Ray Kurzweil on what the future holds next | The TED Interview
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- čas přidán 24. 07. 2024
- Join Chris for a very special conversation with legendary inventor and computer scientist Ray Kurzweil, recorded live onstage at TED2018. Listen in to hear what the man who makes a living from predicting the future arc of technology thinks is coming our way next - including the specific prediction of when he thinks technology will finally gain human levels of language understanding.
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Many issues we are facing can be solved not only by greater intelligence, but greater kindness is needed.
REAL intelligence breathes kindness - as the elixir of constructive cooperation.
Part of why I'm excited for immortality. Maybe if people could see the extent of how much their actions have an impact on the world, perhaps just by living long enough to see it, some would be "persuaded" to not be so careless.
Awesome interview, thanks for sharing this! This was incredibly cool to listen to this morning, thank you so much 🙏🏽
Ray is a very kind human being.
Don't forget that our learning methods increase exponentially as well. Learning from video is much faster than learning from audio which is much faster than learning from text etc. Not to mention our knowledge of psychology also helps us adapt learning methods to be more efficient as well and human lifespan is getting longer so people have more time to apply that knowledge for advancement. All of it builds of each other to increase technology faster and faster.
… increase technology … more & more … faster & faster …
… for what?
A climate crisis?
very interesting and thought provoking
how can people ever pay less than full attention to a man with such an astonishingly accurate prediction rate for the future
Because he gets it wrong about as often as he gets it right.
Because Moore’s law, physics and engineering
Ross, Agreed. You are right.
He gets wrong more often because Moore’s law broke down
A closer look at most of his "successful" predictions requires a lot of goalpost shifting and trafficking in semantics
I really enjoy watching and listening to 'TED talks', however after listening to the audio of the presenter and Ray Kurzweil discuss such pivotal issues that will change all of our futures radically (almost beyond imagination), the burning desire for the visual lessened considerably. Thanks, a very worthwhile undertaking.
We are all so glad that the audio was enough for you.
Iain M Banks was writing about this stuff in his Culture novels 30 years ago
I just got word that Our Lady Peace is working on a sequel to their epic and genious album Spiritual Machines. Will have some dialogue on Spiritual Machines 2?
Beautiful Inspiring Digital content 👏 ✨ ❤
Ray is awake & alive, a truly great example 👏
This digital recording just stated that he turned 70 -2 weeks ago = 01-29-2018...DOB 2-12-48? He is no longer with us as he was before? He was a very interesting and very intelligent man.
I've long been intrigued by Kurzweil, along with a solid interest in computing, AI and the future in general.
IMHO, some of what technology has delivered has been a positive, yet, some have offered negatives.
Whilst little can be done to stem the tide of this exponential growth in AI, my main fear (that I assume is shared by many) is a loss in traditional like humanity and emotions. We are evolving, no doubt about that. However, this time not so much in a "natural way" as we have in the past. The influences from technology are changing us, and we seem quick to adopt and adapt to these.
Much of mankind are now totally addicted to their cellular phones, we all seem to have ADHD. This example is relevant due to a loss and decline of real face to face human contact. And if predictions are correct, many will eventually spend time living in a virtual world - in some regards this is already true.
I feel it paramount that while we are accepting of what the future offers, we cling and protect our basic human characteristics and our organic self.
However our species evolves, it's going to be an interesting ride - But I won't be around to see the end results.
What you’re experiencing NOW is the future of the past. Even if you get to see the “future” you will, nonetheless, say what we all say, “…I won’t be around.”
I am autistic and I would like to have options for humans, humanoid robots, AI pals, an intelligent AI to learn languages with....as human interaction puts me in sensory overload and flight or fight mode ..
That’s wonderful for you but most people don’t (or haven’t yet) have had to deal with sensory overload.
Although, what the guest is saying is there will be an INCREASE in sensory overload.
People, such as yourself, will be further impaired and future systems will increase the numbers of those who will experience overload … not naturally but by a future construct - man-made through AI.
It starts yesterday dude. No need to think anymore. If i know, then by deductikn, the true power is already adamantly won. We were pets and always will be.
When was this recorded?
2018. It's hard to find anything from Ray after 2020.
Hope he's doing well
This is a much better interview. Chris Anderson is the man. Predicted ChatGPT a decade late. But ChatGPT is not semantics-based apparently but predictive.
has he given any recent talks?
Predicting The Future: Ray Kurzweil and Rabbi Adin Even-Israel Steinsaltz (from a year ago)
2018 interview
There are no recent interviews. He disappeared since the pandemic.
Ty
Why not have video with these interviews? Are we going backwards technology wise?
23:27 "Over time the non biological portion of our thinking will become more predominant. In fact it will become powerful enough to fully understand, and model, and stimulate, and recreate the biological portion. But a whole other theme is, we're gonna have more powerful technology to keep our physical bodies going, and we'll be able to express ourselves with more than one body. People will think it's pretty primitive that back in 2018 people only had one body and no backup, and they couldn't back up their mind file."
The back up is immortal spirit. Material Universe is limited, no matter how intelligent you get. Spiritual Universe is unlimited.
With NOOOOO idea about what happens after death.
I didn’t realize you could come to a legitimate theory with only half the information.
I can see a metaverse where we have the option to rate the consciousness level from 0 -10 on service avatars/A.I.'s .
There is not going to be one Metaverse there is going to be billions of them. Each person will have their own verse.
When people talk about AI doing a terminator what they do not understand is that there will be billions of AI working for people.
Perhaps our greatest hope is that, since well educated people tend to be more empathetic towards others and solve to some degree what are known to be existential problems, we can hope that a super intelligence would be more empathetic than us and be able to solve problems that are far beyond the capacity of our biologically based intelligence.
9:45 pissed that you didn't ask him "how"
That's a bold claim
Look up Kartik Gada here on CZcams, if you like Ray
Consciousness - the final frontier - when as a species we have created general AI and humanoid robots that can make habitable dwellings on Mars, when we understand chemistry and physics at nano and quantum scale, when we essentially can create energy and matter from any other matter - will we understand consciousness ?
11 years turned out to be a couple years... the singularity is on the horizon
How has this only received 9.6k views? (as of Nov 2021) I was lucky to meet and talk with Ray Kurzweil on a couple of occasions and his mind works on a different level to most people. Very nice man who is gracious and pleasent to be around. I love the idea of being able to live forever, though pretty sure Ray said the same thing in the 90's about what would happen by 2020, so I expect he is a decade or so out... maybe a little late for me (even at 44 years old as I write this), but I would love the chance to be around to see the future.
Not everybody is interested in this and even those that have the engineering skills will dispel such ideas.
And then everybody is surprised when a certain AI milestone is achieved acting like it just came out of the middle of nowhere.
A world full of fascinations is my desire, Technology meets the imagination to create endless possibilities for nearly anything. Biotech, cybernetics, alternative energy, biochemical engineering, DNA engineering. Moral think tanks established for progression of technology constantly interchanged by the society, Where Honesty provails, Greed is unwanted, and progression for humans gives us purpose... With all fail-safes to prevent miniature black holes that become unstable or creating mutant creatures that would be considered immoral
Wow
At the moment none of the computers on the internet understand No, Not , or Only
a pity that he doesn't invent something new with music instruments anymore...that would be awesome ...movement is sticking in that area
I'd kill for a guitar that makes whatever chord I'm thinking
Right … like he’s going to tell us something we don’t already know.
He won’t share the ENTIRE truth.
Just enough to buy his next book.
The Singularity Is Near
Singularity is end of human and beginning of Borg. I want no part of that. There is always a price, the price is your spirit.
Ai vai expandir vertiginosamente, e o ser humano poderá estagnar ,virá tudo pronto sem nenhum trabalho.
kurzweil is the single most influential man alive. hard to grasp
try diamandis too. they collab anyway.
Would you say influential, or accurate.
When I think of influential, I think people doing the work, like Elon, Jobs, or Chamath. But Kurzweil mainly speculates on the work of others. Agree?
@@connorhood6490 If he was nothing but a futurist, I absolutely would agree, but he is also an inventor. I don't know about 'single most' influential though.
Because he makes no sense
@@anastasia2657 I think he does though it is difficult to imagine matter like rocks being infused with intelligence throughout the galaxy in effect waking up the universe throughout time. That seems feasible but it seems shortsighted to leave out the liklihood of coming against other civilizations. oh, and theres no promise our species will be a part of this because we certainly wouldn't be necessary for any clear reason
24:30 biotechnology
Where are the predictions about eugenics and planned pandemics?
R animals not sentient
Dont they feel pain and love
Yes and till the price tag is revealed!!! Judging from the present price tag WE ONLY LOST our ability to TRAVEL TO BREATH TO HUG TO WORK TO DANCE AND ENJOY LIFE. You know what you can keep your singularity i will keep mine.
UBI that you can live very well on for the entire world by 2040 😂
UBI is coming much sooner it seems, what do you think stimulus checks were? UBI pilot program.
AI is already taking yo job
the way he said western = richer countries. brutal...
I wanted to study philosophy instead of medicine. Turns out that would have been the better idea.
So wild that this 'video' has just over 8.5k views (listens) and the video of a local car crash posted this morning already has 15k. Life changing, world changing, high-level stuff = *crickets* but inconsequential sensational things get so much attention. Over generations, where does this mindset get us? (See: The Meme Machine by Susan Blackmore)
people are not interested in the future
@@mesofius Exactly ! These dumb folks trust BIG PHARMA and get vaxxed now into oblivion. Reminds me of a nice qoute from a girl:
"Most folks are better off d e a d" 😆😁
@@AL_THOMAS_777 funny seeing an antivaxxer here. You know Ray Kurzweil is pro-vaccinations, right?
Because most people are stupid. And that's why Ray's prediction take about 2.5x longer than they were supposed to (but they are gradually becoming reality). He underestimates how dumb most people are, because he surrounds himself with highly intelligent, smart individuals, who think on a high-level (like Peter Diamandis, Lila Ibrahim, Demis Hassabis or Larry Page for example).
AI has wiped out every alien civilization in the universe and we are next.
@20:25 "the 2030's we will merge with intelligent technology we're creating"
Most will take this prediction to mean use of a direct brain-machine interface to an AI, like NeuroLink.
That may eventually happen, but in the 2030's I suspect it will mainly mean that we'll have very smart personal digital agents that help us understand and deal well with an increasingly complex world, with mostly voice interaction.
If any sort of body implant is involved, it'll likely be bio-powered sound transceivers that let us listen to music and make voice calls, but also discuss things with or give commands to our personal AIgent.
So if robots are going to take over and do all the work for humans, does that mean money will go away and everything will be free and we can just print on 3-D printers everything we need and robots will be doing the farming providing the food etc. so there will be no need for money
Lol
Great video if you want commercials ad nauseam! Viewers open this because they are interested in Kurzweil. Not to line your pockets with pennies.
then go interview him yourself if you're unwilling to pay
This is how we pay for all that ubi
Just because you had some good ideas doesn't mean you have some crazy stupid ideas. What is sad is that people don't use their own brains and just follow crazy ideas.
it is simply not true any more that computers are getting exponentially better.
Computers are not getting exponentially better; computation IS getting exponentially better.
@@varblade821 is it?
As an 18 yr old now, it fills me with a physical feeling of thrill to think this is a likely future.
AI might kill everyone though
@@joshjoshjoshjoshjoshjoshj huh, why would the AI kill anyone
As an 18 yr old I believed Kurzweil, but many years later, today, the future is not what he described. In his books and talks, 2021 would be already very sci-fi like, which is not the case. I read his books twice, so I would know.
@@Kynareth6 well I guess we’ll see. I sure keep seeing more and more Tesla’s around, and it’ll only keep growing. Self driving cars maybe? I’m yet to read his books or learn about this in a deep way so idk
@@topdog5252 Just be careful. Kurzweil is wishful thinking and simplifying things. Change is more gradual. Back in the 00s, I thought that 10s would be crazy fast and impressive. Not really. Smartphones are just as stupid as they were 5 years ago. The #1 problem is the number of stupid people, which is staggering. U.S. life expectancy decreased in recent years. Kurzweil thought it would be 100 years or so by now. Really, it could be 90 years if all people started living healthier. I can see Kurzweil living to at least 100 years old. His mother Hannah Kurzweil lived to 94 years old and medicine is getting somewhat better.
… where meaning and purpose has been reduced to speed, stuff and things.
Humanity? Morality? Truth? Kindness? Caring? Community? Unity? Humanness…
Loneliness has become so prevalent where there are entire COUNTRIES that actually have departments to help their citizens deal with this phenomena that began growing alongside “industrial/technological progress.”
Where the world has become too big to care.
Too bad that Ray's work peaked in 2015. Since then, he has just been milking the clock.
I remember those days Ray kutzweil was like the God on AI
@@ke6944
Yes sir. At one time he was Da Man. He was scary as hell. The Machine and Man Mind Meld.
His new book "The Singularity is Nearer" is coming next year.
@@Kynareth6 🤣🤣🤣
@@Kynareth6 I don't think he's going to live to see it.
Universal basic income should start now, nobody wants to work already. 😂
Hasn’t china already won the AI race? Currently speaking
According to one Pentagon official as recently as October 2021.
It is not a race it is not even close. China simply has no where near to the level of AI that the west has nor the material sciences to enable such advancements.
Computer architecture is the future of AI not so much pure raw computing power.
I’m concerned about how china has already won the AI race!
No they are not even close.
The US is orders of magnitude greater than the EU and the EU is then orders of magnitude ahead of China.
The main hurdle China has is that their authoritarian approach does not generate creativity. China is good at copying but not good at innovation.
To say "we have UBI now" & then to say you will live comfortably, means to me that you truly have 0 knowledge about what the 50% of people are only threatened with loss of the benefits that are not enough to live comfortably on right now while shaming those same people for being crushed by the elite. As long as Ray gets the best he thinks everything is working great.
I have a feeling he will be right on the small things, like self driving cars and renewable energy, which we all know it gonna happen in the near future. Then he gonna be wrong on the big things that really matters like radical life extension and singularity
Then if he will still be alive by 2045, he will say he got it right 50% lol
Right now most of the large AI companies have extra ordinary systems that can do amazing things that would surprise most people.
Due to the complexity of such systems they simply cannot be made into products at this point because they cannot scale.
In 10 years time most of those amazing AI systems will be scaled and at internet level network systems. IBM Watson is already an enterprise system and in 10 years time it will be a standard tool that everybody has access to.
So what am I saying is that human level innovation will be present in large scale systems that are applied to biotechnology.
A simple DNA test today costs $100 and in ten years time it will cost less than a $1.
@@bighands69 A DNA test cost $100 and a gene therapy $1 million. who the hell can afford it?? We have the technology but 99.9% can't afford it. That's the world we live in. It will not change so quickly checked a gene therapy for eye blindness cost $1 million and it is already 5 years like that. maybe another 50 years something will be available to the public.
I like listening to Ray Kurzweil a lot, but something is missing. Computing power can not provide intuition. This talk is from 2018, self-driven cars seemed an inevitability then. But they now appear further away than ever. Driving is far more complicated than the geniuses ever contemplated. Yet, the biggest fools in the world can drive. How come? The role of intuition is outside computation.
Intuition is not beyond computation; intuition IS computation.
The digital world is overrated.
How about getting rid of 7billion with a b
To make room for AI???? ANSWER THAT ONE MR RAY KURZWEIL. Dont give me the cheese to walk into the trap that longevity shit.
Over rated fortune teller.
Another lunatic from sillicon valley....
Satanism
👌