Wait...Interest Rates Cuts Will Be MORE Restrictive Than Hikes? | Cameron Dawson
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- čas přidán 20. 05. 2024
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After a blowout Q1, stocks swooned in April, raising concerns the bull rally had ended.
Nope.
The bulls returned in May and as of this recording, the S&P, the Dow and the NASDAQ are all trading at all-time-highs.
Wall Street is confident, the financial media is downright gleeful, and the market momentum has a lot of tailwinds behind it right now.
But...there are headwinds, too.
Which will win out as we head closer to the uncertainty of the November elections?
For perspective, we're fortunate today to talk with Cameron Dawson Chief Investment Officer at NewEdge Wealth
Cameron thinks that markets still have room to run here. But she warns that if the Fed starts cutting rates later this year, it may have the OPPOSITE effect of what investors are hoping for.
#interestrates #ratecuts #investing
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Why did you post that 'Fuzzy Panda' like hit piece about Primerica?
Let me summarise what is going on under the surface.
*** The public taxpayer is funding the rise of a handful of corporations and a small percentage of the population getting richer. They seem to win whatever Central Bank policy is.
This is why most land assets and wealth creating ability is getting even more concentrated in their hands.
So we shouldn't be asking why poverty stricken nearly homeless young man aren't having families or children anymore
This has to be one of the best episodes yet. Knowledge bombs are being dropped left and right.
She is only talking about the health of cash rich large corporations... Which dominates GDP values.
Small companies right now are in a recession. They don't have the access to credit and they don't have the savings to get significant interest payments.
Public taxpayers are funding the rise of corporation in some weird twisted version of feudalism
To be a successful business owner and investor, you have to be emotionally neutral to winning and losing. Winning and losing are just part of the game. Risk comes from not knowing what you are doing.
People dont understand that the prices of things are never going back down. This inflation is deeper than we think. Those buying groceries are well aware that the real inflation is much over 10%. The increments dont match our income, yet certain investors still earn over $365,000 in stocks and assets. Wish I could accomplish that.
Very possible! especially at this moment. Profits can be made in many different ways, but such intricate transactions should only be handled by seasoned market professionals.
Some persons think inves'tin is all about buying stocks; I think going into the stock market without a good experience is a big risk, that's why I'm lucky to have seen someone like mr Brian.
Finding yourself a good broker is as same as finding a good wife, which you go less stress, you get just enough with so much little effort at things
Brian demonstrates an excellent understanding of market trends, making well informed decisions that leads to consistent profit
Cameron gave the best explanation of why things are the way they are. Pure awesomeness.
I'm old enough to remember when Cameron was a male name from a Scottish clan 😅
I would echo the sentiment that this is one of your very best episodes. Cameron is extremely good at explaining relatively complex topics in a way that 'mere mortals' can understand
Allen you're hitting the ball out of the park with Pomboy and Stephanie . Both intelligent and easy on the eyes.
Pomboy is an Aryan, the worst possible kind.
Common folks !! Let’s get Adam to 100k 🙌
Who you calling “common folks” ?
That’s demeaning.
@@petergozinya6122 I think he means 'come on, folks!' 🙂
liquidity=government spending. GDP=government spending.
Love the username. Super true. Wonder how long it'll be until every McDonald's worker is a millionaire.
Imagine if inflation was documented accurately before adjusting nominal GDP into net GDP. In reality we have been in a recession since 2020.
Sad but true
@@thomasjones2067 Agreed. I've heard some cases that we never got out of the 2008 crisis, which I thought was interesting. Maybe it's true, but times were pretty nice pre-lockdowns, so I'm not a subscriber to that school of thought.
We are a debt based Dig a Hole, Fill a whole fraud economy wrapped in a Ponzi scheme
Sometimes I just don't know what planet Some of these analysts are on because they live in their own world she was talking about. Realestate is hanging in there. Mortgage applications are at all time Historically lows
prices are hanging in because or have been hanging in because inventory has been so low real estate prices are set at the margin, which is why you're seeing Arizona Phoenix, Texas Dallas, Austin, Florida is coming down faster than the financial crisis, once the supply changes it's game over. This is also true of the consumer debt/of credit card. She was referring to people have jobs but they don't have enough disposable income to pay their bills even subsistence so they have to use their credit cards for food And the longer goes on the worse it is , we would have been better having a recession two years ago and cleansing the system out once the recession does come there is so tapped out they're done in a month and a half
Seriously
Recession? Thi king DEPRESSION now
I agree, all industries have had notable layoffs in 2024 - some of these include: Manufacturing, Retail, Hospitality & Tourism, Construction, Financial, and big losses in Technology. It appears layoffs are not going to cool off anytime in the near future.
She seems jovial and amicable enough.....(Environmentally sheltered)
But she will be on a very high wage and completely unaware of how the bottom 50% are getting destroyed.
I know people working full-time on minimum wage and not eating enough food calories because they are sacrificing themselves for their children
It's denial, the system they supported and live off of is failing and they know it deep down. thing is, you can stave it off while you find ways to off load your garbage.
You're right about better off having a recession a couple of years ago. Recessions are normal. They are part of the financial cycle.
We have been kicking the can down the road for so long now. If truth be told, we should have let the banks go bust in 2008 instead of bailing them out with public money. They set a precedent then and it's clear that the banks won't ever be allowed to fail en masse. As soon as we get anywhere near to an environment when that could happen, rates will be cut very quickly, back to 1% or even lower. By maintaining current rates where they are, they are trying to buck the market. The market wants rates to go lower, and one way or another they will..
What a great guest Adam! First time listening to Cameron. Super sharp with such a warm personality. As soon as she mentioned she eats at Golden Corral, that's all it took. That tends to be a boomer and family place. She melted my heart since that's my circle meet-up of friends place. Quick story: The Golden Corral I eat at is in New Braunfels, Texas and the management asks if they have permission to take the phone numbers of the elderly so if they start to miss a couple of days, they call them to see if they are alright. Because of that, the manager sent one of the waitresses to go to this elderly gentleman's place and check on him since they could not contact him by phone. He was bedridden in very dire condition and an ambulance was called and his life was saved. Thank you Adam for all you do and your marvelous guest.
Makes sense. Eating at Golden Corral everyday is not a great life extension strategy.
@@knightsaysneep8204 Golden Corral has very healthy choices if one chooses to eat there. Many of these older folks are alone now and this restaurant offers from healthy salads, protein and yes, dessert if you like. I see many older widowed men there that probably do not cook and at least can still get out and eat an array of different meals. All restaurants, even your 5 star serve non life extension crap food if you so choose and would not give two cents about you as long as your credit card is good.
Get Adam channel to 100k let’s goooo🔥🔥🔥🔥
She is such a bright woman. Has more brains than all the analysts on CNBC combined. First time I hear someone giving a reasonable explanation why corporations are not under stress yet.
Thank-you very much for having Cameron on! 😀 Please have her on again in a few months! I was so pleased to FINALLY have someone explain for the first time in 1.5 years a hidden insight of why we have seen overheated liquidity and unexplainable market highs in the face of what was to be "tightening". I'm sure you also appreciated her new insights about how the net effect of higher interest rates has actually benefitted the biggest S&P500 companies with immediate high interest cash flow, while they still benefit from 5 year debt at ~ 0%. Like others, I have been getting tired of the countless smart investment & econ experts laying out their many good 'logical' graphs and similar 'sound' cases for a bearish economic outlook for 2 years, but it never came to fruition. Cameron hit on something NEW & real in identifying that interest rate hikes have actually provided net liquidity (thanks to 12 years of suppressed rates) ... ironic how cuts will likely bring on reduced major co. earnings that so many smart pundits have been forecasting were supposed to happen with the rise in rates.
Cameron is missing the fact that the unemployment number is heavily skewed and also doesn’t account for workforce participation numbers. We are in a recession
Lol. But it never has. So we've always been in recession
Cameron Dawson is a total class act. She has it all and then some.
Interest rates are not high for well run companies offering products and service that people want or need. The companies that fear these rates are mostly the ones who have never made any money (though the principles have gotten rich) and need near free money to keep the party going, and are astonishingly overpriced. Many valued in the billions. Rates have been much higher in history and rates around 5% to 7% is a healthy range for the economy. It also provides funds as it should for both consumers and businesses. Rates too low equals higher prices for the consumer and rates too high equals less demand. So these interest rates are not a headwind for properly run companies with in-demand products and services. I think the biggest factors in this economy that keeps it rising when the data suggests it should be falling is the massive influx of money by the government that makes its way and has made its way to tens of millions of consumers who should be working (not including legitimate social security for citizens who have earned it), to businesses who were given money during covid that probably mostly went into their pockets, bailouts of poorly run businesses, subsidies for unprofitable business ventures like solar and EV's, and through all of that and I'm confident much more, much of this money makes its way the markets. Couple these props along with the media hype and the retail investor is still plowing money into the market. Volume by the big players has been dropping while the retail consumer is still buying stocks that are way overpriced.
please add time stamps so that people can navigate to the section that they want to. as an example look at David Lin's interviews and how he time slices his interviews.
It's really fantastic how much knowledge about economic relationships Cameron shares here without reading from anywhere.
Thank you both, Adam and Cameron!
Fascinating and eye opening, this goes right along with a statement Michael Howell made in an interview today that lowering interest rates could actually tend to lower inflation.You must have Cameron back!
Thank you both for a very interesting and informative discussion. Please have Cameron back again!
Cameron has brought a lot of perspective as to why some of the more dire predictions haven’t come to pass yet. A very knowledgeable lady that I hope to hear a lot more of in the future!
Awesome interview as always. Thank you, Adam!
Awsome Macro with Cameron. Please bring her back !
I really need to get an astronaut statement piece in my living room like Cameron’s.
Cameron is an amazing guest
Great interview. She is very smart and is the only person I have heard that see things concerning the t-bill income feedback loop the way I do. Great job.
Great interview and Adam is a great host, polished and professional. A lot of CZcams channels are a bit too casual
Can’t say I agree with all of Cameron’s assessment but there’s no doubt she’s a bright professional who’s going to do well in her career. She can rip commentary extremely succinctly and exudes confidence while presenting in a very charming manner. She will be a strong guest going forward..
Exuding confidence doesn't make your statements accurate.
I hope to live to a day where people are educated to understand such things
@@penderyn8794 is this an attempt at dig at me? Read my comment once more and try again. There’s no shame in complementing women who present well.
Great stuff, thanks again!
Brilliant ! Amazing information ! Thank you very much !
Great guest - very smart commentary. Thank you.
Wow, what a great guest she’s terrific
Thank you Adam
Great questions Adam. You continue to gain great insights with your interview questions.
Really like this information
Mac and cheese buffet? Uh uh. Not her.
Golden Corral, Bensalem, PA, riot 2022. lol
Cameron is a great guest and very easy on the eyes
1:06:50 Very profound advice!
Great advice, apply it in all aspects of life.
She is amazing. Great insights.
Great episode! Thank you for sharing such insightful and essential factors in Macroeconomics!
excellent episode
This was REALLY good, came over from the audio version to comment this
Thank you!!
excellent guest!
👏🏽 great video
It took me over a year to find a new job. Most job listings are not real. At least in med tech, the same jobs have been posted and reposted many times over the past year.
I find the job market exhausting. Back in my dad's day, you would just ping across your CV. Now you are supposed to write from scratch your entire history on each application, you have to fork out for your travel expenses for an interview (companies used to reimburse), and then mostly you never get feedback if they don't want to hire you. I really cannot be bothered with all that, so decided to opt out!
You need a different job hunting strategy. I have some expertise in this area and have coached a lot of people for free (friends, church, etc.). The info on how to run job searches and get noticed by employers - especially if you have a good skill set - is out there if you look for it. CZcams has some great videos on great ways to manage your job search.
Cameron is wicked smart.
Liked another episode.. great content that Adam always brings.. !!
She’s one of the few who can have a serious conversation with a great smile at same time. Don’t care for the green screen background. First time I’ve heard the net interest explanation for why liquidity eased with rates hikes.
Brilliant, I enjoyed that, thanks for having Danny on
Fantastic
Terrific interview, with great insight. Her concluding remarks were terrific as well. Thank you
I’d love to see Cameron on with Danielle DiMartino Booth to debate the recession narrative. Danielle strongly believes the recession started in October ‘23.
Is there any question who would dominate that argument? DDB
Only one of them has 'luscious mounds' of information.
Danielle is a Fed psy op. Who cares?
She's been saying recession for years.
Wow, what an interview.
This is a great episode that conjurs to mind: "Do you want to be right or do you want to make money?"
When the really attractive and smart women are getting into economics you know we're heading toward better times
This has nothing to do with the validity or content of what she says.
But it is good to see women being able to be in all industries. Although I still see very few women in heavy manual labour
I have an answer to the mystery of how Canada's housing market has remained resilient on the price side of things. That answer is banks essentially extending and pretending amortization periods upwards of 60-fucking-years. That's right, non-performing loans where the borrower is not only paying off principle but isn't even paying off the interest and the loan is growing. IIRC CIBC said 20% of their mortgage loan book has values growing and our federal government just announced an increase from 25 year amortizations to 30 year amortizations. I've heard there are people in duress extending out to 60 year amortization windows. Extend and pretend ... all bullish as it's simply deferring the inevitable and keeping homes elevated while keeping housing unaffordable for us younger generations here in Canada.
How can a guy focus on the topic with such a breath taking woman. I kept having to replay parts to see what she was talking about? Asking for a friend? Thank You. Jim.
Please have her back!
Smart lady
Brains and beauty. That does not happen that often. Please have her as a guest more frequently.
Finally Adam gets educated on how the current system really works...
Bring her back again!
I love her knowlege and her smile 🤑😍
Excelent interview Adam, Cameron is such a great guest! The negative interest expense theoy is just awesome as an explanation of the rising tide of liquidity seen in 2023 and 2024. Please, bring her back to the show Adam. Anyway, almost 100k subscribers in half a year? Wow, congrats mate, well done, keep it up!
2022 wasnt a typical recession. The yield curve illustrates this clearly. Rather, 2022 was simply a shock reaction to the artificial world of 2021. 2022 did essentially none of the things recessions need to do to allow for another bull run.
The Canadian housing market has held up mainly due to government spending and an immigration rate significantly above average maintaining the demand side.
I really hope someone at the debates brings up all the deficit spending both those guys do and how they plan to ever get us out of this doom spiral…we all know the answer though, it’s the next guys problem
How did negative rates affect EU ?
Ghostbusters quote is Top 3 Adamism to date.
Almost to that 100K level, totally well earned. Thanks for the great content. :)
When does the liquidity dry up?
Congratulations. You two have come so far.
what about the space suit in the background ?
Housing in TN had doubled over the past few years since the pandemic. Consumers are fueling the inflation by continuing to pay higher prices for houses and also rent.
Consumers are also making more money, which is why limited quantity assets can charge more.
consumers are making more money😂😂😂😂
@@mpconstructs6048 Real wages have gone up. Anybody with savings and investments made bank. It sounds like you have no skills that is valuable enough to warrant being paid more on an inflation-adjusted basis 😉
I really gave up on listening to a bunch of bears talk about recessions and being wrong on timing. Really like Cameron's acessment!
Exactly. Sooner or later Adam will get his collapse
OceanGate Economics is flourishing. This thing will never implode... until it does... catastrophically! Then all the bull analysts become instant experts on the limitations of carbon fiber.
Wonder how much consumer spending is coming from earned income (having a job) and how much is from rentier income (having investments). How does this difference effect inflation? These days there seems more opportunities for rentier income than earned income. Hence the widening gap among consumers.
Retirement spending is very inflationary. All the money retirees saved up in their lives gets spent back Into the economy with nothing produced to represent all the demand. When workers work and then spend, they are also producing while they consume. Retirees only consume and increase demand without increasing supply.
all i know is im missing out by not having an astronaut in my office
Im still trying to wrap my head around this.
Find your top three guests that can play instruments & get a band together. The band name is Adam Laggart and the After Effects. First album title is pig in the python. Rock ‘n’ roll man! 😎
Love it! John Hussman on lead guitar!!
Uh wow, I’m gonna need to watch this one a few times
NVDA🚀🚀🚀🌙
I'm curious about the astronaut in the background. Or is it a Halo trooper? Anyway, where might such an item be procured?
Lots of people have already said interest rates coming down won’t do anything. It’s called a liquidity trap.
LETS GO!!.
So this time is different? Lots of good points making it sound different.
Very very interesting in how companies have cash in 5% bonds and their balance sheet with regard to rate cuts and the following recession likely to follow given the loss of interest.
Cameron Dawson 😍
July 26th
oo yea
Did they immunize their BSs b/c of the inverted YC?
I didn’t take into consideration as to exactly how much was printed and how long it will take for things to come back down to reality.
People are struggling. If there is even a hiccup, it feels like things will crumble.
8:27 Great observationa and great question.
Long answer and no recession conclusion seems to be whistling past the fiscal dominance graveyard.
Banks aren't making loans having to pay higher rates on the short term and lending long. And people aren't borrowing.
The government can't sustain the interest payments on this out of control criminal fiscal abuse/"liquidity".
Good follow up on the lag,... every day you hear about some major company/chain closing stores and laying off workers and unemployment edging up,.. as Adam brought up.
Cammy, talk to me about the TLT
Financial Conditions indices are deceiving. Mostly due to stock bubble prices. Not really more liquidity.
the companies with all the cash are the huge tech firms. they won't be hurt by lower short rates. the companies that need to refi medium-long term will indeed be hurt by higher rates at those maturities, and lower short rates will neither help nor hurt them.
Great interview. Adam, her twitter handle is misspelled when it comes up on the screen!
Wow , I saw her appearance on Fox Business channel today .
Cameron's statement that "Consumers, when they have money, they spend money" is not true in all situations. When the overall consumer mood is positive, that is true. But when the mood turns sour (and their is plenty of evidence of that), they tend to keep their wallets closed.
Mood does not seem to be dependent on economic conditions. In fact, the reverse occurs. In a rising mood, shown by a rising share market, rates can be rising but that is water off a duck's back as in 2023. In 2020 through 2021, the government optimism was such to spend more than $5 trillion on support, incentives, relief and health. I say optimism because US government debt was already $22.7 trillion at the end of 2019. Clearly no fear that debt was heading to a point beyond realistic prudence. That Federal spending did not continue through 2022. Optimism was failing again as shown by the share market fall from January to October 2022. Despite strong job growth, unemployment was actually rising. Mortgage rates were rising and hit 5.49% by May 2022. After the splurge on housing at historically low rates during 2020 and 2021, fear was back, this time with the banks. From Nov 2021 trough Apr 2022 the Fed was a net seller of mortgage backed securities which is Quantitative Tightening (even though QE did not officially start until June 2022). Another indication of the falling mood reflected in the falling share market in 2022 was the US entering a proxy war with Russia after the Russian invasion of Ukraine (wars are always a sign of declining mood). The PCE (Personal Consumption expenditure) peaked in June 2022 at 7.1% but falling by October and down to below 3% by Dec 2023. Despite rates having risen so fast, the share market strengthened all through 2023. Fear at the FED had lowered enough ( i.e. optimism rising) for Quantitative Tightening to begin in June 2022 and continue all through 2023. The blantly misnamed Inflation Reduction Act passed in Aug 2022 will do the exact opposite. The $783 billion to subsidise the new energy dreams will only had to consumer and business costs because, as usual, it is being funded by that wonderful bank residing in thin air. Today, in late May 2024, the share market is looking troubled again because confidence is ebbing, consumer spending is weakening and the FED has eased back on QE.
Not just a pretty face---Great points