"Where are buyers coming from??" Mark Bouris & Damien Cooley
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- čas přidán 31. 05. 2024
- Damien Cooley returns to Property Insights with Mark Bouris. Damien is one of Sydney's leading real estate auctioneers, and appeared on Amazon Prime's Luxe Listings Sydney. In his third appearance on the show, Cooley shares his latest updates on auction results and more.
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Here are some key ideas discussed in the video:
1. The Sydney real estate market saw a strong 71% auction clearance rate in March despite rising interest rates. Auction volumes were higher than last year.
2. The number of registered bidders at auctions has decreased slightly, which surprises Cooley given that prices have continued rising against expectations.
3. Cooley discusses where high-end buyers ($5-6 million properties) are coming from, including intergenerational wealth transfers, successful local business owners, and overseas investors.
4. Apartment sales are also very strong, with an example given of 9 out of 10 apartments selling over reserve at a recent auction, indicating conservative vendor reserves or a hot market.
5. For building an investment property portfolio, Cooley recommends buying what owner-occupiers buy for stability, with a mix of apartments, houses, and future development sites as budgets allow over time.
6. Cooley shares his views on the booming regional real estate markets of Newcastle, Wollongong and the Central Coast.
While in the long term, saying that "theres only one bondi beach" etc to conclude that prices will only increase is simply economically false. Land prices globally through history have fluctuated through short term business cycles and longer time conditions. There was also only "one wall street" or "one sunset boulevard" in USA in 2007 and by 2013, that land had crashed 50% .... The imperial palace in japan, literally "the only one", was valued in 1989 at more than the entire new york city real estate at the time, and then crashed 80% in 3 years...
Ultimately, its supply and demand. Supply is low for australian real estate, yes...but the side effects of this, whilst good for higher rents and house prices in the short term, are unsustainable in the medium to long term, since less disposable income is used for the rest of the economy, as well as keeping rates elevated, making existing prices fundamentally uneconomical. And with demand, its true that housing in australia is a religion, and the government does everything it can to prop it up, but this is highly reliant on the economic strength of our exports. If this changes, demand will fall, and increasing government influence, whilst likely, will only rescue housing in nominal terms as the aussie dollar bleeds. Thats banana republic territory.
Ultimately, australia now has very very low supply and demand based not on fundamentals, but on short term migration patterns, foreign influence, blind investors and yoloing desperate young folk. When a recession truly hits us, the supply of inventory will begin to rise as investors tap out, foreign buyers take their safe asset hedge away, recent buyers see equity plummet negative and mortgages go into default as unemployment rises. Suddenly, you have higher inventory (supply) and nobody buying. Without expected capital gains, you only are left with regular owner occupiers to buy, and this would occur at the same time the supply of homes for sale is skyrocketting.
This is how housing crashes happen. I havent even mentioned that australias household debt is at levels most economists see as predictors of a looming downturn, or that china, the main driver of this bubble due to trade, is stagnating and bordering on implosion.
All of this is happening with around 2 percent of properties being cash flow positive for new investors, insanely high prices, high interest rates, and a soon to be deteriorating labor market.
The great Australian housing asset bubble has pretty much exhausted itself. Its done.
Either we import immigrants galore, suffer a lower standard of living, have inflation with limited wage increases, to hold up the literal house of cards....or we let it all implode!
Australia doesn't have low housing supply. Per person it's well above average globally. We also have a higher percentage of construction workers and the immigration has a lower proportion. There are many other problems mainly driven by policy that could be changed for immediate effect but that would upset their donors 😢 the poor billionaire's
Excellent comment. Over-leveraged owners are going to feel it in the next 12 months.
The city booms untill the rich are the only buyers.
Then the regions booms FOMO.
Then they reach a debt ceiling.
Then the region stalls. Then the city slows. Then the region fall. Then the city falls. The FONGO sets in. Then the market may flatten or really dive. But it wont rise for a very long time. If the rich overseas investors see opertunity elswear the will get out first.
Realestate in Australia is like buying food with a full belly in front of starving kids.
As a society, we really need to ask the question is it fair that the wealthy, the very rich, and uber rich can continue to get a tax-free gains of anywhere from 1 million to 20 million, when because of declining birth rates and smaller tax base, those who don't own and property probably will never will have to make up the shortfall in tax revenue. Unrealised profit from property should taxed as council rates are. In South Australia, there is a 50% discount on capital gains tax commercial property WTF.
Release more land, makes prices stagnate or fall and greedy hoarders that are land banking will sell.
Stop all foreign ownership of housing, a lot of the money used is proceeds of corruption from their own country being parked here at arm's length from their own government, they get rich and the Aussie battler barely gets ahead nowadays.
We need to slow down the property market and increase investment in advanced manufacturing and modernisation of infrastructure.
Can you define what is 'Rich' 'Wealthy'
I own 3 Properties, am I 'rich' I only earn $120k PA. Should the Government take my property & give it it someone who is worse off than me?
@@andrewkerr5296 If you own the property you have unrealised capital gain for that morethan any other investment sector, the property sector its a distorted market. We are talking about a house that people need to be able to afford to live in. If you do a deep dive to many other countries you will see where Australia heading if property prices keep rising as they are. There needs to be a well overdue correction otherwise wages will need to rise at a rapid pace to keep up with the cost of living. We need to manufacture more in Australia we cannot do that with inflated wages.
By the way nowhere did I suggest taking from you. I was highlighted how you are getting rich of non-property owner' taxpayers. $79,500 is the real average wage. You have done well but things must change going forward.
@@joelG1272
When majority of Australians keep voting for bigger government & more mixed economy Fascism........there won't be a correction
Joel I agree 110%
@@andrewkerr5296 Very True
1/3 of building costs is government taxes/fees. Developer also has to pay for the infrastructure such as roads so costs are obviously passed on to the end consumer. Councils basically run like a ponzi scheme so these master planned communities will pack in as many lots as possible to get the maximum rates possible.
Foreign investment policy needs to be overhauled, they are not the majority of buyers but do have an effect overall.
2/3 of Australians are home owners and trying to introduce any policies that negatively affect property prices will be quite difficult as it works against self interest and that includes poiticians themselves as most have multiple properties.
Due to fear mongering, knee jerk reactions from policticians could potentially further destabilise the property market. Retail investors cop a lot of flack for owning a few properties but they are not the overarching issue, if laws are brought in that restricts the growth or increases the barrier of entry for these investors it will open up a gap for institutional investors/commercial landlords. If you think there's issues now wait till they have a deeper penetration into the market. They are beholden to shareholders and its a very objective environment, pay and comply with conditions or leave. They can set market trends at that point and vacancy is not a major issue for them its just a claimable loss. All it would take is some sweetheart deals for some politicians and its game over. They are pretty damn corrupt already, private corporations run the country already. They use the politicians in their favour and offer them positions and benefits post public life. Australians in general are pretty compliant so this will continue and people will keep getting screwed. Each problem is linked to another issue which makes it difficult to enact effective solutions
CGT is a big hit on those higher valuations. Its easy enough to wear CGT on a $100k profit (and apply the 50% discount) but on a $500k+ it starts to really add up. Unless the owners plan to move in to the property for a year and sell tax free. Canada proposing CGT changes is the writing on the wall that Australia will make changes in the next decade.
I’m sorry. This conversation is absolutely depressing. Particularly the way these men are normalising this situation because hey, they’re ok.
Your mindset is depressing not the interview
They are just a result of the market, nothing more..gleeful businessmen. The root cause of the problem must be addressed - government inaction and poor policy, high immigration and foreign investment policies driving up demand.
Nothing wrong with it, is what it is, buckle up and do something about it then bud
@@rileymanaarikicecil8736 You must feel so satisfied with yourself, spouting trite little dictums like “it is what it is”. What a contribution! So original.
Remove the tax incentives, and most of these guys would disappear.
It will keep going up until the next GFC, which is just around the corner. I can bet you though, that none of these "experts" will be around to provide any advice to those who were just too foolish to buy into the hype. I just hope I'm still around to see this house of cards collapse, and you never know, but this society may just have a chance of becoming normal once again. If not us, then perhaps our children and grandchildren get to live normal lives.
Yep. The thing about a big crash, is they don't see the wall coming!
How many foreigners are buying property near Police Stations, Army Bases and Government Offices?
Everyone in Australia needs to get into a real estate career, no matter your training or passion.
If you're a surgeon, quit, and become a buyers agents.
If you're an airline pilot, quit, and become a mortgage broker.
If you're a FIFO miner, quit, and become a real estate agent.
There's just so much $$ in real estate.
Real estate and brokers etc are on way out as AI and Banks replace their services
@leonie563 Mostly is just showing up looking good that is all agents do along with filling paperwork.
More people should be encouraged to sell a property themselves.
Do not need someone to sell a used car and the same logic can be used for real estate.
@@leonie563 You would think so, but try to negotiate a better than 2.8% commission for a house that sells itself!
That's an easy 25K plus for a typical house in Brisbane. No wonder agents are skipping the Benz C250 and going straight to the G63S models.
A couple years of soaring house prices and now everyone thinks the party will never end. How quickly people forget the lessons of history.
@@user-gk7wg4rm4i In a sense, that's quite true. Although this time really does seem different. It looks like houses prices are now locked on to a locomotive, unstoppable in its move upwards.
The entire sense of feeling and expectation of the entire country has fundamentally changed.
It doesn't matter who I talk to, and from what walk of life, all expect property prices to forever rise.
Is this podcast on Spotify?
just on CZcams & the Y Home Loans app for now
@@yellowbrickroadtv is there any good reasons why it isn’t on Spotify? The majority of your target audience just want to listen to this on Spotify like every other podcast…
There is a lot of land for sale with no building permits allowed. Northern NSW is particularly bad with its arcane subdivision laws. Councils must allow development. It’s ludicrous that only big developers can “buy” these permits. Not everyone wants to live in an estate 😡
Plenty of affordable housing in Queensland why people only focus on overpriced overpopulated cities then complain ill never know
Is it because everyone wants to buy homes to rent them out? Investing into homes is like buying into the stock market when the stocks you are purchasing are at all time highs, there needs to be new laws that is going to make investing in homes not an ideal investment to deter everyone from wanting to be landlords. Most people just want to live in a normal sized home not create their own monopoly of rental properties.
Generational wealth for sure is the majority
We just bought a $4m house in North Shore Sydney. We did it by selling our previous PPOR and selling our investment property.
We didn’t have a handout or use bank of mum and dad.
Has anyone thought that those young people buying mega million dollar homes are just a bit crazy????
Overseas buyers are minimal and generally not allowed. So that’s a bogus argument. When Bouris who is a lender is wondering where all this money is coming from we know things are in a strange situation.
Where the heck is everyone getting there money?
I keep hearing of this cost of living crisis. It's all garbage. There isn't one!
There is a cost of living crisis for Working Age population. But Retirees and foreign investors are swarming. Lots of foreign money and retirees blowing their superannuation going on. Keating should have planned the legislation better because even if $1trillion is sloshing around in coming years, it's going to slap the economy hard.
What a sad life some of these old people lived. Spending their life paying off home loan and never getting to spend any of their wealth because it was all tied up in an oversized home with high maintenance costs which they owned until they died. Our elderly are a sad, sick, scared bunch of hoarders just waiting to die. Pathetic.
STOP MIGRATION UNTIL CONSTRUCTION OF HOUSES CATCHES UP !! I dare you to do a video on this and why government isn’t looking at
Prices are NOT climbing in Melbourne. It’s a lie because I monitor Domain sales with my own eyes and see the majority are price updates 5-10% LESS!! Then the property sells with no price listed (aka bad price). The real estate industry is lying!!
Why the analysis of Australia's population at present? It has always been the same. Give up on real estate and let the market sort it out! What we need urgently, is more public housing! No talk of affordable housing, people cannot afford to eat properly!
The market isn’t so hot in Melbourne that’s for sure
Sure but anyone who bought a house there 5-10 years ago has probably done reasonably well.
Don't lie , i know many people who are from abroad, and they are the people pushing up prices, same here in Melbourne.
Boomers downsizing is insane right now.. hence why the villa/townhouse market going nuts
Why I cashed out to downsize super early. Never gonna get the crazy prices once the boomers flood the market with their big houses.
Real estate agents, property developers, auctioneers etc are cheering up expensive house prices 24/7 which is a total shame. But in real terms market is fucked up. Market is rigged by Syndicates . Young Australian are struggling to buy property. Rich suburbs like eastern suburbs don't represent Australian market. There is not enough supply of property in the market. Gov should supply more property in the market, ban overseas buyers, abolish negative gearing etc to fix the market. Mark and Damien are not talking about how to fix the market. The discussion is a total garbage and it wouldn't help the market or gov to function the market better. Crisis has been made artificially by property developers/builders. Disgusting.
Allowing wealthy individuals to battle over property resembles a game of Monopoly where the richest players monopolize all the prime real estate, leaving others struggling to buy even a simple property on the board.
As long as you’re able to auction residential homes & use auction & sale by negotiation sales practices, prices will continue to increase, being bumped up by wealthy international investors & wealthy Australian’s because there’s no limitations. It only takes 2 bidders to set a price precedence in a street or suburb. (Watch the block) Government needs to legislate & outlaw these practices, but they won’t, so we’re all paying for it. The market’s driven by greed in the higher end of the market filtering down to the lower end of the market. Short sighted government thinking, gouging everybody with excessive housing rates & forcing lender’s to lend against over valued property. We haven’t learnt anything from previous market crashes. It's similar to a race where the wealthiest sprinters have access to faster cars and smoother tracks, leaving everyone else lagging behind and unable to compete on a level playing field. How dare they gamble with Australian’s security & not review the foreign investment policies. Welcome to the lucky country 🙄
"You want more affordability you need to go further out."
Simple concept but so many people just don't get it though.
700k isn't affordable for the average Australian.
Even if you go further out it's not affordable. What is your concept of affordable?
Byron prices dropped
A minuscule amount relative to the gains over last 5-10 years I imagine.
@@JohnSmith-cu8yc Agreed.
I’m only commenting from a recent visit ( approx 2 months ago now ), that may have changed and chatting to agents in Newry Bar
House on Main Street there they were willing to sell a lot lower than last purchase price.
Another acreage property similar.
Each area seems different.,,,Brisbane strong .
U
I don't agree with first part. I have never seen in 40 plus years of real estate stock levels so low. 90% of buyers inspecting are AsiAn. Domains market is more inner city with a highly density population. I think you should look at what my market is actually doing to Aussie buyers
I garentee that most of those "Asians" are actually Australian's
I have just sold our terrace in Paddington NSW and not a single Asian came through.
I then looked Sydney CBD, Pyrmont, Barangaroo, Woolloomooloo, Elizabeth Bay, Milsons Point and Double Bay.
The only place I came across Asians was Barangaroo and one at Milsons Point.
Don’t see where this “they are all being snapped up by Asians” is coming from.
Not only that, if they are Asian, they are probably permanent residents that have gone to University here, have been here for more than a decade and have paid there dues.
I'd put my money on the fact that foreign investors would be buying up. this idea that a younger generation would purchase a 1m house plus with ease is a joke. Maybe some people are blessed that way and good on them but the whole housing market as a whole is gotta be rising from foreign investors
You can’t afford to buy property because you are wasteful and you end up broke every week. Don’t blame on foreign investors
@Elonmusk898 i have two properties.
The point I'm trying to make is this, Australians in the middle to lower class can't afford to buy because of the current housing shortage, which is due to working middle class from overseas aka(the rest of the world )
Moving to Australia to find work and a comfortable way of living. If they're rich overseas, they're rich here also.
What's happened is the flood gates have been opened and all locals and especially the younger generation suffer for that.
Haha , Mark our common man, “I’ve got a property here somewhere”. You are the problem.
The problem is, the Average Australian suffers from Entitlement & want's 'The other' to pay for it
What are you on about ?
@@garyalexander2480
He/She is jealous
Typical of the average Australian who suffers from Tall Poppy Syndrome
I’m 30 years old. For years I blamed the system, the banks, the investors, the boomer generation, foreigners for why I didn’t own a house. One day I realised i couldn’t blame anyone but myself. I hadn’t learnt the rules of money, I hadn’t saved to invest. We need to stop thinking everyone else is the problem and take responsibility for where we are in life. The government has far less impact on your life than you do. Make a plan and start building for the future. Most people overestimate what they can achieve in a year but underestimate what they can achieve in a decade. In 10 years you can be far closer to achieving your goals if you start today and don’t wait for the government or the coming collapse to make buying property easier. Yes life is hard and expensive. Life in the 20’s or 40’s wasn’t much fun either. I’d rather we renting than in the trenches of WW1 for example. Every generation has something to complain about. Start today. You will be amazed what you can achieve. I highly recommend a book called the Richest Man In Babylon.
@@stuart249 that’s the spirit