BIG MISTAKE!? - How to WIN at POKER in 2024 PART 5
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- čas přidán 22. 05. 2024
- We're back with the controversial final hand as I breakdown my reasoning behind going against the GTO play.
0:00 Intro
0:25 Preflop
1:15 Limping Heads Up?
1:40 Flop
3:20 Bet-Fold AK?
4:10 Turn
6:20 No Club
7:40 River Trouble
8:20 Value Bet or Bluff?
9:30 Avoiding a Big Mistake
10:50 Equity Denial
12:00 Diverting from GTO
12:40 Solver says
14:00 River
15:00 Conclusion
Follow Me, Daniel Negreanu, Online Here:
linktr.ee/dnegspoker
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"I don't want to risk losing money on the river, so I risk all my money on the turn"
Classic Dnegs strat right there. Always love Daniels awkward winning monologues too.
He spent the whole video that the point is to deny equity on the many many draws his opponent would semi bluff with.
hawkward
Tell me you have ticktock videos attention span without telling me you have ticktock videos attention span
"I don't know what I'm doing on the turn; I said fuck it. If you got a jack, take my money."
Wearing a Fry shirt with no watermark would be epic at a poker table.
Hi Daniel, i just wanted to say thank you for doing what you do, you are a great ambassador for the game we all love. Take care buddy.
“Okay what now? Give me some money.” Gotta love Dnegs lol
I appreciate the hand breakdowns. Would love to see you break that down if you lost though. Can we get some more hand breakdowns when you make a mistake and talk about what you should have done differently?
He'd say the exact same thing if he lost. The way he was talking about it i thought he did lose the hand..makes no difference to the thought process of the play.
@@jakebaldwin7172 I knew a queen was coming at some point, because he started off the video by saying it’s the last hand of the tournament. Or it’s at least strongly implied that this is the case.
That said, you’re right.
He did make a mistake here. He just got very lucky on the river with single digit % to win
@@funnydonor9484 What would the correct play have been, and why?
I remember watching that game and seeing how many good folds you had.
I’ve followed you from the beginning D! I won the first all Newfoundland NLH tournament wayyyyyyy back in 2006! 4 gals, 80 guys. Everyone asked me when I won who my influence was and well……. 😂❤😂❤😂 🐐
When I first saw the play, my initial thought was, "There's no way that can be right." Then, after hearing your thought process and, specifically, that you ruled out Tx due to the large bet size, I think I'm on board. He's setting up for a river jam and on any card 6-9 or non-Q club, you probably have to fold, especially when you start considering he could be bluffing with a hand that's beating yours. Obviously he has 3 Jacks and isn't bluffing but, as you said, that's pretty much the only value he has after the size of the turn bet.
Great content, as usual!! Beautiful river hehehe
Very interesting to see your breakdown of the thought process...... definitely not a punt, and making the wrong decision is actually a right decision.
Analysis always on point.
Trying to excuse yourself for that bad call you did? -you are wrong, that's a bad call-thanks for
the blogs,I love them,you are the man!!!
But, it's not a bad call. It's only a bad call if you knew your opponent's exact hand which he does not. The only questionable part of the play was the decision to call the turn or jam. Without running it through a solver, I'm guessing the EV of each decision is probably pretty close.
thats some online poker turn
too real...
yeah, that is it. just like GGpoker
Nice 2 hear ur thoughts about how you played it based on what you think he could have. And you explain it in a way we normal people understand 😅.
If you were in smileys position what do you call with? I wonder if he could muck a 10?
The internet poker superstars are out to play again D Negs, thanks for all the content legend!
The key lesson I would have taken from this is the need to raise correctly with a good hand no matter what in order to avoid certain hands like a J 2 getting an upper hand out of pure luck. If you raised in that case it also allows you to narrow down the range if they do call.
If you always raise your good hands here, your opponent can very easily bluff you when you limp. And as Daniel explained somewhere in the previous parts, the BB-ante system makes it so you want to limp A LOT heads-up on the button. You have to limp a lot of strong hands to be able to limp your trash too.
@@ZanttuXD Daniel is definitely over-trapping here for "balance" and not over-raising. Humans always overestimate how much they need to "balance" their range with these trappy plays.
It's wild how many people commenting on a poker video have very little understanding of the basics in 2024.
Daniel: 10 minute explanation on why his turn play was a great play and well thought out and he was never folding here.
Also Daniel @ 14:14 "I don't know what I'm doing on the turn I was like fuck it"
Nice to know im not the only one with these thoughts going thru my head.
Hey I had the same result with an inside straight draw jam on the turn but I knew it was a bluff. I was up against a set which is more hidden than a paired board staring me in the face. We both made EV- plays and we both sucked out. Nothing to brag about. Just pure beat-the-odds luck. Ok so my opponent wasn't a maniacal bluffer.
12:00 Daniel is describing information asymmetry. The most extreme version of this would be Daniel accidentally exposes his hand. In that case, call is the worst option.
Daniel is the Goat! Thank you for all that you do. Been a fan of yours since the early 2000's.
Genio ❤
So much about this hand. Preflop standart. Post flop another story. Daniel could check or bet i lean towards check because you get raised here about 1/5 and you are in the spot where you can call but you will most of the times cry on the river against good regs. When you check you can go to showdown you can call probes you have good showdown hand in overal. Raise from other player is standart but turn sizing is crazy you should bet 50% pot at most but more prefered sizing would be 25% because what worst hands calls yours close to pot sizing. On the turn it's clear fold or call for daniel because if you think he is bluffing then you just bluff catch with the A high and let him bluff tripple. I lean towards the fold because you need balls to call triple barel in this type of board and you don't have the odds for call of course sometimes oponent will stop on the river but with this sizing very rearly. If you jam on this spot you isolating yourself against stronger range and he just calls you with the nuts and you never get aditional value. That snap call from oponent is also questionable because from his view he just ripped almost pot on the kind of dryish board and got check raised. How many bluffs would be here if any? You basicly beating only few combos of value mainly pocket QQ+ witch going to call more often then raise and you lose angaist every JX on this board oponent should never play TX this way so it's a rearly bluff with good equity or just value.
Have you considered who Daniel is playing and how he has played hands in the past?
@@connordungan9792 no reg at that level will go nuts on this spot so no. I just play these spots hundreds of times a month witch typicly don't hapen to mtt regs that often
Lucky Donk as usual😊
I kind of laugh that Daniel always seems to call out what his opponent has before he sees it.
Yo Dnegs.
If you know the call is the absolute correct play why go all in? I agree that you there’s no way you fold, but going all in makes zero sense to me. Online poker vibes and just playing your luck imo. Congratulations on the win, and thanks for sharing your thoughts!
he literally spent the whole video explaining the exact question you just asked ?
Why does the solver say it's better to call in the turn? Like what is the logic behind that makes it a better ev then going all in?
Because AK is in front of his bluffs on the turn, and if AK jams it would get called by better hands and folds the bluffs,but by calling the turn you let him bluff the river and sometimes he will give up some bluff and can win at showdown. Or you hit the mamacita and win regardless 😁
@@aritonalex3087 thanks, i still don't really get it though. You call to keep his bluffs in and let him bluff the river, but do you even want him to bluff the river? You will have a bluff catcher and from my limited understanding the ev of calling should theorethically be similar to folding (0 ev)
@@michael3829kkao if you go all in on turn you can't call the bluff on the river, and he won't call with his bluff on the turn
@@michael3829kkao You want him to bluff, but if he does, you’re in a tough spot because you don’t even beat all his bluffs, so on some rivers you call down and on other rivers you don’t. Which rivers? The solver knows, but you don’t, unless you’ve run all the rivers in a solver, and why on earth would you have done that? So do you call the turn and take a guess on the river (which, if you get it wrong, could cost you many bbs of EV)? Or do you jam the turn (which you know for certain costs you
@@tomb4540 I think that's a very good explanation. The positive EV comes from If they are bluffing and you are solver that plays perfect on the river it's better to call and get more out of them when they continue to bluff.
If they are bluffing you don't get any extra value from going all in.
Por que os caras do pôquer não são legais com Daniel? É apenas pôquer e aposto que a maioria deles já têm o ideal para viver.
This guy looks like illari fin
I don’t understand how all of these commenters are so confident that the Q hit was pure luck, but think Smiljkovic didn’t get lucky to flop trips.
Dneg’s line does not lose 91% of the time, because Smiljkovic doesn’t have a J 100% of the time.
You can’t credit for the jack unless you’re also giving credit for the queen.
Interesting play by both players- I would imagine it would be hard to not go all in with trips but you have to consider is a 10 on the board for the potential straight. Your opponents range easily includes AK,AQ, KQ. Also AJ, KJ, QJ and really any other card paired with J is a possibility. I think both players did well but ultimately luck was on Daniel’s side and his opponent put his tournament life on the line by shoving all in and he lost.
There is no potential straight on the turn. Heads up a J is basically the nuts. Daniel made a play hoping that his opponent was representing a J he didn’t have he was wrong but got bailed out. Opponent played it perfectly and just got 4 outed
@@dominicmarino5855 there is a straight draw on the flop and turn. While I do believe luck was on Daniel’s side, the other guy called an all in with the straight draw out there. He put his tournament on the line with this hand and lost.
A worthy opponent.
8:00 Being the chip leader shouldn't matter heads up...? If I were talking to my GF I would say this with confidence, but Daniel knows his stuff, obviously.
It’s just so funny to me reading these comments as if these “crushers” have even a remotely close idea of how high level all of your decisions are.
I am still trying to understand how a play that will work less than 1 in 10 times is high level.
@@mariuspanaitescu7352 Poker is played with the opponent's cards face down. Hope this helps!
Plus you knew the queen is also coming 😂😂
Ya that was a bad call. But it paid off
Coping hard 😂
Still don't get it. After his spill in being better this year this hand made it seem like another 3 mil loss year. He calls he raises with a pair on the board so Dnegs with a big chip lead and only a draw goes all in. Guess that's why i gave up on poker . Never that lucky.
Nice win bro, let the haters brine in their own salt
Just can’t have this explanation.
lieutenant dan deserves to get lucky sometimes.
bottom line you got lucky.
@@westcoast8562 This comes from someone who types in caps looking for daddy Daniel‘s attention. You are the clear definition of a simp.
gg bro
This definitely seems close enough that I wouldn't be highly critical of either shove or call. I also think spots like these are more about exploits than GTO. No player can be perfectly balanced with ranges this wide. There's too many value combos and too many potential bluffs. It's all just down to whether you think they're more inclined to over-bluff or under-bluff. My experience is that under-bluffing is way more common, probably even among top pros (who will merely be closer to balanced), but there are definitely exceptions.
WAIT…. 🛑 Daniel… I do recall watching this heads up match live… However, until Part 5 of your “How To Win in 2024” video series it did not occur to me until this video that you got it in behind (with exactly 4 outs) and then got EXTREMELY lucky on the river against a tournament crusher who is not going to give up the chip lead (again) if the Queen does not save you… Thus, your entire video series is predicated upon you getting lucky…. I have a lot of respect for you Daniel; however this is not what we want to be teaching people…
- LAMBO
I was wondering if this video would still exist if the river wasn't a Queen :)
Not the correct way to think about this... you could say the opponent got "lucky" by flopping trips when Daniel had a hand that had to continue. Suppose he had something like Q9 instead, and he played it the same exact way. Then you could say Daniel got "lucky" shoving his AK against the bluff. What matters is the entire range, not the specific hand.
You got rewarded for solid play ❤congrats 🎉
tooooo much echo, hard to hear you, get closer to mic!
How To Win At Poker In 2024:
Step I: Have An Unlimited Bankroll So You Can Re-Enter To Infinity And Make Plays Necessary To Chip Up
Step II: Get Your Money In Insanely Bad For All The Cheddar And Hit Your 4-Outer
Step III: Create A 5-Part Monetized Video Series That Culminates With You Hitting A 4-Outer That Racks Up The Views
Forgot Step 0: Lose 2.2 Million In The Previous Year But Have Sponsors And People Buying Your Action So You Still Profit
That’s pretty accurate 👍
This video makes me understand why Daniel is where he is and why I'm playing micro. I'd definitely have folded there without thinking twice. But amazing understanding the thinking behind it.
Very lucky.
even if there was no queen on the river, I would back the 🐐with 8M vs 2M
What's a big blind nanny?
"I win. Cool!" lol
bad allin good river , thats all
If you don't know how a guy is going to play doesn't that mean you should stick with the normal play and not deviate?
Only if you can play "normal" on the river. And Daniel's point is that basically no one could match GTO play on this river.
Clean your camera bro. 😆
0:05 did you read?
Heil The Almighty Daniel Zionegreanu 🫡
Credit goes to the other guy making you think he was bluffing. He obviously aware that you knew he was a loose aggressive player so made it look like a bluff
I would’ve loved to see what his reaction would be if the tables were turned
He would have taken it just like the other guy . Havent you seen how many times Daniel gets sucked out on with the best hand in the last few years ?? He was due for his own suckout . Its called variance. BOOOOM
Notice me senpai
Why are you running a video over and over on a tournament a while back?
why is being the chip leader relevant there, theres no icm?
moral of the story be lucky like daniel
Ỷeah. Play bad and suckout. Agress player caught you. You played bad every street. Got almost all your chips to the middle with only one card left to come. Only like 9% to win. And sụckout.
@@deankoenig6438cry about it CZcams “pro”
@@westcoast8562 Tell us how it feels to be a professional ball licker of a man you don’t even know….
Better yet never mind.
Say what you want bro. Lol . But you got lucky. 😂
That's why he literally said that he got lucky
Runs a series of how to win when he's lost millions year over year. Good timing bro.c
Luck box😂😂😂😂
Sorry man, that was luck...
jesus man, get someone to help you with lighting and sound. just a tip
Personally, I would never limp ace king heads up. If you miss the flop and your opponent reraises, you put yourself in a tough position that could be very costly, because you can't fold. In my opinion, after the turn bet, a ten, jack, pocket pair, straight draw with a flush draw, or bluff is more likely than a naked flush draw. If your read was a straight draw with a flush draw, or pure bluff I can't criticize the turn shove to avoid a bad river fold. But you did the opposite with your checks against Helmuth on the first duel when you had a chance to finish him off, and the check against Foxen on the second last hand which you eventually won. You weren't going to fold if Foxen or Helmuth shoved the river, so you put yourself in position to make the least if you had the best hand and lose the most if you didn't.
@@westcoast8562 great analysis 🤣
@@westcoast8562 yep when you miss the flop and turn with A K no way of avoiding being stacked 9 times out of 10 🤣. Yep getting stacked with a bluff catcher can't be avoided. And I'm the one making a terrible assessment of Dneggs play. 🤣
so make a terrible play then hope u get lucky got it
Not a bad intense but I would feel ashamed winning that way Daniel
Luck game
Negreaneau gets check raised big on flop, and then smiljovic contines to leads huge on turn (1.3 into 1.5 mill) super strong line and at this point hes put in 40% of his stack, yet dnegs still jams with almost no fold equity, now claiming it was a value bet and he was attemtping to deny equity is laughable. Just own it and admit u totally misred your opponent and your punt worked out.
So his opponent couldn’t be bluffing? You clearly don’t know how how high level poker works
@erreira2632 his opponent could be bluffing but to be a positive EV his opponent has to be bluffing big a lot. Even if his opponent had a 10, Daniel has only 10 outs. That's a 21.74% chance to win. And on the turn he put in 3.8 million to win 9.2 million. That's 41.3% of the pot and all he has is a bluff catcher with an inside draw.
@@frederickdaroza4963well unless his opponent is playing highly unorthodox he never has a 10, obviously one would like fold equity with your shove , but he is ahead of all draws with only one card to go. Villains line is either a Jack or a draw. That’s it. I personally would have let it go , I think k it’s a negative play , but I don’t think it’s a punt at all.
@@Womenandwine I never said it was a punt, but it wasn't positive EV because his opponent would need to be bluffing/semi bluffing a boat load for it to be positive. And since it is negative EV he can fold. Even by Daniels own explanation his opponent has a J or flush draw. When you have A K only, your opponent often has 15 outs with a naked flush draw, and Daniel is being crushed if his opponent has a J. This claim by some that he played it perfectly and there was no way he could avoid being stacked (less the miracle Q river) is ridiculous. This isn't a cooler.
@@frederickdaroza4963 fair enough
Should Smiljkovic even call your all in with J2,
He's not beating any of your value bets and all of your bluffs have reasonable equity against him
You made that out to be more complex than needed. The only reason he did what he did was because he had trips. You got lucky on the river. The best thing to do is to not overcomplicate and keep things simple.
How to win at poker in 2024 - don´t play online
Luck
And *that’s* why you don’t play J-rags.
Negreanu, dacă nu-ți place pokerul, nu mai scrie cărți de poker...
How to win, you need to have money 😉
the turn play is atrocious (yes you can fold) and the explanation not very convincing, but anyway I appreciate the frankness and the exposure from Daniel, he doesn't need it and not many players do.
What solver tells you to fold?
Delusional, simply delusional. You managed to get in 45 BB with no pair, shitty draw, an epic blowup that was ultimately rewarded by the luckiest river card of all times lmao
When you get check-raised on JJT, OF COURSE you should fold any no-pair hand! That's why you shouldnt bet AK on the flop in the first place, because a check-raise will force you to give up.
And after you make a bad, bad flop call, OF COURSE you have to fold against any further aggression on the turn.
The turn All-In is nothing short of a Zynga Poker player's move lol
Also I wonder if there would have been a video about this hand in the 90%+ cases in which no river miracle happens... 🙄
Is that you smiley ??
keep doing this and you loose 91% of times
If I could win massive pots making bad plays as a 9 to 1 dog I could win in 2024 too.
Hope you're ready for an ungodly shitstorm
What do you mean? 1 out of 9 times you'll win. It's nothing absurd.
In this particular situation, if the dude had 63o and DN folded you'd be saying the opposite of what you said.
So basically you didnt listen to anything he said?
@harel251 A terrible play his ego is continuing to justify. There is a reason dude lost 2 million in tournies in 2023.
Dont think you saw how often Dnegs got it in good last year and lost lol
Long video to say he was totally owning you in that hand but you ran lucky on the 9% river nothing more nothing less bro u ran lucky end of story🤷♂️ love your content but call a cat a cat
The point of the series is to be instructive and explain his thought process if that was your takeaway from the video then you missed out
I'm a big fan of yours but feel this video is disingenuous and possibly causing more harm than good to a person's game as this was won out of pure luck on the river. Stick to giving people advice the right way through simplicity in what you actually do instead of complicated thought processes which are unnecessary and detrimental to the outcomes.
How to win at poker in 2024?? By MISTAKE!!
8:15