LIVE LONGSHOTS! - 2024 Kentucky Derby - Who are some Longshots to help you get paid?!
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- čas přidán 21. 04. 2024
- 🏇 Exploring the LIVE Longshots of the 2024 Kentucky Derby 🌹
While the favorites like Fierceness, Forever Young, and Sierra Leone are catching all the headlines, there's value to be found beyond them. In this special Kentucky Derby edition, Jonathon Kinchen (JK) and Peter Thomas Fornatale (PTF) from In The Money Media delve into some enticing longshots that could boost your betting payoffs on the First Saturday in May.
Discover potential dark horses with double-digit odds that might just outperform expectations. JK and PTF break down their form, strategies, and why these underdogs could make a big splash at Churchill Downs.
🔔 Subscribe to our channel and follow us to catch all our Kentucky Derby coverage leading up to the thrilling Run for the Roses. Don’t miss out on expert insights that could help you get paid!
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I enjoy your shows so much that I can listen ENDLESSLY.
Thanks!
I'm counting on a bounce from Fierceness after that Fl. Derby, so im boxing 5 in a superfecta Just Steel, Track Phantom, Resilience, Sierra Leone, Honor Marie! Right on guys 👍 Good luck Derby Day!
If Rich Strike can win the KY Derby anything can happen. On paper really had no shot. Horses can improve drastically going into the Derby and vice versa.
Actually he did...he had an incredible race over the track(won by 16 lengths)...didn't love him, but he did have something to go on.
Currently here in Vegas, Just a Touch is 28/1 at Circa and 20/1 at William Hill.
I have a definite crush on Resilience, who I hope is ready to pop. A higher Beyer at the Derby distance, coupled with a lower Beyer by the top two or three contenders-to say nothing of possible gate, traffic, and other problems-could spell a good finish by a horse like this who travels from just off the pace. Who knows? The Derby is such a crap shoot, I think a bet across the board on Resilience might be worth it. Thanks for your excellent coverage.
Thank YOU for commenting. He's got to get faster but he is sure as heck in the right hands. Holler at us if you have any Derby questions.
I also like Endlessly has a great burst of speed when asked, he needs to sit mid pack and might get the jump on the deeper closers, reminds me a bit of Animal Kingdom who i also liked and played him to win the Derby, both bread for turf but did well on poly and carried that form over to the dirt.
JK made a good case I thought. I am worried about the owner-picked-spot thing. Hopefully we get a chance to chat with Michael McCarthy on these airwaves soon.
My buddy is trying to talk me off this horse. He insists in looking at his workouts, that you can see he doesnt like the dirt, and that kind of jives with the trainers opinion of Endlessly's workouts as well. Clearly if it was up to McCarthy, this horse would be running in the turf instead of the Derby, so while theres something about this horse that makes me give him a BIG shot, my common sense is that the trainer of the horse himself, is telling us not to get our hopes up.
McCarthy does seem humble though, and this horse has a fairy tale plot written for him if he does win, so who knows. I dont think im playing him on top, which means GO BET IT TWO FISTS!
@@chocolatetownforever7537 lol I'm also talking myself off of him, i gotta at least put $2 across on him in case he wins I don't look like a total jackass
FIERCENESS at the start of the race with the extra ground to get to the first turn, should be in perfect position with his speed to have no traffic. The two time graded 1 winner will out class this field. Sierra Leone and Encino will fight it out for 2nd and 3rd..... honor Marie possibly 3rd but 4th to finish out the superfecta
That's a ticket that will be in my portfolio.
You mean like he did in the Holy Bull? Too much pressure from this hearty field to get the pace he needs to hold off S. Leonne, Encino, etc....
@@steeloned in the Holy Bull he was off 3 months, went wide and pinched....
The turn was not far from the starting gate. Doesn't need the lead, needs to stalk. Sierra Leone is a good horse, may even win. Let's see if SL can stay away from traffic. It's your money, you do as you see fit. Bet the house on Fierceness!!🤑
@@Chez2424
Well, I like my futures' chances anyway, including $10 on SL @10-1. He doesn't run in traffic, he just runs around it.
Honor Marie….Book It🏇🏇🏇🏇🏇🏇🏇
catching freedom will be there !
Your shows make me feel forever young.
Don’t grow old on forever young .
As in never happen . 😮
Don't leave Catching Freedom off of your supers.
Great shot to win the race
Yeah, he makes a ton of sense. Not a big enough price to be included in this vid I don't think but he's live and not that many people are talking about him. If I like HM, how can I not like him to come with? Other than price I suppose. . .
No mention of Domestic Product, he's my pick and irad on top which I didn't want, going to drop his odds. I would have rather Manny but irad will get his first derby, Common Domestic product
I agree with Honor Marie @24/1 and Just A Touch @14/1. I will add Catching Freedom @11/1 and Resilience @29/1 in my 4 horse exacta box of value.
*I'm guestimating post time odds here.
And down the stretch they come!
Thanks for listening and commenting
You guys make good points and yeah just a touch looks like the best of the three! I think Encino might have a chance too if he runs in the race, and I'm hoping deterministic runs too only because I have a couple nice future bets on each of them!
Thanks, Stephen, Sounds like Deterministic is officially out of consideration. He's an interesting Peter Pan - Belmont type tho potentially. Tonalist 2.0?
Smart Strike has shown up in a lot of horses pedigrees that have won or hit the board in KD. Honor Marie and Resilience are must uses in tri's and supers
That's my play too! Smart Strike bloodlines.
Half brother to Just a Touch… Just Steel!!
They consider it 1/4 brother when it's same daddy...1/2 brother when it's same mother
@@marklewen9384 quarter of what you said makes half sense, but either way thanks and the Derby will be interesting
@@worstofwhiskey great to be condescending when youre really ignorant...sorry if the FACTS get in the way of your stupidity.
Saludos, los longshots que veo para el Kentucky Derby son: A ganar Just Steel y Resiliencia.
Para super sorpresa a tercero sería ( West Saratoga y Encino);
A ganar tengo dos favoritos: Fierceness y Catching Freedom!!
In everyday racing ill agree with favorites and second choices doing well. In the Kentucky Derby with 20 horses anything could happen. Many times first and second choices do not win in the Kentucky Derby. Something usually happens, bad trips or starts. We have all seen it happens before. The 17 could bounce, the 2 might get loose too late and can't weave his way thru 19 other horses. Wish more people with these videos would stop backing the chalk.
My price horse is Domestic Product. Should be positioned mid-pack and should get the 10 furlongs.
Thanks for watching, Jay! I wish he'd run a little faster but I can see it if I squint.
THE OTHER CHAD!
@@ptfornatale I’m squinting too. Always looking for chinks in the favs and a nice price. I did cash a 2 Double with the other, other, other Chad along with my Encino pick 😀
For me I really like Just A Touch. I got the feeling he didn't realize in the past race the other horse was out there at the end of the race and let up.
great show im waiting on the draw
#kyjoe likes: Just a Touch, Dornoch, Forever Young, Catching Freedom as his Superfecta!!! We Finally Agree on a Race @UTBigHair!!! You are a Great Handicapper!!! #kyjoe
This may be the first case I've heard for Endlessly to run well... interesting.
Hoping to snag McCarthy for a chat on here
@@InTheMoneyMediaNetwork that would be great!
Mr P and Northern Dancer, Endlessly is a turf horse?
Domestic product with the great irad ortiz jr.
He's interesting! I worry that he hasn't run fast enough but if the big guns don't show up, who knows? What price do you think he'll be?
In his defense the last few races espically the tampa bay derby they were going slow up front so for him to win coming from off the pace show's he's got some ability, Chad brown his trainer said that he thinks that the derby will have some pace up front and if that pace is hot and those horses tire out that domestic product should have a good chance, he's a lightly raced horse who's getting better at the right time and will get the derby distance plus he gets the best jockey in the world as far as odds go I think probably around 18-1 it's the derby so you never know what's could happen just hoping irad gets his first derby win
DOMESTIC PRODUCT (DOB February 22nd)
The captioned colt is a serious longshot and really shouldn't be one.
10/27/23 - MSW (BAB) 9F - 1st by 4 1/2L in 1:50.97
Final time, good enough to win 5 of the last 10 Remsen.
12/02/23 - Remsen (BAB) 9F - 7th by 16 1/4L; Final time 1:50.30
Given his margin of defeat, DP's final time would have been in the high 1:53 or low 1:54. The colt clearly didn't reproduce his maiden breaker performance. Was his poor performance due to the significantly faster pace or the sloppy/sealed track? Probably a combination of the two.
02/03/24 - Holy Bull (GP) 8 1/2F - 3rd by 2L; Final time 1:46.07
The time between DP's maiden breaker and the Holy Bull was 98 days. The final 16th of the Holy Bull was completed in 6.79. Let's assumed that pace could have been maintained for an additional 16th. A final time for 9F would have been 1:52.86. That would be way off the colt's 1:50.97 maiden breaker over the distance, whilst being 3 months older. it is unlikely DP regressed.
03/08/24 - Tampa Bay Derby (TBP) 8 1/2F - 1st by NS; Final time1:45.47
The time between DP's maiden breaker and the Tampa Bay Derby was 132 days. The final 16th of the Holy Bull was completed in 6.11. Ler's assumed that pace could have been maintained for an additional 16th. A final time for 9F would have been 1:51.58. That would be slower than the colt's 1:50.97 maiden breaker over the distance, whilst being 4 months plus older.
Domestic Product is clearly significantly better than his Holy Bull and Tampa Bay Derby numbers. It has been a little over 6 months since he recorded 1:50.97 over 9F. His two 3YOP stats are reflecting regression. He was assigned an Equibase figure of 82 for his TBD win. His Equibase figure for his maiden breaker was 88.
It is unlikely that a colt that records a 2nd & 1st place finish, in two G2 as a 3YO has regressed. Domestic Product PPs does no justice to his ability. His 3YO figures make absolutely no sense on paper.
The colt has been training pleasingly in Florida with his last work impressing his handlers. He has excellent gate and tactical speed and will be forwardly placed. He possesses the stamina to stay 10F effectively. His stride mechanics reflect no wasted motion, and he has excellent stride extension.
This colt should be considered a serious KD entrant. It could be a CHAD BROWN EXACTA.
FIERCENESS RUNS HIS RACE OVER. LS STRONGHOLD HUGE FAVORITE WHEN BEAT TRACK PHANTOM AND RESILIENCE.
WHAT WOULD IMAGINATIONS ODDS BE IF IN.
Since you're talking longshots: judging from the work on 4/21, Asmussen has the screws tightened on Track Phantom. Can he go this far? To quote Jim Quinn, "Nobody knows which of these 3yo's want to go this far."I like his fig progression, especially with the new lifetime top.Unbelievably Asmussen hasn't won a Derby.
Sierra Leone
Longshots (> 20-1) so far: Mystik Dan, Just Steel, Resilience, Encino.
Word on the street is Encino will scratch from the Derby and point for The Preakness.
Mystik Dan is one of three to run a triple digit fig (if you count Forever Young) so I have some sympathy for that opinion, if not for the devil.
Punxsutawney Phil is that you ?? 😮
Wow,,
Stronghold my pick
endlessly in the turf mile would be a good single pick
Rich strike actually had the numbers
Best Beyer?
Does the inexperience of Ben Curtis or the fact that FG horses don't stack up with the other top contenders on speed figs this year worry you?
Domestic Product @ 26-1 is fat.I'd bet the Chad and Irad combo(unbelievably neither has won a Derby)at that price, even if the horse had only 3 legs.
Good call
To password n forever young will hit the board
Prediction: Just a Touch goes off at less than 10-1. The general public is going to bet this horse down.
Like all 3 underneath Forever Young 💰
I almost put FY in the video but internationally he's only 8-1 so I decided that wasn't enough of a longshot to use for this vid. He's intriguing.
Used to respect Jk s opinion but he keeps on picking favorites, so , just check the ML an you re very likely apt to find hi major pick! There are so many days left and who knows how the track variants are going to be on that Saturday ? For closers or front runners ? How will the race pace go besides Fierceness going to the front ? Alone or with rabbit company ? After checking the PPs on that Saturday, I will make my # picks. No money for " guaranteed" bs. One thing will be certain,Repole s horse will get overbet, but, with whom behind him ? Ah, that is the important question !... If you won't get the exacta, at least , you won't make any $$$ !😮
LOL...JK just talked about two longshots, sooo.....
Track variants have nothing to do with closers or front runners.
Fierceness doesnt need the lead and likely wont get it with a no-hope'er trying to steal the race.
Who would his rabbit be?
We didnt guarantee anything.
LONGSHOT THE "MO" HORSE ACCORDING TO LADY ALEX...
i was going through the race over the last ten years and was surprised to see horses who were drawn between stalls 5 to 9 made the first three 15 times out of 30 including 6 out of the 10 winners it will be interesting to see if that holds up because the previous ten years only seven were placed with two winners but those winners were drawn 8 and draw 8 won three times in the last ten years so even over twenty years stall 8 won a quarter of the races and stall 15 has won three stall 16 won two so just blind picking 8 15 or 16 would have found the winner half the time over the last twenty year. those numbers are as they finished in the race not counting disqualifications
I'll take Encino all day o er endlessly
Better pedigree
Better speed numbers
People keep saying two phils...
He had a lot of dirt experience
And there are many horse in here that will be running late that I like better
JMO
30/1? Because International Book Makers Don’t Know The US Horses As Well...
Encino. Is a Lock. 😂
I think 2 horses that finish in the Top 3 will be pretty short prices. No more then 8-1. I wouldnt be surprised if a Horse like T O Password at something like 87-1 to finish in top 4. It's just usually weird like that.
I do like all 3 choices for Longshots especially Honor Marie.
I had Mage last year pays usually well derby
TO would like up the board like a Christmas lawn in Bay Ridge! I can't quite see it but stranger things have happened.
YOU FORGOT BARBARO. HE WON ON BOTH DIRT AND TURF...
Nobody talking bout Assmussen horse,
Shouldn’t Mage & Justify Tell You Seasoning Is A Thing Of The Past?
Just Steel, domestic product, honor marie, n the mo horse, leone wins, fierceness doesnt hit the board $$$$$
wow, no fierceness
mystic dan
??
Not a fan. I think his big race was bias aided
Ever wonder the look at the type of people you'll see at the track? Look No further
If the track comes up sloppy Endlessly
I Love Honor Marie to win
Then love is truly blind..
Common guy’s, don’t pick too much horses. It’s spends you a lot of money, you need to be smart. I will give you a horse, consider looking a triple digit Beyer. Like fierceness 110 sierra Leon 105 forever young 102 this 3 horses have a good stamina too. They are really hard to beat believe me, as long as they are not changed their condition to run. Specially sierra Leon this horse have the ability charge really fast on the stretch (dangerous) forever young and fierceness this horses are tested already. Remember always dreaming before? Same jockey same trainer right? Experience already. And chad brown he’s hungry for winning a derby. That Japanese horse? Tested already, be smart and good luck 😜
Honor Marie is a Smaller Athletic Type that Moves Up way more at CD than any other by far. NEED a NAME Grade 1 experienced rider instead of a middle aged rider that hasn't even WON a 100 races in his entire 3 year Career before much less the😅 World's #1 Prestigious Race sge by Far that has+20 horses to
Catalytic is my Longshot DeLuxe... Made his two-turn debut in a million dollar Grade I and completed the exacta and you bet Saffie Joseph has a chip on his shoulder from what Churchill did to him last year imho.
The other Chad Brown....
Lets talk long shots....DOMESTIC PRODUCT UNDEFEATED WITH THE BEST JOCKEY ON THE PLANET ON ITS BACK..#15 FOR 200 ALEX!!!!!!$$$$$$
CF JAT SL CF in the win slot Fla Derby winner I'm tossing he will be co chalk with SL but I have SL rated higher SL a legit threat dangerous but he's not the only powerful closer in the field vitamin water guru gets blanked again in the Derby sorry Mike
McCarthy doesn’t even want to run Endlessly on dirt from the way it sounds.
I like Endlessly, but his last work at Churchill was terrible. Looks like he's not made for dirt.
he needs lawn
They should put him in the American Turf
I really want to see what MM has to say -- it did sound at first like the Am Turf was his preference.
JK, The Horse I’m Afraid Of Is Honor Marie, And For A Very Strange Reason, I’m Asking Myself Why Did They Name This Colt With A Filly’s Name, So I’m Wondering Is This A LBGQ Hidden Agenda, And Having This Colt With A Filly’s Name Winning One Of The Most Prestigious Races In America’s Racing History, And For This I’m Going To Couple Fierceness & Honoring Ms, Marie,,The Straight & The Bi-Sexual Exacta In The Kentucky Derby,,,,Ps,, It’s All About Making The Money,,,,🏰🇺🇸🇯🇲 Mr. KeenObserVatioN PhD,🇯🇲🇺🇸🏰
There's one HUGE MISCONCEPTION one of you have about owners. NO OWNER enters any horse in any race. And NO owner EVER wanted to waste a horse's effort and both lose money and humiliate himself. It's only the trainers who would ever put a colt in the Derby when he knew it was in over his head. No one can name any owners, but everyone remembers the name of the trainer. Trainers get the limelight. In most stables, the owner is also one of the grooms. I realize that Derby colts have owners who are richer, but not one owner ever got away with telling any trainer what to do.
Completely wrong. Owners pick spots all the time. Especially in the Derby.
Stop talking
@@InTheMoneyMediaNetwork You clearly don't know what you're talking about. I was an owner and groom for 10 years, and worked at tracks for over 40 years. Owners do not have any say in entering horses in races. Trainers do that, and no owner ever wanted to lose money and no owner ever wanted to look like a fool in a big race. Just because you want to believe in a delusion, that won't make a delusion true.
@@FrankCarolei-lv6rb What are you babbling about? I'll stop talking when I stop talking.
So did Muth's owner go to court to get Muth in the Derby, because Bob Baffert told him to do it? You may have tons of experience and may have a point in what you're saying, but talking about anything in such absolutes is usually incorrect.
JK, You’re Talking About The Kentucky Derby Which Michael McCarthy As Never Won And The Kentucky Derby Isn’t The Average Race, So Whatever McCarthy Did In Those Average Races Absolutely Doesn’t Count When It Comes To The Kentucky Derby, Straight And Plain, So To Trust Him In The Derby Is Purely Blind Hope, Because He Has No Kentucky Derby Winning Experience,,,,Ps,, And I’m Not Debunking What You’re Saying But I’m Only Stating Facts Over Sentiments,,,,🏰🇺🇸🇯🇲 Mr. KeenObserVatioN PhD,🇯🇲🇺🇸🏰