Rob Berger
Rob Berger
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Decoding The “Chance of Success” In Your Retirement Plan
You enter your income, expenses, investments, and liabilities into your favorite retirement planner. You click a button, the software does some kind of calculation, and out pops a single number.
It may be 87%. Maybe it’s 72%. Or it could be 15%. Whatever the number, you’re told it represents your retirement plan’s “Chance of Success.”
What exactly does that mean? How is it calculated? And what “Chance of Success” should you aim for? We’ll tackle these and other questions in this video.
You'll find my article on this topic as well as links to the tools I use in this video in this article: robberger.com/decoding-the-chance-of-success-in-your-retirement-plan/
Timestamps
0:00 - Chance of Success in Retirement
1:49 - FICalc
4:17 - New Retirement
6:57 - What number should we aim for?
10:14 - Rate of return assumptions
12:36 - Optimistic assumption/Pessimistic assumption
14:14 - Needing every single dime
15:02 - What if we things don’t work out as planned?
15:45 Financial Freedom
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*Financial tools I use:*
*I track all of my investments, performance, fees, and asset allocation with Empower. It's Free:*
robberger.com/empower
*My retirement plan comes from New Retirement, the most robust retirement planner available at a reasonable cost:*
robberger.com/new-retirement
*I used Capitalize for my last 401(k) rollover. They did all of the work, and it's Free:*
robberger.com/capitalize
*My budgeting tool of choice is Tiller. It downloads all your banking data to Excel or Google Sheets:*
robberger.com/tiller
*We save and invest our credit card rewards. Here are some of my favorite credit cards:*
www.allcards.com/best-credit-card-offers/?CZcams&Video+Links&
*My Book (Retire Before Mom and Dad):*
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#retirement #planning #robberger
ABOUT ME
While still working as a trial attorney in the securities field, I started writing about personal finance and investing In 2007. In 2013 I started the Doughroller Money Podcast, which has been downloaded millions of times. Today I'm the Deputy Editor of Forbes Advisor, managing a growing team of editors and writers that produce content to help readers make the most of their money.
I'm also the author of Retire Before Mom and Dad--The Simple Numbers Behind a Lifetime of Financial Freedom (amzn.to/3by10EE)
LET'S CONNECT
CZcams: czcams.com/channels/9C17-OMxa-7oRSaCtztObw.html
Facebook: financialfreedomguy/
Twitter: Robert_A_Berger
DISCLAIMER: I am not a financial adviser. These videos are for educational purposes only. Investing of any kind involves risk. Your investment and other financial decisions are solely your responsibility. It is imperative that you conduct your own research and seek professional advice as necessary. I am merely sharing my opinions.
AFFILIATE DISCLOSURE: Some of the links on this channel are affiliate links, meaning at no cost to you I earn a commission if you click through and make a purchase and/or subscribe. However, I only recommend products or services that (1) I believe in and (2) would recommend to my own mom.
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Komentáře

  • @stevemiller2288
    @stevemiller2288 Před 13 hodinami

    Hi Rob, I have a question regarding SMA’s recommend from a Fidelity advisor. This SMA has 200 stocks large cap that they manage at .7% fee. What are your thoughts about SMA’s. Thanks. I am a subscriber and enjoy your channel

  • @claire4974
    @claire4974 Před 14 hodinami

    I worked for 9 years at Vanguard in Pennsylvania . The app and the website is terrible . Terrible service on the phone… I want to transfer my assets to Fidelity. I can’t believe I am saying this…. 😢

  • @BiggMo
    @BiggMo Před 17 hodinami

    Good morning Rob… it’s been 3 years, are you still pro M1 Finance? (Thanks for the content BTW)

  • @anthonysimpson6738
    @anthonysimpson6738 Před 18 hodinami

    I think jobs should be created for retiring aged people part time and beneficial for the retirees and society. There are lots of ways the elderly could contribute work wise to society. But we also have to be realistic most people retiring around 65 and more likely now 70 as govt try and avoid the cost. Will only live to 75-80. Very few live past 80 and those that do usually can’t be expected to contribute in that way. Which is only 10 or 15 years if in good health to find hobbies, other pastimes or things to simply enjoy the last years of their lives. I think better idea is a balanced flexible retirement and a retirement that doesn’t force people to have to work. Retirement should still be a given after working most of your life. Retirement also will have great health, social and cognitive benefits for those who to use. I think the examples you provided are more people that are ‘retired’ but are so well off or famous their work isn’t really work. Most people work is what they do to pay the bills and isn’t something they enjoy. I think better option is our govts try and engage people prior to retirement into mandatory education courses run by retirees and educators around how to retire well. As someone who has retired a little earlier I don’t regret it one bit, and I see your point though some people will find it boring, the lack of structure and they miss the social interaction with workmates. Their job role or position is their identity. But most of that is superficial. They need to find things to replace work that they are passionate about.

  • @ytv6770
    @ytv6770 Před 18 hodinami

    Charles Schwab ova here.

  • @alr9967
    @alr9967 Před 21 hodinou

    I’m amazed that two different people are posted as Tech directors with 52 years experience. lol. Scammers

  • @WheelsInTheSky
    @WheelsInTheSky Před dnem

    Thanks. I was a bucket guy after listening to Christine. Then I read Estrada’s article last night and found your channel today. Great video for clarity.

  • @OffGridandOutdoors

    It seems like we are WAY over valued right now.

  • @RichardMiller-jv3vo

    Thanx Rob. Great content. Btw. I’m a Schwab and great west guy.

  • @steveaytch6022
    @steveaytch6022 Před dnem

    Simple program I have folled through thick and thin: on friday afternoon, check the NASDAQ... if it is a positive week, do nothing. If it is a negative week buy the percentage of your milly that the index is down for the week. I call it "Smart dollar cost averaging."

  • @richarma-lb2hd
    @richarma-lb2hd Před dnem

    @rob_berger the CZcams channel “Tax Info USA” is running this video with some overlay animation over it as their own.

  • @imsteveb
    @imsteveb Před dnem

    Great video! We seem to be in new territory compaired to the last 100 years+. It seems the new norm is inverted yeild curves, Schiller PE over 30 (Currently 34.71 in May 24). It seems like a lot of experts are having a hard time making decisions (predictions) based on the old ways of examining data. Is this time different ? 😀

  • @edwardmarks4293
    @edwardmarks4293 Před dnem

    If you have the financial stability to retire and a plan to fill your days with activities and interests do it. That's where I currently am. But, if you can't afford it and all you're going to do is watch TV, keep working.

  • @JC-ce7ud
    @JC-ce7ud Před dnem

    Clown channel

  • @Emily-le2op
    @Emily-le2op Před dnem

    I suggest you offset your precious metals and get into digital stocks and other digital assets, Downturns as bad it can be, provides good buying opportunities in the markets and it can also create volatility giving great short time buy and sell opportunities too. This is not financial advise but get buying, cash isn’t king at all in this time!

    • @SageMadsen
      @SageMadsen Před dnem

      To the newbies I would say have a mentor. Not sure where you will get an experience one, but if your knowledge of the market is limited, it seems like a good bet.

  • @DirtyHippie63
    @DirtyHippie63 Před dnem

    Great video, again. Years ago, I started thinking of the "Chance of Success" as my "Chance of having to/getting to modify my plans", since we have that flexibility. I also realize it's a semantic difference but it helps me think about our near / long terms options to make adjustments more comfortably.

  • @marionharris5952
    @marionharris5952 Před dnem

    What about projection lab

  • @dandan141414
    @dandan141414 Před dnem

    Do you know of a tool that allows you to plan out spending year by year? For example, in year 4, I'll have 2 kids in college, in year 5, I'll buy a new car, and in year 8 I'll take a trip of a lifetime. I'd like to be able to map it out, instead of assuming average spending year over year.

  • @CaptainBenjamins
    @CaptainBenjamins Před 2 dny

    I spat water out of my mouth when you said $30/month. Just put ads up, I wouldn’t pay that much for any website. Even if they ask for donations I would buy the devs a coffee

  • @Michelle_Sanders561

    More people might face a tough time in retirement. Low-paying jobs, inflation, and high rents make it hard to save. Now, middle-class Americans find it tough to own a home too, leaving them without a place to retire without any investment. Retirement becomes truly fulfilling when you possess two essential elements: financial resources and a meaningful purpose in life. Make prudent investment choices to secure good returns and ensure a comfortable retirement...

    • @LeslieWagenheim
      @LeslieWagenheim Před 2 dny

      I'm lucky as far as expectations in retirement. I travelled when I was younger, don't have extravagant tastes since I was used to sacrificing all those years. I think I'll have a very good retirement partaking in my low cost hobbies, and living cheaply because of it.

    • @user-qs9by1fq4o
      @user-qs9by1fq4o Před dnem

      Can I get connected here in Switzerland 🇨🇭I keep hearing " Cynthia Mcclure Alexander " name being mentioned everywhere. Is there any social media handle I can contact her?

    • @OliverTilney
      @OliverTilney Před dnem

      I believe at the age of 30, you should be able to have something called an investment or a backup plan already. It makes things easy when you are retired.

    • @RoryAllen118
      @RoryAllen118 Před dnem

      YES!!! That's exactly her name( Cynthia Mcclure Alexander) so many people have recommended highly her I'm a huge beneficiary of her platform from Brisbane Australia 🇦🇺

    • @KimberlyWillowWood
      @KimberlyWillowWood Před dnem

      I retired 2 years ago. My husband retired two years later also at age 62. To date, we have not touched a dime of our retirement savings. We are having zero issues living on nothing more than our Social Security.

  • @matthewfarrell317
    @matthewfarrell317 Před 2 dny

    Issue i have, is if you are selling stocks to fund retirement, you are still stuck in poor man thinking. I know a lot push the just enough for retirement mentality etc, but the middle and poor class needs to start copying the rich class in wealth transfer to children. I am lucky, being an Australian, we have franking credits, so our version of the SP500, the ASX SP200, has a base dividend of 4%, but during retirement it becomes closer to 5.2%, or when you are on the lower tax brackets. Im doing the 40/60 split, 40% growth, and 60% dividend. If i have to sell shares, i failed.

  • @ebbss3053
    @ebbss3053 Před 2 dny

    I’m sorta confused, and I’m still learning about the retirement and investing. Are you still investing even after retirement?

  • @jonny777bike
    @jonny777bike Před 2 dny

    I put money in YieldMax. Its only like 10% of my total portfolio.

  • @atomicbrothers8600
    @atomicbrothers8600 Před 2 dny

    After listening to you and others, I think it’s pretty clear that the bucket method can be harmful. I saw another video that went into more depth on how they used the bucket strategy with historical data and the standard portfolio with annual rebalancing beat it in every single scenario. Certainly having these 3 buckets makes managing your investments in retirement waaay more complex. And to the person who mentioned it helped when both stocks and bonds are down, I would point out that it only “helps “for the period of time that you don’t have to touch the bucket. The downside is that you may have more stuff sitting somewhere not earning its keep. Personally what you said at the end, about keeping a “bucket” for your cash to spend and varying the size of that bucket to your comfort level. I would definitely bet the bigger that bucket of cash, the worse off your portfolio would do long term. You’ll pay for that piece of mind. Simplest thing is just keep your portfolio in whatever ratio you decide on and take your 4% (or whatever) allocation each year and rebalance. Most importantly, remember all these CFP’s are designingbthesebstrategies to get you to pay them. Most of it is a scam. Do your homework and take control of your own future

  • @Betty-dc5ck
    @Betty-dc5ck Před 2 dny

    We Are in Unchartered Financial Waters! every day we encounter challenges that have become the new standard. Although we previously perceived it as a crisis, we now acknowledge it as the new normal and must adapt accordingly. Given the current economic difficulties that the country is experiencing in 2024, how can we enhance our earnings during this period of adjustment? I cannot let my $680,000 savings vanish after putting in so much effort to accumulate them.

    • @Helen-tg4tr
      @Helen-tg4tr Před 2 dny

      You have a very valid point, I started investing on my own and for a long time, the market was really ripping me off. I decided to hire a CFA, even though I was skeptical at first, and I beat the market by more than 9%. I thought it was a fluke until it happened two years in a row, and so I’ve been sticking to investing via an analyst

    • @Helen-tg4tr
      @Helen-tg4tr Před 2 dny

      My CFA ’ANGELA LYNN SCHILLING’ , a renowned figure in her line of work. I recommend researching her credentials further. She has many years of experience and is a valuable resource for anyone looking to navigate the financial market.

  • @robertplunkett8839
    @robertplunkett8839 Před 2 dny

    If you think about it Dave Ramsey is overly Conservative when it comes to Credit Cards which causes people to lose out on a lot of benefits like points and offers. He also recommends that people pay down low interest mortgages instead of investing. When You are this Conservative with investments during your working years your overall portfolio will naturally be much much smaller therefore it makes sense that you'll need to withdrawal more to live comfortably 😆 LOL. Personally I'd prefer to be a little more aggressive in the beginning than when I have a lot more to lose but that's just me. LOL

  • @Gas_man
    @Gas_man Před 2 dny

    I stopped listening to Dave a while back because I realized he’s not a serious person and he’s so arrogant that he’ll never change his advice even in the face of strong conflicting evidence. This further confirms that.

  • @Lisa-jy7bk
    @Lisa-jy7bk Před 2 dny

    We Are in Unchartered Financial Waters! every day we encounter challenges that have become the new standard. Although we previously perceived it as a crisis, we now acknowledge it as the new normal and must adapt accordingly. Given the current economic difficulties that the country is experiencing in 2024, how can we enhance our earnings during this period of adjustment? I cannot let my $680,000 savings vanish after putting in so much effort to accumulate them.

    • @Helen-tg4tr
      @Helen-tg4tr Před 2 dny

      Keeping some gold is usually a wise decision. You would be better off keeping away from equities for a bit or, even better, seeking advice from an expert given the current market conditions and everything that is at risk with the current economy.

  • @seamusallen3839
    @seamusallen3839 Před 2 dny

    I think this video talks in a really strange way about risk. Risk is not the percent your assets might go down. For an ordinary investor, risk is the chance of asset price changes in their portfolio causing something bad to happen, like needing to reduce your living expenses. When stocks go up and therefore your allocation to them goes up, your risk has *decreased* because you now have more assets. Your bond allocation is your backstop/hedge- money you want to keep safe in the event of a market crash. The stock market going up shouldn’t mean you need a bigger safety net than you used to.

  • @Betty-dc5ck
    @Betty-dc5ck Před 2 dny

    We Are in Unchartered Financial Waters! every day we encounter challenges that have become the new standard. Although we previously perceived it as a crisis, we now acknowledge it as the new normal and must adapt accordingly. Given the current economic difficulties that the country is experiencing in 2024, how can we enhance our earnings during this period of adjustment? I cannot let my $680,000 savings vanish after putting in so much effort to accumulate them.

    • @Helen-tg4tr
      @Helen-tg4tr Před 2 dny

      I've tried investing in the stock market several times but always got discouraged by fluctuations of stock value. I would be happy if you could advise me based on how you went about yours, as I am ready to go the passive income path.!!

    • @Helen-tg4tr
      @Helen-tg4tr Před 2 dny

      I just looked her up on the web and I would say she really has an impressive background in investing. I will write her an email shortly.

  • @Lisa-jy7bk
    @Lisa-jy7bk Před 2 dny

    We Are in Unchartered Financial Waters! every day we encounter challenges that have become the new standard. Although we previously perceived it as a crisis, we now acknowledge it as the new normal and must adapt accordingly. Given the current economic difficulties that the country is experiencing in 2024, how can we enhance our earnings during this period of adjustment? I cannot let my $680,000 savings vanish after putting in so much effort to accumulate them.

    • @Helen-tg4tr
      @Helen-tg4tr Před 2 dny

      Keeping some gold is usually a wise decision. You would be better off keeping away from equities for a bit or, even better, seeking advice from an expert given the current market conditions and everything that is at risk with the current economy.

  • @rolandconnor575
    @rolandconnor575 Před 3 dny

    too may variables to say one way or the other. What about if you don't even start taking out from fund until late 70s... what about if you have a source of rental income to supplement a lower than one million dollar savings... what about if you have no children and your wife is going to get everything that is left... too many variables

  • @rolandconnor575
    @rolandconnor575 Před 3 dny

    The next video on the list to the right of this one is "7 reasons to retire ASAP"

  • @terry_willis
    @terry_willis Před 3 dny

    I don't get the $100 account closure and transfer fee. If you transfer all your money out of Vanguard, they charge you $100?? Is that legal? What is you leave $1 in your account? Would that not trigger a fee?

  • @Mattxwill1
    @Mattxwill1 Před 3 dny

    Rob! I am also using tiller and empower. Can you take a look at MaxiFi Planner versus New Retirement? I would love to hear your take. MaxiFi Planner looks good.

  • @Mattxwill1
    @Mattxwill1 Před 3 dny

    I am impacted. I do not want yet another website to log into to see where my money is. $20 fee per fund notwithstanding. Looked into Wealthfront, Betterment, M1, and a few others. Most of these DO NOT offer Self employed 401K. Only Fidelity seemed to have one, and no fees to boot. The only downside is that you can NOT link your business account to Fidelity's 401K like you could with Vanguard. I tried and called them - its a no go. So If you want to keep your business expense/payroll records separate you have to write them (or yourself a check) and then deposit that into your 401K. In my case that is 2 checks, as i need to write 1 for the employee (me) and 1 from the employer (my company) While this is silly and cumbersome, I reckon its better than moving over $500K to some company i never heard off. I cant believe Vanguard is taking this direction of fees and closing services. VERY disappointing.

  • @MichaelToub
    @MichaelToub Před 3 dny

    Great Video!

  • @maxagent86
    @maxagent86 Před 3 dny

    What are your thoughts on Merrill Lynch? TIA

  • @garybailey4524
    @garybailey4524 Před 3 dny

    You are both wrong. The average retired person doesn’t take the same amount of money every year. Higher amounts in the active years … less in the later years. Also, why ignore social security in these calculations? I plan on an 8% rate of return and withdraw about 9% now (I’m 58). Once social security kicks in, I’ll be Down to 3 or 4% because I’ll be taking money from a Roth. I used the rule of 55 to take from my 401k. Talk to a real CFP instead of someone on CZcams or the radio. Dave Ramsey does give great advise when it comes to getting out of debt but he’s not a retirement expert. Only the truly rich can afford to keep all their retirement in stocks. Most of us use the 3 bucket rule to insure our future income.

  • @Breezeyogi
    @Breezeyogi Před 3 dny

    This is true wisdom. I fully agree. I enjoy working and ha e zero intention of "retiring." I turn 67 this weekend. I co.pleyely tired of all the advice and CZcamss that make "retirement" sound like something absolutely necessary and as a kind of Nirvana. How boring!

  • @robsteal3887
    @robsteal3887 Před 3 dny

    This really sucks.. I'd be happy to pay maybe 10 bucks a month and give me the old website back.

  • @josephjuno9555
    @josephjuno9555 Před 3 dny

    I am 62 single male, get modest Pension no COLA. Considering SPIA to Delay SS? Will really bite If idiots in Congress let SS Cut our benefits?

  • @wilmacashore8691
    @wilmacashore8691 Před 3 dny

    You can no longer model RMDs either.

  • @610boating5
    @610boating5 Před 3 dny

    When you work a physical job the decision to retire is made for you.

  • @Bobventk
    @Bobventk Před 3 dny

    You can still buy SPIAs with inflation adjustments

  • @peterparker2068
    @peterparker2068 Před 4 dny

    Most of the fees associated with self-managed accounts seem reasonable. There's a valid concern for older generations who may lack experience with managing investment accounts online. Many in this age group might have already accumulated significant wealth, potentially making these fees less of a burden. Additionally, robo-advisors offer a lower-cost alternative for those seeking basic investment management. Licensing for customer service representatives who handle calls is important might be a requirement as well. While not always mandatory, requiring licenses like the SIE and Series 6 exams can act as a valuable safeguard. These qualifications demonstrate a baseline knowledge of securities and protect clients from potentially unqualified representatives. Overall, a balanced approach is key. Offering different service tiers with varying fees allows for customization to client needs and experience levels. Regulatory requirements, while potentially adding cost, can also provide valuable reassurance for clients.

  • @floop2935
    @floop2935 Před 4 dny

    I started with VTI! And I will continue investing in VTI! Pick one and go to sleep 😴 📈

  • @rick_vv7754
    @rick_vv7754 Před 4 dny

    There is no set it (retirement plan) and forget it (ignore it) plan that will work. There are no shortcuts and the 4% rule is only a rule of thumb. A good retirement plan needs a good spending (expense) projection based on your anticipated spending needs with inflation adjustments, a projection of your income (SS, Pensions, Annuities and retirement withdrawals), an appropriate asset allocation for your risk tolerance, an appropriate expected return for your assets, a plan for dealing with medical, aging expenses and LTC and a plan for income taxes. Then you need to monitor (spending, investment performance, inflation, etc.) and adjust along the way to make sure that you are on track for your assets to get you through retirement.

  • @LikeAGentlemanPlease

    I thought he was Billy Bob Thornton from Fargo season 1 in the thumbnail.

  • @dougberan5582
    @dougberan5582 Před 4 dny

    Hello. I was wondering if you could please confirm that New Retirement essentially preserves your home equity and does not use it in the cash flow? Does the equity display as an asett on last year if this is correct? I am currently a free user so perhaps a paid subscriber has something different? Thank you very much. I value your videos greatly!