How Can Iceland's Volcano Erupt While Showing Inflation Due To Magma? Geologists Weigh In
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- čas přidán 20. 04. 2024
- Geology professor Shawn Willsey dissects the ongoing eruption near Grindavik, Iceland by looking at various opinions by Icelandic scientists and also presents some simplified, half-baked models to illustrate what may be occurring in the subsurface.
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C. 30:00 - One thing's for sure, Shawn; very deep down, there's a huge ball of magma waiting to reach the surface and build land and mountains on this amazing planet. 😉
"Friendly little spatter cone" XD. I totally heard thats in Bob Ross' voice going "Happy little spatter cone."
Imaging Bob Ross painting erupting volcanoes brings me much Joy🤗
made my day! xD
Lol "Random Road cuts" , and Geological Updates with Shawn Ross??? Does CSI have an Art Program? (I'll soil myself (geologicly speaking?), if the next update sports a beard and perm!!!)
I truly appreciate the way you explain the ongoing event on the peninsula in your update videos and thank you for providing then to us. (Your artwork is just fine Shawn!)
Nice t-shirt, Sean! 1987 was a great year! Rock beds are certainly burning in Iceland! 😉 I always look forward to your well researched updates about these fascinating eruptions - thank you!
The Oils!! Great Aussie band 🤘🏼 Thank you again for another great update. Love your drawings, great way to show what could be happening. I didn’t realise how big the spatter cone was until I saw two people walking in the live camera at the end of your update. It’s huge!
Thanks for the sketches. They literally give shape to the written descriptions of what might be happening underground and help me to visualize the possibilities. I appreciate the news articles sent by Amanda Jo.
Great update, thank you! Your drawings and “half-baked” ideas really show how complex this situation is! Keep on doing what you do, exactly how you’re doing it. Your viewpoint really helps us makes sense out of everything that’s out there.
Love the cartoons!!! Hope no one rips them apart, they are perfect for educational purposes, and simply conveying ideas to the general public to help us visualize the possibilities. They were very helpful to me, thank you!
Thank you very much for another lesson on how science works:
Take data,
Make suggestions för explaining data,
Be aware that any new data might prove your suggestions wrong or right - and be ok with that.
So important!
Thanks, Shawn, and have a nice Sunday.
Sean, I’m an experienced artist and I want to reassure you that your drawing is just fine! You get the point across clearly, and drawing schematics from imagination, ie not copying, is considered quite challenging. So cut yourself some slack, and know that putting something out there (that’s outside of your comfort zone) in order to educate folks is really quite admirable. It’s very thought-provoking to see the different possibilities, even if reality turns out to be different. A big thank you and ample appreciation!
Gee thanks. Much appreciated.
Your honesty and frankness are refreshing! Your half-baked ideas are food for thought, though. Since I can’t draw at all, I’m not going to criticize yours. Thanks for sharing your ideas. Interested to see what happens over the next few weeks/months.
My cat and I are great admirers of your updates and sassy drawings as they are informative. Science begins with ideas and questions. I have learned so much from you and your common sense way of explaining our wonderful earth. My cat prefers the colored arrows.
Love that you gave you cats opinion too ❤
We have one kitty that chases Shawn's arrow mouse draggings. 😺
Great to get insight about alternatives to the volcanic development. Thanks, Shawn.
Hi shawn, ive missed a couple of your videos but thank you for continuing to make them. I hope your well.
Loving your batch of "half baked sketches".
Thank you Professor Shawn. I like your half baked #3 idea the best. Only time will tell. Take care now! Donna from PA/USA
Thanks for the update :)
Those people close to the volcano gives a good perspective on how tall the volcano is. My rough estimate based on their height of approx 1.8m says it's around 25-30m tall at the right side.
Thank you so much for another fantastic update.
Your honesty and humble approach is so refreshing. I love it.
You cannot beat a cartoon drawing. They are so much fun and easy to read in the classroom. The kids certainly have a good laugh at my attempts but I wouldn't be without them as they get the basic concepts across so much easier.
The slope of the current inflation is lower than the previous ones. It's like you are trying to fill a tire with air but there is still a leak in the tire so it's not filling up as fast.
And the tire, having been previously stretched, will now fill to a higher volume for a given pressure. I'm going for June 15th at the moment for a significant burst of flow, with the ongoing eruption continuuing through that period. There will also be lava from that large crack that is smoking 1/2KM to the north of the active cone. I give it a 10 min warning at most as the last segment of more cooled vertical rock needs to get busted through. The rest of the conduit is now sufficiently compliant that seismic signals from it will be very weak.
Thanks for these updates Shawn and team ❤ i really look forward to watching these after a hard day at work as i live near this volcano and despite the inconveniences tied in with these events i cannot help but find them very exciting
Thanks for all your thoughts
Thank you Shawn, welcome information as always.
Keep up the good work, Shawn!!! Thanks!
Thanks
😢Thanks once again Shawn for your honest assessment of the situation . I truly appreciate your honesty and input.
Great run down of the current situation..thanks, as always, Shawn
As always very informative. And I enjoyed the interpretation drawings😀. Thanks
Thank you Shawn 😊 great update very informative 👍 👏 😊
Thanks for the update. It really feels like earth laboratory and we are all students. It’s great learning with you 👏
That was great.. Thank you so much for giving your time and enthusiasm.
thanks for the update !
Thank you for sharing. Interesting as always.😊
Reminds me vaguely of river sandmodeling, where initial breakouts are random small channels but meander & collapse into main channels & temporary pools, esp. under high flow rates. For now, channel still indirect, lot of the pressure spent forcing a side pool w/ some spillover, but will soon gush out new channel with full flow.
Thank you once more Shawn. Always inciteful and neutral.
Thank you for your great reporting and insights
Thank you , your manner and style of teaching makes everything easy to understand very clear, accessible for all levels of understanding, really appreciated.
Hi Shawn, thanks for the update and explanation. Your Idea about constriction in system and/or increased flow rate sound very plausible and could be that what actually happens 👍
Thanks for the great videos and updates shawn !! Would love to know your thoughts on the recent earthquake of 5.4 and the uplift .
You make things so much easier to understand without all the confusion we just have to wait and see
Your drawings are very helpful in explaining possibilities, thank you 🎉
I'm a scientist in a different field and I just love your science communication skills. Brilliant job.
Thank you.
Thanks Shawn!
☕️👍 Thanks for the update once again.
Thanks, Shawn.
Thanks Shawn, great job as always! Nice shirt by the way : )
I agree.
Thanks Shawn.😊
Thanks for the update. While I truly do enjoy the usual data-rich updates, where you help us lay people interpret the data, it was interesting to get an update that was more of a "what's happening and what's next" update, featuring thoughts from vulcanologists.
Great detail
Thx Prof ✌🏻 fascinating stuff
At least a week until new soda gave me a chuckle.
Edit and landgiant. Translated from landris, meaning rise. Land rising or uplift. Which happens when lava starts to move under an area that subsequently rises.
Thank you!
Thanks so much!
hey shawn it is slow in the morning but around 7 or 8 pm iceland time it picks up every night for the past 2 weeks i have seen
That was informative. I think all of the options can be correct, but since none of us can go down there we'll never know. Thank you for your updates.
Thank you! Lots of food for thought, trying to envision what’s happening below our feet.
Thanks, like the sketches!
great video...
In the pacific NW of U.S., some glacial mountains are called "dormant volcanos" to indicate that the current absence of venting &/or lava flow does not deny that their potential do be active again still exists.
Thank you once again. I really enjoyed your hypothetical sketches. I'm sure it took courage to present those, but it really helps in interpreting the measured prose (at least when accurately translated!) from the Met Office. I personally warm to your "constriction" case, because it''s easy to imagine the conduit to the surface getting gradually gunged up, as in various memorable domestic cooking and plumbing disasters....
I love your diagrams/ great expansion of ideas! All the while, making me giggle with your “half baked ideas”.😅
Hi Prof Sean, hi guys. I'm watching Man U in the pub so no point in putting my headphones on but I'm hoping I can get the gist from images and comments.
Appreciate your educational posts on this subject.
Love your artwork, Shawn. The MoMA will be contacting you soon! 😊
As if. 😉
I was wondering about that 5.4 on Bardabunga earlier today..pretty significant quake for that region isn't it ? Thanks for your great videos Shawn. Very educational.
Covered this briefly at end.
Thanks Shawn 👍
@@shawnwillsey A bit too briefly imho!!! with that depth, 100m, it could be a a water-lava explosion?
I think the definition of "Volcano" for Kilauea is clearer because with its age, stability and number of eruptions, they have a clear understanding of the magma chamber and the piping around that goes up to halema'uma'u, the east and west rift zones. So the 2018 eruption was a Kilauea eruption with a number of fissures on LERZ including Fissure 8 that became prominent, but it was known that the magma came from Kilauea (which emptied Halema'uma'u that dropped about 300m as I recall). (and there were many other vent points over the centuries all coming from same reservoir).
My *impression* of Iceland is that is it a more dynamic environment with diffrerent magma chambers forming over time, but for the eruptions over Svartsengi since late last year, I would consider them to be the same volcano with different fissure that vented the red stuff.
Thank you- so interesting- !!
Thanks Shawn. It is frustrating that we cannot get direct imaging and pressure readings from the sub-surface systems. Like you said, without that it is only possible to guess at possibilities. It is clear that there is some form of limiter on the flow to the surface in as liquids always take the easiest path of least resistance. The inflow is greater than the outflow or expansion of storage would not exist. That said, it would be nice to know if pressure is increasing in part of the system. Up until this one, the actions of start and stop to the surface indicated a threshold pressure was needed to get through the plumbing to the surface but the continuing eruption implies that the restriction has changed and now will let continuous eruption go on. That does not mean all restriction was eliminated, just that it does not close completely as pressure drops. Without data it is purely a guess, but from a civil planning view you have to err on the cautious side. Better safe than sorry is how to say it I guess. Will the flow restriction open on the existing path or will it reach a pressure in the storage to break a new path? Anyone's guess but you can be sure it will be which ever is the easiest method to release pressure. That is the great unknown. Another factor is how much has the surrounding rock absorbed heat and become more pliable? After all these months of storage it has had to warm up by some factor making bending easier than breaking so earthquake activity should be lower if logic applies. I am not a geologist so I do not know the heat transfer rates and such so that might be a wrong guess and I am sure rock type is a factor as well. Bottom line is this is at heart a hydraulic system at work. Also gas in the "fluid" of hydraulic system are a major factor so the higher the gas content, the lower the pressures per volume of fluid. Very complex problem even with good data.
and 6 million cu m is still not even 1% of a cu km. That's just incredible given what we know about the size of the island, and events like the Siberian traps, the Columbia plateau, and the Deccan traps. Not to mention even the various islands of the Pacific. It's just incredible given that now we're around, and see this stuff in real time. Thanks prof Wilsey!
It is interesting, seeing scientists look at the same data and coming up with different scenarios. It’s good seeing science in unexplored territory.
Ignore any scientist (or their minions) who tells you that any science is settled. They have already started lying. Lack of evidence is not the same as evidence of lack. I was at a conference in my field in 1995, and right after a presenter popped a slide up on the screen, my coworker and I looked at eachother and we each said ""this" changes everything." I follow the volcanoes as an amateur and there are hard rules being broken by this sytem on an annual basis.
This is great.
Great shirt. Great band.❤❤Love your art work😊
Thanks all around
I like the power and your passion.
I see what you did there. Nice.
Hi Shawn - saw your presentation later on Sunday. You said the earthquake was felt in Dalvik; that’s way up north, near Akureyri.
Hi Shawn, I've always been fascinated in Geology, I was born in The Highlands of Scotland. I was very young as we moved down as a family, however, I've never lost my enthusiasm and interests in how The Highlands were formed. Am I right in thinking both The Highlands and the mountains in Wales, Snowdonia, the Lake District and parts of Ireland are somehow connected with Iceland from way back??? A few Millennia ago!! 😊.
Your videos are almost addictive as you provide information based on your knowledge as a Professor in your field.
Thank you.
Thanks for this explanation. I was talking to a family member and they were wondering why this didn’t look like a “typical” volcano.
Thanks from Sugar Land Texas
Thanks Shawn. Probably all of your magma flow models are correct and happening all at once!
My view is the plumbing under Svartsengi is a combination constriction and increased flow. Having seen a recent presentation paper by an Icelandic professor I am now 100% sure the magma sill when emptying will follow the same path to where it is erupting now rather than suddenly move directly up, after all the reason the sill formed was because there was no way through for it.
Thanks
Splendid explanations.
Di….Cumbria.
Nice job as usual. As a math and stats guy I love the graphs and how they show physical forces that are shaping the geology in real time. As you point out there are way too many unknowns to reliably predict what happens next based on past patterns. We do see that every eruption so far has happened when uplift is higher than the last event. Will this persist? Will the added lava above ground be thick and heavy enough cause the next opening to move to a new site? Or, as this is an active rift zone, will rifting move the weakest point to another site? Will this current event be the last for a while? Nobody knows! That's what keeps me coming back to your site. BTW we were on the Big Island when the long Kilauea eruption was ongoing and did a helicopter tour. That was worth every penny.
Thanks Professor Willsey, hadn’t considered that ancient lava chambers had been exposed by erosion.
PS - Looking forward to more lava and lecturers!
Yes, thanks for showing us this eruption footage, quite stirring to see the guts of Earth leaking out dramatically-
Thank you for sharing your wisdom! Interesting and important information about our Mother Nature and the way she works. ❤
I belive she plans to make Iceland bigger.
My best explanation for the uplift is its a garden hose, but the neck of the hose is getting choked. Not enough to stop the flow, but constricting enough to not be exiting as fast as its trying to flow. Because it cant flow out but it does have space in the tank to fill into instead; so its back filling. Another way to think is a Dam. where the flow out is less then the flow into the dam.
As always, excellent information and scenarios to consider, confirm or not. I’d be interested to know at what point of uplift the power station is compromised. A whole other conversation is there about the design of the plant to withstand the different stresses.
I imagined scenario 2 myself. Interesting!!
Another good report. Who knows your "half baked" scenarios might pan out. Thanks for the information. I always learn from you (retention is another matter) Be well.
Love your channel Prof. Willsey. I watch this camera just about every day since the eruption and it made me wonder, is the magma underneath affected by the gravitational pull of the Moon? Thanks for the great informative work.
Great explanation of multiple working hypotheses. The InSAR data could provide some additional information about the three-dimensional structure at depth but it is still only a surface displacement signal with very limited resolution at the depth of the magma chamber.
I'm a fan of the constricted system hypothesis, #3. As the source magma cools in the conduit and sticks to the walls harder, the conduit would get smaller. Kinda like mineral deposits in your pipes.
You had mentioned the people in the foreground of the spatter cone live video. If we figure that they were maybe 1.8m tall, my guess as the the height of the spatter cone (using them as scale) is about 36m (120 feet) above the height of their feet (which may be on top of a significant depth of semi-solidified lava. Most impressive, my young spatter cone!
Thank you for today's update @shawnwillsey, thanks for sharing your thoughts on the current situation with us! Your simple diagrams really help visualize what might be happening underground. And thanks @MandieJo as always for her help :) I guess all these divergent scientific opinions must be confusing for Icelanders, hmmm...
Great presentation, love the insights! I think the constricted model is most likely to be correct, with magma crystallization closing the conduit(s) over time that are feeding the spatter cone.
Shawn, if the magma is allowed to degass before reaching the surface, it will act like a fluid plug. I think 2 things are happening, both constriction to the active cone and "heavy" magma. If we see a new eruption, it most likely will be the approximate same location as the previous one, probably right at the steam vent currently active.
Thanks for the update. Love the Midnight Oil t'shirt...great ozzie (Australian) band.
Rock on!
One thing I don't understand is why so many assume that if there is a renewed eruption it will likely follow the same path as the current one and just reinforce it. The reason this puzzles me is if the magma could do so wouldn't it already be doing so rather than causing renewed uplift and refilling chamber? If it already has an exit conduit open to it why would it need to reach maximum capacity before it flowed through there? To my rather inexpert layman's opinion it seems that the reason that the magma chamber is refilling is because that the current magma dyke leading to the volcano is not allowing for more magma to flow through the system, and any further new eruption will have to find another path.
Shawn, there has been extensive degassing, which creates "heavy" lava, thus allowing the accumulation of magma again. The center of the last fissure eruption still has an extensive steam cloud, which is unusual, when compared to the past 3 eruptions, and we know that extensive volcanic gases have been emitted the past 3 weeks.
Thanks!
Much appreciated
Thank you Professor! I appreciate your drawings, they make sense. Any idea is a possibility😊
Hi everyone from New York State
You mentioned there are magma storage chambers that have been exposed on the surface that may give us some idea of what this one might look like. It would be interesting to see some of the old exposed chambers. I am guessing they do not look like a football but are more complicted.