Hi Rob I am a UK investor and find your sessions very helpful. I have a question that I just can’t find an answer for on the web - obv stocks are a great buy in the dip but does the same apply to bonds - I need at increase my bonds to 20% as they are currently 10% which I feel is too low. So are yields as they stand now good value - i intend to buy Global Bond Index Fund as I use Vanguard. Kind Regards Peter
I kept asking you how you could justify retiree's sit there and take losses in BND while Online savings and 1 year CDs have positive returns. You keep raising the FALSE FLAG of 100% stock portfolio (bet you censure this comment!!) as only alternative. CDs then just buy BND back once rates have gone back to normal. Now BND is down -7.39% YTD as of (4/7). I don't see where you get BND being less than 10% down for the year. Or $7,390 for every $100,000 in retirement income. And fed has just started first increase. With the war and the mistake of NATO doing WRONG sanctions (seize assets THEN announce, don't ban their resource, Give Ukraine lethal weapons not little boy toys, stuff so they can setup their own no fly) inflation will go thru roof and fed can't stop it but they will try with even higher interest rates and even more bond losses. Even short term bonds are losses -5% YTD. SO, I-bonds, which will have inflation losses before taxes and worse after taxes on next to nothing is best for 15K. I don't see where you get BND being less than 10% down for the year. Annuities are horrible as rates rise. If you truely have reason to believe they can recover from here, then selling months ago when the fed started talking about having to raise rates causing me to suggest it would give 7% more to invest now. Though I would still hold out until for more rate hikes before $ cost averaging into bonds at higher rates above CD rates.
Just because a stock is going up doesn’t mean it’s a good investment. just because a stock is going down doesn’t mean it’s a bad investment. theres more to a stock than just its stock price. An entire company more. focus on the company, not just the stock price.
im really starting to enjoy these shows more and more,,he does a very professional job setting this all up and its nice to have the questions on the screen to view..im surprised Rob doesn't have like 1 million subscribers by now his shows are just full of great information
I missed this live because I had to attend my investment club meeting. We had an extended debate on dividend investing versus growth investing. Nothing was decided, but at least we're making money with some of both.
58:59 Hah😂. I bought VTEB today in my newly opened brokerage account. This was in no small part to listening to Rob’s backlog of content. To hear him say that he owns it put a smile on my face. Thanks for sharing your wisdom with the community.
The Great Depression was not a 90% loss in value. From top to bottom, it was an 86% capital loss plus 19% in dividends, for a net loss of 67%. Dividends were much higher then. Capital gains/loss plus dividends = total return. We should always rely upon 'total return' for decision making. The Federal Reserve has also recently admitted that their poor decisions were largely responsible for the severity of the 1929 crash. We just witnessed how the Federal Reserve has improved their decision making. They, and Congress, artfully guided us through a pandemic.
Hi, Rob, given nowadays conditions, should I buy BND now? Or just wait until federal stops increase interest in 2023 ? I need to buy more bond for my retirement account. Thanks
First off I own bonds in my portfolio. Correct me if I’m wrong and being naïve but isn’t the Fed by raising the interest rate manipulating the bond market and to a degree the stock market every time they announce they’re raising rates. Is it any different than when Elon Musk buys Twitter and then the next day he announces he bought it and the stock price goes way up, or even Warren Buffett buys HP and the day after it’s announced the stock goes up up up and Berkshire makes millions of dollars in one day. Is this just business as usual or blatant manipulation of markets? Aren’t there laws against this sort of thing? Or if not shouldn’t there be? Bonds are supposed to be a safer investment that holds there value when stocks tank, if the fed manipulates the interest rates how safe are they?
@Rob Berger One use case for NTSX would be replacing US large cap in an all equity portfolio (or even something like a 90/10). Although it is essentially a leveraged 60/40 portfolio, I do think something like VOO is the right comparison for anyone who would be buying it. Would love to hear a more in depth analysis of the fund though.
The 4% rule: this ignores expenses and assumes Investment in US stock market with no changes to holdings, when the average investor generally does panic in a downturn etc Allowing for expenses, investment in lower growth international markets and realistic investment practice must surely give a figure below the 4% rule?
@Rob Berger Could you move the livestreams back a couple of hours so US and UK viewers alike can enjoy it. I know most US personal finance and investing CZcamsrs have a good following in the UK, following their US following. Me and my British brethren would appreciate it.
@Rob Berger thanks for your time and amazing guidance What do you think about investing in I shares as they are giving 9.62 percent rather than bonds ? What will happen if the raising the intrest rate by feds canot control inflation and then they have to aggressively increase rates? How it will effect the debt of us govt intrest payments?
My wife and I have 4 pensions between us, how do you factor that into your asset allocation or do you? More aggressive asset allocation due to the pensions?
Yes with 4 pensions AND if those pensions are enough income in retirement your allocation can be much more aggressive. I have 1 pension that will cover 80% of my income needs so my allocation will be 80 to 90% equities...
I have much of my short term assets in Vanguard Short Term Investment Grade Bond Fund and I am curious of your opinion as to whether additional increases by the Fed will result in further capital losses or does the current pricing reflect anticipated Fed rate increases. This bond fund (VFSUX) is relatively conservative with respect to rate risk but has been disappointing in that the total return is (according to Morningstar) -4.24% 2022YTD.
I've wondered the same thing. Since this fund (and similar funds) have short maturities of a few years, you would think the losses due to interest rate increases would be minimal and short lived. But hard to know how luch the losses will be and how long they will continue.
As long as you hold until the average duration (looks like it's just under 3 years for that fund) you shouldn't have to worry about rising rates. I thought the same until I learned about duration and maturity. Bonds always look bad in the short term during rising rates, but long term effects of higher yields make up for it. The big question is what stock/bond allocation you should have, typically based on how long you expect to be invested.
@@SKITTLELA Unfortunately, this is money I intend to use over the next 3 years and I'm concerned but don't know for sure, whether further rate increases will result in additional capital losses. I agree that the total return can be expected to recover with higher yields over time if rates are stable.
@@irarosenberg If you intend to use it *starting* in 3 years, I would see no problem at all with it. If you intend to start drawing it down sooner than that, I would probably keep whatever portion you intend to spend earlier in a savings account. Nicki Maggiulli has a blog titled 'Of Dollars and Data' and one time he wrote about this topic/saving for a mortgage payment, and it seems like he found anything shorter than three years should be in cash.
Yes, in fact most people assume you're talking about a bond mutual fund (like a Total Bond Fund). You can get a mix of corporate, municipal and federal bonds in one investment. And it's easier to do rebalancing that way.
Yes, as high as 15% for the most conservative risk profile, then I believe the most aggressive is 7%. I've been in the Schwab IP Premium for a couple years and the cash requirement is definitely a drag on performance. Additionally, it is overly complex, having up to 20 or so funds in any particular account. I have found the CFP supported planning service to be very helpful. I generally like the service/investments, but I am in the process of adjusting a significant amount out to self-manage due to the heavy cash drag on performance. In this inflationary environment, I don't feel comfortable to have heavy cash positions.
@@billc.7236 agree on the other hand the bonds help reduce volatility (in theory) and cash can be deployed after a downturn. I guess the right allocation depends on how close we are to retirement and our risk tolerance. But at times I too question how much of my account is in cash.
Here's the retirement calculator I couldn't find during the live Q&A: ficalc.app/
Hi Rob
I am a UK investor and find your sessions very helpful. I have a question that I just can’t find an answer for on the web - obv stocks are a great buy in the dip but does the same apply to bonds - I need at increase my bonds to 20% as they are currently 10% which I feel is too low. So are yields as they stand now good value - i intend to buy Global Bond Index Fund as I use Vanguard.
Kind Regards
Peter
I kept asking you how you could justify retiree's sit there and take losses in BND while Online savings and 1 year CDs have positive returns. You keep raising the FALSE FLAG of 100% stock portfolio (bet you censure this comment!!) as only alternative. CDs then just buy BND back once rates have gone back to normal. Now BND is down -7.39% YTD as of (4/7). I don't see where you get BND being less than 10% down for the year. Or $7,390 for every $100,000 in retirement income. And fed has just started first increase. With the war and the mistake of NATO doing WRONG sanctions (seize assets THEN announce, don't ban their resource, Give Ukraine lethal weapons not little boy toys, stuff so they can setup their own no fly) inflation will go thru roof and fed can't stop it but they will try with even higher interest rates and even more bond losses. Even short term bonds are losses -5% YTD. SO, I-bonds, which will have inflation losses before taxes and worse after taxes on next to nothing is best for 15K. I don't see where you get BND being less than 10% down for the year. Annuities are horrible as rates rise.
If you truely have reason to believe they can recover from here, then selling months ago when the fed started talking about having to raise rates causing me to suggest it would give 7% more to invest now. Though I would still hold out until for more rate hikes before $ cost averaging into bonds at higher rates above CD rates.
These live streams are full of knowledge. Learn something new every time. Thanks Steve
Just because a stock is going up doesn’t mean it’s a good investment. just because a stock is going down doesn’t mean it’s a bad investment. theres more to a stock than just its stock price. An entire company more. focus on the company, not just the stock price.
Hi Rob. I love having the questions up on the screen. Great investment!
Love the questions posted to the screen**
im really starting to enjoy these shows more and more,,he does a very professional job setting this all up and its nice to have the questions on the screen to view..im surprised Rob doesn't have like 1 million subscribers by now his shows are just full of great information
I missed this live because I had to attend my investment club meeting. We had an extended debate on dividend investing versus growth investing. Nothing was decided, but at least we're making money with some of both.
58:59 Hah😂. I bought VTEB today in my newly opened brokerage account. This was in no small part to listening to Rob’s backlog of content. To hear him say that he owns it put a smile on my face. Thanks for sharing your wisdom with the community.
The original VW bug had the motor in the rear. I had one in the 70’s.
thanks
The Great Depression was not a 90% loss in value. From top to bottom, it was an 86% capital loss plus 19% in dividends, for a net loss of 67%. Dividends were much higher then. Capital gains/loss plus dividends = total return. We should always rely upon 'total return' for decision making. The Federal Reserve has also recently admitted that their poor decisions were largely responsible for the severity of the 1929 crash. We just witnessed how the Federal Reserve has improved their decision making. They, and Congress, artfully guided us through a pandemic.
Hi, Rob, given nowadays conditions, should I buy BND now? Or just wait until federal stops increase interest in 2023 ?
I need to buy more bond for my retirement account. Thanks
First off I own bonds in my portfolio. Correct me if I’m wrong and being naïve but isn’t the Fed by raising the interest rate manipulating the bond market and to a degree the stock market every time they announce they’re raising rates. Is it any different than when Elon Musk buys Twitter and then the next day he announces he bought it and the stock price goes way up, or even Warren Buffett buys HP and the day after it’s announced the stock goes up up up and Berkshire makes millions of dollars in one day. Is this just business as usual or blatant manipulation of markets? Aren’t there laws against this sort of thing? Or if not shouldn’t there be? Bonds are supposed to be a safer investment that holds there value when stocks tank, if the fed manipulates the interest rates how safe are they?
Yes, they are a terrible idea right now.
Why? Hold on until average duration and short-term doesn't matter. Most importantly, high quality bonds make for great diversifiers to stocks.
What do you see as a replacement for BND?
@Rob Berger
One use case for NTSX would be replacing US large cap in an all equity portfolio (or even something like a 90/10).
Although it is essentially a leveraged 60/40 portfolio, I do think something like VOO is the right comparison for anyone who would be buying it.
Would love to hear a more in depth analysis of the fund though.
The 4% rule: this ignores expenses and assumes Investment in US stock market with no changes to holdings, when the average investor generally does panic in a downturn etc Allowing for expenses, investment in lower growth international markets and realistic investment practice must surely give a figure below the 4% rule?
Congrats on 55K Subs Rob!
@Rob Berger Could you move the livestreams back a couple of hours so US and UK viewers alike can enjoy it. I know most US personal finance and investing CZcamsrs have a good following in the UK, following their US following. Me and my British brethren would appreciate it.
👍on-screen questions
If I get $40k in pension each year is that like $1 million bond alternative using the 4% rule?
With Rising interest rates is it better to use ultra-short bonds short-term treasury bonds or just the Total Bond
Bonds are a downside risk mitigation when you are getting closer to retirement.
But should we expect them to actually be any better than a good online savings account going forwards?
@@I..cast..fireball I don't see how bonds will have lower yields than savings accounts. Maybe CDs.
@Rob Berger thanks for your time and amazing guidance
What do you think about investing in I shares as they are giving 9.62 percent rather than bonds ?
What will happen if the raising the intrest rate by feds canot control inflation and then they have to aggressively increase rates? How it will effect the debt of us govt intrest payments?
Looking forward to the show!
Looks good 👍
Of course, but people buy bad investment all the time
My wife and I have 4 pensions between us, how do you factor that into your asset allocation or do you? More aggressive asset allocation due to the pensions?
Yes with 4 pensions AND if those pensions are enough income in retirement your allocation can be much more aggressive. I have 1 pension that will cover 80% of my income needs so my allocation will be 80 to 90% equities...
I have much of my short term assets in Vanguard Short Term Investment Grade Bond Fund and I am curious of your opinion as to whether additional increases by the Fed will result in further capital losses or does the current pricing reflect anticipated Fed rate increases. This bond fund (VFSUX) is relatively conservative with respect to rate risk but has been disappointing in that the total return is (according to Morningstar) -4.24% 2022YTD.
I've wondered the same thing. Since this fund (and similar funds) have short maturities of a few years, you would think the losses due to interest rate increases would be minimal and short lived. But hard to know how luch the losses will be and how long they will continue.
As long as you hold until the average duration (looks like it's just under 3 years for that fund) you shouldn't have to worry about rising rates. I thought the same until I learned about duration and maturity. Bonds always look bad in the short term during rising rates, but long term effects of higher yields make up for it. The big question is what stock/bond allocation you should have, typically based on how long you expect to be invested.
@@SKITTLELA Unfortunately, this is money I intend to use over the next 3 years and I'm concerned but don't know for sure, whether further rate increases will result in additional capital losses. I agree that the total return can be expected to recover with higher yields over time if rates are stable.
@@irarosenberg If you intend to use it *starting* in 3 years, I would see no problem at all with it. If you intend to start drawing it down sooner than that, I would probably keep whatever portion you intend to spend earlier in a savings account.
Nicki Maggiulli has a blog titled 'Of Dollars and Data' and one time he wrote about this topic/saving for a mortgage payment, and it seems like he found anything shorter than three years should be in cash.
Is it Rick Ferri that asked you on his podcast? Just a guess, Rob.
Stan the Annuity Man is great!
Thanks for the video! I have a question regarding the 4% rule. Can we invest in bond fund instead of the actual bond for the bonds portion? Thanks
Yes, in fact most people assume you're talking about a bond mutual fund (like a Total Bond Fund). You can get a mix of corporate, municipal and federal bonds in one investment. And it's easier to do rebalancing that way.
Thanks
Schwab Intelligent portfolio runs 15% cash. Too high. I guess it can vary based on goals a person enters during portfolio setup.
Yes, as high as 15% for the most conservative risk profile, then I believe the most aggressive is 7%. I've been in the Schwab IP Premium for a couple years and the cash requirement is definitely a drag on performance. Additionally, it is overly complex, having up to 20 or so funds in any particular account. I have found the CFP supported planning service to be very helpful. I generally like the service/investments, but I am in the process of adjusting a significant amount out to self-manage due to the heavy cash drag on performance. In this inflationary environment, I don't feel comfortable to have heavy cash positions.
@@billc.7236 agree on the other hand the bonds help reduce volatility (in theory) and cash can be deployed after a downturn. I guess the right allocation depends on how close we are to retirement and our risk tolerance. But at times I too question how much of my account is in cash.
That’s an insane amt of cash held, that’s part of how they make their cut
👍🏻
Hey Rob have you thought going for Exam 65 ?
❤️👍🏻
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