How Planning to Fail Leads to Success: The Basics of Using a PreMortem
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- čas přidán 6. 11. 2019
- The PreMortem is a cognitive tool developed by research psychologist Dr. Gary Klein. Using the tool during plan can help reduce errors created by overconfidence. Also referred to as Pre Mortem or Pre-Mortem, this tool came out of the Naturalistic Decision Making (NDM) community.
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some reasons I can think of why the plan failed is because ... a. one of the team members got sick and there is no medicine to mitigate his sickness .... b. the weather suddently turned unpredictable and there is not enough backup and contingency planned
1. Injury and other illness 2. Literal physical roadblocks 3. Different physical aptitudes, ie. Someone became tired and the pace had to be changed
Things I read that I didn't think of
Weather
Wild animals
Lost items
1. The temperature was below what we could handle.
2. We did not have the required supplies.
3. We did not know our way.
4. We got separated.
5. We did not learn from other's failures and we succumb to such failures.
6. One of us had a broken leg.
7. One of us got slipped from the rock.
8. Our tools got broke.
9. The way frozen.
Excellent idea 💡
Thank you!
Yes true overconfidence put always nervous and anxious
why the plan failed: 1.they walked too slow. 2. there was an emergency such as a wild animal, or injury. 3. they lost something and had to backtrack. 4.
Plan could have failed because it's daylight savings and sunrise is at 5:30am, so if they left at 4am, 1.5 hours is not enough time to make it to the top.
Premortem is only one thing that fixes the direction in advance
Didn't wake up on time. 4am starts are no joke.
True. I know I’d consider the snooze button.
Was hungover
Caffeine withdrawal headaches causes everyone to turn back. Pack caffeine pills.
Returns after a year....seems to be happening a lot
failed because I wanted them to...
Injury
Bears.
Reason for failure:
We didn’t put on our shoes. So we never got out the base camp “door” and slept in.
Solution:
Get shoes on first.
Sleep with shoes on.
1. We didn't take care of the animals....
Instead of driving to the parking, just drive to montains 🤓
And how do you have physical activities then ¿