have blown those games when Wigan wasn't playing. It really does depend on if you have a team of players who can handle expectation.
Watching this as a Spurs fan thinking "let me just quickly give ourselves 9 points and consider us in a European spot"
Same 😬
Arc Bournemouth were due to host Forest in February,but due to storm damage the game was called off,the rescheduled game was a crucial one for both teams.
We have to keep in mind the reason why those teams have games in-hand. If they're good enough to keep advancing through cups, then they're probably good enough to win those league matches.
Great video. I do recall Arsenal having a good number of games in hand on Man United by February in 1998 when they won the double
Great video. Please make a video about Bodø-Glimt I'm struggling to understand how they are able to replace halve their team a third time in 18 months and still go on and smash Celtic.
This type of content is what I subscribed for back in the uMaxit days
Imagine if that week Luton Town had was happening now with social media and you were a fan. That’s physically exhausting
If Liverpool win their game in hand they will be 3 points always from city and they manage to beat city at the Etihad. Liverpool have a really good chance to catch up against city
Keep dreaming
I was looking at this yesterday as well. Liverpool will be playing 2-3 games more than City until they meet in April. And Liverpool will be playing relatively tougher opposition sides between that time as well. Will Liverpool or City be winning all those games until they meet? Only time will tell
@@shauryasaxena13 That and Liverpool's last three games of the season are all very tough, with Tottenham (H), Southampton (A) and Wolves (H). Compared with Man City's fixtures against Newcastle(H), West Ham (A) and Aston Villa (H) where you'd say West Ham Away is the only genuinely tough assignment.
Having games in hand is quite common here in Brazil because our callendar is bonkers
It has a negative effect specially in teams with a limited squad, with lots of injuries happening in certain moments of the competitions
I hope as a Liverpool fan we win on Wednesday, if we do then the title race is truly back on.
Eww
We start sweating city a bit more and have to pay more attention to the prem again.
@@adammm321 I don't get, what's the eww for?
@@Eltuong yeah mate, and that's why I love klopp's philosophy of taking it game by game
@@kindnessallison8669 Scousers 🤣 Was only joking pal, should be a good title race
Anxiously watching this as liverpool fan
I recall in 1999/2000 while Man United were away for the World Club Cup, the rest of the challenging teams failed to capitalise. A video about that period when Man Utd almost withdrew from the FA Cup would be an interesting Tifo topic
Looking at those examples, you guys should do analysis whether better weather on springs onward is the reason those teams are improving their form in those games
Surely comparing the position of the team with games in hand to after the games on hand have been played is not a good measure, you obviously can't lose points so you can really only go up. The only negative that can really happen is reducing goal difference.
It's interesting noting that American sports count a game in hand as half a win in terms of estimating the top of the table.
🤔 In which sports? Definitely not baseball, basketball or American "rugby"!
@@charlesray9674 hockey
@@brianhinojosa9940 I believed that had stopped doing that, especially because of covid. I remember them listing teams by points percentage but that doesn't take into consideration that teams get a point in overtime losses making OT games worth more than games ending in regulation: 3 points in overtime or shootouts (2 for OT/SO wins and 1 for losing) versus 2 points for a regulation win and none for losing.
I haven't been following hockey since the pandemic.
hello boreham wood. they had like 5 games in hand against stockport county at one point and would be like 4 points clear if they won em all.. so far they've lost one and drawn one though. hope that run continues badly for them (as a county fan!) but it is scary looking at another team with so many points still play left for them....
Overall, I've always said i'd rather have games in hand like Burnley's situation you've potential to get out of the relegation zone, also depends on who you are playing and how close to the end of the season it is. The biggest advantage i see is if a team is mid table and going up or down in a position not that much and are safe they probably only give 80% but if you're fighting for top 4 finish or a relegation battle you are going be giving 100% and then some! So my final point is, i would hate to have the points on the board and nervously waiting for results to go your way and there's nothing you can do about it and can that can potentially effect your remaining games.
Like Brentford
I thought this was pretty obvious Idk how you stretched it into a video but I did enjoy hearing the examples
A few weeks ago Luton came close to matching the games in hand record again due to a COVID outbreak.
Cue someone in 2023 turning up with an xPFGIH stat, expected points from games in hand.
WOOOOW, it could be good or it could be bad, what a takeaway!!!!!
Well, if you are near the top and with some momentum it is positive but if you are at the bottom or without momentum it is more pressure.
I find the games behind system used in American sports to be a little better to follow but that's only viable in sports where there are either no draws or draws are worth half a win. So if 1 team has 20 wins and another has 19 but a game in hand the second team is said to be half a game behind.
So, 2 thirds of a game behind?
And this very true... For example the NBA.. They dont have draws per se, but they do have division series for the season.. even if two team has the same win columns, they will still look at the head to head (in this case is head to head to head case) for the tie breaker..
Patrick Stump, that's how it normally works. If team A won 5 and lost 1, team B 4-2 and team C is 3-2, team B is a full game behind team A while team C is 1and a half behind team A and a half a game behind team C.
(Team 1 wins - Team 2 wins) + (Team 2 loses - Team 1 loses) ÷ 2 = the games ahead (if you're the higher position, games back if you're lower).
Most American sports ranked their teams by winning percentage (points in ice hockey).
Team A 6-2 .750
Team B 3-1 .750 (1 GB)
Team C 5-2 .714 (0.5 GB)
Team B is one game back of Team A, but is actually a half game back of Team C!
(B wins3- C wins5 = (-2) + C lost 2- B lost1 = 1; (-2)+1 =(-1)÷2 =(-0.5)
@@charlesray9674 This is inscrutable
@@emilyjoh Not really. If you look at it as how many games you'll have to win to catch up (and also games your opponents to lose). In baseball, basketball and hockey, it's normal for teams to have played different amount of games during the week with some teams playing more than the others. This is basically how you can gage a teams performance with uneven games played.
And you can calculate how many games it take to clinch your league or division (aka "magic number") or elimination.
I read the title and thought about spurs not taking advantage of theirs recently and then producing an excellent win nobody expected on the weekend. Which overall is very spurs.
burnley are doing really well tbf. weghorst has made an immediate impact.
I hope they manage to stay up
Never knew about the Simod Cup
Surely it also depends who they are against
Better to have games in hand against mid table clubs with nothing to fight for rather than teams still fighting
Its a weird one. Think the last point of who has the games in hand and also what your rivals do around you. Look at Arsenal with their games in hand, depending on for example west ham, man utd and even wolves to drop points while you still have to make sure you secure yours 🤷🏽♂️ tough!
When both teams bank on the 3 points, and their rivals bank on them dropping points, things get spicy my boy
Could we not compare av points per game pre games in hand with av PPG in the period post to see how much they are worth.
They did this in the video? Haha
@@joehill2105 not as a whole
They say many times 'x number of teams finished in a higher position after all games had been played'. Mmmkay
But the question in the title is never answered apart for a few specific clubs.
I think teams with say 2 or 3 games in hand, barring them being the worst in the division possibly, should always gain points on those ahead of them, however I don't think not finishing lower is the benchmark, but you're many points they actually gain on where they expect to be against the teams they are playing in those games in hand which isn't as easy to quantify as finishing higher or lower depends on the gaps to teams above and below as well as their performance in the games they have remaining. Maybe analysis splitting the teams into teams chasing something (titles, European places, promotion places, playoffs spots), those with nothing to play for (or long shots at the former), and those chasing survival would have been more useful to see, and thinking about it points per game is probably more of a measure than whether you gain or lose places, or stay the same, as that varies from team to team and season to season for the clubs involved.
Luton Town didn’t compete in the Mercentile Credit Trophy
Nor is it pronounced 'mer-sen-teel'
It’s like going 2nd in a penalty shootout. The pressures on you to catch up
THANKS
I'd also like to know as to why did QPR and Pool have those games in hand. For Burnley its understandable due to Covid delays, but for the others?
Yes but what about the difference in whether or not these teams played a lot of football in that time, such as extended runs in competitions. Definitely going to be a contributing factor to the outcome. Burnley had a lot of time off football.
I'd rather have the points on the board than the games in hand but if you have the games in hand then you have to use it as motivation to get those theoretical points.
It is more psychologically advantageous when the teams you are chasing (the ones without games in hand) are dropping points. If they are on a perfect streak, that adds pressure on you.
Is there a tifo football music playlist or something
How long you hold this video in draft?
I wouldn't worry about Burnley games in hand but like a few others they be playing a lot of football in a short space of time. Going to be a lot of knocks, niggles and tired bodies. Makes this season very unpredictable
Thumbnail 🔥
Spurs 🤝 Arsenal
Nervously looking at games in hand, hoping to clinch top 4 at the other's expense
im italian so i actually used to count our team as having 1 point more per game in hand, a 0-0 draw
As a Spurs fan, we were few points behind Arsenal with 3 games in hand. Now we're on same number of games but tied on points after losing 3 games in a row. It's better to keep pace with your rivals than have games in hand.
No you’re 3 points behind us mate
ARS P3 in May then you're telling me!
Legends
Stellar thumbnail
I like the closing statement, "How useful are games in hand? Well, it depends on who has them."
Let's wait and see how those who still have them turn out.
was kind of expecting a more statistical analysis of the actual point value of a game yet to be played. Obviously guaranteed points already on the board are better than the chance of points in the future
Same, it would be interesting to know the avg points teams get when they have games in hand(say at least 2) compared to when they don't. Using one or two specific examples doesn't tell us anything of substance, and neither does repeating old clichés.
Very big pressure on tottenham
This is seriously missing a mention of Tottenham, who were 7th with 3 in hand, and 8th after playing those three games.
Am an Arsenal fan but this isn't true. They still have 3 games in hand on the 4th & 5th placed teams.
Making Man City 2013-14 league triumph all that impressive
Tottenham are victims of this situation...
We had 3 matches of which 4 points could have placed us above Arsenal to Top 4... (Unfortunately we lost against Wolves, Saints and Chelsea leaving us far behind to 8th)
Any game that isn't already won is 0 points until you win it.
Big if true.
Watching this after Burnley beat Tottenham who both have very different “game in hand” scenarios.
"Saturday-Monday-Wednesday-Saturday-Monday-Friday-Sunday" Whoa!
It’s like counting money, and banking on that you will get your paycheck on ___ day of the month. Expect one is guaranteed and one is not. There’s a reason why they say “don’t count your chicken before they hatch”
Happened to Celtic last season. Don't get me wrong they were awful but the games in hand didn't help when Rangers were always top of the league. Because of covid they were playing catch up from only the third game of the season. By the time they had 4 games in hand, Rangers were 16 points ahead. Season was over by January.
Didn't help Burnley, and I'm glad. Proper shafted Dyche
❤️
rather the point secured
The time it took me to figure out it was about games that they have played less than the rest. Not having English as your first language makes it a bit harder to follow
It is always better to have points on board than having games in hand imo.
Spurs 7th with 3 games in hand. Played the 3 games, now 8th.
except they still have the 3 games in hand :P though more awkwardly this season so do arsenal in 6th , and wolves have 2 in hand in 7th. If Spurs win the next 3 and the other teams with games in hand falter could end up in 4th. But could easily lose all of them too. & who knows when games are actually going to level out again.
@@thehearingaid you must be the funniest person at parties :D
How did Burnley's 6 games in hand turn out for them?
And what about games in foot?
I think games in hand is hugely unfair, Burnley with this games in hand could end teams passion like Norwich or Watford... England should take a sharp decision "Max postponed games is 3" and postpone if highly necessary only
As a Manchester United fan, I’m a bit worried because there is that pressure of winning every single game since arsenal and Tottenham have some games in hand. United cannot afford to drop any
Last thing a Liverpool fan wants to watch
Meh, only one match behind.
Are you trying to troll Arsenal here with the timing of this video or what?!
Really??! The general consensus was that it’s better to have 3 points than to maybe get 3 points next week!! I’m stunned, who’d have thought it.
Many fans are guilty of adding 3 points to their team's total for each game in hand... it would be more sensible to add 2 if they are top side or 1 if they are lower side. In reality they can't count on any guaranteed points from them.
Watching this as a united fan rn sweating
Spurs and Arsenal fans hoping for something good
Came here after Milan won the league. Inter failed to win their game in hand against Bologna.
Clearly having games in hand, even if your form is abysmal, is still better than being mathematically relegated, or indeed mathematically incapable of winning the title.
A game in hand is worth two in Australia, or so the saying goes...🔥
1:14 love you guys but this is kinda stupid, of course it's better to have the 3 points, which is the maximum reward, then have a game to play and the possibility of losing them, i hardly think any manager would say "i would rather have 1 point than a game in hand"