Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Says Poll Shows He Could Beat Trump | 538 Politics Podcast
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- čas přidán 5. 05. 2024
- In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, we ask if a new poll from the Robert F. Kennedy Jr. campaign is a good or bad use of polling.
Plus, college graduation season is getting underway, with a spotlight on campus protests over the war in Gaza. Some universities have canceled commencement events after local police were called in to numerous campuses to disband encampments and make arrests. All of this is focusing attention on the youth vote and how these scenes could shape Americans’ votes this fall. Download the full audio podcast episode: itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/f...
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Podcast: itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/f...
Download the full audio podcast episode: itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/fivethirtyeight-politics/id1077418457?mt=2
Will you guys be posting on Spotify for those of us on Android?
yeah, i won't be doing that, if you are not posting FULL VIDEO podcasts on youtube anymore i won't be listening (watching) and based on many of the comments on this vid, many will not either. please reconsider. thank you!
This is a huge disappointment that you all have stopped posting full episodes on YT. I hope you reconsider. I'm not going to Apple or Spotify.
I'm guessing the monetization on apple is the best, however I struggle to imagine that the ever lost making Spotify pays it's content creators much ..or even honestly.
@@nicebluejay Me neither. Bill Maher tried to profit off Kennedy's popularity too. Screw HBO Max, Bill Maher AND 538.
i'm gonna be rly annoyed if I can't listen to the full podcasts here anymore
Me too
Clearly just trying to coat-tail on RFK, Jr.'s popularity. Bill Maher did the same thing for HBO Max.
I use YT as my main feed after mainstream news sources (BBC, Reuters etc) The big monetised podcast feeds are just watched by wealthy middle class white people, and a bit of a bubble.
Time will tell. RFK Jr is growing and his campaign is playing a much craftier hand than I anticipated.
The worm in his head is dead, but his personality has survived. His chances are a random dice roll.
I do not download podcasts. Please post in full here on CZcams.
I agree. RFK, Jr. clickbait. Total BS.
Take a Stand with Kennedy/Shanahan!
No more polarization, no more Biden, no more Trump. RFK all the way!
YES!
@@Over50z Mr. Kennedy is fighting to *continue* his father's desire for the improvement and unity of our country for generations to come! RFKJ embodies Bobby Sr's message: "We're going to try to improve not just your lives, but more importantly the lives of your children" ~RFK
Let’s abandon the parties. Why not? What have they done for us? Nothing. We have nothing to loose. RFK 2024!
Just the independent vote 🤡
He's an anti-vaxxer. No thanks.
Do you realize how unique this campaign is in history. The conditions of our corrupt two party system. America needs Kennedy for his knowledge, integrity and problem solving skills.president RFK 2024.
Is 538 just not doing long-form podcasts on CZcams anymore?
Depending on the segments, they'll cut them up. It also happens more during election years or closer to elections.
@@swiftflight7927 id get if they didnt film video but they clearly did for this one,
@@swiftflight7927 Yeah I don't think that's what this is. Hasn't been a long form video in over a week where we got about 2 a week before that.
@@WarMonkeyPlays my statement isn't disproven by what you said
@@swiftflight7927 strictly speaking, my comment doesn't attempt to disprove your comment. Your statement can both be true and also not apply to this situation. However, my statement goes even further by addressing itself as speculation: "I don't _think_ that's what this is". And for what's it's worth, the factual bits of my statement aren't disproven by what you said. 😎
I don't really use Spotify, and I'd light myself on fire before I used anything Apple. Hoping the full episodes come back.
Apple Music is brilliant
Apple tv has some great shows, if you're weary of Netflix
Same
Please please. Kennedy is our only hope of a United States of America again. Please spread his message
What is this nonsense. Where's the actual podcast? I'm not scanning a qr code to just get something that has been here reliably for ages.
Or look at it as a blessing in disguise. The first ~90 seconds were the only part of it that had value anyway! No download needed!
Bill Maher did the same BS with RFK, Jr.
#Kennedy24 🇺🇸
RFK all the way.
Rfk Jr 🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸
Actually RFK is the best candidate IMHO. I very much like what he has to say. Very cogent with lots of sensible policies. Also, as we all know, he’s basically running against two idiots.
Well said.
it doesn't matter he is unelectable.
Let’s go Bobby!! 🇺🇸🇺🇸
R. F. K. 24
Glad I’m not the only one in comments bothered by only getting small clips.
With sadness, I have deleted 538 from my CZcams subscriptions -- will reinstate 538 when it returns to the normal length vids. I hope that other people also delete 538 from their subscriptions in order to send a message to 538. These guys analyze numbers, right?
Done!
I'm giving them a little bit more of a grace period, but yes - I fully intend on unsubbing if this is what we're getting from here on out.
Thanks, David!@@davidannett1616
@WarMonkeyPlaHowever, if they notice a downturn in the numbers, they might possibly do something, perhaps.
@@daviddyerlawson6100 Agreed, and they already are experiencing that from what I can tell. The bi-weekly long videos were getting about 30k to 40k views. Last week, the short-form videos only generated about 18k (ish - I forgot my total). Worth noting it's 1) a stupidly small sample size for the timeframe, and 2) the long form videos have the benefit of longevity (this is mitigated unless one of the videos "blew up" some time after posting), but that difference _is_ noticeable.
The data is on his campaign website. Obviously you didn’t look that hard.
Yes exactly. That's why I feel like this clip is propaganda.
Propagandists don’t research
Clearly. I found over a hundred pages of data from Zogby.
2024 Slogan: "MAKE AMERICA DECENT AGAIN, RFK ALL The Way...! "
This commentary is just sad.....
You guys sound really jerky and arrogant.
Bought and paid
Why do you guys bother making a video if you only post the audio outside of these 3 minute clips
Biden should spare us the hassle and drop out now.
RFKJ has my vote!!!
RFKJ all the way! 2024 🇺🇲
RFK ALL THE WAY!!!
I have been watching these podcasts religiously on CZcams on my TV since they started. I much prefer watching them while sitting on my couch than listening in my car, as I don't have a long commute anymore. Please bring back the full CZcams versions!!
Kennedy for our republic! 🦅🇺🇸
I will be voting Kennedy, by far the best candidate I’ve had in my lifetime
it's a very creative use of polling. if the methodology were made available then that'd be even better
It's on RFK Jr.'s website.
Zogby is the most accurate polling agency in the Nation. Only one that predicted the possibility of a Trump victory in 2016.
It is. On the TeamKennedy24 website.
yeah this is a no go, put the whole thing on here or it doesnt exist
It was a fantastic campaign stunt. I loved it.
I wouldn't call it a "stunt". Biden is clearly the "spoiler" and should either yield to Kamala, or drop out.
❤RFK = POTUS 24❤NICOLE SHANAHAN VP ❤🎉
Can we get a short video explaining why the format is changing? There are many of us who enjoyed the previous format and don’t understand the reasons for the change.
i think it's prob their corporate overlords at ABC
@@nicebluejay Yep. I love how Kennedy is forcing everyone to show their true colors. Bought and Sold.
@@tobetheanswer this has been common knowledge for decades. i am not gonna waste my vote on rfk like i did on nader in 2000, which helped get bush elected. we could have avoided wars because of that mistake. not everything about our forced binary choice is inconsequential.
RFK 2024
RFKENNEDY IS TUE BEST REPRESENTATION for veterans and Americans
YES YES YES
RFKJ ALL THE WAY!!! 🇺🇲❤️🇺🇲
This will be one if those clips included in the compilation when RFK wins & they'll all be 'how did we not see this coming'
Same thing happened in 2016 with Zogby being the best pollster in the Nation.
Why even bother staying subbed, if all we're going to get is worthless clips? Bring back full episodes!
I have cancelled my subscription; will reinstate if they reverse their policy.
RFK ALL THE WAY!
RFK..
lets go RFK!! been following his environmental activism for years
Please reinstate the full podcast on CZcams
⚠️First, the 3 runners need to stay alive before the elections.😒
Omfg 😂😂😂😂😂😂😂lmao
Good thing Kennedy is in really good shape for his age. He’ll outlive both of them
@@turtledog5050 he’s still trash
Typically, I don't vote, but this year I am voting for Kennedy. Why? because he is the only candidate proposing real solutions to many problems that all Americans have to deal with.
Also, I think you really gotta have your head stuck up somewhere if you think RFK is only using his last name or "other" as his main talking points lmao you clearly haven't listened to ANY of his campaign. Kennedy has proposed dozens of solutions for Americans.
So, you typically don't vote, and this year you're not voting but with extra steps?
Hey, at least you'll get a sticker!
@@NotCapitalist As Kennedy travels the country, Americans are finding out that he is way better than trump or biden lol. That's why his polling keeps going up and he keeps getting on more ballots. Don't be surprised when you end up like those poor folks back in 2016
@@NotCapitalist lol, that sticker tho!!!
@@NotCapitalist The only way to guaranteee your vote counts for sh*t is to vote red/blue.
@@NotCapitalist The only way to guarantee your vote means nothing is to vote red or blue.
We need full video episodes on YT, thanks
❤❤❤Vote Mr. Rfk jr.024.
I'm fine* heading over to Spotify, but it's weird to not indicate in any way here what the deal with the change is.
What happened to the pre-pod open? Was the footage for this episode busted? Are y'all trying to platform-consolidate viewing numbers to gain traction? Is this a permanent thing or a one-off?
Former lifelong Dem of nearly 40 years. Former staffer to 2 state reps. Former Biden voter. Both parties sell us out to the same corporate interests and expect us to tear each other apart over issues they won't fix to distract us while they do it. I don't plan to vote for a party candidate ever again. Kennedy24
As long as you're comfortable with your vote not mattering ever again, rock on
@@NotCapitalist About 3 years ago I told myself I was never going to vote again. No point when both serve the same masters. The way I see it, voting red/blue is the only way to guarantee my vote doesn't count. Kennedy has way more of a chance than anyone realizes at this stage. If it's the last time I ever vote, so be it.
Exactly Aaron. That's how we all feel. But we've all been too scared to take a chance. That's why rfkjr is doing everything he can to make us feel safe to vote for good. Hence this pole and pledge. 🙏✊️✌️
@@Aaron-zf4xw he won't be on all the ballots so that's the issue, everyone overlooks the ballot access issue.
@@nicebluejay He'll be on the ballot in all 50 states and D.C.
Pro Choice! Pro vax! Pro Gaza! Pro Kennedy!
Far more than "other" and having a famous last name. Just listen to the dude speak in any interview about anything. Miles beyond the competition, bud.
What's funny to me is the smarmy reaction from the 4, 20 something year old panelists who believe they are "experts".
Really disappointed that we won’t get the full length video versions of these podcasts anymore. I love you guys so much and watching you talk is a significantly better experience than just listening. This makes me sad
He'll beat both uniparty failures.
This channel feels like it fits the catagory of “other” with that kinda of mindset.
This was just a stub?? Lame
RFKJ all the way! For the unity of our nation and the betterment of the working class we need Bobby Kennedy!
KENNEDY 2024
While NEVER underestimate usual «American idiot in a nation controlled by media!», however may suggest best political sentence ever quoted:
«We, the people, are the boss, & we will get the kind of political leadership, be it good or bad, that we demand & deserve!» [John Fitzgerald Kennedy - "Annual convention of American Association of School Administrators & National School Board Association" (Atlantic City - February 19th, 1957)]
PS - Since now to election-day: “All the way with RFK!"✌🧠NEVER in fact forget:
«When a man cannot choose, he ceases to be a man!» [Anthony Burgess - “A Clockwork Orange” (UK-1962)]
I choose Kennedy in 2024. (He/Him).
I guess they neglected to watch the video explaining how the poll was conducted. They say "bad use of polling". I say, "bad researchers".
Pathetic that people pretend/imply they can't look at the candidate's website or google "details of zogby 50-state poll". Brings up a 153-page document with details on the poll in question.
TOTALLY transparent. I love the Kennedy campaign. This movement is changing the political landscape in the United States for generations. Federal Ranked Choice Voting NOW!
@@tobetheanswer Yup. Kennedy is the leading candidate on a Ranked Choice Voting basis.
Only Fear can keep Kennedy from winning the Presidence. But fear is a potent and often-wielded weapon.
When you click on the Apple link this episode isn't there. Please upload the episode to youtube as usual. This is nerv-wercking and generates a lot of bad will.... First Nat Silver quit and now you can't even listen to the podcast on youtube (or anywhere!). Please stop getting worse!
You forgot the re-direction from the website to the trashy looking ABC site (horrible to navigate) which doesn't even have the models on it.
0% chance I’m downloading the full episode. We had a good run
What, a polling group discrediting a mother poll, what a joke. Lol
It's easy to find all the data on the poll it's on wikipedia and there was a link provided. It's the best poll that has been done this whole time. It breaks it down by state and every other stat. They also polled 26,000 people which is about 10 times the average amount. This was a far better poll than any 538 poll that excludes the data that fits their narrative.
That is the dumbest thing I've ever probably heard
The podcast or the poll?
@@turtledog5050 both
How to lose what’s left of your viewers: Make it harder to access your content. 💀
This is so dumb. One of the things I liked about FiveThirtyEight on CZcams is seeing Galen and his guests. You can't do that on Spotify or Apple Podcast. Thanks a lot ABC. Way to alienate loyal viewers😞
Like the Kraft man, bring a lot of credibility to this
Always loved 538 but it's hard watching you say things like "RFK's case for more votes isn't credible" (Skelley). You definitely sound more "elite" than ever to me, and that's not a good thing.
I used to watch and listen on here every episode... what's with the last week? I'll be unsubscribing since the content is gone (hopefully just for now) - this was my favorit podcast!
Kennedy 2024🇺🇸❤️
The only reason I like RFK Jr is that he’s not a populist nut job like trump. The bar has been set so low. 😮
As much i'm appreciate him, no one will vote to a conspiracy theorist he's need step up and find succesor who could follow the candidature
These guys are such smug BNMW toadies. Painful.
Y’all are full of BS
What a waste of ear time. The choice is clear: “dawdling old man incapable of stringing 2 sentences together, whose guilty of crimes he hasn’t been caught at yet. Or, a narcissistic, philandering, sociopathic liar, who’s a danger to himself, as well as anything else that walks the earth.
RFK🎉❤
RFK RFK RFK RFK!!!!!!
These idiots have the data from this poll on the 538 website but they say they can't find it lol. Yeah sure guys.
Tin foil hats must be worn to keep a straight face.
These people are making what amount to ad hominem attacks against RFK, Jr. and the poll (if that is possible). It is fair to say that nee needs to see all the details of a poll's methodology before evaluating it, it is another thing to say that the concept of using a poll such as this to address the most widespread and potentially valid criticism of his being in the race at all (in a creative and powerful way) exposes the baldface bias of this podcast. Shame on you. You have no clothes.
❤vote for Robert🤍F Kennedy Jr💙2024 President 🇺🇸
I’m sure all of you thought it was impossible for Trump to beat Hillary. You are again out of touch with what really goes on. Rfk jr will keep on rising. He is no joke. You’re falling in the Trump/trap again
Rubbish 😂
Thank you for the clicks and comments. It helps Bobby. Come back tomorrow. Thanx again.
I think this guy had falling down too much and bumped his head. The only way he's going to beat Trump is if Trump is not running and then it's still questionable. ...hahaha
Can't wait for Trump to pick Tulsi Gabbard. Check mate! RFK, Jr. wins either way... I love it when strategy and intelligence come together.
Terrible takes from all of you, he does a much more comprehensive poll then any of the other camps or media outlets and he isn't just "other" he is rfk and he already has 70 percent of the independent vote which is now the biggest pool of voters in the country and has the majority of the vote of all voters under the agev of 40, shame on all of you
what planet is rfk on? he won't even be on half the ballots.
He will be on every ballot. Watch him!
@@ursashaw4806 literally impossible at this point
@@nicebluejay NY is the hardest state to get on the ballot outside of the 2 powerful party's. 45,000 signatures in 45 days is their rule. We already have double that and a few weeks left to go!!!
Every state and D.C. - It won't be a problem
@@Aaron-zf4xw source?