🚨 WILL PAKISTAN DEFAULT: 2 Trillion PKR Capacity Payments Destroying Pakistan? | Special Episode
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- čas přidán 21. 07. 2024
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REPORTS ON PAKISTAN’S IPP SECTOR: drive.google.com/drive/folder...
Adeel Malik’s paper on Pakistan’s changing political climate: muse.jhu.edu/article/930428
Hello folks! Welcome to our first-ever online "Dil ki Baat" with Mr. Javed Hassan. Tonight, we dive deep into the state of the economy, rising poverty, and the impact of the new government budget. We'll also discuss the electricity issue, tax compliance, potential solutions for the energy crisis, what the future holds for Pakistan and more.
Do not forget to subscribe and press the bell icon to catch on to some amazing conversations coming your way!
#thoughtbehindthings #muzamilhasan #economy #default #taxbudget
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• Spotify: spoti.fi/3z1cE7F
• Google Podcast: bit.ly/2S84VEd
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00:00 Introduction
01:46 Current State of the Economy
02:50 Rising Poverty: One Event Away?
03:36 Why Economic Decline Was Expected
05:42 Post-Budget Economic Outlook
11:18 Tax Compliance: Will People Pay?
15:15 Electricity Problem & Capacity Payments Explained
21:45 How Other Countries Provide Cheaper Electricity
25:18 Take or Pay Contracts
26:18 The Report: Key Findings
29:50 Revisiting the Energy Problem
31:12 Potential Solutions for Energy Crisis
35:35 Two Ways to Reduce Capacity Payments
36:06 Default: Consequences and Prevention
41:24 The Snowballing Effect on the Economy
42:10 Impact of Reprofiling on Pakistan
44:53 What the Bankers Are Saying
47:22 Debt Restructuring & Cost Reduction
50:40 Local Debt: Commercial Bank Debt
53:22 Expected Outcomes & Necessary Actions
58:52 Is the Future Dark for Pakistan?
1:03:56 Final Thoughts
Debt slavery is how corrupt nations are enslaved.
In Chinese To Say Thank You, You Have to say , Xiexie 😊
Politicians, high ranking army officials and their close family members cannot have dual citizenship...after retirement they cannot settle outside pakistan..
This is the only thing that needs to be done and pakistan will be like london in 5 years...
And make Virat Kohli PM of Pakistan 😂
Well, that's a very delusional idea...since not all rich people leave Pakistan they live very comfortably here in their gated communities, those gated communities look nothing like the typical Pakistan that majority of Pakistanis are living in!
Digital podcast was great. Just a personal suggestion. Ask your guests to use high quality mic like BOYA, and to keep it as close as possible to the mouth so that the audio is clear. In podcasts video isn't that much important as audio. So try to improve the audio quality so that the listeners don't get irritated and don't leave the video and move on.
Nothing will change until political stability is in the country this is the first step.
Also, thank you for not letting the distance coming in the way of you inviting your favourite guests, this discussion was perfect as it is, and we hope to see more of digitally present guests like this!
urdu please
I see a trend with our elderly guests . They spend a good amount of time talking about how we got into this mess, explaining history and their analysis of it in great detail. Extremely few give practical / applicable solutions for how the situation at hand can be improved
solution is very simple. We all know the solution. Kick out corruption from the society at every level. Everything will be alright
@ajkacolumn honest people are very capable of making poor / disastrous policy decisions. What is needed is brave and drastic policy decisions and then sticking to them. Also it is very easy to say "end corruption" ...works as a slogan BUT what are the practical steps to do that? Are u addressing the socio-economic factors that feed the corruption culture, which btw permeates all levels of society? As always the devil is in the details and much needed policy decisions are the starting point.
listen the recent podcast of Shabbar zaidi
He's giving practical solutions as well
Those who were able to get out of this country, they are out, but not all of us can leave and these conditions, inflations, high electricity bills , unaffordable groceries and stuff is making our lives miserable. Am i only here to work my ass off to pay my bills and get nothing in return? No freaking security in karachi, no freaking roads for a proper commute. Most importantly, trash everywhere, why is my city never improving? Why no one is holding sindh govt and administration accountable? Are we karachites not part of the Pakistan? I feel how Balochistan people must be feeling, i feel how it feels to be ignored by the people in power and i hate it. Wish i could unite us all and take a stand for our lives but i cant. If you have a platform use it wisely, you will be held accountable someday for this responsibility.
Power plants follow the model of capacity payment plus fuel charges in power purchase agreement globally. The utilities therefore use mix of base load power plants ( based on this model) plus peak load power plants to meet the additional variable load . This ensures full load on base load plants and avoiding TOP ( take or pay ) payments. This kind of electricity charges is not only due to faulty planning but due to corruption and lack of proficiency in the job.
Pakistan is stuck in a Hamster wheel from all the aspects, He's right that soon Pakistan can go Default if this practice continues
If Pakistan declares bankruptcy chapter 11, they can get out of these IPP contracts
Everyone is talking about debt. Can someone give exact figures how much Chinese debt Pakistan has accumulated in past 10 years in the name of CPEC which has probably busted Pakistan finances?
You will be put in jail just like imran khan
@@mayanksharma1491😂😂😂😂 exactly.
Cpec is a part of BRI china is investing in more than 100 countries not only in pakistan.... Its called FDI which is good for economy the main reason is pak GDP has not shown any significant growth from 2018 when our gdp was $358 billion in 2024 evem after 6 years our gdp is hardly $420-430 billion... Which sooo less growth for developing countries like pakistan..if GDP grew so the debt to gdp ratio would also decrease... Pak debt is only increasing while gdp is just stagnant...this is the biggest problem of pak..
@@user-kn3gc6wn7h Its 90% loans from china to pakistan. 67billion dollar is a chinese loan to Pakistan as per economic times. It is not FDI
Just a request, kindly invite Irfan Malik on your pod cast. A lesson learned for all those Fastian locally and abroad who are unable to make any difference for Pakistan.
How can you expect an illegitimate government to do something better for Pakistan ?
India has created its own power… and always strived for self sufficiency. Our power sector is not only privatised but also diversified …
GDP per capita of pakistan -1707 $ nominal (2024)
GDP per capita of India - 2731 $ nominal (2924)
how these are equal
aise he kuch mat bola karo
You're incorrect , 2731 is IMF data and for Pak there is no data in IMF records
FYI World Bank 2023
India PCI - 2484
Pak PCI - 1407
You're right, there is no comparison between Pakistan and india.
Hi Muzammil, Loved your content!
Just a quick suggestion: While I understand that you are trying to digitalize this and shifting the model to e-meet. It would be better to have the speaker in the studio just to ensure better audio and video quality.
Pakistanis have forgotten their old and post indepence history . The have never earned money they have received money from America as donations in last 65 years only in last 10 yrs America has stopped giving funds and see the condition . Pakistan does not have any option except have good relation with India and cut off its military
for this type of podcast why can not guest use better audio mic and merge audio latter on
I just love listening to Javed sir. He explains it so well
Pakistan was made to default, so that it could exist as a compliant client state. Allah has decided the fate of Pakistan
Good discussion 😃 I am 34 and work in Dubai. It's very helpful for me to make my future money related investment decisions.
we want to see mifta ismail,s insight on this budget
Hi Muzammil,
Can you please share the links of the sites where mentioned finanace reports are published if you can then please share all the links for such analysis which you & your team utilize for information gathering.
I see you have shared the drive link with the reports thanks for it.
Sir mostly I receive these reports from sources within the government or academia. I’m not sure if they’re published anywhere online.
Since IPP capacity payments are suffocating Pakistan, should there be a Truth and Justice Commission to fix responsibility?
Watching this video fills my heart with sorrow and a relentless heaviness.
In next few months, foreign remittances by Paakistani shall flow into the country only to thr extent of survival of their family members. Any excess amount parked in Pak banks shall wipe out in the event of bankruptcy.
Well explained by this gentleman ❤ Mr. Javed
Do a podcast with sahil adeem plz
How to get like minded people (influencers, youtubers, journalists, experts, celebrities) to align their efforts and come up with a manifesto focussed on key (economic) issues? Are these like-minded people willing to be in the government? I have a few ideas on how to start this... A man can dream.
Well done Muzammil. Awesome work honestly.
Muzamil bhi you are doing very good work telling the people Truth ❤ you are the Gem 💎
The problem with Pakistan is it never does things itself. Whether it be power plants or roads or railways. I don't understand why there isn't any significant public-private partnership in Pakistan. Why did they gave sovereign guarantee to IPPs? Normally in any developing nation, the problem is not having enough power. Like in India, the energy consumption is increasing so much that we're having shortfall. We're the world's second largest coal producer and we import coal.
"Mediocrity"
@@BasEkKafir It's lack of trust in its own people.
Well done Javed. Keep it up,
GDP PER CAPITA OF PAKISTAN IS AROUNS 1700 DOLLARS WHILE GDP PER CAPITA OF INDIA IS AROUND 2700 DOLLARS . THAT'S A BIG DIFFERENCE NOT A SMALL DIFFERENCE.. 😅😅 YOU SHOULD GET THIS FACT RIGHT ✅
And that too with the kind of population India has, this GDP per capita is impressive and is increasing!!! These guys find happiness in wherever they feel that India is similar to them or behind them. They don't have the capability to fix the issues on their side and grow like India. Mean minded population filled with jealousy towards India.
@@peacelover2002 please pin the timestamps when they talked about India
Shasvat bhai....
Muzammil has been saying same stuff for last 4 yrs...
He used to say mein pakistan se nhi jaaunga...saari zindagi....
Aur bhaisab imran khan govt. Jaate he UAE bhag gye....😅 He is out for 1.5 yrs now....
You should view his videos for what the guest is saying....Only
His viewpoint is biased for India.... And will always be.... (Coz of there gods kafir logic)😂
His India knowledge/ pov is based on 🐕🦺 rathee videos only ...
He is a perfect 🐕🦺 rathee fanboy....
Following the path of his master....
😂😂
Germany is the next stop
India is not a comparison for Pak and neither PAK is yours.
For Us Inspirations are Bangladesh, Vietnam, Indonesia and other countries with similar population while your inspiration is China and it will take minimum 50 years to reach India at the level of economy China is today
@@adnanmalik6697 as per estimate it will take 25 to 30 years.. World economy is slow
Property owners, retailers and agricultural land owners not paying taxes
Pakistan and its public finds it easier to get a loan but, don’t worry about how to pay it. Nearly must of Pakistans GDP goes to interest payments.
When you talk about numbers plz mention Rs. or $. Very genuine questions asked by the host. My question. If we are paying capacity payments and not using electricity why don't we make electricity affordable so it is used in place of LNG and for domestic heating?
Bro, Pakistan already defaulted .
GOHAR EJAZ Owns Textile Mills, Chairman of APTMA and also he is in Real Estate Mafia. He Owns Lahore's second Largest Housing Society of Lahore after Bahria, "The Lake City" 15:31
On one hand we have to pay capacity payments.
Capacity 45000+ MW
Generation 20,000 MW
Demand 26666 MW.
Why are we paying capacity payments when IPPs are not producing electricity
Because jye Bhutto made such deal that's why
@@codifa5847 lol, so true
Hoping to leave Pakistan Soon, this country is nothing but a nightmare for middle class.
Thank you for this podcast but please donot go for online podcasts as your routine. The audio is not anything to appreciate with these online meetings, hence steals away the passion to hear such conversations
No accomplished industralist available...
Everyone is Analyst, expert, thinker, strategist, economist, ex politicians..
I even stopped watching expert recommendations as I know at the age of 40 that there is no way for capable people to come to decision making roles in Pakistan. Those selected and feudals lords will continue to leech the country with no respect to highly talented people as they have zero empathy towards general public.
Gdp per capita tumahare jaise? what the f!
India: 2731 and Pak: 1461. Nothing to be proud of obviously but consider that India is growing at 7 to 8 % and Pakistan at 1 to 2%. GDP per capita at 2030 of India will be 5000 approx and Pak will hover around 1700 or 2000. Considerable gap, isn't it.
Basically, China Built More Power Plants in Pakistan Than Was Needed. And All of that was Built on Loans
Now Pakistan Doesn't Need That Much Electricity, But Pakistan has to Pay Back All the Loans and the Interest to China, So The Pakistani Government is Charging Lots of Money From The Citizens Per Unit of Energy, so that they Can Pay Back the Loans and the Interest for the Power Which Pakistanis Are Not Even Using 🤣🤣
Mazaa Aaya Bhai 😀
Love from India to Pakistani Politicians For Drowning Paxtan in Debt and Making Paxtan Poor 🤗🤭
Generals and the Elites Were Definitely Paid Lots of Billions of Dollars by the Chinese to Drown Paxtan in Debt 😄
Chinese Debt Trap Diplomacy with Pakistan 😀
Debt Which is - Higher Than Himalayas, And Deeper than the Oceans 🤭
There are more power plants other than Chinese
Yess basically we have electricity surplass we cant even export them as iran already has surplus afghanistan cant afford it so yeah interest payments are biggest problem of pakistan.. Around 9.7 trillion PKR is spent on interest payments around 50% of our total budget jist like bangladesh and egypt...
Power purchase agreement sign in India are below inr 3 per unit
Day 2 of asking you please bring saad hasmani to your podcast 😢
Nothing will change untill whole pakistanis will change their mindset towards themselves and other countries.... If not other strong countries will not let you to grow.....agar yakeen nahe he toh agle das saal tak aur dekhlo yahe haal rehne hein aapke😮
Not addressing the real issue is the problem..
Addressing comes secondary, first they need to accept that they have an issue. Most Pakistanis are Oblivious of their impending doom.
Pleasure to see sir jawed. Germany
Day 1 of telling you to bring saad hashmani to podcast please he has much more to say 😭 ask him how to become rich????
Learn a freelance skill
India's per capita is double that of Pakistan's and spread over nearly 5 times your population. And now imagine the size of the economy and the pace at which it is growing. Get that through your thick skull first! I know it's hard.
We should declare. N F C award null and void temprelerly all provienc should stand with center government
Pakistan faces significant financial challenges, including the burden of 2 trillion PKR in capacity payments. While these payments strain the economy, whether Pakistan will default depends on various factors, including government actions, external assistance, and economic reforms. The situation remains critical but not definitive regarding default.
All the ongoing efforts are to avoid a default since past few years. If IMF don't release their one tranche then you can see its impact in foreign reserves, inflation, rupee devaluation etc. So the situation is precious and it heavily depends on IMF, exports and remittance to keep the country afloat.
Love muzammil
not gonna lie, i love your videos (even the hours long podascts) but when I opened this, i was immediately averted by the new format.
Sab politicians sath bethy and then country ko default hony dy and then dobara se uthaye country ko
This made me depressed af
Production level gir gaya
Sire _. Qarz ki peetay thay aurkehtey thay kevhan. __ rang lasigee. hamari faqa mastibsik din. Badar. Khan
no solutions only deprivation
Boss not a good experience..
Audio Quality, viewing experience not good
Perhaps the most informational episode I have seen on your podcast. As someone who is keen on studying how economies of nations behave, this was very interesting for me. Writing from India.
Great content but that background is driving me insane. There is no need for this animation gimmick.
Digital podcast quality is not good as physical
Digital is great. But don't make the podcast 'digital first'. The video/audio quality will drop in digital mode. Also, there might be instances where the connection is not smooth and the guest might not convey his message perfectly.
And I like the conversation when both guest and host are at one place.
Noted sir. The idea is that if a guest can come on location, we would prefer that. But if we are losing a guest because we’re not in the same location, then we should have the opportunity to record digitally.
@@TBTGO Yup. This sounds great.
Sir voice saiii nhi hh
What a gorgeous host 😍
🌈🌈
Gay he kya ?
یا آپ لوگ پوری بات اردو میں نہیں کر سکتے کیا۔؟؟؟؟😂
You talked about this article by Adeel Malik around the end of the discussion, can you link it here or in the description by any chance? Extremely insightful discussion by the way, thank you!
Added in the description sir right below the links to other reports.
Hasan bhai Daniyal Nagori k sath interview kren na plzzzz
Both of them wearing same shirt different size! Buy one get one free mein liya kya ? 😅
Shade is different
🤓
@@ViewsGoogler I know. Just kidding 😀
Good idea, but this screen is distracting and irritating, kindly go by the old system
AA. Finally got an answer regarding the comsequences of a default for Pakistan. Thank you so much Muzammil!
But I would request to take a second opinion on the same matter as well. There must be more to it.
Are yar pakistan ki ecomomy bachi ho kaha he abhi chaina pura kha gaya
It should be default
We should grow our local market by focusing on much bigger start ups and collaboration with foreign brand but normal public can't even pay their flicking bills.
startups and foreign brands are not valid solution as both are consumption driven in the economy. Pakistan is not productive, and we only consume through imports. It needs to produce more goods and services to reduce imports and increase exports. Unfortunately electricity is expensive, so it's difficult to produce cheaper goods, thus increasing more imports.
Also government taxes are mostly indirect tax, which means both poor and rich individual have to pay equal fixed amount like sales tax on basic goods, thus creating difference between purchase parity between rich and poor. Rich persons are mostly rent seekers, not contributing to productive economy, while poor persons are unable to buy produce, decreasing the demand of the economy.
Pakistanis Urdu janty hain please urdu bola krain
abe default kia toh sare $ bund ho jayenge
sri lanka ko toh India ne save kar liya tumhe koun save karega china ?
bhul jao
Aapke guest ka mic acha nhn hai sorry to say
Muzammil is asking solution prone and rational question, the guest is just reporting numbers without giving possible outcome or preferred way out and flaunting questions with statistical answers
He did give a solution. He said, again and again, that the only way out is debt restructuring (i.e., default) because trying to renegotiate any terms with foreign investors (i.e., Chinese banks) that invested in IPPs triggers natural default anyways. And he is reporting numbers, again and again, to say, "Every option you're suggesting doesn't work and you will default eventually anyways, so default now when you can control it and plan for it, instead of defaulting later when you have no control and it's total chaos."
pakistan ka matalab kya
bhad me jaye hum ko kya
Hello dude india GDP per capita is 2500 , whereas pak stand at 1500....😂
India is $2,650
@@MysticSage-hg3jh 2750 according to imf, pakistan at 1500.
India gdp per capita growing at 6.5% Pakistan gdp per capita growing at...0.
@@vatsal0075not just that but indian govt finances and debt metrics are also lot lot lot better than pakistan
India aur Pakistan ki gdp per capita almost ek jaise hai @ 21:34 . Ya Allah Pakistani k statistics department ko noble prize dilao next week . Anchor ki padhai aur Pakistan ki c......di ka level hi kuch aur hai
What is indias per capita gdp? And what is pakistans?
@@naveedtoronto Google kar lo .
@@naveedtorontoIndia 2500-2700 nominal. Pakistan is around 1500-1600.
So what he is saying truth pehle jakar khud statistics parh or economics ki classes le pakistan gdp per capita $1800 and india is at $2700 in 1.5 billion where 1% population owns 40% wealth on other hand 1% pakistanis own 10% country's wealth..and on ppp basis which is more accurate way to understand a country living standard is almost equal...pakistan gdp ppp 2 trillion in 2024 per capita $8000 india ppp $14.5 trillion per capita $9800 .. Or gor se sun usne kaha nearly equal... Not equal.. That's why education is illegal in india mandirchaap😂😂😅😅
And yeah, India has been overestimated by local Indians. Go check the hunger index, food insecurity, happiness ranking, homeless population, malnutrition, stunt growth in children, poverty level, and unemployment. On all the above basis, Pakistan is better than India. 😂😂😅 Go Google it, don't use godi media.
l❤
After watching your couple of podcast I felt that you are well informed and your research is good,but today i think your research on Indian.and Bangladesh economy is thoroughly wrong,how can you say that per capita income of India to be more or less same to Pakistan,you should also compare the per capita income of your major cities with Indian cities,youll be shocked, also the cost of liv8ng is practically half in India for similar income people, the living standard in 8ndia has improved tremendously over last 15 years, be it medical,education, transportation etc
Superb!!!!! Love Javed Hasan saab 👌
Fit hai yaar Paxstan. Ab toh it's time to get over this roz roz ka rona and this obsession with Kirkit. Simply declare Cricket and sports in general as "Haram" and yeh roz ke syaape kahatam. Na rahega baans na bajegi baansuri. For entertainment Paxstan has "Lynching" can be made its National Sport. Paxstanis are good at it, very good. Economy ki koi problem Nahin. National Profession is "Begging". From the top Chief Jarnail, PM and others to the bottom everyone is very good at it. Ab toh export bhi ho raha hai tagda. Beggars are being exported in huge quantities by Paxstan and as a result a record 30 Billion Daalars have come in remittances. Well done Paxstan!
Please muzammil bahi continue the series of " Dil ki bat ". ❤❤❤
😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂
Poor homework by anchor. He has no knowledge of GDP/ capita of Bangladesh and. India .
Bannu par show kr k dikhao, agr tum waqi inqalabi ho.
Javed Sahab is a confirmed youthia (pardon my French). He simply restated that the poor are suffering and nothing new. He fails to mention the reason why we are in this quagmire.
Muzammil you forgot crop the last 5 sec off camera conversation with the guest.
Woops! Thanks for pointing it out. I have fixed it!
21:43 with this mindset, am sure, Pakistan will never progress
typical jaahil jihadi mindset.
india is doing everything from manufacturing solar and wind energy machinery domestically, e2e local car manufacturing, 20% ethanol blending in car fuels, electrified railways, electric metro rail and public transport in every city, coal plants based on domestic reserves, importing from russia and running worlds largest oil refinery to hedge against external crude oil shocks and reduce dependency on oil imports.
These duffers are not doing a single one of those things and think they are comparable to us. 'India same GDP per capita' canard is also growing old. India is 2x the GDP per capita now, and at an intellectual level the difference is far beyond that - GDP per capita will probably be closer to 3x by the end of the decade.
He is saying truth go check bangladesh inflation textile industries are closing day by day they are seeling $5 billion loan from china unemployement 😂😂😅😅...despite natural calamities western pressure pak is doing much better than our neighbours.....
@@user-kn3gc6wn7h then be happy Pakistan continue begging all countries
Bangladesh inflation is downhill and unemployment is on the rise. It is truth
@@user-kn3gc6wn7h pak doing better? than whom
Javed sir is back, he used to teach math to me, ❤ him
Pakistan ma investment krna asa ha jasa kuwaan ma paisa dalna is liya paisa overseas bahir hi invest kro😢😢😢😢😢😢😢😢😢😢😢😢😢😢😢😢😢😢😢😢😢😢😢😢😢😢
❤love
❤❤❤❤❤❤