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Is Pakistan on Its Way to an "Arab Spring"? | TCM Explains
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- čas přidán 13. 07. 2024
- With increasing inflation and changing power dynamics, political engineering in Pakistan is now harder than ever, according to Oxford University Associate Professor Dr. Adeel Malik. This is part 2 of TCM's conversation with Dr. Adeel, exploring his perspective on Pakistan's governability crisis, the collapsing power structure, and the lack of legitimacy in institutions.
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Best analysis than all the lifafas combined.
An absolute thorough, well articulated, well synthesised analysis
Dr Adeel abd TCM thank you for the Vlog
sooner or later we will have it. As nation we are very slow in learning.
No, Pakistani men are not fighters.
100% True. I listen Some one who thought exactly matches with me
Bohat Aala Analysis.
very good journalism . keep up the good work
Very well explained...
This is reality and facts which are not understandable by our incompetent and so called corrupt politicians and institutions
Very well said doc. 💯
ہماری آنکھیں کھل گئی ہیں ۔۔۔ پر جرنیلوں کی ابھی بھی بند ہیں۔ گریٹ vlog۔
Great analysis ,its an eye opener to us.
Asim Munir & the post of COAS is biggest national security threat for Pakistan & Pakistaniyat
Can you explain a bit more. Why do you think the post of COAS itself is a security threat?
@@silenthill1035too much control
@@silenthill1035 unchecked powers, turns the army into a Yes Sir cult of one man and his personal policies & POV. True establishment like in the US are your military generals, Supreme court judges, top politicians and business men.
Not just them, but all high command, or else they would have stopped them.
Yw foj nahiin mafia.hai
british raj jab gaya to ek pup-pet state bana gaya aka pakistan, ye to unko bhi nahi pata tha ky ye pup-pet state in nalaik ghulamu ky hatu banana state ban jae ga
@@user-yh1qd7lj5f well they like it that way. Easier to control now.
@@user-yh1qd7lj5fایسے خیالات بھارتیوں کے نظر آتے ہیں۔
یہ بات ذہن نشین رہے کہ اگر پاکستان وجود میں نہ آتا تو اب تک بھارت کے پچاس سے زیادہ ٹکڑے ہو جانے تھے۔ یہ بات میری نہیں ہے ایک ہندو کا اپنے ملک کے بارے میں تبصرہ ہے۔
@@raufjaleel8317 ghar my beth kar tabsary katny sy kuch nahi hota, haqaiq ko dekh kar bat hoti hy, agar bar e sageer ko bartaniya mutahida chor jata to kisi ky baap my dam na hota isko torny ka, bartaniya to princly states of hyderabad, junagarh or kashmir ko azad chor kr gya tha kaha gae vo? jab elhda hoky inti askari taqat hy to mutahida hoky koi kuch bhi nahi kar sakta tha, pakistan was made as a pup-pet state, kabhi sharabi ismaili jinnah ky winston churchil ky sath hoy khatoot ko parho haqiqat samny ay, pakistan was the project of winston churchil through jinnah, brahmin to har man gae thy, gandhi ny to untied subcontinent par muslim league ko rule krny ki offer bhi kardi thi in jinnah gandhi talks, mountbatten ny apni kitab my ye wazeh likha huva usky bavajoud kiyu nahi mana jinnah?? zahir si bat hy apny dost winston churchill ko dhoka to nahi dena tha jinnah ny, aj agar bar e sageer muthaid hota to kisi hindu ky baap my dam na hota babari masjid ko shaheed krny ky liya
@@raufjaleel8317 there is a reason why ulema e kram of sub continent were against creation of pakistan, they knew about divide and rule policy, aj pakistan my kya ho raha hy? ek amrika sy letter ata hy or waha unki patloon gili ho jati hy
پاکستان کے ریٹائرڈ سرکاری ملازمین پنشن کی مد میں سالانہ 1800 ارب روپے لے رہے ہیں، یہ رقم اتنی بڑی ہے کہ ہم پاکستان میں تمام طلباء کو 100فیصد مفت یونیورسٹی کی تعلیم، اعلیٰ معیار کے ہاسٹل اور بہترین کھانا دے سکتے ہیں، اور پھر بھی ہمارے پاس ایک بڑی رقم باقی رہ جاے
@Byteminds-gd2je sab k liye zaroori hai ya sirf sarkari mulameen k liye jo abadi ka sirf 10% hain
@Byteminds-gd2je tou kya har buzurg ko pension nahi milni chahiay ?ya sirf sarkari buzurg ko hi milni chahiay ?
Pension wale hramkhor humari hafio ka ghosht b noch rahe ha inki oension band honi chahye in logo ne ihsan nahi kia salary li ha
جو ھے اس کو صحیح خرچ کریں۔۔۔ یہاں جو بھی کریں ۔۔ کوئی فایدہ نہیں ۔۔۔ جب تک قانون اور انصاف نہیں ھوگا
@Byteminds-gd2je puri dunya main jo shehri tax deta hai , woh pension ka haqdar hota hai , pakistan main sirf sarkari mulazim sari pension kha jatay hain
Wonderful vlog. Appreciated.
To listen more of him
Excellent analysis. Keep it up.
Agreed with analyst....
Good point
Very good analysis
Good initiative, things will change once we start dialogue.
Amazing he is right . Can ask him to talk about Imran Khan and his future please 😊
He is man with zero vision . he have no solution for any problem
Wonderful Analysis, you guys have nailed it.
Good researcher
WELL DONE SIR
Brilliant work
You narrated facts, very well.
Very well explained by the this gentleman
Best analysics
How can I get his written article?
Very nice analysis
WB Inflation, consumer prices (annual %) for instance in one of the Arab spring countries (Egypt) shows that in 2011 it was 11% raised to 13percent in 2022 and 33% in 2023. almost same trend in other A.S countries
Good analysis
This video has been heavily edited!
Jo Doc Sb kah rahay hain wo tau sun lo uncle
انکل ڈاکٹر صاحب نے یہ تمام باتیں اپنے ایک مضمون میں کہی ہیں ڈاؤنلوڈ کر لیں اور پڑھ لیں۔
A good analysis
System of Authoritarian Elite family power sharing who protect each other. This is why accountability doesn't proceed as they are not coming through a merit system but nepotism. Each one has self interests and each one is a mafia with its own territory.
Please provide link to the paper written by the Professor ... Thanks ...
زبردست تجزیہ ۔
Very impressive
Realistic analysis
Brilliant
Very well said that power is potent only as long as it is masked
Arab spring and correction of democratic norms are two different things.
Good views
Exactly Analysis based on Reality
Pakistan public has no problem with Army. They have a problem with their unnecessary interference in politics, business, economy and in general administration. Also people are of the view that Army is promoting corrupt politicians and parties and not letting upright and educated individuals to come into politics.
Pak is with who ever throws money at them
It's the reality of Pakistan of today generals n co are trying to maintain the status quo but it will not stay this it's now or never situation now
This show is much better than Raftaar Tv who always do anti imran shows
Pakistani army general will not even qualify for clerk job in other countries. .
You are missing one cardinal point that when people want to see a govt to fail then every thing starts moving in the reverse direction. This is exactly what is happening in Pakistan
Zabardast video
CHANGE IS COMING ❤ IN SHA ALLAH
last big change was 1971
A similar change will happen again, for sure.
@@regularguy2391احمقوں کی جنت میں رہتے ہیں۔
In Pakistan every important gov position is control by army. Army select prime minister. Army control judges, police, business, internal and foreign policy, rail way and pia telecom and construction of roads and highways. Borders and checkposts are control by army. Pakistan is run by army.
As per comments, I would say Jesi awam wese hukmuran.
Do you remember what we use to read about chinese people in 1950 and 1960, "Afeemchi, drug user, nashay may doobi qaum", where is china now, dont forget china got independence a year after pakistan.
2/2:-Also Read: Monsoon: The Indian Ocean and the Future of American Power
The indifference or the lack thereof on the economic meltdown is perplexing nonetheless economic stability will remain an important variable that may quickly change the prevailing courtship. Pakistan is facing an existential crisis with the debt surmounting over $274 billion amidst unrelenting plunder of state institutions/infrastructure and mortgaging these for seeking more loans, reducing fiscal independence and drastically impacting sovereign decision-making.
David O Smith’s assumption, “The military may have finally realized that the true centre of gravity of Pakistan National Security lies in its economy and not in the military capacity alone”, hopefully must have been reckoned with in its entirety. Or we will mercilessly and in bewilderment see the ship sinking and do nothing in the name of neutrality.
Intriguing though it may appear, the neutrality notion contextualization by Amir Zia says it all, “Many view the fall of the Imran Khan’s government amid this buzz of ‘neutrality’ as a switching of sides by the army, or worse, abject surrender to the much-tried, tested and failed corrupt political dynasties in this country”.
Intended Purpose and Objectives
Resultantly, the unfortunate conflagration of hatred and rift between the society and the state (sic the military) - a fervent desire of the inimical forces, which ironically have been callously choreographed by none other than the political cartel in its internecine struggle and lust for power with such purported objectives, as:
Propping up the dwarfing image of the political elite, marred by corruption scandals (Panama leaks, money laundering, etc.).
Drawing the military down from the high moral pedestal and deriding its iconic image of being a guardian of national interest.
Yield space to the US and bring the military establishment under control.
A more confident and emboldened political establishment, having regained space, endeavor a more intrusive and searching role in affairs of the military, curtailing its freedom of action on particularly strategic and nuclear issues.
Make the military accomplice in state dispensation and when needed apportion blame, making the military a scapegoat for its inept handling of important foreign and domestic issues.
Silence the political dissent and disarray the political opposition by insinuating a military hand in the ongoing political unrest.
If all else fails, eventually, provoke the military in taking any unconstitutional step to remove the government and become a political martyr yet again to improve political stature.
Let the military/caretaker government deal with the difficult multifarious socio-economic challenges and clean the Augean stables.
Modus Operandi
While appearing to play a second fiddle to the military, let the military have a say on issues of national import, with their own perfidious characteristic indifference to national affairs.
Keep the military leadership in good humour through obliging and appeasing actions of routine nature, while continuing to guard and advance their political and commercial interests.
Through astute political brinkmanship consolidate their rabid dispensation by appeasing the political allies, shrinking the space for the political opponents, and precluding the possibility of any Bonapartist corrective course by the military.
Create organized chaos, turbulence, and disorder and induce a managed economic collapse to an extent that holding of elections appears of secondary importance and redundant - thereby seeking more time for consolidating political rule on the pretext of propping up the faltering economy.
Diminishing Military Support
A stock check of the entire situation and the current state of the civil-military relations in Pakistan reveal one straight fact i.e. the military seems to be the principal loser in this ongoing fratricide. Over the years, the fraternal bond of love, affection, and reverence that the military so painstakingly built with the populace with its blood and sweat, emerging as a saviour in almost every national crisis, has come crashing down.
Also Read: Protests in Georgia over the Foreign Agents Bill
The ensuing animus between the Pakistan Army and the people has affected national unity drastically. All this is perhaps due to the inadvertent misstep of becoming indifferent and aloof (apolitical) - as a consequence, ushering in a corrupt political cartel and then turning a blind eye to the flagrant incompetence, misgovernance, mishandling, and rampant loot and plunder.
The romance with the military has been a dream gone sour, which could only be re-lived, if the miltablishment lives up to its image, understand people’s aspiration, and dole out an even hand, ensuring transparency, fair play, and nudges the stakeholders to sort out the political impasse - rather than leaving an impression of political vicitimisation or a witch-hunt against its erstwhile political master.
The panacea of prevailing crises is hence none other than adherence to the constitution and the rule of law by all state organs without prejudice and distinction and an earnest recourse to the free-fair polls.
Considering Possibilities
While the time of much talked about and expected possibility of sending the political order packing and replacing it with a technocratic government (otherwise a non-starter) to institute a reformative political and economic agenda is gone, there is no other alternative at hand than the resort to bring in a legitimate political dispensation.
The present turn of events suggests the following immediate remedial and imperatives:
First and foremost is a perception reset - the battered and sullied image of the military in public eyes needs to be restored.
Undertake a Public Relations (PR) initiative to win the hearts and minds of the people.
Notwithstanding the government tactics of distancing itself from the episode, ensure that the inquiry into Arshad Sharif’s murder and Imran Khan’s killing attempt is conducted justly and in earnest - and in that, if there is a need for internal institutional reshuffles - it ought to be done!
With malice towards none, the military needs to live up to its resolve of remaining apolitical and stop, shun, and refrain from political engineering, eschewing playing the favorites. The image, however, of the COAS and the would-be caretaker Chief Minister of Punjab together at the Kaaba’s doorsteps didn’t serve well, sullying the impression of impartiality further.
Being the only institution that has a lien over other state organs (Judiciary, FIA, NAB, IB, Election Commission, et al), yields its influence to enable, empower and engender a righteous course for instituting a just and fair system.
Inducement of political pressure on the government to bring in some semblance of political order.
Let the situation be taken over by events, while the military continues lending a helping hand on important foreign, domestic, and nation-building issues.
Nudging the government for sustainable foreign, defence, and economic policies, as these are potential instability triggers, which indirectly affect the deterrence capability.
Last Word
The founding father was categorical in defining the military’s role - stating, “Don’t forget that the armed forces are the servants of the people. You don’t make national policy; it is the civilians, who decide these issues and it is your duty to carry out these tasks with which you are entrusted” - ironically, however, the dictum has been trampled time and again in the name of national interest and progress.
The genius of military leadership demands that it lives up to the abiding aphorism and for a change finally go back to the barracks, but not before cleaning the Augean stables. If you have started it, you ought to finish it also!
What's your views on PTM and their future
ilam ka aam hona sa socio-economic conditions awr topographies tabdeel nai hoti. jo quomain idaron mai apnay duties ko taj pehnati hain wo real hoti hain....arab spring na begairati awr deprivation ko nahi shakal mai introduce ki hain.... plz check their national identities and so-called economics
Bohat khassi awaam hay, ye kuch nahy kar sakty
Professor sb kia Arab spring k bad Libya,Syria, Iraq,Yemen wahan security hy,kia wahan par roozgar hy,kia wahan pa insaf hy,logoon ki izzat mehfooz hy,agr ye nai hay to plz awaam ko gumrah mat karyn, Pakistan is our mother land,our pride,AP b Pakistan ki wajah se oxford my hu,keep it in mind
Absolutely right …. Sastay internet ki bandwidth aur smart phone ka access - yellow journalism aur I’ll information ka flow … kia baat hei !
تو ان حالات میں عام پاکستانی کیا کرے جی؟ آپ کیا تجویز کرتے ہیں؟
@@user-te4ub3jr1f Zemaidari ka muzahira jo taleem, shaoor aur fikr ki kame ki wajha se kam ho chuka hei.
Diyanatdari aur sach bolna hum sab kei ikhteiyar mein hei … ager yeh hi kerna shuru ker dein to soch ka mehwar aur masloon ka hal nazer aa sakta hei … ikhtilaf e rae ka bhi ehtaram hona chaheay aur taehzeeb ko revive kerna chaheay
@@zarayabkhan-e9b آپ کی باتوں سے کوئی بھی ذی شعور انسان اختلاف نہیں کر سکتا لیکن کیا آپ یہ نہیں سمجھتے کہ حالات اب ان باتوں سے بہت آگے نکل چکے ہیں - ذرا آپ پاسپورٹ آفس کا چکر تو لگا لیں اور دیکھیں کہ کتنے زیادہ لوگ ملک سے باہر جانا چاہتے ہیں - 2023 کی پہلی سہ ماہی میں تقریباً ساڑھے چار لاکھ ہنر مند اور اعلیٰ تعلیم یافتہ لوگ پاکستان چھوڑ گئے - اس تعداد میں دن بہ دن اضافہ ہو رہا ہے - ریاست آپکو کچھ دینے کو تیار ہی نہیں - نا آپکی عزت محفوظ ہے اور نا ہی زندگی، امیر اور طاقتور مزید ترقیاں کر رہے ہیں اور غریب اور متوسط طبقہ دن بہ دن دھنستے چلے جارہے ہیں - آپ دہشت گردی دیکھیں، لاقانونیت دیکھیں، مہنگائی دیکھیں، بیروزگاری دیکھیں اور ظلم اور استحصال دیکھیں - آپ کینسر کو پیناڈول کے ذدیعے ٹھیک کرنے والی باتیں کر رہے ہیں،،،، ،،،،،کوئی بات ناگوار گزری ہو تو معذرت خواہ ہوں -
HAHA OK BAIYN SADI LUMBER ONE ARMY JO INDIA SY 4 JUNGAY JEEY CHUKKI HY USKI GULAMI KARTY HY
Everyone know this, nothing new. Pakistan needs reforms and their is no Arab Spring.
social media to khatam samjho ab pakistan men
Every one is waiting for Qayamat, but Qayamat will not come until Pakistani elites become Insaan - which will never happen, so Mahdi nahi ayega
Great analysis ❤️🩹❤️🩹
Oh military orrr kro political engineering....u are welcome....kal ko kahany ko b ni mily ga
Duffers ko Kon samjhaye
آرمی بھی اب انہی اشرافیہ اور مافیا کا حصہ ہیں
Unfortunately What Molana Abdul kalam Azad said about Pakistan in 1946 is coming true
کیا فرمایا تھا مولانا آزاد نے؟
Yaha kabi kuch ni badla r na hi badly ga
Amreeki Yahoodi Ghulami Namanzur!! Magribi Imdaad namanzur!
1947 sy arahi hai
Punjabi kab jagay ga is mulk mai ye bataow.
Majority punjabi hi hai 3 forces main aur establishment bhi inki hi hai aur beuorocracy main bhi yehi hain inki aayashiyan hai woh bhala q jaagen ge
PUNJABI MURDY THY UNKA ITIHAS PRD LO WO PARRY KRNY WALI KOM THI PR AJJ BHI HY PUJABI KA ITIHAS SIRF OR SIRF JUTTAY CHATNY KA HY AGR MY GALAT HU TU JAYUO ITIHAS SY PRD KR LY KY AYU OR MUJAY BATAYUO PUNJABIYUO NY KUB APNAY WAJJUD KI LURADYI LARDI HY
@@aaqibameer8197ayashi side pe kero. Punjab ke history par hs
Laiken phir bhi yahan KEE JAHIL AUR BAYAQAL AWAM PPP , MQM,
A TO Z LEAGUE KO HEE APNA khuda manay gee, aur kahay gee Pakistan nahi toot sukta kyunki yahan darga wa Mezaar hain.....
Pti jamat e islami bhi
Pakistani nation is aka Munfiqistani
Punjabi lobby destroy🇵🇰 system
Imf ko end honi chya Inshallah
275 billion dollars hai beta
Imf ne kab kha aapse bheekh lene k liye. Aap hi jate ho kasgol leke. Mat jao na. 😂
@@Chharisali007 ye inshallah k chakar mai hi chud gaye ho beta effort tou karni koi nahi
دانت توڑ محنت کرنی پڑے گی۔ پاکستانی ہڈ حرام کر لیں گے؟
Pakistan mai musallah baghawat K ABHEE BHEE NAE Hogee.. yeh ap mujh say likh kar lay lain..aur es ske kuch bunyaadi wajoohaat hain.being student of IR ( International Relations)ans International Politics and sociology.. i can guarantee you this.
Agar pakistan mai bagawat hogayi as a kashmiri I'll guarantee you India will take advantage of that thing ...
Jahan Arab spring wahan kya hua kuch bhi nai.
Egypt, Syria, Tunisia sb jga wohi log wapis agye.
Or Pakistan mn bhi kuch nahi hona.
Professor sahab ko kahen oxford mn chill marain.
bro point check karien zara. middle class frustrated ha yehi bola na? apna comment dekho loog frustrated hain. kis taraf se? wo different reasons haon lekin distrust ha (distrust kesa? again apna comment dekhien)
o bahi un sary arab mulkhu ky pakistan sy behtar halat hy, pakistan ky to kenya uganda or sudan sy bhi bury halat hain
@@sarabdar8168 bikul sahi farmay.. IKs 'shaoor' has disseminated like a breath of fresh air-post rain
عمران خان ❤
1k likes thank me later
Tcm you should not be showing faces of corrupt politicians especially this nawaz and his cartel sharam kr lo
Hopeless analysis
Pehle tum age hona. Take spring ka maza tuje first mile.
Typical faujeet response
خاصی بے ربط گفتگو فرمائی
We no Arabs we only have spring
We made the video it’s Gona be Asian spring
Lanat is napak foj par
Lanat youthio par
Corrupt Army Relatives leaving comments from DHA😂😂😂😂😂
why not shria for pakistan 🇵🇰 😢😢
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