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Rolex Prices FALLING!
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- čas přidán 12. 04. 2020
- Why are Rolex Prices Falling, and how much MORE will they fall?? I talk about what I'm seeing currently for prices of Rolex Watches on the gray market. Prices are dropping!
I got my watch from this seller
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Thanks for all the comments! Please keep them coming. I'm categorizing like comments and will be addressing in a follow up video. Also, reaching out this to a long time watch collector who will help detail what he saw in the luxury watch game pre and post 2008. Video to come next week.....Stay tuned!
Good video with common sense, it´s amazing to see how many people are delusional about this topic.
@@ThordurBergmann I think purposefully delusional. Stay tuned for my video next week for a follow up. Thx for taking the time to comment
Hopefully this pandemic will bring Rolex prices to how they were before the steel sport shortage. Just walk into an AD, buy what you want or buy preowned for ~$1000 below retail. That would be ideal. All these grey sellers and flippers buying and selling these watches at 2x retail deserve whatever loss is most likely coming to them.
2 Daytonas please!!😀😀
And non of the above happened. If anything it got worse and prices went even higher.
Rolex knows about the grey market and will keep it the way it is. They need their watches to be in extreme demand for their Brand and limit supply. These prices was last year. You see these prices double today.
The people that are flipping watches are getting screwed. Good! They mess it up for true watch loves.
agree
Totally agree..I am a collector, and the whole flipping culture has prevented me from being able to acquire watches that I really like.
@@easybeaver67 yup. me too! 3-4 years ago.. getting a black/ two tone sub, gmt or even steel dj were not hard.. even in airport
Hope all rolex flippers get screwed. 3-4 years ago you could see subs, gmts, hulks etc at ADs. I Should have bought a Sub back then. Now the flippers and hype is making it impossible for watch enthusiasts to buy a rolex.
@@bigboss337 yup
Let me know when house prices in LA start falling.
Prices didn’t go down :( - only going up. And supply is still crap
Omegas might go up.. that's what happened in 2008-2010 for them.. what yall think?
Like many of you I’ve been following the Stay At Home Orders and for the past week been on CZcams been watching videos of Rolex prices going down. Hands down this is the most thorough analysis. This dude analyzes like a true economist and leaves emotions out the door. Outstanding video!
What a compliment! I'm flattered and humbled my friend. part of the reason why I took a break from making videos was because I did not want to make a video solely to make a video. I wanted to add value. Thank you for reinforcing that this video did this for you 🙏
I agree. I think the difference is that most (at least for me) of the accounts I watch are also watch dealers / affiliated with watch dealers. They cant help but let their personal bias creep into their content and forward looking statements. This is different and fills a void. Well done and thanks!
@@terrybabb2 thanks so much, that means a lot. Yep, no bias here. Just a guy that likes watches 🙋🏻♂️
I bought all mine at retail with some discounts and bought them to wear and enjoy.
Discounts from the AD? Tell us how!??!?🙏🙏
S Such that’s the best choice!
@@LewisMa I have purchased all mine from 3 different A.D's. One A.D has gone bankrupt, but the other two I have built fairly decent relationships with which in turns leads to phone calls. I spoke with one A.D this past Feb asking for a White Dial Daytona which he replied it would be tough , and then he asked me what about the Black Dial? I said the Black Dial is very sexy and he said I'll have one for you this year. Unfortunately now we are dealing with a global pandemic so I am sure my Daytona will have to wait. I am okay with this because the welfare of humanity is far more greater than a watch will ever be! Stay safe and healthy!
@@SS-bp8yq my man. Love the mindset.🙏
S Such you're doing very well😂
So Lewis just watched this back 12 months on...whats your view now ? Rolex prices have rocketed over past 12 months...
A Green 2018 Hulk just sold for $10K on Ebay.
I expect prices to fall well below retail in a few weeks.
Wow! One off? Reputable dealer? Box papers? Great price, I didn't expect that for the Hulk. **Moving some money around 🤣**
I think that one's questionable. The same guy sold the same watch on April 8th for $12K. 🤷🏻♂️
@@LewisMa Most likely the buyer never paid.
Had to drop the price to move it.
That's desperation if you ask me.
Digital Income Automated I would never buy a luxury item on eBay. Regardless of price.
@@betolinni 🤷🏻♂️ I'm happy with mine from eBay
There is absolutely nothing to worry about with Rolex values.
If you happen to be a grey market dealer who bought pre pandemic. Yes you will probably be in a negative situation regarding the making of a reasonable profit.... If you are a private flipper... Then yes you will be on a similar situation.
If you are a Rolex owner who loves the brand and its watches... Then you will have nothing at all to worry about. Your worst case senario would be to hit a low point and then decide to sell your beloved time peice........ In which case. you will have worn your watch for free......
But why would you sell😀 keeping mine! Paul are you looking to pick (another) one up?
@@LewisMa
Thats my point.. I love my Rolex and will not sell.... Hence nothing to worry about price drops..
Gray market prices may decline but they will not fall to MSRP. 2008-2009 was not a housing crisis, it was a financial collapse. That is not the case here. This will pass. Demand is pent up and supply will remain short on Rolex and PP.
hi kevin thx for the comment. I want to address this in my follow up video since there were so many good comments. You think 2008 was more serious than the situation now? not a loaded question...
ty brotha
I also think people are saturating the market with watches from their collection to raise money. Many may be in a pinch.
they have to really be in a bind i dont think dealers are offering anything (relatively) right now
Prices are falling only for models that are commonly flipped.
It also seems like just the resell value is dropping not the actual authorized seller prices I see . This will surely go back up after some time I think
Yes I think the prices at the AD will stay the same
I’ve seen a few boom and bust cycles for luxury Swiss watches in my long career. Of all the brands Rolex is clearly the one that will always come back strong after a down cycle. As far as the latest 10 year up cycle I believe it was largely driven by the growth of the Asian market, especially China. They almost single handily create worldwide shortages of popular models. I agree with you that prices will continue to fall until things start to turn around with the pandemic. But your advise to buy the current dip is sound advice and not trying to wait and catch the perceived bottom. If you’ve saved some money and your in the market anyways, buy that watch at a nicely reduced price off the highs. Pick a reasonable price point to jump in and get that watch you’ve been eyeing. I’ve been watching prices fall and took the opportunity to pick up a couple Rolex that I’ve been frozen out of because of outrageous secondary prices. My NIB Blue Sky Dweller I just picked up was around 20k for a Fullset which is a pretty good price considering it was 25k a couple months ago. I don’t really care if it falls a bit more. It’s a risk either way but at barely a $3700 premium over list price (14800 + tax) it’s worth it to me to pick up the piece and not worry if it goes down another couple grand. When things do turn around they may turn around quickly and come roaring back with a vengeance. There’s still a ton of pent up demand and as you pointed out the supply side may lag behind until things normalize on that end. The way I see it this is a great buying opportunity for those that are positioned to take advantage of it. Long term Rolex will continue to rise in price. For example I was buying SS date Subs in the early 2000’s for under 4k. Virus or no virus they’ll never be that cheap again.
100%! Buy what you like. While everyone likes a deal, these are not stocks. These are pieces we love and enjoy. And to your point, with something we love and enjoy for a lifetime, we will not remember that we might have spent a few hundred dollars more than we should have. Who cares 😀
Congrats on the Blue SD. Beautiful sir.
I completely agree with your point of view. It's the best time to pick it up now before it comes back up. Congrats on your Blue SD. I too was thinking about getting blue SD but didn't want to pay for any premium so went for WG daytona instead.
Oh the WG Daytona’s are so choice. Congrats back. I travel quite a bit so went for the Sky-D first. The Ceramic White dial Cosmograph is on my list though.
evan h yup I fully agree. It's almost like buying shares. You'll never know where the bottom is and at the end you'll miss out. If everyone have a crystal ball, everyone will be rich
Perhaps vintage Rolexes may hold their value better than the newer ones.
Yes we agree as Covid 19 continues to hold back the economy and the 6 - 12 months before a half decent recovery occurs, grey market dealers will not be able to hold on for such a long time - cashflow requirements will kick in - Excellent presentation.
Thx so much
I offered 5% off on an Air King and was basically laughed at. This was after the dealer told me the last one they sold was in January. They are holding firm to make up for lost sales.
The problem is someone will buy it at retail just because it's a SS sport rolex. I think I did the same thing before the pandemic on a ss YMii. Nope
Its was only temporary ... now its Wrong ! they went back up way more In value . Look at the regular maxi case sub and the Hulk ! HA !
now it's 2022, and they have gone up by 3 folds!!!.............there is no point talking about retail prices bcos the majority of us cannot access retail prices
Yup I don't even factor in retail
Hey I’m looking for a white gold 40mm+ day date. What price should I expect to pay?
a natural market correction; they were way too expensive in the first place
Rolex produces 800,000 watch each year every year. They're the largest mass-producer of high-end watches on the planet. Rolexes are found within every last pawn shop in America. They're the one luxury watch that's not rare and everyone's seen. It was only a matter of time before supply/demand equasions started depreciating them.
aged well😂
Never watched this channel before. Very informative and clear content.
Peace from London.
Ty brotha stay safe
I bailed on the brand a couple of years ago. Its comprised of profiteers for the most part these days. No one discusses technical merits any longer, just resale value. As a watch lover, it became nauseating! I know more people who are bored with the brand than they are excited for it.
great point, sorry i misssed this comment. I'm a few ppl here agree with you. I want to discuss in my follow up video
Hopefully this gets things back to the way there were. You used to be able to just walk in and buy a hulk or GMT in most AD's just in 2016. Every model except the Dyatona sold under retail on the grey market, even the hulk and batman.
The price that Rolex sells to the AD will never fall I agree, the AD may drop retail very slightly to make a back as they are desperate.
The grey market will fall but new watches that Rolex sell to will not drop their prices as they do not have to, Rolex SA and Montreu Tudor SA are owned by the Hans Wilsdorf Foundation a charitable trust that uses the money for charitable deeds in the arts and humanities.
Great video and good research!
Thank you, Great factual comment!
rolex price drop? no way. rolex has stopped production ie.. less watches in market, but demand is still high especially steel sports model.. the slight price dropped is because last time the price were jacked up too high. anyway, good review.
Peter still plenty of unsold inventory in the grey market even if production is stopped, I think once cash flow begins to hurt, greys will have to start lowering prices to offload inventory. My 2cents.
@@bevanlim2350 i hope so.. & i really hope those idiots whom have charge huge huge premiums go bust!
me too!
Rolex is now where Harley Davidson was in the early 2000s and Kodak was in the mid 1990s, On the peak, preparing for a fall. Fake shortages (just like Harley Davidson) new generation does not associate Luxury Watches with status.
I bet the price will drop below of the retail price! The food and the payments is more important than a rolex in your wrist
If ur worrying about food and bills after a few weeks of a shut down, I doubt ur the type of customer rolex wants.
Rolex might not get the customers it wants.
@@yasarmo I guess Raf Wong is correct at this point of time.
One small but very important fact about Rolex and their business model. They are listed in Switzerland as a charity organisation. Hans Wilsdorf foundation - All profit. One of few with no AD discounts. Gray market premiums. They can weather any market.
I would guess they are very cash rich but even if they are not they will not change their business model. Thank you for the comment, I agree 100% 🙌🏻
My polar dial Explorer II 216570 price is still holding strong.
And if you're keeping it who cares 👍🏻👍🏻
Thanks for the info Lewis. As I ask the same question about Rolex prices falling in the Rolex Forum and most Rolex owners/collectors get offended by this question. Is that because it's the Rolex Forum, I don't know .
Anyone know any good places to buy reasonable Rolex watches other than Rolex Forum ? Most sellers on here sell at ridiculous prices like the way they used to make good profits when the economy is prosperous .
it's a dirty word. the second someone admits the prices are dropping it affects all the gray market dealers. But the writing is on the wall. Don't be afraid of eBay. Check feedback, go back to check forums. FYI, i got mine on ebay from Collectors 1946.
@@LewisMa Thanks and I'll check that out .
@@knguyen8395 let us know what u get brotha
@@LewisMa I am not able to find that seller on Ebay!? I have visited the Rolex Forum once in a while and the sellers there still sell ridiculous prices!
@@knguyen8395 Google collectors 1946. Same stuff as in their eBay store. That's where I got mine
Nice video and good info! I have a question, is it really safe to buy a Rolex watch from unauthorized dealers such as Joma shop or Jaztime? I’m planning to get a day date 40mm but I’m scared to do so
Hi thanks so much. I'm no expert, just a guy with one Rolex. But yes I would feel comfortable with either of those 2 sites. Maybe some guys with more experience than I do can weigh in
Naps... I suggest to continue or have the Rolex purchase experience at site face-to-face and watch on wrist till you take your bucks out ... Cheers.
ramon ramirez thanks Ramon! Face to face I’d like but I’m live here in California, Joma shop is in New York, Jaztime is here in California too but they don’t have a showroom anymore. Buying online with this kind of money
Said this at the beginning of the virus that the watch market would collapse. There was a bubble of something that we don't need
Most brands sell at a bargain on the used market. Only Rolex steel Sports and Patek Nautilus Aquanaut have kept their inflated used prices. Rolex is no longer “the hot” brand for the Wealthy famous celebrity crowd. Wealthy people still buy Rolex but prefer to wear more high end exclusive brands in public. Rolex knows this. The wealthy buy Rolex only because it’s affordable yet luxury enough to wear w/out looking basic. To them it’s a standard template requirement of some social sort. They buy Rolex like us everyday working people/career people buy Swatch Watches. It’s no longer aspirational for the wealthy and famous to own a Rolex. That Rolex appeal is no longer special with the rich & famous. This is why Rolex are trying to hold on to that aspiration demand. They are trying to become “exclusive” by holding back and will not mass produce for any less than middle class clients. They want to keep that “Rolex is for the wealthy” as long as they can. If you think about it. Rolex is really the mid tier brand in between Casio and Patek Philippe. Rolex (although expensive) fall smack right in the middle. If they over produce they might lose the demand by the working/professional career clients. If there’s too much of something, it will no longer be special or in demand. The other option Rolex has is to increase their prices to compete with grey market value. They do that? They will have full display cases at their AD’s and destroy the grey market flippers.
I had an AD offer to sell me a Daytona at sticker but wanted me to buy another watch...pass. I own few watches but never paid above sticker, never that desperate. Their has been to much money in the market..let clarify..easy money.
Same here. AD wanted me to spend $50k in the store. No thx
John L Nguyen bundling is their new tactic. Absolutely do not do that. Refuse until they give you the offer *you* want.
@@Ferien7 and shop around. my name is at multiple ADs
Lewis, very good, clear and research based analysis. Thank you.
thanks so much. appreciate the feedback
I bought my new explorer 1 6yrs ago and my used late 90s sea dweller 4yrs ago,i don’t give a dime about investment I will keep them for life ,buy them to KEEP!!!
Amen. A lot of ppl here agree with you 💯
Agree!
Aren’t those Daytona’s going for $30k+ now? Or is that just what people are asking and not receiving?
Yeah man they're selling too 🤷🏻♂️
In Italy no discounts up to now
Good insights!
Ty brotha, I'm a fan!
Thanks for
Sharing this .. well done . It’s only the start of the price going down
The good thing about this is that it's shown up a lot of recent buyers as little more than investors with no real interest in watches. So many SS sports watches for sale on the Forums these days now the buyers can see hey aren't getting a immediate profit. Prices need to fall another 20% before I dip back in. £8k for GMT or Hulk interests me but £10k still inflated.
Not in the UK mate. My hulk and batman still holding strong. Got them valued at Hatton gardens for insurance purposes. The sports models holding strong
Looks like the seller made a huge loss selling them low. Look at the prices a year later now. I think rolex keeping their supplies lower during pandemic caused the after market to go crazy high
Lewis - whats your view on the white face Sea Dweller, i jsut bought one at below retail.
you mean the white sky dweller? if so, i love it, because that's the one i have :)
Hoping to see MK2 explorer go for 5k.
Was looking at a Cartier Santos, but now going to wait to see how it plays out.
Me too, would love to see go under retail. Next video out in a few days stay tuned
The stockmarket is doing better than it has in years. The wealthy are making more money, but how many watches do the wealthy need? The wealthy usually get the watches at AD's little wait time to get a watch. The people that are not in the market. Are the everyday guys who work X years to get that Rolex. Those are the people who are not so much in the market at this time. Many people are not working as much or working at all. So holding back production enough for the VIP wealthy customers keeps Rolex in demand. For those of us blessed to be working and able to afford a Rolex or save towards a Rolex. We can't get them at retail at an AD. I always said I'd never pay greymarket prices or double retail for a watch. That's foolish for me. The only watch that I would buy at greymarket prices is the Pepsi or Daytona.
got an offer of 12k on the Hulk full set 2017 from a dealer in my town. good deal?
great deal get it!
and if u dont get it send me the link :)
Supply and demand. Luxury goods have the most elastic demand.
👍🏻
But not if people are addicted to Rolex like the junky to his drugs. Than E is nearly zero. Just view a few videos on watches and you will realize that for many men with money and ‚enthusiasm‘ for watches the first Rolex is a quasi-religious thing. Thank god I‘m not an „watch enthusiast“, that is a man who collects luxury watches but howles if he is asked to pay more than what the list price says. Pathetic.
@@lowersaxon yes there are people who are like that and can actually afford to do so. And then there are people who buy on credit or "invest" in a steel Rolex, which is ill-advised.
I think these watches are already overpriced. Anything over retail is just bonkers.
The back story to luxury goods is the money printing of the last decade - the meltdown of the repo market last september and geopolitical realignments are not good portents for brands that sell on nebulous feelings when the over leveraged are going to have more to worry about than their position on an ADs waiting list. I doubt that things will go back to how they were and some luxury watch brands will probably disappear, although probably not Rolex.
They aren’t falling in the uk they are going up !
awesome! can you give us an example? are you still under shelter in place orders?
Lewis Ma - Maximize your Lifestyle I’ve got two hulks. A 2016 and a 2017. My 2017 for valued at £14995k gbp in January for th march insurance purposes. My 2016 also at £14,500 gbp. You can’t even get on the waiting lists. People paying premium on top
@@immyraja5925 interesting. Way less here. I wonder why people don't take them over there to sell
Lewis Ma - Maximize your Lifestyle I was in SFO and LA just last Month and prices were on par with uk for second hand. No dealers had any in stock. Even in 🇦🇪 it’s all sold out and waiting lists with premiums attached. Prices do fluctuate but the discontinued models holding there prices quite nicely.
Lewis Ma - Maximize your Lifestyle Yes still under shelter. Rolex are hard to find in regards to sports stainless steel. I just bought a 126660 deep sea blue cameron, retail UK its up to £10350. Dealers cant get them anywhere. I managed to get one from an ebay dealer I know, unworn but already registered, warranty card for £11,650. They are going for £12k+ online. Some Daytonas are almost double retail, same for Hulk, Batman, Red text Seadweller and even less popular models like Datejust hold retail value or go for more depending on the face. Rolex have got the market, still. I have read a lot about them going down in price, but in the UK I just dont see it anywhere. If you guys are getting deals less than retail and can even find the sports models then I envy you. I would have killed for a brand new one at retail price. Waiting lists in UK for some models are 5 years and some dealers arent even taking requests anymore.
I see the correction of prices on sport model mainly due grossly overpriced over MSRP. The price will definitely drop due to economic factor but doubt it will further correct close to the retail price as those who are not in need of cash will not consider to liquidate especially the genuine collectors.
Agreed w everything you said here. Thx for the comment🙌🏻
In 08 and earlier not all SS sport models were at AD’s. Most were readily available but not everything. The gray market was much stronger back then. I was a dealer in it, never held inventory, just bought off line and sold at higher prices online. The internet hadn’t woke everyone up yet. People were paying above retail online. Was every easy to make $ in the watch flip game. Post 08.....game over.
Ahh I was trying to find some information when I was researching but could not find it. I imagine models like the Daytona were not available at the AD? were there crazy markups back then when you were a gray market dealer?
It was over after 2008 because of the recession right? Or were there other factors also? I think I want to make a second video based on some great insight from you guys so thank you so much
Lewis Ma - Maximize your Lifestyle there were zero SS Daytona at AD. Less than zero. They reserved them for customers who spent lots of $ on other pieces. Some AD’s would let their sales people pick the customer for a SS Daytona. Which was great because I’d kick them back $500-$1000 on a watch. Then their co-worker would bear about that and bingo! I’d get a call there’s another SS Daytona. Retail was $6800 in 02 or 03 iirc. I’d sell to “dealers” for 10-11k who would retail them online(pre chrono24 days-it was there with nothing on it) for 12.5-14K. I had about 10 AD’s I was doing this with in Vegas/Ca/Fl/Ny. So lots of those & Kermits. And occasionally something else that would be a hot watch for a while. The easy $ ended in 06. That’s about when the internet woke up and educated the buy side. From 2000-2005 we made loads on Rolex and Patek just walking into AD’s throwing down the Black Amex and buying at retail and then below as VIP customers and selling above retail online. It was that easy. Was nothing to make $10-$20K on a Grand Complication Patek 3970’s 5970’s and some other models 5070’s 5100’s and amazingly Nautilus were DEAD-couldn’t give them away for free. Same for Panari-dead. Then panari got hit in a matter of a few months and were 2X retail, then factory adjusted their pricing fast.
Lots more to tell.
Point is it’s a market, what’s hot is hot. That changes. So does the economy and the watches are the first things to go-so their prices drop first, cars then property. I’m old and seen this cycle again and again.
Prices across the board are NOT dropping. There will always be outliers and lowball sales. Your sale references are possibly credible but not considered acceptable in the real watch 2nd hand market. Prices are still staying strong on Chrono24 & Ebay where the real verified sellers/sales occur and can be tracked. Rolex has also stopped production and most likely the rest of 2020. Rolex is use to selling millions of watches a year, with production stopped now the prices will only go up if anything.
It will be interesting to see what happens!
I agree. Grey market dealers won't sell at a loss. But for cash flow reasons as you stated, grey dealers will need to cut profit margins in order to offload stock. This is already happening. The Batgirl is 20% lower in Hong Kong now. Prices will fall a bit more as the situation worsens I reckon.
Interesting. What are some of the models going for?
I buy all of mine at retail, direct from an AD. I just had a Pepsi jubilee sent to me yesterday. $9,700. ;)
damachine3 hi I would like to buy one please Website please ?
damachine3 like to know where is the AD, please, share
damachine3 congrats man... that’s why your “Damachine”
With the current situation, I think the problem with Rolex will be that these watches go back to their original MSRP. However, I would say that if things start to stir up more, as the oil futures crash today, there will be a major lack of cash, lack of liquidity and other strange shit that may come along the way. People who are flipping these will sell them at a discount. I am not saying they will drop to half the MSRP, but if things get worse, and people don't have the time or money to buy this luxury stuff that they don't need, that maybe it will happen. By then if you have cash and some gold, it would probably be better. After all, these are consumer products, not investments. They are not gold bars, and it shouldn't cost that much to purchase a watch. Rolex and it's grey market flippers will have to reevaluate their strategy after this crisis. Their shady way of doing business and jacking their watches up in prices by controlling supplies will not last long. If this pandemic does not stop, they will have to overflow the market with tons of Rolex watches that should be in the market. It makes no sense for second-hand Rolex to go for double the price.
Lewis, can you recommend places to buy rolexes online?
I'm no expert. I only have first hand experience with Collectors 1946. Great prices, and happy with mine. If u find a deal, check feedback, check Rolex forums, and you should be ok!
How about the vintage Rolex market?
a market i know nothing about since I've spent ZERO time researching. Just was not interested in it personally. Would love some feedback from the group here.
Not a good price at all but no waiting list. I wouldn't buy off Amazon to begin with but thought it was interesting that a watch that usually is so elusive is being sold on a platform such as Amazon
Make a video when they fall below Msrp.
Great idea! I'll start w the YMii
Very good analysis! Btw, I recently read the same nytimes article too...
thx so much! appreciate you taking the time to comment. stay tuned for part 2!
Great video man 👍🏽 what did you think of oyster perpetual going down soon?
Thanks brother. Same look and feel of the datejust right? And similar secondary price, right about what retail is? Maybe a little less. I don't think those are as desirable and should be going down faster. Just my opinion!
@@LewisMa just bought a 16233 two tone no hole case, 1700.00 FB messenger sale, offers on black subs, 3500.00 some biting already!!
@@timjkelly2121 email me pics ? Id love to show in my next video. lewis@lewisma.com
Lewis Ma - Maximize your Lifestyle sent👍
Rolex Daytona gold with leather stripe in the very good condition barely used interior blue Arabic numbers what do you think is the value for this watch
hey thx for the comment. that one's not really on my radar. id recommend if thats the specific model u like make an offer. another one just like that probably will be tough to fine
Lewis Ma - Maximize Your Lifestyle
I have this watch I want to know how much it’s worth
It's a buyers market baby!
Good bring back days of heavy discounts on steel at the AD
The only truth in this is that the grey market and second hand market was a big bubble. The ad price isnt going down. So the value of the product stay’s the same, people just arent going to pay more than an new ad model for now.
Yup, I agree
The supply of Rolex watches on the primary market will shrink, indeed. But it won't affect the prices in Rolex ADs which are fixed, but rather a quantity sold to customers and thus total revenues. But when we are talking secondary market, during a recession both the supply of watches increases (people need cash) and the demand shrinks (smaller disposable incomes, uncertainty). I think the prices will continue to fall and will fall below retail. There is thousands of beautiful watches out there, produced by thousands of brands - and 99.99% of them are on the used market below retail :) And although I do agree that there will always be some people with cash, they account only for a small portion of the demand for Rolex, therefore the demand and the prices will keep on falling, there is no doubt about it.
Great inside! I missed at that point in my video but I'm glad you mentioned it. Very true
Too many better quality and harder to identify fakes are flooding the market now days... I can't see how Rolex making 800,000 watches a year guarantee the very highest of quality and workmanship can be achieved every time as the brand once stood for 25 years ago.... and then asking these ridiculously high prices for simply a Stainless Steel watch is pathetic
With all the unemployment, I think there will be a lot of people wanting to sell, and when some have sold all their luxury goods, they will then turn to selling their homes.
Maxwell S and I’ll be there to buy them all up! I’m loving buying shit from people struggling at a discount haha.
AMG_Nick Nice dude....
Wow this is one of your best in depth videos lewis :) good job
where do you find all this listings? and especially the ones from instagram also?
the instagram ones are local (here in Miami)
@@LewisMa i appreciate your answer, so where can i find the best deals, especially worldwide the market probably is even more competitive, because i'm based in europe
@@centralinepowerbox558 i got my watch on ebay last year. Don't shy away from ebay i dont care what ppl say. Look at the reviews, research the company. I think i put in the description who the seller was, theyr'e legit.
Good analysis and I agree.
My AD called me last week and offered me a Hulk at retail....I declined. I’m not on the list for a Hulk...I’m on the list for a Daytona. He told me he went through his Hulk list and everyone declined. So he started calling from other Rolex model lists. I should mention I’ve purchased 2 watches from this AD in the past totaling about $15k and I stop by the shop every now and then to say hello and browse. So I’m not a big client, but we have a friendly rapport. I asked about a Daytona and he said he had no idea when he’d be getting one but if I would give him a 50% deposit, he’d source one for me within 60 days. They’ve never offered me that before and I’ve been on the Daytona list since 2017. He also mentioned that grey market dealers are going to be in a world of pain over the next 6-12 months. Of course I left the 50% deposit :)
Good content Lewis - I’m glad this video showed up as recommended for me. You have a new subscriber.
Thanks for the kind words, and thanks so much for taking the time to subscribe and comment. I think people would be interested to know, which market are you in? I don't think I've seen that here in Miami. I'm one of a few lists as well but no luck just yet. Thx again
Lewis Ma - Maximize your Lifestyle I’m in Staten Island NY, a borough of NYC. I’m pretty sure this is going to become common in many markets in the next few months. Unfortunately, this caution isn’t going to end when our government lifts the “stay at home” orders. Many people will not be venturing into malls, restaurants, and other crowded locations for months. This is going to continue until we have a vaccine or an antibody. Our economy is going to hurt until people get back out there and spend.
@@HermanHerrera 100% agreed. I can't believe they opened some beaches recently in FL. This will have a lasting effect. Stay safe up there
Nice video! Have to say those prices were inside a bubble's bubble.
Getting the first wave of bubble busts😎
I've barely been seeing any price drops looking on Reddit/WUS/eBay. I think Rolex customers are white collar, have assets stashed away, and as of now, insulated from this panic. I originally thought Rolex prices would drop quickly as well, but that doesn't seem to have panned out.
I was trying to find the demographic of the Rolex customer when making this video because i thought the same thing you do. Unfortunately, as you saw, what i found was pretty vague. BUT with it being an aspirational piece (for me personally too) I can tell you while i have some assets stashed away I'm not dropping $10k on any luxury item soon
@@LewisMa Same! Most expensive watch I own is the speedmaster. I don't think anyone should spend more than 5% of their net worth on a watch,
@@lespaulranger I like that rule! i have a similar rule, less than 10% on watches and cars (fun cars, not daily transportation)
Very valuable information. I appreciate your ideas, suggestions, and opinion. Thank you!
THank you ! and taking the time to write this, much appreciated!
Boy was he wrong
Overpriced timepieces . My guess is they will be 50 % down within the next 3-6 months. People who bought them to make money are going to panic.
I don't want one for free.
You won't be getting GMT II's for 5K. Not in 30-60 years
no thanks not for me. i collect real watches
People are just prioritizing what's important, and bling simply isn't that important.
a lot of ppl feel the same way, gonna address in the next video. stay tuned!
Picked up a 2009 kermit with 1 micro scratch on the bezel only for 12,500. I had to pull the trigger.
congrats! watches are still moving! what market are u iN?
@@LewisMa Bay Area California. Just started. Got a datejust and the kermit. Gotta be careful. Its kind of addictive!
@@scottlucidi6476 lol it is. I wanted to pick up that milgauss u saw in the video but stopped myself thinking when would I ever wear that over my SkyDweller? 🤷🏻♂️
@@LewisMa when you have a booger green shirt?😂
Great analysis, the marketing mix added to VALS is the key to Rolex success.
Thanks so much. Check out my follow-up video I just put out 🙌🏻
most people " even with money" aren't buying watches today, guess they know that prices will drop further more. the grey dealers will start to freak out and be forced to move their inventories and drop the prices more to attract buyers. now imagine the majority of us with little money saved to buy our dream watch. what if we used up all our savings? . who's gonna be buying all these watches on the market?.
dealers are regular people who have debts and bills to pay. there's no way for them to sit on a huge inventory waiting for the economy to pick up. what if the recovery isn't near ??!!!. what other options will they have than selling and selling low?.
thank you .great video.
agree 100%!! thanks much for taking the time to commetn
Precio de este reloj
Great video Lewis. I enjoyed watching you compare the prices to their target market. As a senior in college graduating this semester in marketing, this video was very informative.
great to hear! just touching the basics, but glad you liked it! stay tuned
Finally. Someone talking sense. I suspect prices will fall massively for “as new” back to near MSRP and the bottom will fall out the used market completely. Rolex are a mass market proposition, just like Porsche’s. This recession will be so bad just wait until there is a glut of inventory listed and people desperate for the cash flow. It’s a race to the bottom.
i feel the same way. scary situation. thx for the comment brotha, appreciate it
Its still rare to see any GMT 2's for sale.
all black? Batmans? Pepsis? i see them for sale online all the time? Are you in the US market?
I'm in Miami though which is a hot market
How safe is to buy with owners or flippers on FB groups?
I think it's a your mileage may vary situation. I'll tell u when I SOLD my submariner through OfferUp it was a scary situation just cuz I'm walking away with so much cash
Good analysis.
Hey bro long time no talk, How you holding out in the pandemic? What’s your thoughts on stocks I’ve been buying rather than selling! I think that Rolex for 7300 is a great bargain. Send me the link to it? Daytona is out of my price range. Just bought a $9000 thermal scope for hog hunting.
been good man, lots of time (to make videos lol). Yeah, great deal. A view scooped it up for $7k! I was so happy for him. How are U??
First time viewer. Like your vid, man. Good info and I'm fascinated and watching closely.
Thx much!
Is this one of those “that didn’t age well” moments?
The Rolex grey market prices are not dropping because they are 150% overpriced. They are lowering the profit doubling what they paid for them. As many of the models remain unsold, they are adjusting the asking price. The grey market should be retail - at least 25%, until that happens, the prices are not dropping at all.
Rolex retail prices will never drop, they will stop production and shut down the fabric, until everything is over, so will maintain high demand for the pieces they were not available until now. The steel is not expensive nor is the rolesor, gold mixed with steel that Rolex invented and is now selling as high as 5 times the solid gold value, we all know what the material cost. If there are still millions of people that buy a steel Rolex for over 12000, then Rolex will remain untouchable for many years to come.
Great insight. Logan, sorry, are you saying that the gray market will equal retail? Or will be 25% over retail?
@@LewisMa No, I meant that gray market should be 25% less than retail, seeing the prices some ask for, it seems that everything got our of hand.
Too Loud mind boggling
Music Music ... please
my humble request
Thanks 🙏
You mean at the end?
I'm buying my first Invicta.
congrats brotha, buy what u like!
Enjoyed the video, new subscriber. Any more watch content on the way?
much appreciated! thx so much for taking the time to comment. Yes, I'm taking this week to do a lot of research and reading thru all the comments to hopefully put a follow up video out this weekend. stay tuned!
Rolex prices plummet? ... PERFECT!!
Lol ditto🙏
Great and concise info. Thank you.
thx for taking the time to watch and comment, much appreciated
Just got a 12k watch for 500 straight come up its 8 years old 6ct of vvs diamonds with box and unused bands
congrats man