The Israeli-Hamas War: Intelligence, Strategy, and the Day After
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- čas přidán 10. 12. 2023
- As the Israel-Hamas war enters its second month, the role of intelligence has figured prominently. How did Israel fail to grasp Hamas’s intentions and capabilities and to anticipate the October 7 attack? Was this a failure of imagination or were there structural and bureaucratic impediments that prevented Israel’s intelligence community from identifying the dots and connecting them? Are domestic politics overriding sound intelligence analysis to shape the Israeli government’s campaign against Hamas, its approach toward Gazan civilians, its efforts to free hostages, and its thinking on post-conflict Gaza and the West Bank?
Join us as Efraim Halevy, former director of the Mossad, and Ami Ayalon, former director of Shin Bet, engage in conversation with Aaron David Miller on these and other subjects.
Notice how these men who served in top positions in Israel, overseeing the attritional violence against Palestinians for the last 75 years are not from the region. One is from the US and one is from the UK.
I am listening with an open mind, but to hear integrity mentioned in connection with a MOSSAD employee is a novel and daring concept. Funny actually if the situation wasn't so tragic.
Superb analysis! I will be placing this conversation on my website. This needs to be spread far and wide. Thank you gentlemen.
Among Aaron Miller’s remarkable interviews, this may be the most remarkable… Joe Biden should listen if he truly wants an assessment of the Hamas-Israel situation.
Menachem begin was such an extreme zionist menachim begin thought he was too hawkish 😂😂 Biden thought it was over like so many other seemingly clever
Interesting discussion but I note that in his summing up from around 45:00, Efraim Halevy managed to mention the Egyptians, the Jordanians, the US and Saudi Arabia as having to be partners in a lasting peace (my paraphrasing of what he said), but that he failed to mention the Palestinians at all! So essentially, the best he can come up with is to offer the 'Abraham Accord' as a solution, all over again. Thankfully, Ami Ayalon took a more pragmatic view of trying to secure a lasting peace for his children and grandchildren.
Read Ayalon book (Friendly Fire) and it was amazing , his career and intellectual brightness should be a beacon to follow … great host and guests !
Brilliant, clear sighted, analysis devoid of any distortion flowing from ideology.
Halevy is also the man who admitted that ISIS was being treated in Israeli hospitals and that ISIS wasnt their enemy
At last a form( or forms) of clarity from older wiser heads: great chairing of debate too. This conflict always affects the world mostly in heated emotions( all heat & no light). I felt my head was healed by a more
rationalist approach. All we have are ideas and suffering: what will come after, indeed!
Excellent discussion. These gents are our CIA director and FBI director equivalents. Subject matter experts to be sure.
so they're high-class criminals?
@@kayg148 That's ignorant. Thanks for stopping in.
Very smart and experienced men who , no disrespect intended ,seem to be at a total loss as to what must be done to stop the killing and massive destruction of Gaza , it’s inhabitants and future peace.
Great analysis! As an Arab Muslim, I would like to say that we don’t despise Jews. We despise Israel’s actions against the Palestinians. For the sake of Israel’s longevity, it is imperative that we reach just resolution.
I largely agree with your comment. If I may ask - are you an Arab Muslim in an Arab country or the West?
@@benjaminr6153 I live in the United States.
One of the best talks on this issue I've seen
Very important conversation (marred only by the propaganda description of the attack). Israel can hold on to (or, reclaim) its identity as a democratic state only by ending occupation and its apartheid policies. Re: what is to follow...I personally believe the only way forward is for both sides to adopt a "scales from the eyes" approach, in that, during the course of a regional territorial dispute both sides lost the ability to compromise. It happens with nations, with people, with families. It happens. This is a human, dynastic, multi-generational dilemma. This is a moment of species redemption. Together with Palestinians, Israelis have an opportunity to demonstrate how reconciliation is a choice. Choose life. Choose love. Choose peace. 🌎🕊️
Ps. Ami, do not despair. I believe the change will come very quickly. I believe you will be here to witness the dream of reconciliation, peace and recovery.
Not with this elected government that runs Israel at the moment unfortunately.
Yes, if only people would believe exactly what you believe in the world would be a much better place. In fact, if everybody believed in the same thing there would be no conflict. (sarcasm)
You dismiss everyone else's beliefs for your own. You are no different than them. You assume democracy, life, love, peace, reconciliation and other garbage that has no currency in this conflict. We are not living in the Messianic Era, people don't think or value the same things.
Your approach has been tried as much as it has ever been tried for the last 100 years. It has failed and will always fail because it is trying to force Western values and thinking on people who exploit and despise it.
Thank you for this wonderful conversation. It brought tears of joy and hope to my eyes that the former leaders of the Shin Bet and the Mossad have the insight and humanity to acknowledge that a viable political solution, i.e. a real path to a 2 state solution, is the only way out of this human tragedy. If only political leaders can speak with such sincerity and clear-headedness and not resort to rhetoric and demonization!!!
Ref Ami Ayalon's answer on the short term goals of the operation itself, Hamas stated (right away) what they wanted to achieve with the hostages; the release of Palestinian prisoners/hostages.
Thanks
Insightful analysis
May God Bless You All
Sorry but the last words of mr Halevy are typical for Israëliërs because is talking about a solution but did not mention once the Palestinians
While this was a good discussion overall, I'd hope people who are intellectual, like Ami Ayalon, would sooner rather than later come to understand that partition and 2SS will not be feasible, will not work. Heck, we're on the verge of official resettlement in Gaza too, once this is over and dust settles. Ami did rightly point out that the only way something can be salvaged is if it's imposed from outside (by americans) onto Israel... doesn't seem likely either.
Great video and insights. Thanks.
The State Inquiry Commission is a failed institution in Israel. Back in 1974, the Inquiry commission delivered an interim report in 4 months time and was dismantled after having delivered its final report after 14 months. It faced criticism over limiting the inquiry to the Military establishment, but at least it delivered something. Subsequent commissions took longer and longer to deliver their reports. The last two commissions that were appointed in 2021 are still working without having delivered anything. And both have been charged with much simpler tasks than investigating war-scale events.
Extraordinary. I consider myself a moderate Arab and this is the type of conversation we should be having.
What is a moderate Arab?
@@daudmaybach7449a Arab that Israel and the west likes
Wonderful analysis and discussion. Learned so much!! Shoukran
Fascinating..
Ami ..you know the answers to this question...Why do the Palestinians feel they have nothing to Loose...
Fantastic conversations!
Does it need all this time and deaths so you can reach to the conclusion that Occupation will lead to Resistence and that with No justice No one will ever live in peace in the region ?
Do you really need all these diplomas , books behind you and years to reach to this conclusion ?
All of Gaza was controlled by Hamas on October 7th. 2nd, there was never in history any state called Palestine governed by Palestinians. Tell me one Palestinian President before 48. Keep thinking.
Aaron David Miller...salute & chapeau....direct to the core of the entire subject..Mr Ephraim....is now completely pre.conditioned by old times .....Ami Ayalon is holding back on a lot...please address the strategic questions that will also ...affect directly ..the future of Israel..
Plz try to identify and define the true position of israel...in the Sun...and position among nations.
“The first principle is that you must not fool yourself and you are the easiest person to fool.”
8th. wounder of the world Man never Learn....!!!!
Trank you.
Brilliant conversation.
Thanks to the three of you for sharing your assessments of the present situation. Very interesting and valuable. However I was very surprised that Iran’s agenda was totally absent , with his obvious goal (to me) of demolishing the Abraham process involving his main suni ennemy Saoudi Arabia. As an agreement was about to be achieved it had become a matter of emergency.
Furthermore, I was also very surprised not to hear anything about the central role of the Muslim Brothers who are very active around the world, including America (it is vital to read the Muslim Brotherhood’s Plan for North America where on page 7 of the english translation they state very clearly their goal is to demolish the decadent american civilization peacefully from within and describe how they plan to do it , in particular through their educational institution)
The view of an increasing number of analist is that Hamas has never been an organization in defense of the palestinian people. They could not care less. It is an organization with a purely islamist agenda, which is establishing a califat all over the world. And indeed , their terrorist attacks are all over the world and in particular in the Wester world. And they are embedded in the masses of Muslim immigrants .
Therefore I completely share the conclusion that the war is an ideogical war that Israel has not really been seriously engaged into. And the view that if the Palestinians are given some hope that they can have a state where their ordinary lives could improve , this would lead to a normalization given a little time is not entirely false. However it is a typical Western approach, and given the power of the Muslim Brotherhood that are the underlying basis of Hamas , it is unfortunately an illusion that has been prevalent in Israel through his numerous and unsuccessful attempts at a territory partition since 1947. Hamas and the Fatah/PLO always had the goal of one country , from the river to the sea. So indeed, the war has never been about territories, which potentially had solutions through concessions. The war is an ideological one against the islamic totalitarism. And it is urgent for the West to fight it before it is too late.
When the wrong man use's the right means, The right means work in the wrong way...."E=mc²"
I forgot to mention that the Muslim Brotherhood plan for North America was published in 1991 and easy to access on the Internet ICW
One Who Rejected The Peace And Take His Right Only Cand Reach Any Success. Don't Search Morethan Your Rights.
Disappointing. Civilised conversation though it was.
Идеология как у Британии в эпоху расцвета, нести бремя белого человека. Перспективвное решение это устроить такое ядро там, чтом оно через модернизацию остановило темпы рождаемости неподготовленных к жизни людей
Military and security analysts like Martin van Creveldt.
World is about competing kernels rather than solid govs
Futile exchange between two former high commanders who still want us to believe there is only the 2 states as the good solution . The truth they carefully avoid is the PLO has always refused the 2 states / see Arafat in 2001 playing that game at Camp David vs Clinton-Barak ) as it only desires the One State ( Israel ) being fully absorbed in one big arab state ( Jordan included later ) . So it's hot air - wishful thinking and without any impact on the ground . Since the true solution is yes Two States ;Israel west of Jordan river- Jordan est of the river .
On the contrary the PLO did accept a 2 state solution however Isreal never offered a 100% of it. Which is why Isreal supported and funded Hamas as a means to prevent a 2 state solution with the PLO.
Lets выдвинем требования по освобождению женщин и детей для начала субстантивных переговоров с теми, кто имеет РЕАЛЬНЫЕ рычаги
The guest says that Hamas was monitoring the scene of the demonstrations in Israel and chose the appropriate moment to carry out the attack, but others might say that Netanyahu was waiting for an opportunity to war with Hamas to cover up the demonstrations. Exchange of services?! Right?
Ami Ayalon should listen more to what the Palestinian's think and say instead of making up his own theories.
He represents the same failed philosophy of trying to impose Western values and priorities on Arabs in the Middle East. That approach has failed for the last 100 years, blame whichever side you want for the failure. It just doesn't work and has caused more misery than it has prevented.
Let's take all the 'moderate' Palestinians and give them a state. Name one, of the 21 Arab countries, that is a stable, peaceful democracy. Can't? There is no reason to believe they will do any better.
There is every reason to believe that they will become a corrupt bunch of gangsters, led by whoever can build the strongest militia. In other words, Gaza 2.0.
What Is Before October 7? If Has Not into Account That Or What Coused October 7. You Are Not Need Any Solution. .
Stop genocide! Free Palestine! 🇵🇸
It's a pity than such pragmatic voices always appear post hoc, never in advance of catastrophe. Unfortunately, nothing that Israel has done since 1967 would suggest that they will ever consent to a viable Palestinian state, and, despite the very reasonal appraisals of these two speakers, even the current apocalypse will not result in that path going forward. The foundation philosophy of the Zionist state is so intertwined with Judaism that secular politics will never fully take in Israel and so, the Torah will continue to define Israel's political future until such time as the US abandon them or the decide at last to put the Holocaust behind them for once and for all.
Israel has attempted multiple times to make peace agreements with the Palestinians. The last time in 1999 was when Arafat’s band of terrorists sabotaged the Wye River Accords (perhaps under orders from Arafat).
if you bring here Sweedes and send the ps to Sweeden -then the 2 state is a realistic vision
Or the Israelis can move back to Poland
Count Bernadotte says otherwise
Both very intelligent gentlemen with good intentions. What is missing here are people on the other side of the Israeli political spectrum and more so a collection of Palestinians who should should speak for themselves. There is no easy easy answer, if there is an answer at all to this because it involves so many layers and so many players beyond Israelis and Palestinians. To Jews who have had a presence in this region for 4000 years, including eras of national sovereignty ended by the Romans around 2000 years ago, followed by a return to national sovereignty in 1948 its a very different narrative than for Palestinians. Unless they can come together in a collective vision of the future, there will never be peace.
good discussion, particularly regional instability, and this is the beginning of the end of the Zionist settler colonial project, eventually it will be a secular democracy for everyone, yes, aspirational, but better than any other possible solution. Problematic eliding of US supported Israeli settler colonialism, but I expected this. And comparing Hamas to ISIS, pure horseshit supported by nothing at all. Meanwhile genocide and ethnic cleansing. In the end, Israel is a crappy little country doing horrible things to people in the region. Again, Israel will not continue to stand as a Zionist state in time. The claim of a Jewish democratic state is fully crazy, btw.
You mean, the end of the Islamic expansion from North Africa?
@@helderet4756 he said what he meant hasbara
Two important quotes of David Ben Gurion seem to have escaped everyone around this table:
1. The present map of Palestine was drawn by the British mandate. The Jewish people have another map which our youth and adults should strive to fulfill: from the Nile to the Euphrates.
2. The Arabs will have to go, but one needs an opportune moment for making it happen, such as a war.
Netanyahu was warned three different times (CIA, Mossad and even Egyptian secret service) that a Hamas attack was imminent Netanyahu chose to use this as an opportunity to realize his long lasting dream of a greater Israel***. Now that the US is against a permanent occupation of the Gaza strip, the 1600 lives of the Chosen People that he offered on the Hamas slaughter bank is rendered futile! This will never be forgotten by the family who's fathers, mothers and children were killed.
Bibi will be held responsible for his utter failure.
***“Anyone who wants to thwart the establishment of a Palestinian state has to support bolstering Hamas and transferring money to Hamas,” Benjamin Netanyahu told his Likud party’s Knesset members in March 2019. “This is part of our strategy". Source: Israel's biggest newspaper (Haaretz).
"Every 12 months Hamas needs a military campaign to boost its support because it can't deliver real progress for its people." Sounds like he's talking about America. 😂
Our ideology is Islam, it doesn't change! Ya ahbal.
Palestinians want aqsa mosque. Get real.
More propaganda for the masses. 😂
This has to be one of the most disappointing discussions I have listened to regarding the October 7 pogrom. Here is a summary --- 1) everything is the fault of Netanyahu and his religious coalition partners, 2) the poor "palestinians" feel ignored so they are allowed to hold the world hostage to their violence, 3) the only solution (and this is incredible to hear from these guys) is a two-state solution next to Israel.
No mention of the role of Iran or its criminal partners Russia and China. No mention that the so-called palestinians (intentionally lower case) have done noting but reject statehood in favor of their bloodthirsty obsession with Jews. No mention of all the stupid things the USA has done to enable radical Islamic aggression in the ME --- not to mention the money it has recently lavished on the ayatollahs. It is very difficult to take these two guests as impartial and objective interpreters.
Every time Israelis say that Palestinians rejected statehood, they look stupid. For decades, every year there is a general assembly resolution that calls for a 2 state settlement on the June 1967 border, and it calls for a peaceful settlement on the basis of International law. The whole world (Palestine included) supporting a 2-state solution, and on the other is there's just the US and Israel voting against it.
@@smag7477 That's beacause the rest of the world doesn't have to live with a community of criminals on their doorstep. In any case there is already a "2-state" solution - it is called Jordan. Three if you include the failed experiment of Gaza.
the fact that the normal israile will never know that it is exist lol@@smag7477
ami ayalon is speaking from a lefty point of view --so he is naturally out of reality
- This is a conversation with 2 left wings retired officers.
- What is this obsession with 2 state solution. Palestinians would never have it. They want 1 state solution i.e. no Israel.
- Who says you can't defeat an ideology. USSR defeated Nazism, Srilanka defeated Tamil Tigers. Now there are few lunatic fanboys exists but more or less ideology is finished.
-These two are really p1ssed with Bibi even in middle of war, so they are putting every blame from past and present on him.
- It is a typical conversation between 2 retired left wings officers talk. Same old two state malarky, same old talk with no energy.
Vishal sharma…😂
0:00 -
- 8:35 - 8:55 “support” as in “votes” because I thought they only plateaued at a ceiling of about 44% (less thn 50%) of the Palestinian vote, or am I off by over 6% 🤔smh I’m confused 🫤
…
Thank you for spending the time to create and share this content awareness
Its not votes but potential votes